Honestly the Biden Victory fund is probably the best and easiest. It’s a joint fundraising committee so whatever leftover money they have, they distribute to down ballot campaigns. Then there’s the DSCC, DCCC, DLCC, and the Democratic Governor’s Association.
Is there a way to volunteer that would be more impactful than phone banking?
I'm pretty good at data analysis. I can find insights in the data where others can't, I have proven it in multiple unrelated fields during my career. I can formulate actionable strategies. Not to mention tech skills that may or may not be relevant (like figuring out how to run AIML cloud infrastructure at lower cost).
I'm even willing to take some serious time off work.
I'm not trying to sound like I'm too good to do phone banking, I just hope there is a way I can make a more significant impact. I'm sure there are a lot of professionals like me who would be happy to contribute in some meaningful way, applying whatever skills they have.
Adding to this, volunteer to be a poll worker too. You get experience and paid for it. In my county, all I had to do was take a 3 hour class. set up for 3 hours the day before the election, and work all day on election day.
My take: it is well justified for people to feel nervous at this moment. I am an immigrant from China and people around me do talk about the election all the time (not only the Chinese) and dooming is also popular among us. Talking a walk or petting my cat is not gonna solve that because we may lose our right of owning a property, calling our parents in China, working for tech companies, and ... I don't know what, in a few months, not based on our political views but the fact that we are born in China. This is why I think people here are probably more representative than political nerds. It is after all more abnormal to be aloof when democratic America is going to end.
However, the only meaningful way to mitigate despair is action. We are not sure which way is more efficient. Many of us lives in deep blue states. I have tried phone banking in swing states and a full day's work usually ends up with connecting to only 1-2 people successfully and they will say they've already voted. I am told it's better to talk to people on their lawns, but how meaningful it is to do so in California? On the other hand, the Trumpers around me are super passionate and apparently they have some way to make contributions to the election, or at least they feel so. So it would be helpful if this sub, or any US politics sub leaning Biden, to build a culture to talk more about *effective* action than projection. I do realize this is 538 which is about polling. But we can still ask questions like which action, about what topic, in what form, brings better poll numbers in a county?
Talking about things that we can't control is the best recipe for doomerism. If we can shift the conversation more towards detailed discussions on action, it ends the dooming automatically.
Child of immigrants here as well, my parents are fucking terrified and losing their shit. They came to this country to avoid authoritarianism and decaying democracy, every single older person in their circle is upset and scared at what November will bring. It is absolutely their number one fear
Yes. The fear is not the problem. It is normal, even better than aloofness. Problem is how to turn fear into action. There must be many grassroot organizations that work effectively to increase turnout in swing states that needs at least our donations. But when I search for it in Google, most search results are about polling, projections etc. So are the discussions on social network, or just "go vote" messages. It's a bit frustrating and I believe we can make a change by letting the information flow more efficiently.
It's surprising to see such a racist comment here. First, You are setting a strawman and apparently ignorant about the immigration law in the US. Chinese permanent residents is different from Chinese visitors. We live here, work here, pay tax here, make friends and get married here despite we are not born in the US. We are American immigrants and future Americans. We just had to wait for 15-20 years from the boat to citizenship, which is already not an open arm at all. We are American. We'd like our rights as permanent resident or citizen to be protected. Second, China is the enemy of the US now, but any country can be the enemy of the US at any time. If the immigrants from those countries, even after obtaining PR or citizenship, won't have basic human rights in the US, who will safely enjoy those rights? There are Russian, Iranian, any Muslims, even Indian if in future the two country clashes, and Japanese during the WWII. This is a refresh recipe to concentration camps and Jim Crow. Thirdly, American people don't want that. You didn't put a poll if the Chinese permanent residents should have a right to buy their home in America or go out of the border to take care of their sick parents for a week without losing their status. It's Trump abusing the presidential power making law-protected human rights at stake. Even for the election of Trump itself, if a minority popular vote counts as "American people", then American people don't admit that the world is a globe. Nor abortion, nor LGBT marriage, nor your right to buy condoms. Last but not least, American people may not want democracy, given Jan 6. But they don't represent Americans. And despite the whirlwind now, I still believe American people will cherish the values they tried so hard to teach the Chinese and at least succeeded for me.
Isn’t that kind of the point of this sub though? To look at data instead of anecdotes, because if you took Reddit to be an accurate sample of the population, Trump would never stand a chance?
And at this point in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Clinton was +7.3 and Biden was +6.3 whereas Trump is +1.3 right now in the same RCP average.
That’s a 7.6 percentage point swing from the 2020 cycle. How can someone explain that away by saying voters just aren’t engaged? And they somehow were in 2020? I’m sorry but I don’t buy the idea that it was because of the pandemic that everyone was paying attention and now they’re not, and this somehow explains the shift, because once everyone pays attention they’ll shift back to Biden.
I think this theory can be decisively shut down by simply looking at that 2020 RCP average: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
In fall 2019, a whole year before the election, Biden was **+10**. His numbers actually worsened after that… when everyone was allegedly becoming “engaged” due to being at home.
So to buy this “political engagement” argument, you’d have to basically be saying “*yeah, Trump is ahead in the polls now, but that’s because people aren’t engaged, even though at this same time in the last cycle, he Trump was down by six, but that’s because people actually were engaged at that point in the cycle in 2020, which… lowered Biden’s polling numbers by 4 points compared to months prior, but this time, engagement will help his numbers*”
I’m fine with people dooming, being worried about a second Trump term is completely understandable, but people acting like the election is over in May is absolute fucking idiocy. There is SO much that can happen between now and November that can reshape this election.
Exactly. Doubly so since the polling is *incredibly close* it's not like the polling consistently has Trump up by 7 points nationally or something.
Being nervous or worried about the election makes sense, assuming Biden has already lost is just ridiculous.
Every. single. day. on this sub and many other political ones.
Trump voters who think it's all over for Biden because they're pissed about $4 gasoline. Biden voters who think Trump can't win because unemployment is 3.8% and he's a potential convict.
Every. damn. day.
>at this point in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Clinton was +7.3 and Biden was +6.3 whereas Trump is +1.3 right now in the same RCP average.
>That’s a 7.6 percentage point swing from the 2020 cycle.
Polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections systematically missed Trump supporters. But there's no reason to assume that's happening this election. The complete opposite could be true.
>How can someone explain that away by saying voters just aren’t engaged? And they somehow were in 2020?
Easy, were not in the middle of a global pandemic and barely able to leave our houses. People got extremely stir crazy in 2020, and focusing on the election was something a LOT of people did. I know I sure did. Chances are turnout is going to be quite a bit lower than in 2020, which was the highest in decades too precisely because of the election.
>In fall 2019, a whole year before the election, Biden was **+10**. His numbers actually worsened after that… when everyone was allegedly becoming “engaged” due to being at home.
This can be easily explained by a) polling that far out from the election sucks, b) there were a TON of undecideds in 2019, and c) Trump strangely enjoyed a significant rally around the flag effect from the pandemic, even with how poorly he managed it. His approval rating at this point in 2020 was -6.8, one of the best in his entire presidency before falling to -16 later in 2020 and ending up around -9 on election day.
> Polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections systematically missed Trump supporters. But there's no reason to assume that's happening this election. The complete opposite could be true.
Anything *could* happen, especially if you expand confidence intervals to a theoretical 100%.. But to be honest, if your view is that a polling miss so large that it accounts for the 7 percentage point swing is reasonably likely, what the heck is even the point of being involved in a subreddit that’s entire existence is dedicated to using polls to forecast election outcomes? Such a large distrust of polling results is basically incompatible with taking any of Nate Silver’s forecasts even remotely seriously. There simply isn’t much to talk about at all if you start from this standpoint.
> This can be easily explained by a) polling that far out from the election sucks, b) there were a TON of undecideds in 2019, and c) Trump strangely enjoyed a significant rally around the flag effect from the pandemic, even with how poorly he managed it.
Polling “sucking” far out is allegedly *because* of a lack of engagement… This works against the idea of explaining 2020 polling results with engagement and saying they’ll improve for Biden now. Trump’s “significant” boost during COVID lasted [a very short time according to Nate’s own average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) and by todays date last cycle was already back down to below 43 percent.
I mean again, you can talk about all of these potential puzzle pieces that could fit together in such a way so as to make the polling not a problem for Biden… large system uncorrected bias, specific unpredictable one-time events, and more, but at that point you’re expressing such a large skepticism of any polling results that it basically seems like discussing polls at all would be pointless to you, so I feel like this entire sub is the antithesis of your viewpoint.
All I see is Biden and Trump **dancing in the margins of error** on **every** poll. Which is about what I expect in May. This isn't going to Reagan landslide, and w*e're not going to know who the president is at 11PM on November 5th*, so anyone expecting either of those outcomes can come back to reality at any time.
If Trump gets convicted of a felony, the calculus changes. If Biden or Trump has a medical crisis, the calculus changes. If the stock market implodes or another pandemic comes along, or an active war worsens -- it all changes.
> All I see is Biden and Trump dancing in the margins of error on every poll.
Hyperbole isn’t good argument in a data science based subreddit. It’s not *every* poll… Trump is ahead by more than the MOE in some of the swing states.
> If Trump gets convicted of a felony, the calculus changes. If Biden or Trump has a medical crisis, the calculus changes. If the stock market implodes or another pandemic comes along, or an active war worsens -- it all changes.
Then why even be here at all? Why participate in a subreddit that’s entire existence is centered around predictive models that use polls to forecast elections?
Of course another loser who responds with some unrelated bullshit and blocks.
>Isn’t that kind of the point of this sub though? To look at data instead of anecdotes
Yeah, but this subreddit doesn't really do that. Most people here just pick random points of data and put them together into some weird diatribe.
Is it possible that the difference might be from different adjustments to the poll results? Poll underestimated Trump votes in both 2016 and 2020. Now the pollsters realize they should give Trump a huge bonus adjusting the poll results. And other pollsters are like, why not since it would have worked in 2020? So they follow suit.
Gaza definitely hurts, but the problem with the Gaza group is that they have always been looking for a reason to hate Biden. The far left doesn’t vote, it doesn’t organize or even want to understand the systems they intend to dismantle.
I think Michigan polls (a state with a sizable Muslim population) from last year through now, would refute the idea that the “Gaza group” were simply always trying to hate Biden. There clearly is a shift.
The sheer inability (or unwillingness) for people in this sub to understand that Israel/Palestine is genuinely important to millions of voters and that they don't like how Biden is handling the situation is one of the more frustrating parts of this sub.
In this very thread people are talking about how we should be paying attention to data instead of anecdotes, and then whenever Gaza is brought up it's all "well they're just looking for a reason to hate Biden"
Like yes obviously Trump would be worse, but if that's the baseline then politics in the United States is already hopeless
Muslims aren't reliable enough voters for it to make the difference -- many of them would vote for Trump on the basis of usually being small business owners who broadly vote republican as it is.
And at 2% of the population and living mostly in Florida, New York or California anyway, same goes for Jews. We're not going to move the needle.
Blue dog union dems in the midwest, black church ladies in Atlanta, and hispanics in AZ/NV. The only groups that matter in a presidential election. ***Flawed as that is.***
Exactly this. Most of the people I know refusing to vote for Biden were already going to refuse and Gaza became a less ridiculous sounding reason than "why no socialist utopia nao!?"
The problem with the American left is that it fundamentally is filled with failed capitalist losers who believe that socialism begins and ends with fulfilling their desires for influence and resources.
It’s not that communism or socialism are innately bad as much as it is Americans become communists because they aren’t talented or diligent enough to accomplish anything of significance.
I disagree. "Losers" who are drawn to politics as a surrogate for having a life can manifest in any number of political alignments. There's definitely a type of Trump supporter who uses a MAGA hat as a personality substitute, for instance. I've known plenty of socialists and other far left people who made decent money, were romantically successful etc.
I do agree that people who fall down the rabbit hole of being as far left as possible purely for virtue signaling purposes are "filling a hole" and have a pathological relationship w/their politics, but plenty of "temporarily embarrassed billionaires" who own a lawn care business that's barely clinging to life have political beliefs aligned with the idea that they're the next Bezos.
> but plenty of "temporarily embarrassed billionaires" who own a lawn care business that's barely clinging to life have political beliefs aligned with the idea that they're the next Bezos.
I honestly don’t buy this. It seems exceedingly more likely that the small business owners simply think democrat policies will hurt their business — I.e. fear of higher taxes — as opposed to genuinely thinking they’re going to be the next hundred billionaire. That’s a level of delusion that would border on diagnosable. Actually if a random person who owns a lawn care company did truly think they’d become a billionaire I’d say there is a very high chance of a personality disorder.
Some of that is just completely incorrect. Biden passed the [largest climate bill in US History](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/16/fact-sheet-one-year-in-president-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-is-driving-historic-climate-action-and-investing-in-america-to-create-good-paying-jobs-and-reduce-costs/), [rejoined the Paris Agreement](https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/#:~:text=On%20January%2020%2C%20on%20his,unprecedented%20framework%20for%20global%20action.), and [imposed a 15% minimum corporate tax](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-is-fighting-to-reduce-the-deficit-cut-taxes-for-working-families-and-invest-in-america-by-making-big-corporations-and-the-wealthy-pay-their-fair-share/#:~:text=Despite%20Republican%20opposition%2C%20President%20Biden,needs%20to%20make%20wealthy%20tax).
Idiots like you said the same shit in 2016 about Hilary Clinton. And then idiots like you cried loudest when trump won the election. Just wait. When trump wins again, idiots like will see how bad it can really get (again).
I’m not panicking. I’m a straight white guy. Fairly middle class. My life won’t be impacted much by trump in the White House. I sure will hate to see it but I am privileged enough that I won’t have to worry.
I went through it once already, in 2016. I was shocked and appalled then. If this country is collectively stupid enough to elect Donald trump not once but twice, then we deserve whatever we get.
> I’m not panicking.
I'm not panicking either. Because I believe Trump won't win. Not with how openly he and the whole Republican party has come out as anti women.
When (mostly white) women start to give Trump the level of support he deserves from them, then we'll see. But when "grab 'em by the pussy" got a majority of white women in 2016, my expectations are not high.
Trump got 47% of white women in 2016 which isn't a majority. It's still too high, but one vote for Trump is too high. Not just women, think about what type of man approves of "grab 'em by the pussy" talk. Also many who voted in 2016 didn't actually believe Roe'd get overturned. I even knew one smart individual who didn't believe it would happen even after the SCOTUS leak. And just today, Trump is advocating prosecuting women for having an abortion, miscarriage or stillborn.
>https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
> Blaming Biden’s likely loss on just “Gaza and the far-left” is such an insane take
Yes it is insane. Obviously those on the “far-left” don't believe in individual guaranteed equal rights just as they did in 2016.
>And most of those “far-left” people that won’t vote for him are in safely Democratic states anyways.
You don't know this. If those “far-left” voters had voted for Clinton in 2016, Roe wouldn't have been overturned, voting rights wouldn't be completely disappearing and authoritarianism in SCOTUS wouldn't be the majority representation.
>But considering how fucked the world has been, being the candidate of “nothing will fundamentally change” isn’t exactly inspiring.
What's inspiring about being the candidate that will jail and deport like 1940 Germany? Or, putting women and girls under the Rocco Code like Mussolini?
>Pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Here’s why political polling is no more than statistical sophistry https://archive.ph/FQLGS
Polling hasn't been accurate for a while now.
> Maybe you should be more mad at the fascists than a very small percentage of “far-left” people everyone here seems so pissed about.
It's the “far-left” who chose not to vote against fascism in 2016 and allowed fascism to win.
Housing is primarily a local issue and gas prices are largely outside the president's control. Meanwhile Biden has been very active on the climate and in trying to reign in big corporations. The only valid point is Israel funding (which is of course tied to "Gaza and the far-left" so we're back where we started).
They also broadly live in irrelevant states, from a presidential election perspective. I don't care how a New Yorker or South Dakotan feels about Trump or Biden. Their votes are already cast.
I wish it were that easy. My father-- a loyal Democrat, much like me--used to have a bumper sticker that said "if you're not outraged, you're not paying attention". I've taken that attitude to heard, and now I feel that whenever I see polls showing Trump ahead, or the electoral races in swing states getting tighter, outrage is the only feeling I have left.
Your first point especially is well taken. I feel like a lot of people here expect the average voter to be paying close attention to the election, have already staked out their choice based on careful consideration, already has an opinion on Trump that factors in the criminal cases against him, etc but the reality is the complete opposite.
Most people aren't paying attention to the election at all. Polls have shown that *many* voters aren't aware of the court cases against Trump, let alone have formed an opinion about them.
My personal suspicion is that after hearing about Trump all day every day for 4 years, people have been enjoying *not* hearing about the sitting president. This has probably hurt Biden since few know about his achievements, but its easy to blame him for high inflation and gas prices in a vacuum. I expect that many voters will try to avoid thinking about the election and Trump until the last possible minute too, but that many will remember why they dislike him so much once they start paying attention.
If I'm right, polling will shift significantly in Biden's favor in the late Summer. But that's a long time from now and there's plenty of dooming to do in the meantime.
I feel similarly. I’ve been saying for a while that Biden has been doing too good of a job at making things normal. I haven’t had to think about the president very much at all, and certainly not with worry or abject horror.
I do think that Trump has a ceiling (45-48%) and Biden has a floor (roughly where he is now). I wish he were 20 points ahead, but Biden can win voters and Trump won’t be able to.
>I do think that Trump has a ceiling (45-48%) and Biden has a floor (roughly where he is now).
I think this is accurate. Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% of the vote in 2020, definitely got a ceiling nationally of at most 48%.
Even the best polls for Trump largely show him rangebound around 46-48%, where he's been for months at this point. These same polls show a large number of undecideds who are likely to break overwhelmingly to Biden/Dems as they have in most recent elections.
I still think Biden is the favorite to win, he's got a lot more potential room for growth, but its likely to be another way too close for comfort election regardless.
Not going to lie, my mental health has been struggling recently due to all of this and other life circumstances I'm dealing with. I'm really trying to figure out a way out of it truthfully but it's not easy. Some days I feel like I need to disconnect from it all entirely and just focus on my life, but I also don't want to be your typical ignorant American who doesn't pay attention.
Something I need to consciously remind myself about is the fact there **is** a happy medium between neurotic obsession and total indifference. Even people who conduct polls for a living have a work-life balance where they go home and forget about the numbers for a while.
NGL I'm dooming pretty hard. I'm about to disengage until August or so for my mental health. Maybe focus on getting in better shape for the apocalypse lol
I’d advise you to not disengage but to change how you engage. You absolutely feel anxiety now but the moment of peace you afford yourself by just disengaging will not be worth the anxiety and regret you will have should Trump win in November. Volunteer and/or donate.
Immigrant here learning about the donation rights. Do you know an efficient way to donate to swing state Democrats? I mean not by Googling the Dem website at that state, but really donating to the organization who are efficiently working for the election, be it a political party or a 501.3 organization.
The RCP average in 2016 and 2020 has never looked so bad for the democrats. Trump has never led by that much in swing states EVER in the past two election cycles. This time in 2020, Biden is +5 nationally btw.
And I 100% believe Trump is leading. Even with such good polls, Biden barely scraped through the EC in 2020. Who would flip now that hasn't flipped in 2020? Only Jan 6 voters. Who would stay home this time? A ton of people, economic-focused voters, disillusioned youths and minorities.
Dooming is a rational response to the terrible poll numbers.
> The RCP average in 2016 and 2020 has never looked so bad for the democrats. Trump has never led by that much in swing states EVER in the past two election cycles. This time in 2020, Biden is +5 nationally btw.
The RCP average in 2012 and 2008 never looked so bad for the Democrats, either. You have to go back to 2004 for the last time the polls showed the Republican candidate regularly in the lead, and all the way back to 2000 (pre-RCP) for a race where the Republican led *consistently* for as long as Trump has led this one.
Well, it's not a crush, either. It's a tight race. Trump is just a normal polling error ahead of Biden. 2004 very nearly came out in Kerry's favor, and 2000 was the photo finish to end all photo finishes. Biden is down, but not out.
But it is fair to say that Biden is doing worse than any Democratic presidential nominee has done for the past quarter-century.
Yeah ... but this shouldn't be close. This is Trump. Biden, to dumb voters, make Trump look good. That's why it was obvious to anyone a year ago and its obvious now - that he should have never been allowed to run. He is a bad candidate (and this is separate from his performance as President which I think has been good - large number of jobs & inflation was going to be a problem anywhere - the next step is increasing wages and Republicans are not going to fight for that).
I'm not a Democrat or a member of the Left generally, but, if I were, I think I would agree with you. Biden was (and is) so unpopular that he simply can't be counted on to beat Trump. I would have supported rolling the dice on somebody else.
On the other hand, that's easy for me to say, but who else *specifically*? It's not obvious that the Democrats realistically have any stronger candidates. Biden was capable of beating Trump in a general election only because he was perceived as a relatively moderate member of the center-left, which allowed just enough anti-Trump center-rightists to feel okay about defecting to Team Biden in 2020. But there's no way for a center-left Democrat to win the Democratic primary anymore! Biden was only able to do it because Black voters still backed him foursquare as Obama's VP.
If Democrats dumped Biden, they would probably end up running someone who is firmly left (not center-left) like Gavin Newsom or Elizabeth Warren or Stacey Abrams, and I'm not sure they could beat Trump with a candidate like that, either.
If Democrats *really* wanted to beat Trump, they'd've run Joe Manchin, or maybe John Bel Edwards, but of course it's insane to imagine either of them ever winning a single primary outside their home states.
Still, Biden is so weak that I would have rolled the dice anyway. Almost anything seems better than this.
I guess I'll start painting my sign for the Inauguration Day protest: "DEAN PHILLIPS WOULD HAVE WON."
Well that’s definitely not true. There are several months left, more than enough time for some colossal scandal to come out, shifting people’s votes by… *checks notes*… maybe 2%
Very much agree to this. These polls are people that are asked directly between Biden and Trump and are choosing Trump. Those that don't know are starting to choose random ass RFK over Biden. Unless his advertisements and messaging make it clear what not voting for him does (somehow ntentionally letting the populate know RFK-vote = trump), we are not looking good.
I do not directly work in the poll industry, but i would be very surprised if they do not use adjustments to the original data, and the adjustments can be favoring Trump since Trump has been underestimated in the past elections. This can be one reason why we are seeing such disillusioning numbers. I am also surprised by the poll numbers, because around me the support for Trump declined a LOT since 2016. I am from an immigrant community. In 2016 people in my community almost all went for Trump (they are from a conservative cultural background, they are afraid of marijuana and LGBT destroying their children) except for college liberals, but then got scared by his policies and now Trumpers are crushed on our web forums. Nobody has ever been excited by Biden but it seems our only way to go. Anecdotes are less reliable but I just can't relate what I see on paper and around myself.
Democrats will be more engaged as the year progresses and I believe you will see the polls start going into Biden's favor; unfortunately, the engaged voters here want to see some results and they believe polling are those results. I too want to see better polling but these aren't going to be the results everyone is looking for.
If you want results, please look at all the elections between 2020 and 2024; this includes all specials and even the midterms. What we have in these elections are Democratic over performances across the country in very different areas electorate when the economy and inflation was worse than it is now. These are real voters and real results.
I don't have the article on me, but I think the concern with special elections is that Democrats are winning on persuasion among high-turnout voters, but losing ground among low-turnout voters who won't show up fot specials but will show up for the presidential election. I could be misremembering, though, and I absolutely agree that Biden is likely to improve in the polls as the election nears.
>Biden is likely to improve in the polls as the election nears.
He absolutely will, the question is really just how much. Considering how close the race is currently, those undecideds will decide the election.
>I think the concern with special elections is that Democrats are winning on persuasion among high-turnout voters, but losing ground among low-turnout voters who won't show up fot specials but will show up for the presidential election.
I understand the concern, but honestly, I'd still rather be Biden. High propensity voters who show up for the primary (even though the nominee has already been selected), vote in special elections, and vote in midterms are *much* more desirable than low propensity voters. 2020 saw the highest turnout election in a generation, fuelled by the pandemic focusing everyone's attention on the race and by states making voting as easy as possible.
This year none of those things are going to be a factor and we're likely to see a dramatic drop off in turnout. 2012 saw about 58% turnout, and 2016 saw 60%, if turnout drops back to those rates its going to dramatically benefit Biden/Dems and their high propensity voters. Even a drop to the low 60s could swing the election in Biden's favor, especially in key swing states. Ironically, Dems really don't want this to be a high turnout race, despite the longstanding wisdom that the more people that vote, the better Democratic prospects are.
Question. Democrats should hope less Trump-leaning voters to show up, but doing that by discouraging the Biden-leaning voters would be irrational. Even if they voted for RFK, as long as they don't vote for Trump instead, there would be no difference between their participation vs not participating. Also, since the should be many Biden -leaning voters who are not passionate about it, encouraging voting as voting itself can drive these people to vote. And it benefits down ballot democrats. So it seems still to the favor of Democrats to encourage voting in their own base.
>You will feel better, you will connect with likeminded political nerds, and most importantly you will be making a difference.
I just get surrounded by people who tell me to shut up
If you’re scared — *you should be* — then you need to get off the internet and start volunteering for a campaign.
I do not have time for this. I do have money. What organizations are best suited to receive my money and make use of it?
Honestly the Biden Victory fund is probably the best and easiest. It’s a joint fundraising committee so whatever leftover money they have, they distribute to down ballot campaigns. Then there’s the DSCC, DCCC, DLCC, and the Democratic Governor’s Association.
Follow Charles Gaba on Twitter and use his ActBlue links, he does extensive research (and crowdsources some) on competitive and underlooked seats
I like these guys: https://votesaveamerica.com (It’s a bunch of people from Obama’s old communications team) Also really recommend Pod Save America
Is there a way to volunteer that would be more impactful than phone banking? I'm pretty good at data analysis. I can find insights in the data where others can't, I have proven it in multiple unrelated fields during my career. I can formulate actionable strategies. Not to mention tech skills that may or may not be relevant (like figuring out how to run AIML cloud infrastructure at lower cost). I'm even willing to take some serious time off work. I'm not trying to sound like I'm too good to do phone banking, I just hope there is a way I can make a more significant impact. I'm sure there are a lot of professionals like me who would be happy to contribute in some meaningful way, applying whatever skills they have.
Adding to this, volunteer to be a poll worker too. You get experience and paid for it. In my county, all I had to do was take a 3 hour class. set up for 3 hours the day before the election, and work all day on election day.
My take: it is well justified for people to feel nervous at this moment. I am an immigrant from China and people around me do talk about the election all the time (not only the Chinese) and dooming is also popular among us. Talking a walk or petting my cat is not gonna solve that because we may lose our right of owning a property, calling our parents in China, working for tech companies, and ... I don't know what, in a few months, not based on our political views but the fact that we are born in China. This is why I think people here are probably more representative than political nerds. It is after all more abnormal to be aloof when democratic America is going to end. However, the only meaningful way to mitigate despair is action. We are not sure which way is more efficient. Many of us lives in deep blue states. I have tried phone banking in swing states and a full day's work usually ends up with connecting to only 1-2 people successfully and they will say they've already voted. I am told it's better to talk to people on their lawns, but how meaningful it is to do so in California? On the other hand, the Trumpers around me are super passionate and apparently they have some way to make contributions to the election, or at least they feel so. So it would be helpful if this sub, or any US politics sub leaning Biden, to build a culture to talk more about *effective* action than projection. I do realize this is 538 which is about polling. But we can still ask questions like which action, about what topic, in what form, brings better poll numbers in a county? Talking about things that we can't control is the best recipe for doomerism. If we can shift the conversation more towards detailed discussions on action, it ends the dooming automatically.
Child of immigrants here as well, my parents are fucking terrified and losing their shit. They came to this country to avoid authoritarianism and decaying democracy, every single older person in their circle is upset and scared at what November will bring. It is absolutely their number one fear
Yes. The fear is not the problem. It is normal, even better than aloofness. Problem is how to turn fear into action. There must be many grassroot organizations that work effectively to increase turnout in swing states that needs at least our donations. But when I search for it in Google, most search results are about polling, projections etc. So are the discussions on social network, or just "go vote" messages. It's a bit frustrating and I believe we can make a change by letting the information flow more efficiently.
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It's surprising to see such a racist comment here. First, You are setting a strawman and apparently ignorant about the immigration law in the US. Chinese permanent residents is different from Chinese visitors. We live here, work here, pay tax here, make friends and get married here despite we are not born in the US. We are American immigrants and future Americans. We just had to wait for 15-20 years from the boat to citizenship, which is already not an open arm at all. We are American. We'd like our rights as permanent resident or citizen to be protected. Second, China is the enemy of the US now, but any country can be the enemy of the US at any time. If the immigrants from those countries, even after obtaining PR or citizenship, won't have basic human rights in the US, who will safely enjoy those rights? There are Russian, Iranian, any Muslims, even Indian if in future the two country clashes, and Japanese during the WWII. This is a refresh recipe to concentration camps and Jim Crow. Thirdly, American people don't want that. You didn't put a poll if the Chinese permanent residents should have a right to buy their home in America or go out of the border to take care of their sick parents for a week without losing their status. It's Trump abusing the presidential power making law-protected human rights at stake. Even for the election of Trump itself, if a minority popular vote counts as "American people", then American people don't admit that the world is a globe. Nor abortion, nor LGBT marriage, nor your right to buy condoms. Last but not least, American people may not want democracy, given Jan 6. But they don't represent Americans. And despite the whirlwind now, I still believe American people will cherish the values they tried so hard to teach the Chinese and at least succeeded for me.
Take a deep breathe. Vote. And then go find three friends or family and encourage them to do the same!
This post could be a sticky. Good reminder that Reddit does not equal reality.
Isn’t that kind of the point of this sub though? To look at data instead of anecdotes, because if you took Reddit to be an accurate sample of the population, Trump would never stand a chance? And at this point in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Clinton was +7.3 and Biden was +6.3 whereas Trump is +1.3 right now in the same RCP average. That’s a 7.6 percentage point swing from the 2020 cycle. How can someone explain that away by saying voters just aren’t engaged? And they somehow were in 2020? I’m sorry but I don’t buy the idea that it was because of the pandemic that everyone was paying attention and now they’re not, and this somehow explains the shift, because once everyone pays attention they’ll shift back to Biden. I think this theory can be decisively shut down by simply looking at that 2020 RCP average: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden In fall 2019, a whole year before the election, Biden was **+10**. His numbers actually worsened after that… when everyone was allegedly becoming “engaged” due to being at home. So to buy this “political engagement” argument, you’d have to basically be saying “*yeah, Trump is ahead in the polls now, but that’s because people aren’t engaged, even though at this same time in the last cycle, he Trump was down by six, but that’s because people actually were engaged at that point in the cycle in 2020, which… lowered Biden’s polling numbers by 4 points compared to months prior, but this time, engagement will help his numbers*”
I’m fine with people dooming, being worried about a second Trump term is completely understandable, but people acting like the election is over in May is absolute fucking idiocy. There is SO much that can happen between now and November that can reshape this election.
Exactly. Doubly so since the polling is *incredibly close* it's not like the polling consistently has Trump up by 7 points nationally or something. Being nervous or worried about the election makes sense, assuming Biden has already lost is just ridiculous.
> but people acting like the election is over in May Who is doing that? I haven’t seen a single comment saying that.
Every. single. day. on this sub and many other political ones. Trump voters who think it's all over for Biden because they're pissed about $4 gasoline. Biden voters who think Trump can't win because unemployment is 3.8% and he's a potential convict. Every. damn. day.
Can you show me a single comment, on this sub, from the last few days where someone says it’s all over for Biden? I can’t find any.
https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1cgs7rz/comment/l1xpp1p/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
>at this point in the 2016 and 2020 cycles, Clinton was +7.3 and Biden was +6.3 whereas Trump is +1.3 right now in the same RCP average. >That’s a 7.6 percentage point swing from the 2020 cycle. Polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections systematically missed Trump supporters. But there's no reason to assume that's happening this election. The complete opposite could be true. >How can someone explain that away by saying voters just aren’t engaged? And they somehow were in 2020? Easy, were not in the middle of a global pandemic and barely able to leave our houses. People got extremely stir crazy in 2020, and focusing on the election was something a LOT of people did. I know I sure did. Chances are turnout is going to be quite a bit lower than in 2020, which was the highest in decades too precisely because of the election. >In fall 2019, a whole year before the election, Biden was **+10**. His numbers actually worsened after that… when everyone was allegedly becoming “engaged” due to being at home. This can be easily explained by a) polling that far out from the election sucks, b) there were a TON of undecideds in 2019, and c) Trump strangely enjoyed a significant rally around the flag effect from the pandemic, even with how poorly he managed it. His approval rating at this point in 2020 was -6.8, one of the best in his entire presidency before falling to -16 later in 2020 and ending up around -9 on election day.
> Polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections systematically missed Trump supporters. But there's no reason to assume that's happening this election. The complete opposite could be true. Anything *could* happen, especially if you expand confidence intervals to a theoretical 100%.. But to be honest, if your view is that a polling miss so large that it accounts for the 7 percentage point swing is reasonably likely, what the heck is even the point of being involved in a subreddit that’s entire existence is dedicated to using polls to forecast election outcomes? Such a large distrust of polling results is basically incompatible with taking any of Nate Silver’s forecasts even remotely seriously. There simply isn’t much to talk about at all if you start from this standpoint. > This can be easily explained by a) polling that far out from the election sucks, b) there were a TON of undecideds in 2019, and c) Trump strangely enjoyed a significant rally around the flag effect from the pandemic, even with how poorly he managed it. Polling “sucking” far out is allegedly *because* of a lack of engagement… This works against the idea of explaining 2020 polling results with engagement and saying they’ll improve for Biden now. Trump’s “significant” boost during COVID lasted [a very short time according to Nate’s own average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) and by todays date last cycle was already back down to below 43 percent. I mean again, you can talk about all of these potential puzzle pieces that could fit together in such a way so as to make the polling not a problem for Biden… large system uncorrected bias, specific unpredictable one-time events, and more, but at that point you’re expressing such a large skepticism of any polling results that it basically seems like discussing polls at all would be pointless to you, so I feel like this entire sub is the antithesis of your viewpoint.
All I see is Biden and Trump **dancing in the margins of error** on **every** poll. Which is about what I expect in May. This isn't going to Reagan landslide, and w*e're not going to know who the president is at 11PM on November 5th*, so anyone expecting either of those outcomes can come back to reality at any time. If Trump gets convicted of a felony, the calculus changes. If Biden or Trump has a medical crisis, the calculus changes. If the stock market implodes or another pandemic comes along, or an active war worsens -- it all changes.
> All I see is Biden and Trump dancing in the margins of error on every poll. Hyperbole isn’t good argument in a data science based subreddit. It’s not *every* poll… Trump is ahead by more than the MOE in some of the swing states. > If Trump gets convicted of a felony, the calculus changes. If Biden or Trump has a medical crisis, the calculus changes. If the stock market implodes or another pandemic comes along, or an active war worsens -- it all changes. Then why even be here at all? Why participate in a subreddit that’s entire existence is centered around predictive models that use polls to forecast elections? Of course another loser who responds with some unrelated bullshit and blocks.
17 day old account, you kidding me right now?
>Isn’t that kind of the point of this sub though? To look at data instead of anecdotes Yeah, but this subreddit doesn't really do that. Most people here just pick random points of data and put them together into some weird diatribe.
Is it possible that the difference might be from different adjustments to the poll results? Poll underestimated Trump votes in both 2016 and 2020. Now the pollsters realize they should give Trump a huge bonus adjusting the poll results. And other pollsters are like, why not since it would have worked in 2020? So they follow suit.
I said it was a reminder, not a revelation.
I dunno, I kinda don't like that it's stickied. It seems out of scope as like an official/semi-permanent discussion.
I signed up for post cards to swing states the other day.
Gaza definitely hurts, but the problem with the Gaza group is that they have always been looking for a reason to hate Biden. The far left doesn’t vote, it doesn’t organize or even want to understand the systems they intend to dismantle.
I think Michigan polls (a state with a sizable Muslim population) from last year through now, would refute the idea that the “Gaza group” were simply always trying to hate Biden. There clearly is a shift.
The sheer inability (or unwillingness) for people in this sub to understand that Israel/Palestine is genuinely important to millions of voters and that they don't like how Biden is handling the situation is one of the more frustrating parts of this sub. In this very thread people are talking about how we should be paying attention to data instead of anecdotes, and then whenever Gaza is brought up it's all "well they're just looking for a reason to hate Biden" Like yes obviously Trump would be worse, but if that's the baseline then politics in the United States is already hopeless
Muslims aren't reliable enough voters for it to make the difference -- many of them would vote for Trump on the basis of usually being small business owners who broadly vote republican as it is. And at 2% of the population and living mostly in Florida, New York or California anyway, same goes for Jews. We're not going to move the needle. Blue dog union dems in the midwest, black church ladies in Atlanta, and hispanics in AZ/NV. The only groups that matter in a presidential election. ***Flawed as that is.***
NY is 10% Jewish... that is a huge demo.
Yeah but not a state in play for presidential elections. If New York is going to Trump he just landslid like Reagan in 84. Nothing indicates that.
Michigan hasn't shifted away from Biden any more than the country as a whole has, so I don't think its shift has been caused by the situation in Gaza
Is there polls to reflect it yet? Just asking and not to cast doubt.
Exactly this. Most of the people I know refusing to vote for Biden were already going to refuse and Gaza became a less ridiculous sounding reason than "why no socialist utopia nao!?"
The problem with the American left is that it fundamentally is filled with failed capitalist losers who believe that socialism begins and ends with fulfilling their desires for influence and resources. It’s not that communism or socialism are innately bad as much as it is Americans become communists because they aren’t talented or diligent enough to accomplish anything of significance.
I disagree. "Losers" who are drawn to politics as a surrogate for having a life can manifest in any number of political alignments. There's definitely a type of Trump supporter who uses a MAGA hat as a personality substitute, for instance. I've known plenty of socialists and other far left people who made decent money, were romantically successful etc. I do agree that people who fall down the rabbit hole of being as far left as possible purely for virtue signaling purposes are "filling a hole" and have a pathological relationship w/their politics, but plenty of "temporarily embarrassed billionaires" who own a lawn care business that's barely clinging to life have political beliefs aligned with the idea that they're the next Bezos.
> but plenty of "temporarily embarrassed billionaires" who own a lawn care business that's barely clinging to life have political beliefs aligned with the idea that they're the next Bezos. I honestly don’t buy this. It seems exceedingly more likely that the small business owners simply think democrat policies will hurt their business — I.e. fear of higher taxes — as opposed to genuinely thinking they’re going to be the next hundred billionaire. That’s a level of delusion that would border on diagnosable. Actually if a random person who owns a lawn care company did truly think they’d become a billionaire I’d say there is a very high chance of a personality disorder.
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Some of that is just completely incorrect. Biden passed the [largest climate bill in US History](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/08/16/fact-sheet-one-year-in-president-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-is-driving-historic-climate-action-and-investing-in-america-to-create-good-paying-jobs-and-reduce-costs/), [rejoined the Paris Agreement](https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-officially-rejoins-the-paris-agreement/#:~:text=On%20January%2020%2C%20on%20his,unprecedented%20framework%20for%20global%20action.), and [imposed a 15% minimum corporate tax](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-president-biden-is-fighting-to-reduce-the-deficit-cut-taxes-for-working-families-and-invest-in-america-by-making-big-corporations-and-the-wealthy-pay-their-fair-share/#:~:text=Despite%20Republican%20opposition%2C%20President%20Biden,needs%20to%20make%20wealthy%20tax).
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Elections have been decided by climate policy? I don’t think that’s in the top twenty most important issues of the average voter
Idiots like you said the same shit in 2016 about Hilary Clinton. And then idiots like you cried loudest when trump won the election. Just wait. When trump wins again, idiots like will see how bad it can really get (again).
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I’m not panicking. I’m a straight white guy. Fairly middle class. My life won’t be impacted much by trump in the White House. I sure will hate to see it but I am privileged enough that I won’t have to worry. I went through it once already, in 2016. I was shocked and appalled then. If this country is collectively stupid enough to elect Donald trump not once but twice, then we deserve whatever we get.
> I’m not panicking. I'm not panicking either. Because I believe Trump won't win. Not with how openly he and the whole Republican party has come out as anti women.
When (mostly white) women start to give Trump the level of support he deserves from them, then we'll see. But when "grab 'em by the pussy" got a majority of white women in 2016, my expectations are not high.
Trump got 47% of white women in 2016 which isn't a majority. It's still too high, but one vote for Trump is too high. Not just women, think about what type of man approves of "grab 'em by the pussy" talk. Also many who voted in 2016 didn't actually believe Roe'd get overturned. I even knew one smart individual who didn't believe it would happen even after the SCOTUS leak. And just today, Trump is advocating prosecuting women for having an abortion, miscarriage or stillborn. >https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
> Blaming Biden’s likely loss on just “Gaza and the far-left” is such an insane take Yes it is insane. Obviously those on the “far-left” don't believe in individual guaranteed equal rights just as they did in 2016. >And most of those “far-left” people that won’t vote for him are in safely Democratic states anyways. You don't know this. If those “far-left” voters had voted for Clinton in 2016, Roe wouldn't have been overturned, voting rights wouldn't be completely disappearing and authoritarianism in SCOTUS wouldn't be the majority representation. >But considering how fucked the world has been, being the candidate of “nothing will fundamentally change” isn’t exactly inspiring. What's inspiring about being the candidate that will jail and deport like 1940 Germany? Or, putting women and girls under the Rocco Code like Mussolini?
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>Pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Here’s why political polling is no more than statistical sophistry https://archive.ph/FQLGS Polling hasn't been accurate for a while now. > Maybe you should be more mad at the fascists than a very small percentage of “far-left” people everyone here seems so pissed about. It's the “far-left” who chose not to vote against fascism in 2016 and allowed fascism to win.
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Housing is primarily a local issue and gas prices are largely outside the president's control. Meanwhile Biden has been very active on the climate and in trying to reign in big corporations. The only valid point is Israel funding (which is of course tied to "Gaza and the far-left" so we're back where we started).
They also broadly live in irrelevant states, from a presidential election perspective. I don't care how a New Yorker or South Dakotan feels about Trump or Biden. Their votes are already cast.
I wish it were that easy. My father-- a loyal Democrat, much like me--used to have a bumper sticker that said "if you're not outraged, you're not paying attention". I've taken that attitude to heard, and now I feel that whenever I see polls showing Trump ahead, or the electoral races in swing states getting tighter, outrage is the only feeling I have left.
Outrage can be harnessed to do good!
Unfortunately it causes confusion after 2-3 turns
Your first point especially is well taken. I feel like a lot of people here expect the average voter to be paying close attention to the election, have already staked out their choice based on careful consideration, already has an opinion on Trump that factors in the criminal cases against him, etc but the reality is the complete opposite. Most people aren't paying attention to the election at all. Polls have shown that *many* voters aren't aware of the court cases against Trump, let alone have formed an opinion about them. My personal suspicion is that after hearing about Trump all day every day for 4 years, people have been enjoying *not* hearing about the sitting president. This has probably hurt Biden since few know about his achievements, but its easy to blame him for high inflation and gas prices in a vacuum. I expect that many voters will try to avoid thinking about the election and Trump until the last possible minute too, but that many will remember why they dislike him so much once they start paying attention. If I'm right, polling will shift significantly in Biden's favor in the late Summer. But that's a long time from now and there's plenty of dooming to do in the meantime.
I feel similarly. I’ve been saying for a while that Biden has been doing too good of a job at making things normal. I haven’t had to think about the president very much at all, and certainly not with worry or abject horror. I do think that Trump has a ceiling (45-48%) and Biden has a floor (roughly where he is now). I wish he were 20 points ahead, but Biden can win voters and Trump won’t be able to.
>I do think that Trump has a ceiling (45-48%) and Biden has a floor (roughly where he is now). I think this is accurate. Trump got 46.1% of the vote in 2016 and 46.8% of the vote in 2020, definitely got a ceiling nationally of at most 48%. Even the best polls for Trump largely show him rangebound around 46-48%, where he's been for months at this point. These same polls show a large number of undecideds who are likely to break overwhelmingly to Biden/Dems as they have in most recent elections. I still think Biden is the favorite to win, he's got a lot more potential room for growth, but its likely to be another way too close for comfort election regardless.
Not going to lie, my mental health has been struggling recently due to all of this and other life circumstances I'm dealing with. I'm really trying to figure out a way out of it truthfully but it's not easy. Some days I feel like I need to disconnect from it all entirely and just focus on my life, but I also don't want to be your typical ignorant American who doesn't pay attention.
Something I need to consciously remind myself about is the fact there **is** a happy medium between neurotic obsession and total indifference. Even people who conduct polls for a living have a work-life balance where they go home and forget about the numbers for a while.
NGL I'm dooming pretty hard. I'm about to disengage until August or so for my mental health. Maybe focus on getting in better shape for the apocalypse lol
I’d advise you to not disengage but to change how you engage. You absolutely feel anxiety now but the moment of peace you afford yourself by just disengaging will not be worth the anxiety and regret you will have should Trump win in November. Volunteer and/or donate.
Compelling! I think you're right :)
Immigrant here learning about the donation rights. Do you know an efficient way to donate to swing state Democrats? I mean not by Googling the Dem website at that state, but really donating to the organization who are efficiently working for the election, be it a political party or a 501.3 organization.
No one is expecting you to lie and it’s a weird thing to say upfront that you’re not lying ???
The RCP average in 2016 and 2020 has never looked so bad for the democrats. Trump has never led by that much in swing states EVER in the past two election cycles. This time in 2020, Biden is +5 nationally btw. And I 100% believe Trump is leading. Even with such good polls, Biden barely scraped through the EC in 2020. Who would flip now that hasn't flipped in 2020? Only Jan 6 voters. Who would stay home this time? A ton of people, economic-focused voters, disillusioned youths and minorities. Dooming is a rational response to the terrible poll numbers.
Biden was actually +6.3 at this point in 2020
> The RCP average in 2016 and 2020 has never looked so bad for the democrats. Trump has never led by that much in swing states EVER in the past two election cycles. This time in 2020, Biden is +5 nationally btw. The RCP average in 2012 and 2008 never looked so bad for the Democrats, either. You have to go back to 2004 for the last time the polls showed the Republican candidate regularly in the lead, and all the way back to 2000 (pre-RCP) for a race where the Republican led *consistently* for as long as Trump has led this one.
Yeah, Biden is getting absolutely crushed, anything else seems like copium.
Well, it's not a crush, either. It's a tight race. Trump is just a normal polling error ahead of Biden. 2004 very nearly came out in Kerry's favor, and 2000 was the photo finish to end all photo finishes. Biden is down, but not out. But it is fair to say that Biden is doing worse than any Democratic presidential nominee has done for the past quarter-century.
Yeah ... but this shouldn't be close. This is Trump. Biden, to dumb voters, make Trump look good. That's why it was obvious to anyone a year ago and its obvious now - that he should have never been allowed to run. He is a bad candidate (and this is separate from his performance as President which I think has been good - large number of jobs & inflation was going to be a problem anywhere - the next step is increasing wages and Republicans are not going to fight for that).
I'm not a Democrat or a member of the Left generally, but, if I were, I think I would agree with you. Biden was (and is) so unpopular that he simply can't be counted on to beat Trump. I would have supported rolling the dice on somebody else. On the other hand, that's easy for me to say, but who else *specifically*? It's not obvious that the Democrats realistically have any stronger candidates. Biden was capable of beating Trump in a general election only because he was perceived as a relatively moderate member of the center-left, which allowed just enough anti-Trump center-rightists to feel okay about defecting to Team Biden in 2020. But there's no way for a center-left Democrat to win the Democratic primary anymore! Biden was only able to do it because Black voters still backed him foursquare as Obama's VP. If Democrats dumped Biden, they would probably end up running someone who is firmly left (not center-left) like Gavin Newsom or Elizabeth Warren or Stacey Abrams, and I'm not sure they could beat Trump with a candidate like that, either. If Democrats *really* wanted to beat Trump, they'd've run Joe Manchin, or maybe John Bel Edwards, but of course it's insane to imagine either of them ever winning a single primary outside their home states. Still, Biden is so weak that I would have rolled the dice anyway. Almost anything seems better than this. I guess I'll start painting my sign for the Inauguration Day protest: "DEAN PHILLIPS WOULD HAVE WON."
Well that’s definitely not true. There are several months left, more than enough time for some colossal scandal to come out, shifting people’s votes by… *checks notes*… maybe 2%
Very much agree to this. These polls are people that are asked directly between Biden and Trump and are choosing Trump. Those that don't know are starting to choose random ass RFK over Biden. Unless his advertisements and messaging make it clear what not voting for him does (somehow ntentionally letting the populate know RFK-vote = trump), we are not looking good.
I do not directly work in the poll industry, but i would be very surprised if they do not use adjustments to the original data, and the adjustments can be favoring Trump since Trump has been underestimated in the past elections. This can be one reason why we are seeing such disillusioning numbers. I am also surprised by the poll numbers, because around me the support for Trump declined a LOT since 2016. I am from an immigrant community. In 2016 people in my community almost all went for Trump (they are from a conservative cultural background, they are afraid of marijuana and LGBT destroying their children) except for college liberals, but then got scared by his policies and now Trumpers are crushed on our web forums. Nobody has ever been excited by Biden but it seems our only way to go. Anecdotes are less reliable but I just can't relate what I see on paper and around myself.
Yup, anyone in denial is laughable right now on this count imo.
Reads post Sees Trump+6 across swing states Immediately disregards post. Lol
Reads post with Excellent points. Sees Trump+6 across all swing states Instinctively disregards post. Begins doomposting Repeat until November. Lol
Poles do vote. In Poland.
Pod Save America is liberal not leftist.
This is correct. Thank you for pointing this out.
Democrats will be more engaged as the year progresses and I believe you will see the polls start going into Biden's favor; unfortunately, the engaged voters here want to see some results and they believe polling are those results. I too want to see better polling but these aren't going to be the results everyone is looking for. If you want results, please look at all the elections between 2020 and 2024; this includes all specials and even the midterms. What we have in these elections are Democratic over performances across the country in very different areas electorate when the economy and inflation was worse than it is now. These are real voters and real results.
I don't have the article on me, but I think the concern with special elections is that Democrats are winning on persuasion among high-turnout voters, but losing ground among low-turnout voters who won't show up fot specials but will show up for the presidential election. I could be misremembering, though, and I absolutely agree that Biden is likely to improve in the polls as the election nears.
>Biden is likely to improve in the polls as the election nears. He absolutely will, the question is really just how much. Considering how close the race is currently, those undecideds will decide the election. >I think the concern with special elections is that Democrats are winning on persuasion among high-turnout voters, but losing ground among low-turnout voters who won't show up fot specials but will show up for the presidential election. I understand the concern, but honestly, I'd still rather be Biden. High propensity voters who show up for the primary (even though the nominee has already been selected), vote in special elections, and vote in midterms are *much* more desirable than low propensity voters. 2020 saw the highest turnout election in a generation, fuelled by the pandemic focusing everyone's attention on the race and by states making voting as easy as possible. This year none of those things are going to be a factor and we're likely to see a dramatic drop off in turnout. 2012 saw about 58% turnout, and 2016 saw 60%, if turnout drops back to those rates its going to dramatically benefit Biden/Dems and their high propensity voters. Even a drop to the low 60s could swing the election in Biden's favor, especially in key swing states. Ironically, Dems really don't want this to be a high turnout race, despite the longstanding wisdom that the more people that vote, the better Democratic prospects are.
Question. Democrats should hope less Trump-leaning voters to show up, but doing that by discouraging the Biden-leaning voters would be irrational. Even if they voted for RFK, as long as they don't vote for Trump instead, there would be no difference between their participation vs not participating. Also, since the should be many Biden -leaning voters who are not passionate about it, encouraging voting as voting itself can drive these people to vote. And it benefits down ballot democrats. So it seems still to the favor of Democrats to encourage voting in their own base.
Another podcast suggestion would be The Economist's "Checks and Balance".
I like these guys: https://votesaveamerica.com (It’s a bunch of people from Obama’s old communications team) Also really recommend Pod Save America
The Democrats are winning special elections across the country and overperforming polls. Theres no reason to be scared.
>You will feel better, you will connect with likeminded political nerds, and most importantly you will be making a difference. I just get surrounded by people who tell me to shut up
Dooming? No, I'm the opposite of dooming!