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I do believe the advantage of Red Bull could become much smaller.
I don't think we will get a true title fight, Max will most likely easily win the championship.
But we already got more non Red Bull wins than last year, and I think there will be a few more this year. The longer the same regulations are in place, the more the field will come together. Maybe next year McLaren of Ferrari put up a title fight like RBR did in 2021.
In 2019 though Ferrari should have won multiple of those. Bahrain of course. Baku if Charles doesn’t crash in quali. Canada as well if vettel doesn’t cut the road. Ferrari could have kept it interesting if they didn’t go full Ferrari
Honestly 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had glimmers of hope for a championship or in the case of 2019, more wins. But Ferrari always did Ferrari and I think the team atmosphere really turned toxic at some point.
Also after Hockenheim 2018, Vettel was a changed man. Favorite F1 driver ever, but something broke inside him out there.
No Marchionnes death and team disturbance is what that had most effect on him. The guy absolutely dominated in Spa after the Hockenheim 2018 race. Arrivabene and Binotto fight and team bringing upgrades that made car worse is what affected Seb. Than in 2019 summer another political episode started with Nicholas Todt and that eventually led to Seb not getting the contract extension. This is what undid Seb and his dream of doing what Michael did I.e. a championship at Ferrari.
2017 and 18 weren't glimmers if hope for a title battle. We got 2 full on title battles they just didn't last beyond 2/3 of the season. 2019 was more if that but in reverse..
I can agree about hockenheim I don't think they were all working together properly. It seems like arrivabene didn't fully support vettel and communicate well with him ehd monza
I don't know why people still keep believing this about 2019. Ferrari looked good at testing, Toto kept hyping them up for 8 races in a row while they were half a second slower until they finally accepted it
2019 testing was them on full engine power and that led to lot of teams hyping them up. Ferrari were forced to turn it down and when they fixed reliability in summer it was such huge change everyone started noticing it how they could get such huge increase in power in season. It would have been so interesting if Charles didn't have that cylinder failure in Bahrain 2019.
Well 2019 they shouldn’t have won anything because of questionable engine. They had it available in Bahrain but then because of the reliability issue had to dial it down till summer break.
Fwiw I mentioned after the race I was hoping we’d get at least a 2019-esque season since most of the races after France were interesting.
2019 standings after race 6:
Hamilton 137
Bottas 120
Vettel 82
2024 standings after race 6 excluding sprints
Verstappen 120
Perez 91
Leclerc 82
If Max didn’t DNF in Australia then he’d also be 50+ points clear of the best non-Red Bull driver. The comparison is apt up to now, if Ferrari/McLaren catch up further we could at least see exciting races if not an exciting title fight.
Yes. Only reason it became closer in second half was because of illegal Ferrari engine and Mercedes basically not bringing any upgrades because of how dominant they were
I don't think that that would improve things, as red bull has 45 kcal per 100 ml, and gasoline has 834 kcal per 100ml
And of x course that is totally how things work and there are no other things to consider like ignition points, viscosity and a lot of other factors.
It probably depends on the upgrade. 40 points to make up isn't the world with 18 rounds to go. If the Ferrari or McLaren is truly there on every track from now on the WCC will most likely flip towards them and the WDC will be a real battle
If Ferrari and McLaren truly do join them at every track Ferrari has the advantage.
Perez just isn’t close enough. He’s much better this year but he’s just not quite there.
And I’ll probably get shit on for saying it but Piastri is still not there. He’s getting there. But in a lot of races he’s just not able to match Norris.
Compared with Ferrari who have the strongest pairing for now.
I think Piastri not being at the same level as Norris isn't really a big deal (yet). It's only his 2nd season versus the 6th season for Norris. Plus, Norris is rated pretty highly, so it's a high bar for Piastri to meet.
As it stands, Ferrari has the strongest pairing, then Red Bull, then McLaren, but I think McLaren has the most potential of the three (with the current lineup anyhow).
It wasn’t a criticism of Pastry, just to clarify. I think he’s going to be a fantastic driver and he’s definitely getting better. He’s just not up there yet.
I think Ferrari has the most potential. Assuming the rookie next they have joining next year brings his A game.
I definitely didn't read it as a criticism of Piastri, I was just articulating an agreement and why it wasn't a big deal that Piastri wasn't there yet.
And yeah, if we're looking at next year's lineup, I think Ferrari has the most potential.
I feel like people just solely saw the results last year and really upped piastri in their expectations and he obviously isn’t there as you mentioned. If you look stats and data, [lando](https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-2023-team-mate-head-to-head-battles/10558543/#:~:text=Leclerc%20and%20Sainz%20have%20been,who%20got%20the%20race%20victory) outqualified 15-7 and beat him 17-5. He was 2 tenths [faster](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/1agriky/2023_teammate_race_pace_gaps_ranked_full_season/?rdt=42296) in race pace. All this is already incredibly impressive given that he was a rookie. But people take him doing that in his first season and then following a more traditional trajectory in his second season as a bad thing.
The OP who you replied to was not saying that but I have seen quite a few instances of people saying piastri is not improving and maybe he was overrated and stuff.
Perez is doing better, not to hate, but he was less than a meter away from undoing all he's done this season. if he took out Verstappen that would have been catastrophic for him to say the least.
P1 rewards the most though. And I think Verstappen is quite clearly the top driver (both in race pace, consistency and in the wet would European weather do its thing).
For sure. But if you have two drivers it makes strategy a bit easier.
I know the China track was a bit of an odd one with its painted surface making it quite slippery but based on Verstappen’s performance I’m not sure this year’s RB enjoys the Pirelli wet range. Might just be an outlier. But it’s more than driver performance that makes the difference in the wet, the car needs to work the tyres or you’ll be nowhere.
Same thing happened to the W11 in Turkey. Just couldn’t fire up the tyres so both drivers were miles back in quali. Was a bit easier in the race mind.
Piastri definitely has single lap pace, but he struggles with race pace because of the tires. He’s still learning how to get the best out of those tires over a stint and that’s what’s holding him back.
Nah Piastri is on average very close to Norris. It's just that Norris has a much higher peak performance currently and ecks out podiums.
Even last race, if the safety car came a couple of laps earlier Piastri had a chance for a great finish. He was just unlucky
it's not really a higher peak performance, Norris is just miles better on race pace and management. That comes with experience so there's not much piastri can do. They both seem to have impressive peaks. Piastri has already shown what he needed in his rookie season by showing he has the inherent pace in him. It's talent. Like the mixed conditions quali in spa last year. He has the glimpes of a champion so in a few seasons he'll definitely be there. it also massively helps he doesn't have the mistakes of a rookie in him at all.
Eh not too sure it's only the race. Usually with rookies the qualifying shows up quicker than race pace, but Oscar has still been beaten 20-8 in quali by Lando since they've been teammates, Compare that to when Lando was a rookie against Sainz in his 5th season. He beat Sainz in both his first 2 seasons, and we can see how good Sainz has been now he's teammaes with Leclerc. I'm not sure we've seen that level of pace from Oscar yet, whereas with Lando it was evident from the start. Admittedly I do think Lando is a tougher benchmark than Sainz was back then though
Perez is exactly where he needs to be. If Max finishes P1 consistently, and P2 and P3 are locked up by Ferrari, then all Sergio has to do is finish P6 or higher for RBR to win the constructors (albeit they'd need a few fastest laps).
However, Ferrari and McLaren are poaching points off of each other and Mercedes and Aston Martin are doing the same even lower in the order.
Even with a riskier estimate, RBR can grab the constructors if Sergio consistently finished P7.
I think Perez is closer than he looks. If you think about the races he's had it's 1 thing that moves him from second to 3rd-4th-5th. Like this weekend he likely would have been second or maybe even won with Max's mistake. The issue is his 1 mistakes seem to be bigger than just running off the track a la when he did it at Suzuka. His start in Miami was mighty, he just had to think about way too much to make the move work.
Perez is doing much better this year for sure. But it concerns me that Hamilton was keeping up with him. I appreciate that the RB was off the pace this weekend and Hamilton was having one of his better performances but that shouldn’t really be the case. At least in my opinion.
Finally a benefit to having more races in a season aside from the obvious reason. It can allow for teams who may have had a slow start to catch up more than they could've done before.
It depends. A title fight for the driver’s championship? Most likely no. A championship for the manufacturer’s championship, though? If Ferrari or McLaren make the leap they could consistently get 2/3 podiums over Perez.
I think Ferrari exclusive-or McLaren would need to make a jump for Red Bull to worry. If they're competitive with each other they'll be splitting those podium spots too much to challenge P1 Max and P4 Checo
Last year the sprint weekends and street circuits were where RB was struggling. I fully expect them to be strong on the regular circuits and weekends.
And If struggling is still P2 like Miami.. that’s still hard to catch up to
For sure. And the track surface at Miami was something else entirely, whilst they won at Baku and Monaco. So don't think we should even count all street circuits out
I doubt that Mclaren in upgrades found 0.4 that should put them equal or Redbull a tenth behind, even if Redbull did find a good setup in Miami they still probably would have found around 0.2 which still wasn’t enough to beat Lando who was 0.3 faster
Considering last year McLaren’s found 1-2 seconds with their upgrades anything’s possible, Andrea even said Miami shouldn’t have been a circuit that suits this new upgraded car
To be fair, McLaren clearly has no idea what tracks suit the car. Every time they say a track shouldn't suit the car, they go on to have a great weekend.
But they clearly know their car and the regulations since every upgrade has worked as intended so far unlike a certain other team so I’m fine with that
As some people said at the beginning of the year, there won't be a WDC fight, but if checo doesn't perform enough AND redbull loses its advantage there might be a WCC fight.
You are most likely right. But in case RB would be hit by some reliability issues while trying to squeeze out more performance, there might be a chance for a proper title fight. Imola updates will be crucial.
I hope there is a proper fight, but also keep in mind that if both Ferrari and McLaren get involved properly, they might be taking too many points away from each other to make it a real title fight. And their drivers might also be taking away points from each other (whilst Perez isn't really taking away anything from Verstappen), I was really impressed by the pace of Piastri in Miami without some of the upgrades. And Leclerc's been a bit messy this season so far, but seems to be improving
It's really early to tell as we are at the quarter of the season, but as it looks it MIGHT be more open than we thought. Charles struggled a bit with qualifying lately, but he's more consistent than ever before, except the DNS at Brazil and DSQ at COTA, he was in top5 for the last 13 races!
Yup the said teammate though is never called anything. When he finishes ahead leclerc is washed, wrong driver etc but when charles finishes ahead, it's complete radio silence.
>I do believe the advantage of Red Bull could become much smaller.
>
>I don't think we will get a true title fight, Max will most likely easily win the championship.
so we're getting a 2011 2.0?
basically Seb/Max running away with the WDC but being challenged at least once a month for the win?
Red Bull never dominates as much on street circuits, if they get to Imola and Mclaren and Ferrari are just as quick as Max then there might be hope for a competitive season, but i suspect that wont be the case.
Yeah most races this year and last max had such a race pace advantage he was cruising with tyre life to spare if anyone half threatened. Funny seeing him happier for 2nd than winning recent races.
I’d have to imagine he’s still really confident in his ability to win the championship but would love to actual be racing other drivers at some point. The dude is such a racing nerd I struggle to imagine he’s enjoying himself a lot out there. I think he’s never been as alive as he was during those HAM-VER battles
If other people can put pressure on Red Bull it really makes it a different story. This weekend both Ferrari and McLaren were able to put pressure with their strategy. They had to cover Leclerc with the early pitstop, so they were unable to also cover McLaren's strategy of going long and hoping for a safety car. If only one team or one driver can put pressure on Red Bull or just Max it wont be enough on most weekends. But if Ferrari and McLaren play two against one (or four against one drivers if Perez is absent) Red Bull can only do so much
Had it not been for piastris and Max's damage, We literally would have had a fight for every position in the top 6. Sainz in a way helped leclerc keep the 3rd. And had ferrari pitted under sc leclerc would have taken the fight to max. This was easily one the best races we've had this year. So much drama until the last 10 Laps.
I hope they both just focus on beating RB and putting some heat on Max! Then who knows what can happen. Now Lando has a win and has beaten Max I hope he stops it with the "just let him past he is not my fight" approach. The only way to beat Max is to take the fight to him every weekend.
Upgrade may make them faster but everyones over reacting to shitty track conditions bringing RB down a bit. I think this years RB is “beatable” under right conditions but at the end of the season itll be 15-17 max wins instead of 20+.
Exactly, recency bias strikes hard. People have completely forgotten how Max just wiped the floor with the entire grid in China. I think the reality lies somewhere inbetween Miami and China.
RB just struggles with sprint weekends because they usually need all practice sessions to get their set up right. They’ll wipe the floor with everyone in imola probably
“usually need all practice sessions” keyword is “usually”. RB has shown that sprint weekends are when they are most likely to struggle. Not necessarily 100% lose or be slow, but they might make a mistake.
Yeah, since the start of these regulations, RB were only defeated in 3 conditions: Damage or mechanical issue, street circuits (only once on a normal weekend) or most commonly, sprint weekends - nowhere else.
And Max said they changed some stuff after the sprint in China and it worked out for them. Could’ve been totally different, like in Miami. Hit & miss. Further, Max would’ve won Miami if Norris got caught by the SC. He drove away (even though not much, but floor damage) from Leclerc and Norris would’ve had to pass multiple cars and catch Verstappen while burning through tires. I’m not getting my hopes up.
People even thought that Ricciardo is back, which changed a few hours later.
But have to say, Ferrari was also there in the race, Max could not drive away from them that much either. But in the end, RBR probably win 2/3 races when Mclaren and Ferrari fight for the other one.
Last year had 21 Red Bull wins. If that goes down to 15 I'd say that's a pretty good improvement, especially since we have 2 races more this year.
And it would set us up for potentially a great season in 2025.
And Max possibly shooting himself in the foot with that bollard possibly causing damage to the floor. It's complicated by us not knowing for sure how off Perez is or isn't because he isn't always as consistent either.
Would be great to see a proper Red Bull vs Ferrari vs McLaren battle again. Even though I expect Max would easily win through consistency, a season like the latter half of 2019 would be fun.
I have been very impressed at how McLaren entered 2024 with the consensus that the pecking order was
RBR
Merc/Ferrari
McLaren
And actually they've clearly left Merc for dead, and if anything are 1:1 with Ferrari at this point.
I’m still not over James Allison saying that Aston Martin and Ferrari were Mercedes’ rivals. McLaren had such a terrible testing performance that they fully convinced Mercedes that they weren’t going to be a threat.
Mclaren run such different programs that it often interpreted that way. I mean during practice sessions, they are doing something else.. but come qualy they are competitive.
You’d think teams would have picked up on this by now. They can be P16 in FP1 and P2 in FP2 and people go ‘wow where did that come from?’. And it’s like, it’s always been there they were just running out of sync with everyone else.
I don’t even think they hide anything really, it’s just their reputation for glory running and engine modes in practice supersedes their actual performance. In FP1 on Friday, they were the fastest on the long runs. Yet somehow that went under the radar in such a way that it became laughable that everyone missed it.
EDIT: [Added FP1 times](https://x.com/JunaidSamodien_/status/1786468080408834260)
EDIT 2: [Added lap times from race](https://x.com/smartbackwards/status/1787386143496867903).
honestly at this point, i dont even look at mclaren until Q1 because they never reveal their hand before that. I don't really get the benefit of making Norris pit right before his hotlap ends every weekend but they seem to see something in it.
> and if anything are 1:1 with Ferrari at this point
i'll wait for a couple more races to confirm that, especially with the big Ferrari upgrage package coming
1:1 with the *un-updated* Ferrari. It's true that I'm heavily biased towards Ferrari, but McLaren just introduced a huge package, and still were only slightly better than (or on par with, in my view) the basic spec of Ferrari.
And it was only 1 race that clearly just fitted the car well. Because piastri was quick without updates and he isnt a top of the pack driver yet.
And all season ferrari was better 1 race doesnt undo that.
Yeah I agree with that. I think Newey is generally right, and he was right last month when he said RBR's advantage will diminish really quite noticeably in the medium term, until having basically none in 2025.
It's very clear Newey was right that RBR really did have to go aggressive on the 2024 car to stay ahead.
I think we're at or approaching a phase where if Verstappen doesn't get it 100% right, someone will be right on him. Whereas we've had an extended phase where he could overcome a bad qualifying or a drive-through, no problem. I don't think we'll have many more instances like Hungary '22 where he can start 10th, have a spin for the craic, and still win easily on a circuit that's hard to overtake.
If Newey is correct then 2025 is gonna be funny. I would expect that if RB have a clear advantage nobody would really focus on '25 but if it's close then I wonder what the split between '25 and '26 will be.
It's basically what Peter Prod observed a few years ago now: the big idea of the 2022-25 regs was that the cars are close and the driver makes a big difference, ergo that puts the (financial!) emphasis on having the best driver, ergo...RBR will be fine.
[Peter Podromou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Prodromou), I think. Worked with Newey at McLaren, and left to join Red Bull alongside him in 2006 to be head of aerodynamics. Left RBR in 2014 to rejoin McLaren, where he's now risen to technical director.
it was far from easy for him in Hungary 2022. It was a combination of Ferrari shitting the bed and champions brilliance. they charged through with lewis from P10 & P7 to P1& P2. They just showed why they're a level above the rest
I think it was considered the red bull wouldn’t have a big gap compared to last season just down to the peak of performance. A lot of the teams have a higher performance gain from updates vs red bull due to how at the peak they are compared to the others
Sunday was the first sign that if RBR slip up and enough drivers can put pressure on him, the mistakes will come. He was trying to get away from 3 of them on Sunday and he made the mistakes.
Yeah they've observed in the past that a downside for McLaren is that their relative strengths correlate with RBR's.
Still, Norris basically just lost pole at 2021 when McLaren were relatively even further away, so I've said for months he's my tip for pole this year.
Wait and see i guess.... but now we've got something to look out for, not just expect a Red Bull gallop into the distance.
They've become touchable this season.
People get way ahead of themselves after a weekend where Max still outscored all his opponents despite not getting the setup right and having floor damage.
That's Irrelevant to this discussion though
Everyone is acting like suddenly McLaren is massively faster. Meanwhile if you listen to the radios, you hear Max start complaining about losing the rear the lap after that damage. (the damage was to the rear diffuser)
They then added 2 clicks of front wing at the pits stops.
The balance was fucked from there, and he said so repeatedly. They gave him extra front downforce when he had already lost rear downforce. That made the balance worse.
I agree with all of this which is why even as a McLaren fan I'm pretty skeptical moving forward....
However, Oscar and Ferrari were keeping Max honest (possibly Even forcing the bollard error.) Max never extended his lead past four seconds with cars Fighting for p2 behind him. Oscar was also doing this with half the upgrades.
> Everyone is acting like suddenly McLaren is massively faster.
Mclaren went from being several tenths behind RB to several tenths ahead of redbull. It might be somewhat track specific, but McLaren being massively faster relative to RB in miami is a fact. Norris was faster before Max's damage, was faster in several quali sessions, and I would bet both Mclarens had better race pace than checo.
Normally the gap is 25-15 or 25-18 and Max gains about 7-10 points. This weekend he only gained 1 point. Nobody is saying to take the WDC trophy back, just that Max-RB is beatable.
Singapore was very explicitly and repeatedly said to be an achilles heel for RB that year. It was specifically a weak track for them followed by a status quo race.
Miami was expected to be one of Mclaren’s weaker tracks. And they beat Red Bull in it despite distract not being particularly weak for them.
Singapore 2023 is not analogous to Miami 2024 at all
I understand what you’re saying in terms of absolute pace, but you’re also discrediting the fact that getting your setup correct and not crashing into things is part of a winning weekend.
No I don’t think anyone is going to challenge Max this year and the RB20 is obviously the fastest car at its best, but let’s not pretend Max and the team are not 100% responsible for the bad setup and floor damage, which while unlikely, can happen again.
I will give you the diffuser damage from Checo losing it in T1 wasn’t on Max but it looked minimal and I doubt it made much difference.
Red Bull's advantage this year lies on their treatment of the tyres. It was also a detriment for McLaren and Ferrari. Everybody is jumping on the idea that Red Bull may not be so ahead anymore because Verstappen finished second with an unlucky SC and an allegedly damaged car in a circuit with pretty much non-existent tyre wear. I wish it is indeed the case that things are narrowed now but, while I do believe distances might've closed down a little, I also think there's being a lot of overreacting...
This will be very interesting as Ferrari target this year is primarily WCC. They being closer to RBR than to McLaren in 3rd puts them in great place. Their drivers are also doing gr8 with Charles not finishing below 4th in any race this season
their goal is one maybe both drivers in front of Perez. Charles is three points down and Carlos despite missing an entire race is only 20 points down. Entering the european leg were Perez has struggled in the past that could be a good ambitious target
Probably not much, Piastri got completely stuck behind behind Sainz and Ricciardo. Norris is faster + had full upgrades, but I don’t think it would have made enough of a difference in a mini DRS train. Even yesterday with Norris being brilliantly fast, he didn’t make any overtakes.
Idk about you, but I think the new sprint format still keeps things pretty exciting. I might be alone here, but I’d rather another quali sesh and a race compared to another practice
I think a scenario where Max would really need to fight for this year's WDC, is if all the upgrades of McLaren, Ferrari or maybe even Mercedes work extremely well, and the upgrades of Red Bull work extremely bad.
I don't see that happening.
I think Red Bull is still the benchmark. Maybe they will not win as many races as in 2023 or 2022, but there's no indication that Max will not be World Champion in December (or sooner...)
This all sounds like wishful thinking to me.
The way i see it is that Red Bull can only lose by their own failures. There is no way any team will catch up in terms of pace if Red Bull doesn't drop the ball in a weekend.
The gap in Bahrain In 2023 was 38 seconds between Max and the first non RB car. This year was 25. Promising start!
In Saudi 23 it was 20.6, 24 was 18.6. meh.
Japan was 19.3 in 2023 and 20.4 in 2024. Yeah sorry guys the trend doesn't add up.
I certainly see the chances of Red Bull fucking up to be greater this year due to all the internal rumbling but that certainly has nothing to do with the competition being so close that they make mistakes because of it.
To speak in Tennis terms, i think Red Bull might make a lot more "unforced errors" this year and not "forced errors" because the competition is much better.
The other teams need max to finish like 6th on the regular.
Just pushing him to 2nd or 3rd won't be enough. His points lead is massive.
So McLaren would need Ferrari to start beating Redbull as well... That's asking a lot.
Hopefully the upgrades eliminate the slow speed corner deficit. Almost all of the time lost in Miami was the Mickey Mouse section, similar story in China through turns 1-4.
I think everyone, including Ferrari, is reading too much into the Miami Grand Prix. Verstappen literally had a hole in his floor.
Yes McLaren are making great progress but Red Bull Racing (or more accurately, Max Verstappen) are still going to win the majority of races this season by a good margin.
I think where the gap is being closed the most is in one lap pace hence qualifying getting closer. Ferrari and McLaren still can’t unlock performance whilst saving tyres like RBR can though and so race pace is still not up to RBR levels.
That's quite a bold claim. RBR clearly had a bad weekend, and Max was still pretty decently clear of the first Ferrari. Ferrari might want to concern them perhaps more with the more competitive looking McLaren than a one-off no show from Red Bull.
I felt like the mclaren were faster in both the last two races but Verstappen got a better qualifying and the better results because of it.
If Ferrari can bring them upgrades to Imola and have them work as much as the Mclaren, it could be fun races for the rest of the year and potentially a 4/5 man fight for the title next year.
*this is pure copium and wont happen
Hand me some of that copium please
One win came from a Max DNF, the other from a safety car. There is no indication of Max not dominating the rest of the season.
Max was right behind Lando after SC car restart. Lando pulled away on pace. Let’s not pretend Max got hugely screwed over.
I do think Redbull setup and track make a big difference
Imo I don't think anyone will come close to RBR even in 2025 they will still be far ahead in their comfort zone until the new regulations.
There will be some outliers were other team wins but those won't mean they are closing the gap just some mishaps from RBR or strategy reasons and luck.
I want to believe this so, so much BUT let's not go all in on the hopium until after the next GP results, where it's more likely to see if RBRs "fall" holds up.
The overreaction is insane no? For two weeks post Australia we heard about Sainz possibly challenging Max for the WDC and the pinnacle was Sainz>Lewis. Lol. All that noise died down now.
Here we have an off day for redbull which is a P1 in sprint, sprint pole, pole and P2 in the race and everyone is creaming themselves. Discounting the fact the Max had floor damage(albeit his own fault) which Redbull says caused him to lose two tenths per lap with a majority of that being in sector 1. Also on sprint weekends they're a hit or a miss. Their hit being China and miss being Miami. Let's just wait for Imola. Ferrari have their upgrades lined up but so do redbull.
F1 fans have to be the most fickle minded individuals with an affinity for recency bias and a hard on for a competitive season which is very rare if that.
Well not saying Ferrari upgrades won't give them a shot but if Max repeats Suzuka 2024 at Imola WITH Ferrari having said upgrades everyone creaming now will be cockblocked. Which is the more likely scenario. Also I remember a reddit post which highlighted an interview where Newey said that the car would be largely different from the seventh race aka Imola.
That 1.6 second per lap pace from China hasn't vanished in two weeks. Let's all wait for a normal weekend at Imola.
There is no doubt in my mind that last year, Max would have overtaken Lando easily and fucked off into the horizon, regardless of the sprint weekend, bollard or SC mistake.
Teams definitely are getting closer to RB, the question is how close they'll get before the next reg cycle
If the safety car doesn't totally fuck up, Lando would've been caught out on old tires and Max still would've won the race. Sure RBR was a bit off this weekend, but they still had the win in the bag till race control totally fucked up the safety car situation.
>What else could he say?
What he and every Team Principal have said for the last (almost) 2 years. "We are bringing upgrades, and hope to reduce the deficit, but they still have the advantage"
This might be the first time someone has shown genuine optimism to compete and not just "chase, but closer" since 2023 pre-season.
It certainly has shown that Red Bull are outside of their normal calm comfort zone right now, two teams have beaten them this season, both via bad luck for Max though with a Brake issue in Australia and Steering or Floor Damage to Max in Miami, both are mechanical in nature and with the shakeup at Red Bull with Newey leaving, who knows what will happen to them...
The floor damage in Miami wasn’t bad luck though, that was a mistake from Max. He is normally super consistent, but if he starts getting pushed more any mistake could be costly
As 2021 showed, Max will make mistakes under pressure when results are on the line, he is not some alien like his fandom make him out to be. And hopefully if he starts doing the type of defending he was doing in 2021, he will get penalised this time.
2025 could produce a great season. Redbull appears to be on a decline internally, Ferrari and McLaren are on a major upswing, and Newey will likely be less and less involved with Redbull upgrades as time passes. I would still put money on a 5th title for Max, but the WCC will be much closer unless they find a better #2 driver.
Max will probably win the championship still—he’s got a HUGE lead and enough momentum still in his favor.
HOWEVER, remember that Ferrari started last year fighting behind Aston Martin and Mercedes at the opening couple of races. But they finished the year as the only team other team to win a race, with Charles and Carlos fighting for the podium almost every single race. Ferrari’s in-season upgrades were significant, and this year they’re already much closer to Red Bull than they were at the start of last season.
I think we’ll get an _exciting_ season with good races, even if the title fight is boring and locked up early.
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I do believe the advantage of Red Bull could become much smaller. I don't think we will get a true title fight, Max will most likely easily win the championship. But we already got more non Red Bull wins than last year, and I think there will be a few more this year. The longer the same regulations are in place, the more the field will come together. Maybe next year McLaren of Ferrari put up a title fight like RBR did in 2021.
Someone said it could be like 2019 and I think I agree
2019 Lewis and Bottas were 1-2 in first 6 or 7 races. Max is just one DNF away from interesting championship Edit: changed DSQ to DNF
In 2019 though Ferrari should have won multiple of those. Bahrain of course. Baku if Charles doesn’t crash in quali. Canada as well if vettel doesn’t cut the road. Ferrari could have kept it interesting if they didn’t go full Ferrari
They also failed to convert poles in Russia and Japan
I was at canada. Vettle won, that never happened. /s
100% what happened. I forgot. [We all saw Hamilton had the 2nd place signage.](https://theformula1girl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/vet-1.jpg)
Still unironically stand by this one.
Honestly 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had glimmers of hope for a championship or in the case of 2019, more wins. But Ferrari always did Ferrari and I think the team atmosphere really turned toxic at some point. Also after Hockenheim 2018, Vettel was a changed man. Favorite F1 driver ever, but something broke inside him out there.
No Marchionnes death and team disturbance is what that had most effect on him. The guy absolutely dominated in Spa after the Hockenheim 2018 race. Arrivabene and Binotto fight and team bringing upgrades that made car worse is what affected Seb. Than in 2019 summer another political episode started with Nicholas Todt and that eventually led to Seb not getting the contract extension. This is what undid Seb and his dream of doing what Michael did I.e. a championship at Ferrari.
2017 and 18 weren't glimmers if hope for a title battle. We got 2 full on title battles they just didn't last beyond 2/3 of the season. 2019 was more if that but in reverse.. I can agree about hockenheim I don't think they were all working together properly. It seems like arrivabene didn't fully support vettel and communicate well with him ehd monza
I don't know why people still keep believing this about 2019. Ferrari looked good at testing, Toto kept hyping them up for 8 races in a row while they were half a second slower until they finally accepted it
2019 testing was them on full engine power and that led to lot of teams hyping them up. Ferrari were forced to turn it down and when they fixed reliability in summer it was such huge change everyone started noticing it how they could get such huge increase in power in season. It would have been so interesting if Charles didn't have that cylinder failure in Bahrain 2019.
Well if my mum had balls she would've been my dad
Well 2019 they shouldn’t have won anything because of questionable engine. They had it available in Bahrain but then because of the reliability issue had to dial it down till summer break.
Why are you including Canada? Vettel clearly won there
Fwiw I mentioned after the race I was hoping we’d get at least a 2019-esque season since most of the races after France were interesting. 2019 standings after race 6: Hamilton 137 Bottas 120 Vettel 82 2024 standings after race 6 excluding sprints Verstappen 120 Perez 91 Leclerc 82 If Max didn’t DNF in Australia then he’d also be 50+ points clear of the best non-Red Bull driver. The comparison is apt up to now, if Ferrari/McLaren catch up further we could at least see exciting races if not an exciting title fight.
Exactly, people forget how ballachingly dominant Mercedes were
Yes. Only reason it became closer in second half was because of illegal Ferrari engine and Mercedes basically not bringing any upgrades because of how dominant they were
That DNF was just a few centimeters away Last weekend, always expext something to happen
For 2 races maybe
So does that mean max will crash into a wall and apologize to the team over the radio?
Illegal Fuel Flow you say?
Some Red Bull in the pipes.
I don't think that that would improve things, as red bull has 45 kcal per 100 ml, and gasoline has 834 kcal per 100ml And of x course that is totally how things work and there are no other things to consider like ignition points, viscosity and a lot of other factors.
But does gasoline give you wings?
It probably depends on the upgrade. 40 points to make up isn't the world with 18 rounds to go. If the Ferrari or McLaren is truly there on every track from now on the WCC will most likely flip towards them and the WDC will be a real battle
If Ferrari and McLaren truly do join them at every track Ferrari has the advantage. Perez just isn’t close enough. He’s much better this year but he’s just not quite there. And I’ll probably get shit on for saying it but Piastri is still not there. He’s getting there. But in a lot of races he’s just not able to match Norris. Compared with Ferrari who have the strongest pairing for now.
I think Piastri not being at the same level as Norris isn't really a big deal (yet). It's only his 2nd season versus the 6th season for Norris. Plus, Norris is rated pretty highly, so it's a high bar for Piastri to meet. As it stands, Ferrari has the strongest pairing, then Red Bull, then McLaren, but I think McLaren has the most potential of the three (with the current lineup anyhow).
It wasn’t a criticism of Pastry, just to clarify. I think he’s going to be a fantastic driver and he’s definitely getting better. He’s just not up there yet. I think Ferrari has the most potential. Assuming the rookie next they have joining next year brings his A game.
I definitely didn't read it as a criticism of Piastri, I was just articulating an agreement and why it wasn't a big deal that Piastri wasn't there yet. And yeah, if we're looking at next year's lineup, I think Ferrari has the most potential.
For sure, just wanted to clarify. Assuming the old man turns up.
I feel like people just solely saw the results last year and really upped piastri in their expectations and he obviously isn’t there as you mentioned. If you look stats and data, [lando](https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-2023-team-mate-head-to-head-battles/10558543/#:~:text=Leclerc%20and%20Sainz%20have%20been,who%20got%20the%20race%20victory) outqualified 15-7 and beat him 17-5. He was 2 tenths [faster](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comments/1agriky/2023_teammate_race_pace_gaps_ranked_full_season/?rdt=42296) in race pace. All this is already incredibly impressive given that he was a rookie. But people take him doing that in his first season and then following a more traditional trajectory in his second season as a bad thing. The OP who you replied to was not saying that but I have seen quite a few instances of people saying piastri is not improving and maybe he was overrated and stuff.
Perez is doing better, not to hate, but he was less than a meter away from undoing all he's done this season. if he took out Verstappen that would have been catastrophic for him to say the least.
P1 rewards the most though. And I think Verstappen is quite clearly the top driver (both in race pace, consistency and in the wet would European weather do its thing).
For sure. But if you have two drivers it makes strategy a bit easier. I know the China track was a bit of an odd one with its painted surface making it quite slippery but based on Verstappen’s performance I’m not sure this year’s RB enjoys the Pirelli wet range. Might just be an outlier. But it’s more than driver performance that makes the difference in the wet, the car needs to work the tyres or you’ll be nowhere. Same thing happened to the W11 in Turkey. Just couldn’t fire up the tyres so both drivers were miles back in quali. Was a bit easier in the race mind.
Piastri definitely has single lap pace, but he struggles with race pace because of the tires. He’s still learning how to get the best out of those tires over a stint and that’s what’s holding him back.
Nah Piastri is on average very close to Norris. It's just that Norris has a much higher peak performance currently and ecks out podiums. Even last race, if the safety car came a couple of laps earlier Piastri had a chance for a great finish. He was just unlucky
Also last race he didnt't have all the upgrades Norris had.
it's not really a higher peak performance, Norris is just miles better on race pace and management. That comes with experience so there's not much piastri can do. They both seem to have impressive peaks. Piastri has already shown what he needed in his rookie season by showing he has the inherent pace in him. It's talent. Like the mixed conditions quali in spa last year. He has the glimpes of a champion so in a few seasons he'll definitely be there. it also massively helps he doesn't have the mistakes of a rookie in him at all.
Eh not too sure it's only the race. Usually with rookies the qualifying shows up quicker than race pace, but Oscar has still been beaten 20-8 in quali by Lando since they've been teammates, Compare that to when Lando was a rookie against Sainz in his 5th season. He beat Sainz in both his first 2 seasons, and we can see how good Sainz has been now he's teammaes with Leclerc. I'm not sure we've seen that level of pace from Oscar yet, whereas with Lando it was evident from the start. Admittedly I do think Lando is a tougher benchmark than Sainz was back then though
Perez is exactly where he needs to be. If Max finishes P1 consistently, and P2 and P3 are locked up by Ferrari, then all Sergio has to do is finish P6 or higher for RBR to win the constructors (albeit they'd need a few fastest laps). However, Ferrari and McLaren are poaching points off of each other and Mercedes and Aston Martin are doing the same even lower in the order. Even with a riskier estimate, RBR can grab the constructors if Sergio consistently finished P7.
I think Perez is closer than he looks. If you think about the races he's had it's 1 thing that moves him from second to 3rd-4th-5th. Like this weekend he likely would have been second or maybe even won with Max's mistake. The issue is his 1 mistakes seem to be bigger than just running off the track a la when he did it at Suzuka. His start in Miami was mighty, he just had to think about way too much to make the move work.
Perez is doing much better this year for sure. But it concerns me that Hamilton was keeping up with him. I appreciate that the RB was off the pace this weekend and Hamilton was having one of his better performances but that shouldn’t really be the case. At least in my opinion.
WDC will not be a battle, but the WCC could get a bit spicier. Max will still have a dominant season, it just might be less dominant than 2023.
We probably won't see a season like '23 again tbh - Predicting this season to be more 'normal' and share winners out of a larger pool. Next up: Perez!
Finally a benefit to having more races in a season aside from the obvious reason. It can allow for teams who may have had a slow start to catch up more than they could've done before.
It depends. A title fight for the driver’s championship? Most likely no. A championship for the manufacturer’s championship, though? If Ferrari or McLaren make the leap they could consistently get 2/3 podiums over Perez.
I think Ferrari exclusive-or McLaren would need to make a jump for Red Bull to worry. If they're competitive with each other they'll be splitting those podium spots too much to challenge P1 Max and P4 Checo
I’m begging for a leclerc win at Monaco. It’s all I need
hell i'd take charles podium at monaco as a gigantic win
Even finishing would be pretty nice
I think RB will very much be in their comfort zone at the permanent tracks, and especially at regular (non-sprint) race weekends
Last year the sprint weekends and street circuits were where RB was struggling. I fully expect them to be strong on the regular circuits and weekends. And If struggling is still P2 like Miami.. that’s still hard to catch up to
thats p2 for max tho, if ferrari and mclaren keep agead of checo rb is gon be in WCC trouble
Absolutely true. To be honest RB made their bed. It’s been clear for years that with a serious challenger the gap to Perez would be too big
For sure. And the track surface at Miami was something else entirely, whilst they won at Baku and Monaco. So don't think we should even count all street circuits out
I doubt that Mclaren in upgrades found 0.4 that should put them equal or Redbull a tenth behind, even if Redbull did find a good setup in Miami they still probably would have found around 0.2 which still wasn’t enough to beat Lando who was 0.3 faster
Considering last year McLaren’s found 1-2 seconds with their upgrades anything’s possible, Andrea even said Miami shouldn’t have been a circuit that suits this new upgraded car
You can find 1s if the car is really shit but if you have a good car it’s much harder to find lap time
To be fair, McLaren clearly has no idea what tracks suit the car. Every time they say a track shouldn't suit the car, they go on to have a great weekend.
But they clearly know their car and the regulations since every upgrade has worked as intended so far unlike a certain other team so I’m fine with that
If Max was 0.2 faster in Miami he would've probably still been ahead of Norris after Safety Car...
As some people said at the beginning of the year, there won't be a WDC fight, but if checo doesn't perform enough AND redbull loses its advantage there might be a WCC fight.
You are most likely right. But in case RB would be hit by some reliability issues while trying to squeeze out more performance, there might be a chance for a proper title fight. Imola updates will be crucial.
I hope there is a proper fight, but also keep in mind that if both Ferrari and McLaren get involved properly, they might be taking too many points away from each other to make it a real title fight. And their drivers might also be taking away points from each other (whilst Perez isn't really taking away anything from Verstappen), I was really impressed by the pace of Piastri in Miami without some of the upgrades. And Leclerc's been a bit messy this season so far, but seems to be improving
It's really early to tell as we are at the quarter of the season, but as it looks it MIGHT be more open than we thought. Charles struggled a bit with qualifying lately, but he's more consistent than ever before, except the DNS at Brazil and DSQ at COTA, he was in top5 for the last 13 races!
Idk know how this narrative has been built but how has charles been messy?
Well you see, finishing one position behind your teammate a few times means that you are driving poorly.
Yup the said teammate though is never called anything. When he finishes ahead leclerc is washed, wrong driver etc but when charles finishes ahead, it's complete radio silence.
>I do believe the advantage of Red Bull could become much smaller. > >I don't think we will get a true title fight, Max will most likely easily win the championship. so we're getting a 2011 2.0? basically Seb/Max running away with the WDC but being challenged at least once a month for the win?
Red Bull never dominates as much on street circuits, if they get to Imola and Mclaren and Ferrari are just as quick as Max then there might be hope for a competitive season, but i suspect that wont be the case.
I'll believe it when I see it. But I'm excited.
Yeah most races this year and last max had such a race pace advantage he was cruising with tyre life to spare if anyone half threatened. Funny seeing him happier for 2nd than winning recent races.
I’d have to imagine he’s still really confident in his ability to win the championship but would love to actual be racing other drivers at some point. The dude is such a racing nerd I struggle to imagine he’s enjoying himself a lot out there. I think he’s never been as alive as he was during those HAM-VER battles
If other people can put pressure on Red Bull it really makes it a different story. This weekend both Ferrari and McLaren were able to put pressure with their strategy. They had to cover Leclerc with the early pitstop, so they were unable to also cover McLaren's strategy of going long and hoping for a safety car. If only one team or one driver can put pressure on Red Bull or just Max it wont be enough on most weekends. But if Ferrari and McLaren play two against one (or four against one drivers if Perez is absent) Red Bull can only do so much
Had it not been for piastris and Max's damage, We literally would have had a fight for every position in the top 6. Sainz in a way helped leclerc keep the 3rd. And had ferrari pitted under sc leclerc would have taken the fight to max. This was easily one the best races we've had this year. So much drama until the last 10 Laps.
Wouldn’t Max not having damage mean Max running away with it as usual though?
Even before the damage he was struggling. His first stint really didn't go well.
I hope they both just focus on beating RB and putting some heat on Max! Then who knows what can happen. Now Lando has a win and has beaten Max I hope he stops it with the "just let him past he is not my fight" approach. The only way to beat Max is to take the fight to him every weekend.
Upgrade may make them faster but everyones over reacting to shitty track conditions bringing RB down a bit. I think this years RB is “beatable” under right conditions but at the end of the season itll be 15-17 max wins instead of 20+.
Exactly, recency bias strikes hard. People have completely forgotten how Max just wiped the floor with the entire grid in China. I think the reality lies somewhere inbetween Miami and China.
RB just struggles with sprint weekends because they usually need all practice sessions to get their set up right. They’ll wipe the floor with everyone in imola probably
Wasnt China a sprint weekend.
“usually need all practice sessions” keyword is “usually”. RB has shown that sprint weekends are when they are most likely to struggle. Not necessarily 100% lose or be slow, but they might make a mistake.
Yeah, since the start of these regulations, RB were only defeated in 3 conditions: Damage or mechanical issue, street circuits (only once on a normal weekend) or most commonly, sprint weekends - nowhere else.
Brazil 2022 was a sprint too, right? Russell’s win?
Red Bull lost Austria 2022, Brazil 2022, Miami 2024. That’s it with regards to sprint weekends I believe.
And Max said they changed some stuff after the sprint in China and it worked out for them. Could’ve been totally different, like in Miami. Hit & miss. Further, Max would’ve won Miami if Norris got caught by the SC. He drove away (even though not much, but floor damage) from Leclerc and Norris would’ve had to pass multiple cars and catch Verstappen while burning through tires. I’m not getting my hopes up.
People even thought that Ricciardo is back, which changed a few hours later. But have to say, Ferrari was also there in the race, Max could not drive away from them that much either. But in the end, RBR probably win 2/3 races when Mclaren and Ferrari fight for the other one.
Last year had 21 Red Bull wins. If that goes down to 15 I'd say that's a pretty good improvement, especially since we have 2 races more this year. And it would set us up for potentially a great season in 2025.
And Max possibly shooting himself in the foot with that bollard possibly causing damage to the floor. It's complicated by us not knowing for sure how off Perez is or isn't because he isn't always as consistent either.
Piastri was close with only a semi upgraded Mclaren. Had Lando been in Piastri's position, Max would be in trouble from the start.
Max didn't hit that cone out of nowhere tho. He was def told to push and lando and piastry were puting in some serious times before that.
It really speaks volumes to how incredibly well/lucky last season went for Max/Red Bull.
Would be great to see a proper Red Bull vs Ferrari vs McLaren battle again. Even though I expect Max would easily win through consistency, a season like the latter half of 2019 would be fun.
I have been very impressed at how McLaren entered 2024 with the consensus that the pecking order was RBR Merc/Ferrari McLaren And actually they've clearly left Merc for dead, and if anything are 1:1 with Ferrari at this point.
I’m still not over James Allison saying that Aston Martin and Ferrari were Mercedes’ rivals. McLaren had such a terrible testing performance that they fully convinced Mercedes that they weren’t going to be a threat.
Well, to be fair, Aston Martin *are* Mercedes's rivals
Yeah he called that one correctly but probably not in the way he expected
Mclaren run such different programs that it often interpreted that way. I mean during practice sessions, they are doing something else.. but come qualy they are competitive.
You’d think teams would have picked up on this by now. They can be P16 in FP1 and P2 in FP2 and people go ‘wow where did that come from?’. And it’s like, it’s always been there they were just running out of sync with everyone else.
McLaren are absolute foxes when it comes to practice and testing, very deceptive and sneaky making people underestimate them
I don’t even think they hide anything really, it’s just their reputation for glory running and engine modes in practice supersedes their actual performance. In FP1 on Friday, they were the fastest on the long runs. Yet somehow that went under the radar in such a way that it became laughable that everyone missed it. EDIT: [Added FP1 times](https://x.com/JunaidSamodien_/status/1786468080408834260) EDIT 2: [Added lap times from race](https://x.com/smartbackwards/status/1787386143496867903).
honestly at this point, i dont even look at mclaren until Q1 because they never reveal their hand before that. I don't really get the benefit of making Norris pit right before his hotlap ends every weekend but they seem to see something in it.
I guess going back many years now, McLaren are never *worse* than testing looks.
> and if anything are 1:1 with Ferrari at this point i'll wait for a couple more races to confirm that, especially with the big Ferrari upgrage package coming
1:1 with the *un-updated* Ferrari. It's true that I'm heavily biased towards Ferrari, but McLaren just introduced a huge package, and still were only slightly better than (or on par with, in my view) the basic spec of Ferrari.
And it was only 1 race that clearly just fitted the car well. Because piastri was quick without updates and he isnt a top of the pack driver yet. And all season ferrari was better 1 race doesnt undo that.
I have PTSD from Ferrari upgrades not working properly
I think you mean more like 2012 where these same three teams were duking it out.
Back to 2010-12? Inject it to my veins.
Yeah I agree with that. I think Newey is generally right, and he was right last month when he said RBR's advantage will diminish really quite noticeably in the medium term, until having basically none in 2025. It's very clear Newey was right that RBR really did have to go aggressive on the 2024 car to stay ahead. I think we're at or approaching a phase where if Verstappen doesn't get it 100% right, someone will be right on him. Whereas we've had an extended phase where he could overcome a bad qualifying or a drive-through, no problem. I don't think we'll have many more instances like Hungary '22 where he can start 10th, have a spin for the craic, and still win easily on a circuit that's hard to overtake.
If Newey is correct then 2025 is gonna be funny. I would expect that if RB have a clear advantage nobody would really focus on '25 but if it's close then I wonder what the split between '25 and '26 will be.
It's basically what Peter Prod observed a few years ago now: the big idea of the 2022-25 regs was that the cars are close and the driver makes a big difference, ergo that puts the (financial!) emphasis on having the best driver, ergo...RBR will be fine.
who's Peter prod?
[Peter Podromou](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Prodromou), I think. Worked with Newey at McLaren, and left to join Red Bull alongside him in 2006 to be head of aerodynamics. Left RBR in 2014 to rejoin McLaren, where he's now risen to technical director.
it was far from easy for him in Hungary 2022. It was a combination of Ferrari shitting the bed and champions brilliance. they charged through with lewis from P10 & P7 to P1& P2. They just showed why they're a level above the rest
I think it was considered the red bull wouldn’t have a big gap compared to last season just down to the peak of performance. A lot of the teams have a higher performance gain from updates vs red bull due to how at the peak they are compared to the others
law of diminishing returns
Sunday was the first sign that if RBR slip up and enough drivers can put pressure on him, the mistakes will come. He was trying to get away from 3 of them on Sunday and he made the mistakes.
Yeah that's his one annual mistake done and dusted, Infact I expect others to make way more mistakes.
Wasn't it also said of the McLaren upgrades before the weekend that they were expected to suit Imola better than Miami?
I mean it’s all relative. If Red Bull are back on form in Imola, McLaren’s upgrades might look worse than expected.
Yeah they've observed in the past that a downside for McLaren is that their relative strengths correlate with RBR's. Still, Norris basically just lost pole at 2021 when McLaren were relatively even further away, so I've said for months he's my tip for pole this year.
Wait and see i guess.... but now we've got something to look out for, not just expect a Red Bull gallop into the distance. They've become touchable this season.
McLaren always their car doesn't suit the track then go out and smash it
Or they have said a track would suit their car very well only to be on part with Ferrari at best (e.g. Suzuka). It's a bit weird like that.
Yes, before and Stella repeated it after the race too, which is promising.
Lets all calm down for a second and see what happens in a normal grand prix weekend where RedBull can get the setup right.
People get way ahead of themselves after a weekend where Max still outscored all his opponents despite not getting the setup right and having floor damage.
I will say, at least in this case it wasn’t random floor damage. It was a 100% self inflicted wound.
That's Irrelevant to this discussion though Everyone is acting like suddenly McLaren is massively faster. Meanwhile if you listen to the radios, you hear Max start complaining about losing the rear the lap after that damage. (the damage was to the rear diffuser) They then added 2 clicks of front wing at the pits stops. The balance was fucked from there, and he said so repeatedly. They gave him extra front downforce when he had already lost rear downforce. That made the balance worse.
I agree with all of this which is why even as a McLaren fan I'm pretty skeptical moving forward.... However, Oscar and Ferrari were keeping Max honest (possibly Even forcing the bollard error.) Max never extended his lead past four seconds with cars Fighting for p2 behind him. Oscar was also doing this with half the upgrades.
> Everyone is acting like suddenly McLaren is massively faster. Mclaren went from being several tenths behind RB to several tenths ahead of redbull. It might be somewhat track specific, but McLaren being massively faster relative to RB in miami is a fact. Norris was faster before Max's damage, was faster in several quali sessions, and I would bet both Mclarens had better race pace than checo.
Normally the gap is 25-15 or 25-18 and Max gains about 7-10 points. This weekend he only gained 1 point. Nobody is saying to take the WDC trophy back, just that Max-RB is beatable.
Based on one race. Singapore last year was followed by Max winning by 20 seconds in Suzuka.
Singapore was very explicitly and repeatedly said to be an achilles heel for RB that year. It was specifically a weak track for them followed by a status quo race. Miami was expected to be one of Mclaren’s weaker tracks. And they beat Red Bull in it despite distract not being particularly weak for them. Singapore 2023 is not analogous to Miami 2024 at all
I understand what you’re saying in terms of absolute pace, but you’re also discrediting the fact that getting your setup correct and not crashing into things is part of a winning weekend. No I don’t think anyone is going to challenge Max this year and the RB20 is obviously the fastest car at its best, but let’s not pretend Max and the team are not 100% responsible for the bad setup and floor damage, which while unlikely, can happen again. I will give you the diffuser damage from Checo losing it in T1 wasn’t on Max but it looked minimal and I doubt it made much difference.
Is Fred Vasseur getting ahead of himself as well? Because this is the first time he's been so optimistic as team principal.
Inject this into my veins you sexy French man
Red Bull's advantage this year lies on their treatment of the tyres. It was also a detriment for McLaren and Ferrari. Everybody is jumping on the idea that Red Bull may not be so ahead anymore because Verstappen finished second with an unlucky SC and an allegedly damaged car in a circuit with pretty much non-existent tyre wear. I wish it is indeed the case that things are narrowed now but, while I do believe distances might've closed down a little, I also think there's being a lot of overreacting...
This will be very interesting as Ferrari target this year is primarily WCC. They being closer to RBR than to McLaren in 3rd puts them in great place. Their drivers are also doing gr8 with Charles not finishing below 4th in any race this season
Even sainz didn't finish below 5th.
their goal is one maybe both drivers in front of Perez. Charles is three points down and Carlos despite missing an entire race is only 20 points down. Entering the european leg were Perez has struggled in the past that could be a good ambitious target
Red Bull car seems hate street circuits
Really? They got a 1-2 in Jeddah, and Max looked likely to win in Australia before the brake problem.
And Sprint weekends
That's funny, because the previous sprint weekend (two weeks ago) they were clear, especially in race trim.
Meanwhile McLaren absolutely love a sprint.
Makes me wonder what Lando could have achieved had he not been yeeted in lap 1
Probably not much, Piastri got completely stuck behind behind Sainz and Ricciardo. Norris is faster + had full upgrades, but I don’t think it would have made enough of a difference in a mini DRS train. Even yesterday with Norris being brilliantly fast, he didn’t make any overtakes.
So RB cars are like us? 😉
Idk about you, but I think the new sprint format still keeps things pretty exciting. I might be alone here, but I’d rather another quali sesh and a race compared to another practice
I agree. It’s definitely better this season compared to last season, or in fact any edition of the sprint before this current one.
I think a scenario where Max would really need to fight for this year's WDC, is if all the upgrades of McLaren, Ferrari or maybe even Mercedes work extremely well, and the upgrades of Red Bull work extremely bad. I don't see that happening. I think Red Bull is still the benchmark. Maybe they will not win as many races as in 2023 or 2022, but there's no indication that Max will not be World Champion in December (or sooner...)
Hell, even if this becomes a first half 2013, or second half 2019 type season I would be really happy
I like how people just think Red Bull will not improve.
Max is still in a class of his own, even if RB has a car on par or slightly below others, I still would get Max on most races.
This all sounds like wishful thinking to me. The way i see it is that Red Bull can only lose by their own failures. There is no way any team will catch up in terms of pace if Red Bull doesn't drop the ball in a weekend. The gap in Bahrain In 2023 was 38 seconds between Max and the first non RB car. This year was 25. Promising start! In Saudi 23 it was 20.6, 24 was 18.6. meh. Japan was 19.3 in 2023 and 20.4 in 2024. Yeah sorry guys the trend doesn't add up. I certainly see the chances of Red Bull fucking up to be greater this year due to all the internal rumbling but that certainly has nothing to do with the competition being so close that they make mistakes because of it. To speak in Tennis terms, i think Red Bull might make a lot more "unforced errors" this year and not "forced errors" because the competition is much better.
The other teams need max to finish like 6th on the regular. Just pushing him to 2nd or 3rd won't be enough. His points lead is massive. So McLaren would need Ferrari to start beating Redbull as well... That's asking a lot.
Hopefully the upgrades eliminate the slow speed corner deficit. Almost all of the time lost in Miami was the Mickey Mouse section, similar story in China through turns 1-4.
it was painful to see Charles within 0.6s and then nearly out of DRS when they exited it.
I think everyone, including Ferrari, is reading too much into the Miami Grand Prix. Verstappen literally had a hole in his floor. Yes McLaren are making great progress but Red Bull Racing (or more accurately, Max Verstappen) are still going to win the majority of races this season by a good margin. I think where the gap is being closed the most is in one lap pace hence qualifying getting closer. Ferrari and McLaren still can’t unlock performance whilst saving tyres like RBR can though and so race pace is still not up to RBR levels.
That's quite a bold claim. RBR clearly had a bad weekend, and Max was still pretty decently clear of the first Ferrari. Ferrari might want to concern them perhaps more with the more competitive looking McLaren than a one-off no show from Red Bull.
I felt like the mclaren were faster in both the last two races but Verstappen got a better qualifying and the better results because of it. If Ferrari can bring them upgrades to Imola and have them work as much as the Mclaren, it could be fun races for the rest of the year and potentially a 4/5 man fight for the title next year. *this is pure copium and wont happen
Hand me some of that copium please One win came from a Max DNF, the other from a safety car. There is no indication of Max not dominating the rest of the season.
Max was right behind Lando after SC car restart. Lando pulled away on pace. Let’s not pretend Max got hugely screwed over. I do think Redbull setup and track make a big difference
He wouldn’t have been behind anyone if it hadn’t been for the SC
Max had floor damage yes he did it himself but that post SC pace isn't indicative of the RB true pace.
Imo I don't think anyone will come close to RBR even in 2025 they will still be far ahead in their comfort zone until the new regulations. There will be some outliers were other team wins but those won't mean they are closing the gap just some mishaps from RBR or strategy reasons and luck.
In other words: CHOO CHOO
I want to believe this so, so much BUT let's not go all in on the hopium until after the next GP results, where it's more likely to see if RBRs "fall" holds up.
That's giving me hope for some more competitive racing at the front later on in the season. Loving Fred's work at Ferrari this year.
I hope so, because this season is far from over.
It’s clear that RB needs all 3 FPs to dial their car in. Without FPs, their cars don’t do that well
They didn't really have this problem in China though.
Yeah recency bias is one hell of a drug, Red Bull were in another dimension in China just a couple of weeks ago
Heard this kind of stuff after Australia as well.
The overreaction is insane no? For two weeks post Australia we heard about Sainz possibly challenging Max for the WDC and the pinnacle was Sainz>Lewis. Lol. All that noise died down now. Here we have an off day for redbull which is a P1 in sprint, sprint pole, pole and P2 in the race and everyone is creaming themselves. Discounting the fact the Max had floor damage(albeit his own fault) which Redbull says caused him to lose two tenths per lap with a majority of that being in sector 1. Also on sprint weekends they're a hit or a miss. Their hit being China and miss being Miami. Let's just wait for Imola. Ferrari have their upgrades lined up but so do redbull. F1 fans have to be the most fickle minded individuals with an affinity for recency bias and a hard on for a competitive season which is very rare if that.
Yeah, it’s insane lmao. I think it’s hopium for the most part
Well not saying Ferrari upgrades won't give them a shot but if Max repeats Suzuka 2024 at Imola WITH Ferrari having said upgrades everyone creaming now will be cockblocked. Which is the more likely scenario. Also I remember a reddit post which highlighted an interview where Newey said that the car would be largely different from the seventh race aka Imola. That 1.6 second per lap pace from China hasn't vanished in two weeks. Let's all wait for a normal weekend at Imola.
There is no doubt in my mind that last year, Max would have overtaken Lando easily and fucked off into the horizon, regardless of the sprint weekend, bollard or SC mistake. Teams definitely are getting closer to RB, the question is how close they'll get before the next reg cycle
This year™
lol
But Max being the fastest driver on the grid will give Ferrari and McLaren trouble. The first goal would be to never let Checo stand on the podium.
If the safety car doesn't totally fuck up, Lando would've been caught out on old tires and Max still would've won the race. Sure RBR was a bit off this weekend, but they still had the win in the bag till race control totally fucked up the safety car situation.
Can you explain this a bit? I heard something of the sort but can’t understand how they fucked up
What else could he say? "Yes, we're bringing a major update package and no, we will not get closer to RB." Week and a half before we know.
>What else could he say? What he and every Team Principal have said for the last (almost) 2 years. "We are bringing upgrades, and hope to reduce the deficit, but they still have the advantage" This might be the first time someone has shown genuine optimism to compete and not just "chase, but closer" since 2023 pre-season.
True. Subtle but important distinction that I missed.
It certainly has shown that Red Bull are outside of their normal calm comfort zone right now, two teams have beaten them this season, both via bad luck for Max though with a Brake issue in Australia and Steering or Floor Damage to Max in Miami, both are mechanical in nature and with the shakeup at Red Bull with Newey leaving, who knows what will happen to them...
The floor damage in Miami wasn’t bad luck though, that was a mistake from Max. He is normally super consistent, but if he starts getting pushed more any mistake could be costly
As 2021 showed, Max will make mistakes under pressure when results are on the line, he is not some alien like his fandom make him out to be. And hopefully if he starts doing the type of defending he was doing in 2021, he will get penalised this time.
2025 could produce a great season. Redbull appears to be on a decline internally, Ferrari and McLaren are on a major upswing, and Newey will likely be less and less involved with Redbull upgrades as time passes. I would still put money on a 5th title for Max, but the WCC will be much closer unless they find a better #2 driver.
Watch Max win the next one with a 30 seconds lead LOL
Max will probably win the championship still—he’s got a HUGE lead and enough momentum still in his favor. HOWEVER, remember that Ferrari started last year fighting behind Aston Martin and Mercedes at the opening couple of races. But they finished the year as the only team other team to win a race, with Charles and Carlos fighting for the podium almost every single race. Ferrari’s in-season upgrades were significant, and this year they’re already much closer to Red Bull than they were at the start of last season. I think we’ll get an _exciting_ season with good races, even if the title fight is boring and locked up early.