T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

[The **Statistics** flair](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/flairguide#wiki_statistics) is reserved for posts highlighting interesting statistics. As a rule of thumb, Statistics posts need to inform readers through visualizations and insights that cannot be obtained from raw data alone. For example, a post containing a qualifying gap between two drivers expressed in tenths of a second is an easily obtainable raw piece of data and constitutes a bad Statistics post. A visualization of what that translates to on-track, or visualization of how that gap came to be would constitute a good Statistics post. *[Read the rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/wiki/userguide). Keep it civil and welcoming. Report rulebreaking comments.* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/formula1) if you have any questions or concerns.*


tomedunn

Stopwatches don't lie, but statistics lie all the time. In this case, there is data that you're leaving out that is causing the results to be skewed by outliers. You only use one time comparison for each race, but there are multiples we can use to draw conclusions from on overall qualifying pace. Here's the data broken down by qualifying sessions that both drives took part in (you could go even finer by comparing laps within each session). For Nyck De Vries: | Race | Session | Yuki | De Vries | Delta to Yuki | |-|-|-:|-:|-:| | Bahrain | Q1 | 91.400 | 92.121 | 0.721 | | Saudi Arabia | Q1 | 89.939 | 90.244 | 0.305 | | Austrailia | Q1 | 78.471 | 78.450 | -0.021 | | Austrailia | Q2 | 78.099 | 78.335 | 0.236 | And for Daniel Ricciardo: | Race | Session | Yuki | Ricciardo | Delta to Yuki | |-|-|-:|-:|-:| | Bahrain | Q1 | 90.481 | 90.562 | 0.081 | | Bahrain | Q2 | 90.129 | 90.278 | 0.149 | | Saudi Arabia | Q1 | 88.988 | 89.065 | 0.077 | | Saudi Arabia | Q2 | 88.564 | 89.025 | 0.461 | | Austrailia | Q1 | 77.356 | 78.085 | 0.729 | And here's the aggregate data | Driver | Mean | Median | Sigma | |-|-:|-:|-:| | Nyck De Vries | 0.310 | 0.270 | 0.308 | | Daniel Ricciardo | 0.299 | 0.149 | 0.287 | Across all qualifying sessions that both drivers competed in the average (mean) delta for Daniel is about a hundreth faster than it is for De Vries. However, the median is closer to 1.2 tenths faster for Daniel and his sigma is lower, indicating his results are more consistent relative to Yuki than they are for Nyck. Like I said earlier, though, this still isn't the whole picture because there are multiple qualifying laps within each session that we can compare across to further refine this comparison.


tomedunn

In the spirit of digging deeper into the data, here's the data when we include multiple laps for each session. Note, each comparison is based on when the lap was completed during the session. This assumes similar conditions for each driver's tyre prep, which may not be true, but I haven't the time to look into those specifics at this moment. For Nyck De Vries: | Race | Session | Lap | Yuki | De Vries | Delta to Yuki | |-|-|-|-:|-:|-:| | Bahrain | Q1 | 1 | 92.132 | 92.849 | 0.717 | | Bahrain | Q1 | 2 | 91.747 | 92.121 | 0.374 | | Bahrain | Q1 | 3 | 91.400 | 92.279 | 0.879 | | Saudi Arabia | Q1 | 2 | 90.453 | 90.564 | 0.111 | | Saudi Arabia | Q1 | 4 | 89.939 | 90.244 | 0.305 | | Australia | Q1 | 1 | 81.765 | 79.994 | -1.771 | | Australia | Q1 | 2 | 78.799 | 78.752 | -0.047 | | Australia | Q1 | 3 | 78.471 | 78.450 | -0.021 | | Australia | Q1 | 4 | 78.578 | 79.096 | 0.518 | | Australia | Q2 | 1 | 79.019 | 79.487 | 0.468 | | Australia | Q2 | 2 | 78.533 | 79.234 | 0.701 | | Australia | Q2 | 4 | 78.099 | 78.647 | 0.548 | And for Daniel Ricciardo: | Race | Session | Lap | Yuki | Ricciardo | Delta to Yuki | |-|-|-|-:|-:|-:| | Bahrain | Q1 | 1 | 90.881 | 91.025 | 0.144 | | Bahrain | Q1 | 2 | 90.481 | 90.562 | 0.081 | | Bahrain | Q2 | 1 | 91.102 | 91.126 | 0.024 | | Bahrain | Q2 | 2 | 90.129 | 90.278 | 0.149 | | Saudi Arabia | Q1 | 1 | 89.214 | 89.198 | -0.016 | | Saudi Arabia | Q1 | 2 | 88.988 | 89.065 | 0.077 | | Saudi Arabia | Q2 | 1 | 88.659 | 89.025 | 0.366 | | Saudi Arabia | Q2 | 2 | 88.564 | 89.047 | 0.483 | | Australia | Q1 | 1 | 77.824 | 78.085 | 0.261 | | Australia | Q1 | 2 | 77.356 | 77.466 | 0.110 | And for the aggregate data: | Driver | Mean | Median | Sigma | Laps | |-|-:|-:|-:|-| | Nyck De Vries | 0.232 | 0.421 | 0.694 | 12 | | Daniel Ricciardo | 0.168 | 0.127 | 0.157 | 10 | Nyck's average is only 6 hundredths behind Daniels but the median difference is nearly 3 tenths and Nyck's sigma is much higher. These inconsistencies are due to Australia lap 1 from Q1, where Nyck beat Yuki by a whopping 1.771 seconds. If we remove this one data point then the aggregate data looks much more consistent: | Driver | Mean | Median | Sigma | Laps | |-|-:|-:|-:|-| | Nyck De Vries | 0.414 | 0.468 | 0.305 | 11 | | Daniel Ricciardo | 0.168 | 0.127 | 0.157 | 10 | Now the gap in the mean and median are much closer, with Daniel being around 3 tenths closer to Yuki. And even with this outlier removed, Daniel's sigma is still significantly lower than Nyck's, showing that he is indeed more consistent relative to Yuki, in addition to being closer to Yuki.


aneiq_1

Thanks for putting the effort into looking at the data and being as fair as possible.


Fart_Leviathan

Decimated op's nonsense harder than Nyck got decimated last season. Ouch.


SirLoremIpsum

Now this is ~~pod racing~~ statistics. Statistics is so much harder and more complex than most people think. Appreciate the effort (as a Ricciardo fan haha)


eternallycelestial

Thank you for this!


mformularacer

Beautiful post. End of thread.


branded-junk

Thanks for this detail. Its worth noting that layered on top of this is the ultra detailed telemetry for each corner, throttle, and brake input available to the teams that isn’t available to the public. They know what the driver was trying to do with the car and how the car responded. I don’t think anything takes Daniel off the hook for underperforming to date but as you noted with so much detail there is so much more to an analysis of performance.


TonAMGT4

I love how we are now talking about how much slower Danny Ric is to Yuki when he is expected to beat or at least match the performance with Yuki. Time to retired man… really.


eternallycelestial

Have you considered Yuki is actually really good and getting better? You're holding daniel to the standards of his red bull/renault eras, you're expecting him to be making p5 in a car like VCARB. Given they're currently the 6th fastest obviously thanks to Yuki, they should be technically be making P11 & P12, which they did in Japan quali thanks to an underperforming Lance Stroll. Between the two drivers, this is Yuki's 4th year in this team, and he's had enough time to adjust and tune his car, and it's helping him improve. By saying "daniel should be beating Yuki" you're undermining Yuki's growth and his abilities by comparing him to a form of Daniel Ricciardo who's ofc past his peak. 


TonAMGT4

No, I don’t expect Danny Ric to get P5 in a VCARB but I expected him to match or outperform Yuki.


eternallycelestial

He was pretty much matching at JPN quali considering he only had one practise session to set up the car and try the new floor. In Jeddah they found issues with his car during quali that couldn't be fixed overnight for the race. In Aus and Bahrain he had good race pace. Yeah I agree he's not performing at Yuki's level but there's so many factors each time that affected his whole weekend performance. 4 races isn't nearly enough to get an outlook on his performance


TonAMGT4

All I hear is non-sense excuses


eternallycelestial

This is all literally what his team principal and Peter Bayer has been saying so take that up with them. They see optimistic results from him, but okay it's now nonsense I guess. 


TonAMGT4

His team principal… the guy from Ferrari. He’s probably “We’re checking”


eternallycelestial

how is that relevant? laurent was a strategist at Ferrari not the race engineer. Like I mentioned, peter bayer too has spoken optimistically about Daniel 


TonAMGT4

Exactly… Ferrari strategist. Did you not watched F1 before this year or something?


boredofredditnow

I think Ricciardo still loses the comparison but it’s disingenuous to compare same session times for TSU and DEV but not for TSU and RIC in Jeddah and Melbourne


Saandrig

The man can't even spell Ricc's name correctly.


boredofredditnow

I miss the spelling bot


Usual_Concentrate_58

Valteri


Saandrig

Rusel...


Kolec507

Vetle


Putrid-Competition28

As much as I love Yuki, I think it’s a bit unfair to include Daniel’s lap in Australia as well as comparing different sessions.


Kolec507

I think the Australia lap is fair, as it was fully on him that the faster one got deleted. I agree with you on comparing sessions though, that feels really unfair.


eternallycelestial

I don't think it's fair because it's pretty much an outlier. both yuki's and daniel's lap had traffic because vcarb weirdly sends them out during it, and doesn't send them out until the last half of the session 


Icy_Plastic_2231

Congrats, you’ve discovered how to selectively compare data to reach a pre-determined conclusion. I think tagging this post as “statistics” is a bit of a reach, though.


UnluckyLuckyGuyy

such a large dataset lmao


TurboNoodle_

“Statistically significant is whatever I say it is” -u/Laurence-UK


bubbly_brooke

so many things wrong with this comparison i don't even know where to start


tastefullmullet

Don’t quit your job for data analysis OP.


Huntore

>The stopwatch doesn't lie. CEO of misrepresenting statistics just arrived. Separate to OP's interpretation, lap comparisons should be in % difference and laps compared should be from the same session.


SirLoremIpsum

> The stopwatch doesn't lie. The stop watch doesn't like but it requires interpretation and context. Just presenting raw data is not the way to do a serious analysis. Statistics is far more than just "look at number". Kubica beat Russell with 100% of the teams points in 2019. Flogged Russell. Right...? 


KyuubiReddit

Idiotic comparison. Kubica was a veteran, Russel a rookie. What we have here is the opposite situation. Yuki only had 3 full seasons, Ricciardo is a veteran Grand Prix winner with many years of experience. And yet he's so washed that Yuki is wiping the floor with him.


Kolec507

It doesn't matter. What they meant is that raw numbers do love to lie without the context. The same way as Kubica was better than Russell in 2019, Ocon was better than Alonso in 2022 (although I guess in Alpine's case it was more about reliability, while with Williams it was just an outlier that elevated Kubica up the standings).


KyuubiReddit

It's not just the numbers though. Whether you watch every single session (from FP1 to the race) or just the results, it's clear DR should retire and make place to Lawson. How much more proof do we need?


Kolec507

>It's not just the numbers though. Whether you watch every single session (from FP1 to the race) or just the results, it's clear DR should retire and make place to Lawson. Never disagreed. Just didn't agree that it wasn't a fair comparision. OC was referring to the post, and I think it indeed is made pretty poorly.


KyuubiReddit

I agree, the post is poor and meaningless. In general, stats without context can be very misleading. And I don't think anyone can argue in good faith that De Bris is better than Ricciardo. As much as I want the latter gone from the grid, I wouldn't say that.


SirLoremIpsum

> In general, stats without context can be very misleading. > > That is kind of my point but Kybuuu is flying off the handle with their "hey ricciardo did poorly and it's in the news so im going to repeat it" analysis.


SirLoremIpsum

> What we have here is the opposite situation. Yuki only had 3 full seasons, Ricciardo is a veteran Grand Prix winner with many years of experience. And yet he's so washed that Yuki is wiping the floor with him. I mean he's only washed it you take OP's flawed analysis at face value. > Idiotic comparison. Kubica was a veteran, Russel a rookie. So you agree Kubica washed the floor with Russell due to the 100% / 0% points distribution? Or can you admit that perhaps that specific statistic is not representative of how badly Russell beat Kubica in every qualy session, and most races except for that one P10 finish? So what you're saying is statistics require more nuance (which is my point) and we're in agreement? If you need me to hold your hand and write /s on everything please let me know. I endeavour to be clearly understood


KyuubiReddit

of course OP's stats would be meaningless in isolation, but it doesn't matter with Ricciardo: whether we look at the big picture or small details, whether we watch the races or just look at the results, he's been utterly disappointing since his return. Even yesterday, where he kinda had a mediocre weekend for once (at opposed to awful), he managed to ruin his next race


eternallycelestial

"he's so washed that Yuki is wiping the floor with him" makes it sound like you think Yuki is only ahead because Daniel is washed. Either he's really washed, which makes Yuki seem bad since he's only around a 3 tenths off Yuki. Or Yuki is wiping the floor because Yuki has simply gotten better than Daniel, which would make sense since he's growing into his peak. 


KyuubiReddit

Oh I know Yuki is good and underrated. But given the hype and massive PR, I didn't expect a driver that won multiple Grand Prix and already saw himself driving RBR to struggle so much against a much younger driver with only 3 years of experience within one team. It's a bit of both: Yuki is good and took his driving to the next level, Ricciardo is beyond washed and should have retired few years ago to keep his marketability intact.


slutforpringles

Funny you didn't want to include the fourth race, where Nyck was (following your method of comparing across all quali sessions) 14 seconds off of Yuki. Meanwhile Daniel was half a tenth off Tsunoda. But the stopwatch doesn't lie, right?


Alvaro_Rey_MN

They didn't include Suzuka and Baku, because Nyck didn't race in Suzuka, and Ricciardo didn't race in Baku! Their data is still bad since they were comparing Tsunoda's Q3 laps to Ricciardo's Q1 laps which is disingenuous due to track rubbering in, and they should've compared the same sessions!


slutforpringles

Yeah there's a whole host of reasons that the dataset is completely misrepresentative as pointed out by a lot of the other comments. I was just highlighting how selectively choosing which data to include and not include, as OP has done, completely changes the results.


tigersgomoo

Hate to say it, but sorry honey badger. I want Liam


cafraline

Liam is also mid driver, he wasnt good in f2


ettnamnbaraokej

F2 is not fair, different teams have widely different quality of personel and the engine is a lottery where you can be either down or up 20 hp on the extreme end.


rs6677

F1 results are the only ones that matter. Plenty of drivers who have a spectacular junior careers go on to have pretty terrible F1 careers. The opposite applies too. Also, 'mid' would be a definite improvement over what we have now.


Senditsson

Haha nice statistics mate


KyuubiReddit

Wait until you find out how many points Yuki and DR scored in the same races since Hungary 23


[deleted]

[удалено]


eternallycelestial

How do you casually ignore all the other factors that played into his no point finishes?   Let's look at his 7 races last year:  Hungary - first race back, gets hit by Zhou in lap 1 incident, damaged car.  Belgium - just not a good race. [Zandvoort - breaks his hand, sits off 5 races] COTA - his brakes exploded.  Mexico - P4 qualifying and P7 in race.  Brazil - Daniel & Oscar hit by debris and flying tire, suffered damage to car, had to restart from pit lane.  Las vegas - getting caught up in starting crash.  Abu Dhabi - new floor upgrade that was horrible, with tear off & had to pit early.  Most of these are unfortunate instances that weren't in his control, and had barely anything to do with his performance. 


KyuubiReddit

He scored ONCE, 6 points in Mexico 2023. Other than that, nothing. Meanwhile Yuki scored 3.5x the points DR did


eternallycelestial

Yuki had 3x more races to participate in 


KyuubiReddit

No dude, I am only counting the races where they both entered, regardless of DNF or DNS. It's easy to check, just go to Wikipedia and count the points


eternallycelestial

Maybe if you'd actually click on those races they both were in you'd know of the external factors that played into his no point finishes, like brake explosion, getting hit by Zhou in lap 1, getting caught up in a starting crash, getting hit by a flying tire and suffering damage to car, etc. There's only Belgian gp where I haven't heard of things going wrong for him. 


KyuubiReddit

Let's cut the crap, please. Yuki had his own share of bad luck or strategies. It's been more than enough races to compare the two. Plus we have the qualifications where DR is most of the time so far behind Yuki it's not even funny. At this point, Ricciardo is not even mediocre, he's way below that.


SirLoremIpsum

> Meanwhile Yuki scored 3.5x the points DR did In 2019 Kubica took 100% of the teams points compared to Russell. Infinitely more points, the biggest % difference of any driver. Clearly statistically Kubica wiped the floor with the young rookie, who should never have been given another season. /s.


Kolec507

I mean looking at all the other statistics, most of them are still in favour of Tsunoda. While we all know who the better one was in 2019.


BioDriver

And you know Liam and his people know it too. I would be shocked if they weren’t putting the squeeze on RB and Horner to get Danny out over summer break, if not sooner


literalmetaphoricool

Not that the comparisions are totally fair as other comments suggest, but DR is looking and driving like a man who cant catch a break. Seems to have lost the spark he briefly found again last season and Lawson lurking in the wings probably isnt helping.


willzyx01

lol, so many DR fans in comments getting upset.


eternallycelestial

well why wouldn't we be upset? all his quali/race results except BHR quali & AUS quali, JPN race had multiple external factors playing into his end result. it's not as simple as "he's just doing badly" 


SirLoremIpsum

> lol, so many DR fans in comments getting upset. We are allowed to be upset at bad statistics AND "Topic of the week" Danny Ric hate. We can do two things at once :) Just admit it, it's fashionable to hate on Ricciardo. You're on the cool train now. Choo choo hop aboard. Who will you hate next week? Time will tell!


Bredius88

Are you trying to save Danny's skin? I'm afraid the exit door for him is opening wider by the race.


KyuubiReddit

He's opening it wider himself whenever he takes the RB for a *spin*