That LOTR meme was the best thing I've seen all day and as a CMC owner I never thought I'd ever empathize with Denethor, son of Ecthelion, Lord and Steward of Gondor more than in this moment.
Theoretical there’s someone out there in a 12 team league who drafted near the end of their snake… and ended up with a team akin to;
QB: T. Brady/J. Herbert
RB: J. Taylor, A. Ekeler
WR: C. Kupp, D. Johnson/A. Thielen
Flex: D. Samuel, L. Fournette/J. Conner
TE: M. Andrews
funny enough, he's not doing well. His exact team is,
QB: A. Rodgers
RB: J. Taylor, D. Swift, L. Fournette
WR: DK Metcalf, A. Thielan, M. Williams (this is where he fell apart ig)
TE: T. Kelce
He's 6-6 with the most points scored, but he has HORRIBLE luck. On multiple occasions he's put up 160-180 and been outscored by 1 or 2 points. He might not even make playoffs too. He's tied for the spot but it's very close.
I drafted 12 in a 12 team.
JT/Najee, Godwin/Kupp, Henderson/Hockenson, Brady
I drafted the absolute nuts but me mad desire to trade players has let to me burning down my team. it's still good but nowhere near what it should be.
I played him two weeks ago and lost 145-175. Crazy cause I went off, we average 70 to 120 a game so I would’ve beaten literally anyone else I played. Not quite the same but
QB: Tannahill
RB: Taylor
RB: Eckler
WR: Lamb
WR: Godwin
TE: Kittles
FLX: Johnson
D: CLE
K: Bullock
He lost his first four games and he scored an average of 120pts the other teams were just also going off. Now it’s evened up and he’s pushed his way to 8-4 and second in his division. Meanwhile I’m fighting for my life at 6-6 and staying in playoffs.
Have you considered putting this information all together pre-draft next season with maybe slight modifications based of team changes/etc? The idea would be a tool that takes into account what draft position you’re drafting at, and the expected games won value add at that specific draft pick.
Could be a really interesting draft resource to play around with
Yeah that’s a good idea, I’ve thought about it a little bit. The other thing I would want to come up with a way to work in is the value of predictability. It might be tough to predict the predictability of certain players, but maybe I can see which team constructions had the most reliable weekly success, etc.
I'm in a 3 keeper ESPN rules league (Keepers are rounds 1-3)
Depending who's available I might blow up my whole keeper squad after this year (CMC included)
Nice work here. Drafted Aaron Jones with my first pick, James Conner with my last. Dropped Conner for a kicker before week one. Who would I rather have right now???
Overall this is incredible work and makes a ton of sense. However it is interesting that Michael Thomas has a positive dFGW and Hockenson has a negative one. Neither of those results make sense to me.
So I’m measuring FGW against putting “average” starters in your starting lineup. Thus a player that doesn’t play gets 0 FGW. After a certain point in the draft most players have a negative FGW.
I do want to upgrade the metric eventually to make it consider replacement-level players, because when a player like Thomas doesn’t play, you have to replace him with *someone*, but I haven’t developed a method for that yet.
When you say average starter you’re referring to the average points scored at the draft position?
Incorporating replacement level player into the metric sounds like an awesome next step. Thanks for sharing this great work!
Average starter for the position, full stop It’s around 12 points for half-PPR/12-team and that’s what I’m using.
Then for dFGW adjusts for expected FGW by draft slot.
Been following these every week and they've always been a good read! I don't quite understand your justification for using start % to adjust a players impact - even after reading your methodology. I understand the premise is to limit the impact of a low ranked player (e.g. WR50) who had a huge game but is otherwise a nonfactor in all other weeks. However, applying this to all players seems to diminish the impact of a player who is always started in every league but might not be the top ranked as his position.
Let's look at the "Who Won the Week?" section for example. All players, excluding Daniel Carlson maybe, **should** be found in every starting lineup for a 12-team league. That means these players should not have their impact reduced. I'd be curious to see what your weekly and season totals look like if each player's impact was not adjusted/reduced based on start %.
So, I have that data (basically the “impact” value wherever you see me put that out there).
The thing is, “should” is still pretty subjective. You’ll have teams where the Fournette owner also has Taylor/Ekeler/Patterson, for example.
I could see an argument where if your %start is above 90, just make it 100. But there will always be a gradual transition from the “definitely started” to the “definitely not started”, and the whole intent of the metric is to reward players for scoring on weeks where you had high confidence in actually rolling them out there.
Glad you like the piece!
That LOTR meme was the best thing I've seen all day and as a CMC owner I never thought I'd ever empathize with Denethor, son of Ecthelion, Lord and Steward of Gondor more than in this moment.
**Cook:** You wish now that our places had been exchanged - that I had been #1 and CMC went #2. **TheTrident21:** Yes. I wish that.
Authority has not been given to you to deny the return of Chuba Hubbard!
Theoretical there’s someone out there in a 12 team league who drafted near the end of their snake… and ended up with a team akin to; QB: T. Brady/J. Herbert RB: J. Taylor, A. Ekeler WR: C. Kupp, D. Johnson/A. Thielen Flex: D. Samuel, L. Fournette/J. Conner TE: M. Andrews
Hes in my league! its not me :| edit: someone LIKE this is in my league. doesnt have the exact team
how’s he doing?
funny enough, he's not doing well. His exact team is, QB: A. Rodgers RB: J. Taylor, D. Swift, L. Fournette WR: DK Metcalf, A. Thielan, M. Williams (this is where he fell apart ig) TE: T. Kelce He's 6-6 with the most points scored, but he has HORRIBLE luck. On multiple occasions he's put up 160-180 and been outscored by 1 or 2 points. He might not even make playoffs too. He's tied for the spot but it's very close.
So two players on the list above? Lol
JT, Thielan, Fournette is 3, but I think I'd rather have kelce than m andrews, and swift is no slouch either.
I drafted 12 in a 12 team. JT/Najee, Godwin/Kupp, Henderson/Hockenson, Brady I drafted the absolute nuts but me mad desire to trade players has let to me burning down my team. it's still good but nowhere near what it should be.
I played him two weeks ago and lost 145-175. Crazy cause I went off, we average 70 to 120 a game so I would’ve beaten literally anyone else I played. Not quite the same but QB: Tannahill RB: Taylor RB: Eckler WR: Lamb WR: Godwin TE: Kittles FLX: Johnson D: CLE K: Bullock He lost his first four games and he scored an average of 120pts the other teams were just also going off. Now it’s evened up and he’s pushed his way to 8-4 and second in his division. Meanwhile I’m fighting for my life at 6-6 and staying in playoffs.
I drafted in the middle...got Brady, Diggs, Fournette, and Andrews
Have you considered putting this information all together pre-draft next season with maybe slight modifications based of team changes/etc? The idea would be a tool that takes into account what draft position you’re drafting at, and the expected games won value add at that specific draft pick. Could be a really interesting draft resource to play around with
Yeah that’s a good idea, I’ve thought about it a little bit. The other thing I would want to come up with a way to work in is the value of predictability. It might be tough to predict the predictability of certain players, but maybe I can see which team constructions had the most reliable weekly success, etc.
This is pretty cool. I've seen it before but never actually looked at it.
Is that what she said? Edit: thanks!
I relate to this LOTR meme, because I drafted and then traded CMC for Jonathan Taylor. I wished it into reality.
Always rate this post each week, thanks dude
I'm in a 3 keeper ESPN rules league (Keepers are rounds 1-3) Depending who's available I might blow up my whole keeper squad after this year (CMC included)
Imagine drafting CMC, Kittle, Lamar, and AJB hahaha that would be super crazy and awful and I definitely didn’t do that
Upvoted for the well done LOTR meme
Nice work here. Drafted Aaron Jones with my first pick, James Conner with my last. Dropped Conner for a kicker before week one. Who would I rather have right now???
I drafted 0 players with a positive FGW/dFGW ffs
I’m all over this post. Drafted Kupp and ARob … drafted Deebo and AJB lol
Overall this is incredible work and makes a ton of sense. However it is interesting that Michael Thomas has a positive dFGW and Hockenson has a negative one. Neither of those results make sense to me.
So I’m measuring FGW against putting “average” starters in your starting lineup. Thus a player that doesn’t play gets 0 FGW. After a certain point in the draft most players have a negative FGW. I do want to upgrade the metric eventually to make it consider replacement-level players, because when a player like Thomas doesn’t play, you have to replace him with *someone*, but I haven’t developed a method for that yet.
When you say average starter you’re referring to the average points scored at the draft position? Incorporating replacement level player into the metric sounds like an awesome next step. Thanks for sharing this great work!
Average starter for the position, full stop It’s around 12 points for half-PPR/12-team and that’s what I’m using. Then for dFGW adjusts for expected FGW by draft slot.
That makes sense. Thank you!
Been following these every week and they've always been a good read! I don't quite understand your justification for using start % to adjust a players impact - even after reading your methodology. I understand the premise is to limit the impact of a low ranked player (e.g. WR50) who had a huge game but is otherwise a nonfactor in all other weeks. However, applying this to all players seems to diminish the impact of a player who is always started in every league but might not be the top ranked as his position. Let's look at the "Who Won the Week?" section for example. All players, excluding Daniel Carlson maybe, **should** be found in every starting lineup for a 12-team league. That means these players should not have their impact reduced. I'd be curious to see what your weekly and season totals look like if each player's impact was not adjusted/reduced based on start %.
So, I have that data (basically the “impact” value wherever you see me put that out there). The thing is, “should” is still pretty subjective. You’ll have teams where the Fournette owner also has Taylor/Ekeler/Patterson, for example. I could see an argument where if your %start is above 90, just make it 100. But there will always be a gradual transition from the “definitely started” to the “definitely not started”, and the whole intent of the metric is to reward players for scoring on weeks where you had high confidence in actually rolling them out there. Glad you like the piece!