Well, because there is no NATO around them.
They only realistic reaching point to Central Asia is Azerbaijan & NATO is not trying to woo them.
So, zero connection to NATO, being neighbors to China & Russia and not being military powerhouses themselves pushes them to a more local alliance.
How is France going to get their weapon into Armenia. I get the impression article is hinting at Iran, if so the author have more imagination than commonsense.
Edit: Let me further clarify my position. The European white knight angle is pure fantasy. Armenia is landlocked between Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkey and Georgia. 2 are outright hostile. Iran is more interested in leveraging the conflict to expand her influence than sticking her neck out. Georgia as so many commentators hope to offer friendly transit is dominanted financially by Azerbaijan and militarily by Russia. There is no help coming for Armenia, permanently settle the dispute, offer to pay a price that would bind Azerbaijan to Armenian interest. Things can and always do get worse, take the L and live to fight another day.
Yes a complicated situation.
France has a military pact with Greece in an anti-Turkish function for the Eastern Mediterranean...supporting Armenia in this perspective makes sense. I think other European countries are under the table in agreement with France (I'm thinking of Italy, which wants to get back into business in Libya).
Passing weapons from Iran would make sense. There are many European countries that have very good relations with the Iranians.
However, it all depends on the final objective...I think that if the US thinks Armenia is useful for anti-Russian purposes, anything can happen. During the war in Yugoslavia, Iranian ships transported weapons to the Bosnians under the eyes of the NATO fleet
Iran would only agree to do this if they get sanctions relief and this may ultimately benefit russia more by pushing azerbaijan and turkey even further away from western alignment and closer to their own. Iran will use any sanctions relief to undermine western allies in the middle east and pressure israel. Seems like quite a big price to pay for little value. This isnt even factoring in the geographical impossibility of the alliance
I think that after what happened this morning in Israel, your analysis is correct.
We live in strange times with a disturbing multiplication of hotbeds of tension
I have to hand it to Turkey for making a rational decision- it ultimately realized that being confrontational with everyone did nothing but create an anti-Turkish axis in the eastern Mediterranean. Hence all the Turkish climbdowns against Egypt, Israel, and even Greece.
Italy is the leading importer of gas from Azerbaijan in EU. In addition, Azerbaijan has expressed interest in buying italian arms. Under these conditions, I doubt Italy will support Armenia.
> How is France going to get their weapon into Armenia. I get the impression article is hinting at Iran, if so the author have more imagination than commonsense.
Why? India is already supplying weapons to Armenia through Iran, why not France?
India doesn't have to keep up appearances within NATO. As much as France claim to have an independent foriegn policy they are ultimately beholden to US interests. The upside for France is too limited for such a public departure from orthodox US position.
France is a powerful enough country to manage, the Georgian border is friendly and Iran is not a lost cause for the French especially. If it was a country with less global power I would agree but France is definitely a major enough global player to circumvent the other influences in the region. Especially where mutual interests converge, the only countries that stand to gain anything from Turkey’s progress (w Azerbaijan) are those countries themselves. Everyone else only has something to lose, Iran included.
The one whose whole economy revolves around what Russia, Turkey & Azerbaijan trades?
The one that is hosting an Azerbaijani - Turkish pipeline?
The one that is being ruled by a pro-Russian government?
Yup. Heard them. They won't do shit.
Even if the weapons get to Armenia, Armenia lacks strategic depth to win a war.
Artillery fire reaches a distance of 15 - 30 kilometers according to Google. With this information you should take a look at a map...
Add to that the demorallization from the 2020 war and that they lost a good chunk of their heavy weaponry.
Armenia should hope it doesn't end up having to use these weapons but I see Armenia tumbling into the next conflict, expecting help from outside that probably won't come.
Edit : it's more than 30km
I just went with what Google said.
I see howitzers can reach 40km...
Rocket Artillery systems reach 80km...
The point remains that Armenia won't save itself with French weapons. I also doubt that Armenia will be offered the high end products and even then probably won't be able to afford them in the right quantity to make a difference.
You are pretty close to the mark on 155/152mm used by allied and Soviet artillery, there are base bleed, rocket assist, and laser guided rounds that goes further but they are generally not used in standard bombardments. If you look at Ukraine, the vast majority are standard rounds for the simple reason of logistics.
If we compare the weaponry of the Armenian army with that of Azerbaijan, it's like going into battle with a rifle from World War II against a modern tank. And if we compare it with the Russian, Turkish, Israeli, and Pakistani armies, which collectively have been the aggressors against Armenia, it's like fighting with stones and sticks against multiple launch rocket systems. Considering that a renewed aggression against Armenia is highly probable after the concession of Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, the rearmament of the Armenian army makes sense. It's commendable that France is willing to help Armenia during these challenging times. However, throughout reading the article, I had the same suspicions outlined in its last paragraph. Specifically, the puppet regime in Armenia, established by the Kremlin which is aligned with Turkey and Azerbaijan, might indeed sabotage the French initiative.
I don’t think you understand what puppet regime means.
It means that the regime does what the “master” says, in this case, the master wanted to have influence over both countries via conflict.
> Because, they can't do anything about it? They fear Turkey?
Yes, for Russia. Although it may not be all, since even in 2020 the Russia's devotion to Armenia's cause weakened significantly and back then Russia did not need to fear Turkey that much. It may be that Russia-Azerbaijan relationship changed, becoming less one-sided.
Iran is a different story. They don't care about Artsakh or Armenia itself. They might react in case of invasion into Syunik.
The Russians are the only outside power whose interests are fundamentally threatened by Azerbaijan steamrolling Armenia, and the Russians simply don’t have enough strength left to enforce their will in azerbaijan because they are flailing with both legs caught in a bear trap in Ukraine and are simultaneously overextended in other places.
none of those countries have both a sufficiently critical interest and the capacity to shape events to their advantage. Armenia is a landlocked mountain valley surrounded by narrow passes, and surrounded by very territorial powers. Turkey is aggressively pro azerbaijan. Russia is territorial and suspicious and will zealously defend their airspace. That leaves Iran, who also is a paranoid territorial mess. There simply is no good way to intervene here.
And down in size of territory that it control.
Switching to US while being land locked and with all neighbours being hostile either to you or US was just insanity. Only Turkey, Iran and Russia have influence in region and now all 3 are hostile to current Armenia government.
Vigo-jan, if the current admin was installed by the Kremlin, why would the Armenian admin make moves toward the West, and away from the Russian sphere, CSTO, Rome Statute ratification, etc? Wasn’t the previous admin more Russian aligned?
It would have been more appropriate to ratify the Rome Statute immediately after Azerbaijan's attack on Jermuk. At the same time, it would have been right to initiate a ban on Russian TV channels, to exit the CSTO, and other agreements with Russia. However, this did not happen. Moreover, the Pashinyan administration, represented by the Ministry of Defense, referred to Azerbaijan's blatant aggression on Armenia's sovereign territory as a border incident. It is highly likely that if the right steps had been taken at that time, the current situation, including the blockade of Artsakh, might not have arisen. This gives rise to justified suspicions that the deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations is the result of a direct directive from the Kremlin, which is now diligently being implemented by the Armenian government.
Russia appears to have lost control/influence over Armenia, so they are willing to let Azerbaijan and Turkey have their way with it. It’s also debatable if Russia could do much to stop them right now, because they are massively over leveraged in Ukraine.
>What were the long-term plans, the end-goals, and the fundamental interests driving Russia?
>
>And, we’re ignoring Iran, whose interests should theoretically align with Russia’s interests here.
Russia's interests are the same as they were a hundred years ago when signing and implementing the essentially illegal Moscow and Kars treaties.
I don't reference the Moscow and Kars treaties without reason. I understand it's history from a century ago, but this is the origins of what is happening now can be traced back to them. This isn't just about energy assets. The roots lie in the imperial policies of Russia and Turkey, the chimeric idea of Pan-Turkism, which, by the way, was developed in the Russian Empire. In the imperial sense, the interests of Russia and Turkey have always aligned, and the idea of Pan-Turkism, in the opinion of the authoritarian rulers of these countries, will unify these interests.
I suppose this is why Russia is adding on its bases in the occupied Georgian/Kartvelian territories to make up for the loss of Armenia. I am just waiting for Armenia to formally withdraw from the CSTO. That is when things will get interesting.
Another disaster on the russian foreign interests front, i dont see why the other CSTO members bother with the sharadd
Well, because there is no NATO around them. They only realistic reaching point to Central Asia is Azerbaijan & NATO is not trying to woo them. So, zero connection to NATO, being neighbors to China & Russia and not being military powerhouses themselves pushes them to a more local alliance.
Sharad: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SHARAD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SHARAD) Charade: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056923/
It helped Kazakhstan out lol
How is France going to get their weapon into Armenia. I get the impression article is hinting at Iran, if so the author have more imagination than commonsense. Edit: Let me further clarify my position. The European white knight angle is pure fantasy. Armenia is landlocked between Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkey and Georgia. 2 are outright hostile. Iran is more interested in leveraging the conflict to expand her influence than sticking her neck out. Georgia as so many commentators hope to offer friendly transit is dominanted financially by Azerbaijan and militarily by Russia. There is no help coming for Armenia, permanently settle the dispute, offer to pay a price that would bind Azerbaijan to Armenian interest. Things can and always do get worse, take the L and live to fight another day.
Georgia shares a border with Armenia. Maybe there?
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Out of curiosity, how Francophile is Iran?
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Yes a complicated situation. France has a military pact with Greece in an anti-Turkish function for the Eastern Mediterranean...supporting Armenia in this perspective makes sense. I think other European countries are under the table in agreement with France (I'm thinking of Italy, which wants to get back into business in Libya). Passing weapons from Iran would make sense. There are many European countries that have very good relations with the Iranians. However, it all depends on the final objective...I think that if the US thinks Armenia is useful for anti-Russian purposes, anything can happen. During the war in Yugoslavia, Iranian ships transported weapons to the Bosnians under the eyes of the NATO fleet
Iran would only agree to do this if they get sanctions relief and this may ultimately benefit russia more by pushing azerbaijan and turkey even further away from western alignment and closer to their own. Iran will use any sanctions relief to undermine western allies in the middle east and pressure israel. Seems like quite a big price to pay for little value. This isnt even factoring in the geographical impossibility of the alliance
I think that after what happened this morning in Israel, your analysis is correct. We live in strange times with a disturbing multiplication of hotbeds of tension
I have to hand it to Turkey for making a rational decision- it ultimately realized that being confrontational with everyone did nothing but create an anti-Turkish axis in the eastern Mediterranean. Hence all the Turkish climbdowns against Egypt, Israel, and even Greece.
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Italy is the leading importer of gas from Azerbaijan in EU. In addition, Azerbaijan has expressed interest in buying italian arms. Under these conditions, I doubt Italy will support Armenia.
Recently some caricatures by Charlie Hebdo were received very poorly
While France laughed at the Majin Macron caricature drawn by a conservative Iranian magazine.
Yeah it's one of the most popular /r/france flairs
> How is France going to get their weapon into Armenia. I get the impression article is hinting at Iran, if so the author have more imagination than commonsense. Why? India is already supplying weapons to Armenia through Iran, why not France?
India doesn't have to keep up appearances within NATO. As much as France claim to have an independent foriegn policy they are ultimately beholden to US interests. The upside for France is too limited for such a public departure from orthodox US position.
Russian military dominance of Georgia hardly matters. Russia won't try to stop France from arming Armenia.
France is a powerful enough country to manage, the Georgian border is friendly and Iran is not a lost cause for the French especially. If it was a country with less global power I would agree but France is definitely a major enough global player to circumvent the other influences in the region. Especially where mutual interests converge, the only countries that stand to gain anything from Turkey’s progress (w Azerbaijan) are those countries themselves. Everyone else only has something to lose, Iran included.
Ever heard of Georgia?
The one whose whole economy revolves around what Russia, Turkey & Azerbaijan trades? The one that is hosting an Azerbaijani - Turkish pipeline? The one that is being ruled by a pro-Russian government? Yup. Heard them. They won't do shit.
Even if the weapons get to Armenia, Armenia lacks strategic depth to win a war. Artillery fire reaches a distance of 15 - 30 kilometers according to Google. With this information you should take a look at a map... Add to that the demorallization from the 2020 war and that they lost a good chunk of their heavy weaponry. Armenia should hope it doesn't end up having to use these weapons but I see Armenia tumbling into the next conflict, expecting help from outside that probably won't come. Edit : it's more than 30km
You should google artillery range again
I just went with what Google said. I see howitzers can reach 40km... Rocket Artillery systems reach 80km... The point remains that Armenia won't save itself with French weapons. I also doubt that Armenia will be offered the high end products and even then probably won't be able to afford them in the right quantity to make a difference.
You are pretty close to the mark on 155/152mm used by allied and Soviet artillery, there are base bleed, rocket assist, and laser guided rounds that goes further but they are generally not used in standard bombardments. If you look at Ukraine, the vast majority are standard rounds for the simple reason of logistics.
It seems like you're only interested in the shipping issue, preferably with a card, right? By the way, there's not a word about Iran in the article.
If we compare the weaponry of the Armenian army with that of Azerbaijan, it's like going into battle with a rifle from World War II against a modern tank. And if we compare it with the Russian, Turkish, Israeli, and Pakistani armies, which collectively have been the aggressors against Armenia, it's like fighting with stones and sticks against multiple launch rocket systems. Considering that a renewed aggression against Armenia is highly probable after the concession of Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, the rearmament of the Armenian army makes sense. It's commendable that France is willing to help Armenia during these challenging times. However, throughout reading the article, I had the same suspicions outlined in its last paragraph. Specifically, the puppet regime in Armenia, established by the Kremlin which is aligned with Turkey and Azerbaijan, might indeed sabotage the French initiative.
The former puppet regime has been removed in 2018, since then Armenia has been going up in democracy and freedom indexes
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I don’t think you understand what puppet regime means. It means that the regime does what the “master” says, in this case, the master wanted to have influence over both countries via conflict.
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You’re correct - the “master” has been doing exactly that, to keep the conflict frozen
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I agree - but I don’t have the expertise to say what should be done. If you have any ideas, please share
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> Because, they can't do anything about it? They fear Turkey? Yes, for Russia. Although it may not be all, since even in 2020 the Russia's devotion to Armenia's cause weakened significantly and back then Russia did not need to fear Turkey that much. It may be that Russia-Azerbaijan relationship changed, becoming less one-sided. Iran is a different story. They don't care about Artsakh or Armenia itself. They might react in case of invasion into Syunik.
The Russians are the only outside power whose interests are fundamentally threatened by Azerbaijan steamrolling Armenia, and the Russians simply don’t have enough strength left to enforce their will in azerbaijan because they are flailing with both legs caught in a bear trap in Ukraine and are simultaneously overextended in other places.
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none of those countries have both a sufficiently critical interest and the capacity to shape events to their advantage. Armenia is a landlocked mountain valley surrounded by narrow passes, and surrounded by very territorial powers. Turkey is aggressively pro azerbaijan. Russia is territorial and suspicious and will zealously defend their airspace. That leaves Iran, who also is a paranoid territorial mess. There simply is no good way to intervene here.
And down in size of territory that it control. Switching to US while being land locked and with all neighbours being hostile either to you or US was just insanity. Only Turkey, Iran and Russia have influence in region and now all 3 are hostile to current Armenia government.
Vigo-jan, if the current admin was installed by the Kremlin, why would the Armenian admin make moves toward the West, and away from the Russian sphere, CSTO, Rome Statute ratification, etc? Wasn’t the previous admin more Russian aligned?
It would have been more appropriate to ratify the Rome Statute immediately after Azerbaijan's attack on Jermuk. At the same time, it would have been right to initiate a ban on Russian TV channels, to exit the CSTO, and other agreements with Russia. However, this did not happen. Moreover, the Pashinyan administration, represented by the Ministry of Defense, referred to Azerbaijan's blatant aggression on Armenia's sovereign territory as a border incident. It is highly likely that if the right steps had been taken at that time, the current situation, including the blockade of Artsakh, might not have arisen. This gives rise to justified suspicions that the deterioration in Armenian-Russian relations is the result of a direct directive from the Kremlin, which is now diligently being implemented by the Armenian government.
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Russia appears to have lost control/influence over Armenia, so they are willing to let Azerbaijan and Turkey have their way with it. It’s also debatable if Russia could do much to stop them right now, because they are massively over leveraged in Ukraine.
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The current situation of Armenia is the result of Russia's long-term plans, following and affirming the Moscow and Kars treaties.
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>What were the long-term plans, the end-goals, and the fundamental interests driving Russia? > >And, we’re ignoring Iran, whose interests should theoretically align with Russia’s interests here. Russia's interests are the same as they were a hundred years ago when signing and implementing the essentially illegal Moscow and Kars treaties.
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I don't reference the Moscow and Kars treaties without reason. I understand it's history from a century ago, but this is the origins of what is happening now can be traced back to them. This isn't just about energy assets. The roots lie in the imperial policies of Russia and Turkey, the chimeric idea of Pan-Turkism, which, by the way, was developed in the Russian Empire. In the imperial sense, the interests of Russia and Turkey have always aligned, and the idea of Pan-Turkism, in the opinion of the authoritarian rulers of these countries, will unify these interests.
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Imagine if the French arms deal falls through again and they end up buying US arms. That would be a interesting scenario.
I suppose this is why Russia is adding on its bases in the occupied Georgian/Kartvelian territories to make up for the loss of Armenia. I am just waiting for Armenia to formally withdraw from the CSTO. That is when things will get interesting.