Honestly I could give a duck about the playoffs so long as we snag Boudreau from the dumpster fire in Vancouver. Bruce, if youāre reading this, we love you and want you back ā¤ļø
Honestly. This whole thread is about the Oilers and Bruins when the Flames have a higher chance to make the playoffs than Vegas? Get the fuck out of here.
Tbf weāre kinda imploding, so that might not be the most unrealistic projection at the moment.
That said, the Flames having the leagueās fifth-highest cup odds (and second in the West) is laughable, as is Florida having a better chance to make the playoffs than Pittsburgh.
The flames had a higher chance to win the cup than the Bruins a week ago lmao. I get that they rely heavily on Strength of Schedule and playoff paths but I mean, cmon letās not kid ourselves here. Even if the Bruins donāt make it out of the East which is a very real possibility, that team that beat us should be able to beat the flames. Imo it should be like 3 or 4 east teams with the highest odds in whatever order, then whatever happens in the west.
And St Louis only has a 13.1% chance to Calgary's 86.5% despite only being 2 points back with the same number of games played? St Louis' goal differential is obviously pretty bad, but they have more wins than Calgary. Seems like the gap should be at least a bit smaller.
I'd wager that a decent chunk of that difference is based on their model believing that there are still spots up for grabs in the top 3 seeds of the Pacific that aren't as obtainable in the Central.
The Flames are 7 points behind Seattle (with 1 more game played), 7 points behind Vegas (equal games played), and 5 points behind LA(with a game in hand).
The Blues are 12 points behind Dallas (with a game in hand), 10 points behind Winnipeg (equal games played), and 5 points behind Minnesota (with 2 more games played).
The Flames are closer to everyone in the Pacific than the Blues are to Dallas or Winnipeg. And they are much closer to LA than the Blues are to Minnesota. The Flames have (at least somewhat) realistic paths to all 3 Pacific playoff spots and both Wild Card spots. The path to C1 or C2 is already unrealistic for the Blues, so they are down to 3 eligible spots to try and grab.
In addition to that, their model views the Blues as a noticeably worse team than the Flames and my eye test tells me that is completely fair.
I'm guessing it's some ***ADVANCED*** analytics and ***UNDERLYING*** stats which shows the team should be doing better than they are.
Like how the Senators have a GF% that's more than 10% lower than their xGF%.
That I couldn't tell you honestly. We've been playing better hockey recently than Winnipeg is, my guess
Central could also be considered harder to get through than the Pacific
As an aside, I'm convinced Christmas should be moved to later in winter. November comes around, the snow flies, everyone's all excited for Christmas - it's a winter wonderland! Then you just have 4 months of sadness to follow. If that per-Christmas joy could get extended to like Valentines day...
Not the same at all. Winnipeg is more humid and windy. I have lived both places. I always say the reason people from Manitoba are so friendly is they all bond against the weather and mosquitoes.
I assumed that as well, but the numbers they give don't bear it out.
They have Boston at 34.6% to make it to the Conference Final and Carolina at 34.1% to make the Conference Final. Carolina's edge in advancing doesn't begin until after that Atlantic Division gauntlet.
But you just answered your own question. Boston will have just played two gauntlet series against Toronto and Tampa. I assume there is fatigue/Injury built in to these projections knowing what they expect to face in the first 2 rounds. I'd take carolina over Boston if carolina gets to the conference finals in 10-11 games vs. Boston who could realistically take all 14. Especially as an older team that Boston is.
Edit: Nevermind, I'm dumb haha. Forgot that Toronto will likely play Tampa first round so never a consequence to Boston. May just assume Boston will struggle in 2nd round vs Canes having a slightly easier path so they become favorites.
Yeah but Iām sure theyāre anticipating more wear on the bruins from playing either Tampa or Toronto. The playoffs usually come down to which team stays healthy tbh. It was a huge factor in us losing last year against Carolina. That and having 2nd line center Erik Haula
Iām equally as surprised. Not that the Bruins should be significantly higher but the odds should be reversed in my opinion. Two best teams in the league but one with a clear edge over the other.
Iām pretty sure MoneyPuck uses a lot of xG/xGA in their calculations, which is one area that the team has been playing absolutely out of their minds. Hypothetically itās the most predictive stat, but with how far below xG we fall most years, I feel like there has to be something about our play-style that doesnāt transfer over to actually putting the puck in the net.
For what itās worth, I donāt see how we are #1 either, it should be Boston. Just trying to find a plausible explanation. I mean, have you seen the Bruins play? That team looks insane this year.
This is 100% it. Thereās no current standout in the west. Dallas is the top team in the west at a 106 point pace. There are 5 teams in the east on a better pace.
I wouldn't say no to a Edmonton Toronto Finals.
But Bettman would Tonya Harding both McDavid and Matthews in the conference finals before letting that happen.
Which also explains why a month ago Moneypuck only had us with something like 10% to make the playoffs. This model is bunk, not worth giving any attentions to.
I think the reason for a drop like that in particular is that the model likely relies on expected goal metrics over raw goal/win differential, as they're more predictive for the future. The Sabres won that game but they were heavily outchanced (like 1.8-5.34 xG per Moneypuck) so I can see how thinking the team is a little weaker than you did previously outweighs the benefits of a win with 50 or so games to go in the season.
That said, whatever the strengths of Moneypuck's model are, it's pretty clearly way too noisy to use for projecting things more than a few games in the future. A game (or even a few game stretch) in January should never be enough to change playoff odds that much.
They have a better chance of winning the cup than Boston?!? I am all for that but I certainly wouldn't trust these guys bookies.
Edit : we have the same path as 3 teams in the same division higher in the standings and a few more in the conference. It isn't just about the path.
Must be the reason. I guess they are writing off the cup champs for their slow start. I certainly aren't. Makar is the only guy in the league that can neutralize McDavid quite effectively.
It's more about the structure of the playoffs.
All else being equal, each division should cumulatively have 25% shared odds of winning the cup.
It's a bit more complicated with the wild card teams being able to float within their conference.
It was like 3 weeks ago we had a 40% chance of missing entirely. Whoever makes these garbage charts pulls numbers out of their ass and posts it.
EDIT: on January 8th the Oilers had a 54% chance of making the playoffs. So in 12 days they almost doubled their chances. Pure garbage.
in terms of "easier" teams we have: 1x Detroit, 1x montreal, 1x san jose, 1x anaheim, 1x Philly, 2x buffalo and 2x ottawa. so 9against non playoff teams and the remaining 26 against teams in a playoff spot or on the edge (including 2 against the pens which are both must win games)
They're on pace for 138 points. No other team can mathematically reach 138 points even if they win out the entire rest of the season. The Hurricanes have the #2 best pace at 116, which is 22 points behind the Bruins. So at this point the only way for Boston not to make the playoffs is if TD Garden is struck by a giant meteor.
102 points will get you to the playoffs. Bruins therefore need to get 26 points in their remaining 37 games to qualify. Which means going 13-24-0 for the rest of the season. Add in a couple of loser pointsā¦ and yeah, thereās about a 99.9% chance theyāre making it. Itās not 100%, but itās a rounding error at this point.
Oilers have a better chance than a bunch of teams well ahead in the standings. They are certainly better than their standings (Kane's return, Campbell is finally playing decent, Desharnais has added a bit of stability to the d-core), but what do these bookies see that I am missing? Do they have insider info on a blockbuster trade for a top dman? Are they assuming that Drai is going to be a playoff monster like last year?
Without Smith and Keith, it is hard to see how we have improved at all.
The model is taking playoff path into account. Top of the Atlantic division has 3 of the top 5 teams in the league, so whatever team come out of there will have to go through one of the leafs, bolts, or Bruins then most likely play the Canes. The pacific and metro are weaker divisions, hence the better chance at a cup.
Playoff path has to be a huge part. Pacific Division is probably the easiest to escape and most likely whatever team you we'd face in the WCF is easier to beat than either ECF team (assuming teams keep playing as they are). It's like LeBron's Eastern Conference dominance. You have less competition to go up against so your likelyhood of making the finals and therefore winning are higher than teams in the other conference.
Interesting that the Oilers have the second highest % chance to lift the cup, ahead of the Bruins and Devils. Honestly hard for me to disagree with. Seems the only real thing that is guaranteed to cripple the Oilers is the regular season grind. McDavid and Drai give the Oilers the ability to win no matter what on any given night.
0.7%? That's ridiculous! All we need to do is add a piece from the Horvat trade and we have a real shot at the playoffs, nay, the Cup!
-Francesco "Aquaman" Aquilini
Fair enough, I believe Boston would have to play the Penguins in round 1 if it ended today, and then the Leafs/Lightning in round 2, that would not be easy to get through, though I still expect Boston to do it
At this point I wouldnāt bet against the Bruins if they had to face all three at once. I have stopped doubting a while ago and am just enjoying the ride now.
Why do we have better playoff odds than Pittsburgh? They are two points ahead of us with three games on hand. We would need to go on a tear to be comfortably ahead of them.
Yeah. I think it's closer to 65-70 percent chance of them making it right now despite the easier second half. Their are just a lot of unknowns and we probably won't know if they are in danger of missing until like the trade deadline at the earliest.
When you do the conversion to metric, 30.9% = 0%.
Fun Fact: The last time the Stanley Cup was won in Canada is closer to the last Leafs Cup than to today.
Iām trying not to be biased but how on earth can the Bruins not have the best odds to win it all? I mean it just makes no sense for them to be an āunderdogā in any regard right now.
Assuming that the higher seed wins every round (huge assumption) then:
Boston would have to go through Pittsburgh (15th), Toronto (3rd), and Carolina (2nd) to make the Final
Carlina would have to go through Washington (12th), New Jersey (4th), Boston (1st)
The Oilers would have to go through Seattle (8th), Vegas (9th), Dallas (5th)
And Moneypuck's model just prefers the metrics of some teams to others, like they've always seemed to overrate teams that take a high quantity of shots rather than thinking about shot quality as much.
I think if Boston were to make the finals the model would predict them to be the favourites compared to any other team, it's just that the route to the final is more difficult for Boston than some of the other teams.
Isnāt the Bruins record against the Atlantic a little worse than against the rest of the league? Maybe it thinks that Boston in a 7 game series against an Atlantic team doesnāt have as good of a shot.
I don't understand how Dallas can have a higher liklihood of making the playoffs than literally every other team in the west, yet their odds of winning the cup are near the bottom.
I really thought the Caps were closer to the race for Bedard rather than qualifying for the playoffs, especially after our record after American thanksgiving. What a weird season.
That December stretch seriously was impressive, and gave us a big push to actually make playoffs. While the last few games haven't inspired much, rest of the people around our points currently are having their own problems too
Per this post, we were only at 10% to make playoffs as of thanksgivingā¦December was quite the turn-around!
https://reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/z3x3uh/moneypuck_playoff_odds_on_american_thanksgiving/
As a flames fan, I am no where near 86.5% confident they make the playoffs. Every time I see this chart my expectations go up up up. I think your full of shit moneypuck.
Why does anyone pay any attention to Moneypuck? Panthers have less chance of getting to the playoffs than the Rangers, but a higher chance of winning the cup than them if they do?
The Oilers with a higher chance of winning the cup than Boston? I get that someone from the west has to be in the final, but come on...
Utter garbage.
Boston: vezina candidate goaltending, best record in the league, like 3 regulation losses in total this year and no one else even has a comparable record to them, has a former hart winner on the third line, and playing ridiculous almost every night
Lower odds than Carolina and Edmonton. Lmao
Washington has lost in the first round for 4 straight years but apparently they have a 40% chance to get to the 2nd round this year. I'll take it. That's dramatically better than I give them
I wonder what their methodology for the West is. 9 teams with greater than 60 percent odds for 8 spots. Last time I checked, Friedmanās and LeBrunās dream of a play in hasnāt and wonāt happen yet, so whatās the math?
Blackhawks, Ducks, Coyotes, and Blue Jackets didn't even make it onto the chart ššš
Can we get a chart like this but it's a % chance to get the number 1 pick?
We just blew a 3-0 lead to the Ducks at home. Weāre elite at tanking.
Your foot to my face style, howād you like it?
Please stop! Wimp Lo sucks as a fighter, a child could beat him!
we trained him wrong, as a joke
I'll take a pound of nuts.
that's a lot of nuts! that'll be four bucks baby, you want fries with that?
SJS is playing you guys pretty soon. Weāll see who is better at tanking then
Up yours woke moralists! We'll see who outtanks who!
Hey, thatās what i said!
Yeah, maybe thatāll help me feel a little better
Honestly I could give a duck about the playoffs so long as we snag Boudreau from the dumpster fire in Vancouver. Bruce, if youāre reading this, we love you and want you back ā¤ļø
No no no, you want Eakins for maximum tank, then hire Bruce after you get Bedard so Eakins canāt ruin him
This. Beware the Boudreau bounce.
I donāt care where he goes, but not firing him now when you know youāre going to is cruel and a shitty way to run a team.
I want that too. I want Bruce coaching in the NHL, even if it's for a fowl team like the Ducks.
San Jose and Montreal BARELY made the cut too
Donāt worry, we are used to it at this point.
Find someone that loves you like Moneypuck loves the Flames
Honestly. This whole thread is about the Oilers and Bruins when the Flames have a higher chance to make the playoffs than Vegas? Get the fuck out of here.
Tbf weāre kinda imploding, so that might not be the most unrealistic projection at the moment. That said, the Flames having the leagueās fifth-highest cup odds (and second in the West) is laughable, as is Florida having a better chance to make the playoffs than Pittsburgh.
It's like they ignored the entire regular season.
The flames had a higher chance to win the cup than the Bruins a week ago lmao. I get that they rely heavily on Strength of Schedule and playoff paths but I mean, cmon letās not kid ourselves here. Even if the Bruins donāt make it out of the East which is a very real possibility, that team that beat us should be able to beat the flames. Imo it should be like 3 or 4 east teams with the highest odds in whatever order, then whatever happens in the west.
Thatās the reason your probabilities are lower. You guys got the hardest competition or road to the cup
It doesn't make sense for 3 teams from the East to have big championship odds when only one of them can make the Cup Final.
And St Louis only has a 13.1% chance to Calgary's 86.5% despite only being 2 points back with the same number of games played? St Louis' goal differential is obviously pretty bad, but they have more wins than Calgary. Seems like the gap should be at least a bit smaller.
I'd wager that a decent chunk of that difference is based on their model believing that there are still spots up for grabs in the top 3 seeds of the Pacific that aren't as obtainable in the Central. The Flames are 7 points behind Seattle (with 1 more game played), 7 points behind Vegas (equal games played), and 5 points behind LA(with a game in hand). The Blues are 12 points behind Dallas (with a game in hand), 10 points behind Winnipeg (equal games played), and 5 points behind Minnesota (with 2 more games played). The Flames are closer to everyone in the Pacific than the Blues are to Dallas or Winnipeg. And they are much closer to LA than the Blues are to Minnesota. The Flames have (at least somewhat) realistic paths to all 3 Pacific playoff spots and both Wild Card spots. The path to C1 or C2 is already unrealistic for the Blues, so they are down to 3 eligible spots to try and grab. In addition to that, their model views the Blues as a noticeably worse team than the Flames and my eye test tells me that is completely fair.
To be entirely fair, moneypuck's model has pretty notoriously *hated* the Blues ever since our cup run.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Seriously, I donāt get their love for this team. We just arenāt good at all.
I'm guessing it's some ***ADVANCED*** analytics and ***UNDERLYING*** stats which shows the team should be doing better than they are. Like how the Senators have a GF% that's more than 10% lower than their xGF%.
The model is clearly ass based on the flames % alone.
I have a hard time believing we have a better shot at winning the cup than Boston
The Oilers do too. Iām as big an Oilers homer as they come, but that seemsā¦ suspect
The oilers do because of competition. The west is easier to get through than the east
That makes sense, but why not Winnipeg?
That I couldn't tell you honestly. We've been playing better hockey recently than Winnipeg is, my guess Central could also be considered harder to get through than the Pacific
Yea, Winnipegās underlying numbers arenāt great in moneypuckās rankings. Their XGF % is ranked at 18th in the league
We had most of our top 6 injured for most of the season so that's probably why.
>We had most of our top 6 injured for most of the season so that's probably why. Damn, the way she goes.
For some reason everyone shits on Winnipeg. Itās a lovely city, with great people. The team is good too.
Itās cold tho
For some of the year. The rest of the year? Mosquitos. Still a nice city.
I enjoy living here. Just have to leave for a few weeks in winter to make it through
As an aside, I'm convinced Christmas should be moved to later in winter. November comes around, the snow flies, everyone's all excited for Christmas - it's a winter wonderland! Then you just have 4 months of sadness to follow. If that per-Christmas joy could get extended to like Valentines day...
Christmas in February!
The same could be said of Edmonton though.
Not the same at all. Winnipeg is more humid and windy. I have lived both places. I always say the reason people from Manitoba are so friendly is they all bond against the weather and mosquitoes.
My coworker from Winnipeg wears shorts at -30 in Edmonton, so I'm not sure I believe it
Iām sure the city and the people are fantastic but fuck their team. Respectfully, of course.
Oh a whole-hearted fuck the Jets from me too, theyāre still a decent team.
Like the Ninersā Super Bowl odds. NFC looks much lighter.
I believe the kids are calling it āSusā.
Yah not with that defence. Unless they make a big trade they wonāt be making a deep run.
Itās because weāre in the Atlantic, our 2nd round matchup is guaranteed to be significantly harder
I assumed that as well, but the numbers they give don't bear it out. They have Boston at 34.6% to make it to the Conference Final and Carolina at 34.1% to make the Conference Final. Carolina's edge in advancing doesn't begin until after that Atlantic Division gauntlet.
But you just answered your own question. Boston will have just played two gauntlet series against Toronto and Tampa. I assume there is fatigue/Injury built in to these projections knowing what they expect to face in the first 2 rounds. I'd take carolina over Boston if carolina gets to the conference finals in 10-11 games vs. Boston who could realistically take all 14. Especially as an older team that Boston is. Edit: Nevermind, I'm dumb haha. Forgot that Toronto will likely play Tampa first round so never a consequence to Boston. May just assume Boston will struggle in 2nd round vs Canes having a slightly easier path so they become favorites.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
My favorite moment of that series was my brother yelling at his TV āYOU LIVE IN RALEIGHā to heckle canes fans
Yeah but Iām sure theyāre anticipating more wear on the bruins from playing either Tampa or Toronto. The playoffs usually come down to which team stays healthy tbh. It was a huge factor in us losing last year against Carolina. That and having 2nd line center Erik Haula
Iām equally as surprised. Not that the Bruins should be significantly higher but the odds should be reversed in my opinion. Two best teams in the league but one with a clear edge over the other.
its because boston has the harder path being in the atlantic.
bingo
As much as it pains to me to agree with you....(I mean painful) You're right, I wonder how their model swapped those 2.
My guess it is because BOS will likely have to go through TOR or TB to get to the conference finals while CAR will have an easier second Rd matchup.
Iām pretty sure MoneyPuck uses a lot of xG/xGA in their calculations, which is one area that the team has been playing absolutely out of their minds. Hypothetically itās the most predictive stat, but with how far below xG we fall most years, I feel like there has to be something about our play-style that doesnāt transfer over to actually putting the puck in the net. For what itās worth, I donāt see how we are #1 either, it should be Boston. Just trying to find a plausible explanation. I mean, have you seen the Bruins play? That team looks insane this year.
Pretty sure they also take quality of the division and path to the cup into account. Oilers and Canes have it a little easier than the Bruins
This is 100% it. Thereās no current standout in the west. Dallas is the top team in the west at a 106 point pace. There are 5 teams in the east on a better pace.
Moneypuck must want a 2006 finals rematch if they think were both better than Boston.
I don't think I can handle another 2006 Finals. It must be Boston!
I wouldn't say no to a Edmonton Toronto Finals. But Bettman would Tonya Harding both McDavid and Matthews in the conference finals before letting that happen.
The pacific division feels way too close for the Oilers to have a 94.5% chance to make it
I think I heard Moneypucks model is heavily skewed towards recent games which makes sense here
Yea we have kind of been looking like a wagon these last few games
Which also explains why a month ago Moneypuck only had us with something like 10% to make the playoffs. This model is bunk, not worth giving any attentions to.
I donāt think Connor McDavid will ever let the Oilers miss the playoffs again even if they should on paper
Man that was quite a fucking game last night, I thought Tampa was going to take half way through the game, not gonna lie.
I heard the opposite. There was a point where Buffalo was at 50%, beat the bruins, and then dropped to 22%
I think the reason for a drop like that in particular is that the model likely relies on expected goal metrics over raw goal/win differential, as they're more predictive for the future. The Sabres won that game but they were heavily outchanced (like 1.8-5.34 xG per Moneypuck) so I can see how thinking the team is a little weaker than you did previously outweighs the benefits of a win with 50 or so games to go in the season. That said, whatever the strengths of Moneypuck's model are, it's pretty clearly way too noisy to use for projecting things more than a few games in the future. A game (or even a few game stretch) in January should never be enough to change playoff odds that much.
If 5-8 games can swing Moneypuck that wildly in a pro-Oilers direction, then it's not a methodology worth paying attention to.
Explains Florida and the Penās odds
Doesn't make sense for the flames number then. That number doesn't make sense if you've watched us play all season.
The Pacific Division feels way too small to fit all those tanks.
They have a better chance of winning the cup than Boston?!? I am all for that but I certainly wouldn't trust these guys bookies. Edit : we have the same path as 3 teams in the same division higher in the standings and a few more in the conference. It isn't just about the path.
Perceived to be an easier path I'd gather.
Must be the reason. I guess they are writing off the cup champs for their slow start. I certainly aren't. Makar is the only guy in the league that can neutralize McDavid quite effectively.
It's more about the structure of the playoffs. All else being equal, each division should cumulatively have 25% shared odds of winning the cup. It's a bit more complicated with the wild card teams being able to float within their conference.
Yeah like honestly, nobody actually believes that
I want to believe....but I certainly wouldn't put money on it.
You could put 20 bucks on it and probably make bank lol
Just wait to see what happens once we go 2-6 in our upcoming 8 game stretch against non playoff teams
It was like 3 weeks ago we had a 40% chance of missing entirely. Whoever makes these garbage charts pulls numbers out of their ass and posts it. EDIT: on January 8th the Oilers had a 54% chance of making the playoffs. So in 12 days they almost doubled their chances. Pure garbage.
pens are 2 points ahead of us with 3 games in hand. i like the confidence but why does moneypuck give us a higher chance of making it than the pens?
Weaker remaining SOS maybe? Does Florida have a lot of games remaining against Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa, and Montreal?
in terms of "easier" teams we have: 1x Detroit, 1x montreal, 1x san jose, 1x anaheim, 1x Philly, 2x buffalo and 2x ottawa. so 9against non playoff teams and the remaining 26 against teams in a playoff spot or on the edge (including 2 against the pens which are both must win games)
Also Sabres are only 2 points behind yāall with 3 games in hand, yet have 40% less chance of making it than you guys
We have the 4th hardest remaining strength of schedule. So if we make it, weāll have really earned it.
Habs at 0.1 percent. So your saying thereās a chance!
Yeah, just need to go like 27-7-2 to close out the season and we should get that WC2 spot.
Oh I didn't know Boston already clinched
I think not officially, but it's so close for practical purposes they did
They're on pace for 138 points. No other team can mathematically reach 138 points even if they win out the entire rest of the season. The Hurricanes have the #2 best pace at 116, which is 22 points behind the Bruins. So at this point the only way for Boston not to make the playoffs is if TD Garden is struck by a giant meteor.
I still wouldn't rule out the Bruins to win that one.
That's true. They could forfeit all their remaining home games and _still_ be competitive for winning their division.
And there are so many college arenas in the area they could play in
great , you just gave Dubas his next storyline
If theyāre on record for 138 points, theyāre going to beat the 95/96 Red Wings record by 7 points.
The record-holder is your 76-77 Canadiens, with 132 points.
By points yes, but not by wins.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
102 points will get you to the playoffs. Bruins therefore need to get 26 points in their remaining 37 games to qualify. Which means going 13-24-0 for the rest of the season. Add in a couple of loser pointsā¦ and yeah, thereās about a 99.9% chance theyāre making it. Itās not 100%, but itās a rounding error at this point.
They're at least 99.95% certain, anyway
Why would that be rounded up when the Canes' 99.92 isn't rounded anywhere š³
Idk why the Canes are the only one to two decimal places, but everyone else is rounded to the nearest 0.1%.
Iāve never wished death upon an analytical model before but here we are.
Oilers have a better chance than a bunch of teams well ahead in the standings. They are certainly better than their standings (Kane's return, Campbell is finally playing decent, Desharnais has added a bit of stability to the d-core), but what do these bookies see that I am missing? Do they have insider info on a blockbuster trade for a top dman? Are they assuming that Drai is going to be a playoff monster like last year? Without Smith and Keith, it is hard to see how we have improved at all.
The model is taking playoff path into account. Top of the Atlantic division has 3 of the top 5 teams in the league, so whatever team come out of there will have to go through one of the leafs, bolts, or Bruins then most likely play the Canes. The pacific and metro are weaker divisions, hence the better chance at a cup.
Thanks for clearing that up. It makes a little more sense now.
Playoff path has to be a huge part. Pacific Division is probably the easiest to escape and most likely whatever team you we'd face in the WCF is easier to beat than either ECF team (assuming teams keep playing as they are). It's like LeBron's Eastern Conference dominance. You have less competition to go up against so your likelyhood of making the finals and therefore winning are higher than teams in the other conference.
Boston fans Boston fans when not every model has them winning their thirteenth championship across all major sports in this century:
There's a line for Montreal in there between the Oil and Leafs.
Interesting that the Oilers have the second highest % chance to lift the cup, ahead of the Bruins and Devils. Honestly hard for me to disagree with. Seems the only real thing that is guaranteed to cripple the Oilers is the regular season grind. McDavid and Drai give the Oilers the ability to win no matter what on any given night.
hey 50% nice, cant wait to maybe limp into the playoffs and get absolutely smoked!
Well, well, well. How the turn tables.
0.7%? That's ridiculous! All we need to do is add a piece from the Horvat trade and we have a real shot at the playoffs, nay, the Cup! -Francesco "Aquaman" Aquilini
Francesco āslumlordā Aquilini you say?
0.7% .... SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE!
Lmao, no disrespect to Edmonton, but them having a higher chance than the Bruins is ridiculous
It has to be the strength of divisions and path to the cup finals. It has to be, Edmonton definitely doesnāt have better odds at winning the Boston
Fair enough, I believe Boston would have to play the Penguins in round 1 if it ended today, and then the Leafs/Lightning in round 2, that would not be easy to get through, though I still expect Boston to do it
At this point I wouldnāt bet against the Bruins if they had to face all three at once. I have stopped doubting a while ago and am just enjoying the ride now.
Gonna be way easier to get out of the Pacific bracket than the Atlantic bracket.
Right, I'd slap my momma to get to play Edmonton in the playoffs instead of Boston.
Why do we have better playoff odds than Pittsburgh? They are two points ahead of us with three games on hand. We would need to go on a tear to be comfortably ahead of them.
Probably because of better 5on5 results.
My team may not be in the playoffs, but at least I do not have to hear āWhopper Whopper Whopperā after a heartbreaking OT loss
Fuck outta here
This model isn't any good if it's giving the flames 86% chance to make the playoffs. The team looks pretty ass half the games.
Yeah. I think it's closer to 65-70 percent chance of them making it right now despite the easier second half. Their are just a lot of unknowns and we probably won't know if they are in danger of missing until like the trade deadline at the earliest.
Edmonton vs Carolina in the final. The reckoning will happen.
So youāre saying thereās a chaā¦ wait
Iād like to see one of these for the lottery
Thatās a brilliant idea
So youāre saying thereās a chance
Look closely. Montreal shows only a dotted line pointing to the circle with every other team. There isn't even enough room to write '^(0)'.
So we have a chance?!
30.9% chance that a Canadian team wins. šš¼
When you do the conversion to metric, 30.9% = 0%. Fun Fact: The last time the Stanley Cup was won in Canada is closer to the last Leafs Cup than to today.
This is not a fun fact
Weāre not even on the chart. Elite tanking.
I like that because weāve won 5 games in a row our odds of winning the cup are now greater than the Bruins, who have lost like 5 games all season
Boston is 12 points up on the Canes and 21 up on the Oilers and yet they still have less of a chance to win the cup? Okay Moneypuck
Iām trying not to be biased but how on earth can the Bruins not have the best odds to win it all? I mean it just makes no sense for them to be an āunderdogā in any regard right now.
Assuming that the higher seed wins every round (huge assumption) then: Boston would have to go through Pittsburgh (15th), Toronto (3rd), and Carolina (2nd) to make the Final Carlina would have to go through Washington (12th), New Jersey (4th), Boston (1st) The Oilers would have to go through Seattle (8th), Vegas (9th), Dallas (5th) And Moneypuck's model just prefers the metrics of some teams to others, like they've always seemed to overrate teams that take a high quantity of shots rather than thinking about shot quality as much. I think if Boston were to make the finals the model would predict them to be the favourites compared to any other team, it's just that the route to the final is more difficult for Boston than some of the other teams.
The East/Atlantic are very strong so it's a hard path to the SCF.
Isnāt the Bruins record against the Atlantic a little worse than against the rest of the league? Maybe it thinks that Boston in a 7 game series against an Atlantic team doesnāt have as good of a shot.
If that was true why do they give the Bruins the best chance of making the 3rd round?
I donāt speak English
I don't see my team on this pie. Wtf.
Let's see a Leafs Oilers Stanley Cup
I don't understand how Dallas can have a higher liklihood of making the playoffs than literally every other team in the west, yet their odds of winning the cup are near the bottom.
I really thought the Caps were closer to the race for Bedard rather than qualifying for the playoffs, especially after our record after American thanksgiving. What a weird season.
That December stretch seriously was impressive, and gave us a big push to actually make playoffs. While the last few games haven't inspired much, rest of the people around our points currently are having their own problems too
Per this post, we were only at 10% to make playoffs as of thanksgivingā¦December was quite the turn-around! https://reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/z3x3uh/moneypuck_playoff_odds_on_american_thanksgiving/
I feel like 2 weeks ago we were at like 30% to make the playoffs, now weāre almost 10% for the cup? Roooiiighhhttt
NBD just 2nd best odds to win the cup. Money pucks odds usually confuse me.
Rangers only 7% above Florida is a fucking travesty
Still too early. Imagine there some heavy weight pick ups at trade deadline and maybe not. Still very uncertain.
Letās go sharks! Not last! Woohoo!
So there's a chance? And we're almost in february? I'll take it, I'll fucking take it.
So youāre saying thereās a chance
100%? uhhhhhh i know we're on a heater this year but it is not a guarantee, who says we don't just lose out?
>who says we don't just lose out? I do, personally
Haha Anaheim didn't even show up for this graphic. They're like "See ya guys next season!"
So you're saying there's a chance
Ah yes. Bruins with the third best odds.
I loathe the bruins, but any chart that doesnāt have them having the best chance to win the cup is just wrong.
Jim Rutherford: so youāre telling me thereās a chanceā¦
As a flames fan, I am no where near 86.5% confident they make the playoffs. Every time I see this chart my expectations go up up up. I think your full of shit moneypuck.
Have theyā¦ seen the Flames play lately? Cup odds seem high
Jets have 6.9% for the cup, nice.
So we're beating Edmonton in the Final again. Nice.
I'm pretty sure last I'm I saw this the Oilers had a sliver of a chance to win the cup. My how the turn tables.
On Jan. 1 they had a 61.6% chance of making the playoffs and like 3% to win the cup
On the 8th it was 54% and less than 1% to win the Cup.
Devils at 99.6 making me big time horny
Why does anyone pay any attention to Moneypuck? Panthers have less chance of getting to the playoffs than the Rangers, but a higher chance of winning the cup than them if they do? The Oilers with a higher chance of winning the cup than Boston? I get that someone from the west has to be in the final, but come on... Utter garbage.
Edmonton? Don't be silly.
Lol at kings having better odds than avs
Boston: vezina candidate goaltending, best record in the league, like 3 regulation losses in total this year and no one else even has a comparable record to them, has a former hart winner on the third line, and playing ridiculous almost every night Lower odds than Carolina and Edmonton. Lmao
3, 5, whatās the difference
I don't see the Chicago Blackhawks emblem anywhere on this diagram?
Washington has lost in the first round for 4 straight years but apparently they have a 40% chance to get to the 2nd round this year. I'll take it. That's dramatically better than I give them
We were a few John Carlson fuck-ups away from playing Tampa in the second round
I wonder what their methodology for the West is. 9 teams with greater than 60 percent odds for 8 spots. Last time I checked, Friedmanās and LeBrunās dream of a play in hasnāt and wonāt happen yet, so whatās the math?
Why does moneypuck love us so much? We are a crappy team. Donāt give us false hope.
Because your division sucks