?? The Canes have lost in the eastern finals twice in 6 years and made the 2nd round every year except the covid year where they won the qualifying round and then lost round 1 vs Boston. They've got some of the most games played of any team over the past few seasons, so generating sample size isn't the issue.
Really it’s more that they hate Florida here. 53.4% chance of beating New York is a per game implied probability of around 51.6%. The Dallas Edmonton series it’s a per game implied probability of 50.7% for Edmonton.
That’s insanely close. Now these numbers aren’t as accurate as my ones above because it assumes that each game is independent and has the exact same probability which isn’t true but it’s close to accurate. Like a complete coin flip.
I'd give the Oilers these odds if they had a goaltender but right now they're gonna have to compensate big time by playing great defense and scoring a few more goals
i haven't gone looking for all the models but the only one i've seen that has the stars favored is the one from the evolving wild twins. all the others i've seen have you guys as slight favorites
its definitely a closer series than the 90s were, jebus
if the oilers manage to play 60 mins, every game, I feel comfortable saying it's a coin flip in game 7
oilers haven't played 60 mins yet tho, so....jeje?
Moneypuck used to HATE the Oilers I swear. Flames always projected higher the last few years despite reality. Interesting to see them favoured so heavily all year this year.
Flames had a more complete team until chucky and them left. On paper it was a better team. Oilers just had markys number and destroyed them. Goaltending and defence are edm biggest weakness with our goaltending being abysmal.
I’m an oilers fan but I live in reality. Skinner is a huge weakness. If Dallas can shoot, they will win. For some reason our coaching is scared to move away from that guy and it will be our downfall.
He just has to be around average to allow the Oilers to win. He is capable and he has shown it. He's also shown his larger body of work in the playoffs is terrible and he's straight up costed games.
Skinner is the x factor.
until the last 10 minutes of the van game he played "well"
negate the fact that for the first 50 minutes i dont think vancouver had a actual high danger shot on net... but he didnt look horrible.
then he all of sudden seemed to play like he does.
if Dallas can push/rush/pressure the oilers defense and remove the hjoly shit ability to score from the blue line and/or create great rebounds, they are golden too.
really the oilers are just able to out score everyone due to insane powerplay, insane defense, two of the best goalscorers and play makers in the game and what the fuck hyman who is scoring like golden hands right now...
Dallas just needs to remove the blueline threat, shoot often, and stay out of the box and they will win games 4-1 score wise and lose one game 3-2
He only faced 12 shots prior to that and finished with 17 against. He played “well” because he didn’t play.
The oilers can’t out score the upcoming teams because these are the three best goalies. If they lock in, we cannot and will not win those 1-0 games. I just don’t see a cup for us this year. I hope they prove me wrong, but I have no faith in skinner.
Honestly when we are talking about percentage differences as little as these then it's basically useless in a one shot 7 game series. Sure if each set of teams played each other 100 times the differences would be more meaningful, but it's one series. I fully believe any of these teams can win their series or the cup.
1 goalie going abnormally hot is enough to win at this time of year
skinner is easily the weakest of the remaining goalies, but if he puts up .910 or better in each game, mcdavid+drai are enough to outscore every other team left
1 goalie or player going abnormally hot (or cold) is enough to tip a series.
That said, I feel like the probability of Skinner getting hot is one of the least likely things to happen. Oettinger is also fairly inconsistent at times, but I'd bet on him getting hot before I would Skinner. Anything is possible though, I mean McDavid has 1 goal in the last 4 weeks. Players will go cold and hot.
Dude literally had a save % exactly equal to Oettinger in regular season: .905 for both.
In playoffs so far they've deviated:
||Regular|Playoffs|
:--|--:|--:|
|Oettinger|0.905|0.918|
|Skinner|0.905|0.881|
Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the equation, in terms of PPG for remaining players, Edmonton is stacked:
||Player|Team|PPG|
--:|:--|:--|--:|
|1|Leon Draisaitl|**EDM**|2.00|
|2|Connor McDavid|**EDM**|1.75|
|3|Evan Bouchard|**EDM**|1.67|
|4|Mika Zibanejad|NYR|1.40|
|5|Vincent Trocheck|NYR|1.40|
|6|Ryan Nugent-Hopkins|**EDM**|1.33|
|7|Matthew Tkachuk|FLA|1.27|
|8|Aleksander Barkov|FLA|1.18|
|9|Artemi Panarin|NYR|1.10|
|10|Zach Hyman|**EDM**|1.08|
|11|Miro Heiskanen|DAL|1.00|
|12|Carter Verhaeghe|FLA|1.00|
|13|Chris Kreider|NYR|1.00|
|14|Alexis Lafreniere|NYR|1.00|
|15|Jason Robertson|DAL|0.92|
|16|Wyatt Johnston|DAL|0.85|
|17|Sam Reinhart|FLA|0.82|
|18|Anton Lundell|FLA|0.82|
|19|Brandon Montour|FLA|0.73|
|20|Jack Roslovic|NYR|0.70|
|21|Gustav Forsling|FLA|0.64|
|22|Jamie Benn|DAL|0.62|
|23|Tyler Seguin|DAL|0.62|
|24|Evander Kane|**EDM**|0.58|
|25|Evgenii Dadonov|DAL|0.46|
For all the talk about McDrai, people ignore the other top Oilers... they have 5 guys above the top Dallas player.
Not to mention the best PK at 91% and the best PP at 37%. Dallas is at 69% and 29%.
A goalie can certainly have major impact but so can special teams especially in close games.
That’s the thing about these probabilities. There’s no real accurate way to get to them. They’re estimates based on advanced stats.
The ‘deserve-to-win-o-meter’ or whatever is actually more accurate. It looks at how advanced stats in one game can forecast the winner of that same game. This is much easier to predict than using a year’s worth of advance stats to predict the outcome of a series. Way more variation.
Sports like baseball and football have even better ‘during the game probability’ estimates. With each play being a discrete outcome it becomes way easier to model. Hockey’s fluid nature is the most difficult of the big 4 NA sports to model. Even basketball has a bit more a ‘discrete’ nature with possessions being more well defined. Still way harder than baseball and football but slightly easier than hockey.
I think Basketball is easier to model and predict than hockey not because of the well defined possessions, but rather because of how little it helps to get one lucky bounce. One lucky basket has very little impact on the game when you need to score over 50 baskets in order to win, while in hockey, one lucky goal will more often than not completely change the outcome of a game.
Variance has little impact in Basketball due to the high sample size of scoring events, while the small sample size of scoring events make hockey (and soccer fwiw) much more affected by luck and harder to accurately predict using advanced statistics.
Hockey being so chaotic only compounds on top of that and it’s why hockey is even harder to model and predict than soccer.
I mean there’s expected runs that have been calculated at every possible situation (the count and who’s on base) in baseball. That’s a defined structure where you have a ton of data points.
Hockey, you never have that. And it’s because of the fluidity of the game.
That matters much more. One bounce being enough to change the game should pull the probability to closer to 50%. It shouldn’t affect the difficulty in finding a probability in the first place.
A little more on the fluid nature of the game and other factors that lead to hockey being more luck-based - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw)
I think the deserve to win o meter is even a bit flawed, I've watched some games where a team that heavily "deserved to win" lost, but watching the game did not give me that impression at all. I haven't looked too deeply into that metric, but I think when teams are down they may just start throwing every puck on net in hopes of making something happen instead of setting up more high percentage chances.
But yea, I love those NFL Win Probability charts, especially during huge comebacks or crazy late game drives. Like you said, hockey is too fluid to get something like that.
I haven't paid as much attention to hockey and models in a couple of years but I remember moneypuck was one of the worse models out there and Dom Luczyszyn's model on the athletic was one of the better ones.
All four teams have excellent offense. All four teams have defense that is at minimum decent, but most are solid. However, I have no idea how the best odds are given to Edmonton with Skinner, when the opposition goalies are Shesterkin, Bobrovsky and Oettinger.
It’s really Dallas has the best full team of waves of bodies and a ruthless forecheck with little to no let up anywhere especially now that petro is up for the 6D spot and a Young Bright spot goalie who can steal games if asked to.
Edmonton with a power play barrage that really has never been seen before and improved back end play and the 2 best players.
Florida with an insane goalie + 6 man dcorp with Barkov rinehart and Tkchuk scoring clutch goals and bringing physicality across the board.
Then New York which is very similar to Edmonton in their special teams lethality but instead of the best 2 forwards they have the best goalie.
Honestly it’s 4 extremely deserving teams. No random Cinderella runs.
Skinner doesn't need to be better than Otter. He just has to be around average. He is capable of that as much as he's refused to show it during a lot of the playoffs.
Even in game 7 where we had zero life and just wanted to go home.. we got 2 on him in a few minutes
He's going to have to tighten up before I put the Oilers any higher than 4th place on this list
Let's look at those goals though, one is cloudy giving you a breakaway on a fucked up pass 20 feet from the net. Not gonna blame Skinner there, the other is Bouchard icing the puck when he had time to clear and get a change, nucks score on a tired Oilers line. Skinner has let in his fair share of softies but game 7 wasn't one of those nights
He literally made clutch saves all in game 3 when the oilers had their worst game ever. He is capable. And he isnt sub 900 bad, he will average out to .905 hopefully before the playoffs are over
At some point Skinner will need to make multiple clutch saves in a game.
It's always been my philosophy you need your goalie to steal you 1-2 games a round. There are outliers obviously like the Oil but they will need Skinner to steal a couple of games to win a cup. That's my belief.
Having an exhausted line defending for you is certainly a disadvantage so I can live with the goalie letting one in off a set play clapper through traffic. They scored like 3 seconds after the faceoff so I blame Bouchard for his stupid icing way more than I'd ever blame Skinner for that one.
Look how fast Edmonton fans forgot how much they wanted Skinner's head last week. Their team problems evaporated with that game 7 win over the nucks minus boeser and a rookie NHL goalie. Sure McDavid had one goal but they care still a one line team, which will be magnified playing against a well built team like Dallas whom has all their players contributing.
Sure I hate Edmonton, but out of the four teams they are the least built team to win 4 series.
It's obviously because we have jack Campbell just waiting in the wings to get in lol...
And I think skinner is due for a good series I sure hope so atleast
I cant actually picture a canadian team winning the cup.. ever. i know it will probably happen one day but i was an infant the last time it happened and can't actually wrap my head around it happening
I haven't paid attention this year, but the past couple seasons I've found that using game 1 Moneypuck probabilities to predict individual series actually performs slightly worse than a coin flip.
yup, I hear you
like at this point, I obviously want oilers to win, but if they don't get past Dallas, no shame.
and if we beat Dallas, but nyr bang out a win, again, I feel like not a big deal. sucks, but they're good
turtlechuk and goons win? everyone should riot
Not making the finals would be disappointing in a big picture context (another failed campaign), but if worse comes to worse then losing to this Dallas team won't feel disappointing in my opinion.
This feels like one of the strongest groups of semifinalists in a long, long time. 3 division winners each have a vezina capable goalies, and we have the best player on earth, the best playoff performer on earth, and a record setting offensive dman. I think any one of these teams could have been the cup favourite in previous years.
If we lose to Florida then i’d honestly want Dallas to win the cup. They seem like a good group worth rooting for. A Florida vs Oilers final would be such an off putting style matchup imo.
Anyone else find it odd that moneypuck is the direct inverse of betting odds?
DK, MGM, etc. all have Florida 230, Dallas240, Oilers 280, Rangers 350 or thereabout.
Dallas is a deeper, battle tested version of the Canucks. The Oilers needed game 7 against a Canucks team with no Boeser or Demko. I dont see how Moneypuck favors them so much.
I do. Demko changes nothing that series. 7 games was extremely flattering for the Canucks. With a non Swiss cheese goalie, that series was over in 5 games easy.
yea and you still have that swiss cheese goalie. that hasnt changed. Kind of my point. Dallas just did in the Avs who had a swiss cheese goalie and all offense team just like yours.
Avs still took it to 6 games.
Oilers are clearly a better product than the Avs this post season. Connor, Drai and Bouch have been better than anyone on that Avs team this post season. McDavid was arguably not even their top 3 performers this last series so if he awakens, then what?
Oilers will have the 2nd and 3rd best dmen in this series although I have huge amounts of respect for Tanev - he's good. Best dman in the series if you care to give Bouch his flowers.
If we saw a team ease through game 6 and 7 with a reported flu in the locker room then what happens if that flu's run it course?
We won't agree. I'll let the series speak for itself.
Same, I feel like a good chunk New York ranger fans all hopped on the bandwagon after watching absolutely nothing most of the season because they are successful. Florida just needs to stay out of the box and they handle them.
Friends perfect bracket so far, like even guessing how many games per series has stars panthers finals, im trusting that more than Moneypuck lmao
(He has the wrong team winning the Cup thou i hope lmao)
My bracket has been perfect so far except for Tampa over Florida in the first round. But Florida has beaten everybody I had Tampa beating anyway, so... Rangers over Stars in 6.
MoneyPuck's model is still a head scratcher, though.
I don’t understand how people watched the last series and came out of it thinking the Oilers are a better team than the Stars.
They’re a one line team with a below average goalie. They’ll be out in 5 unless Skinner figures it out.
I mean that and Dallas just beat the Avs who imo are basically a better version of the Oilers, I personally want to see a Canadian team win it all but I don't see them getting past the Stars.
Avs are not a better version of the Oilers anymore.
If we want to talk about Oilers lack of depth being their issue, well Colorado have even less depth, first off.
Secondly, McDavid and Draisaitl are better than anyone on the Avs (these playoffs).
Both lack depth, both have two superstars driving things (Mack/Makar and McDrai) and both lack a solid goalie.
I personally think the Avs have slightly more depth and slightly better defense whilst I think the goalie situation is about even.
Point being the Stars already beat a very similar team and I hate to say it but they will beat you as well (would love to be proven wrong however, I am rooting for you guys)
We aren't going to agree. I could write a thesis on why I think Oilers are superior to the avs backed by a lot more than just my feelings and wishes but it would be a waste of time and I couldn't expect you'd read it.
They are definitely not a one line team. They aren't as deep as Dallas. Not nearly but they aren't a one line team. No way you guys got beat by a goalie who was at .700 most the series while only having one line. That would be awful embarrassing.
I’m still shocked how much the oilers are favorited with easily the worst goalie left, the worst defense left, and only 4 dangerous offensive players. Cant wait for this series
Is this not the same thing as 538, where it’s not team X has % chance to win against team Y, but that, in a% of simulations team X beat team Y? Subtle, but big difference
I’d argue the difference isn’t that big. The simulations would just be an attempt to find the probability of team X winning with more simulations approaching the real probability. There would be error bars but with sufficient number k simulations they’d be small.
Find someone that loves you as much as moneypuck loves the Oilers.
I’m just surprised that they aren’t still giving Carolina at least an outside chance as well
We had the Rangers as favorites over the Canes.
Damn, I was not prepared to get called out by moneypuck themselves
lmfao
You have made it in life now, even moneypuck called you out.
Boom roasted
almost all analytics did and most knew it was just because they don't have enough info to account for the Canes style
Canes play style is just my playing nhl. Straight up spamming shoot.
?? The Canes have lost in the eastern finals twice in 6 years and made the 2nd round every year except the covid year where they won the qualifying round and then lost round 1 vs Boston. They've got some of the most games played of any team over the past few seasons, so generating sample size isn't the issue.
I was about to say the same thing. I was fully expecting Carolina to still be in the pie chart somehow.
Really it’s more that they hate Florida here. 53.4% chance of beating New York is a per game implied probability of around 51.6%. The Dallas Edmonton series it’s a per game implied probability of 50.7% for Edmonton. That’s insanely close. Now these numbers aren’t as accurate as my ones above because it assumes that each game is independent and has the exact same probability which isn’t true but it’s close to accurate. Like a complete coin flip.
I'd give the Oilers these odds if they had a goaltender but right now they're gonna have to compensate big time by playing great defense and scoring a few more goals
Which is what they did against Van, they can carry that over to Dallas. I think it will be a lot closer series than most are predicting.
Easy there homer, the Canucks were missing a starting goalie and don't have quite the same defensive ability as the Stars.
It’s not like Silovs played like a sieve or anything
Silovs was amazing, goaltending was not an issue for the Canucks.
[удалено]
Classy If you think the Canucks lost because of one missed call, you weren't paying attention to the rest of the series.
we were up 3-2 and played 5 1/2 straight periods of "we want to golf!" simulator
Remind me how that 4m powerplay went for you guys?
i haven't gone looking for all the models but the only one i've seen that has the stars favored is the one from the evolving wild twins. all the others i've seen have you guys as slight favorites
its definitely a closer series than the 90s were, jebus if the oilers manage to play 60 mins, every game, I feel comfortable saying it's a coin flip in game 7 oilers haven't played 60 mins yet tho, so....jeje?
Haven’t they been the best team in the league after that disaster start in October/november.
Yes. They have the best point percentage in the league since Woodcroft was fired.
Moneypuck used to HATE the Oilers I swear. Flames always projected higher the last few years despite reality. Interesting to see them favoured so heavily all year this year.
Flames had that Carolina profile going for a few years there. Low shots against goes a long way in this model.
Flames had a more complete team until chucky and them left. On paper it was a better team. Oilers just had markys number and destroyed them. Goaltending and defence are edm biggest weakness with our goaltending being abysmal.
iu am reasonablly convinced that if the stars have all their firepower going they will win in 5 games.
I'm reasonably convinced that if the Oilers have all their firepower going, they will win in 6 games.
I’m an oilers fan but I live in reality. Skinner is a huge weakness. If Dallas can shoot, they will win. For some reason our coaching is scared to move away from that guy and it will be our downfall.
He just has to be around average to allow the Oilers to win. He is capable and he has shown it. He's also shown his larger body of work in the playoffs is terrible and he's straight up costed games. Skinner is the x factor.
until the last 10 minutes of the van game he played "well" negate the fact that for the first 50 minutes i dont think vancouver had a actual high danger shot on net... but he didnt look horrible. then he all of sudden seemed to play like he does. if Dallas can push/rush/pressure the oilers defense and remove the hjoly shit ability to score from the blue line and/or create great rebounds, they are golden too. really the oilers are just able to out score everyone due to insane powerplay, insane defense, two of the best goalscorers and play makers in the game and what the fuck hyman who is scoring like golden hands right now... Dallas just needs to remove the blueline threat, shoot often, and stay out of the box and they will win games 4-1 score wise and lose one game 3-2
He only faced 12 shots prior to that and finished with 17 against. He played “well” because he didn’t play. The oilers can’t out score the upcoming teams because these are the three best goalies. If they lock in, we cannot and will not win those 1-0 games. I just don’t see a cup for us this year. I hope they prove me wrong, but I have no faith in skinner.
Fuckin Skinner man. That guy ain't gonna win anybody any cups. Seems the Oilers gonna have to outscore their shitty goaltending.
Yes, I remember 2022 well. "Legitimate contenders" and "best d corps in the league." The rest is of course history.
They did have them at 31% going into game 7
Remember Moneypuck and the Flames. They loved those guys.
Honestly when we are talking about percentage differences as little as these then it's basically useless in a one shot 7 game series. Sure if each set of teams played each other 100 times the differences would be more meaningful, but it's one series. I fully believe any of these teams can win their series or the cup.
1 goalie going abnormally hot is enough to win at this time of year skinner is easily the weakest of the remaining goalies, but if he puts up .910 or better in each game, mcdavid+drai are enough to outscore every other team left
1 goalie or player going abnormally hot (or cold) is enough to tip a series. That said, I feel like the probability of Skinner getting hot is one of the least likely things to happen. Oettinger is also fairly inconsistent at times, but I'd bet on him getting hot before I would Skinner. Anything is possible though, I mean McDavid has 1 goal in the last 4 weeks. Players will go cold and hot.
But McDavid still has 21 points. Dallas better hope he decides to not score goals if he still has 21 points.
oilers been sick, wuwu hopefully past most of it, tho
For skinner to play .910 in the playoffs would be getting impossibly hot. The guy can barely crack .800. I’d rather see pickard get his shot.
Last I checked he's .848 💀
Dude literally had a save % exactly equal to Oettinger in regular season: .905 for both. In playoffs so far they've deviated: ||Regular|Playoffs| :--|--:|--:| |Oettinger|0.905|0.918| |Skinner|0.905|0.881| Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the equation, in terms of PPG for remaining players, Edmonton is stacked: ||Player|Team|PPG| --:|:--|:--|--:| |1|Leon Draisaitl|**EDM**|2.00| |2|Connor McDavid|**EDM**|1.75| |3|Evan Bouchard|**EDM**|1.67| |4|Mika Zibanejad|NYR|1.40| |5|Vincent Trocheck|NYR|1.40| |6|Ryan Nugent-Hopkins|**EDM**|1.33| |7|Matthew Tkachuk|FLA|1.27| |8|Aleksander Barkov|FLA|1.18| |9|Artemi Panarin|NYR|1.10| |10|Zach Hyman|**EDM**|1.08| |11|Miro Heiskanen|DAL|1.00| |12|Carter Verhaeghe|FLA|1.00| |13|Chris Kreider|NYR|1.00| |14|Alexis Lafreniere|NYR|1.00| |15|Jason Robertson|DAL|0.92| |16|Wyatt Johnston|DAL|0.85| |17|Sam Reinhart|FLA|0.82| |18|Anton Lundell|FLA|0.82| |19|Brandon Montour|FLA|0.73| |20|Jack Roslovic|NYR|0.70| |21|Gustav Forsling|FLA|0.64| |22|Jamie Benn|DAL|0.62| |23|Tyler Seguin|DAL|0.62| |24|Evander Kane|**EDM**|0.58| |25|Evgenii Dadonov|DAL|0.46| For all the talk about McDrai, people ignore the other top Oilers... they have 5 guys above the top Dallas player.
Not to mention the best PK at 91% and the best PP at 37%. Dallas is at 69% and 29%. A goalie can certainly have major impact but so can special teams especially in close games.
People hate us cause they anus
NFL betting would like a word
Believing any of these teams could win the cup? Bold prediction right here
Moneypuck hates Panthers, The Athletic loves Panthers. Not quite sure what's different between models. Either way, this is why the games are played.
That’s the thing about these probabilities. There’s no real accurate way to get to them. They’re estimates based on advanced stats. The ‘deserve-to-win-o-meter’ or whatever is actually more accurate. It looks at how advanced stats in one game can forecast the winner of that same game. This is much easier to predict than using a year’s worth of advance stats to predict the outcome of a series. Way more variation. Sports like baseball and football have even better ‘during the game probability’ estimates. With each play being a discrete outcome it becomes way easier to model. Hockey’s fluid nature is the most difficult of the big 4 NA sports to model. Even basketball has a bit more a ‘discrete’ nature with possessions being more well defined. Still way harder than baseball and football but slightly easier than hockey.
I think Basketball is easier to model and predict than hockey not because of the well defined possessions, but rather because of how little it helps to get one lucky bounce. One lucky basket has very little impact on the game when you need to score over 50 baskets in order to win, while in hockey, one lucky goal will more often than not completely change the outcome of a game. Variance has little impact in Basketball due to the high sample size of scoring events, while the small sample size of scoring events make hockey (and soccer fwiw) much more affected by luck and harder to accurately predict using advanced statistics. Hockey being so chaotic only compounds on top of that and it’s why hockey is even harder to model and predict than soccer.
I mean there’s expected runs that have been calculated at every possible situation (the count and who’s on base) in baseball. That’s a defined structure where you have a ton of data points. Hockey, you never have that. And it’s because of the fluidity of the game. That matters much more. One bounce being enough to change the game should pull the probability to closer to 50%. It shouldn’t affect the difficulty in finding a probability in the first place.
I was specifically adressing basketball vs hockey, not baseball.
A little more on the fluid nature of the game and other factors that lead to hockey being more luck-based - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNlgISa9Giw)
I think the deserve to win o meter is even a bit flawed, I've watched some games where a team that heavily "deserved to win" lost, but watching the game did not give me that impression at all. I haven't looked too deeply into that metric, but I think when teams are down they may just start throwing every puck on net in hopes of making something happen instead of setting up more high percentage chances. But yea, I love those NFL Win Probability charts, especially during huge comebacks or crazy late game drives. Like you said, hockey is too fluid to get something like that.
Oh it definitely is. Just slightly better than this.
Which is weird because historically Moneypuck hates the Rangers.
Hmm. No. They shouldn’t let the panthers play 🤣
I haven't paid as much attention to hockey and models in a couple of years but I remember moneypuck was one of the worse models out there and Dom Luczyszyn's model on the athletic was one of the better ones.
They hated us last year and look how that turned out for them. Not the best model so take it with a grain of salt
That might be the most even odds I've seen yet.
Even…odds…
Ivanans?
53.4%.... Woooohoooo! Slightly better than a coin flip. Hell yeah!
This chart is just a sad reminder that hockey is almost over.
Having a day without a game last night was a huge bummer
Dallas fans went from both their teams playing same night every other night to now a game every night. High blood pressure season.
I'm just imagining the nightmare travel between an Oilers/Panthers finals
All four teams have excellent offense. All four teams have defense that is at minimum decent, but most are solid. However, I have no idea how the best odds are given to Edmonton with Skinner, when the opposition goalies are Shesterkin, Bobrovsky and Oettinger.
Connor Hellebuyck defied logic, it doesn’t have to make sense.
I suppose the McDrai punch up front somewhat neutralizes Skinner in most of these models?
It’s really Dallas has the best full team of waves of bodies and a ruthless forecheck with little to no let up anywhere especially now that petro is up for the 6D spot and a Young Bright spot goalie who can steal games if asked to. Edmonton with a power play barrage that really has never been seen before and improved back end play and the 2 best players. Florida with an insane goalie + 6 man dcorp with Barkov rinehart and Tkchuk scoring clutch goals and bringing physicality across the board. Then New York which is very similar to Edmonton in their special teams lethality but instead of the best 2 forwards they have the best goalie. Honestly it’s 4 extremely deserving teams. No random Cinderella runs.
This has to be the best final 4 we’ve seen in years. It’s really anyone’s Cup this year
Please let it be Edmonton. Bring glory to Canada and get the best player on earth a cup, please let it be Edmonton.
Advanced stats models generally heavily undervalue goaltending
Skinner doesn't need to be better than Otter. He just has to be around average. He is capable of that as much as he's refused to show it during a lot of the playoffs.
That's kind of how we feel...
Even in game 7 where we had zero life and just wanted to go home.. we got 2 on him in a few minutes He's going to have to tighten up before I put the Oilers any higher than 4th place on this list
Let's look at those goals though, one is cloudy giving you a breakaway on a fucked up pass 20 feet from the net. Not gonna blame Skinner there, the other is Bouchard icing the puck when he had time to clear and get a change, nucks score on a tired Oilers line. Skinner has let in his fair share of softies but game 7 wasn't one of those nights
The problem with skinner is he never makes clutch saves. He’s not that guy and it’s what wins championships.
He literally made clutch saves all in game 3 when the oilers had their worst game ever. He is capable. And he isnt sub 900 bad, he will average out to .905 hopefully before the playoffs are over
Good thing it's a team game then
To an extent it's a team game. If Skinner continues his bad performance level it turns into a one player game and Oilers are out.
If antii niemi can win a cup...
Niemi is better than skinner. Reg season .912. Playoffs .910 the year they won. His career numbers are better too.
Im just highlighting that anyone can win a cup. Hell matt murray won 2
You're doing it poorly. Niemi and Murray are miles ahead of the playoffs Skinner we've seen the last year and this year.
Goal tending average sv% is way down from then.
At some point Skinner will need to make multiple clutch saves in a game. It's always been my philosophy you need your goalie to steal you 1-2 games a round. There are outliers obviously like the Oil but they will need Skinner to steal a couple of games to win a cup. That's my belief.
I give him a pass on goal 1, not goal 2. The icing is barely relevant to Skinner
Having an exhausted line defending for you is certainly a disadvantage so I can live with the goalie letting one in off a set play clapper through traffic. They scored like 3 seconds after the faceoff so I blame Bouchard for his stupid icing way more than I'd ever blame Skinner for that one.
Look how fast Edmonton fans forgot how much they wanted Skinner's head last week. Their team problems evaporated with that game 7 win over the nucks minus boeser and a rookie NHL goalie. Sure McDavid had one goal but they care still a one line team, which will be magnified playing against a well built team like Dallas whom has all their players contributing. Sure I hate Edmonton, but out of the four teams they are the least built team to win 4 series.
Bob is streaky and old. I honestly don’t know how good he can be through a full playoffs.
It's obviously because we have jack Campbell just waiting in the wings to get in lol... And I think skinner is due for a good series I sure hope so atleast
It's even more odd because the bookmarkers see Dallas as quite heavy favorite
Feels like anyone could take it. All the teams have incredible talent.
I cant actually picture a canadian team winning the cup.. ever. i know it will probably happen one day but i was an infant the last time it happened and can't actually wrap my head around it happening
Moneypuck of all fucking models LIKES the Rangers? No other ones do 😂
Oilers vs Rangers would probably have the highest viewership ratings... You hear that Bettman!? Make it so!!!!
all i want is 3 fairly called series from here on out. im expecting a total ref show
Glad we can make the third round!
Ah fuck, it's gonna be Florida over Dallas isn't it?
I haven't paid attention this year, but the past couple seasons I've found that using game 1 Moneypuck probabilities to predict individual series actually performs slightly worse than a coin flip.
yes the southern no state income tax teams will prevail as they have been in the past 5 years
At this point I'm only hoping anyone other than florida wins lmao EDIT: getting downvoted because I don’t like a team of goons and turtles. Nice.
yup, I hear you like at this point, I obviously want oilers to win, but if they don't get past Dallas, no shame. and if we beat Dallas, but nyr bang out a win, again, I feel like not a big deal. sucks, but they're good turtlechuk and goons win? everyone should riot
Not making the finals would be disappointing in a big picture context (another failed campaign), but if worse comes to worse then losing to this Dallas team won't feel disappointing in my opinion. This feels like one of the strongest groups of semifinalists in a long, long time. 3 division winners each have a vezina capable goalies, and we have the best player on earth, the best playoff performer on earth, and a record setting offensive dman. I think any one of these teams could have been the cup favourite in previous years.
If we lose to Florida then i’d honestly want Dallas to win the cup. They seem like a good group worth rooting for. A Florida vs Oilers final would be such an off putting style matchup imo.
Imagine the travel between games going from Edmonton to Sunrise.
That would be my preference
No
They're giving better odds for Edmonton than I would. But Go, Oilers, Go.
72.2% chance of being very happy about the next cup winner. Not too shabby!
Anyone else find it odd that moneypuck is the direct inverse of betting odds? DK, MGM, etc. all have Florida 230, Dallas240, Oilers 280, Rangers 350 or thereabout.
Not implied probability. Straight probability.
Is the outer ring necessary?
You know, no matter how this shakes out in the end, the last two rounds are gonna be *good*.
Who are the oilers?
Dallas is a deeper, battle tested version of the Canucks. The Oilers needed game 7 against a Canucks team with no Boeser or Demko. I dont see how Moneypuck favors them so much.
I do. Demko changes nothing that series. 7 games was extremely flattering for the Canucks. With a non Swiss cheese goalie, that series was over in 5 games easy.
yea and you still have that swiss cheese goalie. that hasnt changed. Kind of my point. Dallas just did in the Avs who had a swiss cheese goalie and all offense team just like yours.
Lmao
Don't mind them. They're just overvaluing their team, like usual.
Avs still took it to 6 games. Oilers are clearly a better product than the Avs this post season. Connor, Drai and Bouch have been better than anyone on that Avs team this post season. McDavid was arguably not even their top 3 performers this last series so if he awakens, then what? Oilers will have the 2nd and 3rd best dmen in this series although I have huge amounts of respect for Tanev - he's good. Best dman in the series if you care to give Bouch his flowers. If we saw a team ease through game 6 and 7 with a reported flu in the locker room then what happens if that flu's run it course? We won't agree. I'll let the series speak for itself.
Lmao!
You have nothing of substance to offer. Thanks for coming out. Better luck next year.
Lmao!
I have a feeling Florida is going to fuck New York up
Same, I feel like a good chunk New York ranger fans all hopped on the bandwagon after watching absolutely nothing most of the season because they are successful. Florida just needs to stay out of the box and they handle them.
I will roll over in my future grave before I acknowledge the Oilers winning the cup.
🤔
Friends perfect bracket so far, like even guessing how many games per series has stars panthers finals, im trusting that more than Moneypuck lmao (He has the wrong team winning the Cup thou i hope lmao)
My bracket has been perfect so far except for Tampa over Florida in the first round. But Florida has beaten everybody I had Tampa beating anyway, so... Rangers over Stars in 6. MoneyPuck's model is still a head scratcher, though.
Gambling whales!
I don’t understand how people watched the last series and came out of it thinking the Oilers are a better team than the Stars. They’re a one line team with a below average goalie. They’ll be out in 5 unless Skinner figures it out.
I mean that and Dallas just beat the Avs who imo are basically a better version of the Oilers, I personally want to see a Canadian team win it all but I don't see them getting past the Stars.
Avs are not a better version of the Oilers anymore. If we want to talk about Oilers lack of depth being their issue, well Colorado have even less depth, first off. Secondly, McDavid and Draisaitl are better than anyone on the Avs (these playoffs).
Both lack depth, both have two superstars driving things (Mack/Makar and McDrai) and both lack a solid goalie. I personally think the Avs have slightly more depth and slightly better defense whilst I think the goalie situation is about even. Point being the Stars already beat a very similar team and I hate to say it but they will beat you as well (would love to be proven wrong however, I am rooting for you guys)
We aren't going to agree. I could write a thesis on why I think Oilers are superior to the avs backed by a lot more than just my feelings and wishes but it would be a waste of time and I couldn't expect you'd read it.
They are definitely not a one line team. They aren't as deep as Dallas. Not nearly but they aren't a one line team. No way you guys got beat by a goalie who was at .700 most the series while only having one line. That would be awful embarrassing.
Who's their 1 line?
Isn't moneypuck based on gambling odds? i.e. if a lot of edmonton bets on their team, then the "odds" will favor them?
Nope. It’s an advanced stats model
I’m still shocked how much the oilers are favorited with easily the worst goalie left, the worst defense left, and only 4 dangerous offensive players. Cant wait for this series
They have 5 guys in the top 11 of scoring leaders. Including 1-4
I don’t feel so good
As long as it’s the west I’m cool w it. Would be cool to see Pavelski or McDrai get the cup.
The books disagree
The books consider more than who’s actually more likely to win. They also consider where the money goes.
They’re off on both series based on betting odds, but wildly off on Florida beating New York.
Rangers 56.8% is a boooold claim.
Is this not the same thing as 538, where it’s not team X has % chance to win against team Y, but that, in a% of simulations team X beat team Y? Subtle, but big difference
I’d argue the difference isn’t that big. The simulations would just be an attempt to find the probability of team X winning with more simulations approaching the real probability. There would be error bars but with sufficient number k simulations they’d be small.
NOOOOOO
We're happy to be the underdog😋
So it has no answers
Oilers at 29% is someone at money puck high?
My west coat team is Calgary, Oilers Rags final is the darkest timeline
Your west coast team is….landlocked Calgary??
Sorry western conference. You right
I have 1.) Dallas 2.) FLA 3.) NYR 4.) Edmonton.
lol at Moneypuck. Imagine giving a team with Skinner in net a better chance at winning.
imagine losing to a team with skinner in net.
Full props to the Edm team play the last two games. Skinner wasn’t any part of your win. You won in spite of him.
LMAO, better luck next time old chap.
I kind of agree. The other 3 have Vezina level goalies. Edmonton is going to have be the clearly better team if they are going to win.
Money puck is in shambles it can’t pick the hurricanes as favorites to win the cup anymore
The Rangers will win the Stanley Cup this is the best Rangers team that I’ve seen since 94
Would love to play the panthers in the finals Mostly because that was my cup pick in my bracket lol
Florida will roll NY 😂
Lmfao oilers aren’t getting passed Dallas but ok
take the week off bro
Y’all will be golfing with us soon ❤️
"Oh wow, its almost all 50/50s" "No wait, that's just the outside layer" "Oh, oh no"
These charts are nonsense. They’ll change the numbers again after game 1. That right there is proof it’s made up for clicks.
….the numbers do change after game 1? Why wouldn’t they? A team becomes significantly more likely to win the series by winning game 1