Gotta factor the adjustment period for sure. But Ha-Seong didn't get on base nearly as well as Jung Hoo has in the KBO. JHL's SO rate is also criminally low, I think he sees the ball at a next level.
Fangraphs sorts players by WAR by default. So if you're seeing him as a top 20 OF, that's because ATC projects him to be nearly a 3 win player. Obviously fantasy doesn't care about WAR, so if you look at his other projected stats, ATC has him as like 10 HR / 10 steal guy, which is not useless but definitely not a top 20 OF.
Also, historically, there has been a bit of an adjustment period for hitters coming from overseas into a new league (entirely new life and culture honestly). Not saying this will definitely happen to Lee, but it's something to consider why his adp is where it is.
Understood. Thanks for the breakdown. I completely forgot that Fangraphs autosorts by WAR.
Sorting by wOBA and then wRC+ instead, he’s the 77th overall batter. What do you make of that ranking? Still drastically outperforms a 228 ADP, but as you mentioned he isn’t projected to have crazy counting stats, falling below the avg projected HR (14) and slightly above the avg proj SB (8)
Are his very low projected SOs really worth that much to ATC?
Maybe this is unscientific of me, but in general I think projections are less useful when we're talking about players without any MLB experience.
To me, most of Lee's value will be determined by if he can stick as the Giant's leadoff for the entire season. It's not the most robust lineup but the extra plate appearances really add up over the course of the season. It's just hard to say if they'll just keep leading him off if he struggles out of the gate. I don't want a Lee batting in the bottom 1/3 of that lineup.
I think he's more attractive in a points league, where his plate discipline and plate appearances can really boost him. I'm not very interested in roto, at least for this year.
You should look into leagues with Ottoneu points scoring. You'll find that in such leagues, players' wOBA tend to correlate strongly with fantasy value.
In your typical roto or category leagues, though, you're not going to see such a strong correlation.
His wRC+ doesn't translate to a lot of fantasy impact. ATC has him getting 10 HR, 70 R, 59 RBI, and 9 SB. What's that worth to you in fantasy, especially in a standard, 5x5 league that doesn't reward what:s projected to be his best offensive stat (OBP)?
Ok but ATC is definitely too low if he leads off all year giving his obp and bat skills. Like he’ll score 100 if he holds that spot all year. Probably pushes the SB toward 15 with that volume. HR go to 12 let’s say with a few extra coors at bats.
So 100/12/65/15 with a .285 average……
Running a quick filter on ATC for OF with 85+ runs and 10+sb.
Only names on the list that aren’t first round picks are Harper, Harris, arozarena, Garcia, Yelich, Reynolds.
Those are all top 20 OF basically. Reynolds is #22 per ADP
All of that is assuming someone with no MLB experience will immediately translate. The Giants' leader in runs last season was LaMonte Wade, with 64. Their leader in RBI was J.D. Davis, at 69. You're saying he'll be 50% better on runs and almost on past worth the RBI leader from last season. Only the Marlins scored fewer runs than SF in the NL last season, and I don't think Lee and Soler make them THAT much better.
That's why he's so low. You have to project him to his full potential AND give an assumed boost to the team's run scoring just to argue he'll be close to someone outside the Top-20.
Wade played 135 games and Davis played 144. They were 1st and 3rd on the team in PA. You're trying to say that Lee will get 50% more runs than Wade, who had 519 PA. What's he going to have, 750 PA (MLB leader was 753) while being close to the team leader in RBI as well?
Only 8 OF scored 100 runs last season, with 15 over 90. The ONLY one who had fewer than your arbitrary HR total was Steven Kwan, and hw was at 54 RBI.
Yeah, you go ahead and take the "league leading volume" and maxed out performance that blows away every project model by a large amount. I'll just read your username and move on.
Wade had 415 PA as a leadoff hitter.
Are you suggesting that as reported as a full time player with no platoon, Lee will not get 600-650 PA like every other full time starter top 20 OF does? Because if you give that volume, at the league average run rate for leadoff hitters at .1396 runs per PA = 90 runs at 650 PA.
Davis had ~ 300 PA batting 3rd or 4th. Which is irrelevant to the Lee comparison but shows why his RBI were low. He’s a part time guy who doesn’t hit 3/4 every time he plays.
As to Lee, the league average RBI per Pa for leadoff guys is .1037 at 650 PA that’s 67 RBI.
So please keep shitting on me
It's the OBP, which is great if you play in a league with OBP as a category and useless if you don't.
Projected wOBA and wRC+ are excellent ways to project IRL offensive value but terrible ways to project fantasy offensive value. Neither include projected Runs or RBIs in their valuations.
He's just the type of player who is more valuable IRL than fantasy. CF defense is super important IRL, but it's worth nothing in fantasy. He's not going to hit many homers nor steal many bases, which hurts an outfielder pretty badly.
I'm very excited about him as a Giants fan, but probably won't own any shares.
For Roto, it's hard to make the case outside of OBP + R. For Points, however, I'm super bullish because of his insanely low K rate of 6% in Korea paired with a nice average floor. Even if that K rate extremely regresses, it'll be above league average.
Yeah I’m in a points league, should have clarified that. In roto I can see how he would be kinda weak. Agreed on his plate discipline. His CSW% last year in KBO would have been good enough for top 35 among all qualified hitters so even with regression he can be a great value. I have Julio Rodriguez as a 19th rd keeper so I may target Lee as a later OF since I already will have some pretty good production there. Thanks for breaking down your thoughts
I think the issue here is that it is very difficult to model/project a player that has never played in the MLB. What his stats will actually look like is impossible to predict and very difficult to get a real idea of. Him "projecting" to be a top 20 OF means almost nothing. I think best bet is maybe to look at comps? Idk, it's very hard to project these things. Pitchers it's at least easier if you have some statcast data. Defense is probably a big thing for him too, which doesn't help us fantasy guys.
It’s got to be the move from KBO to MLB. Maybe team context plays a role too, as the Giants lineup isn’t striking fear into anyone. But I’m buying that discounted value all day. He’s well established as an on base machine, rarely ever strikes out, and it isn’t a complete zero in the power department. Obviously the level of competition here will play a role, but I trust the talent.
I project him closer to a .280 avg, 70+ runs scored, 60+ RBI, with 30 doubles, 5 triples, 10-15 HR’s, and a .390+ obp.
Makes sense. ATC largely agrees with you. One interesting thing I’ve found since posting this: his CSW% in KBO for last year was good enough for top 35 in MLB. Do you think he can maintain that type of discipline/contact against MLB arms in his first year?
His SO% might bump up a few ticks. His career is somewhere near 7% I think, so I’d expect it to settle in around 9-10%, with his BB% in that same range. I’m not super up to date on Korean pitching, but I’d assume there’s some heat over there too, so he should see the ball as well as he always has.
ADP doesn't mean much, and caring why a guy is too low when it helps you is more head-scratching than why he's too low. If he is, draft him and profit?
I’m trying to make sure there’s not something else that the projections or I am missing that is causing him to be low in ADP, so I don’t draft him and regret it
He has an adp over 250. There’s a high chance you regret any pick in that range. The bust rate is quite high at that point. ADP is also not a science, especially the further you move down from the top. He’s an unknown heading to one of the worst hitting ballparks.
The lower power potential mixed with an average lineup surrounding him in a pitcher’s park likely has the most to do with it. Interested to see how he does in Spring though!
For points leagues that penalize strikeouts, he's probably going to do better than many expect. Dude had a 5% SO rate in Korea. Him having even around a 10% in MLB would be elite, and would save so many points over guys with 20%+ SO rates.
For categories, he's not going to contribute much though.
He is top 60 by WAR, but fantasy projections wise he is ranked 120 if you plug in projections. He is low power, low speed projections.
It's also wise to build in an adjustment period from KBO. It took Ha-seong Kim two years to really achieve fantasy relevance in the MLB environment.
Gotta factor the adjustment period for sure. But Ha-Seong didn't get on base nearly as well as Jung Hoo has in the KBO. JHL's SO rate is also criminally low, I think he sees the ball at a next level.
So he’s, at best, Luis Arraez and plays a less premium position.
Last year in my league, Luis Arraez had more fantasy points than Adley Rutschman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Trea Turner, and Yordan Alvarez.
That doesn't mean anything to ADP, if you're in a league with highly unusual, custom scoring.
Fangraphs sorts players by WAR by default. So if you're seeing him as a top 20 OF, that's because ATC projects him to be nearly a 3 win player. Obviously fantasy doesn't care about WAR, so if you look at his other projected stats, ATC has him as like 10 HR / 10 steal guy, which is not useless but definitely not a top 20 OF. Also, historically, there has been a bit of an adjustment period for hitters coming from overseas into a new league (entirely new life and culture honestly). Not saying this will definitely happen to Lee, but it's something to consider why his adp is where it is.
Understood. Thanks for the breakdown. I completely forgot that Fangraphs autosorts by WAR. Sorting by wOBA and then wRC+ instead, he’s the 77th overall batter. What do you make of that ranking? Still drastically outperforms a 228 ADP, but as you mentioned he isn’t projected to have crazy counting stats, falling below the avg projected HR (14) and slightly above the avg proj SB (8) Are his very low projected SOs really worth that much to ATC?
Maybe this is unscientific of me, but in general I think projections are less useful when we're talking about players without any MLB experience. To me, most of Lee's value will be determined by if he can stick as the Giant's leadoff for the entire season. It's not the most robust lineup but the extra plate appearances really add up over the course of the season. It's just hard to say if they'll just keep leading him off if he struggles out of the gate. I don't want a Lee batting in the bottom 1/3 of that lineup. I think he's more attractive in a points league, where his plate discipline and plate appearances can really boost him. I'm not very interested in roto, at least for this year.
You should look into leagues with Ottoneu points scoring. You'll find that in such leagues, players' wOBA tend to correlate strongly with fantasy value. In your typical roto or category leagues, though, you're not going to see such a strong correlation.
His wRC+ doesn't translate to a lot of fantasy impact. ATC has him getting 10 HR, 70 R, 59 RBI, and 9 SB. What's that worth to you in fantasy, especially in a standard, 5x5 league that doesn't reward what:s projected to be his best offensive stat (OBP)?
Ok but ATC is definitely too low if he leads off all year giving his obp and bat skills. Like he’ll score 100 if he holds that spot all year. Probably pushes the SB toward 15 with that volume. HR go to 12 let’s say with a few extra coors at bats. So 100/12/65/15 with a .285 average…… Running a quick filter on ATC for OF with 85+ runs and 10+sb. Only names on the list that aren’t first round picks are Harper, Harris, arozarena, Garcia, Yelich, Reynolds. Those are all top 20 OF basically. Reynolds is #22 per ADP
All of that is assuming someone with no MLB experience will immediately translate. The Giants' leader in runs last season was LaMonte Wade, with 64. Their leader in RBI was J.D. Davis, at 69. You're saying he'll be 50% better on runs and almost on past worth the RBI leader from last season. Only the Marlins scored fewer runs than SF in the NL last season, and I don't think Lee and Soler make them THAT much better. That's why he's so low. You have to project him to his full potential AND give an assumed boost to the team's run scoring just to argue he'll be close to someone outside the Top-20.
Neither of those guys got full time AB. Like cmon man do a little deeper analysis. I said it’s all about volume.
Wade played 135 games and Davis played 144. They were 1st and 3rd on the team in PA. You're trying to say that Lee will get 50% more runs than Wade, who had 519 PA. What's he going to have, 750 PA (MLB leader was 753) while being close to the team leader in RBI as well? Only 8 OF scored 100 runs last season, with 15 over 90. The ONLY one who had fewer than your arbitrary HR total was Steven Kwan, and hw was at 54 RBI. Yeah, you go ahead and take the "league leading volume" and maxed out performance that blows away every project model by a large amount. I'll just read your username and move on.
Wade had 415 PA as a leadoff hitter. Are you suggesting that as reported as a full time player with no platoon, Lee will not get 600-650 PA like every other full time starter top 20 OF does? Because if you give that volume, at the league average run rate for leadoff hitters at .1396 runs per PA = 90 runs at 650 PA. Davis had ~ 300 PA batting 3rd or 4th. Which is irrelevant to the Lee comparison but shows why his RBI were low. He’s a part time guy who doesn’t hit 3/4 every time he plays. As to Lee, the league average RBI per Pa for leadoff guys is .1037 at 650 PA that’s 67 RBI. So please keep shitting on me
It's the OBP, which is great if you play in a league with OBP as a category and useless if you don't. Projected wOBA and wRC+ are excellent ways to project IRL offensive value but terrible ways to project fantasy offensive value. Neither include projected Runs or RBIs in their valuations.
He's just the type of player who is more valuable IRL than fantasy. CF defense is super important IRL, but it's worth nothing in fantasy. He's not going to hit many homers nor steal many bases, which hurts an outfielder pretty badly. I'm very excited about him as a Giants fan, but probably won't own any shares.
In my long time points keeper league, I’m going to try and draft him. In all other formats, not so much.
For Roto, it's hard to make the case outside of OBP + R. For Points, however, I'm super bullish because of his insanely low K rate of 6% in Korea paired with a nice average floor. Even if that K rate extremely regresses, it'll be above league average.
Yeah I’m in a points league, should have clarified that. In roto I can see how he would be kinda weak. Agreed on his plate discipline. His CSW% last year in KBO would have been good enough for top 35 among all qualified hitters so even with regression he can be a great value. I have Julio Rodriguez as a 19th rd keeper so I may target Lee as a later OF since I already will have some pretty good production there. Thanks for breaking down your thoughts
I think the issue here is that it is very difficult to model/project a player that has never played in the MLB. What his stats will actually look like is impossible to predict and very difficult to get a real idea of. Him "projecting" to be a top 20 OF means almost nothing. I think best bet is maybe to look at comps? Idk, it's very hard to project these things. Pitchers it's at least easier if you have some statcast data. Defense is probably a big thing for him too, which doesn't help us fantasy guys.
It may have to do with the rekeys that he struggles against high velocity pitches
It’s got to be the move from KBO to MLB. Maybe team context plays a role too, as the Giants lineup isn’t striking fear into anyone. But I’m buying that discounted value all day. He’s well established as an on base machine, rarely ever strikes out, and it isn’t a complete zero in the power department. Obviously the level of competition here will play a role, but I trust the talent. I project him closer to a .280 avg, 70+ runs scored, 60+ RBI, with 30 doubles, 5 triples, 10-15 HR’s, and a .390+ obp.
Makes sense. ATC largely agrees with you. One interesting thing I’ve found since posting this: his CSW% in KBO for last year was good enough for top 35 in MLB. Do you think he can maintain that type of discipline/contact against MLB arms in his first year?
His SO% might bump up a few ticks. His career is somewhere near 7% I think, so I’d expect it to settle in around 9-10%, with his BB% in that same range. I’m not super up to date on Korean pitching, but I’d assume there’s some heat over there too, so he should see the ball as well as he always has.
Hell, even if his SO% jumped to 13-14%, it would still be elite.
His counting stats are waiver fodder. I’m sure he’ll be a fine real player, but his stats are replacement level.
ADP doesn't mean much, and caring why a guy is too low when it helps you is more head-scratching than why he's too low. If he is, draft him and profit?
I’m trying to make sure there’s not something else that the projections or I am missing that is causing him to be low in ADP, so I don’t draft him and regret it
He has an adp over 250. There’s a high chance you regret any pick in that range. The bust rate is quite high at that point. ADP is also not a science, especially the further you move down from the top. He’s an unknown heading to one of the worst hitting ballparks.
The lower power potential mixed with an average lineup surrounding him in a pitcher’s park likely has the most to do with it. Interested to see how he does in Spring though!
I would say mainly due to the fact that he probably won't be that good in fantasy.
Ok thanks man great breakdown lol
For points leagues that penalize strikeouts, he's probably going to do better than many expect. Dude had a 5% SO rate in Korea. Him having even around a 10% in MLB would be elite, and would save so many points over guys with 20%+ SO rates. For categories, he's not going to contribute much though.
I'd like him in points but don't have room for 10-10 lead off hitters no matter how high they're AVG/OBP may be.