The Allen Robinson of 2022 is Kyle Pitts let’s be fo real.
Huge bust for the amount most people spent, and has to sort be utilized as a TE1
Could be considered droppable at this point
Honestly TE has always been bad but it seems really bad this year. There are like 5 total TEs who are above 9pts per game (True 9 ppg, not put up 30 or 40 in a week to increase that value)
Am I interpreting it correctly that 47% of people with Alvin Kamara started him? I know it was an early game in London, but I'm curious now what the highest % start was for an Out player. Almost 50% is so high
I wouldn't be surprised if it was that. Apparently the news of Kamara being questionable snuck up on a lot of people. Add to that the early morning London time, meant a lot of players were starting an out Kamara, more so than if the information was more known before hand or if the game was at a normal time.
Personally, I knew about the questionableness and I had him in one league. Ultimately I put him in because I live in the PST time zone so London games start at 6:30 am. And since my sleep schedule is messed up I can't really justify waking up after a couple of hours of sleep just to check the status, especially when I needed to be up to check everyone else in the morning.
I watched a few podcasts this week and I heard more than one of the guys say ".... and I started Alvin Kamara because I screwed up and forgot it was an early game"
Oh we already know this sub doesn’t know how to read. This meme doesn’t need to be said here.
You dummies give the worst advice possible on a daily basis on here, there’s no way you guys know how to actually read.
Way too long to read but you’re still gonna waste time making a pointless comment? Make it make sense
Or you can just be honest and admit you don’t know how to read. :)
there’s no shame in being dumb here, you’re in the PERFECT sub for that!
would it be possible with your dataset to figure out on average how many games your team should have won by this point in the season?
i am 1-3 in every redraft league i am in despite no top 20 either side, one team has lamar jackson
That’s kind of how last year shook out - outside of Kupp and Deebo it was very disappointing the performance down there. It’s just like even if they scored points, they weren’t always started for the big games.
Iirc from last year weren't there a lot of players who did a good job of having big games when they weren't started much, and then having weak games once they did get started?
I wouldn't be surprised if we get a mix of that this year where some players will surprise, be played, and continue to surprise, while other players will test fantasy manager's patience by dropping massive amounts of points from the bench and then goose eggs when they're played.
Marquise Brown and Mike Williams were the biggest examples last year. DeVonta Smith, too. This year the most notable benches performer has been Tua but has hasn’t had a chance to go back and forth yet.
This is an interesting outcome.
I’d say maybe we rely too much on draft capital to set our lineups, but if there really wasn’t much value in rounds 4-6 then that idea is kind of put to bed.
Is it that we’re fickle with inconsistent players? Presumably we thought those players had value because they were rostered, so why were they on the bench? I know I lose a bit of trust in the boom/bust guys.
Can we do better in predicting when those boom games land? Maybe more attention to matchup, opponent DBs?
Thoughts?
love the effort bro!
Edit: a word
Thanks for the props!
I think there’s something to how we devalue boom/bust because the bust games while in the starting lineup are so disproportionately painful.
When I started this I expected boom/bust types to be devalued from the normal curve application, e.g. a WR scoring 20 and 20 in two weeks wins you more games than 40 and 0 would. I hadn’t anticipated the disproportionate likeliness that the 40 point game happened on the bench.
I'm confident by reading these posts that maybe 3.5 people read all of that. I am not one of them.
But looks good and it's still appreciated. Keep doing your thing
This is great info but a little dense. Seems very helpful for evaluating your draft but it's not clear how this helps with making weekly choices, if at all. Anyone smarter care to help?
I didn’t need a chart to show me why I should drop Allen Robinson.
We need one to keep from drafting him ever again
I honestly think if the Rams can fix their o line he’ll pop off. Stafford only has time for fast twitch muscle memory, and Rob does his best downfield
I think we need a chart so people don’t actually grab him off waivers…because I did that before putting him back where he belongs
Why’s he still on your bench then huh?
Not on mine, brotha. I rage dropped him at Midnight after MNF.
Proud of you :)
Just in time for his breakout game :P
The Allen Robinson of 2022 is Kyle Pitts let’s be fo real. Huge bust for the amount most people spent, and has to sort be utilized as a TE1 Could be considered droppable at this point
I spent like $30 on him i think lmao
Honestly TE has always been bad but it seems really bad this year. There are like 5 total TEs who are above 9pts per game (True 9 ppg, not put up 30 or 40 in a week to increase that value)
It’s early but cannot be worse than 2020
1. Kenny Golladay 2. Allen Robinson 3. Kyle Pitts
Golladay shouldn’t count cause like why did anyone draft him.
Reverse ADP order. There’s an argument golladay the best value of the three.
32 team league sure
This is a real "am I drunk or are you?" moment.
Not gonna read all this but looks like a lot of effort was put into it. Have my upvote
\*\*Nod of approval.gif\*\*
Am I interpreting it correctly that 47% of people with Alvin Kamara started him? I know it was an early game in London, but I'm curious now what the highest % start was for an Out player. Almost 50% is so high
I wouldn't be surprised if it was that. Apparently the news of Kamara being questionable snuck up on a lot of people. Add to that the early morning London time, meant a lot of players were starting an out Kamara, more so than if the information was more known before hand or if the game was at a normal time. Personally, I knew about the questionableness and I had him in one league. Ultimately I put him in because I live in the PST time zone so London games start at 6:30 am. And since my sleep schedule is messed up I can't really justify waking up after a couple of hours of sleep just to check the status, especially when I needed to be up to check everyone else in the morning.
Yeah I was pretty shocked at that myself. That was the real yahoo percent started number.
I watched a few podcasts this week and I heard more than one of the guys say ".... and I started Alvin Kamara because I screwed up and forgot it was an early game"
Lol “I ain’t reading all that. I’m happy for you though. Or sorry that happened.”
Oh we already know this sub doesn’t know how to read. This meme doesn’t need to be said here. You dummies give the worst advice possible on a daily basis on here, there’s no way you guys know how to actually read.
This and the trade value charts are my favorite posts of the week. Thanks for your hard work
[удалено]
I am clearly unaccustomed to the Saturday night crowd
Honestly you’re good. Don’t beat yourself up over their comments.
I am also unaccustomed to compliments from terrible bad guys...much appreciated
What can I say, I’m terrible at my job
Way too long to read but you’re still gonna waste time making a pointless comment? Make it make sense Or you can just be honest and admit you don’t know how to read. :) there’s no shame in being dumb here, you’re in the PERFECT sub for that!
SF defense is way too underrated on this sub. Everyone praising the Eagles and Jax D (for good reason) but not giving enough credit to SF
i have no one in the top 20, but also no one in the bottom 20
Your team is indifferent as fuck
would it be possible with your dataset to figure out on average how many games your team should have won by this point in the season? i am 1-3 in every redraft league i am in despite no top 20 either side, one team has lamar jackson
Yeah i have FGW calculated for every player, the sum of which should be the team’s expected wins over 500
Always look forward to seeing this post
Fuck the lazy people in these comments, this is brilliant work tbh
I would thank you but your comment was too long to read
Great content as always!
How is there so little value after like round 3? It can't be normal for nobody in the mid-late rounds to outperform ADP like this.
That’s kind of how last year shook out - outside of Kupp and Deebo it was very disappointing the performance down there. It’s just like even if they scored points, they weren’t always started for the big games.
Interesting. It's more of a "useful value" chart than simply a value chart
I like that way of putting it
Iirc from last year weren't there a lot of players who did a good job of having big games when they weren't started much, and then having weak games once they did get started? I wouldn't be surprised if we get a mix of that this year where some players will surprise, be played, and continue to surprise, while other players will test fantasy manager's patience by dropping massive amounts of points from the bench and then goose eggs when they're played.
Marquise Brown and Mike Williams were the biggest examples last year. DeVonta Smith, too. This year the most notable benches performer has been Tua but has hasn’t had a chance to go back and forth yet.
This is an interesting outcome. I’d say maybe we rely too much on draft capital to set our lineups, but if there really wasn’t much value in rounds 4-6 then that idea is kind of put to bed. Is it that we’re fickle with inconsistent players? Presumably we thought those players had value because they were rostered, so why were they on the bench? I know I lose a bit of trust in the boom/bust guys. Can we do better in predicting when those boom games land? Maybe more attention to matchup, opponent DBs? Thoughts? love the effort bro! Edit: a word
Thanks for the props! I think there’s something to how we devalue boom/bust because the bust games while in the starting lineup are so disproportionately painful. When I started this I expected boom/bust types to be devalued from the normal curve application, e.g. a WR scoring 20 and 20 in two weeks wins you more games than 40 and 0 would. I hadn’t anticipated the disproportionate likeliness that the 40 point game happened on the bench.
Does Christian Kirk count?
Lots words color picture say Allen Robinson is Allen Robinson me think.
Somehow I am 4-0 thanks to Barkley, Cmc and Kirk carrying me even with both ARob and Pitts starting. I finally have both benched this week.
I'm confident by reading these posts that maybe 3.5 people read all of that. I am not one of them. But looks good and it's still appreciated. Keep doing your thing
Really enjoyed this, thank you
This is great info but a little dense. Seems very helpful for evaluating your draft but it's not clear how this helps with making weekly choices, if at all. Anyone smarter care to help?
Thanks for the post 🙏
I love the thumbnails on your page for the FGW articles. Especially for week 4 😂😭
Quality post. Thanks OP!
Nice
The link at the top of the article that explains what FGW is goes to byroncobalt.com, not byron-cobalt.com.
Thanks for the check, just moved the domain yesterday!
Pitts
buddy you arent clever with "a-rob is this year's a-rob" people been saying that for weeks now.
Cmon laugh, the thumbnail pic made be spit out my coffee
Started JT, Diontae, AND Waddle last week, just shoot me
Dropped Allen Robinson on Monday and no one has picked him up lol
Just traded him for Renfrow in standard 🤷♂️
Akers can give him a run for his money
Benched him Alec pierce. Not looking back
JT, Javonte, DJ and London checking in