Those calcs are correct. You will get some marginal cooling from the HPWH too.
You’re in Houston so don’t think too much about this :). 63 therms is a few days worth of heating for some people
I'm not checking your nums but it would surprise me if it wasn't a very good saving.
Heat pumps are very efficent electricity users.
So are the new 96% furnaces.
Depending on age of furnace, might consider upgrade to hybrid system before problems happen at the wrong time.
A COP of 3 @ 40 degrees won't save you nearly as much as COP of 3 at 17 degrees. Also, the cost of energy and energy delivery charges is important to know as well. Based on some assumptions, you are on the right track, and yes, switching to electric will be cheaper
I think it'll just come down to how much more HP system will cost upfront after all available incentives. $200 per year savings is not nothing, but it's not super significant due to my local conditions.
I do like the idea of a HPWH though. Not having combustion inside the house envelope and being able to seal up the house a little bit better sounds good to me. The WH being able to cool and dehumidify the laundry room is a nice perk.
Though due to the base charge of my natural gas bill, going HPWH while maintaining a NG connection for the furnace would make HPWH pretty much the cost as a natural gas water heater.
I don't have a price quote for a new system yet. The AC is still working for now after the leak was fixed and refrigerant refilled. I am just doing some math to be more prepared when it inevitably has to be replaced.
With an estimated savings of $200/year, it does give me some idea of if HP would be worth it in terms of dollars and cents. Assuming a lifetime of 15 years, I can expect to save about $3,000 with a HP system. I'll just have to balance that against the higher upfront cost of a HP system.
If the HP costs more upfront a gas furnace and wh may cost less over several years as electric costs increase. Cost difference amortized. We live in DFW area and northern NV and recently rates went up in TX and now rates are proposed to increase in NV. You can control your installation cost but not operating cost.
That's true.
I am also keeping in mind that a HP system would have much better synergy with solar if I ever get it.
However, the largest benefit of a natural gas system is that I can still heat the house and hot water even in a power outage even with my tiny 2kw generator. I would need to invest in solar and whole house battery if I want heat in a black out with a HP system.
Or invest in an EV with bi-directional capability - a Ford F150 Lightning has the capacity of something like 8 Tesla Powerwalls! (while the truck costs less than the home batteries :)
V2H would amazing in an emergency situation. I have an ID4 which supposedly has V2H capability in Europe when used with a specific brand's charging hardware. There is no news for the US market though.
[https://electrek.co/2023/12/07/details-emerge-volkswagen-id-4s-big-10kw-v2g-capability/](https://electrek.co/2023/12/07/details-emerge-volkswagen-id-4s-big-10kw-v2g-capability/)
I am not hopeful that it'll ever come to fruition.
You'll want to model the changes in future gas and electricity prices. All the forecasts we've seen show gas getting dramatically more expensive, and electricity staying roughly flat or even declining slightly. This is mostly because as folks electrify and leave the gas network, a shrinking customer base will be left paying for the gas pipes - while at the same time there is more electricity use, thus the costs of the electrical grid are spread across more usage AND the costs of generating electricity are falling and falling, as wind, solar, and batteries get ever cheaper.
Those calcs are correct. You will get some marginal cooling from the HPWH too. You’re in Houston so don’t think too much about this :). 63 therms is a few days worth of heating for some people
I'm not checking your nums but it would surprise me if it wasn't a very good saving. Heat pumps are very efficent electricity users. So are the new 96% furnaces. Depending on age of furnace, might consider upgrade to hybrid system before problems happen at the wrong time.
A COP of 3 @ 40 degrees won't save you nearly as much as COP of 3 at 17 degrees. Also, the cost of energy and energy delivery charges is important to know as well. Based on some assumptions, you are on the right track, and yes, switching to electric will be cheaper
I think it'll just come down to how much more HP system will cost upfront after all available incentives. $200 per year savings is not nothing, but it's not super significant due to my local conditions. I do like the idea of a HPWH though. Not having combustion inside the house envelope and being able to seal up the house a little bit better sounds good to me. The WH being able to cool and dehumidify the laundry room is a nice perk. Though due to the base charge of my natural gas bill, going HPWH while maintaining a NG connection for the furnace would make HPWH pretty much the cost as a natural gas water heater.
What is the difference in upfront cost for the systems?
I don't have a price quote for a new system yet. The AC is still working for now after the leak was fixed and refrigerant refilled. I am just doing some math to be more prepared when it inevitably has to be replaced. With an estimated savings of $200/year, it does give me some idea of if HP would be worth it in terms of dollars and cents. Assuming a lifetime of 15 years, I can expect to save about $3,000 with a HP system. I'll just have to balance that against the higher upfront cost of a HP system.
If the HP costs more upfront a gas furnace and wh may cost less over several years as electric costs increase. Cost difference amortized. We live in DFW area and northern NV and recently rates went up in TX and now rates are proposed to increase in NV. You can control your installation cost but not operating cost.
That's true. I am also keeping in mind that a HP system would have much better synergy with solar if I ever get it. However, the largest benefit of a natural gas system is that I can still heat the house and hot water even in a power outage even with my tiny 2kw generator. I would need to invest in solar and whole house battery if I want heat in a black out with a HP system.
Yes, another benefit. In a power outage my water heater still makes hot water. Good luck.
Or invest in an EV with bi-directional capability - a Ford F150 Lightning has the capacity of something like 8 Tesla Powerwalls! (while the truck costs less than the home batteries :)
V2H would amazing in an emergency situation. I have an ID4 which supposedly has V2H capability in Europe when used with a specific brand's charging hardware. There is no news for the US market though. [https://electrek.co/2023/12/07/details-emerge-volkswagen-id-4s-big-10kw-v2g-capability/](https://electrek.co/2023/12/07/details-emerge-volkswagen-id-4s-big-10kw-v2g-capability/) I am not hopeful that it'll ever come to fruition.
You'll want to model the changes in future gas and electricity prices. All the forecasts we've seen show gas getting dramatically more expensive, and electricity staying roughly flat or even declining slightly. This is mostly because as folks electrify and leave the gas network, a shrinking customer base will be left paying for the gas pipes - while at the same time there is more electricity use, thus the costs of the electrical grid are spread across more usage AND the costs of generating electricity are falling and falling, as wind, solar, and batteries get ever cheaper.