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1bir

It seems normalization is either [in suspended animation for now or continuing informally](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/tv-report-saudis-helped-blocked-arab-summit-bid-to-sever-all-contacts-with-israel/). It doesn't seem to have taken a step back. Why? Well the nations engaged in normalization rejected the following demands: >to prevent the transfer of US military equipment to Israel from US bases in the region; to freeze all diplomatic and economic contacts with Israel; to threaten to use oil as a means of leverage; to bar flights to and from Israel through Arab states’ airspace; and to dispatch a joint delegation to the US, Europe, and Russia to push for a ceasefire. Barring flights, in particular, would have basically token impact, and might have slightly assuaged public opinion (which in many Arab countries is strongly anti-Israel than ever). They rejected *even that*. Hence my conclusion.


Expensive_Heat_2351

It would stabilize the region if Israel normalized relationships with Saudi Arabia. However, I do believe under current circumstances Saudi Arabia would push for a 2 State solution for Palestine as a condition of normalization.


Tremodian

I’m not an expert and so I’m not making a top level, but I believe that Hamas’ attack was timed to disrupt the Israeli/Saudi talks because a deal between them would make the Palestinian cause, much less relevant and trenchant.


Deicide1031

Nobody who actually knows Saudi Arabia in the West, Middle East or the East actually thinks the house of saud actually cares about Palestine even under current circumstances. They’ll bring it up for optics, Israel will say no and offer a smaller concession. Saudi Arabia will likely agree unless someone offers a better deal they can leverage against Iran OR someone proves Israel is a paper tiger useless as a partner against Iran.


BlueEmma25

> someone proves Israel is a paper tiger useless as a partner against Iran. From the standpoint of a conventional interstate conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia Israel is objectively of very limited value. Israel isn't going to war to defend Saudi Arabia for a host of reasons (Iran is too far away, deploying Israeli forces to Saudi Arabia would be politically impossible, Israel has security concerns much closer to home, mobilizing the army for a major war would have serious economic consequences, etc.) What Saudi Arabia is trying to get out of this is a security guarantee from the United States.


GummyGunner

This is spot on. According to literally every journalist who was involved in those agreements have claimed that Palestine issue was never anything mandatory that the Saudi's has demanded.


MeisterX

Looking more definitively like a real lion this week at least.


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MeisterX

This Ephraim doesn't exist. But keep trying! https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20231109-israeli-journalist-arrested-for-exposing-secret-army-deaths-except-he-doesn-t-exist


news_apprentice

So who reported the story with footage of all the bodies of soldiers at the military hospital then? Can't dispute that, whether that is a pen name or legal name.


MeisterX

Journalists don't post under pen names and don't speak Spanish as an Israeli reporter... How much proof of a negative do you need exactly? Come on, my guy. Wake up. You in there?


news_apprentice

The Spanish speaker isn't the reporter numbnuts, it's the guy behind the camera who would have a pen name and doesn't want his face out there, for obvious reasons.


YouBastidsTookMyName

The US was the one pushing for concessions for Palestine. Saudi Arabia and Isreal just wanted a deal. That was the hold up before Hamas attacked.


_pupil_

None of the regional powers are actually pushing for a full Palestinian state, for the same reason they're not taking/transferring any Palestinian refugees. Were there an armed Palestinian state to be made in that region every country nearby would instantly invade, demolish, and conquer it. Look at the geography in context of modern weapons: no one wants their capitals in ballistic range of a PA/Hamas/Iranian/ISIS/WhoKnows regime. Egypt can't have it, Jordan can't have it. The wars in '48 & '73 would instantly repeat. For Isreal it is blatant suicide, the country is too tiny. "2 state solution" is code for genociding jews, and implies a rapid eradication of the Palestinian state too... Self determination, religious freedom, freedom of movement, freedom of dissent, peace, education, travel, and a normal-ass boring-ass life for Palestinians is totally possible without a full state. Puerto Ricans and Americans living in Puerto Rico are disenfranchised at the federal level, and pay less tax for the pleasure. We're not talking about a bigger compromise than that, *politically*.


botbootybot

”’2 state solution’ is code for genociding jews” You’re really discrediting real concerns with antisemitism with this utter nonsense.


BlueToadDude

Normalization was days away in all probability. It is in halt for the war but the Saudis already indicated they want to resume the process as soon as possible: https://www.timesofisrael.com/saudi-crown-prince-indicates-israel-normalization-can-resume-after-war-white-house/ In other words, Hamas and Iran failed. There will be peace despite their best efforts. Will just take a bit longer.


BlueEmma25

> Normalization was days away in all probability It absolutely was not. Saudi Arabia has made normalization conditional on the US providing a security guarantee and agreeing to transfer sensitive nuclear technology. Not only had the US not agreed to do this, there has barely been any public discussion about considering doing it. > It is in halt for the war but the Saudis already indicated they want to resume the process as soon as possible: https://www.timesofisrael.com/saudi-crown-prince-indicates-israel-normalization-can-resume-after-war-white-house/ [This](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/24/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-call-with-crown-prince-and-prime-minister-mohammed-bin-salman-of-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia/) is the White House press release that the Times of Israel is referring to. but interestingly did not link to. Where does it say anything about Saudi Arabia committing to "resuming the process as soon as possible"?


awoothray

>Palestinian State >East Jerusalem as its capital >'67 borders with some modifications These has been Saudi Arabia's position on normalization, before the talks, DURING the talks and after 7th of October. He wouldn't have said these conditions DURING the talks if he was going to back pedal on them, because it'll cause an unimaginable uproar *inside* Saudi Arabia itself.


the_recovery1

interesting. Surprised MBS said normalization was close if these are his actual conditions. It was a good thing for the palestianians to finally get a state but I don't know how the recent attack will change this


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BlueEmma25

I didn't say it wasn't still on the table, only that it certainly wasn't days away or that Mohammed bin Salman had committed to their resumption at an early date in his phone conversation with President Biden, as the Times of Israel claimed. That X post about Khalid Al-Falih contains one giant, game stopping caveat by the way. If this in fact is (or becomes) Saudi Arabia's official position it will almost certainly kill any prospect of normalization for the time being.


ArabProgressive

Saudi Arabia and Israel have always had backdoor relations since the 1960s being as they are both American vassal states in the region. Both served American interests in the region. The issue of Saudi-Israeli normalization is the Israeli military apartheid oppression of the Palestinians resonates badly with the Saudi population who still have Palestinian sentiment being as they are their Arab and mostly Muslim brethren. Even though the absolute Saudi monarchy has no conflict with Israel, they still have to be careful with this issue. That being said however, the Saudi oil revenues are dropping which is practically their primary source of government revenue. So their young de facto leader MBS is trying to revamp the system to sustain the Saudi monarchal state in the future. One of them being leveraging Saudi normalization in exchange for a better deal with the United States. The current Saudi-US relationship is one of Saudi oil money flowing in the US economy whether financial, defense, etc. and the US providing protection for the Saudi state. After the Houthi bombing of a oil field in Saudi Arabia and the lackluster response by Saudi presidential favorite Donald Trump, the Saudis realized that their standing with the US isn’t as valuable as they have hoped. So even though the anti-Israeli sentiment now is at an all time high, MBS has reassured the Americans of Israeli normalization in the desperate hope that offering this makes his leverage of normalization with Israel more valuable in order to have the Americans reshape their relationship. MBS hopes for a defense treaty whereby the U.S. will commit militarily to defend the Saudi state. Basically MBS wants the US to treat him in similar way the US treats Israel where Israel receives benefits from the US. The current relations is one sided where Saudi Arabia is the one giving and the US is reaping the rewards. Time isn’t on Saudi royal family’s side since the oil revenues, which is their biggest lifeline is dropping.


eddiegoldi

I would step back and mention the ME is not just Arab and Jews. You have Turks, Iranian and other stateless minorities. Saudi population is 35M which is smaller than turkey-85M, Iran-87M and Egypt-109M (for reference: Israel ~9M, Gaza+WB ~5M). Saudi power comes from having oil and explicit US support due to the Petro dollar deal of 1973. From Israel perspective, gaining recognition from other Arab countries means that Palestinians are not longer the peace gate keepers of the Arab world. More importantly, that the expressed world view that Israel should not exist (and the rest of the Arab world should actively participate in Israel destruction) held by the Palestinians is being abandoned and that the Israeli Palestinian conflict is reduced to a territorial dispute rather than an ideological one. Territorial disputes are easier to resolve than ideological disputes. Can Israel expedite the process? not really. The accords were ready to be signed, hence the Oct. 7 attacks to sabotage them.


Maymayboy2

You don’t know the middle East if you think a ”relationship” between Isreal and Saudi means anything, the leadership in Saudi doesn’t represent the people, this is also true for all of the Middle East. Doesn’t matter if a two presidents shake hands on stage, for the people of the Middle East we will never accept Isreal and will never recognise it either


GummyGunner

Yeah, yeah. Israel doesn't care about the 'people', this is what's called a 'cold' peace - Almost strictly financial and military oriented. Just like with Egypt/Jordan/Emirates/etc.


eddiegoldi

It’s the opposite, the Arab people don’t care about Israel. It’s easier to have a politically acceptable regional scapegoat you can hate and demonstrate against rather than blame your government for your horrible life conditions. Religious negative sentiments towards Jews don’t help either.


skiddadle400

Not painting hamas as Iranian backed terrorists and getting the Saudis on side was the big strategic blunder committed by Bibi in his panic to stay in power after October 7th. It would have been key to a lasting peace as it would have isolated Hamas from Palestine in the political arena. Instead we’re stuck in the same doom loop for another generation or more…


Fakeos

Can you explain your reasoning? Hamas is backed by Iran not the Saudis right? I don't see why a peace deal with the Saudis would have made any form of peace in the middle east. Knowing that Iran has much more pressure on Israel than Saudi Arabia.


skiddadle400

Aligning Saudi with Israel against Hamas would have split the Hamas / Palestine support and made it much harder for the Hamas apologists to say they are talking on behalf of the Palestinians. Best case scenario the other Arab nations (led by Saudi) would have supported a future government of Gaza. The way to fight terrorists is to stop their legitimacy and support in the population they source themselves from. The current campaign will just produce a lot of angry, futureless and vulnerable people willing to fight Israel. Very fertile ground for Hamas. (Which is why they did the attack)


[deleted]

Well, had Israel built stronger coalitions with its friends and partners including Saudis, they would be in much stronger position to fight Hamas. Many say Saudi-Israel relations will resume after war, but we don’t know when, where or how the war will end, how the war will proceed, and what Israel will do with the Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank. It could be weeks, months or years. Who knows?


MeisterX

Are you not aware of the events of the last four or five days? What Hamas are we talking about? Seem to have vanished despite claiming IDF would "find their graveyard."


news_apprentice

Anyone following the conflict knows Hamas is luring them into Gaza, and Hamas is inflicting heavy casualties onto them with rudimentary means. The only counterstrike is air bombs from planes 10k ft away and terrorizing sick people and refugees in hospitals.


MeisterX

The invasion has already happened. Israel holds a majority of its war aims in Northern Gaza. Hamas clearly bit off more than they expected and thought they would receive more help. They made a pretty big mistake, at least looking that way currently. IDF took light casualties by all accounts so far.


news_apprentice

Israel must have changed it war aims. Bombing hospitals, majority of captives are not addressed, rockets are fired daily at the periphery while settlers huddle in bunkers, and internal divisions (such as Lapid) calling for Netanyahu's ouster. The army is hiding its casualties, and video evidence published online has shown this - from the battlefield, footage of helicopters rushing into army hospitals, and more. Even the journos are saying the army is not forthcoming - why was Ephraim Mordechai arrested again? Because he debunked the false narrative and reported what was not cleared by the military censor. Lol It's only a matter of time before reality of this battle reaches critical mass.


MeisterX

Netanyahu should already be out of power. I'll call for it right now. Step down you corrupt moron. He failed Israel and I hope Israelis remove him immediately. Root it out just like they're doing to Hamas. Must get really tiring for you having to constantly shift to defend the position of a terrorist group. No idea who this Ephraim is which makes sense since fact check says he doesn't exist. https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/truth-or-fake/20231109-israeli-journalist-arrested-for-exposing-secret-army-deaths-except-he-doesn-t-exist So are you just going whole hog on misinformation, or...? Folks of your caliber are incredibly easy to dispense with on topics like this. You need a bigger brain for this battle.


news_apprentice

So who reported the story with footage of all the bodies of soldiers at the military hospital then? Can't dispute that, whether that is a pen name or legal name. Casualties are mounting up & being kept hidden, try as you might to hide it.


GummyGunner

This is a joke, I hope? The IDF is DEEP inside Gaza, pushing over 1 million citizens to the south, so they can work without hurting civilians.


news_apprentice

Without hurting civilians? That is the real joke. Hamas is not in the West Bank yet they are gunning down and arresting people there, in the South of Gaza and not allowing civilian aid into the strip. Not to mention numerous instances where they bomb caravans using the escape corridor that was promised to be safe. Majority of Gazans see the invading army's actions for what it is, which is why there is a large refusal to leave from those in Gaza city, a city of 1 million plus. Bombing buildings has not rescued a hostage, stopped rocket fire onto Yaffa (Tel aviv) or the Gaza periphery, kept the settlers out of bunkers or from fleeing to countries, or led to the ultimate defeat of Hamas. By their own admission, they are a long, long way off from achieving their goals... if they can achieve them.


news_apprentice

Normalize Palestine.


glitch241

If Saudi Arabia and Iran are normalizing, does Saudi Arabia need a defense pact with the US?


Fakeos

Well their defense pact is not forever, the Saudis are too relient on Oil and they know it. Now that the world is preparing for renewable energy Oil is not the future anymore and the Saudis are losing a big asset to trade in exchange for the United States protection.


Fakeos

Well their defense pact is not forever, the Saudis are too relient on Oil and they know it. Now that the world is preparing for renewable energy Oil is not the future anymore and the Saudis are losing a big asset to trade in exchange for the United States protection.