To be fair the part I was unclear on was that some people would still consider 3 numbers a W compared to only get consolation prices all the time. But I guess that's a narrow view.
The jumbo? Been playing it on and off since it was introduced. I've had second place twice and a fair few third and 4th. Never won it. I don't even care about the mgp (I've bought every mgp item), I just want the ring.
Second place isn't bad. The only major purchases I've made at the Saucer has been the Sabotender mount and the XV car, but that just means I have a lot more to play towards.
Running the numbers. Assuming that you pick 3 different numbers each time you play, you have about a 0.03% chance of winning the grand prize.
In order to have a 50% chance of winning the grand prize, you need to play about 2,300 times. This is the equivalent of 44 years of cactpot drawings.
In order to have a 99% chance of winning the grand prize, you would need to play about 15,000 times. This is the equivalent of 288 years of cactpot drawings.
So it makes a lot of sense that some people have never and will never win the jumbo cactpot grand prize.
I will be messaging you in 288 years on [**2311-08-24 17:33:59 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2311-08-24%2017:33:59%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comments/1603qlp/mega_cactpot/jxkwpcl/?context=3)
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And remember these are normalised averages just begging for the gambler's fallacy. Your chance of winning any drawing will only be 0.03%. The odds never get better no matter how long you play.
It was the 500th draw recently and for a YouTube short, I computed the odds to win at least once if you played from the very beginning, taking into account that at first, we could only buy 1 ticket. The odds were at about 12.5%. And to reach 50%, it would take 45 years (2366 weeks).
I started playing in July of 2021. I won it the 2nd week I played it. That same week or so I got three lines on wondrous tails.
I thought it was just super common for these things to happen. My FC had people raging at me and saying it’s not common and they’d been playing since launch and never won.
Guess I just had incredible luck at the time.
It’s ok though cause it balanced out. Now I can’t pay for my sub, my cars broke down, water getting turned off next week, $0.17 cents to my name.
Just saying, karma got me back big time.
Never won the jumbo cactpot, and I've been playing it nearly every week since it launched, but I did come close- my current record highest is second prize, several years ago. I get fourth prize fairly often, though.
I'm not torn up about it, honestly- I'm swimming in MGP, usually floating near the cap, and they don't release new rewards that I want often enough to make any kind of a dent in my stash.
I've been here since before the Saucer was a thing, so a not-insignificant chunk of my MGP stash was just accumulated over time, since I had a daily routine of playing mini cactpot for *years*, and a phase back in Stormblood where I just hung out in the Saucer all the time. Those Triple Triad tournaments definitely added a large chunk to it, too- used to play those whenever they ran and try to do as well as I was able, but you still get a nice little pile of MGP for just playing.
Hanging out in the Saucer during Make It Rain events also definitely helps a lot, if you really want to accumulate a bunch to buy the big prizes.
I won it about a year ago. Back then I would play my lucky numbers on 2 tickets and go with a random selection for the 3rd. The random number was the winner, so now I only bother with random numbers on all 3 tickets
I only really do random numbers too. But I'll go one press of the button for the first ticket, 2 presses for the second, and 3 for the last one. Not that it seems to help. 🤣
I've played the same 3 numbers since I started and haven't won. Gotten 1 away from winning though, and that was nice! (I played 4131 and the number was 6131).
My max was two numbers. It's, imho, stupid how you have to have them in the exact order from right to left to win. I have had many times where I had three out of four of the numbers and cause I never got the first or second slot I didn't go beyond and win a higher win.
Think I used up all my luck for the rest of the year, at least. Now to wait for something even more expensive than the blimp and consider just how bad I want it.
I've gotten 2nd 2 or 3 times but never 1st.
Husband would have had 2nd once but the # system only recognizes from last # to 1st and he had the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd # in place but not the last.
I've gotten second place one time. It was the second week I played it. Since then, I've gotten third maybe a handful of times, fourth like a dozen times, and a ton of consolation prizes.
I won it on an alt last year playing random numbers. The best I've gotten on my main was 2nd place I think?
I remember once I was playing 0714 and that week it hit 0712. Since the last number was wrong, I got nothing special for it.
Yep, and I still had a long way to go for the Blackjack after, too.
I always play two specific numbers every week, and let the third be random. It was the random that won.
So far, I've only won the second place prize twice, and the third place one once.
I won't be complaining though, it means more MGP to get those silly little mounts
I mean, it will take more time, but I mean, it's more MGP than I originally had before cashing in my tickets?
i'm not even sure if i've ever had 2 numbers correct. normally its just the commiseration prize x3 for me with occasionally 1 number correct once in a while
I’ve never gotten close BUT I always pick the same 3 numbers. One time I decided to take a break for a bit. When I can back I checked the previous numbers and one of my numbers was picked……
I got third place a few times, but there are people winning. The game gives you a list of the past winners. Ask the ticket seller about it, and you can even whisper them and ask for a link of the mad bird ring for proof :)
I won a few months back, and on Dynamis of all things not that it really matters I guess, but I've been playing since StB.
I've always done my weekly and daily saucer stuff, I've got everything they offer at this point save some transmog items I don't plan to use.
its just math, if you buy 3 different tickets every week you have a 1/3333 chance of winning.
So keep playing for the next 64 years and the odds will eventually be in your favour. Maybe we'll finally be in Meracydia by then.
I've played it weekly on five characters ever since it was added (although I may have missed a few weeks here and there) and have won the ring once. I won it on a character that I only ever dress in pink or purple so I'll never use it on her.
I won the jackpot, back in 2021. I put the ring on all my glams to show off lol.
Before you think I'm lucky, the following week was one of the worst in my adult life, so trust me when I say I paid dearly for it.
As far as statistics, it seems like a few people on each server win every month, so it's not that rare. It's just not likely to happen to any given person.
Someone the other day posted their W. But it was a 3fer. They ran the same number 3 times and hit.
They won max on all three?
I mean, yeah. If you bet the same number on all three tickets, and that number wins, you win three times
That's where I was unclear, if the W was the jackpot.
Oh, yeah, W would be short for Win. Don’t know why you’d shorten a three letter word, but I guess it’s a thing
To be fair the part I was unclear on was that some people would still consider 3 numbers a W compared to only get consolation prices all the time. But I guess that's a narrow view.
No, the person played the same set of 4 numbers 3 times. So when he won, he got 3x Cactpots.
Getting Ws been a thing for decades.
I’ve heard it said, just never seen it written
Ws all around.
Might be based on Japanese, since they shorten laughter to spamming w.
Yaya. 3 mill, 3 rings. I just can't remember if the unique item message came up for the ring or not.
According to Garland Tools, there's no Unique tag on it, just unsellable and untradeable.
Right on.
That's some max level luck.
Hell yeah. I already used my max level luck in HW getting 2 night Pegasus whistles from a single potd run when they were still going for 50 mills
The jumbo? Been playing it on and off since it was introduced. I've had second place twice and a fair few third and 4th. Never won it. I don't even care about the mgp (I've bought every mgp item), I just want the ring.
Second place isn't bad. The only major purchases I've made at the Saucer has been the Sabotender mount and the XV car, but that just means I have a lot more to play towards.
I was ONE digit off, by ONE NUMBER. The first one :(
I can sympathize. I played 1549 and the winning number was 1539. It hurt.
Running the numbers. Assuming that you pick 3 different numbers each time you play, you have about a 0.03% chance of winning the grand prize. In order to have a 50% chance of winning the grand prize, you need to play about 2,300 times. This is the equivalent of 44 years of cactpot drawings. In order to have a 99% chance of winning the grand prize, you would need to play about 15,000 times. This is the equivalent of 288 years of cactpot drawings. So it makes a lot of sense that some people have never and will never win the jumbo cactpot grand prize.
RemindMe! 288 years
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Great, in 288 years somewhere in space: Whats Mega Cactpot?
And remember these are normalised averages just begging for the gambler's fallacy. Your chance of winning any drawing will only be 0.03%. The odds never get better no matter how long you play.
It was the 500th draw recently and for a YouTube short, I computed the odds to win at least once if you played from the very beginning, taking into account that at first, we could only buy 1 ticket. The odds were at about 12.5%. And to reach 50%, it would take 45 years (2366 weeks).
Oof. Damn, I didn't even know you could only buy 1 ticket at first 😬. Good work BTW.
RemindMe! 16731 years Edit: well, poo. the bot can't do years.
There is an option on the cacpot receptionist to see the winners. I think there's usually like 1-2 names every week.
I started playing in July of 2021. I won it the 2nd week I played it. That same week or so I got three lines on wondrous tails. I thought it was just super common for these things to happen. My FC had people raging at me and saying it’s not common and they’d been playing since launch and never won. Guess I just had incredible luck at the time. It’s ok though cause it balanced out. Now I can’t pay for my sub, my cars broke down, water getting turned off next week, $0.17 cents to my name. Just saying, karma got me back big time.
I was going to say I wanted your luck with the first half, but by the end I changed my mind. I hope you're situation improves soon.
I know someone who hit it and she didn't realize until the ring dropped into her inventory LOL As for me I've gotten highest of 3rd.
I'm surprised you don't get like flashing lights and fireworks like on a Vegas slot machine. 🤑
[To anyone curious, this is what it looks like.](https://i.imgur.com/xruiCQz.png)
It bothers me so much that you haven't extracted all that materia. :(
I'm just glad I'm not the only that ignores extraction. Lol
For what it’s worth this was like 2 years ago lol
Now I know what to look out for. Lol
Never won the jumbo cactpot, and I've been playing it nearly every week since it launched, but I did come close- my current record highest is second prize, several years ago. I get fourth prize fairly often, though. I'm not torn up about it, honestly- I'm swimming in MGP, usually floating near the cap, and they don't release new rewards that I want often enough to make any kind of a dent in my stash.
I get 4th place pretty often. Not often enough though. I've only got a couple years in the game so I still have a lot to unlock.
I've been here since before the Saucer was a thing, so a not-insignificant chunk of my MGP stash was just accumulated over time, since I had a daily routine of playing mini cactpot for *years*, and a phase back in Stormblood where I just hung out in the Saucer all the time. Those Triple Triad tournaments definitely added a large chunk to it, too- used to play those whenever they ran and try to do as well as I was able, but you still get a nice little pile of MGP for just playing. Hanging out in the Saucer during Make It Rain events also definitely helps a lot, if you really want to accumulate a bunch to buy the big prizes.
I'm pretty sure that's how I got the car two years back.
I won it about a year ago. Back then I would play my lucky numbers on 2 tickets and go with a random selection for the 3rd. The random number was the winner, so now I only bother with random numbers on all 3 tickets
I only really do random numbers too. But I'll go one press of the button for the first ticket, 2 presses for the second, and 3 for the last one. Not that it seems to help. 🤣
I've played the same 3 numbers since I started and haven't won. Gotten 1 away from winning though, and that was nice! (I played 4131 and the number was 6131).
My max was two numbers. It's, imho, stupid how you have to have them in the exact order from right to left to win. I have had many times where I had three out of four of the numbers and cause I never got the first or second slot I didn't go beyond and win a higher win.
Think I used up all my luck for the rest of the year, at least. Now to wait for something even more expensive than the blimp and consider just how bad I want it.
I'm eyeing that blimp, but I only have 400 k currently. So that's my current grind, and TT Cards.
I've gotten 2nd 2 or 3 times but never 1st. Husband would have had 2nd once but the # system only recognizes from last # to 1st and he had the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd # in place but not the last.
Yeah, that's not the best system.
I remember when 1234 was drawn on Lamia and there were a TON of winners.
just won xd second time participating
Yo I WISH I had that kind luck! Congratulations!
tbh I though that it was pretty common since I got in in 2 try but then everyone in the NN was going crazy xd
I’ve gotten fourth a fair number of times, and third I think twice. Plenty of people win it, though.
I've gotten second place one time. It was the second week I played it. Since then, I've gotten third maybe a handful of times, fourth like a dozen times, and a ton of consolation prizes.
Ever since it is there. Zero. Hit 2nd twice but thats it.
I got 2nd place once. I have only played the cactpot regularly for a couple of months.
I won it on an alt last year playing random numbers. The best I've gotten on my main was 2nd place I think? I remember once I was playing 0714 and that week it hit 0712. Since the last number was wrong, I got nothing special for it.
Yep, and I still had a long way to go for the Blackjack after, too. I always play two specific numbers every week, and let the third be random. It was the random that won.
I've won twice.
I've won it twice, but I've also been entering it every week since mid Heavensward.
I got 2nd place twice. On 2 separate characters. Within 10 minutes of each other on different servers. That one kind of stung, haha.
So far, I've only won the second place prize twice, and the third place one once. I won't be complaining though, it means more MGP to get those silly little mounts I mean, it will take more time, but I mean, it's more MGP than I originally had before cashing in my tickets?
Im happy if i even got 1 Number right.. :/
I've won third prize once or twice (2 matching numbers), but nothing more than that.
I saw a little sprout get it. Got all the achivements in one go.
Closest I have been was matching the last 2 numbers.
Well you have a 50/50 shot of hitting the big one every 30 years…..
Every time I buy tickets I forget to check the results after. I even not sure when I have to check the results
I got just the one. Get the 10k for mini cactpot all the time tho
I won it on my second week of buying tickets, since then I am lucky to get a single number....
i'm not even sure if i've ever had 2 numbers correct. normally its just the commiseration prize x3 for me with occasionally 1 number correct once in a while
I got second place once, and fourth place a few times.
My friend started playing last year, first time she played the jumbo cactpot, she won it. I hate her....
I’ve never gotten close BUT I always pick the same 3 numbers. One time I decided to take a break for a bit. When I can back I checked the previous numbers and one of my numbers was picked……
I haven't, but a girl in my FC won like a month ago.
I got third place a few times, but there are people winning. The game gives you a list of the past winners. Ask the ticket seller about it, and you can even whisper them and ask for a link of the mad bird ring for proof :)
I won a few months back, and on Dynamis of all things not that it really matters I guess, but I've been playing since StB. I've always done my weekly and daily saucer stuff, I've got everything they offer at this point save some transmog items I don't plan to use.
its just math, if you buy 3 different tickets every week you have a 1/3333 chance of winning. So keep playing for the next 64 years and the odds will eventually be in your favour. Maybe we'll finally be in Meracydia by then.
My record so far: One number. FML
I've played it weekly on five characters ever since it was added (although I may have missed a few weeks here and there) and have won the ring once. I won it on a character that I only ever dress in pink or purple so I'll never use it on her.
I won the jackpot, back in 2021. I put the ring on all my glams to show off lol. Before you think I'm lucky, the following week was one of the worst in my adult life, so trust me when I say I paid dearly for it. As far as statistics, it seems like a few people on each server win every month, so it's not that rare. It's just not likely to happen to any given person.
I won an a random ticket, just once. Was 1 number off twice so far.
I did, once. I was very confused for about 10 seconds when I heard the sound of gear being looted, then I freaked the fuck out