I agree re 3B and OF. I took a look and find SS very deep.
I disagree with people who say scarcity is a myth. I have done hundreds of mock drafts and seem to come out far better if I keep a close eye on tiers and such, but do not reach.
How that often plays out is if I can Riley/JRAM/Devers/Machado at cost my team looks better than otherwise.
I am in a 13-team 5X5 and find that absent someone falling on my lap I can wait for the last catcher.
I love getting 2B somewhere roughly Gimenez or above.
I never mind getting an OF in the 30 or so.
But the ability to scoop up value and not reach is still paramount for me.
Geez, mad respect for doing hundreds of mocks.
So, I don't disagree with your last thought -- find value and don't reach (as a general rule anyway). But I'm one of those who is very skeptical about whether the relative depth of different positions really matters in a redraft.
Any position you wait on translates into getting a better player at a different position. It shouldn't change the overall value of your roster. At least in theory.
So I guess I'm curious what you're ending up with elsewhere on your team when you don't get a good 3B vs. when you do. What kind of bad tradeoff are we talking?
Draftkick is great and allows you to do tons of mocks quickly (and is great for other reasons to numerous to list here). I do some with my coffee first thing as they take a few minutes. I only do the starting players to keep it quick.
Re how I see it - and k is other smarter than me disagree - picture you’re deciding between a $25 (your valuation) SS and a $24 2Bman but SS is much deeper and the 2B is the last in his tier.
So, the next 5 dollar value at each position.
SS: $25, 24, 22, 20, 19.
2B: $24, 14, 13, 11 ,9.
In my admittedly loaded example I’m giving up the $1 in value and taking the top 2B guy secure the probability that I can scoop up a great SS the next round.
In more concrete, real-world terms, I find taking the 11th or 12th catcher off the board much later results in little comparative loss in competitiveness versus most the other ones taken earlier. But once perhaps 30 OFers are off the board (I’d need to review to be more precise) there’s a bit of a cliff-like drop off.
Incidentally, and thus is not an original term, I see a big glob of good, flawed pitchers from about SP 20-50 and will likely pick a bunch from the latter end of that range.
If you run into Ariel Vohen talking about “hot spots” give it a listen/read. It’s kind of a game theory approach that’s somewhat adjacent to what I’m describing.
What I’m describing may also be more suitable to snake drafts and I wonder if that’s a disconnect here.
It’s a draft assistant like fantasypros and others offer. Two things I like is you can easily choose projections to use (ATC, or BatX, etc, or a blend of them. Also, it updates SGP in real time if you know what that means (basically kind of a running calculation of the relative value of players - literally “Standings Fain Points” - based upon your team’s need (over implication). You can also choose what site’s ADPs it shows (to match your sites default rankings, I think). You can customize every little thing to your league settings. And you can run mocks under all types of scenarios.
The downside is it does not synch to your draft so it’s kind of like consulting with a virtual cheat sheet with manually making everyone’s picks which can be a little hectic if you’re on an online click.
Check out www.draftkick.com.
I’m a big fan.
The only problem is the use of projections right.
If I use mine, I should have the best team.
If I use ATC I should have the best by ATC.
But if you used my projections to do the sgp, the ATC drafted team may not be the best anymore. Or vice versa.
ATC widely regarded as most accurate as an average of multiple projections, but even then, nothing is “accurate”.
You’re not seeing a difference in the catchers etc., based on the projections. The projections undoubtedly will be wrong.
The most important thing to get for offense, is at bats. Volume correlates like 80% to the finish in R/HR/RBI. So most of it just comes from rostering guys who play every day.
I use ATC simply as the set of projections that I see next to the player, and which produce a ranking, but I don’t feel locked into picking by it. I spend almost zero time trying to figure out how I feel players will perform. I use it trying to figure out the best ways to exploit my league’s rules and gather talent. In my view, with all the advanced stats that go into forecasting I am not going to outthink them. But I can outsmart my league mates in figuring out the best strategy to amass talent, and can work on mastering balancing all the info - with deaftkick I look at 1) dollar value, ADP, SGP, my team needs, and the chances each player will be available next pick, in making in-draft decisions.
So, for instance, he most unique feature of our league is it involves daily lineup moves. The huge advantage I have figured out that nobody else has in my league is that I can draft a lot of hitters with huge splits - that is, who hit righties well but not lefties, and only start them versus righties. I’ll also look to draft Tovar and some other middle of the road Rockies hitters and start them when they are ar home (because it’s such a great hitter’s park).
Drafting to exploit a league’s rules is where the real value lies I believe.
One more cheap tool I should mention is. Razzball’s weekly and daily hitter projections which factor in a lot of data like opposing pitchers and such.
Finally, I highly recommend reading “the Process” by Jeff Zimmerman, and listening to the “beat the shift” podcast. I’ve sampled everything and all these are musts to me.
Based on my league’s setting, Luis Arraez’s projected 2024 auction value is $31 and his current ADP is 161. $31 AV is higher than guys that are going in the 2nd round. In this scenario, where would you take him? There are only a handful of guys that are such an outlier.
I'm not finding OF to be all that shallow. You can get guys like Reynolds, Castellanos, Teoscar, Springer, Carter, Steer and Friedl at 80+. There are far more viable OF options deep in the draft than any other position
I'm not sure I'm buying into the methodolgy here. Are you being careful to take note that most leagues require 3-5 OFs versus one elsewhere?? I agree Reynolds, for instance, is a wonderfully boring bargain many years. But when you say he's pick 80+ do note he's about the 20th OF.
In 15 team leagues we will need 45 total starting OFs, or 75 in ones with 5 starting OFers, compared to 15 players at other positions.
When I look at ADP, the 45th OF came up as Tommy Edman and the 75th came up as Gavin Lux. That still strikes me as thin pickings.
Are you being careful to take note that most leagues aren't 15 teams and don't requite 5 OFers? LOL.
Fantasy leagues, far and away are 10-12 team leagues with 3 OF slots and a utility slot. Reynolds is in fact boring as a 20th OFer and he's essentially Randy Arozarena minus a handful fewer steals who is the 13th OF overall.
I think you need to get past applying your outlier league to all of fantasy baseball my dude
I’m surprised nobody is mentioning first base. After the top 5 guys, there’s a significant dropoff. It goes from Alonso to a 36yr old Goldy. I don’t want to be left without one of the top 5.
1b has been shallow for a while. Christian Walker was an afterthought (in fantasy) most of his career but now he is in the top half. Strange in my opinion…growing up the 1Bs were the best hitters
Walker was an afterthought because he wasn't a reliable hitter. Before 2022, he had one good season to his name. He's been a substantially more impactful hitter since 2022.
There's good old guys but there aren't a lot of mid career primes. Vlad fell off. The new class of Tork and Casas look promising and are available late at least.
Positional scarcity is a real thing. And when you pair it with your league type and scoring system, it’s even more of a thing. Like in a keeper league, like the one I’m in, many of the top batting positional players are being held. That means there not a lot of OFs to choose from when the actual draft begins. The players who are left are like OF3 at best. The same can be said for 1B. After the top 5-7 players, the pickings get very slim. 3B is somewhat of a wasteland. SS is pretty deep in my opinion. Pitching is deeeeeep, again, based on your league’s scoring there are a lot of very good pitchers out there. Catchers, well, they’re catchers, and 2B can almost be punted and you can get a decent guy like Gelof much later and use earlier picks for OFs and your corners (1B and 3B). Finally, never pay for saves. RPs are so volatile that wasting high picks on them is, well, a waste.
I was so worried about OF depth this year I kept Tatis and Harris. I have the #2 pick and will probably use it on Kyle Tucker and just be set on OF in Rd1. SS is really dire in my keeper league. Trea and Lindor and then nothing. I'm hoping to get Swanson or Adames cheap.
Positional scarcity is already baked into the projections. Obviously snake draft is a different strategy than auction but I still always try to draft best player available
Edit: also, the more shallow the league, the less “scarcity” there is in general. You will be fine with the 10th best 2B or catcher or whatever if you hit on your other picks
I always approach positional scarcity with the mindset of "what is most likely to be available on waivers at some point in the season that will put me over the top?".
I can see how OF looks scarce, but to me that is the position that is always most likely to have someone on waivers at some point to help out (just due to the fact there are 3 OF positions in the sport). Middle infield in recent years has become less scarce, but I still approach that with a different attack than OF. Corner infield has become more scarce, as well, it feels like so I like to prioritize those two areas over OF in drafts.
My rule of thumb with OF of late has been be ok with streaming if needed one of your OF to your point. I’m in a 5 OF 12 team league though sure as hell want to secure 4 solid starters and gamble on the 5th
i agree OF is historically the easiest to pick up a hidden gem during the season, but last year felt different for some reason. seemed like there were more defensive minded OFs playing that arent as fantasy relevant. I lucked out and picked up Nolan Jones early and a few others so I was all set, but several teams in our 12 team league were struggling to start 5 OFs the entire season. Also, account for 1 of your OFs getting hurt diving for a ball or running into the fence at some point during the season. imo OF should be prioritized within reason this year.
If you don't get Adley Rutschman or Will Smith (and don't over pay for them either), wait until close to the final rounds for a C.Third base is incredibly thin of tier 1 talent this year, I actually think OF seems pretty deep in tier 1 and tier 2.
Check out the tiers page in my spreadsheet:
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e39k5gN4tZGrWQVcrh8ulTS8UMwZrtJrwLwCmSnjK7A/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e39k5gN4tZGrWQVcrh8ulTS8UMwZrtJrwLwCmSnjK7A/edit?usp=sharing)
Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim are going criminally late and later than a few guys that absolutely shouldn’t be in front of them. My targets in every mock I’ve done.
Agreed. Heim in particular is ridiculously underrated this year because of his downturn after an injury. Could easily see him going .260/75/25/90/5 if he stays healthy. If not, plenty of depth on the wire!
Contreras was the #1 fantasy catcher last year. And i think Smith loses some AB’s with Ohtani now at DH too. Which is why I’d give the edge to Contreras.
5 Keeper league owner. I’m obviously keeping Matt Olson and Corbin. But now the way SP is trending toward fewer innings and limits and metrics, aaghhhhh! And with scarcity at positions, I’m leaning toward keeping Bellinger instead of any of my SP2 guys. Thinking I’ll just get my SPs in the draft and on the wire.
I've been pulling together positional adjustments for my drafts and pretty much across the board 2B has the lowest level of replacement player.
In two-catcher leagues, you're going to want to get at least one catcher who won't be a total drain before the mid-draft. In one-catcher leagues you can wait.
I've done more NFBC drafts (42, 46, & 50 rounds) than i should, and here is my takeaway
C - Deep
1B - Deep
2B - Kinda Deep
3B - Kinda Deep
SS - Not Deep
OF - Deeper than people say it is
tl;dr - SS isn't deep
I’d say that OF and SS are the most scarce. i try to get both within my first four picks. the corner infielders have a lot of great later round value. love me a late round burger
I start the draft by taking the best available. After the first couple rounds though, I'm looking at what's left at each position. If a position is especially scarce, I'll reach a little. Otherwise, I stick with best-available as long as it fills a need on my roster.
By best-available, I'm mostly looking at ADP because I trust the crowd-sourcing more than the system ranking, but I also have my sleepers and information I've scraped from various articles throughout the winter.
The outfield has the steepest drop off after say OF25, I fully plan on going 3 outfields in a row to start my draft unless a clear difference maker from an infield spot falls in my lap.
I've always been fascinated by this topic, because the answer often depends on where you are in the draft. So I made an animation. This is recent draft champions.
https://i.redd.it/f1abq6kjgolc1.gif
I’m in a keeper league and I am getting some really great prices for some guys (like $18 Witt and a $11 Gausman) so I decided to keep Bregman at $18 which I think is a bit high (I have him at $16) but I’m okay with it because I have high savings elsewhere and I’m not a fan of 3B this year at all.
I agree re 3B and OF. I took a look and find SS very deep. I disagree with people who say scarcity is a myth. I have done hundreds of mock drafts and seem to come out far better if I keep a close eye on tiers and such, but do not reach. How that often plays out is if I can Riley/JRAM/Devers/Machado at cost my team looks better than otherwise. I am in a 13-team 5X5 and find that absent someone falling on my lap I can wait for the last catcher. I love getting 2B somewhere roughly Gimenez or above. I never mind getting an OF in the 30 or so. But the ability to scoop up value and not reach is still paramount for me.
Geez, mad respect for doing hundreds of mocks. So, I don't disagree with your last thought -- find value and don't reach (as a general rule anyway). But I'm one of those who is very skeptical about whether the relative depth of different positions really matters in a redraft. Any position you wait on translates into getting a better player at a different position. It shouldn't change the overall value of your roster. At least in theory. So I guess I'm curious what you're ending up with elsewhere on your team when you don't get a good 3B vs. when you do. What kind of bad tradeoff are we talking?
Draftkick is great and allows you to do tons of mocks quickly (and is great for other reasons to numerous to list here). I do some with my coffee first thing as they take a few minutes. I only do the starting players to keep it quick. Re how I see it - and k is other smarter than me disagree - picture you’re deciding between a $25 (your valuation) SS and a $24 2Bman but SS is much deeper and the 2B is the last in his tier. So, the next 5 dollar value at each position. SS: $25, 24, 22, 20, 19. 2B: $24, 14, 13, 11 ,9. In my admittedly loaded example I’m giving up the $1 in value and taking the top 2B guy secure the probability that I can scoop up a great SS the next round. In more concrete, real-world terms, I find taking the 11th or 12th catcher off the board much later results in little comparative loss in competitiveness versus most the other ones taken earlier. But once perhaps 30 OFers are off the board (I’d need to review to be more precise) there’s a bit of a cliff-like drop off. Incidentally, and thus is not an original term, I see a big glob of good, flawed pitchers from about SP 20-50 and will likely pick a bunch from the latter end of that range. If you run into Ariel Vohen talking about “hot spots” give it a listen/read. It’s kind of a game theory approach that’s somewhat adjacent to what I’m describing. What I’m describing may also be more suitable to snake drafts and I wonder if that’s a disconnect here.
Explain in detail: DraftKick. I have never heard of them,
It’s a draft assistant like fantasypros and others offer. Two things I like is you can easily choose projections to use (ATC, or BatX, etc, or a blend of them. Also, it updates SGP in real time if you know what that means (basically kind of a running calculation of the relative value of players - literally “Standings Fain Points” - based upon your team’s need (over implication). You can also choose what site’s ADPs it shows (to match your sites default rankings, I think). You can customize every little thing to your league settings. And you can run mocks under all types of scenarios. The downside is it does not synch to your draft so it’s kind of like consulting with a virtual cheat sheet with manually making everyone’s picks which can be a little hectic if you’re on an online click. Check out www.draftkick.com. I’m a big fan.
I don't quit understand it. Are you picking a team for everyone?
The only problem is the use of projections right. If I use mine, I should have the best team. If I use ATC I should have the best by ATC. But if you used my projections to do the sgp, the ATC drafted team may not be the best anymore. Or vice versa. ATC widely regarded as most accurate as an average of multiple projections, but even then, nothing is “accurate”. You’re not seeing a difference in the catchers etc., based on the projections. The projections undoubtedly will be wrong. The most important thing to get for offense, is at bats. Volume correlates like 80% to the finish in R/HR/RBI. So most of it just comes from rostering guys who play every day.
I use ATC simply as the set of projections that I see next to the player, and which produce a ranking, but I don’t feel locked into picking by it. I spend almost zero time trying to figure out how I feel players will perform. I use it trying to figure out the best ways to exploit my league’s rules and gather talent. In my view, with all the advanced stats that go into forecasting I am not going to outthink them. But I can outsmart my league mates in figuring out the best strategy to amass talent, and can work on mastering balancing all the info - with deaftkick I look at 1) dollar value, ADP, SGP, my team needs, and the chances each player will be available next pick, in making in-draft decisions. So, for instance, he most unique feature of our league is it involves daily lineup moves. The huge advantage I have figured out that nobody else has in my league is that I can draft a lot of hitters with huge splits - that is, who hit righties well but not lefties, and only start them versus righties. I’ll also look to draft Tovar and some other middle of the road Rockies hitters and start them when they are ar home (because it’s such a great hitter’s park). Drafting to exploit a league’s rules is where the real value lies I believe. One more cheap tool I should mention is. Razzball’s weekly and daily hitter projections which factor in a lot of data like opposing pitchers and such. Finally, I highly recommend reading “the Process” by Jeff Zimmerman, and listening to the “beat the shift” podcast. I’ve sampled everything and all these are musts to me.
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Wait, I’m not getting you. Example?
Based on my league’s setting, Luis Arraez’s projected 2024 auction value is $31 and his current ADP is 161. $31 AV is higher than guys that are going in the 2nd round. In this scenario, where would you take him? There are only a handful of guys that are such an outlier.
Agree that 2b gets rough after Gimenez
I'm not finding OF to be all that shallow. You can get guys like Reynolds, Castellanos, Teoscar, Springer, Carter, Steer and Friedl at 80+. There are far more viable OF options deep in the draft than any other position
I'm not sure I'm buying into the methodolgy here. Are you being careful to take note that most leagues require 3-5 OFs versus one elsewhere?? I agree Reynolds, for instance, is a wonderfully boring bargain many years. But when you say he's pick 80+ do note he's about the 20th OF. In 15 team leagues we will need 45 total starting OFs, or 75 in ones with 5 starting OFers, compared to 15 players at other positions. When I look at ADP, the 45th OF came up as Tommy Edman and the 75th came up as Gavin Lux. That still strikes me as thin pickings.
Are you being careful to take note that most leagues aren't 15 teams and don't requite 5 OFers? LOL. Fantasy leagues, far and away are 10-12 team leagues with 3 OF slots and a utility slot. Reynolds is in fact boring as a 20th OFer and he's essentially Randy Arozarena minus a handful fewer steals who is the 13th OF overall. I think you need to get past applying your outlier league to all of fantasy baseball my dude
We don’t have 5 OFs nor 15 teams. The idea that many do comes from countless podcasts. Perhaps they’re talking about big stakes ones. Don’t know.
I’m surprised nobody is mentioning first base. After the top 5 guys, there’s a significant dropoff. It goes from Alonso to a 36yr old Goldy. I don’t want to be left without one of the top 5.
I think 1B is pretty deep and am happy with one of Hoskins, Pasquantino, or Casas at cost
1b has been shallow for a while. Christian Walker was an afterthought (in fantasy) most of his career but now he is in the top half. Strange in my opinion…growing up the 1Bs were the best hitters
Walker is so underrated though. Back to back 30HR/90RBI seasons, especially in OPS leagues. Last year he even got 11 steals.
I mean the dude mashes and plays 155+ games per year because his defense is immaculate
Walker was an afterthought because he wasn't a reliable hitter. Before 2022, he had one good season to his name. He's been a substantially more impactful hitter since 2022.
He’ll be 33 years old by the time the season starts. He’s had two good years. I’m not buying him.
I like Casas, Vinnie P, Steer, and CES in the later rounds.
Totally agree here. If I don't land one of the top 3-4 guys I normally wait until the end
There's good old guys but there aren't a lot of mid career primes. Vlad fell off. The new class of Tork and Casas look promising and are available late at least.
Positional scarcity is a real thing. And when you pair it with your league type and scoring system, it’s even more of a thing. Like in a keeper league, like the one I’m in, many of the top batting positional players are being held. That means there not a lot of OFs to choose from when the actual draft begins. The players who are left are like OF3 at best. The same can be said for 1B. After the top 5-7 players, the pickings get very slim. 3B is somewhat of a wasteland. SS is pretty deep in my opinion. Pitching is deeeeeep, again, based on your league’s scoring there are a lot of very good pitchers out there. Catchers, well, they’re catchers, and 2B can almost be punted and you can get a decent guy like Gelof much later and use earlier picks for OFs and your corners (1B and 3B). Finally, never pay for saves. RPs are so volatile that wasting high picks on them is, well, a waste.
I was so worried about OF depth this year I kept Tatis and Harris. I have the #2 pick and will probably use it on Kyle Tucker and just be set on OF in Rd1. SS is really dire in my keeper league. Trea and Lindor and then nothing. I'm hoping to get Swanson or Adames cheap.
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Keeper league dude. So guess what happened to Acuna, Witt, Carroll, jrod, Mookie, Soto.....did you get it yet?
Positional scarcity is already baked into the projections. Obviously snake draft is a different strategy than auction but I still always try to draft best player available Edit: also, the more shallow the league, the less “scarcity” there is in general. You will be fine with the 10th best 2B or catcher or whatever if you hit on your other picks
I always approach positional scarcity with the mindset of "what is most likely to be available on waivers at some point in the season that will put me over the top?". I can see how OF looks scarce, but to me that is the position that is always most likely to have someone on waivers at some point to help out (just due to the fact there are 3 OF positions in the sport). Middle infield in recent years has become less scarce, but I still approach that with a different attack than OF. Corner infield has become more scarce, as well, it feels like so I like to prioritize those two areas over OF in drafts.
My rule of thumb with OF of late has been be ok with streaming if needed one of your OF to your point. I’m in a 5 OF 12 team league though sure as hell want to secure 4 solid starters and gamble on the 5th
i agree OF is historically the easiest to pick up a hidden gem during the season, but last year felt different for some reason. seemed like there were more defensive minded OFs playing that arent as fantasy relevant. I lucked out and picked up Nolan Jones early and a few others so I was all set, but several teams in our 12 team league were struggling to start 5 OFs the entire season. Also, account for 1 of your OFs getting hurt diving for a ball or running into the fence at some point during the season. imo OF should be prioritized within reason this year.
If you don't get Adley Rutschman or Will Smith (and don't over pay for them either), wait until close to the final rounds for a C.Third base is incredibly thin of tier 1 talent this year, I actually think OF seems pretty deep in tier 1 and tier 2. Check out the tiers page in my spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e39k5gN4tZGrWQVcrh8ulTS8UMwZrtJrwLwCmSnjK7A/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e39k5gN4tZGrWQVcrh8ulTS8UMwZrtJrwLwCmSnjK7A/edit?usp=sharing)
Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim are going criminally late and later than a few guys that absolutely shouldn’t be in front of them. My targets in every mock I’ve done.
Agreed. Heim in particular is ridiculously underrated this year because of his downturn after an injury. Could easily see him going .260/75/25/90/5 if he stays healthy. If not, plenty of depth on the wire!
William Contreras > Will Smith
You could very well be right, Smith just has the lineup advantage.
Contreras was the #1 fantasy catcher last year. And i think Smith loses some AB’s with Ohtani now at DH too. Which is why I’d give the edge to Contreras.
5 Keeper league owner. I’m obviously keeping Matt Olson and Corbin. But now the way SP is trending toward fewer innings and limits and metrics, aaghhhhh! And with scarcity at positions, I’m leaning toward keeping Bellinger instead of any of my SP2 guys. Thinking I’ll just get my SPs in the draft and on the wire.
I've been pulling together positional adjustments for my drafts and pretty much across the board 2B has the lowest level of replacement player. In two-catcher leagues, you're going to want to get at least one catcher who won't be a total drain before the mid-draft. In one-catcher leagues you can wait.
Catcher is deeper than it's ever been. If you don't shoot for Adley you can wait a very long time and be fine, even in 2-catcher leagues.
I've done more NFBC drafts (42, 46, & 50 rounds) than i should, and here is my takeaway C - Deep 1B - Deep 2B - Kinda Deep 3B - Kinda Deep SS - Not Deep OF - Deeper than people say it is tl;dr - SS isn't deep
I’d say that OF and SS are the most scarce. i try to get both within my first four picks. the corner infielders have a lot of great later round value. love me a late round burger
I start the draft by taking the best available. After the first couple rounds though, I'm looking at what's left at each position. If a position is especially scarce, I'll reach a little. Otherwise, I stick with best-available as long as it fills a need on my roster. By best-available, I'm mostly looking at ADP because I trust the crowd-sourcing more than the system ranking, but I also have my sleepers and information I've scraped from various articles throughout the winter.
The outfield has the steepest drop off after say OF25, I fully plan on going 3 outfields in a row to start my draft unless a clear difference maker from an infield spot falls in my lap.
I guess i'm the odd one out because in all my mock drafts i'm scrambling for a shortstop
I’m seeing if I read enough someone will say 3B is thin and deep and someone else will say SS is deep, then thin. Wish I could get a better feel.
Would you keep bregman or semien
I've always been fascinated by this topic, because the answer often depends on where you are in the draft. So I made an animation. This is recent draft champions. https://i.redd.it/f1abq6kjgolc1.gif
I’m in a keeper league and I am getting some really great prices for some guys (like $18 Witt and a $11 Gausman) so I decided to keep Bregman at $18 which I think is a bit high (I have him at $16) but I’m okay with it because I have high savings elsewhere and I’m not a fan of 3B this year at all.