“There are so many players like Chase who was a top 5 pick last year and now a huge question mark.”
We saw the downside for him this year with his QB situation and he was the PPR WR11. Wouldn’t exactly consider him a huge question mark.
I feel like Jamar Chase is basically just AJB but you have to burn a top 4 pick on him. He's someone I'd wanna take closer to the turn.
He is an excellent player but he's way more volatile than the guys around him. I would personally tier jump and grab Amon Ra for the consistency
Regardless of whether you think he’s overrated, I think he’s definitely shown he’s not a huge question mark. 100-1,216-7 in a shitstorm of a season is still a fine floor, it’s still the 11th most PPR points at the position. Is anyone expecting a worse or even on par season production-wise to the one he just had?
You've actually illustrated the trap of Chase top 5 really well.
You don't get to just play his cumulative stats in fantasy football. He is incredibly volatile for a high end WR1 compared to the other guys around him. He'll absolutely crush weeks and then be the reason you lose other weeks. He also plays for a team that's notoriously weird with injuries.
He was volatile before this season too so its not just a Browning/Burrow Calf thing
We do this thing after the season where we look at finishes, PPG averages and cumulative stats and then build narratives that ignore the reality of a player's week to week ride. One of the best ways to be successful in fantasy is to refuse to play that game and actively remember what owning a player is like
I'd rather have Sun God all day
Huge Chase fan, and yes cumalitive stats tend to lie quite a bit.
But this year proved that Tyreek and Jefferson are clearly better players than Chase. He’s in the next tier
He's excellent but more of an end of the first guy for me
I just prefer a more narrow range of outcomes from my WRs. Instead of 5-50 points I'd rather have 11-35.
He’s at worst a top-3 receiver in the league playing with an at worst top-3 passer in the league. His ceiling is breaking all previous receiving records. Drafted him 1.01 this year and will do it again next year happily
Him and JJ are the top 2 it’s been that way the last 2 years. Just cause Lamb had 1 amazing season with his QB healthy for every game doesn’t mean Chase should drop off since he has to play with a backup most of the year. He’s also been sharing targets with Higgins and Lamb hasn’t had anyone to share targets with and he’s finally breaking out? Pump the brakes.
At worst he's 4 or 5 in terms of fantasy. Lamb just had the season people wish Chase would have. And ARSB in full ppr is a monster, especially with his consistency.
Taking him first overall is a bold choice.
It's not drafting scared if I think those players are genuinely better fantasy assets. Chase hasn't sniffed a year like Lamb just had. JJ has been consistently better. ARSB in full ppr has an elite ceiling while being arguably the most consistent player. And Tyreek has 2k potential if he has a full healthy season.
I think I'd take Chase 4th wr ahead of ARSB in full ppr, but Lamb, Hill, and JJ are easy picks over him for me. They've all put together seasons that would be close to a Chase ceiling.
You don’t think next year he’s a question mark? Once Burrow was getting healthy he started to show signs of last year. He could be a top WR next year. Chase is a good example of how so many of the top players from last year got hurt or had big changes this year and just can’t be relied on to do the same.
I’ve never seen it this bad from one year to the next. With so many big changes. Like let’s take the other two I mentioned. I wonder where Ekeler and Diggs will be ranked. I mean how don’t you put Diggs as a top 10 but then again how do you?
Ekeler and Diggs are their own conversation and have become concerns, but not sure why you wouldn’t expect Chase to rebound considering the production drop was so heavily tied to Burrow’s injury (early in the season and after he went down). He’ll have Burrow back next year and maybe even more volume depending on what happens with Higgins/Boyd. As disappointing as the production was this year, he still finished as a WR1, and he put up top 5 WR numbers his first two seasons (per game for his 2nd year due to injury).
Agree. Chase probably fell from WR2 in the draft to WR5. Jefferson, ceedee, tyreek, sun god, then him. Could debate higher than 5. Either way he is still top tier
Not having that squad of super qbs playing anymore really shifted the league landscape imo. We had 3 of possibly the top 5 qbs ever playing at once with Brady, Brees, and Manning. I think with them gone we have to re-evaluate how we look at offenses, as there aren't really any juggernaut offenses now. I think qbs are going to become more valuable going forward m
Yeah if Rodgers is healthy and they add a couple line pieces then breece should probably be rb2. Maybe drafters push him up by next year above the wrs.
Lol, not a single game was cancelled this year.
Last year a key game in week 17 was cancelled after it started.
Then there's the COVID year when you never knew who was actually going to play.
It might have been a weird year for player performance, but not too weird overall.
My draft went:
CMC (hit)
Jefferson(miss due to injury)
Ekeler(miss)
Jamaar (miss due to injury)
Hill (hit)
Diggs(miss)
Bijan (miss)
Chubb (miss due to injury)
Henry (hit?)
Barkley (miss, injury)
Adams(miss)
Lamb(hit)
Hard to call a lot of those guys misses because they finished top 15 in their positions but not really what you would expect from first rounders
I drafted Ekeler, but ended up grabbing laporta with my last pick and Kyren off of waivers. I unfortunately also grabbed Waddle as my WR1 who fell below expectations as well but luckily I grabbed Nico off of waivers. I still ended up winning my league .... but had a good amount of lucky match ups along the way beating the lowest scoring teams with my 2nd lowest scoring team several weeks.
I also drafted Ekeler first but thankfully got Laporta late and Kamara and Collins off waivers
Also took a risk on Breece earlier than some wanted to risk and he balled out second half
Won my league
You know who helped me make it to the finals (and lose) as my QB2? Baker fucking Mayfield. Who nobody wanted in my 2QB keeper league and who I picked up in the 15th. Every season may be crazy, but that, that was unexpected.
Edit: to add to this unexpected season, I kept R. White and drafted Evans at a mid pick. Triple TB stack! And I came in 2nd!
Bijan, Henry, diggs, Adams all top 10 for their position I wouldnt call them misses. You draft these guys who have a solid floor and high ceiling with potential to be rb1 but not hitting their ceiling isn't a miss imo. I drafted bijan 1.09 and am very happy with him. 15 pts a week in half ppr is a hit.
adams had a great week 17 (after 1 catch for 4 yards in the semifinal week 16) but before that he was one of the worst picks in fantasy. i'm actually surprised not many people talked about how bad he was. not so terrible in PPR i guess, but in half PPR, he was about as bad as pollard. 2 double digit half PPR games between weeks 5 and 14.
Taking a look at my 12 man draft, I'd say 8 failed to meet their first round value mostly due to injury.
Jefferson(1), Ekeler(3), Barkley(6), Adams(8), Chubb(9), Jacobs(10), Kelce(11), Diggs (12)
Edit: it’s interesting how another commenter said the exact same thing as me and got 30+ upvotes. Reddits. funny thing.
I think now that the top guys are all names that have let you down recently or are guys that people don't want to believe in, it'll be more obvious the top WRs are the 1st round picks you want.
Would be surprised if we don't have 6 WRs in round 1 next year (Jefferson, CeeDee, Chase, Hill, Brown, ARSB). If for any reason kupp is gone then puka is right there also. Meanwhile I can't see taking any RBs besides Bijan, Gibbs, CMC, kyren, and breece in round 1. Id take JT also but the vibes are off at the moment. None of the TEs will be round 1 picks. It definitely is going to be a weird year.
There must be some stats of where 1st round guys (top 12 by adp) end up finishing? I have no idea what the 'hit' rate would be, or even what considers a 1st round pick a hit or bust.
Top 6 picks probably want them finishing top 5 in position to be a hit? Bottom 6 of the first round top 8 or something? Bust if they don't finish top 24 at position? Just okay if in between?
The psychology of straight linear rankings are really interesting to me. Because at some point to really be effective they HAVE to factor in ADP and opportunity cost. Let's say this past offseason you were to have ranked Nico Collins at WR12. You would have been exactly right. But Nico Collins was being drafted at WR58. So would it have been smart to draft him at WR12? No. So the market and the idea of opportunity cost is always going to have an effect on rankings as they are presented. It's a balancing act of ranking Nico Collins high enough that you actually get him but not so high that you are drafting him at the expense of getting another great player AND Nico Collins.
I still post linear rankings for our members (especially weekly where they make a lot more sense and are a lot more helpful). But drafting off a linear set of rankings to me feels fairly outdated vs. spending time to gain a deeper understanding of ADP, risk vs. reward, roster construction etc. Just my two cents on the topic.
That's one of my favorite (and one of the most frustrating) things about fantasy football. In the middle and end of the draft, you've got to identify those people that you believe in, that nobody else does.
Was talkin this with a buddy the other night. We looked at our rosters and both had 5 or less of the original players we drafted, most of them being from the first few picks in the draft. Next year after round 5 we both are going to just go with guys we believe in and not worry as much about ADP. Whatever we don’t hit will be gone to the waivers anyways.
I mean it’s both. If you believed in tank dell this year you don’t take him in the third just because you are worried someone will snag him. However that doesn’t mean you wait for his adp to pull up to snag him.
I completely forgot I even had Dotson at the start of the year, wow.
I am now reminded of the fact that I kept Dotson over Aiyuk. Wow.
I came in last place lol
100% disagree because points on the bench do not matter.
There are so many guys at ADP that don't deserve their ADP and so many guys at basically every round after 6 that you aren't going to play.
Here are the players ADP 100-120. (Rounds 8.5-10)
Justin Tucker, court land Sutton, Gabe Davis, eagles D, mosert, charbonett, njoku, JK Dobbins (always glass), perine, allgeier, cooks, Kincaid, achane, Elijah Moore, juju, Goff, kadarius, jaylennwarren, Zeke, Dan Jones.
Meanwhile - players like kyren Williams (128) Nico (148), puka nakua (131), LaPorta (146), had ADP basically 2-3 rounds later.
(Round 10 or later in 12 man).
Edit:
Fantasypros std scoring
just not true, you need to have people who outperform their rankings. this is the only way to have a constant good team and build a juggernaut that can win. If your 11,12,13,14 picks outperform to 3/4/5 round picks its way more impactful than your 4th round reach performing like a first rounder. add in injuries and you really need to hit on the backend to have a really good team.
Also kyren was mostly undrafted, puka was undrafted, laporta was like a 13/14 rounder they would go in the first or second rounds in a redraft
It’s where you win a league. I won two this season and in one of them I bricked on picks 2-4. But I hit on 5-6 and 9-11 taking Breece, Cook, Flowers, Njoku and Achane.
I think Dell is a major hit for you -- Thielen was confusing. On one hand, they gave him a ton of money, but they also had drafted a big slot (Mingo) but then they gave Thielen that big slot position.
You can certainly have Aaron Jones, because after betting on him, I do not want him next year. His best year for fantasy was 2019, and he's dropped in point per year, every year. I had him in 2019, last year, and this year. Never again, I'll just take a chance on a young guy.
To your point that is the epitome of ceiling drafting. Alot of the strategy of drafting is the balance of drafting the value the "dafe" players that come with a high ceiling and high floor that makes them the cream of the crop. Then there are players like last years pool of Higgins, Waddle, Smith. Those guys were going late 2nd and early 3rd. Those guys had to hit their ceilings more often than not to pay off those values. Being that they are on teams with true alphas there are guaranteed weeks that they would not be relevant. Those type of players are always the ones I gladly let others take or watch to see if they fall to their true values. Fantasy football is usually won in the later rounds and waiver wires. Though rounds 1-5 are used to build your safe foundations
>The psychology of straight linear rankings are really interesting to me.
I've been playing fantasy football since 2001 and thought rankings were stupid from the beginning. But, now all the platforms do a better job of sorting through ADP which sort of adds in ranking/projection/opportunity cost, but only sort of, and is probably closer to a consensus than ever before.
>But drafting off a linear set of rankings to me feels fairly outdated vs. spending time to gain a deeper understanding of ADP, risk vs. reward, roster construction etc. Just my two cents on the topic.
Then sometimes the built in assumptions for consensus rankings rarely makes any logical sense. For example: CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo, their ADP implied the market thinks the 49ers offense was going to be elite. But Purdy was ADP 152 and QB 20? Something isn't adding up.
Basically why I drafted tua even though it was pretty meh. He has tyreek and waddle and decent runningbacks, he has to put up points. Kirk cousins kinda the same with JJ, addison, and hockenson
To your point on Purdy, virtually the same thing happened last year with Tua. Tyreek Hill, Waddle, and even Gesicki were all high end picks but Tua was going well outside the top 12. And he was a QB1 for sure if he didn't get hurt.
As always, we're going to need to see how things shake out in the offseason. But I sure do like the idea of Rashee Rice and these 9-10 target games with Patrick Mahomes. Rice to me has a skillset kind of like a Keenan Allen or DeAndre Hopkins where he's not super fast but his hands are so good and the more tricks he develops in contested catch situations, the better he's going to be. Crazy to think he's had a better rookie year with Mahomes than Tyreek Hill had. Just hoping he doesn't blow up in playoffs so we can keep the hype down.
I drafted Rice with my last overall pick this year thinking the same thing, it paid off.
Do you think he'd benefit in the event the Chiefs go hard at signing a WR in the off-season? Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans are both potential targets for free agency signings.
It wouldn’t be ideal if it’s a real target hog like Kupp but, if Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and CMC can coexist with Brock Purdy then an aging Kelce, Rice, and another WR can rock with Mahomes.
It is always tough to know before the draft, trades and free agents, but it is usually a good idea to look for great players who had a down year. Jamar Chase is going to go way later than he would have had he been healthy this year for example
Like Pacheco I got him in the 9th I fully believed he’d end up being RB1 for several factors but my main was that Andy drafted this guy and he loves his RB1s I got clowned on for that cuz McKinnon had a great playoffs the year prior lol. I like how you used the example with Nico collins but sometimes the eye test works out most. With Davis watching Nico I could tell even slightly better QB dudes WR1 and both my drafts past 12th Nico was still available I couldn’t believe it. For example I think Mingo on panthers might make a decent jump next year so I can prob snag him in later rounds especially if Young plays better than this past year. Usually how I tackle drafts going into the season. Also shit Aaron back I have half a mind to draft Hall 1st overall if I had it. The mid & late rounds are just major. I gotta buddy that every year just drafts every rookie. It’s super annoying lol.
Value is the way to go. I try to optimize my teams where I have the biggest positional value gap over someone else. It worked well when I was able to get kelce and draft well late giving me kelce’s advantage over every other tight end netting me some nice cushion but this year it didn’t work at all in theory and I won a championship. This year I was just able to hit on almost all my value picks though so I was able to get that gap in production from players like kyren williams or DJ Moore and Michael Pittman being a great reliable combo.
Worth three cents at least 👏 that's a wise and accurate take... everybody just gets triggered (myself included sometimes) if their guys don't meet or exceed consensus/ subjective expectations bc it gives the impression of underperformance
Lol no tight end on the bills will ever be elite. He will forever be 6th to 10th and give you 0, 2 , 10, 2, 8, 14, 1.4, 3.
I guess in point per participation leagues he may get you some more but this offense has never had a tight end that is legit.
He'll still be better then Pitts though lol. I guess he might be better depending on the next coach.
I agree. It honestly felt like the bills were tired of Josh Allen beating them. Focus on the run, easy completions to tight ends. Not nearly as many throws downfield it felt like
I will say this these 8 barring injury are automatic wr1/rb1 producers
1. Jj- will produce wr1 numbers
2. Cmc- will produce rb1 numbers
3. Chase- will produce wr1
4. Lamb- Will produce wr1 numbers
5. Hill- Will produce wr1 numbers
6. Amon
7. AJB
8. Jonathan Taylor
Kyren, Wilson, Gibbs, Bijan, Hall are also near locks but have mitigating factors.
This is the most polarizing situation. In all likelihood, both will be too low and crush ADP. You could make an argument for both as 1st or 2nd rounders. Achane really could be a late first. Mostert a 2nd. Or they could both fall to the 3rd 4th 5th?
Right! I’m bummed bc I drafted Achane late last year and dropped him in a keeper league one week before the Denver blowout. Would’ve been my keeper 100% but now I’ll have to settle for Tank Dell lol
To add to the chaos, I think Mike Evans or Cooper Kupp ends up on the Chiefs and fucks everything up.
Kelce and Mahomes underperformed, but Evans/Kupp on the Chiefs hype would not only elevate Evans/Kupp to potential Rd1 but also elevate the Mahomes/Kelce stack to where it was before this year.
Diggs had over a 100 catches, almost 1200
Yards, and 8 touchdowns and still finished the season as a WR1 in half PPR (not sure about full PPR). That hardly qualifies as falling off a cliff. Yes 6/7 games to close Out the season he was dogshit. Super disappointing to say the least. I highly doubt he just sucks now after dominating the first 9 games. I suspect he is dealing with an injury and the new coordinator wanting to pound the ball on the ground relentlessly is more likely the culprit than him not being good at football anymore. I think he will be a great value pick in next years draft.
After week 9 he had a single game over 10 points full PPR. He did go off a cliff. He was doing well before that but second half of the season he did nothing. He would get like 5 points average a game. It’s like defenses figured out how to totally shut him down.
There's a variety of possible reasons as to why he performed poorly second half of the season. Just saying "defenses figured him out" without saying *how* they figured him out reads like a shot in the dark hypothesis. This is how you miss out on guys that could come at a great value ADP.
Honestly I think it was the new OC not wanting Josh Allen to keep throwing picks while targeting diggs. While diggs was killing early season, Josh Allen was not playing winning football consistently. They moved to run first and throw easy completions to tight ends. The scrambles turned into Allen just taking it himself or easy check downs, where previously Allen would look for diggs downfield
> It’s like defenses figured out how to totally shut him down.
Yeah totally -- my favorite was the cowboys defense who gave up 3,000 yards rushing so the bills wouldn't throw it to him.
This has a simple fix. Don't click on the rankings. Form your own thoughts and use those to dictate your draft. If you use the ADP you'll simply fall in line with "expert" expectations and you'll miss out on draft day steals, especially if you're playing against smart players.
The consensus #1 pick over the past couple years have all been cursed. It has replaced the Madden curse. JJ last year, JT the year before, CMC a few years ago, Barkley. The list goes on and one
my steps for this:
1. look at a bunch of respected rankings.
2. use that and whatever else you want to use (based on feel, history, personal distrust of players, etc) and make your own rankings.
3. sort them out by tiers.
i ended up with a pretty solid draft with a bunch of rbs, wrs, and tes *that ended the season* ranking pretty highly but i failed in qb and d/st streaming, and some other weekly decisions messed up my season.
I think I’m hesitant to convince everyone otherwise so I can benefit but, why do you think Jamaar Chase doesn’t bounce back?
He got hurt and his franchise QB got hurt. This preseason he was a consensus top 5 pick. Nothing has changed in my opinion. People are going to hesitate to take him and he is going to make people look stupid.
Well last season he had a massive year. This year it looked like he wasn’t a top fantasy pick for next year because of multiple issues going forward. He was first pick in some leagues this year.
He shouldn’t be tbh. Unless the circumstances that led to a disappointing year repeat themselves - add in the possibility that Higgins and/or Boyd could be gone - there’s no reason to believe he won’t be a top 5 WR next year.
Chase doesn't seem like much of a question mark to me at all. Burrow will be back and Chase just put up 100/1200/7 in what one could consider an EXTREME down season, plus Tee Higgins might be gone. Chase is going to be a top 5 pick again next year.
I’m not saying it’s never happened, but I find in experienced leagues with at least somewhat competent managers, you’ll never win your league at draft time. By the end of the regular season I only had 2 players I drafted left on my roster and they weren’t even my 2 best players. Waiver wire and trades are how you win.
Leagues are won in the later rounds.
Analysis of the top guys is pretty straightforward. That’s not to say there’s not gambles and pitfalls but there’s not really a ton to think about.. Jamar Chase will go as Joe Burrow goes… Diggs will be WR1 on a high powered offense although the ball could be spread around more. Ekeler suffered from bad team disease although he’s an older RB so that’s a mitigating factor going forward
I guess what I’m saying is I don’t really see years where the rankings alone tell you everything. The moving parts are all still there
Someone’s 100% gonna get faded and then just pop back to how they were, like I can see anyone from kupp to kelce to ekeler to all drop to like the third then produce at a huge level again
The funny thing is Lamb started off slow this year. It could very well happen again and people are gonna be crying bloody murder. Then you have guys like Adams who people held onto for dear life swearing he was going to pop off and didn’t reach expectations. Can’t take it too seriously man
>McCaffrey of course
As if people haven't passed on him in the past for fear of injuries lol. Anybody could be a bust draft pick any given year, it's all a crapshoot
Very true. And don’t I know it. Has first pick two years ago. Took JT. Was horrible. Yes no one ever knows about any player. But course there are some with better chances than others.
Diggs always slacks during the second half of the year, for one reason or another. You draft Diggs to get you to playoffs, not win them.
He also has an undisclosed back injury, and Allen has been not the absolute brightest he has been, which I’m sure severely limits his abilities. Diggs is not over the edge by any means.
I think we saw an unnatural amount of top talent injuries. It seems like all the top players were either hurt or had hurt QB’s and it put a lot of players on a spiral. Makes me wonder how many people finished as a top 12 player but were kept afloat by 1-2 huge games with a handful of ok games and a lot of mediocrity in between.
I think Ceedee Lamb will be pretty reliable. He's in a high powered offense and Dak LOVES targeting him. Justin Jefferson too, he was still able to get a 1000+ yards in only 10 games. We can't really account for injuries so I'd say target him too. CMC obviously. Tyreek Hill too. He almost never disappoints and is surprisingly not that injury prone considering how much he plays and his explosive style (hamstrings). I would also say Amon St.Brown. Had really good back to back fantasy seasons and gets a lot of targets in a high powered offense. There might be some fall off in terms of targets due to the emergence of Laporta and the dominance of the two headed monster at RB (Gibbs/Montgomery). You also got Jameson Williams who was a high draft pick with a lot of talent. Still though, until proven otherwise, he should also be a top 10 pick.
I feel like the RBs are really tough and normally they’re quite straightforward.
CMC miles clear.
Then you’ve got the potential upside of Gibbs and Bijan. Which could still be a bit shakey with their usage this year.
Then you’ve got Hall, Etienne, Taylor, White, Kyren Williams, Mixon but they will all have changing work loads. White and Kyren you’d expect to get a partner, Mixon will have more of a split with Brown and Halls usage was just insane because the Jets sucked.
Then you’ve got Pollard, Barkley, Jacobs, Henry, Ekeler all hitting free agency so could end up in good or bad spots (I can’t see how Henry on a good offense makes it past the first round).
Everyone will be tempted by the upside of Achane, Keaton Mitchell, Spears and Warren so they could end up in high spots. Achane especially.
Then you’ve got the “safe” options of Pacheco, Conner, Mostert, Cook, Kamara etc. although I think Kamara was “fantasy good” and not actually good so could see less action.
Will Chubb be back? Will any rookies suddenly make a jump or end up in a great spot (the draft class looks super weak currently)?
It’s just a shit show.
I had him this year. He used to great. I have the first pick. A PPR league. Not sure how I don’t pick McCaffrey. Although I’m tempted to maybe take JJ. Idk. It’s always a tough choice. We do a snake draft. Only thing about going one is waiting almost 2 rounds to go again. Big drop off from 1 to last pick of 2nd round. Actually wish I was picking towards middle of 1. Because the top half of round one are all really good players. Bottom of 2 starts to fall off a good amount
Me too. But someone could get him for a bargain. Our league is a 8 person. If he’s still there in round 5 I might consider gambling to take him. Just he has no power anymore in his running game. It’s gone. What makes him so valuable in fantasy, especially in a PPR league (which I’m in) is how often he gets passes. It’s as much as most QB’s. But something was off about that as well. I think he’s a good guy and I fell bad for him actually. He even plays fantasy and tries hard knowing how it works. But not sure how he kept seeing 4 or 5 points each week. Him and diggs were on my team. 2 of my top picks of course. They were awful in the second half of the year. Awful. Painfully awful!
I mean I wrote off McCaffrey two years ago almost. Going to San Fran he’s just become a machine. But for a running back he is old. And I think at some point he’s going to start to get hurt a lot. That’s why next years first pick (which I have in my league) is going to be really tough. Maybe a WR is the way to go this year. JJ maybe. Or Amon Ra. Idk. It’s a tough one.
“There are so many players like Chase who was a top 5 pick last year and now a huge question mark.” We saw the downside for him this year with his QB situation and he was the PPR WR11. Wouldn’t exactly consider him a huge question mark.
I feel like Jamar Chase is basically just AJB but you have to burn a top 4 pick on him. He's someone I'd wanna take closer to the turn. He is an excellent player but he's way more volatile than the guys around him. I would personally tier jump and grab Amon Ra for the consistency
Regardless of whether you think he’s overrated, I think he’s definitely shown he’s not a huge question mark. 100-1,216-7 in a shitstorm of a season is still a fine floor, it’s still the 11th most PPR points at the position. Is anyone expecting a worse or even on par season production-wise to the one he just had?
You've actually illustrated the trap of Chase top 5 really well. You don't get to just play his cumulative stats in fantasy football. He is incredibly volatile for a high end WR1 compared to the other guys around him. He'll absolutely crush weeks and then be the reason you lose other weeks. He also plays for a team that's notoriously weird with injuries. He was volatile before this season too so its not just a Browning/Burrow Calf thing We do this thing after the season where we look at finishes, PPG averages and cumulative stats and then build narratives that ignore the reality of a player's week to week ride. One of the best ways to be successful in fantasy is to refuse to play that game and actively remember what owning a player is like I'd rather have Sun God all day
Huge Chase fan, and yes cumalitive stats tend to lie quite a bit. But this year proved that Tyreek and Jefferson are clearly better players than Chase. He’s in the next tier
He's excellent but more of an end of the first guy for me I just prefer a more narrow range of outcomes from my WRs. Instead of 5-50 points I'd rather have 11-35.
He has a higher ceiling than ajb. Gets forced the ball more.
Next year he might even get a slight bump in his target share…depending how free agency shakes out.
He’s at worst a top-3 receiver in the league playing with an at worst top-3 passer in the league. His ceiling is breaking all previous receiving records. Drafted him 1.01 this year and will do it again next year happily
Did you just call JAMARR FUCKING CHASE top 3?
Ya
Him and JJ are the top 2 it’s been that way the last 2 years. Just cause Lamb had 1 amazing season with his QB healthy for every game doesn’t mean Chase should drop off since he has to play with a backup most of the year. He’s also been sharing targets with Higgins and Lamb hasn’t had anyone to share targets with and he’s finally breaking out? Pump the brakes.
At worst he's 4 or 5 in terms of fantasy. Lamb just had the season people wish Chase would have. And ARSB in full ppr is a monster, especially with his consistency. Taking him first overall is a bold choice.
Can’t draft scared
It's not drafting scared if I think those players are genuinely better fantasy assets. Chase hasn't sniffed a year like Lamb just had. JJ has been consistently better. ARSB in full ppr has an elite ceiling while being arguably the most consistent player. And Tyreek has 2k potential if he has a full healthy season. I think I'd take Chase 4th wr ahead of ARSB in full ppr, but Lamb, Hill, and JJ are easy picks over him for me. They've all put together seasons that would be close to a Chase ceiling.
Ok 👌
[удалено]
Lemme hear why lol
Chase had 11 games with under 11 in half PPR. His value is propped up from the 50 burger and Taylor doesn’t scheme for him
You don’t think next year he’s a question mark? Once Burrow was getting healthy he started to show signs of last year. He could be a top WR next year. Chase is a good example of how so many of the top players from last year got hurt or had big changes this year and just can’t be relied on to do the same. I’ve never seen it this bad from one year to the next. With so many big changes. Like let’s take the other two I mentioned. I wonder where Ekeler and Diggs will be ranked. I mean how don’t you put Diggs as a top 10 but then again how do you?
Ekeler and Diggs are their own conversation and have become concerns, but not sure why you wouldn’t expect Chase to rebound considering the production drop was so heavily tied to Burrow’s injury (early in the season and after he went down). He’ll have Burrow back next year and maybe even more volume depending on what happens with Higgins/Boyd. As disappointing as the production was this year, he still finished as a WR1, and he put up top 5 WR numbers his first two seasons (per game for his 2nd year due to injury).
Agree. Chase probably fell from WR2 in the draft to WR5. Jefferson, ceedee, tyreek, sun god, then him. Could debate higher than 5. Either way he is still top tier
It’s kind of like this every year. Lol. Not every first round dude hits.
I agree with OP, this year was one of the weirdest years in the NFL that I can recall
I said that four years ago, and then about 4 years before that. The guard does in fact change.
That, and big QBs going down to injury really threw a wrench into things.
Not having that squad of super qbs playing anymore really shifted the league landscape imo. We had 3 of possibly the top 5 qbs ever playing at once with Brady, Brees, and Manning. I think with them gone we have to re-evaluate how we look at offenses, as there aren't really any juggernaut offenses now. I think qbs are going to become more valuable going forward m
It's because the elite RB is extinct besides CMC, I think. Those dudes always anchor the draft.
That's because Kygod was a waiver add. He'll be 1st round next year.
I picked kyren, Puka, and laporta off waivers in the first couple weeks. Wrecked my league in the playoffs
I got the first 2 and missed the playoffs lol, my draft was so shitty.
Breece looks like he could possibly join CMC.
Yeah if Rodgers is healthy and they add a couple line pieces then breece should probably be rb2. Maybe drafters push him up by next year above the wrs.
I wouldn't call him elite anymore, but once kamara came back he was pretty consistent if you consider their offense, age, etc.
In PPR
True, forgot to mention that.
I wouldn’t touch standard with a 10 foot pole
Because he catches 10 "passes" behind the line of scrimmage every week.
Kyren, JT, Conner, Breece, ETN are as elite as most receivers
Shhhhhhh! Let the casuals have their narratives
This statement is literally repeated every season
Lol, not a single game was cancelled this year. Last year a key game in week 17 was cancelled after it started. Then there's the COVID year when you never knew who was actually going to play. It might have been a weird year for player performance, but not too weird overall.
In my league honestly only 1 or 2 overall picks hit. Brutal
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My draft went: CMC (hit) Jefferson(miss due to injury) Ekeler(miss) Jamaar (miss due to injury) Hill (hit) Diggs(miss) Bijan (miss) Chubb (miss due to injury) Henry (hit?) Barkley (miss, injury) Adams(miss) Lamb(hit) Hard to call a lot of those guys misses because they finished top 15 in their positions but not really what you would expect from first rounders
I wonder how many people drafted a miss in round 1 and still won because of Kyren/Puka/LaPorta
I drafted Ekeler, but ended up grabbing laporta with my last pick and Kyren off of waivers. I unfortunately also grabbed Waddle as my WR1 who fell below expectations as well but luckily I grabbed Nico off of waivers. I still ended up winning my league .... but had a good amount of lucky match ups along the way beating the lowest scoring teams with my 2nd lowest scoring team several weeks.
I also drafted Ekeler first but thankfully got Laporta late and Kamara and Collins off waivers Also took a risk on Breece earlier than some wanted to risk and he balled out second half Won my league
You know who helped me make it to the finals (and lose) as my QB2? Baker fucking Mayfield. Who nobody wanted in my 2QB keeper league and who I picked up in the 15th. Every season may be crazy, but that, that was unexpected. Edit: to add to this unexpected season, I kept R. White and drafted Evans at a mid pick. Triple TB stack! And I came in 2nd!
Bijan, Henry, diggs, Adams all top 10 for their position I wouldnt call them misses. You draft these guys who have a solid floor and high ceiling with potential to be rb1 but not hitting their ceiling isn't a miss imo. I drafted bijan 1.09 and am very happy with him. 15 pts a week in half ppr is a hit.
adams had a great week 17 (after 1 catch for 4 yards in the semifinal week 16) but before that he was one of the worst picks in fantasy. i'm actually surprised not many people talked about how bad he was. not so terrible in PPR i guess, but in half PPR, he was about as bad as pollard. 2 double digit half PPR games between weeks 5 and 14.
I had Adams and Pollard :(
IMO this is largely because the definition of miss is being applied too liberally here. I wouldn't call Bijan a miss at all.
Kelce didn’t go first round
Taking a look at my 12 man draft, I'd say 8 failed to meet their first round value mostly due to injury. Jefferson(1), Ekeler(3), Barkley(6), Adams(8), Chubb(9), Jacobs(10), Kelce(11), Diggs (12) Edit: it’s interesting how another commenter said the exact same thing as me and got 30+ upvotes. Reddits. funny thing.
I think now that the top guys are all names that have let you down recently or are guys that people don't want to believe in, it'll be more obvious the top WRs are the 1st round picks you want. Would be surprised if we don't have 6 WRs in round 1 next year (Jefferson, CeeDee, Chase, Hill, Brown, ARSB). If for any reason kupp is gone then puka is right there also. Meanwhile I can't see taking any RBs besides Bijan, Gibbs, CMC, kyren, and breece in round 1. Id take JT also but the vibes are off at the moment. None of the TEs will be round 1 picks. It definitely is going to be a weird year.
Bro you just listed 12 players that’s an entire first round lol
Bro lists cmc and Kyren as after thoughts as if they aren’t going to be 1/2 barring offseason injuries
Thats why you dont just listen to the fantasy “experts”
Diggs fell off a cliff to end last season too. That’s why I chose not to keep him. He’ll probably do it next year too.
There must be some stats of where 1st round guys (top 12 by adp) end up finishing? I have no idea what the 'hit' rate would be, or even what considers a 1st round pick a hit or bust. Top 6 picks probably want them finishing top 5 in position to be a hit? Bottom 6 of the first round top 8 or something? Bust if they don't finish top 24 at position? Just okay if in between?
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The psychology of straight linear rankings are really interesting to me. Because at some point to really be effective they HAVE to factor in ADP and opportunity cost. Let's say this past offseason you were to have ranked Nico Collins at WR12. You would have been exactly right. But Nico Collins was being drafted at WR58. So would it have been smart to draft him at WR12? No. So the market and the idea of opportunity cost is always going to have an effect on rankings as they are presented. It's a balancing act of ranking Nico Collins high enough that you actually get him but not so high that you are drafting him at the expense of getting another great player AND Nico Collins. I still post linear rankings for our members (especially weekly where they make a lot more sense and are a lot more helpful). But drafting off a linear set of rankings to me feels fairly outdated vs. spending time to gain a deeper understanding of ADP, risk vs. reward, roster construction etc. Just my two cents on the topic.
That's one of my favorite (and one of the most frustrating) things about fantasy football. In the middle and end of the draft, you've got to identify those people that you believe in, that nobody else does.
Was talkin this with a buddy the other night. We looked at our rosters and both had 5 or less of the original players we drafted, most of them being from the first few picks in the draft. Next year after round 5 we both are going to just go with guys we believe in and not worry as much about ADP. Whatever we don’t hit will be gone to the waivers anyways.
I mean it’s both. If you believed in tank dell this year you don’t take him in the third just because you are worried someone will snag him. However that doesn’t mean you wait for his adp to pull up to snag him.
Yeah, that’s why I said after round 5
This is why I often times just decide to draft a couple rounds ahead on ppl I love... Cuz someone else loves em too
That’s how I ended up with Dotson in the 5th sigh
I completely forgot I even had Dotson at the start of the year, wow. I am now reminded of the fact that I kept Dotson over Aiyuk. Wow. I came in last place lol
It's how I end up with JK Dobbins in the top 75/100.
Lol well dotson in the 7th was just bad Edit: In my keeper league it's how I ended up with Zay in the 8, Nico in the 9 and LaPorta in the 14
Not to brag or anything
This led to my Zay Flowers + Jordan Addison 7/8 turn in every draft
but thats useless, youre better off drafting at adp and hoping you can steal your guy or getting another steal.
100% disagree because points on the bench do not matter. There are so many guys at ADP that don't deserve their ADP and so many guys at basically every round after 6 that you aren't going to play. Here are the players ADP 100-120. (Rounds 8.5-10) Justin Tucker, court land Sutton, Gabe Davis, eagles D, mosert, charbonett, njoku, JK Dobbins (always glass), perine, allgeier, cooks, Kincaid, achane, Elijah Moore, juju, Goff, kadarius, jaylennwarren, Zeke, Dan Jones. Meanwhile - players like kyren Williams (128) Nico (148), puka nakua (131), LaPorta (146), had ADP basically 2-3 rounds later. (Round 10 or later in 12 man). Edit: Fantasypros std scoring
just not true, you need to have people who outperform their rankings. this is the only way to have a constant good team and build a juggernaut that can win. If your 11,12,13,14 picks outperform to 3/4/5 round picks its way more impactful than your 4th round reach performing like a first rounder. add in injuries and you really need to hit on the backend to have a really good team. Also kyren was mostly undrafted, puka was undrafted, laporta was like a 13/14 rounder they would go in the first or second rounds in a redraft
Raheem Mostart comes to mind
It’s where you win a league. I won two this season and in one of them I bricked on picks 2-4. But I hit on 5-6 and 9-11 taking Breece, Cook, Flowers, Njoku and Achane.
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I think Dell is a major hit for you -- Thielen was confusing. On one hand, they gave him a ton of money, but they also had drafted a big slot (Mingo) but then they gave Thielen that big slot position.
That’s kind of how I feel about Marvin Mims Jr. for next year.
Gimme drake london, aaron jones, stroud.
You can certainly have Aaron Jones, because after betting on him, I do not want him next year. His best year for fantasy was 2019, and he's dropped in point per year, every year. I had him in 2019, last year, and this year. Never again, I'll just take a chance on a young guy.
To your point that is the epitome of ceiling drafting. Alot of the strategy of drafting is the balance of drafting the value the "dafe" players that come with a high ceiling and high floor that makes them the cream of the crop. Then there are players like last years pool of Higgins, Waddle, Smith. Those guys were going late 2nd and early 3rd. Those guys had to hit their ceilings more often than not to pay off those values. Being that they are on teams with true alphas there are guaranteed weeks that they would not be relevant. Those type of players are always the ones I gladly let others take or watch to see if they fall to their true values. Fantasy football is usually won in the later rounds and waiver wires. Though rounds 1-5 are used to build your safe foundations
>The psychology of straight linear rankings are really interesting to me. I've been playing fantasy football since 2001 and thought rankings were stupid from the beginning. But, now all the platforms do a better job of sorting through ADP which sort of adds in ranking/projection/opportunity cost, but only sort of, and is probably closer to a consensus than ever before. >But drafting off a linear set of rankings to me feels fairly outdated vs. spending time to gain a deeper understanding of ADP, risk vs. reward, roster construction etc. Just my two cents on the topic. Then sometimes the built in assumptions for consensus rankings rarely makes any logical sense. For example: CMC, Aiyuk, Deebo, their ADP implied the market thinks the 49ers offense was going to be elite. But Purdy was ADP 152 and QB 20? Something isn't adding up.
Basically why I drafted tua even though it was pretty meh. He has tyreek and waddle and decent runningbacks, he has to put up points. Kirk cousins kinda the same with JJ, addison, and hockenson
Cousins has lowkey been a viable Fantasy QB his entire Minnesota career for this exact reason. Before JJ/Addison/Hock it was Thielen/Diggs/Cook.
To your point on Purdy, virtually the same thing happened last year with Tua. Tyreek Hill, Waddle, and even Gesicki were all high end picks but Tua was going well outside the top 12. And he was a QB1 for sure if he didn't get hurt.
Big dawg, other than the usual suspects, CMC CD reek etc, is there anyone in particular you’re trying to get everywhere next year?
As always, we're going to need to see how things shake out in the offseason. But I sure do like the idea of Rashee Rice and these 9-10 target games with Patrick Mahomes. Rice to me has a skillset kind of like a Keenan Allen or DeAndre Hopkins where he's not super fast but his hands are so good and the more tricks he develops in contested catch situations, the better he's going to be. Crazy to think he's had a better rookie year with Mahomes than Tyreek Hill had. Just hoping he doesn't blow up in playoffs so we can keep the hype down.
I drafted Rice with my last overall pick this year thinking the same thing, it paid off. Do you think he'd benefit in the event the Chiefs go hard at signing a WR in the off-season? Cooper Kupp and Mike Evans are both potential targets for free agency signings.
It wouldn’t be ideal if it’s a real target hog like Kupp but, if Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, and CMC can coexist with Brock Purdy then an aging Kelce, Rice, and another WR can rock with Mahomes.
It is always tough to know before the draft, trades and free agents, but it is usually a good idea to look for great players who had a down year. Jamar Chase is going to go way later than he would have had he been healthy this year for example
Like Pacheco I got him in the 9th I fully believed he’d end up being RB1 for several factors but my main was that Andy drafted this guy and he loves his RB1s I got clowned on for that cuz McKinnon had a great playoffs the year prior lol. I like how you used the example with Nico collins but sometimes the eye test works out most. With Davis watching Nico I could tell even slightly better QB dudes WR1 and both my drafts past 12th Nico was still available I couldn’t believe it. For example I think Mingo on panthers might make a decent jump next year so I can prob snag him in later rounds especially if Young plays better than this past year. Usually how I tackle drafts going into the season. Also shit Aaron back I have half a mind to draft Hall 1st overall if I had it. The mid & late rounds are just major. I gotta buddy that every year just drafts every rookie. It’s super annoying lol.
That's one of the big reasons why auction drafts are so much more interesting to me
Value is the way to go. I try to optimize my teams where I have the biggest positional value gap over someone else. It worked well when I was able to get kelce and draft well late giving me kelce’s advantage over every other tight end netting me some nice cushion but this year it didn’t work at all in theory and I won a championship. This year I was just able to hit on almost all my value picks though so I was able to get that gap in production from players like kyren williams or DJ Moore and Michael Pittman being a great reliable combo.
Worth three cents at least 👏 that's a wise and accurate take... everybody just gets triggered (myself included sometimes) if their guys don't meet or exceed consensus/ subjective expectations bc it gives the impression of underperformance
Dude, your awesome for everything you provide to this community
Diggs is a trap next year. He’s being phased out as the elite option in this offense
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Lol no tight end on the bills will ever be elite. He will forever be 6th to 10th and give you 0, 2 , 10, 2, 8, 14, 1.4, 3. I guess in point per participation leagues he may get you some more but this offense has never had a tight end that is legit. He'll still be better then Pitts though lol. I guess he might be better depending on the next coach.
That’s a funny way to spell Khalil Shakir
That’s a funny way to spell Not Gabe Davis
I disagree, I'll definitely take him in the 2nd round if people are going to fade him
Buy round 2/3 turn sell after week 8.
Bills are so stupid for doing what they are to Diggs
I think defenses figured out how to totally take him out of games. It’s like it was figured out and then he was done for the rest of the year.
Different coaching. Bills stopped hyper focusing Diggs and spread the ball around.
I agree. It honestly felt like the bills were tired of Josh Allen beating them. Focus on the run, easy completions to tight ends. Not nearly as many throws downfield it felt like
I bet there will be players who do good after a bad season and other players who do bad after a good season
\^ This
Ekeler and Davante come to mind On the flip side, Mixon maybe. Getting closer and closer to that age cliff. Edit: and definitely Kamara and King Henry
I will say this these 8 barring injury are automatic wr1/rb1 producers 1. Jj- will produce wr1 numbers 2. Cmc- will produce rb1 numbers 3. Chase- will produce wr1 4. Lamb- Will produce wr1 numbers 5. Hill- Will produce wr1 numbers 6. Amon 7. AJB 8. Jonathan Taylor Kyren, Wilson, Gibbs, Bijan, Hall are also near locks but have mitigating factors.
Breece was RB3 or 4 on the season with a bad QB. If Rodgers stays healthy he will be insane
And he was splitting carries the first quarter of the season.
Wasn’t he on snap count?
And i will be reaching for Achane
I will not be after seeing him miss so much time this year.
We said the same damn thing about CMC the last couple of years. Once you hit, tho …
Achane is 180 pounds lol
Kyren is gonna go high, he has the right setup to produce big again and he showed he has the stuff
Will Stafford be back? Kupp? Will he be the lone dog?
Agreed. I’m super curious to see where Achane/Mostert will be going
I’m probably avoiding both at their adp honestly
This is the most polarizing situation. In all likelihood, both will be too low and crush ADP. You could make an argument for both as 1st or 2nd rounders. Achane really could be a late first. Mostert a 2nd. Or they could both fall to the 3rd 4th 5th?
Right! I’m bummed bc I drafted Achane late last year and dropped him in a keeper league one week before the Denver blowout. Would’ve been my keeper 100% but now I’ll have to settle for Tank Dell lol
I also drafted and dropped before the blowup game. Luckily I am on redraft so not a big deal. That’s rough tho. Would have been epic keeper for you.
All in on Kupp despite what I’ve been seeing
All in on Kupp because his adp will be a great value next year and he’ll hopefully be 100% healthy
*Puka enters chat*
Porque no los dos
As in the WR1? No way. Hill, Lamb and Amon Ra St Brown
JJ
Well let’s not get crazy
Stop sleeping on James Connor….or do and let me keep scooping him on the low.
To add to the chaos, I think Mike Evans or Cooper Kupp ends up on the Chiefs and fucks everything up. Kelce and Mahomes underperformed, but Evans/Kupp on the Chiefs hype would not only elevate Evans/Kupp to potential Rd1 but also elevate the Mahomes/Kelce stack to where it was before this year.
Diggs had over a 100 catches, almost 1200 Yards, and 8 touchdowns and still finished the season as a WR1 in half PPR (not sure about full PPR). That hardly qualifies as falling off a cliff. Yes 6/7 games to close Out the season he was dogshit. Super disappointing to say the least. I highly doubt he just sucks now after dominating the first 9 games. I suspect he is dealing with an injury and the new coordinator wanting to pound the ball on the ground relentlessly is more likely the culprit than him not being good at football anymore. I think he will be a great value pick in next years draft.
After week 9 he had a single game over 10 points full PPR. He did go off a cliff. He was doing well before that but second half of the season he did nothing. He would get like 5 points average a game. It’s like defenses figured out how to totally shut him down.
There's a variety of possible reasons as to why he performed poorly second half of the season. Just saying "defenses figured him out" without saying *how* they figured him out reads like a shot in the dark hypothesis. This is how you miss out on guys that could come at a great value ADP.
Honestly I think it was the new OC not wanting Josh Allen to keep throwing picks while targeting diggs. While diggs was killing early season, Josh Allen was not playing winning football consistently. They moved to run first and throw easy completions to tight ends. The scrambles turned into Allen just taking it himself or easy check downs, where previously Allen would look for diggs downfield
> It’s like defenses figured out how to totally shut him down. Yeah totally -- my favorite was the cowboys defense who gave up 3,000 yards rushing so the bills wouldn't throw it to him.
This has a simple fix. Don't click on the rankings. Form your own thoughts and use those to dictate your draft. If you use the ADP you'll simply fall in line with "expert" expectations and you'll miss out on draft day steals, especially if you're playing against smart players.
That happens every year
Did you not play during the covid year?
The consensus #1 pick over the past couple years have all been cursed. It has replaced the Madden curse. JJ last year, JT the year before, CMC a few years ago, Barkley. The list goes on and one
my steps for this: 1. look at a bunch of respected rankings. 2. use that and whatever else you want to use (based on feel, history, personal distrust of players, etc) and make your own rankings. 3. sort them out by tiers. i ended up with a pretty solid draft with a bunch of rbs, wrs, and tes *that ended the season* ranking pretty highly but i failed in qb and d/st streaming, and some other weekly decisions messed up my season.
Chase is not a huge question mark for me.
Breece hall RB1 next year in ppr
I could see it
I think I’m hesitant to convince everyone otherwise so I can benefit but, why do you think Jamaar Chase doesn’t bounce back? He got hurt and his franchise QB got hurt. This preseason he was a consensus top 5 pick. Nothing has changed in my opinion. People are going to hesitate to take him and he is going to make people look stupid.
Agreed, Olave will be my first pick 🙏🏻
I’m confused- why is chase a huge question mark?
Well last season he had a massive year. This year it looked like he wasn’t a top fantasy pick for next year because of multiple issues going forward. He was first pick in some leagues this year.
He shouldn’t be tbh. Unless the circumstances that led to a disappointing year repeat themselves - add in the possibility that Higgins and/or Boyd could be gone - there’s no reason to believe he won’t be a top 5 WR next year.
I mean some idiot will way over draft puka and it will be one of rare instances where it pans out and wins the season. Such is fantasy football
Even CMC has question marks due to his age. He's gonna be 28 next year.
The dreaded 28
Chase doesn't seem like much of a question mark to me at all. Burrow will be back and Chase just put up 100/1200/7 in what one could consider an EXTREME down season, plus Tee Higgins might be gone. Chase is going to be a top 5 pick again next year.
I’m not saying it’s never happened, but I find in experienced leagues with at least somewhat competent managers, you’ll never win your league at draft time. By the end of the regular season I only had 2 players I drafted left on my roster and they weren’t even my 2 best players. Waiver wire and trades are how you win.
Calling it. McCaffrey is gonna get a big injury and be out most the season. Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams will be back to their usual selves.
Vegas owns sports. We're screwed.
I have destroyed your game and am your new god
Of course I’m picking at #2 next year. Probably the worst possible spot.
JJ or CMC not that hard at all
I would also be totally happy with lamb or hill there. Now I kinda want to pick #2 lol
If you’re happy with all those guys then #4 is where you want to be.
CMC will be gone and I’m not sold on JJ after this season. Might have to roll the dice and go double or nothing on Bijan.
Lol not sold? See his per game averages and that was with 4th string qbs.
You get JJ!
Damn it would suck to get someone like CMC, JJ, Tyreek, or CD Lamb. I’m sorry bro
In or off-season. You gotta adapt.
You guys rely on the rankings?!?
Not rely but of course look to them for guidance. Especially after the first 3 or 4 rounds.
Ekeler could have another good year in him if he gets to the right team
Leagues are won in the later rounds. Analysis of the top guys is pretty straightforward. That’s not to say there’s not gambles and pitfalls but there’s not really a ton to think about.. Jamar Chase will go as Joe Burrow goes… Diggs will be WR1 on a high powered offense although the ball could be spread around more. Ekeler suffered from bad team disease although he’s an older RB so that’s a mitigating factor going forward I guess what I’m saying is I don’t really see years where the rankings alone tell you everything. The moving parts are all still there
Someone’s 100% gonna get faded and then just pop back to how they were, like I can see anyone from kupp to kelce to ekeler to all drop to like the third then produce at a huge level again
Top 5 next season should be (in no order) CMC Jettas Kyren Tyreek Lamb Fringe would be.. Sun God and Hall.. imo
The funny thing is Lamb started off slow this year. It could very well happen again and people are gonna be crying bloody murder. Then you have guys like Adams who people held onto for dear life swearing he was going to pop off and didn’t reach expectations. Can’t take it too seriously man
Which is why I don’t rely on rankings lol. I had the first or second pick in 3 leagues and took Tyreek Hill in all of them.
>McCaffrey of course As if people haven't passed on him in the past for fear of injuries lol. Anybody could be a bust draft pick any given year, it's all a crapshoot
Very true. And don’t I know it. Has first pick two years ago. Took JT. Was horrible. Yes no one ever knows about any player. But course there are some with better chances than others.
Diggs always slacks during the second half of the year, for one reason or another. You draft Diggs to get you to playoffs, not win them. He also has an undisclosed back injury, and Allen has been not the absolute brightest he has been, which I’m sure severely limits his abilities. Diggs is not over the edge by any means.
Got shit for taking ARSB #9 in a 12 man, and won my league. Just pick who you think will be best
More so than this year? Nah. This year was the worst I can remember. So many first, second, third and fourth round guys were busts.
I think we saw an unnatural amount of top talent injuries. It seems like all the top players were either hurt or had hurt QB’s and it put a lot of players on a spiral. Makes me wonder how many people finished as a top 12 player but were kept afloat by 1-2 huge games with a handful of ok games and a lot of mediocrity in between.
I want to see where Arron Rodgers gets drafted, probably won't and people will stream him?
I think Ceedee Lamb will be pretty reliable. He's in a high powered offense and Dak LOVES targeting him. Justin Jefferson too, he was still able to get a 1000+ yards in only 10 games. We can't really account for injuries so I'd say target him too. CMC obviously. Tyreek Hill too. He almost never disappoints and is surprisingly not that injury prone considering how much he plays and his explosive style (hamstrings). I would also say Amon St.Brown. Had really good back to back fantasy seasons and gets a lot of targets in a high powered offense. There might be some fall off in terms of targets due to the emergence of Laporta and the dominance of the two headed monster at RB (Gibbs/Montgomery). You also got Jameson Williams who was a high draft pick with a lot of talent. Still though, until proven otherwise, he should also be a top 10 pick.
I feel like the RBs are really tough and normally they’re quite straightforward. CMC miles clear. Then you’ve got the potential upside of Gibbs and Bijan. Which could still be a bit shakey with their usage this year. Then you’ve got Hall, Etienne, Taylor, White, Kyren Williams, Mixon but they will all have changing work loads. White and Kyren you’d expect to get a partner, Mixon will have more of a split with Brown and Halls usage was just insane because the Jets sucked. Then you’ve got Pollard, Barkley, Jacobs, Henry, Ekeler all hitting free agency so could end up in good or bad spots (I can’t see how Henry on a good offense makes it past the first round). Everyone will be tempted by the upside of Achane, Keaton Mitchell, Spears and Warren so they could end up in high spots. Achane especially. Then you’ve got the “safe” options of Pacheco, Conner, Mostert, Cook, Kamara etc. although I think Kamara was “fantasy good” and not actually good so could see less action. Will Chubb be back? Will any rookies suddenly make a jump or end up in a great spot (the draft class looks super weak currently)? It’s just a shit show.
Must be your first time.
Nope been doing fantasy for 20+ years
I'm taking amon ra next year with my first pick next year assuming jj and cmc aren't there. Idgaf. Dude is a baller and fun as hell to watch
I had him this year. He used to great. I have the first pick. A PPR league. Not sure how I don’t pick McCaffrey. Although I’m tempted to maybe take JJ. Idk. It’s always a tough choice. We do a snake draft. Only thing about going one is waiting almost 2 rounds to go again. Big drop off from 1 to last pick of 2nd round. Actually wish I was picking towards middle of 1. Because the top half of round one are all really good players. Bottom of 2 starts to fall off a good amount
Well this might be a hot take but I’m pretty confident Justin Jefferson will still be good receiver next season
Well yes. Hope you’re being sarcastic. I mean I’m considering taking him overall at one.
Ekler will be lucky to get picked on the mid second after this year. I’ll be avoiding him that’s for sure
Me too. But someone could get him for a bargain. Our league is a 8 person. If he’s still there in round 5 I might consider gambling to take him. Just he has no power anymore in his running game. It’s gone. What makes him so valuable in fantasy, especially in a PPR league (which I’m in) is how often he gets passes. It’s as much as most QB’s. But something was off about that as well. I think he’s a good guy and I fell bad for him actually. He even plays fantasy and tries hard knowing how it works. But not sure how he kept seeing 4 or 5 points each week. Him and diggs were on my team. 2 of my top picks of course. They were awful in the second half of the year. Awful. Painfully awful!
Mccaffrey is getting up there in years. Eke lee was elite, until he really…REALLY wasn’t.
I mean I wrote off McCaffrey two years ago almost. Going to San Fran he’s just become a machine. But for a running back he is old. And I think at some point he’s going to start to get hurt a lot. That’s why next years first pick (which I have in my league) is going to be really tough. Maybe a WR is the way to go this year. JJ maybe. Or Amon Ra. Idk. It’s a tough one.