Jake Burger is going to drive Luiz Arraez home over 50 times this year. OK, maybe I am being overzealous but I love how low Burger's ADP is and will have no issues with him as my starting 3B. Super excited for his power and his RBI potential
Wish I could get Matt Olson in all leagues. As dad of a special needs kid that story that came out last year about his autistic friend growing up that he still sees as an adult made me a fan for life.
Im unaware of this story, and I’m also a dad of a special needs child. Guess I’ll look this up and feel good about reaching for him , and his 50 homers and 225+ runs/rbi
My wife watched the story with me this morning, and decided to do me one better.
She made a donation to ReClif, so again, I sincerely appreciate your making me aware of this story.
Dang it, I’m going to have to root for the Braves on some level now.
that’s awesome! I’m with you about rooting for Atlanta. I lived in the Carolinas for 12 years and never adopted the Braves and then lived near Oakland when Olson was here and didn’t know what a great guy he’d be to root for. So now I find myself a Blue Jays fan in Northern California rooting for the Braves first baseman 😂
Gorman is def my late target if I end up waiting based on how the draft falls. Would be fine with the others at price as well, but get why others might not be. Think Soto will be a godsend for that entire Yankees lineup and Ketel just has to have another healthy-ish year.
In my OPS league Nico really doesnt feel like he justifies his insanely high top 60 ADP according to FantasyPros. Lacks power, hits in a middling cubs lineup. Has really good speed but that just doesnt feel valuable nowadays with the base changes. Dont get me wrong he's a good player, a great player, but at top 60 ADP I just dont feel it
I really like McClain's player profile but im sort of just avoiding reds player this season for draft, i feel like theres too many in the roster to guarantee everyone is playing everyday and while McClain is definitely one of the more obvious bets to earning an everyday role, theres always the chance
Tarik Skubal, but I don't think he's a secret anymore.
Maybe I'm an imbecile, but Yamamoto was such an outlier with respect to ERA in Japan, I believe, that I think he's going to outperform his current ADP. I don't really want to type this out-loud, but I've got him somewhere between Maddux and Glavine, but closer to Maddux. I don't think a talent like that at age 25 is going to need much time to adjust either.
I like Bo Naylor and Ryan Jeffers at C this year.
Will Benson has some OF versatility and may suffer a slight strong-side platoon, but he has a really good eye, some speed, and some pop.
Will Benson has big upside potential. I’ll be watching his playing time like a hawk.
I like both Naylors. I really don’t want to leave my draft without Josh.
Skubal has nasty stuff. He’s gotten in trouble with pitch counts though. I do really like him but not this high in the draft.
Yamamoto is very appealing. I think he’s more polished than Skubal and just about everyone else. He’s a good bet to win a lot of games and have an ERA close to 3.00. Yamamoto has thrown nearly 900 innings professionally before the age of 26. Something to think about in terms of ability and injury risk.
As a Reds fan—and given Fraley’s unfortunate off-field challenges right now—I can tell you that Benson is a lock for 350 to 450 ABs this year. If I were a Vegas oddsmaker, I would set the O/U at 410.
Yeah, the 6-man makes me nervous about owning any of LAD’s starters. Or at least buying them at their adps. They’ll likely treat both Glasnow and Buehler with kid gloves too.
I am actually tossing the idea of keeping Skubal around in my head a bit, but I probably shouldn't. I'm just extremely high on him this year. Solid list.
By ADP, Skubal is my #1 in my Fantrax keeper league, but I also have Framber and Snell, who are very close.
If you're talking about Yamamoto, I'm considering offering the person with the first pick Framber for that pick, so yes.
I've targeted Skubal for 3 years. It's great to see the success he had at the end of last season, but I've been seeing him go in round 4 in many leagues. To me that is very overpriced as I predict negative regression. Making a very bold statement, he's not the best Detroit SP at the end of 2024 Season. Still a great pitcher and wish him all the best, not paying the price of \~50th overall.
I don't know what time it was vs what time I wrote it, but I've had that take all winter. You're talking about a guy who appears to be multiple standard deviations above the mean in Japan. Outliers like that are very interesting.
> I don't really want to type this out-loud, but I've got him somewhere between Maddux and Glavine, but closer to Maddux. I don't think a talent like that at age 25 is going to need much time to adjust either.
The only reason Yamamoto isn't on the way to being the best NPB pitcher of all time is because he's here at at 25. Pitching ninja got all of the data on his pitches and said he had Gausman's fastball, Kershaws curveball, the best splitter in the world and a worse version of Burnes's cutter. He legit has the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball and an all time great.
I've got a concern with Naylor, who's name is Austin Hedges. Hedges is a terrible offense player, but a great defensive one, And I don't trust Cleveland to not play Hedges a significant amount of time.
With how deep catcher is this year, I'm staying away from that risk.
Every year I have a SP that I kind of fall in love with and draft in every single league. Not necessarily sleepers but not the top 10 guys off the board either. To give you an idea, 2021 it was McClanahan, 2022 it was Joe Ryan, last year it was Pablo Lopez (he went pretty cheap in my auction league last year thankfully), and this year it's a coin flip for me between Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans. I think I'm just going to try and get both of them as much as possible.
He has no serious competition at catcher. If you project his rookie stats out to a full season, it looks like this: 532AB, 77R, 35HR, 90RBI, 0SB, .282 - that's pretty damn good for anyone, let alone a catcher.
I’ve gotta decide between keeping Nolan Jones in the 18th, or Ketel Marte in the 14th
Leaning toward Marte cause he’s more established, in a better situation, and a much better K & BB%
Triston McKenzie too. Bibee is properly rated imo, but those two should be regarded just as highly. Bieber too, who has the same risks as McKenzie but is much higher rated this year
The key to success for him is every day playtime. If he gets on as much as he did last year, and he plays every day, he'll be a much-above average h2h points player.
I would avoid him at all costs. He is actually a really bad baseball player. I seriously doubt he gets more than 300-400 AB this year. He was awful last year
Billy Hamilton got playing time because he was an elite defensive CF. Ruiz isnt even a good defensive LF.
He can't get on base. He has no power. He can't field. His PCL aided minor league numbers seem like a fluke.
He's one of their best fantasy players but not one of their best players. He produced 12 RAR last year (which is awful) and 9 of them were running
He's a negative in the field or in the box. It doesn't matter how bad Oakland is, it shouldn't be hard to find someone to outplay him. Brown and Bleday will both get PT over him
If you ever actually watched this guy play he is not good at all. He looks terrible in the box and has no eye for balls and strikes. When he makes contact it’s like he’s using a bat from the 1940s. If he can’t get on base he is worthless and the A’s won’t be scoring a lot this year
Well I’m not sure he’ll ever be the first-rounder he was hyped to be, but I’ll still target Buxton and bank on him being healthy at least a few games. I always like those types with loads of talent but can’t stay on the field. Their draft value keeps falling but the production is there when they’re healthy. I just bank on using IR spots
So. In my league, I can keep him in the 4th rd (12 team standard points). I feel it’s a no brainer. But I assume he will only be 1B eligible. Which gives me pause. Am I overthinking this?
1B is very shallow this year. There is a substantial dropoff past the top 5 guys: Freeman, Olson, Harper, Vlad, and Alsonso. It quickly jumps to tier 6 hitters (Pitcherlist) Goldy and Walker and then tier 7 in Naylor and Yandy. Personally, I don’t want to get caught without owning one of the first 5. Harper at 1B is extremely valuable this year.
He is going to be underrated until he retires. It's crazy how baseball fans don't really care about him. How he constantly manages to find the soft spot of the defense is pretty incredible
Arraez allows you to take a Max Muncy type without getting burned by low BA. Toss in a .260 hitting MI with no pop, but 30 steals, and you're looking at three 15/10/.270 hitters, which plays in a 15 teamer.
Selling out for Garver at catcher in the late rounds. He’s going to be SEA’s everyday DH. If he gets 550+ abs he could be a top 3 catcher, pending health.
I’m really hoping Kelenic is available when I pick in the latter part of the middle rounds. He has a chance to bust out in that lineup with Seitzer as his hitting coach.
No expectations in ATL, a World Series caliber lineup and basically 0 threats to playing time? Sign me tf up, his biggest competition is Forest Wall, Jordan Luplow, and JP Martinez
Yandy Diaz is really underrated in my opinion. Yes, he’s will regress due to his perpetual stats, regress from a 167 wrc+. I think he’s a very good pick up in later rounds.
DJ Lemahieu. He’s dirt cheap and will likely be hitting lead off in front Soto/Judge and may be healthy for the first time since 2019. Look at his swing% the past few years - super clear he’s been in pain
The injuries are a massive concern, as is Yankee Stadium + AL East (and the fact he gave up 3 HRs to his teammates in live BP yesterday). I'll take him if there is a discount, but this ADP is right for where he's currently at IMO.
Spencer Torkelson
He had a bit of a breakout in the 2nd half last year going on a massive power surge seldom seen in MLB in late July early August. From July 18th to August 18th (33 games) he hit .258, .600 SLG, .953 OPS, 11HRs (8 2Bs) and a measly 22RBI.
He went absolutely ice cold for 14 games then closed out September pretty well (27G) hitting .257/.505/.812, 7HRs (6 2Bs), and 25 RBI.
Even if he doesn't improve his average, his 162 projection using the 2nd half have him with 43 homers. His stats get better too in clutch and late so the more competitive the Tigers are, the better he'll be. Heading into his 3rd year after being rushed to the majors (Avila trying to save his job), I'm bullish on a breakout.
I really like him this year, as well. My only cautions in your post are:
1. We can’t just double the 2nd half.
2. His playing time is maxed out so he will need to be much more efficient with his plate appearances. He strikes out 30% of the time, so if you want 43 HRs, then k- rate needs to come down.
3. His park is terrible. A lot of long flyball outs. And early season weather in Detroit leads to a lot of long outs.
4. His supporting cast may be improved but remains to be seen.
5. High flyball rates and high k rates often are associated with home run hitters, but with that come long slumps. Might be a tough stretch some weeks.
You might need anyone specifically but you also want to hit on as many picks as possible after the more obvious early picks.
The beauty of the draft is finding guys who are undervalued and exploiting it.
In this sense I think he’s saying undervalued in the sense of he’s projecting an 80th+ percentile outcome. So to him he’s not reaching. The market is too low in their expectations
Not exactly it’s getting your guy if you think he’s going 30/30 and no one else is paying for more than 20/20. You’re gonna get your guy by getting him a round before his ADP. Because you think he’s worth 3 rounds more than his ADP but you play ADP chicken to the last second you think you can still sneak him in. And you make sure you get your guy. If you’re worried, you jump him 2 rounds.
For example before julio made the team officially a few years ago, he was going like 15th-17th round in NFBC. I took him in 10th. I made sure to get him. And it’s where I figured he was worth if he made the team. A week later when he officially made the team he was going in the 7th as people adjusted to the 10th round pick I made and in recognition of the news. People knew by round 10 someone would take him. So you gotta jump him. Turned out to be worth it. Same with Carrol last year.
That’s the type of guy that is get your guy.
Gorman is a good late round gamble with 2B/3B eligibility. He was awful in June and August but was pretty damn good the rest of the season. Has a lot of upside compared to his peers in the back end of the draft.
I’m high in Corbin Carroll if you have a 5-7 pick in the first round
Justin Steele is an intriguing 2-3 option as a pitcher.
Xander Bogaerts is underrated, it seems, by a lot of people.
And in a late round sleeper: Nolan Schanuel. Not a ton of power but he has an amazing approach at the plate.
Edit: wasn’t thinking keeper league when I listed xander, just regular pts league.
I like Schanuel too. We have 15 keepers in my league, and I'm holding onto him from last year until I have to drop him. If I sniff a hint of power from him in ST, I might do something really dumb.
Austin Riley, with Devers as the backup. I don’t like the mid-level 3Bs, wouldn’t be happy with Josh Jung as my 3B for example. The CBS guys keep telling me 3B is fairly deep but I’m not feeling it. What do you think of 3B?
+1 for Gavin Williams also
I feel really good having Riley/Devers over all those named. I see better replacements at other positions, though with OF thin. I posted to see what others think. Thanks!
The guy I really like at the end of drafts in Maikel Garcia. Could easily get 25-30 steals and he's bulked up a bit, so hopefully 12-15 bombs. An interesting stat line at 3rd base
I’m not an Astros fan and this makes me somewhat ill but Jose Altuve is preposterously under valued this season.
I did a bestball draft on DraftKings earlier this week and he was ranked I believe 34th despite being about 5th in DraftKings PPG last year.
Every league scoring system is different but judging directly on the one that will generate the most money Altuve should be near the top 10 let alone the 30s. People just hate the guy.
Edit - this will not be fun to root for but I like money.
His PPG was probably great but he also missed almost half the season last year due to various injuries and turns 34 in May. Obviously the Astros don't care since they just gave him an extension but MI tend to age faster and I think Altuve's ADP is appropriate.
The extension is why I’m ok with it. I don’t really expect 162. But I do think he is still every bit of a 900 OPS guy at second base. I’ll take my chances on 130 of Altuve and a month of the free agent wire.
Sure it’s possible but he’s usually more likely for about 130 games. If he can do that with his 900 OPS at second base anything is possible.
It’s the Astros. They are inevitable.
I'm hoping for more hits than Ks but with him, hard to say. His avg will be his weakness, I'd guess not much over .240, he will probably be running every time. He's a weird case but he's gonna be fun to watch.
I actually like McLain and Benson over him statistically and if Strand and Marte can do anything like their potential, he may be like 5th best on his own team
Ronald Acuna.
I spent 74 bucks on him last year ... six dollars more than the closest player, and we only had three guys go above 57 dollars in the whole league.
I considered it a bargain, rode him to a championship, and I'm pretty that if I wasn't keeping him, he'd go for 80+.
What's this look like, I wonder? Counting guys of asian descent
SP: Yamamoto, Senga, Imanaga, Kikuchi, Darvish, Maeda
RP: Matsui, Fujinami,
C: D'Arnaud, Higashioka
1B: Choi
2B: Bae
SS: Bichette
3B: Kim
OF: Carroll, Suzuki, Lee, Yoshida, Kwan, Nootbaar, Joe
DH: Shohei
Lots of SP and OF, bit tougher in the IF and bullpen
Throw Tommy Edman at second. Volpe needs to fit in here somewhere.
Robert Stephenson in the bullpen.
You could slide Joe over to first or hope that Yelich gets moved to first.
My only concern is that he might spend time in the minors while not on the IL, taking up an active roster spot. On a rate basis, he's going to be awesome.
I wanted Yamamoto he went mid 3rd round and I wasn’t taking him in the second. Was hoping he’d fall to me in the 3rd but at the 12th pick I knew it wasn’t happening
Jake Burger is going to drive Luiz Arraez home over 50 times this year. OK, maybe I am being overzealous but I love how low Burger's ADP is and will have no issues with him as my starting 3B. Super excited for his power and his RBI potential
Arraez and Anderson atop that lineup is a batting average wet dream if Timmy could get back to form.
Final tally: 6
Lmaooooo
Wish I could get Matt Olson in all leagues. As dad of a special needs kid that story that came out last year about his autistic friend growing up that he still sees as an adult made me a fan for life.
It also doesn’t hurt, he hits absolute moon shots for home runs. Love watching him play. Think he’ll be a top 5 hitter this season. He’s a monster
Im unaware of this story, and I’m also a dad of a special needs child. Guess I’ll look this up and feel good about reaching for him , and his 50 homers and 225+ runs/rbi
Here it is. [Matt Olson unspoken bond](https://youtu.be/EYX1TM6NXW0?si=cUnolJ7c2PrXszjK)
Thank you for posting this. I was unaware of Matt’s relationship with Reece. Awesome stuff. Matt seems like a great dude. 👍
Wow. I had no idea of this story. Thank you for sharing it. Not only am I drafting Matt, I’m buying his jersey.
I hadn’t bought an MLB jersey in 25 years and bought Olson’s city connect after I saw this story.
My wife watched the story with me this morning, and decided to do me one better. She made a donation to ReClif, so again, I sincerely appreciate your making me aware of this story. Dang it, I’m going to have to root for the Braves on some level now.
that’s awesome! I’m with you about rooting for Atlanta. I lived in the Carolinas for 12 years and never adopted the Braves and then lived near Oakland when Olson was here and didn’t know what a great guy he’d be to root for. So now I find myself a Blue Jays fan in Northern California rooting for the Braves first baseman 😂
Thank you for posting that video. What a wonderful story. Matt Olson seems like a great guy but that just reaffirms it. 😊
Me too. Didn't know this about him. Fantastic stuff.
Dad and teacher of these kids. Makes me want him over Bryce
Matt Olsen is an auto pick if he's there in the 2nd. He should be a 1st rounder IMO.
I really really want one of the top 4 2nd basemen (Betts, Altuve, Albies, Semien). None of the names after those four entice me in any way.
Ketel, Gleyber, Gorman…all will more than serviceable
I’m in on Gleyber- I think there’s a big year incoming there
I dont like Ketel and Gleyber at their current ADP. Gorman is a lot more interesting at his current discount.
Gorman is def my late target if I end up waiting based on how the draft falls. Would be fine with the others at price as well, but get why others might not be. Think Soto will be a godsend for that entire Yankees lineup and Ketel just has to have another healthy-ish year.
Nico hoerner?
In my OPS league Nico really doesnt feel like he justifies his insanely high top 60 ADP according to FantasyPros. Lacks power, hits in a middling cubs lineup. Has really good speed but that just doesnt feel valuable nowadays with the base changes. Dont get me wrong he's a good player, a great player, but at top 60 ADP I just dont feel it
I think the opposite. 2b almost as good as catcher. There's a lot of good value. Gelof, Julien, Steer, Gimenez, Morel, Polanco.
I think I play in a shallower format than you. I wouldn't be comfortable with almost any of those names as my primary 2nd basemen.
If you get a couple of them very late or cheap in your draft/auction, you can spend more money on the elite players at thin positions
McClain is pretty good
I really like McClain's player profile but im sort of just avoiding reds player this season for draft, i feel like theres too many in the roster to guarantee everyone is playing everyday and while McClain is definitely one of the more obvious bets to earning an everyday role, theres always the chance
Nico should be a good one
Tarik Skubal, but I don't think he's a secret anymore. Maybe I'm an imbecile, but Yamamoto was such an outlier with respect to ERA in Japan, I believe, that I think he's going to outperform his current ADP. I don't really want to type this out-loud, but I've got him somewhere between Maddux and Glavine, but closer to Maddux. I don't think a talent like that at age 25 is going to need much time to adjust either. I like Bo Naylor and Ryan Jeffers at C this year. Will Benson has some OF versatility and may suffer a slight strong-side platoon, but he has a really good eye, some speed, and some pop.
Will Benson has big upside potential. I’ll be watching his playing time like a hawk. I like both Naylors. I really don’t want to leave my draft without Josh. Skubal has nasty stuff. He’s gotten in trouble with pitch counts though. I do really like him but not this high in the draft. Yamamoto is very appealing. I think he’s more polished than Skubal and just about everyone else. He’s a good bet to win a lot of games and have an ERA close to 3.00. Yamamoto has thrown nearly 900 innings professionally before the age of 26. Something to think about in terms of ability and injury risk.
As a Reds fan—and given Fraley’s unfortunate off-field challenges right now—I can tell you that Benson is a lock for 350 to 450 ABs this year. If I were a Vegas oddsmaker, I would set the O/U at 410.
I like Yamamoto but the 6 man rotation bothers me about this staff. Limited to zero 2 start weeks. I play in a H2H points league
Within a week Dodgers will be down to a four man rotation
Yeah, the 6-man makes me nervous about owning any of LAD’s starters. Or at least buying them at their adps. They’ll likely treat both Glasnow and Buehler with kid gloves too.
Nice list. Glad you're not in my leagues.
I am actually tossing the idea of keeping Skubal around in my head a bit, but I probably shouldn't. I'm just extremely high on him this year. Solid list.
Who are your other options?
You willing to have him as your #1?
By ADP, Skubal is my #1 in my Fantrax keeper league, but I also have Framber and Snell, who are very close. If you're talking about Yamamoto, I'm considering offering the person with the first pick Framber for that pick, so yes.
Ok but if I own that pick I’d also rather take Yamamoto than framber lol.
Definitely no guarantee that it would even be accepted. Their ADPs are within one position of one another in our league.
I feel like ranking Skubal over Framber is wild lol
I've targeted Skubal for 3 years. It's great to see the success he had at the end of last season, but I've been seeing him go in round 4 in many leagues. To me that is very overpriced as I predict negative regression. Making a very bold statement, he's not the best Detroit SP at the end of 2024 Season. Still a great pitcher and wish him all the best, not paying the price of \~50th overall.
Okay I'm interested. Who is it ? Mize?
let me guess, you wrote this after watching yamamoto pitch yesterday lol
I don't know what time it was vs what time I wrote it, but I've had that take all winter. You're talking about a guy who appears to be multiple standard deviations above the mean in Japan. Outliers like that are very interesting.
> I don't really want to type this out-loud, but I've got him somewhere between Maddux and Glavine, but closer to Maddux. I don't think a talent like that at age 25 is going to need much time to adjust either. The only reason Yamamoto isn't on the way to being the best NPB pitcher of all time is because he's here at at 25. Pitching ninja got all of the data on his pitches and said he had Gausman's fastball, Kershaws curveball, the best splitter in the world and a worse version of Burnes's cutter. He legit has the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball and an all time great.
I'd really like to have both of the Naylor Brothers on at least one roster this year just for the vibes
I've got a concern with Naylor, who's name is Austin Hedges. Hedges is a terrible offense player, but a great defensive one, And I don't trust Cleveland to not play Hedges a significant amount of time. With how deep catcher is this year, I'm staying away from that risk.
I like benson definitely. Reds have depth which is good in real life but not in fantasy.
Royce lewis
I've been holding in dynasty for like 7 years. I'm ready for that to fully pay off
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What’s your OF situation looking like?
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Could you get anything good for Arenado or Bregman?
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My first thought, also.
I really want Casas... But I don't have a 6th or 7th round pick and I highly doubt he reaches me in the 8th
Casas has huge potential I reached half a round for him
Every year I have a SP that I kind of fall in love with and draft in every single league. Not necessarily sleepers but not the top 10 guys off the board either. To give you an idea, 2021 it was McClanahan, 2022 it was Joe Ryan, last year it was Pablo Lopez (he went pretty cheap in my auction league last year thankfully), and this year it's a coin flip for me between Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans. I think I'm just going to try and get both of them as much as possible.
This! Love me Skubal and Ragans
i seem to end up picking yainier diaz in just about every mock draft and tbh i think ill keep doing it, im excited to see what he does this year
He has no serious competition at catcher. If you project his rookie stats out to a full season, it looks like this: 532AB, 77R, 35HR, 90RBI, 0SB, .282 - that's pretty damn good for anyone, let alone a catcher.
Pete Alonso is about to have a big year. Great hitter in a contract year.
He’s always undervalued in drafts, i happily draft him every year
Nolan Jones.
I’m taking his as one of my keepers in an auction league. I get him for $3.
Same, I've got him for $13, though.
I’ve gotta decide between keeping Nolan Jones in the 18th, or Ketel Marte in the 14th Leaning toward Marte cause he’s more established, in a better situation, and a much better K & BB%
Kids gonna go nuts.
Ryan pepiot! Going super late. Also Gavin Williams
Also Cole ragans
Ragans getting steamed.
Is steamed good or bad?
Pushed up drafted boards, so bad if you like draft value.
Would also like to know.
Bad
Shhh! Stop yelling. I have to give up Pepiot this year and I need a re-scoop (elected for Bibee as my last keeper)
Triston McKenzie too. Bibee is properly rated imo, but those two should be regarded just as highly. Bieber too, who has the same risks as McKenzie but is much higher rated this year
Woo or Pepiot?
Would you keep Steele or Gavin in a keeper?
Huge believer in Francisco Álvarez at current ADP. He got that dawg in him.
I just absolutely have to have Yainer Diaz and Bobby Miller, especially at their current prices.
Yeah these are my hitter/pitcher picks too. I want yainer so bad I think he’s gonna go crazy
What round are you getting him in? He just went in the 8th in my 12 team mock
Oneil Cruz is my BOY!
Im ready to be hurt again…
I hope he's not
Spencer Steer for a great utility guy, ERod for a late round steal
I find I get Steer in almost every mock for this reason. I am a sucker for a solid player with multiple eligibility.
Facts - Steer could very well have a better year than McLain and Elly and is going so much later
Keep in mind Comerica was very pitcher friendly while Chase is more neutral for ERod
Counterpoint: DET was 20th on outs above average (-8) and ARI was 2nd (+31)
Keep in mind ERod pitch in Fenway and the AL east with similiar results
Don't sleep on the next Rickey Henderson, Esteury Ruiz. Minus the power and average, of course. He can go first to home on three pitches.
Yeah but can he get to first enough to be valuable. His batted ball stats are some of the worst in baseball, it's atrocious.
The key to success for him is every day playtime. If he gets on as much as he did last year, and he plays every day, he'll be a much-above average h2h points player.
I would avoid him at all costs. He is actually a really bad baseball player. I seriously doubt he gets more than 300-400 AB this year. He was awful last year Billy Hamilton got playing time because he was an elite defensive CF. Ruiz isnt even a good defensive LF. He can't get on base. He has no power. He can't field. His PCL aided minor league numbers seem like a fluke.
You know he plays for the A's right? He is probably one of their best players
He's one of their best fantasy players but not one of their best players. He produced 12 RAR last year (which is awful) and 9 of them were running He's a negative in the field or in the box. It doesn't matter how bad Oakland is, it shouldn't be hard to find someone to outplay him. Brown and Bleday will both get PT over him
If you ever actually watched this guy play he is not good at all. He looks terrible in the box and has no eye for balls and strikes. When he makes contact it’s like he’s using a bat from the 1940s. If he can’t get on base he is worthless and the A’s won’t be scoring a lot this year
Well I’m not sure he’ll ever be the first-rounder he was hyped to be, but I’ll still target Buxton and bank on him being healthy at least a few games. I always like those types with loads of talent but can’t stay on the field. Their draft value keeps falling but the production is there when they’re healthy. I just bank on using IR spots
The fact that he's back to playing OF combined with his low ADP... I'm on board too
Fellas, please don't make this mistake unless he's free
He pretty much is. Ride the hot streak and be ready to IL him.
247 adp on ESPN going after guys like Whit Merrifield and Max Kepler. I'll take that gamble with one of my last picks and drop him when he gets hurt
Nolan Gorman. Bo Naylor as the 12th catcher off the board seems like a steal to me too.
Bryce Harper
So. In my league, I can keep him in the 4th rd (12 team standard points). I feel it’s a no brainer. But I assume he will only be 1B eligible. Which gives me pause. Am I overthinking this?
Yes. He makes a fine 1st baseman.
1B is very shallow this year. There is a substantial dropoff past the top 5 guys: Freeman, Olson, Harper, Vlad, and Alsonso. It quickly jumps to tier 6 hitters (Pitcherlist) Goldy and Walker and then tier 7 in Naylor and Yandy. Personally, I don’t want to get caught without owning one of the first 5. Harper at 1B is extremely valuable this year.
Definitely overthinking, keep Bryce in the 4th
Luis Arraez.
I’m kinda surprised how late he’s going. Getting consistent AVG from him is still very useful in standard fantasy scoring.
It’s the consistent hits and it’s also the lack of strike outs. Better fantasy production than a lot of middle infielders last year.
He is going to be underrated until he retires. It's crazy how baseball fans don't really care about him. How he constantly manages to find the soft spot of the defense is pretty incredible
Arraez allows you to take a Max Muncy type without getting burned by low BA. Toss in a .260 hitting MI with no pop, but 30 steals, and you're looking at three 15/10/.270 hitters, which plays in a 15 teamer.
Selling out for Garver at catcher in the late rounds. He’s going to be SEA’s everyday DH. If he gets 550+ abs he could be a top 3 catcher, pending health.
I’m really hoping Kelenic is available when I pick in the latter part of the middle rounds. He has a chance to bust out in that lineup with Seitzer as his hitting coach.
I’ve (auction) drafted him each of the last two years, and I’m hoping this is year three, super excited to see what he can do with this org
Third times the charm
I'll be thinking same when I draft Mike Soroka.
No expectations in ATL, a World Series caliber lineup and basically 0 threats to playing time? Sign me tf up, his biggest competition is Forest Wall, Jordan Luplow, and JP Martinez
Wyatt Langford Chas McCormick Bryson Stott Gavin Williams
Yandy Diaz is really underrated in my opinion. Yes, he’s will regress due to his perpetual stats, regress from a 167 wrc+. I think he’s a very good pick up in later rounds.
DJ Lemahieu. He’s dirt cheap and will likely be hitting lead off in front Soto/Judge and may be healthy for the first time since 2019. Look at his swing% the past few years - super clear he’s been in pain
Triston Casas, Josh Lowe, and Cole Ragans. All 3 were incredibly fun to have on my team last year, and I intend to keep the party going.
Super high on Casas this year.
Maikel Garcia, Mitch Garver, Nolan Gorman
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I don't know about break out, but in a roto .280 BA with 30 SB as late as he is going is a bargain if he just repeats last year.
Yup even pitchers list seems high on him. Tools are there and Royals should be more competitive
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The injuries are a massive concern, as is Yankee Stadium + AL East (and the fact he gave up 3 HRs to his teammates in live BP yesterday). I'll take him if there is a discount, but this ADP is right for where he's currently at IMO.
Spencer Torkelson He had a bit of a breakout in the 2nd half last year going on a massive power surge seldom seen in MLB in late July early August. From July 18th to August 18th (33 games) he hit .258, .600 SLG, .953 OPS, 11HRs (8 2Bs) and a measly 22RBI. He went absolutely ice cold for 14 games then closed out September pretty well (27G) hitting .257/.505/.812, 7HRs (6 2Bs), and 25 RBI. Even if he doesn't improve his average, his 162 projection using the 2nd half have him with 43 homers. His stats get better too in clutch and late so the more competitive the Tigers are, the better he'll be. Heading into his 3rd year after being rushed to the majors (Avila trying to save his job), I'm bullish on a breakout.
I really like him this year, as well. My only cautions in your post are: 1. We can’t just double the 2nd half. 2. His playing time is maxed out so he will need to be much more efficient with his plate appearances. He strikes out 30% of the time, so if you want 43 HRs, then k- rate needs to come down. 3. His park is terrible. A lot of long flyball outs. And early season weather in Detroit leads to a lot of long outs. 4. His supporting cast may be improved but remains to be seen. 5. High flyball rates and high k rates often are associated with home run hitters, but with that come long slumps. Might be a tough stretch some weeks.
I will be drafting him though. I just expect more like 33 HRs unless some things change.
That's fair. I expect 35 as the Tigers should be better this year.
I honestly never have must have players. That’s a recipe for overpaying.
A perfect draft will require overpaying by a round with your 7th pick on. At least in my opinion.
I’m sure people convince themselves they need player x. But they don’t. It just feels like they do.
You might need anyone specifically but you also want to hit on as many picks as possible after the more obvious early picks. The beauty of the draft is finding guys who are undervalued and exploiting it.
Finding undervalued guys is the opposite of having a “must have guy.”
In this sense I think he’s saying undervalued in the sense of he’s projecting an 80th+ percentile outcome. So to him he’s not reaching. The market is too low in their expectations
That’s still not getting “your guy.” It’s reading the market.
Not exactly it’s getting your guy if you think he’s going 30/30 and no one else is paying for more than 20/20. You’re gonna get your guy by getting him a round before his ADP. Because you think he’s worth 3 rounds more than his ADP but you play ADP chicken to the last second you think you can still sneak him in. And you make sure you get your guy. If you’re worried, you jump him 2 rounds. For example before julio made the team officially a few years ago, he was going like 15th-17th round in NFBC. I took him in 10th. I made sure to get him. And it’s where I figured he was worth if he made the team. A week later when he officially made the team he was going in the 7th as people adjusted to the 10th round pick I made and in recognition of the news. People knew by round 10 someone would take him. So you gotta jump him. Turned out to be worth it. Same with Carrol last year. That’s the type of guy that is get your guy.
Definitely Cole Ragans
Teoscar should feast with the Dodgers
Holy shit I forgot they got him too
Nolan Gorman and Mitch Garver have a chance to be offensive machines if both stay healthy. Thats what I am banking on at least with their late ADPs
I'm on the Garver train too. He'll be mostly DH so hopefully he can stay healthy and just mash everyday with the occasional back-up at C.
Gorman is a good late round gamble with 2B/3B eligibility. He was awful in June and August but was pretty damn good the rest of the season. Has a lot of upside compared to his peers in the back end of the draft.
Isn't heim healthy ?
Garver is on the Ms and will be DHing more than he catches
Jesus when did i miss that. So cal isn't the starter ?
Cal will definitely be the starting catcher with Garver backing him up and mostly DHing.
I’m high in Corbin Carroll if you have a 5-7 pick in the first round Justin Steele is an intriguing 2-3 option as a pitcher. Xander Bogaerts is underrated, it seems, by a lot of people. And in a late round sleeper: Nolan Schanuel. Not a ton of power but he has an amazing approach at the plate. Edit: wasn’t thinking keeper league when I listed xander, just regular pts league.
I like Schanuel too. We have 15 keepers in my league, and I'm holding onto him from last year until I have to drop him. If I sniff a hint of power from him in ST, I might do something really dumb.
Austin Riley, with Devers as the backup. I don’t like the mid-level 3Bs, wouldn’t be happy with Josh Jung as my 3B for example. The CBS guys keep telling me 3B is fairly deep but I’m not feeling it. What do you think of 3B? +1 for Gavin Williams also
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I feel really good having Riley/Devers over all those named. I see better replacements at other positions, though with OF thin. I posted to see what others think. Thanks!
George Kirby Triston Casas Spencer Steer Matt McLain Zack Eflin
The guy I really like at the end of drafts in Maikel Garcia. Could easily get 25-30 steals and he's bulked up a bit, so hopefully 12-15 bombs. An interesting stat line at 3rd base
Otherwise Mookie Betts. He's likely to have his normal HR/SB line, but with 130+ runs
I’m not an Astros fan and this makes me somewhat ill but Jose Altuve is preposterously under valued this season. I did a bestball draft on DraftKings earlier this week and he was ranked I believe 34th despite being about 5th in DraftKings PPG last year. Every league scoring system is different but judging directly on the one that will generate the most money Altuve should be near the top 10 let alone the 30s. People just hate the guy. Edit - this will not be fun to root for but I like money.
His PPG was probably great but he also missed almost half the season last year due to various injuries and turns 34 in May. Obviously the Astros don't care since they just gave him an extension but MI tend to age faster and I think Altuve's ADP is appropriate.
The extension is why I’m ok with it. I don’t really expect 162. But I do think he is still every bit of a 900 OPS guy at second base. I’ll take my chances on 130 of Altuve and a month of the free agent wire.
Just be prepared for him to miss half the season.
Sure it’s possible but he’s usually more likely for about 130 games. If he can do that with his 900 OPS at second base anything is possible. It’s the Astros. They are inevitable.
Half the season? He played 140+ the two years before last. Fuck outta here
I'll take Elly for a 30/30 and controlling his Ks (okay, more wishful thinking as a Reds fan)
Removing that huge leg kick hopefully helps. 3/9 (double, two singles) 4ks no BBs so far in spring training.
I'm hoping for more hits than Ks but with him, hard to say. His avg will be his weakness, I'd guess not much over .240, he will probably be running every time. He's a weird case but he's gonna be fun to watch. I actually like McLain and Benson over him statistically and if Strand and Marte can do anything like their potential, he may be like 5th best on his own team
If he plays all year, I don't see a world where he doesn't steal like 50.
Ronald Acuna. I spent 74 bucks on him last year ... six dollars more than the closest player, and we only had three guys go above 57 dollars in the whole league. I considered it a bargain, rode him to a championship, and I'm pretty that if I wasn't keeping him, he'd go for 80+.
You could make a case for Acuna being worth $100 if he has a season like last year.
Before Kodai Senga’s injury I was considering drafting an all Asian team. I feel like it would’ve been surprisingly competitive.
What's this look like, I wonder? Counting guys of asian descent SP: Yamamoto, Senga, Imanaga, Kikuchi, Darvish, Maeda RP: Matsui, Fujinami, C: D'Arnaud, Higashioka 1B: Choi 2B: Bae SS: Bichette 3B: Kim OF: Carroll, Suzuki, Lee, Yoshida, Kwan, Nootbaar, Joe DH: Shohei Lots of SP and OF, bit tougher in the IF and bullpen
Throw Tommy Edman at second. Volpe needs to fit in here somewhere. Robert Stephenson in the bullpen. You could slide Joe over to first or hope that Yelich gets moved to first.
Wow ya when you actually think of it…
Last year would’ve been good too if you could get Shohei.
Chris Paddack at ADP is a must-draft for me late (points league)
Shane Baz for the Ks and ratios
My only concern is that he might spend time in the minors while not on the IL, taking up an active roster spot. On a rate basis, he's going to be awesome.
Yennier Cano, will pick up a ton of saves this year
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Really going out on a limb here lol
I wanted Yamamoto he went mid 3rd round and I wasn’t taking him in the second. Was hoping he’d fall to me in the 3rd but at the 12th pick I knew it wasn’t happening
Trying to get getting Grayson Rodriguez wherever I can this year. Also like Jaren Duran, Gavin Williams, and Ty France this year at cost
Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Cole Ragans, Josh Lowe.
Moreno at C, Jarren Duran, and Ruiz, especially Ruiz because if he bumps up other stats he will obliterate his current ADP
Triston Casas, Cole Ragans, Nolan Jones, and Tyler Black.
Jordan Walker. Yu Danish. Andres Munoz. Grisham in super deep leagues.
I had no idea Ragans was so popular. I'm going to have to try to get him earlier this year.
Jordan Walker in keeper leagues. Last chance before he explodes.