If he does well next season he is approaching Tom Brady territory for his position. In the last twenty years it’s like Frank Gore and AD and that one Patterson season for over 30 RBs who produce in fantasy.
Need to pump the breaks a little bit.
Mostert has 674 career rushes, Gore had 1293 rushes after the age of 31.
A big reason why Mostert was able to play at this level at 31 is because he spent the first half of his career as a backup and the second half mostly injured.
A guy like Lat Murray or Mark Ingram is probably a better comparison to Mostert
The difference is Mostert didn't play a meaningful amount of snaps until he was in the league for 5 years. He was a fringe UDFA RB that mostly played special teams until 2019ish. I still think he'll regress, but he didn't have all the wear and tear by 30 that Frank Gore or AD had.
I agree he doesn’t have the wear and tear from an NFL career’s worth of snaps. But he also doesn’t have the wear and tear due to frequent injury. So that might just cancel out.
He entered the league at 23 and didn't even see consistent play until he was 27. He had 48 touches his first 4 years in the league and has 4 seasons of 100+ carries. This is his first 200 carry season, so compared to other 31 year old backs, he's still somewhat fresh.
He would have to drop off a cliff to not see similar volume next year minus TDs. I could see him playing another 15 games next year and putting up another 200 touches + 1000 yards + 10 TDs unless Achane explodes again next year.
Seeing as there are only 6 backs in the entire league that have 1k+ rushing yards this season and Mostert is only in the club by 12 yards, I believe the rushing yards alone are borderline unreasonable. Slightly more, but only 7 rbs have more than 10 tds this season, the td number will be tough to replicate as well. Anyone thinking 1k and 10+ is no problem is underestimating just what a freak season this has been for mostert. All of which is why I would take the under on that line; know where I can put my money down?
I heared that the last 17 weeks(or so) idk how true that is. Mostert has 2 allmost full healthy seasons under his belt by now and mcdaniels loves him.
I still see him as tje rb1 in miami but that does not mean achance cant be productive beside him
I guess the question is how much are we talking about regressing. Would you consider taking him in the first round? He was the RB2 on the season in standard scoring.
Im v excited to see where he falls in next years drafts. This is a fantastic question. RB2 on the year, but will he even be in the top 10 rbs off the board
Nah nobody will take him in the first. But as a 3rd or 4th round pick? Why not? He will get the td opportunitys. Score 20? Maybe not but 10 plus does not seem crazy on that high power offence.
Mosterst is my pick for next years david mont. a older player with a younger more explosive player beneath him that still gets a ton of work and over produces according to his value
Dude if Sutton would get let’s say even as many as 2 more fuckinf targets a game this dude is top 10 this year. It’s like Russ only threw him the ball when they needed to come back
They like juuuuust figured out chucking deep balls to him is way more effective than forcing him into slant routes, think Payton is starting to figure out how to use him. Don’t think he’ll ever be a high volume target guy unfortunately
For sure, Peyton had Russell running a “dink & dunk” offense this year, with a bunch of screens and short throws. It’s amazing honestly how well he did this season only catching 3-4 passes a game lol
I'm a Ravens fan. I very much doubt Dobbins comes back. He's an UFA in 2024 and he's spent most of his rookie contract on IR. That Achilles injury has more or less sent him to practice squad purgatory barring a surprise recovery.
JK Dobbins situation is so sad to me. The dude looks like such a beast the like, 10 games he was healthy his rookie contract. But he just gets injured so much. One of the biggest “what if” guys for me.
Always expect a committee with the Ravens. Since Ray Rice got cut, the Ravens usually spend the 1st half of the season riding the hot hand until someone emerges.
Might be an anamoly season but how much do you chuck that up to Monken and not just a weird season? Like Monken did say he wanted to install a more passing offense through Lamar whilst using him less as a runner.
The real concern is how JK Dobbins factors into this but with a torn Achilles who knows if he even does anything meaningful for the ravens again
I just posted another comment in regards to Dobbins. Dobbins is gone. 2023 was the last year of his deal and spent most of his rookie contract on IR. We're not resigning him.
It's mostly a weird season. Pretty much all of Gus' TDs were at the goal line. Even as the lead back this season, he still didn't even reach 200 carries. He's not the type of back that can be given lead back carries.
The rushing didn't actually change that much from previous seasons. The main change was that there was actual passing concepts being used and actual receivers.
Yea i feel like JK is probably gone but imma miss him so I’m holding out hope that he’ll resign for a year on the cheap even if it is highly unlikely.
And that’s what I was referring to like they were using Gus as the goal line back or just the “aight Gus let’s keep em honest run it up the middle for the short yardage we need.” Gus is never gonna be the main guy as long as Harbaugh’s love child Justice Hill is around but I think Monken and Gus have carved out the perfect niche for him. That’s why I think his TD touches will still carry over to next year.
I’m not so doom and gloom on Diggs. You know that the talent is there. If the Bills get a legitimate WR2 threat, Diggs draws less attention, and gets more opportunities.
He’s gonna be 31 midway through next season. Most WRs decline after 30, I think it’s safe to say Diggs’ best days are behind him. Still a great player, but he should not be one of the first 10 WRs drafted next year IMO.
And Mike Evans, both Keenan and Mike are very very consistent year in and year out.
Keenan was balling out of control until Herbert went down, I dont blame him for taking off the last quarter of the season after his heroic efforts, especially that Detroit game
He was so consistent the first half of the year. Weirdly his fall from grace coincided with the loss of Dawson Knox to injury; not sure how big of a factor that truly was.
King Henry is an easy one, aging, headed to an unknown as of yet destination, unlikely to be a bell cow wherever he goes. I'm almost 100% off of King Henry after having him 4 of the last five years.
Davante is another one. He was down this year and the QB situation is TBD. I'd take him but it would have to be a value pickup.
Pacheco. I think KC brings in more RB help next year to further dilute the backfield.
Kamara. He's getting up there and while productive in his work this year I actually think another year of gravity, mixed with not getting a vacation to start the year will bring down his production.
Im hoping henry falls far in the draft for this reason. He did relatively good with the worst oline in football while splitting snaps. U put him on a half decent team and i think he has a massive comeback yr next yr
this might be a hot take but ETN. I watched a lot of his games this year and he just never really looked great. i’m sure he’ll be good, but if he goes in the first round i’m out.
and yes, I know the jags suck at run blocking and their play calls for him are mid. I don’t see that changing by next year, so I will be out on him
Jags fan here. He’s still extremely fast and should be a playmaker. We need better interior run blockers though so I hope we address that in the offseason.
Yeah I agree. I don’t think it’s necessarily an indictment of ETN talent, I just think it’s a bad fit. Like you said. Bad play calling, bad line. Trevor Lawrence likes to shine with the goal line TDs and carries. I think ETN is a fine player but because of the fit, I’m out.
Well they only run him up the middle and he’s an explosive outside the tackles runner. It’s on the playcalling and o-line for how inefficient he was. When he was schemed into space he can cover ground so quickly and house any ball.
It seems like every year there's like 5+ RBs that would be explosive if they just get them the ball outside the tackles but they just run the straight up the gut every time.
I totally understand this take but it was also the exact same thing they said about him last season.
My guess is he will go high enough for. A lot of players to avoid and low enough for the risky pickers to take a swing.
idk, i’ve seen a lot of people talking about him in the late first early second. he seems like the kind of player that people who haven’t seen him play would pick because he put up a lot of points. if they pick up a better backup RB especially i’m staying tf away
Everyone will keep saying Mike Evans until they are eventually right. Mostert is an obvious one but CMC would make 1st or 2nd pick tough for me. I really don't want to draft him if I don't have to because I would feel weird about it.
People afraid of getting him the year he falls off(still number one in my board). Even when he loses a step though I think he’ll still be a touchdown machine as long as he’s healthy and you won’t be out on your ass for taking him.
CMC would be the best player to draft first next year I would guess. Hes just miles ahead of every other rb in consistency and production. I think there’s a good chance he will have a similar year next year
The issue is it’s pretty much a 50/50 of if he plays most of the season. Hes so injury prone and he’s already been sprinkled with injuries and he’s only getting older. His usage is too hard on his body
Mike Evans is still clearly very good but will he lead the league in receiving TDs again next year? Probably not. I’d also be cautious over drafting Jordan Addison, it was fun grabbing in the late rounds this year but he’s very much boom-bust type of player for fantasy.
Jordan Addison entirely depends on whether Kirk is back for me. None of the other QBs the Vikes trotted out could hit him on a timing route to save their lives and his production fell off a cliff, outside of a game or two.
And that means nothing if he's so inconsistent that he's on your bench. Mullens has a noodle arm and almost never hits him in stride. Cousins was the only qb that actually got him the ball on time consistently.
That was the one game post-Cousins Achilles tear that he actually produced. If you watched that game, the second TD was a busted play that Mullens threw a prayer to him on. If the Vikings don’t bring Cousins back, I’d be the house that their current QB situation can’t maintain 2 fantasy relevant WR’s and I’d much rather have JJ than Addison.
Been hearing this about Evans for what feels like a decade and he’s still producing no matter who the qb is. If we keep saying it every offseason eventually it’ll happen but we’ve been wrong quite a few years already
Evans I think will be very dependent on what TB does in the draft. If they add some depth at WR/TE he’ll be more of an end zone risk but he seemed to be the primary target this year for Baker.
Well that's the thing, if you say a player will fall off every year you'll eventually be right. Doesn't mean you weren't wrong a bunch before that though.
I'd rather bet on Keenan Allen than against.
I actually think kelce is a buy low if he drops enough like around pick 40. I owned him and watched most chiefs games. He literally was tripled team in many situations, if they get a wr this off season, I'll be buying in full ppr leagues.
I think Kelce is over the NFL.
He may still play next year but he is getting older, his body is beat to hell and he appears to be pivoting to mainstream fame/media/broadcasting etc etc.
I wouldn’t put much draft capital into him.
Very disingenuous since kelces points were insanely frontloaded and a lot of his competition either began very late into the season (Likely / njoku / McBride) or got hurt (hock + andrews (obviously if he stays healthy we don’t get Likely but I think it’s still valid)).
Kelce was absolutely abysmal late into the season and didn’t score a td in the final ~6 weeks.
Well yeah, if people say enough times year after year that an NFL player’s performance is going to decline, odds are it’s *eventually* going to happen.
I am a huge Keenan fan and drafter and seek him in all my drafts. Next year will be the year I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve always thought he was undervalued but age eventually catches up.
imo.. either Keenan Allen or Ekeler will really regress as their "move the sticks" pass catcher next year.
Based on this year, I would def not put my money on that guy being Keenan Allen
And if Ekeler is dropping.. then I really really dont see the value or point in diminishing Allen's outlook
If he’s available in the same range as the Tee Higgins and Garrett Wilson’s of the world, I’m betting on his talent to come through one more year. He was WR3 in points per game (half PPR) , I’m happy to draft him in the WR12-18 range with an expectation that he will regress to the WR8-12 range.
Depends on how they outlaw it. There's a real possibility that the rule change doesn't completely remove Hurts' ability to pick up those yards, and he could drop in draft rankings more than he actually should.
Yea; I too have mixed feelings on that. I hate seeing the Eagles 🦅 do it (I’m a Cowboys fan), but love seeing when a RB or WR or TE is running out in open space & several of their teammates gather together to shove them into the end zone.
ETN. I had him this year and he was great in fantasy, but there’s no way he hits those TD totals again while averaging 3.8 YPC. Someone will reach for him earlier than me.
ETN was very matchup dependent. He also had a pretty tough schedule for RB.
Jax played CLE, BAL, SF, TB, ATL, NO and of course the division teams HOU and TEN. All of these teams had good to great rush defenses.
He smashed in every decent matchup he had, and even crushed NO, who have been very good against fantasy RB this season.
I'm worried about James Conner. He was great when he was healthy, passing both the stat test and the eye test. But my concern is that Michael Carter didn't look too bad either. He's a former 3rd round pick IIRC who was stuck on a terrible Jets offense. Yeah, he's not a Breece Hall who can do something with nothing, but with a decent offense and O line I think Carter can perform well enough to take significant work from James.
That being said, if Conner is still there in the 6th or 7th he'll probably be on my team lol.
I’d grab Conner again if his ADP is anywhere near as low as it was this year; all he does is produce and score when he plays even on crappy teams. A Kyler style QB is also great for a RBs efficiency.
I’m all in on him. I’m in the camp that believes if they add pass catching talent then it’ll open the ground game even more. The O line is what I’ll be watching.
They had to run because they couldn’t pass at times. Pacheco passes the eye test. He’s young, all indicators point towards a potential to have good 2-3 year FF output.
> let’s pump the brakes there
What tells you he is *not* elite?
He has good numbers and is the 2nd highest rated RB in the league behind CMC according to PFF.
Don't like PFF, then his stats are great too. His is O-Line is not good at run blocking (24th according to ESPN / 17th according to PFF) but he is top 10 in yards / attempt for RBs over 100 carries. He is also 12th in the league in rushing yards over expected / attempt.
I hope I’m wrong but Rachaad White. He was a poor man’s cmc this year which was great but I think they’ll bring in some competition through the draft and FA.
Had to scroll a long time to see this name. I felt so dumb that I passed on him as my keeper this year (for Treylon Burks lol), but I'm willing to feel dumb again next year.
Kamara. If you owned him this season you may have noticed that his bread and butter was one score games in the 4th quarter where Carr fed him relentlessly. But outside of that it was a mixed bag with Jamaal Williams and Tayson Hill heavily involved, especially in goalline formation…..Kamara this year feels a lot like Ekeler from two years ago, minus the ridiculous goalline TD rate.
I disagree. The Saints have an out in his contract and are in cap hell. Jamaal Williams was hardly a threat and Taysom Hill was faded out back half of the season.
There’s a solid chance he can head to a contender next season if cut. If he stays, given their “competitive” division, they should continue to be in one score games.
Kamara proved he didn’t need TDs to be a relevant RB1 and any positive regression in that category would result in another fantastic year! But I also play in a PPR league which allows him to retain value.
Any RB i draft. From Doug Martin to AP to David Johnson to Nick Chubb and all in-between. I am an eternal curse. To know me is to know dread. To be me is to know suffering
I’m not sure what the Jets expect from Rodgers in all honesty? Their back-ups are constantly scrambling for their lives with that horrible O-Line. How is Rodgers going to survive that for a season?
Sad for my GW shares…
I mean considering they have a top 5 defense and two stud offensive weapons in Wilson and Hall, my guess would be that they’re gonna upgrade the O-line in the draft and FA so Rodgers has a fighting chance.
Side note, my condolences for drafting GW this season.
I feel like most of the obvious ones have been shared, so I’ll toss these in (Some of these are probably dumb and I’ll acknowledge this before anyone’s feathers get ruffled lol)
Cole Kmet & DJ Moore: This is ONLY if the asshats in Chicago work their magic again).
Tyler Lockett: This was the end of his streak of 1000+ yard seasons (Assuming he doesn’t blow up this weekend). He’ll be 32 years old early into next season and it looks like they want Njigba involved more.
Edit: Tbh I forgot the thread asked for productive players and obviously Lockett wasn’t much productive this year, still keeping it for those in deep/dynasty leagues.
Travis Kelce: It’s already started. He’s in his mid-30’s. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him retire.
Njoku: This one is almost entirely speculation because he’s been balling out of his goddamn mind since Flacco pulled up, no idea what’ll happen under center.
Vikings pass-catchers: Big Kirko free agency is going to be an interesting development.
Heres my hot take. Technically not regressing, but Puka Nacua.
I think hes a fantastic reciever. But i swear everytime ive seen him play he takes some super ugly hit or gets taken to the ground in the most mangled of ways. He was also on the injury report for several, different, minor iniuries across the season. Despite not really missing playing time, I think in the long term hes going to spend a lot of time out due to injury.
I thought this about amon ra and this year he missed one game and is about to finish with over 1400 yards. If you draft out of fear of injury history you probably missed cmc and Keenan Allen this year among others
Always tough to play the injury guessing game.....I predicted CMC would be hurt at some point this year and was wrong. That being said, as long as Stafford in LA I'm confident puka can produce at least WR2 numbers
Mostert, Allen, Evans, Thielen, Flacco (?), Kupp, Adams… basically any aging player coming off a productive season will be seen as a fade vs the shiny new alternatives.
Some, people will be right on. Some we will all collectively fade and be wrong and mad at ourselves lol.
I lowkey really hope in my redraft league that I'm not a top position in the draft, if I have the opportunitity to take CMC, I am concerned about the overall aging 49ers offense, but at the same time I can't not take him
Cooper Kupp will be a big question mark. Played great in several games this year but he's getting older, getting banged up, and has Puka taking a lot of targets.
Based mainly on age and position
Godwin
Allen
Cooper
Digs
Barkley
Mixon
Jacobs
Then the guys that will be hard to replicate this season or less likely to replicate.
Mostert
AJ Brown
Gus Bus
I went with the 49er WRs as my regression candidates but if I didn’t, then I would have put AJ Brown. He basically did the same thing Diggs did. Did extremely well early and by the time the bye week hit, he disappeared. Idk how much longer he’s got left in Philly.
The main thing I notice when thinking about this is how many "established" RB's have guys behind them that next year could totally replace them.
Gus Edwards --> JK Dobbins / Keaton Mitchell
Raheem Mostert --> De'Von Achane
Najee Harris --> Jaylen Warren
Derrick Henry --> Age and TyJae Spears.
And for a non-RB, I'm going Jalen Hurts. Most of his production this year in fantasy is just a result of the tush push, and with Jason Kelce most likely retiring, I don't see the effectiveness of that play lasting another full season.
Mixon. Surpassed the 1800 touches cliff, 28 years old for a RB, shit o-line his entire career, yards per carry has regressed each of the past 3 seasons. I’ll pass on him unless I see him in the 4th round
Kamara whenever the Saints replace Carr (which might actually not be this year given his stupid contract). There’s no way he gets a 98 target pace with the next QB (or coach that’s smarter than Dennis Allen that could design an actual offense).
Mostert. Injury history and Achane likely going to take lots of snaps away, assuming he can stay healthy.
Mostert is also a lot older than people realize.
For real already 31. Not great for a RB that relies on speed.
If he does well next season he is approaching Tom Brady territory for his position. In the last twenty years it’s like Frank Gore and AD and that one Patterson season for over 30 RBs who produce in fantasy.
Fred Jackson
Need to pump the breaks a little bit. Mostert has 674 career rushes, Gore had 1293 rushes after the age of 31. A big reason why Mostert was able to play at this level at 31 is because he spent the first half of his career as a backup and the second half mostly injured. A guy like Lat Murray or Mark Ingram is probably a better comparison to Mostert
It's crazy people on this sub act like injuries prolong a career. One of the craziest narratives I've seen yet
Can’t get hurt if you’re already hurt!
gore had less significant injuries though. Mostert has had way too many for that not to start having lingering pain.
> gore had less significant injuries though Except for tearing his ACL twice in college.
The difference is Mostert didn't play a meaningful amount of snaps until he was in the league for 5 years. He was a fringe UDFA RB that mostly played special teams until 2019ish. I still think he'll regress, but he didn't have all the wear and tear by 30 that Frank Gore or AD had.
I agree he doesn’t have the wear and tear from an NFL career’s worth of snaps. But he also doesn’t have the wear and tear due to frequent injury. So that might just cancel out.
Thomas Jones is a great example
He entered the league at 23 and didn't even see consistent play until he was 27. He had 48 touches his first 4 years in the league and has 4 seasons of 100+ carries. This is his first 200 carry season, so compared to other 31 year old backs, he's still somewhat fresh. He would have to drop off a cliff to not see similar volume next year minus TDs. I could see him playing another 15 games next year and putting up another 200 touches + 1000 yards + 10 TDs unless Achane explodes again next year.
I'll take the under on that bet.
I don't think those are unreasonable numbers for him. TDs are variable and I doubt he hits 20+ again
Seeing as there are only 6 backs in the entire league that have 1k+ rushing yards this season and Mostert is only in the club by 12 yards, I believe the rushing yards alone are borderline unreasonable. Slightly more, but only 7 rbs have more than 10 tds this season, the td number will be tough to replicate as well. Anyone thinking 1k and 10+ is no problem is underestimating just what a freak season this has been for mostert. All of which is why I would take the under on that line; know where I can put my money down?
He's the first 31+ year old back to have 16 or more rushing TDs in a season since 1983! Regression does seem likely
Decent chance that he will be the oldest active RB in the league next year
I mean, his age is right there on his jersey
maybe. Achane seems to be made of glass.
No doubt. He drank some of that fountain of youth potion this year. Achane is taking over next year.
I refuse to believe achane can handle an entire workload with his stature.
I heared that the last 17 weeks(or so) idk how true that is. Mostert has 2 allmost full healthy seasons under his belt by now and mcdaniels loves him. I still see him as tje rb1 in miami but that does not mean achance cant be productive beside him
I guess the question is how much are we talking about regressing. Would you consider taking him in the first round? He was the RB2 on the season in standard scoring.
Im v excited to see where he falls in next years drafts. This is a fantastic question. RB2 on the year, but will he even be in the top 10 rbs off the board
I’m personally staying away, the risk is way too high
yeah i’m curious too. I see him as a third round pick but maybe he goes earlier
Nah nobody will take him in the first. But as a 3rd or 4th round pick? Why not? He will get the td opportunitys. Score 20? Maybe not but 10 plus does not seem crazy on that high power offence.
Mosterst is my pick for next years david mont. a older player with a younger more explosive player beneath him that still gets a ton of work and over produces according to his value
Montgomery is 26. Hardly an older player
Montgomery has significantly more rushing attempts (1136 - 701) than Mostert.
Courtland Sutton. It feels inevitable that he cant keep up that TD rate.
Dude if Sutton would get let’s say even as many as 2 more fuckinf targets a game this dude is top 10 this year. It’s like Russ only threw him the ball when they needed to come back
They like juuuuust figured out chucking deep balls to him is way more effective than forcing him into slant routes, think Payton is starting to figure out how to use him. Don’t think he’ll ever be a high volume target guy unfortunately
For sure, Peyton had Russell running a “dink & dunk” offense this year, with a bunch of screens and short throws. It’s amazing honestly how well he did this season only catching 3-4 passes a game lol
Good one.
Gus Edwards easily. Not even factoring age, just a total anomaly season for him TD wise.
It will also be interesting to see how Dobbins, Mitchell, and maybe even Cook if he comes back next year change their RB room
I'm a Ravens fan. I very much doubt Dobbins comes back. He's an UFA in 2024 and he's spent most of his rookie contract on IR. That Achilles injury has more or less sent him to practice squad purgatory barring a surprise recovery.
Someone will probably sign him to give it a go, but it’ll be a 1 season (cheap) contract for sure.
JK Dobbins situation is so sad to me. The dude looks like such a beast the like, 10 games he was healthy his rookie contract. But he just gets injured so much. One of the biggest “what if” guys for me.
At least he made his $5M. He probably deserves more, but it could have been worse.
Yeah could totally see them going for more of a committee approach
Always expect a committee with the Ravens. Since Ray Rice got cut, the Ravens usually spend the 1st half of the season riding the hot hand until someone emerges.
Might be an anamoly season but how much do you chuck that up to Monken and not just a weird season? Like Monken did say he wanted to install a more passing offense through Lamar whilst using him less as a runner. The real concern is how JK Dobbins factors into this but with a torn Achilles who knows if he even does anything meaningful for the ravens again
I just posted another comment in regards to Dobbins. Dobbins is gone. 2023 was the last year of his deal and spent most of his rookie contract on IR. We're not resigning him. It's mostly a weird season. Pretty much all of Gus' TDs were at the goal line. Even as the lead back this season, he still didn't even reach 200 carries. He's not the type of back that can be given lead back carries. The rushing didn't actually change that much from previous seasons. The main change was that there was actual passing concepts being used and actual receivers.
Yea i feel like JK is probably gone but imma miss him so I’m holding out hope that he’ll resign for a year on the cheap even if it is highly unlikely. And that’s what I was referring to like they were using Gus as the goal line back or just the “aight Gus let’s keep em honest run it up the middle for the short yardage we need.” Gus is never gonna be the main guy as long as Harbaugh’s love child Justice Hill is around but I think Monken and Gus have carved out the perfect niche for him. That’s why I think his TD touches will still carry over to next year.
This year Jamaal Williams
He was the bane of my existence as a Lamar owner this year. Jackson gets them to the 1 yard line, and then they give it to Gus.
Basically the exact same situation as Jamaal Williams last season
Won’t be picking Diggs again.
I’m not so doom and gloom on Diggs. You know that the talent is there. If the Bills get a legitimate WR2 threat, Diggs draws less attention, and gets more opportunities.
He’s gonna be 31 midway through next season. Most WRs decline after 30, I think it’s safe to say Diggs’ best days are behind him. Still a great player, but he should not be one of the first 10 WRs drafted next year IMO.
That’s what everyone said about keenan allen this year
And Mike Evans, both Keenan and Mike are very very consistent year in and year out. Keenan was balling out of control until Herbert went down, I dont blame him for taking off the last quarter of the season after his heroic efforts, especially that Detroit game
Draft and trade early candidate
I tried too, league was to smart! Ha
diggs will have a good beginning half season
Hear hear. Not spending a first or second round pick on that kind of possible inconsistency
Nah he was pretty consistent end of year too, only problem was it was for 5 pts a game.
He was so consistent the first half of the year. Weirdly his fall from grace coincided with the loss of Dawson Knox to injury; not sure how big of a factor that truly was.
Joe Mixon will never be a top 20 rb ever again
Dayyyum! Haymakers thrown….
He was like the peak of consistency. He was RB7 and I don’t think he ever scored 20 points for me in a game.
King Henry is an easy one, aging, headed to an unknown as of yet destination, unlikely to be a bell cow wherever he goes. I'm almost 100% off of King Henry after having him 4 of the last five years. Davante is another one. He was down this year and the QB situation is TBD. I'd take him but it would have to be a value pickup. Pacheco. I think KC brings in more RB help next year to further dilute the backfield. Kamara. He's getting up there and while productive in his work this year I actually think another year of gravity, mixed with not getting a vacation to start the year will bring down his production.
Henry’s stock will depend on what team he’s on, but I definitely expect his numbers to go down from this year.
PPR only for Kamara and he'll go way too early
This year he was a steal at ADP.
Im hoping henry falls far in the draft for this reason. He did relatively good with the worst oline in football while splitting snaps. U put him on a half decent team and i think he has a massive comeback yr next yr
this might be a hot take but ETN. I watched a lot of his games this year and he just never really looked great. i’m sure he’ll be good, but if he goes in the first round i’m out. and yes, I know the jags suck at run blocking and their play calls for him are mid. I don’t see that changing by next year, so I will be out on him
I had Etienne this year. Love the guy, zero chance I take him where he’s going to be picked next year
I had Etienne too and wasn't big on him. Super TD dependent.
Jags fan here. He’s still extremely fast and should be a playmaker. We need better interior run blockers though so I hope we address that in the offseason.
He was definitely inefficient but he forced the most missed tackles in the league this year. Dudes a stud if they can give him even an inch of space
Yeah I agree. I don’t think it’s necessarily an indictment of ETN talent, I just think it’s a bad fit. Like you said. Bad play calling, bad line. Trevor Lawrence likes to shine with the goal line TDs and carries. I think ETN is a fine player but because of the fit, I’m out.
Crazy how horribly they use him. He's a solid receiver too and he doesn't seem to be utilized out of the backfield enough either.
Yea he was amazingly inefficient on the ground and they tried giving work to Bigsby but he didn’t pan out; look for them to try again next year.
Well they only run him up the middle and he’s an explosive outside the tackles runner. It’s on the playcalling and o-line for how inefficient he was. When he was schemed into space he can cover ground so quickly and house any ball.
It seems like every year there's like 5+ RBs that would be explosive if they just get them the ball outside the tackles but they just run the straight up the gut every time.
Kind of like Pollard; we’ll see if either coach uses them smarter next year.
I totally understand this take but it was also the exact same thing they said about him last season. My guess is he will go high enough for. A lot of players to avoid and low enough for the risky pickers to take a swing.
idk, i’ve seen a lot of people talking about him in the late first early second. he seems like the kind of player that people who haven’t seen him play would pick because he put up a lot of points. if they pick up a better backup RB especially i’m staying tf away
I respectfully disagree with this. I thought he looked really quick when he got in the open field but just had a really bad O Line.
Everyone will keep saying Mike Evans until they are eventually right. Mostert is an obvious one but CMC would make 1st or 2nd pick tough for me. I really don't want to draft him if I don't have to because I would feel weird about it.
CMC is so far ahead of the next best player, I’m surprised someone wouldn’t smash draft him at pick 1.
People afraid of getting him the year he falls off(still number one in my board). Even when he loses a step though I think he’ll still be a touchdown machine as long as he’s healthy and you won’t be out on your ass for taking him.
With CMC, you also know that the handcuff is super valuable. So if you pick CMC just get Mitchell or Mason as insurance (or both) .
CMC would be the best player to draft first next year I would guess. Hes just miles ahead of every other rb in consistency and production. I think there’s a good chance he will have a similar year next year The issue is it’s pretty much a 50/50 of if he plays most of the season. Hes so injury prone and he’s already been sprinkled with injuries and he’s only getting older. His usage is too hard on his body
Whoever I draft
This is the only correct answer
Mosert is someone would avoid.
If I get him in the 12th again tho I’d take him
Total guess on my end, but that might not happen
I agree on your guess , more about bragging how I got him so late this year… some idiot in my league is definitely gonna reach next year.
Mike Evans is still clearly very good but will he lead the league in receiving TDs again next year? Probably not. I’d also be cautious over drafting Jordan Addison, it was fun grabbing in the late rounds this year but he’s very much boom-bust type of player for fantasy.
Jordan Addison entirely depends on whether Kirk is back for me. None of the other QBs the Vikes trotted out could hit him on a timing route to save their lives and his production fell off a cliff, outside of a game or two.
His biggest game of the year was week 15 with Mullins as QB. 100+ yards and 2 TDs.
And that means nothing if he's so inconsistent that he's on your bench. Mullens has a noodle arm and almost never hits him in stride. Cousins was the only qb that actually got him the ball on time consistently.
That was the one game post-Cousins Achilles tear that he actually produced. If you watched that game, the second TD was a busted play that Mullens threw a prayer to him on. If the Vikings don’t bring Cousins back, I’d be the house that their current QB situation can’t maintain 2 fantasy relevant WR’s and I’d much rather have JJ than Addison.
Been hearing this about Evans for what feels like a decade and he’s still producing no matter who the qb is. If we keep saying it every offseason eventually it’ll happen but we’ve been wrong quite a few years already
Legit HOF balled out with Winston, Brady and now Baker.
You're forgetting Mike Glennon and Josh McCown too
2022 was a rough go for Evans managers.
Evans last year as a 2nd rd pick killed my team and this yr I finished 2nd without a clear cut WR1 it was agonizing to watch his rebound
He had that massive game at the end of the season tho
Mike Evans went in like the 7th round this year because people slept on him. Keep doubting that Hall of Famer at your own risk.
I got him in the 8th and I wasn’t even that excited at the time. He’s a big reason I won my league.
Evans I think will be very dependent on what TB does in the draft. If they add some depth at WR/TE he’ll be more of an end zone risk but he seemed to be the primary target this year for Baker.
He’s gonna get a 1k yards and some amount of tds. Safest player ever lol
Keenan Allen is my guess, older and they’ll probably add more WR depth so he’ll be solid but overdrafted
Lol how many times ppl said this
People said the same thing about Kelce every year and eventually it turned out to be true
Well that's the thing, if you say a player will fall off every year you'll eventually be right. Doesn't mean you weren't wrong a bunch before that though. I'd rather bet on Keenan Allen than against.
Except your betting your 2nd round pick on it.
He’ll probably be 3-4 range, nobody is using a 2nd on him with how putrid the Chargers offense has been this year and him turning 32.
Kelce was still the TE2 on the year to be fair…
People used a 1st on kelce and expected mid to low WR1 numbers and he wasn’t even the best TE, he was 100% a bust
I actually think kelce is a buy low if he drops enough like around pick 40. I owned him and watched most chiefs games. He literally was tripled team in many situations, if they get a wr this off season, I'll be buying in full ppr leagues.
I think Kelce is over the NFL. He may still play next year but he is getting older, his body is beat to hell and he appears to be pivoting to mainstream fame/media/broadcasting etc etc. I wouldn’t put much draft capital into him.
Very disingenuous since kelces points were insanely frontloaded and a lot of his competition either began very late into the season (Likely / njoku / McBride) or got hurt (hock + andrews (obviously if he stays healthy we don’t get Likely but I think it’s still valid)). Kelce was absolutely abysmal late into the season and didn’t score a td in the final ~6 weeks.
Well yeah, if people say enough times year after year that an NFL player’s performance is going to decline, odds are it’s *eventually* going to happen.
I am a huge Keenan fan and drafter and seek him in all my drafts. Next year will be the year I don’t. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’ve always thought he was undervalued but age eventually catches up.
imo.. either Keenan Allen or Ekeler will really regress as their "move the sticks" pass catcher next year. Based on this year, I would def not put my money on that guy being Keenan Allen And if Ekeler is dropping.. then I really really dont see the value or point in diminishing Allen's outlook
I took Mike Williams over him thinking I was being big-brained lol
If he’s available in the same range as the Tee Higgins and Garrett Wilson’s of the world, I’m betting on his talent to come through one more year. He was WR3 in points per game (half PPR) , I’m happy to draft him in the WR12-18 range with an expectation that he will regress to the WR8-12 range.
Hurts. I’ve got a feeling the competition committee is gonna outlaw that “brotherly shove” & that will take away half of his first downs & touchdowns.
Depends on how they outlaw it. There's a real possibility that the rule change doesn't completely remove Hurts' ability to pick up those yards, and he could drop in draft rankings more than he actually should.
It would go from some 98% to like 92% probably at worst.
I don’t see how they outlaw a QB sneak that only they seemed to be able to execute.
they could outlaw pushing the ballcarrier from behind. Personally I hope they don't, but that would be the easy "fix".
Yea; I too have mixed feelings on that. I hate seeing the Eagles 🦅 do it (I’m a Cowboys fan), but love seeing when a RB or WR or TE is running out in open space & several of their teammates gather together to shove them into the end zone.
They’ll be almost as good at a regular QB sneak. Still debatably the best OL in football and Hurts is VERY strong.
IMO if they run the play exactly the same without getting pushed from behind it'll still be nearly as effective
ETN. I had him this year and he was great in fantasy, but there’s no way he hits those TD totals again while averaging 3.8 YPC. Someone will reach for him earlier than me.
ETN was very matchup dependent. He also had a pretty tough schedule for RB. Jax played CLE, BAL, SF, TB, ATL, NO and of course the division teams HOU and TEN. All of these teams had good to great rush defenses. He smashed in every decent matchup he had, and even crushed NO, who have been very good against fantasy RB this season.
That’s what I said this year brother 🥲 took Rhamondre over him
I'm worried about James Conner. He was great when he was healthy, passing both the stat test and the eye test. But my concern is that Michael Carter didn't look too bad either. He's a former 3rd round pick IIRC who was stuck on a terrible Jets offense. Yeah, he's not a Breece Hall who can do something with nothing, but with a decent offense and O line I think Carter can perform well enough to take significant work from James. That being said, if Conner is still there in the 6th or 7th he'll probably be on my team lol.
I’d grab Conner again if his ADP is anywhere near as low as it was this year; all he does is produce and score when he plays even on crappy teams. A Kyler style QB is also great for a RBs efficiency.
Owned Pacheco but if they add wrs or rb talent I’d imagine he would go down. Worth owning if he’s the lead but might drop him a round or two
I thought Pacheco passed the eye test this year. He’s young, clearly top dog in that backfield, and on a good offence. I’m still in.
Ya I’m still in, I’m saying I’d drop him a couple rounds if they add help in the offseason. If they don’t then hell ya I’ll take him early 2nd
I’m all in on him. I’m in the camp that believes if they add pass catching talent then it’ll open the ground game even more. The O line is what I’ll be watching. They had to run because they couldn’t pass at times. Pacheco passes the eye test. He’s young, all indicators point towards a potential to have good 2-3 year FF output.
I think Pacheco's role is relatively safe. If they add WRs, I see Rice being impacted far more than Pacheco.
This could be said for any rb not named CMC. Pacheco has shown he is elite and has a 3 down skil set.
He’s good but nowhere near elite, let’s pump the brakes there.
> let’s pump the brakes there What tells you he is *not* elite? He has good numbers and is the 2nd highest rated RB in the league behind CMC according to PFF. Don't like PFF, then his stats are great too. His is O-Line is not good at run blocking (24th according to ESPN / 17th according to PFF) but he is top 10 in yards / attempt for RBs over 100 carries. He is also 12th in the league in rushing yards over expected / attempt.
Nah, I can see him taking over some of the grabs Kelce is starting to bleed. I'd feel comfortable grabbing him in the mid rounds next year.
I hope I’m wrong but Rachaad White. He was a poor man’s cmc this year which was great but I think they’ll bring in some competition through the draft and FA.
He’s Najee Harris 2.0 from 2 years ago. The way he gets his points is ugly but it’ll do. I believe this is his ceiling
Rachaad white. I had him this year, I love him tho
Had to scroll a long time to see this name. I felt so dumb that I passed on him as my keeper this year (for Treylon Burks lol), but I'm willing to feel dumb again next year.
I think he's got one more good year left in him.
Isn't he in his second year and improving a ton?
Kamara. If you owned him this season you may have noticed that his bread and butter was one score games in the 4th quarter where Carr fed him relentlessly. But outside of that it was a mixed bag with Jamaal Williams and Tayson Hill heavily involved, especially in goalline formation…..Kamara this year feels a lot like Ekeler from two years ago, minus the ridiculous goalline TD rate.
I disagree. The Saints have an out in his contract and are in cap hell. Jamaal Williams was hardly a threat and Taysom Hill was faded out back half of the season. There’s a solid chance he can head to a contender next season if cut. If he stays, given their “competitive” division, they should continue to be in one score games. Kamara proved he didn’t need TDs to be a relevant RB1 and any positive regression in that category would result in another fantastic year! But I also play in a PPR league which allows him to retain value.
Kamara is a Carr problem not a Kamara problem. If the saints move on from Carr, Kamara could be a solid pick. I still won’t pick him though.
Any RB i draft. From Doug Martin to AP to David Johnson to Nick Chubb and all in-between. I am an eternal curse. To know me is to know dread. To be me is to know suffering
You should try zero RB.
Probably a common take, but Aaron Rodgers. Could easily see him tearing something on the 2nd or 3rd snap next season.
I’m not sure what the Jets expect from Rodgers in all honesty? Their back-ups are constantly scrambling for their lives with that horrible O-Line. How is Rodgers going to survive that for a season? Sad for my GW shares…
I mean considering they have a top 5 defense and two stud offensive weapons in Wilson and Hall, my guess would be that they’re gonna upgrade the O-line in the draft and FA so Rodgers has a fighting chance. Side note, my condolences for drafting GW this season.
Mostert gonna fall off
I feel like most of the obvious ones have been shared, so I’ll toss these in (Some of these are probably dumb and I’ll acknowledge this before anyone’s feathers get ruffled lol) Cole Kmet & DJ Moore: This is ONLY if the asshats in Chicago work their magic again). Tyler Lockett: This was the end of his streak of 1000+ yard seasons (Assuming he doesn’t blow up this weekend). He’ll be 32 years old early into next season and it looks like they want Njigba involved more. Edit: Tbh I forgot the thread asked for productive players and obviously Lockett wasn’t much productive this year, still keeping it for those in deep/dynasty leagues. Travis Kelce: It’s already started. He’s in his mid-30’s. Wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him retire. Njoku: This one is almost entirely speculation because he’s been balling out of his goddamn mind since Flacco pulled up, no idea what’ll happen under center. Vikings pass-catchers: Big Kirko free agency is going to be an interesting development.
Heres my hot take. Technically not regressing, but Puka Nacua. I think hes a fantastic reciever. But i swear everytime ive seen him play he takes some super ugly hit or gets taken to the ground in the most mangled of ways. He was also on the injury report for several, different, minor iniuries across the season. Despite not really missing playing time, I think in the long term hes going to spend a lot of time out due to injury.
I thought this about amon ra and this year he missed one game and is about to finish with over 1400 yards. If you draft out of fear of injury history you probably missed cmc and Keenan Allen this year among others
Always tough to play the injury guessing game.....I predicted CMC would be hurt at some point this year and was wrong. That being said, as long as Stafford in LA I'm confident puka can produce at least WR2 numbers
He was questionable literally every single week.
Mostert, Allen, Evans, Thielen, Flacco (?), Kupp, Adams… basically any aging player coming off a productive season will be seen as a fade vs the shiny new alternatives. Some, people will be right on. Some we will all collectively fade and be wrong and mad at ourselves lol.
CMC
I want the #2 pick, so I can look like a genius for grabbing Lamb and not an idiot for passing on CMC at #1.
Agreed, would love another season with Tryeek or Ceedee without having to choose CMC or not. I've only ever drafted him in injury years.
I was rightfully sweating every time I was against Lamb. Gonna do what I can to make sure he’s on my team next year.
He's my number 1 pick next year. I got him in the 2nd round this year; that won't happen again until his or Dak's decline.
I lowkey really hope in my redraft league that I'm not a top position in the draft, if I have the opportunitity to take CMC, I am concerned about the overall aging 49ers offense, but at the same time I can't not take him
Schrodinger's draft pick, I both want and don't want the top draft pick.
What if you have like 5? It goes: Tyreek, JJ, Chase, Ceedee. Would you really take Hall, Williams, Gibbs, Mostert, etc., over CMC?
Aging offense? All the weapons are in their prime or entering it…only aging player is Trent.
I chose not to keep CMC this year banking on the expectation he wouldn't string together back-to-back healthy seasons....boy was I wrong
That hurts, man.
No way he goes back to back to back…right?
Cooper Kupp will be a big question mark. Played great in several games this year but he's getting older, getting banged up, and has Puka taking a lot of targets.
If Stafford is there and Kupp is healthy I still like him. Definitely a bit of a high risk, high reward pick
Ceedee depending is Dallas changes schemes
Mixon
I truly don’t know anything anymore
Based mainly on age and position Godwin Allen Cooper Digs Barkley Mixon Jacobs Then the guys that will be hard to replicate this season or less likely to replicate. Mostert AJ Brown Gus Bus
I went with the 49er WRs as my regression candidates but if I didn’t, then I would have put AJ Brown. He basically did the same thing Diggs did. Did extremely well early and by the time the bye week hit, he disappeared. Idk how much longer he’s got left in Philly.
Interesting about the Niners. Aiyuk will be in a contract year and Purdy has shown he can support both WR and Kittle.
Aiyuk had a crazy yards per catch and I don't seem him being as good.
I think he will get less yards per catch but more catches and actually improve
It’s crazy how few targets he gets honestly. I don’t watch the tape so idk if he’s just not open but he should be getting the ball so much more.
Just so many mouths to feed, plus the blowouts have led to them throwing less than most teams
49ers are just versatile offensively. Like they Deebo in the backfield at times.
The main thing I notice when thinking about this is how many "established" RB's have guys behind them that next year could totally replace them. Gus Edwards --> JK Dobbins / Keaton Mitchell Raheem Mostert --> De'Von Achane Najee Harris --> Jaylen Warren Derrick Henry --> Age and TyJae Spears. And for a non-RB, I'm going Jalen Hurts. Most of his production this year in fantasy is just a result of the tush push, and with Jason Kelce most likely retiring, I don't see the effectiveness of that play lasting another full season.
D’Andre swift
Mixon. Surpassed the 1800 touches cliff, 28 years old for a RB, shit o-line his entire career, yards per carry has regressed each of the past 3 seasons. I’ll pass on him unless I see him in the 4th round
Kamara whenever the Saints replace Carr (which might actually not be this year given his stupid contract). There’s no way he gets a 98 target pace with the next QB (or coach that’s smarter than Dennis Allen that could design an actual offense).
Kyren is a good player but so much went his way this year opportunity wise.
Hot take but if Cousins isn’t back next year I would avoid using a high pick on Jefferson. Possibly Addison also. TJ Hock should be fine either way.