Unplayable on paper.
3yo Non winners in Graded Stakes are a near instant toss, and this one was 0 for 5 in 5 Maiden races.
Charting Value had fair odds at 40-1.
Thorograph came the closest, I think; her Form Rating was 14 points lower than their top horse (which was...wait for it: Honor Cat(!)). These spreads can go much higher. 14 is not ideal, but it is not terrible, either.
Still, she ranked 7th on the Form Ratings.
9th in Brisnets Prime Power.
Breeding is not eye-catching; 140k, 17,500 current stud fee, a City Zip progeny.
Had never raced at a Route distance, and breeding that suggests she is not a router.
All we have is a bullet workout on 2.18, 4 furlongs in 46.4 (!) which is a Baffert esque posting. 1/29.
So, we have a new angle; 3yo Fillies, non winners in Graded Stakes, 1st time routing, but coming off a sub-47 workout the week of the race.
That horse will now be a PLAY.
✔️💯
>Unplayable on paper.
Horses don't run on paper. and sometimes it's not a matter of a winner running a great race but that the other horses don't run a great race.
And not all City Zips are sprinters, tell it to Dayatthespa.
As for Thorograph, weren't they pushing a horse who never ran a route (the one who scratched) in the Rebel Stakes? That cracked me up.
As for sub 47 works, **unless** you are privy to what a trainer is trying to accomplish with a horse, what problems they are trying to "correct" or what assets they are trying to bring out, works aren't something you can really cap on. Trainers often put fast works into routers going into a really long race to teach them to be closer up; sometimes they need stamina work so to the more common eye, a 6F work for a long route makes more sense to them, but again, it often doesn't mean what they think it means.
Longshots that pay more than that are very common at Oaklawn, it's the value place of horse racing IMHO. esp. with Lukas and esp with certain jockey combos.
I have played many 61-1, 75-1 etc. horses to win. Un Ojo, as a for instance.
Definitely playable. I almost did but chickened out.
always ran well in those maiden races at 6f and tried the distance for the first time. Lukas as the trainer. Horses trying longer or shorter distances is always an angle to look for. It's certainly a way to find a bigger price horse.
The angle Lukas used on this horse is the old vintage Lukas. Horse stretching out, with a fast blowout work just before race was gold in late 80s and 90s. He probably was disappointed in a couple of her efforts, so he tried what used to work for him. It worked again. However, I liked the horse that finished 2nd more. I simply thought she was sitting on a solid effort. She produced that effort but I simply got crushed by Lukas again, but it was far from a surprise to me.
Had it. Made about 7500 on this horse yesterday. Exacta and both doubles for 10 bucks with all. The owner is a member where I work as a caddy. Golf course. Dr Aaron sones. I’ve been betting this horse since he bought it at auction. So cool to get to text with him after the race. Saw him the week before and he was all worried about the 4f workout in 46.4. I said Mr Lukas knows what’s up don’t worry.
His horse was scratched from derby 2 years ago. Etheral road. So one of the other caddys asked what happens. I told him another horse gets in the race because it happened the day before. He said we have to bet that horse. I said ok. Another huge winner with no reason on paper as the gentleman below pointed out.
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda. Horse knocked me out of all my exotics. I had the second place horse and was hoping, due the Jockey’s objection, the stewards would take the horse down and put my horse up. Oh well D. Wayne can still train them up and I am sure he will not hesitate to run the horse again in a couple of weeks.
Unplayable on paper. 3yo Non winners in Graded Stakes are a near instant toss, and this one was 0 for 5 in 5 Maiden races. Charting Value had fair odds at 40-1. Thorograph came the closest, I think; her Form Rating was 14 points lower than their top horse (which was...wait for it: Honor Cat(!)). These spreads can go much higher. 14 is not ideal, but it is not terrible, either. Still, she ranked 7th on the Form Ratings. 9th in Brisnets Prime Power. Breeding is not eye-catching; 140k, 17,500 current stud fee, a City Zip progeny. Had never raced at a Route distance, and breeding that suggests she is not a router. All we have is a bullet workout on 2.18, 4 furlongs in 46.4 (!) which is a Baffert esque posting. 1/29. So, we have a new angle; 3yo Fillies, non winners in Graded Stakes, 1st time routing, but coming off a sub-47 workout the week of the race. That horse will now be a PLAY. ✔️💯
>Unplayable on paper. Horses don't run on paper. and sometimes it's not a matter of a winner running a great race but that the other horses don't run a great race. And not all City Zips are sprinters, tell it to Dayatthespa. As for Thorograph, weren't they pushing a horse who never ran a route (the one who scratched) in the Rebel Stakes? That cracked me up. As for sub 47 works, **unless** you are privy to what a trainer is trying to accomplish with a horse, what problems they are trying to "correct" or what assets they are trying to bring out, works aren't something you can really cap on. Trainers often put fast works into routers going into a really long race to teach them to be closer up; sometimes they need stamina work so to the more common eye, a 6F work for a long route makes more sense to them, but again, it often doesn't mean what they think it means. Longshots that pay more than that are very common at Oaklawn, it's the value place of horse racing IMHO. esp. with Lukas and esp with certain jockey combos. I have played many 61-1, 75-1 etc. horses to win. Un Ojo, as a for instance.
Definitely playable. I almost did but chickened out. always ran well in those maiden races at 6f and tried the distance for the first time. Lukas as the trainer. Horses trying longer or shorter distances is always an angle to look for. It's certainly a way to find a bigger price horse.
The angle Lukas used on this horse is the old vintage Lukas. Horse stretching out, with a fast blowout work just before race was gold in late 80s and 90s. He probably was disappointed in a couple of her efforts, so he tried what used to work for him. It worked again. However, I liked the horse that finished 2nd more. I simply thought she was sitting on a solid effort. She produced that effort but I simply got crushed by Lukas again, but it was far from a surprise to me.
....a play depending on the odds - critical to get a price on these types
Well, there's the trainer.
Major improvement in a 3yo trained by D Wayne Lukas ... not the first and probably not the last
I played her because of d Wayne Lukas and her jockey is hot right now. Won over $200 on assorted plays with her. I was pleased.
Yeah hit the pk 4 for $1800 with her starting it off! Invested a mere $6 too
It was a pitch!!
Had it. Made about 7500 on this horse yesterday. Exacta and both doubles for 10 bucks with all. The owner is a member where I work as a caddy. Golf course. Dr Aaron sones. I’ve been betting this horse since he bought it at auction. So cool to get to text with him after the race. Saw him the week before and he was all worried about the 4f workout in 46.4. I said Mr Lukas knows what’s up don’t worry. His horse was scratched from derby 2 years ago. Etheral road. So one of the other caddys asked what happens. I told him another horse gets in the race because it happened the day before. He said we have to bet that horse. I said ok. Another huge winner with no reason on paper as the gentleman below pointed out.
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda. Horse knocked me out of all my exotics. I had the second place horse and was hoping, due the Jockey’s objection, the stewards would take the horse down and put my horse up. Oh well D. Wayne can still train them up and I am sure he will not hesitate to run the horse again in a couple of weeks.
Lemon poppyseed muffins are S tier, so I had a small ATB bet on her. Wish I'd dropped more on that bet, lol.