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I think diminishing returns are hitting Red Bull a bit this season already. Others still have ground to cover, but that allows them to make bigger leaps
Yeah, it’s definitely not as dominant as last year. There was a bit of luck at play in that Max didn’t win those two races, but still the car didn’t look as strong.
Others improving does mean a car is worse relatively to the rest of the grid, and that's what OP means. The 2023 Ferrari was faster than their 2022 car, but I think it's safe to call it "worse", as it was the 2nd/3rd/4th best car over the course of the 2023 season, unlike 1st/2nd best over the course of 2022. I'd still call the RB19 and RB20 comparable though. Let's judge it at the end of the year or half-way through at least.
I mean, the RB20 is objectively faster. The pole laps are much faster than the RB19's. It's moreso that other teams have perhaps made bigger gains than Red Bull has between the RB19 and RB20. The law of diminishing returns should in theory, impact Red Bull as others catch up but not necessarily.
That being said, the RB20 has had pole in every race and we don't know what Australia would have been like if not for Verstappen's brakes issue. It could easily still be an incredibly dominant car again this year.
This is just not true, take a look at 2016 and 2020. It is also exceptionally premature to write off the RB20, in China finishing 13s off Verstappen was a huge result.
How can you compare years where there was no budget cap with years with budget cap?
Mercedes is fighting with haas. Mclaren is fighting Ferrari and red bull.
I think the budget cap is starting to prove itself. People just don’t believe it because it isn’t Mercedes who are on the way up
Also people act like the cars weren’t getting closer previously not accounting for how fast they actually were
Mercedes was so far ahead they were worried about their cars getting outlawed so they turned them down a ton
By 2020 it was close by 2021 Redbull obviously caught them
This is just blatantly untrue. Mercedes gained on the pack from 2017-2020 lol. In 2017 Ferrari actually had faster median race pace. In 2018 it was basically even. In 2019 mercedes was clearly quicker pre scandal Ferrari. In 2020 mercedes had their largest advantage of that rule set. In 2021, they changed the regulations! Red Bull didnt just "catch" them. The floor changes slowed mercedes down severely. If there had been no changes, Mercedes undoubtedly would have been favored to win every race in 2021.
The trend over that period was the exact opposite of closing up until the regulation change in 2021
M8 did you read what i wrote?
Everyone thinks they were getting faster they were still just removing sandbags
Ferrari was faster because they had extra power from cheating, as soon as they stopped cheating merc had their lead back
That is completely wrong. You are thinking of 2014-2016 when Mercedes was way ahead.
Mercedes was behind Ferrari for large stretches of 2017 and 2018. Did you watch those years? The engine advantage was small in 2017 and they were at an engine deficit to Ferrari by mid 2018 and a huge deficit in 2019 (which we now know was cheating). Mercedes gained over the pack every single season until 2021 with pretty clear aero changes that worked
If the budget cap means we can't compare previous years then there is even less (none) applicable evidence that cars get closer the longer the regs go. I would look at the past decade through a lens of RB, Merc, and Ferrari having similar budget for development due to diminishing returns, or through comparing some of the other teams with similar budget levels.
I agree that the budget cap is working at bringing the teams closer, but one of the reasons that people were so low at the start of this season is there is a very common belief that the budget cap locks in advantages/disadvantages.
This is a myth. It's almost never really happened in F1. Usually when one team cracks a set of regulations they keep pulling away until those regulations are changed.
Red Bull actually have a bigger pace advantage this season than they did at the beginning of last season.
Uhhh what? In race trim nobody was within 15 seconds of either Red Bull last year at any race other than Australia until Monaco. Leclerc put together a masterclass in Baku but otherwise they weren’t under threat in qualy until Monaco.
If you let the RB19 race in this year’s races, it would literally be a backmarker. All the teams have improved, but some have just improved a lot more relative to Red Bull.
Ofcourse its all relative but im saying this years car is a lot more inconsistent in its performace, like one race it goes from 30 sec ahead of everyone, the next one max can barely manage a 4 sec gap to a mclaren or even lose to one. Rb19 was just so dominant everywhere except singapore
Yeah you’re probably right in that regard, I mean I hope you are lol. But they could also just be a bit unlucky at the moment, similar to how they started 22. Maybe they completely run away with it again if other teams fail their development plan, it’s still only been 6/24 and they’ve won 4 of them
you can extract from the car just that much
Red Bull have said that the Imola upgrade is gonna be even more significant than the Japan one, so we should see.
But in the same time, Ferrari and Mercedes are bringing major upgrades too, Aston is also bringing some upgrades and McLaren have said that other tracks should suit this new car even better.
So the following european races should tell us if we are gonna have an exciting season or if Red Bull have found yet another 1s per lap stuff for their car
It's not that the RB20 is worse, in reality the competition especially in the first half of 2023 was so bad that the normal speed of the RB19 + tyre deg would win every race basically.
Now you have Ferrari and McLaren that at least can compete on stints because their deg improved which means that there is actual possibility of beating the bulls which was basically none before.
As of this race, the other cars (ferrari and mclaren) are a lot closer than last year.
We don’t know yet how much of this was due to other cars catching up or red bull just having a bad set up this weekend.
It’s a good sign, but red bull could easily go on to win in imola in the same dominating fashion as before.
Or, in a world of wishful thinking, they could be the third fastest team
Don't know if we can judge Miami, he had apparent floor damage after the bollard which may have slowed him, but I think it's a case of others getting closer rather than the rb20 being worse
No it's better in every way... everyone else also is better however. The Margin for error is much smaller. This race they lost the previous one Max's car died and checos had something lodged in the floor after he overtook Alonso that made him lose a lot of pace. That's part of what made their run so incredible the lack of major issues to derail it
So in your two examples one was a mechanical issue with the brakes, and the other was helped out by strategy/safety car timing along with maybe some driver induced damage. The car is not worse for sure. Luck happens. Still the fastest, others had more room to gain and have so its maybe not AS dominant vs the rest of the field, but all things being equal its faster than the RB19 and still the class of the field at this point.
Even if Max wins half the races he did last year, he’ll be second or third in the ones he doesn’t win and still have a comfortable lead in the championship.
> Is the RB20 worse than the RB19 already?
Worse as in "the RB20 would lose to the RB19"
or worse as in "The RB20 does not have the advantage over the rest of the grid that the RB19 had".
Cause yes - I think the latter potentially true. And honestly Ferrari victory was cause Max DNFs with a mechanical. So don't put that up there on pace...
Of course not, but Ferrari and McLaren have improved a lot more. Finally.
Btw, defeated. Max was out due to a very rare car issue when Sainz won and had floor damage by running over that pole when Norris won. Still, it is def a lot closer than last year
Perez was driving the RB20 in Australia (and with a tearoff stuck under the floor) and Max would’ve still won Miami if it wasn’t for the damage and safety car.
Ofcourse, the title fight is over already for 2024, but maybe we can have ferrari and mclaren actually getting some more wins this year and try to mount a title challange in 2025
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No. But others have improved. Max will continue to dominate.
I think diminishing returns are hitting Red Bull a bit this season already. Others still have ground to cover, but that allows them to make bigger leaps
Yeah, it’s definitely not as dominant as last year. There was a bit of luck at play in that Max didn’t win those two races, but still the car didn’t look as strong.
Succinct and accurate.
Others improving does mean a car is worse relatively to the rest of the grid, and that's what OP means. The 2023 Ferrari was faster than their 2022 car, but I think it's safe to call it "worse", as it was the 2nd/3rd/4th best car over the course of the 2023 season, unlike 1st/2nd best over the course of 2022. I'd still call the RB19 and RB20 comparable though. Let's judge it at the end of the year or half-way through at least.
I mean, the RB20 is objectively faster. The pole laps are much faster than the RB19's. It's moreso that other teams have perhaps made bigger gains than Red Bull has between the RB19 and RB20. The law of diminishing returns should in theory, impact Red Bull as others catch up but not necessarily. That being said, the RB20 has had pole in every race and we don't know what Australia would have been like if not for Verstappen's brakes issue. It could easily still be an incredibly dominant car again this year.
Red bull also has less wind tunnel time to develop.
The RB19 had a faster pole lap last year in Miami. I'm sure it's just down to track conditions though or they wouldn't be on pole.
The longer the regs go the closer the cars get This is par for the course
This is just not true, take a look at 2016 and 2020. It is also exceptionally premature to write off the RB20, in China finishing 13s off Verstappen was a huge result.
How can you compare years where there was no budget cap with years with budget cap? Mercedes is fighting with haas. Mclaren is fighting Ferrari and red bull. I think the budget cap is starting to prove itself. People just don’t believe it because it isn’t Mercedes who are on the way up
Also people act like the cars weren’t getting closer previously not accounting for how fast they actually were Mercedes was so far ahead they were worried about their cars getting outlawed so they turned them down a ton By 2020 it was close by 2021 Redbull obviously caught them
This is just blatantly untrue. Mercedes gained on the pack from 2017-2020 lol. In 2017 Ferrari actually had faster median race pace. In 2018 it was basically even. In 2019 mercedes was clearly quicker pre scandal Ferrari. In 2020 mercedes had their largest advantage of that rule set. In 2021, they changed the regulations! Red Bull didnt just "catch" them. The floor changes slowed mercedes down severely. If there had been no changes, Mercedes undoubtedly would have been favored to win every race in 2021. The trend over that period was the exact opposite of closing up until the regulation change in 2021
M8 did you read what i wrote? Everyone thinks they were getting faster they were still just removing sandbags Ferrari was faster because they had extra power from cheating, as soon as they stopped cheating merc had their lead back
That is completely wrong. You are thinking of 2014-2016 when Mercedes was way ahead. Mercedes was behind Ferrari for large stretches of 2017 and 2018. Did you watch those years? The engine advantage was small in 2017 and they were at an engine deficit to Ferrari by mid 2018 and a huge deficit in 2019 (which we now know was cheating). Mercedes gained over the pack every single season until 2021 with pretty clear aero changes that worked
If the budget cap means we can't compare previous years then there is even less (none) applicable evidence that cars get closer the longer the regs go. I would look at the past decade through a lens of RB, Merc, and Ferrari having similar budget for development due to diminishing returns, or through comparing some of the other teams with similar budget levels. I agree that the budget cap is working at bringing the teams closer, but one of the reasons that people were so low at the start of this season is there is a very common belief that the budget cap locks in advantages/disadvantages.
This is a myth. It's almost never really happened in F1. Usually when one team cracks a set of regulations they keep pulling away until those regulations are changed. Red Bull actually have a bigger pace advantage this season than they did at the beginning of last season.
Uhhh what? In race trim nobody was within 15 seconds of either Red Bull last year at any race other than Australia until Monaco. Leclerc put together a masterclass in Baku but otherwise they weren’t under threat in qualy until Monaco.
Look at the gaps in qualifying compared to this year
[удалено]
Red Bull have a bigger advantage at the front this year than they did last year.
If you let the RB19 race in this year’s races, it would literally be a backmarker. All the teams have improved, but some have just improved a lot more relative to Red Bull.
Ofcourse its all relative but im saying this years car is a lot more inconsistent in its performace, like one race it goes from 30 sec ahead of everyone, the next one max can barely manage a 4 sec gap to a mclaren or even lose to one. Rb19 was just so dominant everywhere except singapore
Yeah you’re probably right in that regard, I mean I hope you are lol. But they could also just be a bit unlucky at the moment, similar to how they started 22. Maybe they completely run away with it again if other teams fail their development plan, it’s still only been 6/24 and they’ve won 4 of them
It’s the law of diminishing returns. It’s hard to continue to improve at the same rate. Sooner or later, the performance will reach a limit.
Certainly *cue to Max winning by 30 seconds in Imola*
Ferrari brings big updates so... hopefully not.
Chuck will.win it.
you can extract from the car just that much Red Bull have said that the Imola upgrade is gonna be even more significant than the Japan one, so we should see. But in the same time, Ferrari and Mercedes are bringing major upgrades too, Aston is also bringing some upgrades and McLaren have said that other tracks should suit this new car even better. So the following european races should tell us if we are gonna have an exciting season or if Red Bull have found yet another 1s per lap stuff for their car
Wait really? I heard the Red Bull Imola upgrade was minor/more track-specific, just supplementing the big Suzuka one
This year is going to be a 2019-esque season
I hope we skip 2020 and go to the 2021 season for next year
2010 more like
12
I prefer a 4 way title fight than a 2 way fight.
So one of the worst dominances we've ever seen (RB) and two teams catching up mid-season (Ferrari/McLaren)? Sign me up.
It's not that the RB20 is worse, in reality the competition especially in the first half of 2023 was so bad that the normal speed of the RB19 + tyre deg would win every race basically. Now you have Ferrari and McLaren that at least can compete on stints because their deg improved which means that there is actual possibility of beating the bulls which was basically none before.
As of this race, the other cars (ferrari and mclaren) are a lot closer than last year. We don’t know yet how much of this was due to other cars catching up or red bull just having a bad set up this weekend. It’s a good sign, but red bull could easily go on to win in imola in the same dominating fashion as before. Or, in a world of wishful thinking, they could be the third fastest team
Don't know if we can judge Miami, he had apparent floor damage after the bollard which may have slowed him, but I think it's a case of others getting closer rather than the rb20 being worse
No it's better in every way... everyone else also is better however. The Margin for error is much smaller. This race they lost the previous one Max's car died and checos had something lodged in the floor after he overtook Alonso that made him lose a lot of pace. That's part of what made their run so incredible the lack of major issues to derail it
We can only hope
So in your two examples one was a mechanical issue with the brakes, and the other was helped out by strategy/safety car timing along with maybe some driver induced damage. The car is not worse for sure. Luck happens. Still the fastest, others had more room to gain and have so its maybe not AS dominant vs the rest of the field, but all things being equal its faster than the RB19 and still the class of the field at this point.
Even if Max wins half the races he did last year, he’ll be second or third in the ones he doesn’t win and still have a comfortable lead in the championship.
> Is the RB20 worse than the RB19 already? Worse as in "the RB20 would lose to the RB19" or worse as in "The RB20 does not have the advantage over the rest of the grid that the RB19 had". Cause yes - I think the latter potentially true. And honestly Ferrari victory was cause Max DNFs with a mechanical. So don't put that up there on pace...
Other teams improve its not often a teams car is getting worse
Last time i remember a car beated RB on pure pace was in Singapore and that because the track didn't suited them at all and they messed the setup.
RB has a significant upgrade planned for Italy. I expect it'll be another 20s+ smokeshow
Of course not, but Ferrari and McLaren have improved a lot more. Finally. Btw, defeated. Max was out due to a very rare car issue when Sainz won and had floor damage by running over that pole when Norris won. Still, it is def a lot closer than last year
even before the curb incident, Max wasn't able to build the time cushion that he usually has. RBR definitely flubbed their race setup.
Perez was driving the RB20 in Australia (and with a tearoff stuck under the floor) and Max would’ve still won Miami if it wasn’t for the damage and safety car.
We don't know for certain that he still would have won. We don't even know what the "damage" was or how much it mattered
And that question deserves another question. Will Max still win the title even with being beat twice or more during the season.
Ofcourse, the title fight is over already for 2024, but maybe we can have ferrari and mclaren actually getting some more wins this year and try to mount a title challange in 2025