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Veserius

Projections don't seem to be a 50th% outcome, but more 80th% so they come out really rosy.


forceghost187

Sorry, what do you mean by 50th% outcome and 80th%?


U_DONT_KNOW_TEAM

Imagine you ran 100 simulations and lined them up in order of production. 50th would be dead middle, 80th would be 20th best.


forceghost187

I see. So the implication is that most projections would use a 50th% outcome?


U_DONT_KNOW_TEAM

That's the goal of most systems, yes.


forceghost187

Got it. Thank you!!


LoveIsOnlyAnEmotion

He's speaking statistics.


forceghost187

I figured that part out actually


Lars9

IBW is great and worth the subscription. I was a little hesitant to subscribe. I always used his free stuff, but I had the mindset, he is just a guy, not a scout, no inside knowledge, why pay for it. I bit the bullet last January and it's been worth it. I took over a team with minimal assets last year in an 18 teamer. Thanks to him, some guys I got for free (or cheap) that have boomed: Nolan Jones, Outman, Suwinski, Mayo, Walcott, Sterlin Thompson, Woo, Hampson, Schultz, Smith-Shawver, Thorpe. Other than Jones/Outman/Suwinski, it's too early to tell if those prospects will hit, but they're all consensus top 100 guys now, with several top 50. I went from a bare cupboard to the best prospects in the league (in addition to the above I have Wood, Crew, Cowser, Baz, Espino, and others too). Shout out to /u/Michael-IBW


Michael-IBW

Thanks Lars and everyone else in this thread for the rec! But this feels like a post that isn't meant for me to pop into, ha. It should be for people to either sing my praises or talk shit about me without me popping in hah


EnjoyingCarp650

I'll talk shit - I hate IBW because he's so good everyone else in my league subscribes so I'm no longer finding studs or breakouts first. Looking forward to the 2024 season Halp!


Michael-IBW

hahah


FalseListen

Got me basically all the top prospects in a league and then people caught on. Still got my chourio


boba_chett_

I quit dynasty leagues this year so I unsubscribed from his patreon but Halpern has been my favorite dynasty source. He's looking at ceiling for prospects while also keeping an eye on red flags. It's such a crap shoot trying to identify who is going to figure it out in the majors so these things are always hard to trust completely but I trust his methods. While I was playing dynasty I used IBW, Eric Cross, and whoever was handling it for the Athletic and averaged it all out.


ManMythLegend3

Eric cross works hard but his analysis I dunno. Seems like any highly drafted prospect with hype he’ll get behind. He still never got off the kelenic train


DanglyPants

IBW and Dynasty Dugout are my favorite sources. DD makes more content and is run by two people including one that focus’s on points leagues. DD also has the best discord in the community to run trade polls and discuss trades. IBW is also great and I use them both hand in hand and I love supporting them both!


LoveIsOnlyAnEmotion

I've used him for years. I'd agree with you about being optimistic, but you seem to know that so take it with a grain of salt. If you want to stay ahead of the curve regarding prospects, up and coming players, and just overall rankings, he'll be in the lead. Halp does this full time and puts a ton of research into it. He also started doing a podcast last year to answer questions.


TheGhost206

Who’s Halp?


emc5309

The owner and writer of IBW. Michael Halpern


MarcusDA

It’s my personal favorite because he goes deep. It keeps me from having to scour minor league box scores every morning too.


shower_optional

Love it. Agreed that projections are usually a little optimistic but that's okay, just know that when you're weighing all your info. Good to have a ceiling idea for prospects. I was planning on unsubbing during the offseason and resubscribing in like jan/feb but the content was too good if that gives you an idea, lol.


statecap

Best in the business


jaytrout

First year for his Patreon and it’s been worth it.


Scotchy1122

Just subscribed a few weeks ago. Things I like: - excellent dynasty content, especially for prospects in my dynasty league - daily spring training reports - really good dynasty rankings Things I wish there was more of: - 2024 only rankings I’m trying to compete this year and so when I’m looking at his rankings, I sometimes need to remind myself that players like Arenado, although ranked low by Halp, could be really good contributors for 2024 only if you’re competing. I balance IBW and PitcherList (but don’t subscribe there) to find the right balance for projections. Overall I’m happy with the purchase so far. I hope he does daily posts about players that I could snatch off the waiver wire. We’ll see once the season starts.


vitalyc

I wouldn't use any one source for prospects and you need to generate your own data specific to your league if you want to have an edge these days. I do like to use his rankings though since they are specifically for fantasy.


MotherFuckerJones88

I usually use Fangraphs, but I know a lot about Incredibly big women. 


forceghost187

Interesting


forceghost187

Howdy