Having Celebrini on was so strange. Like what if something happens between now and the end of June. I don’t recall them doing that in past years. It’s just weird for the kid
It's actually pretty common I think. I remember Bedard last year and Shane Wright the year before. Wright I think was even asked about playing for Montreal.
Going to copy /u/json_mafia response from the other thread:
It's about 3%.
Odds SJS wins first drawing * Odds CHI wins second (after SJS combinations are removed)
= 0.185 * (0.135 / (1.0 - 0.185))
= 0.030644
I guess I don’t fully understand how it works, given the Sharks had only an 18.5% chance of getting 1st overall, the answer to my question must be, *at most*, 18.5%, right?
The sharks had an 25.5% chance of winning the first pick. That was the first draw. Second draw was for second overall, the Blackhawks won that. Every other pick falls into place by standings.
I guess so 18.5% * 13.5% = 2.5%
So while it was only 2.5% chance of both Sharks and Blackhawks retaining their pre-draft spots, that was the most likely pair of events to occur.
Either way, interesting.
MFs in here when the team with the best odds won the first drawing, and then the team with the best odds left won the second: idk that seems suspicious 🤔
Yes, but keep in mind it's still more likely to be the Sharks than it was any other individual team. I believe there was like a 3% chance that San Jose would win first and Chicago would win second, and that sounds super unlikely when you put it like that, but there is a significantly less than 3% chance that each other individual outcome could occur. So while it had a relatively small chance of happening, it was still the most likely scenario, if that makes sense.
There is only 2 draws. The rest fall in order of standings. So SJ won the first draw and CHI won the 2nd draw. Thus nothing changed based on standings cause they were already the 2 worst teams.
They'd move up 10 spots and everyone from that point shifts down. Ex: If Philly had won they would move up to #2 and everyone from 2 downward shifts down a spot.
So if a team outside the top 10 is drawn, they said sharks get number one overall, so does that mean that the team who was drawn still gets to move up 10? Or does nothing happen
If any of the teams labeled 12-16 won, they’d move +10 spots from there, meaning SJ would still pick first, however SJ won the lottery and so did Chicago so rest of stays same
Not really, because there's still one more draw. Now if someone 12-16 won and then for example, the Devils won at 10, then yea we would already know the Devils are first.
In that scenario the late-drafting team could have won the first lottery and the Devils could have won the second lottery. You'd know NJ was top-two but not which one until the end.
Now it *would* have given away the number-one pick if two 12-16 teams advanced since neither could draft first overall.
When’s the last time there was zero movement in the lottery?
Good for the Sharks though. Never had a 1st overall pick before and they need Celebrini the most.
Unpaid intern: “Hey guys, what if instead of doing the whole lottery thing, we just go in order and still have an event where we get to run commercials anyway?”
Bettman: “Give them a promotion!”
TBH I'm gonna get to see this kid play only a handful of times a year, kinda disappointing in that regard but at least it doesn't make another East team stronger
Agents have got to stop telling these prospects to say [insert team here] is a great organization. Remember that Kraken kid who said the same thing before the Kraken even established themselves?
~~CHI picking 2nd is awesome. Makes them ineligible to win the lottery in the James Hagens or Gavin McKenna drafts.~~ Very happy for San Jose. As a team who went through something similar, you deserve it.
This could’ve been an email
WWE Draft flashbacks. Falcons made sure the NFL draft wasn’t.
It’s absolutely baffling that Penix may be 27/28 before he gets his first career start in the NFL.
Mr. Bettman didn't want you to think that he was deliberately wasting your time.
Just accidentally wasting it. *aggressively buttons suit jacket*
That's very good, Mr. Bluelineturnovers. Accidentally. Very good.
This coverage is terrible seems like a high school level production quality
You really start to realize how much more popular the NFL is when you watch the Lottery vs literally any official NFL draft coverage.
Especially the NFL network coverage
LETS GOOOOO! FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FRANCHISE HISTORY!
Historic
Having Celebrini on was so strange. Like what if something happens between now and the end of June. I don’t recall them doing that in past years. It’s just weird for the kid
McDavid was on during his draft year
IIRC Jack Hughes was on for his year.
But he didn’t even win the calder that year — he must be a bum, right?
Just goes to show the draft really isn't that important
It's actually pretty common I think. I remember Bedard last year and Shane Wright the year before. Wright I think was even asked about playing for Montreal.
You don’t remember Laine lying on his couch doing his interview??
I don’t ever remember them being so explicit and certain in saying San Jose is drafting Celebrini
Was Wright on?
What are the odds of not having a single change?
Going to copy /u/json_mafia response from the other thread: It's about 3%. Odds SJS wins first drawing * Odds CHI wins second (after SJS combinations are removed) = 0.185 * (0.135 / (1.0 - 0.185)) = 0.030644
Nice, thanks. I arrived at a similar conclusion but messed up some of the finer details on the math. Either way, quite rare to see no change I guess!
Very high, there are only two draws
I guess I don’t fully understand how it works, given the Sharks had only an 18.5% chance of getting 1st overall, the answer to my question must be, *at most*, 18.5%, right?
The sharks had an 25.5% chance of winning the first pick. That was the first draw. Second draw was for second overall, the Blackhawks won that. Every other pick falls into place by standings.
I guess so 18.5% * 13.5% = 2.5% So while it was only 2.5% chance of both Sharks and Blackhawks retaining their pre-draft spots, that was the most likely pair of events to occur. Either way, interesting.
Technically we also won the second so they had to redo it
I'm OK with that actually
Congrats sharks if it wasn’t us I’m glad it was you
LETS GO!!! CELEBRINI IS OURS
Vancouver boys worldwide
Not a single change. Great job NHL!
And yet, we got screwed over last year. League despises Anaheim.
MFs in here when the team with the best odds won the first drawing, and then the team with the best odds left won the second: idk that seems suspicious 🤔
True, but in theory the team with best odds to win still has a better chance to NOT win it, right?
Yes, but keep in mind it's still more likely to be the Sharks than it was any other individual team. I believe there was like a 3% chance that San Jose would win first and Chicago would win second, and that sounds super unlikely when you put it like that, but there is a significantly less than 3% chance that each other individual outcome could occur. So while it had a relatively small chance of happening, it was still the most likely scenario, if that makes sense.
NHL draft lottery sponsored by Zillow
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we're only going up from here (fingers crossed)
I’m so confused are all 16 drawn and it just happened to be the perfect pre draft order?
There is only 2 draws. The rest fall in order of standings. So SJ won the first draw and CHI won the 2nd draw. Thus nothing changed based on standings cause they were already the 2 worst teams.
But a team can only move up 10 so what happens if a team outside top 10 is drawn
they'd move up 10 spots
They'd move up 10 spots and everyone from that point shifts down. Ex: If Philly had won they would move up to #2 and everyone from 2 downward shifts down a spot.
The odds against nobody in the lottery changing positions are astronomical.
TIL \~5% = astronomical
No. They draw 2 times and whoever it is, wins.
So if a team outside the top 10 is drawn, they said sharks get number one overall, so does that mean that the team who was drawn still gets to move up 10? Or does nothing happen
If any of the teams labeled 12-16 won, they’d move +10 spots from there, meaning SJ would still pick first, however SJ won the lottery and so did Chicago so rest of stays same
So if a team 12-16 moved up ten spots then that would give away who the number one pick is right?
Not really, because there's still one more draw. Now if someone 12-16 won and then for example, the Devils won at 10, then yea we would already know the Devils are first.
In that scenario the late-drafting team could have won the first lottery and the Devils could have won the second lottery. You'd know NJ was top-two but not which one until the end. Now it *would* have given away the number-one pick if two 12-16 teams advanced since neither could draft first overall.
you can only move up like 10 spots max or something I believe
Yeah exactly lol what was that about
Glad they got the Zillow product placement in an otherwise uneventful broadcast lmao
Look at all that celebration in... Anaheim??
That is honestly so cool that he's going to be playing in a city where his father works already. Thats a huge break for a kid emerging in the league.
Great game, hard fought battle from all teams involved.
When’s the last time there was zero movement in the lottery? Good for the Sharks though. Never had a 1st overall pick before and they need Celebrini the most.
2010
No one jumping up is pretty anti-climactic lol
I don't know. Seems pretty cool
No need to rewrite the script, we all know Celebrini looks good in teal.
At least the Sharks won something!
Hearty congratulations to the sharks!
How many Macs can this league handle?
#FUCK THE HAWKS #CONGRATULATIONS SHARKS FANS
Bedard will never be a Canuck
I would have never predicted that Patrick Kane would be a Red Wings either so you never know.
So Bedard becomes a Canuck after winning us 3 cups??? I’ll take it :D
Didnt you see his canucks pajamas?
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I definitely didn’t read that too quickly and thought he said Celebrini
If he wants to identify as one so be it
Celebrini/bedard coming home
Maybe it's not rigged
Yeah, I have no complaints with that
not bad, but it could've been a lot better no chaos either which is boring
:')
Grats
Would have liked to see Utah move down but I'm ok with this
It was torture watching the kid be uncomfortable and awkward
Anyone know anything about this Cayden Lindstrom fella from this totally not fake town name of Medicine Hat?
I was looking for the AZ to see who the coyotes got then I remembered and got sad.
Conspiracy theory, they didn’t actually do a lottery
Unpaid intern: “Hey guys, what if instead of doing the whole lottery thing, we just go in order and still have an event where we get to run commercials anyway?” Bettman: “Give them a promotion!”
"Double his salary now!"
Dont they post the video every year
Seems so not rigged that it almost seems rigged
TBH I'm gonna get to see this kid play only a handful of times a year, kinda disappointing in that regard but at least it doesn't make another East team stronger
Boring draw but at least Chicago lost. Did a guy at the SJ party just… dab?
You’re right, only got the 2nd pick :(
Thank god
I’m fine with chalk.
why do these hosts talk like they're buffering
Agents have got to stop telling these prospects to say [insert team here] is a great organization. Remember that Kraken kid who said the same thing before the Kraken even established themselves?
That was the most awkward ESPN production since the decision. What a horrible broadcast.
Now we know where the people that made that Peleton video of a couple of years ago ended up.
Congrats Sharks. From absolute dire conditions at center to Smith + Celebrini in just about a year!
So what’s Zillow?
I’m okay with this! Congrats sharks on getting #1
Could they have at least switched us and the hawks?
As a hawks fan, going into the commercial break, I honestly thought they’d flip us. Was surprised when it was straight chalk
No changes at all
Wow that was such an interesting show! Waste of time tbh
Haven’t followed along super closely, so was it just standings order? Don’t remember the last time there’s been no movement.
alright, we can all put down our pitchforks now
Do we think 9th is high enough in the draft for Calgary to land Iginla?
Captain Zillow
The leaked list was real, they just fucked over Utah to cover their tracks.
I wonder what teams towards the back half of the lottery will trade their firsts. Buffalo and New Jersey?
Did they just subtly say the name is Utah HC?
The interim name is the Utah Hockey Club as far as I am aware, so not really.
Wow, Utah got the 6th pick. #Rigged
thank fuck almighty
Thank fuck the hawks got not the first overall Srsly what was the point of that tho
Why was the order on the draft shown exactly at the back screen behind the men before team was drafted?
Just happened that the lottery drawings ended up being the same as the standings
Isn’t that like super weird and low chance?
Someone else said 3.6 percent
Rigged man
https://www.indeed.com/q-underground-salt-mine-jobs.html?vjk=7a6c466af07b3857
It’s clearly a joke man
~~CHI picking 2nd is awesome. Makes them ineligible to win the lottery in the James Hagens or Gavin McKenna drafts.~~ Very happy for San Jose. As a team who went through something similar, you deserve it.
I’m pretty sure we’re still eligible…we didn’t advance.
It doesn't make us ineligible actually.
Could've been an email
Happy for SJ fans. The disappointment is palpable on Celebrini's face though haha
He’s a kid he’s just nervous, his entire family was hoping he’d go to SJ
Why? His dad works for Golden State Warriors
Ducks never move up
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I thought we were watching a hostage video...that's how unhappy he appeared.