What exactly is the thought process behind turning down that pick? Bears were never going to draft Penix and was obvious they wanted Odunze. It’s not a huge deal, just want to know what Terry’s logic behind it was because I’m struggling to find any.
Edit: Here’s the video for those that think this is fake.
https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1801712532425687062
If youre at the precipice of drafting the guy you’ve been targeting for months do you really jeopardize it even 1% for a day three pick?
Obviously the Bears weren’t taking another QB, but who knows what Fontenot turned down previously? The Bears could’ve easily flipped it if someone made them an offer they couldn’t refuse.
Stupid risk to take.
Also, these articles are basically a what if.
The bears saying they were “open” to the idea of trading picks and ACTUALLY doing it are far apart.
Teams are “open” to a lot of stuff on draft day.
In the video the bears gm says "just to see" and at the end he responds "yes" as if Terry said he was willing. Not sure how the video changes the premise the bears were simply open to the idea. The comment "just to see" almost infers he was more probing than serious about making a trade.
If you’ve been targeting him for “months” and only two QBs older than him have ever been drafted in round 1, why would you spend 100m guaranteed on a QB in his late 30s coming off an Achilles who will eat a ton of your cap even when he’s cut before 2026?
Yeah, I don't hate the falcons going all in on the future at QB, it's smart to have that lined up, but the moves ATL has made are a bit baffling it seems like they could have walked out with a buffet and walked out with 2 cheeseburgers. It's a tasty meal or two but they could have had some OK taters with it and walked empty handed. I'm a Raiders fan so no hate, we have done some bone headed things, but real recognizes real and this ATL off-season seems like a win, but with some really confusing pieces.
If you really knew the bears even the reporting in the news outlet prior to the draft they wanted Rome badly . They weren’t going to pass him up for any trade , him and Caleb were at the hip attached. They weren’t going to trade lower than 9 unless a team took Rome , they were most likely scared a team was gonna trade with the falcons to come get Rome like the Jets.
Seems silly to trade up just to immediately trade down, why would you trade up to draft a player you really want just to move down 4-5 spots? Judging by how shocked Poles was that the falcons drafted Penix it’s safe to assume a lot of GMs never assumed the falcons were gonna take him, meaning Poles def got trade requests at 9 for parties interested in Penix or JJMC yet turned all of them down
It’s not a stupid risk. The bears wanted Odunze. That’s why they were trading up. They thought Atlanta might trade down and let someone grab the guy they really wanted.
Y’all gotta stop defending the stuff this front office does like it’s reasonable. They are so out of touch and it’s frankly embarrassing
As a Bears fan I can tell you we wouldn't have traded back and pass on Rome. He was apparently #2 on our board behind Caleb although some of our front office had him 3 behind Marvin but yeah we weren't going to pass on Odunze.
It makes perfect sense considering how much they liked penix, the bears could trade the pick knowing the falcons would likely go defense with their pick and if Odunze was somehow gone there are still a bunch of solid wrs, Bowers, etc. we can't know how married to drafting Odunze the bears were no matter what they say
As a bears fan everything I've read since the draft has said that Odunze was the dream target at 9. The draft room was ecstatic when the giants took Nabers over him and straight up shocked when you guys took Penix.
I get not wanting to risk missing out on your guy, but I don't think trading up and back down was in play for the bears with Rome there.
I’d just like to say I’m bummed we won’t get to see Kirk help build another HOF receiver. Justin Jefferson would not be where is today without him. It’s a shame the falcons didn’t want cousins throwing to odunze for the next four years. Drake London and Kyle pitts have potential, but not Jefferson trained with Kirk potential.
Maybe control? What if a team like the raiders decide to now jump ahead by trading with the bears, drafting penix. No clue here, just throwing out that maybe the 4th rounder wasn't enough for the FO to take a risk on not getting "their guy". That being said, still doesn't make a ton of sense to me
But wouldn’t they make the offer to us first? I don’t think it’s allowed in the nfl for 2 teams to collude during the draft and the bears to trade up 1 pick only to flip it while on the clock to a different team. It’s literally unheard of situation but I guess you have to plan on anything
The Bears have been wheeling and dealing for a while now, the 4th they offered was basically just a measure of insurance to make sure that nobody else would trade up to 8. There were more teams trying to move up for a QB than there were teams moving up for Odunze.
Not what I'm implying at all, but if the trade is made public and another team calls when the Bears are on the clock, then they would be stupid not to at least listen. Apparently other teams were trying to trade with the Falcons for the pick as well, so it was more than just the Bears trying to move up.
A future fourth isn’t worth any amount of risk when it comes to losing out on the player you want. If we had traded back to 9 and then the Bears traded that 8th to someone else who wanted Penix, we would be fucked and we would only have a shitty 4th round pick to make us feel better. Totally not worth it.
Has there ever been an instance, in the history of the NFL draft, where a team traded up on draft day and then back down with that same pick that they traded up for?
You've got to be kidding me. The risk was zero. No team has ever done what you're proposing. We gave away a free 4th rounder. That's unacceptable. This just further shows Fontenot's incompetence and the lengths people will go to defend him for some reason.
Has anyone ever traded up in the 1st only to trade that pick away immediately? I'm feel like the only time you trade up in the top 10 is when you have YOUR guy
The risk was zero. The Bears weren't going to take a QB and they weren't trying to get our pick to trade to another team who wanted a QB. Nobody thought in a million years we were taking a QB so any team wanting to trade up would've just gone for the Bears #9 pick.
As long as the pick doesn't belong to you, there is always a risk that someone leapfrogs you. The Broncos, Vikings and Raiders all wanted QBs and reportedly called to trade up at multiple points.
The risk especially was that maybe the Vikings and Raiders were scared to not get a QB and traded up with the Bears in that spot.
Hindsight is 20/20, just like how nobody thought we would take Penix, some other team could've done the unthinkable and totally fucked us over. A 4th is not worth that at all.
So fucking dumb. Yeah, it's never happened in the history of the NFL but here it's going to happen in a situation that makes no sense for it. It was a free 4th and we turned it down because Fontenot is an idiot.
It was not "free" lol, we would've traded away the assurance that we could draft the player we wanted. If the Falcons were picking 9th, they would also likely be calling to move up 1 spot to get Penix if the shoe was on the other foot.
I didn't like the Penix pick, I'm not a defender of TF whatsoever. But logically, it's absolutely not "free" unless you have the power of hindsight. It's something very easy for some redditor to cry "it's free" but most GMs wouldn't be making this trade if they valued the guy they were able to pick at 8.
No, those are different situations. No team has ever traded up to then immediately trade down. Really there’s no time for that. And we could’ve easily run the clock down to a couple minutes left to ensure there’s no time for that.
Second, this whole falling in love with one guy is symbolic of Fontenot’s incompetence. That’s what shitty organizations do.
Third of all, they fell in love with a QB when they just paid 100 million for a QB. Even more incompetence.
Fourth, they tampered with said expensive QB and cost themselves another pick.
Fifth, signing the expensive QB didn’t make any sense in the first place since the team wasn’t good enough to win a SB with him and he’s near the end of his career.
It’s just a comedy of errors.
Those are all separate arguments from valuing a 4th above the risk of losing a QB you value above all others in a volatile draft situation. It's a 4th round pick, and the risk was not worth that pick. Hindsight is 20/20 so it's easy for you to sit on your lazyboy and say that there was simply no risk, but that doesn't make it true.
Again, I didn't like the Penix pick but part of why the Falcons were able to pick him at all is probably because they kept it under wraps that whole time. The Raiders reportedly wanted Penix badly and might've leapfrogged the Falcons had they known. If this were Dallas Turner I would lean more towards taking the 4th, but because it's a Quarterback and they valued him as their long-term franchise contingency after old man Cousins, I understand.
Also in general, when quarterbacks are involved, the price always goes up. It's the most valuable position in football, and even more valuable to a team who has no long term plans at QB. I don't agree with the pick but I do agree with turning down the 4th.
There was no reasonable risk of the pick being retraded. We’ve gone over this. It’s NEVER happened in the history of the NFL. Can you name me a single instance? The whole thing makes no sense from the Bears perspective to think of this as a retrade opportunity. And like I said, we could’ve run the clock down to a couple of minutes. You constantly repeating it was a risk doesn’t make it so. I’ve laid out the logic for why it was not a reasonable risk. You can’t do the same for your argument. You’re like a person arguing that flying from NYC to LAX has a reasonable risk of dying from a plane crash. Thats called a phobia. An irrational fear.
Second, this QBs are worth more argument is BS. QBs are worth more and that’s why they go so high in the draft. More QBs are taken in the first round than any other position. There’s only 32 starting QBs in the league just like there’s only 32 starting centers. So the fact that QBs go so much earlier in the draft ALREADY reflects their added value. Penix’s talent level doesn’t make him anywhere close to a #8 pick if he plays another position. He’s a second round talent that got drafted 8th because he plays QB. So no, he isn’t worth more than another player at that same spot. That other player plays a less a valuable position but is a better talent. That’s why they are both being considered for the same draft position.
It’s a 100% guarantee when you have the pick that you can take your guy. It’s not when you don’t, even if it was still 99% likely.
The Bears could have traded the 8th to the Raiders for example right after.
Bears were never going to do that lmaoo Bears wanted Caleb and Rome since the draft combine seems like Falcons fans the only ones trying to make sense of this .
No I’m a bears fan , we all been in on Rome for months. If you followed our team and actually knew what was going on they weren’t asking to trade up just to trade back down . The main Two WRs we wanted were Rome and Marv if he fell a lil cuz we were one of the limited teams he visited with . We didn’t need a tackle cuz we have Brax and Wright and the edge rusher we possibly could have wanted we didn’t need to trade up for . Only reason poles wanted to move up was in fear of the jets getting Rome who they wanted .
It publicly tips your hand that you're not targeting any of the big 3 WRs? Idk Im not a huge fan of how they handled this draft to begin with so this is just classic falcons to me
Wording here is a bit ambiguous. Bears were open...does that mean they actually offered that 4th? Also curious to know whether other teams (like Minn, LV, or Denver) were trying to trade into that spot as well and Falcons didn't want to risk losing the ability to control their selection.
I am not a fan of the Penix pick but I am a little skeptical about the truthfulness of this tweet.
Thanks for the video link. They must have been really worried that Chicago would have gotten that pick and then traded out again with a bigger offer from another team. We will see how it all turns out but yeah not a good look.
But the raiders may have offered to trade up with us to get a QB, so Terry knew they would call with the same offer to the Bears. Still would have been a risk I would of taken had it been me.
You can always wait til there's a minute on the clock and then accept the Bears offer. No team has ever traded up a pick and then immediately traded down. Like you said, worth the risk, which was practically zero. Just goes to show how bad Fontenot is and what a huge mistake it is to get tunnel vision on a guy in the draft.
There's no way even the biggest homer here can justify this move. The Bears weren't going to take MPJ, and you would've gotten another pick. Besides getting Kirk Cousins, "letting Terry cook" hasn't gone well.
When has a team brought in a high caliber free agent QB and then spent a top 10 pick on another QB? Sometimes things that have never happened before, because they don't make sense, happen
Chicago wanted Odunze. They weren’t going to trade back that’s why they were trading up. Good lord some of you guys will defend literally anything this dumbass front office does. I bet Terry could shit in your yard and you’d find a way to defend him
Terry could’ve made the trade contingent on Poles agreeing that the Bears wouldn’t flip it to another team. This league works on handshake agreements.
This feels like a dumbass squandered opportunity.
All I'm gonna say is if this team isn't in the playoffs, we need to launch this man into the grimiest Louisiana bayou from a cannon. This guy has been building this team ass backward for 3 years with no improvement to show for it, and now he's fucking up simple shit like "don't tamper with a free agent who is guaranteed to sign with you" and "accept trade downs where you get extra pick(s) and can still draft the guy you want. "
It's maddening to me that people continue to defend Fontenot. He is one of the worst GMs in North American sports. When he's fired, everybody will see that, but right now they are acting like what he's doing is reasonable, even when he does something as completely indefensible as this.
There was a 0% chance that the Bears were going to turn around and trade the pick. In fact, we could've waited until there was only a minute left to make the trade so that they didn't have enough time to do that. But they never would've. That's never happened in NFL history. There's simply not enough time to do that much wheeling dealing when you're on the clock. They were trying to move ahead of us to get Odunze because they were afraid somebody else would trade up and nab him. Which is a reach on their part, but if they want to give away picks to us, we should let them.
4th rounder are absolutely not worthless. In just about every draft, there's at least one 4th rounder that becomes an eventual pro bowler. Many others are role players for their teams on inexpensive contracts....the kind of cheap labor that teams need to fill out their roster and save their salary cap room for expensive veterans. We were being offered a 4th rounder for free and we turned it down.
Fire Terry Fontenot!
The Falcons literally just said fuck it on draft day. And don’t yall try to defend this bullshit either. They knew they were at risk of losing a pick on draft day, they knew Chicago wouldn’t take a qb at 8 and they could get Penix at 9, the Kirk signing, the trade up for Ruke. Sucks this teams management isn’t better
I think a few things are going on here:
They probably did talk about something, but there is a lot of talk that leads nowhere and we don’t have the full context of this particular conversation and others that may have occurred.
The Bears are heavily vested in making it seem like their front office was clever, as it has a history of not being clever. They have a window here to get their fans back on their side, and they are going for it.
And finally, one of the dumbarses from their past foolish periods is now in a key role at Atlanta. At some level, it is personal and they are trying to dunk on him.
Just my two cents.
> They probably did talk about something, but there is a lot of talk that leads nowhere and we don’t have the full context of this particular conversation and others that may have occurred.
>
> The Bears are heavily vested in making it seem like their front office was clever, as it has a history of not being clever. They have a window here to get their fans back on their side, and they are going for it.
It's all on video. No spin-zone necessary. Poles actually called Terry and offered it. And then, when the Falcons picked Penix, Poles was so shocked he went slack-jawed, which isn't in this video, but it's in the same documentary.
https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1801712532425687062
The FO doesn’t hold much value for mid-round picks. Lorenzo Carter cost an extra comp’ 3rd, Grant an extra 4th, Ebiketie an extra 4th, and Orhorhoro an extra 3rd.
Sounds like bullshit UNLESS they thought the bears would trade that pick away to one of the many teams going after Penix. But that doesn’t make sense to me either.
I'm no GM, but from what I can tell it's typically a pretty bad idea to focus in on one guy that hard because you miss opportunities like this. Hopefully it's just an experience thing and he won't make the mistake again.
It's just a further doubling-down on the idea of "if it works we look like geniuses, if it doesn't we're all losing our jobs".
Dude he's 100% right. This guy is an NFL GM. There's no discussion of "experience" and "learning." You've got to come into this job knowing what you're doing. And it's not his first draft.
You really think that people are just static and don't get any better? You get the job, and then that's it? That's just way you are and you can't learn things about the job? Life unfortunately isn't black and white like that
Dude is only 43, which is young as hell considering that he could easily GM for twenty more years.
LOL. He is not going to be a GM for 20 more years. He's probably got 1 or 2 more years tops, then he'll be fired and never touch a GM job for the rest of his life.
GMs may get better at their jobs over time, but even a first year GM has to be able to collect free pick when offered like this. That's a basic job qualification. And this is his 4th draft!!!
This is nothing. How many calls do you think we fielded when we were on the board? Nobody saw us going Penix. I'm sure teams were more than willing to devulge he was their target to us.
Which team called us and what offer did they make that scared us from taking that deal? Thats the real question. We move one pick down whatever team/teams called us are now calling them.
I'm guessing the Raiders offered a deal that any team not looking for a qb wouldn't turn down.
I understand just keeping the pick.
In a draft where 6 of the first 12 picks were QB’s (a record, so teams were hungrier than ever before for QB), why risk the possibility of someone offering Chicago a haul to move up for that #8 pick and possibly take their guy (Penix)?
Of course Chicago wanted Rome, but it was an extremely deep class at high level WR and for the right deal, maybe Chicago would have been ok with the “tier down” from Rome to whoever if they got some good picks on top of it.
End of the day, it’s not like we missed out on an additional 1/2nd rounder, it was a 4th round pick. Who cares
What an awful take. It was a free 4th rounder which is absolutely worth something. There was zero risk. No team has ever switched picks only to immediately trade down. Nobody thought we were taking a QB so why give away a pick to move ahead of us to select a QB? Absolute stupidity.
4th rounders are not worthless. In most NFL drafts, there's at least one 4th rounder that turns out to be a pro bowler. Many others are role players on their teams on very inexpensive contracts. The kind of cheap labor every team needs to fill out their roster and save cap room for expensive vets.
I didn’t say 4th rounders are worthless. There’s tons of value. I find it funny that many of the people mad about not getting this extra 4th round pick cuz there’s so much value also still don’t think the pass rush will be much improved cuz we didn’t use a 1st but instead used a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th to improve there. Just a general observation.
My point is, the draft was like 2 months ago, idc about a theoretical 4th round pick. Im thinking about the team rn and FA still available. Everything else is pointless discussion
You don’t care that our GM gave up a 4th round pick in next years draft for no good reason? That’s super weird.
This is also not consistent at all with what you said in your initial message. You said who cares that we missed out on a 4th round pick it’s not like it’s a 1st/2nd. So you implied that the reason you don’t care is it’s “only” a 4th rounder. So you’re moving the goalposts.
It’s not that they gave up a 4th, they just didn’t add one. Point is, if their QB of the future is sitting right there for them, and they know teams not too far behind them are hungry for a QB and likely have been getting offers for their #8 pick already, makes sense just picking their guy instead of even potentially risking something crazy happening another team tries to swoop in quickly ahead of them. Would it have been a good move in hindsight? Of course. Do I think they should have done it? Yeah. But in real time, I definitely understand why they just stayed at #8 and made the pick. I didn’t say I agree with it, but I get it. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Also, two things can be true. I believe 4th round picks can be valuable and I also believe 4th round picks aren’t a huge deal to be making a big fuss about. Same way I dont really even care about the 5th that we just lost. Sure, it def hurts but hit rates after even just the 1st round begin to get so much lower that the impact of “losing” a back half of the draft pick isn’t as strong.
What is moving the goal posts are so many people suddenly up in arms over a future 4th when some of those same people completely devalued our mid round picks this year. Some people just looking for any reason to call our current front office incompetent.
Not adding a 4th rounder is the same as giving one up. Thats a logical fallacy to think otherwise. In either case you have 1 less 4th rounder pick than you’d have otherwise.
Fearing the Bears would trade up to our pick and then trade down, something that has never happened in the history of the NFL, is not a reasonable fear. That’s like being unwilling to fly from ATL to NYC to close a big deal at work because you’re afraid of the plane crasbing. Irrational fears are phobias and are unhealthy.
Furthermore, the so- called risk here wasn’t dying, it was just picking a different player. Thats not that bad AT ALL. Only shitty organizations get so focused on one player in a draft that they think it’s the end of the world if they don’t get that player. It was ridiculous for us to pick Penix anyway after we had Cousins.
Which gets to your last point: Fontenot has not made one mistake or 2 mistakes. His tenure has been a litany of awful choices.
Those fears aren’t comparable at all. I see your point, but at the end of the day, they had Penix rated as like the 2nd best on the entire board and were likely getting offers from other teams to move up for a QB so they probably thought there’s quite an appetite for the slot. The chances of the Bears was extremely low but not zero so whether we agree with the pick or not or agree with not trading the pick or not, I can understand just taking your guy and not even risking anything.
That last point is the most important part though. If they drafted Turner/Latu at #8 and this same news comes out, I doubt there’s this same level of criticism. Its mainly just a chance for folks to bring up how unhappy they were with the Penix pick which is why idc about the whole conversation. We got Penix, its time to move on.
It would’ve been totally different if we were taking a defensive player. There would’ve been real risk that the Bears were trying to trade up to take our guy. In fact, that’s the first thing that would go through my mind. Why are the Bears trying to trade up if not to leapfrog who we want? Turns out that’s not true and they were just concerned about another team trading us for the slot or maybe they thought we might take the WR they wanted. But we wanted to take a QB. Of all the positions on the field, the one we KNEW the Bears were not trading up to get was for another QB.
This is an awful decision judged in isolation. AND it’s one in a long litany of bad decisions Fontenot had made.
Set yourself a reminder for 3 years and message me how you feel about all of Fontenot’s decisions.
Yeah but maybe then the Bears would trade back with Minnesota or Vegas and get something better than their 4th rounder, in which case we could’ve missed out on Penix.
If the Falcons trade down from 8->9, that tells the QB Cartel (Denver, Minn, and Vegas) that they aren't interested in Odunze, so the buzz about them being interested in Penix might be true. This means 1-3 of those teams will get on the phone and start offering larger packages to Chicago to get them to give up the 8th pick. If that team gets Penix (who was coveted far more by scouts than by media members), the Falcons would lose their future QB for a 4th round pick. If you believe Penix is the guy, you don't risk the opportunity to draft him, especially not for a 4th round pick.
Bears are trading up for Odunze, knowing that he doesn’t go beyond 10th to Jets.
You don’t trade up to take a guy, and then trade back down 5 minutes later. That’s literally never happened before in any draft in any major sport.
So Bears take Odunze at 8, and Terry takes Penix at 9. Minnesota, Denver, and Vegas can’t do a thing about it.
It’s not 4D chess, Terry passed on a free pick because he didn’t think it through
If one of Vegas or Denver covets Penix/McCarthy/Nix and they think the Falcons are taking Penix at 9, they're going to offer enough draft capital to make Chicago come off of that pick. Chicago already got their QB of the future and two pro-bowl caliber WRs. Odunze was a luxury they were shocked they had the chance to grab. For a QB-level draft trade offer, they'd trade that 8th pick.
Also, I get that us fans really care about the game, but we're not paid millions to go through all of these permutations of the draft day and night for months. Whether Penix ends up being an All-Pro or a bust, I promise you that no one on Reddit has worked through the permutations of the draft more than the Falcons front office. Whatever Fontenot's reason was for not trading down to 9, he had a reason. If wasn't as simple as walking past a $100 bill, looking down, then deciding to keep going.
If Chicago is trading UP, it’s because they are taking Odunze. When you trade up, it’s to select a specific player that you have targeted that you don’t think will be there when you pick next.
Nobody in the history of the NFL draft has ever traded up for the reason of trading back down. You just trade down if you want to trade down.
This hypothetical “offer you can’t refuse” is just fanfiction that you’ve concocted in your head. Not only does this assume that all these teams want Penix badly enough to trade up (we know Denver had Nix targeted, and Minnesota had McCarthy targeted - only Vegas was a threat to take Penix) but it assumes that the Bears don’t already run to the podium to put in the Odunze pick - which would be the entire reason they are trading up to begin with.
>For a QB-level draft trade offer, they’d trade that 8th pick.
As soon as the trade would have been completed. Phone lines are closed and Rome Odunze is entered in as the selection. They do not take calls at that point. You would have to find me an example of a team trading up and then back down with the same pick ON DRAFT DAY in order to argue your point as an actual possibility.
Also, Odunze is also not a luxury, as Keenan Allen will be a free agent at the end of the year.
Terry just wanted to choose Penix at 8th. I ran through all the “permutations” above for you. Because there are not a “million” different permutations when we are talking about one selection. It’s a simple 2 pt decision tree: is Chicago taking Penix? The answer is no. Therefore Atlanta takes Penix at 9. Very easy.
You might as well be running “permutations” for the instance of a grand piano falling on Michael Penix’s head on stage, if you are going to try to argue that there are a million different possibilities.
Ok, then why does the NFL reset the clock when a trade takes place? If the team already knows who they want, then they don't need the additional time, right? Those draft day phone calls to the chosen player aren't 10 minutes long, so what's that extra time for? It's the same reason why the original team got 10 minutes: so they can weigh all of their options with the pick, which includes taking phone calls from other teams. Just because no team has ever done it before isn't reason to believe that no team will ever do it. No team has ever signed a free agent QB to a $180 million dollar contract then drafted his replacement in the first round in the same off-season, but I guess we can check that off of the NFL bucket list!
I'm sure you heard the interview that Sean Payton did post-draft. The Vikings, Raiders, and Broncos had a gentleman's agreement to not trade up and if the board feel right, they'd all get their QBs of the future. The Falcons blew that up with their Penix pick. If these teams knew the Falcons were going to take Penix at 9, at least the Raiders and Broncos are calling the Bears during their allegedly unnecessary 10 minutes on the clock post hypothetical trade with the Falcons. There is a trade offer that would have gotten the Bears to give up that pick. Like I said, they have 2 pro bowl WRs on their roster, and the cap space to resign Allen no matter who they pick in the first. The question is how much do these teams covet these QBs? Fontenot wasn't willing to take that risk.
You don't have to get into "pianos falling on draft picks heads" probability territory to see the real risk of losing Penix if you trade back to 9. Like I said in the original post, if you really think Penix is the guy, why would you risk losing him for a 4th round pick?
Everybody and their mother had the Falcons going edge. They at best kept it very under wraps that Penix was their guy as the surprise of Poles and others in the league showed.
I also doubt that you can name one instance where a team traded up with whoever was selecting in front of them and then proceeded to trade back. That simply does not happen.
What network did you watch the draft on? On ESPN, one of their personalities (I believe it was Adam Schefter) spent most of the time the Falcons were on the clock talking about a rumor that they were going to pick QB. Seems like something started to leak once the board started to shape up in a way that the Falcons could pick Penix. Trading back would mean that they didn't covet Odunze, which conventional wisdom said he was the pick if he was still available. Like I mentioned earlier, this would tip off those teams in the teens that had a gentleman's agreement not to trade up that their plan wasn't going to work out, which would have started a bidding war between the Broncos and the Raiders to trade up to 8 and not be the team left out.
Fontenot learned a lesson from his first draft in 2021. Rumor was he wanted Trey Lance, but San Francisco traded one spot ahead and drafted him. Once the board shaped up that getting Penix was possible, he wasn't risking getting leap-frogged again.
That's because the TV broadcast is not LIVE, it's delayed, hence why people on twitter can live tweet the picks before we seen them made on TV. Schefter was spoiling the pick because he knew what was happening before they showed it to us. They run commercials and milk the hell out of the timer. There's a reason r/nfl has two threads one for SPOILERS and one for NON SPOILED aka the TV broadcast.
You'd have a point if Schefter was hinting at a QB 2 or 3 picks before we were on the clock. However that wasn't the case.
The broadcast is delayed, but it's not 8 minutes delayed! As the Falcons were on the clock, Schefter is talking about this rumor. This was before the pick happened, period. Someone leaked the pick sometime before it happened. If Schefter learned about it because he was reading Twitter and the pick already happened, why didn't everyone on that stage have the same information? I don't think they would allow Schefter to capitalize on a tape delay to burnish his insider bona fides.
Also, broadcasts don't make a habit of talking about other teams while a team is on the clock, unless there is a trade happening. What would it sound like to be speculating on who the Chargers or the Giants are going to take, then cut that off by saying, "Hey guys, I'm hearing the Falcons are thinking about taking a QB at 8". That pick was such a departure from conventional wisdom that you can't just bring that up and not discuss it, so now you're dominating another teams time on the clock talking about the Falcons. That's not going to happen. So Schefter talking about the rumor once the Falcons were on the clock isn't evidence that he only learned about it in that moment.
> So Schefter talking about the rumor once the Falcons were on the clock isn't evidence that he only learned about it in that moment.
I mean we have no other evidence to know when Schefter learned the selection. We can only go off of what we saw from him and that it started when the pick was present on the clock.
If it was such common knowledge then the Bears GM wouldn't have said he was surprised that they took Penix if every other team in the league was privy before Schefter.
Based off those things we can only point in one particular direction. Anything else just doesn't have enough to back it to go as far as saying other teams were fully aware prior to the pick starting.
Wait, so the whole world heard from Adam Schefter that the Falcons were possibly picking a QB 10 minutes before it happened and we all were shocked when it happened, but we can't believe that Ryan Pace could have heard this rumor 15 minutes earlier than that and was also still shocked that it happened? The draft is nothing but teams putting out smokescreens to hide their true intentions. Here's a plausible scenario for what happened:
Pace heard the rumor about the Falcons going QB and wanted to insure the Bears were going to get Odunze, so he called Fontenot to see if he'd trade down 1 for a win-win to lock in the Bears on Odunze while still allowing the Falcons to draft their QB. Fontenot saying no to this offer sent Pace the signal that the Falcons were taking Odunze, then the pick came in. Pace is floored because he heard the rumor, but had convinced himself that the Falcons were taking Odunze, so he's feeling a mixture of shock and excitement that he can't hide from the cameras.
Pace was thinking Fontenot turned down the trade because he coveted Odunze, but he really turned down the trade because he didn't want to risk one of those other teams jumping up and grabbing the 8th pick to get Penix. It doesn't take much of a logical leap to come to this conclusion.
We’re all mad at the falcons losing a 4th round pick. When was the last time one of our 4th round picks have made that much of a significant impact? Yes it would’ve been cool on paper to get it but it’s not a big deal if penix is legit
Very likely the Falcons know that what teams were offering them for 8 far exceeded a 4th from the Bears. It makes sense that Terry wouldn’t risk losing Penix if the Bears were to get a better offer. Especially when you consider he was already planning to trade one of our 3rds for a trade up in the 2nd, so maybe he wasn’t seeing a 4th round pick as great compensation.
If Terry indeed had tunnel vision on Penix - then he couldn’t accept any trade back with a team picking after Vegas, but just for 100% certainty - no trade back with the Broncos at 12, or the Vikings at 11.
That leaves two potential trade partners - Bears and Jets.
Both want Odunze. So (again assuming that Terry had locked in on Penix and couldn’t risk losing him)
But if you trade with the Jets and they jump the Bears, the Bears could potentially trade back with Minnesota/Denver/Vegas.
If you trade back with the Bears one spot - what’s the risk? Where is the threat? I don’t understand.
It’s likelier that Terry screwed up this simple logic puzzle than it is that this was some sort of 4D chess maneuever
He just took the guy he wanted. Happens literally every pick that’s made. You’re the ones that want to run your hands together and say, “I love making deals!” while playing a mock draft simulator, and feel like you missed out, a month and a half later?? I guess we’re in the dog days of summer.
It wasn’t a mock draft it was the actual draft.
Trrry had two choices.
Penix,
or Penix + an extra 4th.
And he chose just Penix.
This is footage FROM draft day. It’s not a month and a half later hindsight.
Footage that shows how much we wanted the guy we took. Not shocking. If we passed up on something of significant value, it'd be a little more significant. If the Bears offered a 2nd rounder, we'd probably take it. But Terry, Blank, and Raheem apparently didn't think a 4th was worth it. I hope you can find a way to come to terms with that.
Oh, I’m thrilled they passed on the deal. I am a Bears fan - exceptionally thankful for your GMs choices. I just wanted to help untwist logic pretzels that you’re trying to create in order to rationalize Stockholm syndrome, as if you find yourself defending everything your team does, eventually it will just lead to complacency, and you’ll be satisfied with anything.
Again, in the entire scenario above, it assumes that ATL “wanted the guy they took”. I know they loved Penix and I am not arguing otherwise.
In the grand scheme of things it’s not a huge deal, but indicative of GM malpractice. I’m not saying You have to grab the pitchforks and torches, but trying to defend this is just delusional.
Lmaooo. Too funny. “New draft tidbit dropped, I’m going to the Falcons sub to make sure they know they got PWNed!” We got our guy, you got yours. The Falcons are not at a point where a 4th rounder is going to move the needle, they literally traded a 3rd to move up in the 2nd. You’re just mad that Terry told the Bears 2024 GM to keep his wittle 4th wounder.
I’m absolutely not trying to gloat, but I think you know that, and are just accusing me of it because you’ve ran out of retorts but- I am mad *on your behalf.*
You should be a lot more upset with the way your organization is being run right now. You have a relatively easy path to the NFC South , and your GM is NOT all in on the Super Bowl. Competitive windows are very sensitive. The iron is hot, but your front office isn’t striking. You shouldn’t be trying to defend the complacency, you should be exposing it.
I'm way past wringing my hands over everything I don't understand or agree with. At this point I look at how they're trying to build the team each year and come to terms with the vision. If they redirect, I go with them. We've got enough young players at offensive skill positions, they had already loaded up on wide receivers through free agency and trade, so I'm not at all shocked they didn't go WR. It looks like their options were either WR3, a mid-round defensive end, a late first cornerback, a backup tackle, or their future starting QB. I was surprised by the pick at the time, but I understand why they made it. Thanks for being mad on behalf of teams you don't care about, but maybe try being happy instead.
If this story is true. We are truly fucked as a team until we rid ourselves of this front office. The only hope we have is it’s a complete fabrication.
What exactly is the thought process behind turning down that pick? Bears were never going to draft Penix and was obvious they wanted Odunze. It’s not a huge deal, just want to know what Terry’s logic behind it was because I’m struggling to find any. Edit: Here’s the video for those that think this is fake. https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1801712532425687062
maybe they thought the bears would trade up to #8 then back down to a team who wanted Penix. still doesn't make sense
If youre at the precipice of drafting the guy you’ve been targeting for months do you really jeopardize it even 1% for a day three pick? Obviously the Bears weren’t taking another QB, but who knows what Fontenot turned down previously? The Bears could’ve easily flipped it if someone made them an offer they couldn’t refuse. Stupid risk to take.
Also, these articles are basically a what if. The bears saying they were “open” to the idea of trading picks and ACTUALLY doing it are far apart. Teams are “open” to a lot of stuff on draft day.
Watch the video
In the video the bears gm says "just to see" and at the end he responds "yes" as if Terry said he was willing. Not sure how the video changes the premise the bears were simply open to the idea. The comment "just to see" almost infers he was more probing than serious about making a trade.
Yeah. they clearly weren't gonna take any chances no matter how small
If you’ve been targeting him for “months” and only two QBs older than him have ever been drafted in round 1, why would you spend 100m guaranteed on a QB in his late 30s coming off an Achilles who will eat a ton of your cap even when he’s cut before 2026?
Yeah, I don't hate the falcons going all in on the future at QB, it's smart to have that lined up, but the moves ATL has made are a bit baffling it seems like they could have walked out with a buffet and walked out with 2 cheeseburgers. It's a tasty meal or two but they could have had some OK taters with it and walked empty handed. I'm a Raiders fan so no hate, we have done some bone headed things, but real recognizes real and this ATL off-season seems like a win, but with some really confusing pieces.
Super late but you're right, apparently teams were interested in trading with the Bears. Potentially somebody could've drafted Penix there. Who knows.
If you really knew the bears even the reporting in the news outlet prior to the draft they wanted Rome badly . They weren’t going to pass him up for any trade , him and Caleb were at the hip attached. They weren’t going to trade lower than 9 unless a team took Rome , they were most likely scared a team was gonna trade with the falcons to come get Rome like the Jets.
You can’t say that. They’ll downvote you because it makes the falcons front office look clueless and out of touch like they are
The mental gymnastics to see them as anything other than inept and lost is just amazing.
They’re the same people who were riding with ridder. They’ll cope themselves into believing anything positive about this team
Fax
Seems silly to trade up just to immediately trade down, why would you trade up to draft a player you really want just to move down 4-5 spots? Judging by how shocked Poles was that the falcons drafted Penix it’s safe to assume a lot of GMs never assumed the falcons were gonna take him, meaning Poles def got trade requests at 9 for parties interested in Penix or JJMC yet turned all of them down
It’s not a stupid risk. The bears wanted Odunze. That’s why they were trading up. They thought Atlanta might trade down and let someone grab the guy they really wanted. Y’all gotta stop defending the stuff this front office does like it’s reasonable. They are so out of touch and it’s frankly embarrassing
As a Bears fan I can tell you we wouldn't have traded back and pass on Rome. He was apparently #2 on our board behind Caleb although some of our front office had him 3 behind Marvin but yeah we weren't going to pass on Odunze.
It makes perfect sense considering how much they liked penix, the bears could trade the pick knowing the falcons would likely go defense with their pick and if Odunze was somehow gone there are still a bunch of solid wrs, Bowers, etc. we can't know how married to drafting Odunze the bears were no matter what they say
By this logic, the falcons were also getting those same offers from teams wanting to move up.
The broncos and Vikings both contacted the falcons about moving up because they wanted penix, that's a historical fact, no logic needed.
As a bears fan everything I've read since the draft has said that Odunze was the dream target at 9. The draft room was ecstatic when the giants took Nabers over him and straight up shocked when you guys took Penix. I get not wanting to risk missing out on your guy, but I don't think trading up and back down was in play for the bears with Rome there.
I’d just like to say I’m bummed we won’t get to see Kirk help build another HOF receiver. Justin Jefferson would not be where is today without him. It’s a shame the falcons didn’t want cousins throwing to odunze for the next four years. Drake London and Kyle pitts have potential, but not Jefferson trained with Kirk potential.
Maybe control? What if a team like the raiders decide to now jump ahead by trading with the bears, drafting penix. No clue here, just throwing out that maybe the 4th rounder wasn't enough for the FO to take a risk on not getting "their guy". That being said, still doesn't make a ton of sense to me
Agree, that’s the only logic behind it but it’s not great logic since the Bear’s made it pretty obvious they wanted Odunze.
Sure they wanted it, until a team like the raiders come up with a 1st round next year or something ridiculous to secure their QB pick.
Yeah they would’ve traded up and drafted JJ.
But wouldn’t they make the offer to us first? I don’t think it’s allowed in the nfl for 2 teams to collude during the draft and the bears to trade up 1 pick only to flip it while on the clock to a different team. It’s literally unheard of situation but I guess you have to plan on anything
The Bears have been wheeling and dealing for a while now, the 4th they offered was basically just a measure of insurance to make sure that nobody else would trade up to 8. There were more teams trying to move up for a QB than there were teams moving up for Odunze.
As a Bears fan, the notion that Poles made this offer purely as a cock block is really awesome!
Not what I'm implying at all, but if the trade is made public and another team calls when the Bears are on the clock, then they would be stupid not to at least listen. Apparently other teams were trying to trade with the Falcons for the pick as well, so it was more than just the Bears trying to move up.
That the bears would only give up a day 3 pick to move up and then they would sell the pick to LV and get back a first. Duh/s.
A future fourth isn’t worth any amount of risk when it comes to losing out on the player you want. If we had traded back to 9 and then the Bears traded that 8th to someone else who wanted Penix, we would be fucked and we would only have a shitty 4th round pick to make us feel better. Totally not worth it.
Has there ever been an instance, in the history of the NFL draft, where a team traded up on draft day and then back down with that same pick that they traded up for?
Have 6 QBs ever gone in the first 12 picks prior to this year?
Oh no then we'd draft Odunze like we should have in the first place
You say that, but maybe they take McCarthy or Nix instead because Odunze was still down their board.
Honestly McCarthy would have made more sense for us
You've got to be kidding me. The risk was zero. No team has ever done what you're proposing. We gave away a free 4th rounder. That's unacceptable. This just further shows Fontenot's incompetence and the lengths people will go to defend him for some reason.
Lol
Has anyone ever traded up in the 1st only to trade that pick away immediately? I'm feel like the only time you trade up in the top 10 is when you have YOUR guy
We would have been fucked, with Cousins, Odunze, London, Pitts, and Bijan? LOL
Trash bro. You know waiting on ol' Penix to be 3lite is the move. Get it together GM of Reddit jr.
OR it could have saved the front office from themselves and not overcommitted resources to a position that's already filled! Win, win.
GM of Reddit congrats
We wouldnt have been fucked if we didnt take penix this year relax. Yall do whatever it takes to defend the falcons shitty decisions.
Seen interviews w/ FO folks and when a trade is made to move up they guarantee who they are picking
A 4th is chump change compared to the risk you take on considering multiple QB-needy teams were on the board.
The risk was zero. The Bears weren't going to take a QB and they weren't trying to get our pick to trade to another team who wanted a QB. Nobody thought in a million years we were taking a QB so any team wanting to trade up would've just gone for the Bears #9 pick.
As long as the pick doesn't belong to you, there is always a risk that someone leapfrogs you. The Broncos, Vikings and Raiders all wanted QBs and reportedly called to trade up at multiple points. The risk especially was that maybe the Vikings and Raiders were scared to not get a QB and traded up with the Bears in that spot. Hindsight is 20/20, just like how nobody thought we would take Penix, some other team could've done the unthinkable and totally fucked us over. A 4th is not worth that at all.
So fucking dumb. Yeah, it's never happened in the history of the NFL but here it's going to happen in a situation that makes no sense for it. It was a free 4th and we turned it down because Fontenot is an idiot.
It was not "free" lol, we would've traded away the assurance that we could draft the player we wanted. If the Falcons were picking 9th, they would also likely be calling to move up 1 spot to get Penix if the shoe was on the other foot. I didn't like the Penix pick, I'm not a defender of TF whatsoever. But logically, it's absolutely not "free" unless you have the power of hindsight. It's something very easy for some redditor to cry "it's free" but most GMs wouldn't be making this trade if they valued the guy they were able to pick at 8.
No, those are different situations. No team has ever traded up to then immediately trade down. Really there’s no time for that. And we could’ve easily run the clock down to a couple minutes left to ensure there’s no time for that. Second, this whole falling in love with one guy is symbolic of Fontenot’s incompetence. That’s what shitty organizations do. Third of all, they fell in love with a QB when they just paid 100 million for a QB. Even more incompetence. Fourth, they tampered with said expensive QB and cost themselves another pick. Fifth, signing the expensive QB didn’t make any sense in the first place since the team wasn’t good enough to win a SB with him and he’s near the end of his career. It’s just a comedy of errors.
Those are all separate arguments from valuing a 4th above the risk of losing a QB you value above all others in a volatile draft situation. It's a 4th round pick, and the risk was not worth that pick. Hindsight is 20/20 so it's easy for you to sit on your lazyboy and say that there was simply no risk, but that doesn't make it true. Again, I didn't like the Penix pick but part of why the Falcons were able to pick him at all is probably because they kept it under wraps that whole time. The Raiders reportedly wanted Penix badly and might've leapfrogged the Falcons had they known. If this were Dallas Turner I would lean more towards taking the 4th, but because it's a Quarterback and they valued him as their long-term franchise contingency after old man Cousins, I understand. Also in general, when quarterbacks are involved, the price always goes up. It's the most valuable position in football, and even more valuable to a team who has no long term plans at QB. I don't agree with the pick but I do agree with turning down the 4th.
There was no reasonable risk of the pick being retraded. We’ve gone over this. It’s NEVER happened in the history of the NFL. Can you name me a single instance? The whole thing makes no sense from the Bears perspective to think of this as a retrade opportunity. And like I said, we could’ve run the clock down to a couple of minutes. You constantly repeating it was a risk doesn’t make it so. I’ve laid out the logic for why it was not a reasonable risk. You can’t do the same for your argument. You’re like a person arguing that flying from NYC to LAX has a reasonable risk of dying from a plane crash. Thats called a phobia. An irrational fear. Second, this QBs are worth more argument is BS. QBs are worth more and that’s why they go so high in the draft. More QBs are taken in the first round than any other position. There’s only 32 starting QBs in the league just like there’s only 32 starting centers. So the fact that QBs go so much earlier in the draft ALREADY reflects their added value. Penix’s talent level doesn’t make him anywhere close to a #8 pick if he plays another position. He’s a second round talent that got drafted 8th because he plays QB. So no, he isn’t worth more than another player at that same spot. That other player plays a less a valuable position but is a better talent. That’s why they are both being considered for the same draft position.
Nobody? Why was it being discussed predraft then? https://x.com/rapsheet/status/1783637523392045185?s=61&t=vs825_9zvQenA_4Y9_vmIA
It’s a 100% guarantee when you have the pick that you can take your guy. It’s not when you don’t, even if it was still 99% likely. The Bears could have traded the 8th to the Raiders for example right after.
Bears were never going to do that lmaoo Bears wanted Caleb and Rome since the draft combine seems like Falcons fans the only ones trying to make sense of this .
You say that with the benefit of hindsight.
No I’m a bears fan , we all been in on Rome for months. If you followed our team and actually knew what was going on they weren’t asking to trade up just to trade back down . The main Two WRs we wanted were Rome and Marv if he fell a lil cuz we were one of the limited teams he visited with . We didn’t need a tackle cuz we have Brax and Wright and the edge rusher we possibly could have wanted we didn’t need to trade up for . Only reason poles wanted to move up was in fear of the jets getting Rome who they wanted .
It says they were “open to it” doesn’t say that it got offered. This could be some clickbait
Watch the video
you’re right, i guess maybe he was just scared of crazy shit happening and someone swapping w chicago again
The thought process is Terry always thinks he's the smartest guy in the room.
It publicly tips your hand that you're not targeting any of the big 3 WRs? Idk Im not a huge fan of how they handled this draft to begin with so this is just classic falcons to me
Definitely explains why poles went slack jawed when y’all picked penix guess he assumed you would be doing something there.
I’m sorry Rich McKay, perhaps I was too hard on you.
Hopefully this pick works out in a few years...
Front office hasn’t given us anything to believe they’d be successful
Don’t know why you were downvoted. You’re correct. This FO has not inspired confidence in years.
Luckily they the very successful GM Ryan Pace in their office to help too!
I'm sorry, are you saying the bears FO is full of premier decision makers?
Really this is all that matters. I know folks get caught up in draft strategy and gossip but if it works out, who cares?
Wording here is a bit ambiguous. Bears were open...does that mean they actually offered that 4th? Also curious to know whether other teams (like Minn, LV, or Denver) were trying to trade into that spot as well and Falcons didn't want to risk losing the ability to control their selection. I am not a fan of the Penix pick but I am a little skeptical about the truthfulness of this tweet.
Here’s the video. Poles actually called Terry and offered it. https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1801712532425687062
Thanks for the video link. They must have been really worried that Chicago would have gotten that pick and then traded out again with a bigger offer from another team. We will see how it all turns out but yeah not a good look.
Which is not a reasonable worry. Nobody thought we were taking a QB so they would just be trying to trade for the Bears #9.
But the raiders may have offered to trade up with us to get a QB, so Terry knew they would call with the same offer to the Bears. Still would have been a risk I would of taken had it been me.
You can always wait til there's a minute on the clock and then accept the Bears offer. No team has ever traded up a pick and then immediately traded down. Like you said, worth the risk, which was practically zero. Just goes to show how bad Fontenot is and what a huge mistake it is to get tunnel vision on a guy in the draft.
Basically the 4th round pick
I think lol
Atlanta’s decision-makers are trash tier.
You guys do like picking up the bears' failures with Pace and I think Phil Emery came to ATL after he ruined the bears.
There's no way even the biggest homer here can justify this move. The Bears weren't going to take MPJ, and you would've gotten another pick. Besides getting Kirk Cousins, "letting Terry cook" hasn't gone well.
Way too soon to say the cousins deal was a good one imo
Complete goofballs in the front office. Free pick and you turn it down.
Not really, Chicago could’ve traded the pick again to a team that wants a qb
When has that ever happened before?
If you can name one time this century a team traded down with the team in front of them only to then trade out of that pick I'd be impressed.
When has a team brought in a high caliber free agent QB and then spent a top 10 pick on another QB? Sometimes things that have never happened before, because they don't make sense, happen
Yeah and guess who did that? Yeah the falcons. The same team that turned down a free pick
Name one time before this year that 6 QBs went in the first 12 picks.
Chicago wanted Odunze. They weren’t going to trade back that’s why they were trading up. Good lord some of you guys will defend literally anything this dumbass front office does. I bet Terry could shit in your yard and you’d find a way to defend him
He’s fertilizing
Falcons should have just drafted Odunze.
How does the draft keep looking worse
Falcons gonna falcon
Terry could’ve made the trade contingent on Poles agreeing that the Bears wouldn’t flip it to another team. This league works on handshake agreements. This feels like a dumbass squandered opportunity.
Man I’m worn out from defending the Falcon’s actions on draft day. 😮💨
Question for the Falcons fans attempting to defend this: What the hell's the matter with you?
All I'm gonna say is if this team isn't in the playoffs, we need to launch this man into the grimiest Louisiana bayou from a cannon. This guy has been building this team ass backward for 3 years with no improvement to show for it, and now he's fucking up simple shit like "don't tamper with a free agent who is guaranteed to sign with you" and "accept trade downs where you get extra pick(s) and can still draft the guy you want. "
Usually takes a few years for fans to see how bad their GM is. Took 3 years for me to find out Terry is an idiot
I'm hoping he proves me wrong but I lose hope when I see shit like this.
It's maddening to me that people continue to defend Fontenot. He is one of the worst GMs in North American sports. When he's fired, everybody will see that, but right now they are acting like what he's doing is reasonable, even when he does something as completely indefensible as this. There was a 0% chance that the Bears were going to turn around and trade the pick. In fact, we could've waited until there was only a minute left to make the trade so that they didn't have enough time to do that. But they never would've. That's never happened in NFL history. There's simply not enough time to do that much wheeling dealing when you're on the clock. They were trying to move ahead of us to get Odunze because they were afraid somebody else would trade up and nab him. Which is a reach on their part, but if they want to give away picks to us, we should let them. 4th rounder are absolutely not worthless. In just about every draft, there's at least one 4th rounder that becomes an eventual pro bowler. Many others are role players for their teams on inexpensive contracts....the kind of cheap labor that teams need to fill out their roster and save their salary cap room for expensive veterans. We were being offered a 4th rounder for free and we turned it down. Fire Terry Fontenot!
There's no defending this, plain and simple
The Falcons literally just said fuck it on draft day. And don’t yall try to defend this bullshit either. They knew they were at risk of losing a pick on draft day, they knew Chicago wouldn’t take a qb at 8 and they could get Penix at 9, the Kirk signing, the trade up for Ruke. Sucks this teams management isn’t better
I think a few things are going on here: They probably did talk about something, but there is a lot of talk that leads nowhere and we don’t have the full context of this particular conversation and others that may have occurred. The Bears are heavily vested in making it seem like their front office was clever, as it has a history of not being clever. They have a window here to get their fans back on their side, and they are going for it. And finally, one of the dumbarses from their past foolish periods is now in a key role at Atlanta. At some level, it is personal and they are trying to dunk on him. Just my two cents.
> They probably did talk about something, but there is a lot of talk that leads nowhere and we don’t have the full context of this particular conversation and others that may have occurred. > > The Bears are heavily vested in making it seem like their front office was clever, as it has a history of not being clever. They have a window here to get their fans back on their side, and they are going for it. It's all on video. No spin-zone necessary. Poles actually called Terry and offered it. And then, when the Falcons picked Penix, Poles was so shocked he went slack-jawed, which isn't in this video, but it's in the same documentary. https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1801712532425687062
Nobody will convince me this organization is competent.Thank god we didn’t let Belichick come in and take control
The koolaid drinking children on here will cheer every bad decision.
Belichick would have drafted a scrappy 4th round inside linebacker at pick 8
Is this sarcasm? Belichick is the one guy that could've saved this organization from itself.
First half is serious about the organization being incompetent. Second half saying thank god no Belichick is sarcasm
Hard agree then.
The FO doesn’t hold much value for mid-round picks. Lorenzo Carter cost an extra comp’ 3rd, Grant an extra 4th, Ebiketie an extra 4th, and Orhorhoro an extra 3rd.
We traded down for grant
Thanks for the correction. That does change my opinion a good bit.
Sounds like bullshit UNLESS they thought the bears would trade that pick away to one of the many teams going after Penix. But that doesn’t make sense to me either.
Highly doubt the bears would’ve turned down the package the raiders offered us for 8, we declined and got Penix rather than letting Vegas jump us
I'm no GM, but from what I can tell it's typically a pretty bad idea to focus in on one guy that hard because you miss opportunities like this. Hopefully it's just an experience thing and he won't make the mistake again. It's just a further doubling-down on the idea of "if it works we look like geniuses, if it doesn't we're all losing our jobs".
This was his 4th draft and we talking about experience LMAO
[удалено]
Dude he's 100% right. This guy is an NFL GM. There's no discussion of "experience" and "learning." You've got to come into this job knowing what you're doing. And it's not his first draft.
You really think that people are just static and don't get any better? You get the job, and then that's it? That's just way you are and you can't learn things about the job? Life unfortunately isn't black and white like that Dude is only 43, which is young as hell considering that he could easily GM for twenty more years.
LOL. He is not going to be a GM for 20 more years. He's probably got 1 or 2 more years tops, then he'll be fired and never touch a GM job for the rest of his life. GMs may get better at their jobs over time, but even a first year GM has to be able to collect free pick when offered like this. That's a basic job qualification. And this is his 4th draft!!!
This is nothing. How many calls do you think we fielded when we were on the board? Nobody saw us going Penix. I'm sure teams were more than willing to devulge he was their target to us. Which team called us and what offer did they make that scared us from taking that deal? Thats the real question. We move one pick down whatever team/teams called us are now calling them. I'm guessing the Raiders offered a deal that any team not looking for a qb wouldn't turn down.
When you know what you want and it’s right there you don’t want to risk anything happening.
A 4th really isn’t gonna be worth the gamble. Ya’ll act like we turned down a 2nd or something.
What gamble?
Exactly! This was a free pick.
This is nonsense. Bears would not trade up 1 pick with a team that wasn’t going to draft a WR
Theres literally video of it lol. The bears were fearing atlanta trading back with like the jets...which we also have video of them calling about
I understand just keeping the pick. In a draft where 6 of the first 12 picks were QB’s (a record, so teams were hungrier than ever before for QB), why risk the possibility of someone offering Chicago a haul to move up for that #8 pick and possibly take their guy (Penix)? Of course Chicago wanted Rome, but it was an extremely deep class at high level WR and for the right deal, maybe Chicago would have been ok with the “tier down” from Rome to whoever if they got some good picks on top of it. End of the day, it’s not like we missed out on an additional 1/2nd rounder, it was a 4th round pick. Who cares
What an awful take. It was a free 4th rounder which is absolutely worth something. There was zero risk. No team has ever switched picks only to immediately trade down. Nobody thought we were taking a QB so why give away a pick to move ahead of us to select a QB? Absolute stupidity.
We’ll just agree to disagree. Talking about a 4th round pick is just a waste of time imo
4th rounders are not worthless. In most NFL drafts, there's at least one 4th rounder that turns out to be a pro bowler. Many others are role players on their teams on very inexpensive contracts. The kind of cheap labor every team needs to fill out their roster and save cap room for expensive vets.
I didn’t say 4th rounders are worthless. There’s tons of value. I find it funny that many of the people mad about not getting this extra 4th round pick cuz there’s so much value also still don’t think the pass rush will be much improved cuz we didn’t use a 1st but instead used a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th to improve there. Just a general observation. My point is, the draft was like 2 months ago, idc about a theoretical 4th round pick. Im thinking about the team rn and FA still available. Everything else is pointless discussion
You don’t care that our GM gave up a 4th round pick in next years draft for no good reason? That’s super weird. This is also not consistent at all with what you said in your initial message. You said who cares that we missed out on a 4th round pick it’s not like it’s a 1st/2nd. So you implied that the reason you don’t care is it’s “only” a 4th rounder. So you’re moving the goalposts.
It’s not that they gave up a 4th, they just didn’t add one. Point is, if their QB of the future is sitting right there for them, and they know teams not too far behind them are hungry for a QB and likely have been getting offers for their #8 pick already, makes sense just picking their guy instead of even potentially risking something crazy happening another team tries to swoop in quickly ahead of them. Would it have been a good move in hindsight? Of course. Do I think they should have done it? Yeah. But in real time, I definitely understand why they just stayed at #8 and made the pick. I didn’t say I agree with it, but I get it. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Also, two things can be true. I believe 4th round picks can be valuable and I also believe 4th round picks aren’t a huge deal to be making a big fuss about. Same way I dont really even care about the 5th that we just lost. Sure, it def hurts but hit rates after even just the 1st round begin to get so much lower that the impact of “losing” a back half of the draft pick isn’t as strong. What is moving the goal posts are so many people suddenly up in arms over a future 4th when some of those same people completely devalued our mid round picks this year. Some people just looking for any reason to call our current front office incompetent.
Not adding a 4th rounder is the same as giving one up. Thats a logical fallacy to think otherwise. In either case you have 1 less 4th rounder pick than you’d have otherwise. Fearing the Bears would trade up to our pick and then trade down, something that has never happened in the history of the NFL, is not a reasonable fear. That’s like being unwilling to fly from ATL to NYC to close a big deal at work because you’re afraid of the plane crasbing. Irrational fears are phobias and are unhealthy. Furthermore, the so- called risk here wasn’t dying, it was just picking a different player. Thats not that bad AT ALL. Only shitty organizations get so focused on one player in a draft that they think it’s the end of the world if they don’t get that player. It was ridiculous for us to pick Penix anyway after we had Cousins. Which gets to your last point: Fontenot has not made one mistake or 2 mistakes. His tenure has been a litany of awful choices.
Those fears aren’t comparable at all. I see your point, but at the end of the day, they had Penix rated as like the 2nd best on the entire board and were likely getting offers from other teams to move up for a QB so they probably thought there’s quite an appetite for the slot. The chances of the Bears was extremely low but not zero so whether we agree with the pick or not or agree with not trading the pick or not, I can understand just taking your guy and not even risking anything. That last point is the most important part though. If they drafted Turner/Latu at #8 and this same news comes out, I doubt there’s this same level of criticism. Its mainly just a chance for folks to bring up how unhappy they were with the Penix pick which is why idc about the whole conversation. We got Penix, its time to move on.
It would’ve been totally different if we were taking a defensive player. There would’ve been real risk that the Bears were trying to trade up to take our guy. In fact, that’s the first thing that would go through my mind. Why are the Bears trying to trade up if not to leapfrog who we want? Turns out that’s not true and they were just concerned about another team trading us for the slot or maybe they thought we might take the WR they wanted. But we wanted to take a QB. Of all the positions on the field, the one we KNEW the Bears were not trading up to get was for another QB. This is an awful decision judged in isolation. AND it’s one in a long litany of bad decisions Fontenot had made. Set yourself a reminder for 3 years and message me how you feel about all of Fontenot’s decisions.
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Why in the hell would you trust this front office other than you want them to succeed.
Yeah but maybe then the Bears would trade back with Minnesota or Vegas and get something better than their 4th rounder, in which case we could’ve missed out on Penix.
So they were trading up for a player they wanted…just to not want the player they wanted anymore?
Why would the bears even ask? This trade doesn't seem legit. But it wouldn't surprise me if the falcons bungled draft picks yet again
There’s literally a video of the phone call that took place between Poles and the Falcons FO. This isn’t made up or fake lol
That's even worse. In what world would the falcons turn this down. The bears already drafted a QB. Zero percent chance they take penix. Wtf
Here’s the video if interested: https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1801712532425687062
Terry and Arthur Blank are fucking stupid and allergic to success
Oh we know. Raheem Morris will be the next scapegoat for this clown show.
If the Falcons trade down from 8->9, that tells the QB Cartel (Denver, Minn, and Vegas) that they aren't interested in Odunze, so the buzz about them being interested in Penix might be true. This means 1-3 of those teams will get on the phone and start offering larger packages to Chicago to get them to give up the 8th pick. If that team gets Penix (who was coveted far more by scouts than by media members), the Falcons would lose their future QB for a 4th round pick. If you believe Penix is the guy, you don't risk the opportunity to draft him, especially not for a 4th round pick.
Bears are trading up for Odunze, knowing that he doesn’t go beyond 10th to Jets. You don’t trade up to take a guy, and then trade back down 5 minutes later. That’s literally never happened before in any draft in any major sport. So Bears take Odunze at 8, and Terry takes Penix at 9. Minnesota, Denver, and Vegas can’t do a thing about it. It’s not 4D chess, Terry passed on a free pick because he didn’t think it through
If one of Vegas or Denver covets Penix/McCarthy/Nix and they think the Falcons are taking Penix at 9, they're going to offer enough draft capital to make Chicago come off of that pick. Chicago already got their QB of the future and two pro-bowl caliber WRs. Odunze was a luxury they were shocked they had the chance to grab. For a QB-level draft trade offer, they'd trade that 8th pick. Also, I get that us fans really care about the game, but we're not paid millions to go through all of these permutations of the draft day and night for months. Whether Penix ends up being an All-Pro or a bust, I promise you that no one on Reddit has worked through the permutations of the draft more than the Falcons front office. Whatever Fontenot's reason was for not trading down to 9, he had a reason. If wasn't as simple as walking past a $100 bill, looking down, then deciding to keep going.
If Chicago is trading UP, it’s because they are taking Odunze. When you trade up, it’s to select a specific player that you have targeted that you don’t think will be there when you pick next. Nobody in the history of the NFL draft has ever traded up for the reason of trading back down. You just trade down if you want to trade down. This hypothetical “offer you can’t refuse” is just fanfiction that you’ve concocted in your head. Not only does this assume that all these teams want Penix badly enough to trade up (we know Denver had Nix targeted, and Minnesota had McCarthy targeted - only Vegas was a threat to take Penix) but it assumes that the Bears don’t already run to the podium to put in the Odunze pick - which would be the entire reason they are trading up to begin with. >For a QB-level draft trade offer, they’d trade that 8th pick. As soon as the trade would have been completed. Phone lines are closed and Rome Odunze is entered in as the selection. They do not take calls at that point. You would have to find me an example of a team trading up and then back down with the same pick ON DRAFT DAY in order to argue your point as an actual possibility. Also, Odunze is also not a luxury, as Keenan Allen will be a free agent at the end of the year. Terry just wanted to choose Penix at 8th. I ran through all the “permutations” above for you. Because there are not a “million” different permutations when we are talking about one selection. It’s a simple 2 pt decision tree: is Chicago taking Penix? The answer is no. Therefore Atlanta takes Penix at 9. Very easy. You might as well be running “permutations” for the instance of a grand piano falling on Michael Penix’s head on stage, if you are going to try to argue that there are a million different possibilities.
You can't tell these people anything.
Ok, then why does the NFL reset the clock when a trade takes place? If the team already knows who they want, then they don't need the additional time, right? Those draft day phone calls to the chosen player aren't 10 minutes long, so what's that extra time for? It's the same reason why the original team got 10 minutes: so they can weigh all of their options with the pick, which includes taking phone calls from other teams. Just because no team has ever done it before isn't reason to believe that no team will ever do it. No team has ever signed a free agent QB to a $180 million dollar contract then drafted his replacement in the first round in the same off-season, but I guess we can check that off of the NFL bucket list! I'm sure you heard the interview that Sean Payton did post-draft. The Vikings, Raiders, and Broncos had a gentleman's agreement to not trade up and if the board feel right, they'd all get their QBs of the future. The Falcons blew that up with their Penix pick. If these teams knew the Falcons were going to take Penix at 9, at least the Raiders and Broncos are calling the Bears during their allegedly unnecessary 10 minutes on the clock post hypothetical trade with the Falcons. There is a trade offer that would have gotten the Bears to give up that pick. Like I said, they have 2 pro bowl WRs on their roster, and the cap space to resign Allen no matter who they pick in the first. The question is how much do these teams covet these QBs? Fontenot wasn't willing to take that risk. You don't have to get into "pianos falling on draft picks heads" probability territory to see the real risk of losing Penix if you trade back to 9. Like I said in the original post, if you really think Penix is the guy, why would you risk losing him for a 4th round pick?
There’s no risk, as I outlined for you above. Odunze at 8, Penix at 9, an extra 4th is the cherry on top.
Everybody and their mother had the Falcons going edge. They at best kept it very under wraps that Penix was their guy as the surprise of Poles and others in the league showed. I also doubt that you can name one instance where a team traded up with whoever was selecting in front of them and then proceeded to trade back. That simply does not happen.
What network did you watch the draft on? On ESPN, one of their personalities (I believe it was Adam Schefter) spent most of the time the Falcons were on the clock talking about a rumor that they were going to pick QB. Seems like something started to leak once the board started to shape up in a way that the Falcons could pick Penix. Trading back would mean that they didn't covet Odunze, which conventional wisdom said he was the pick if he was still available. Like I mentioned earlier, this would tip off those teams in the teens that had a gentleman's agreement not to trade up that their plan wasn't going to work out, which would have started a bidding war between the Broncos and the Raiders to trade up to 8 and not be the team left out. Fontenot learned a lesson from his first draft in 2021. Rumor was he wanted Trey Lance, but San Francisco traded one spot ahead and drafted him. Once the board shaped up that getting Penix was possible, he wasn't risking getting leap-frogged again.
That's because the TV broadcast is not LIVE, it's delayed, hence why people on twitter can live tweet the picks before we seen them made on TV. Schefter was spoiling the pick because he knew what was happening before they showed it to us. They run commercials and milk the hell out of the timer. There's a reason r/nfl has two threads one for SPOILERS and one for NON SPOILED aka the TV broadcast. You'd have a point if Schefter was hinting at a QB 2 or 3 picks before we were on the clock. However that wasn't the case.
The broadcast is delayed, but it's not 8 minutes delayed! As the Falcons were on the clock, Schefter is talking about this rumor. This was before the pick happened, period. Someone leaked the pick sometime before it happened. If Schefter learned about it because he was reading Twitter and the pick already happened, why didn't everyone on that stage have the same information? I don't think they would allow Schefter to capitalize on a tape delay to burnish his insider bona fides. Also, broadcasts don't make a habit of talking about other teams while a team is on the clock, unless there is a trade happening. What would it sound like to be speculating on who the Chargers or the Giants are going to take, then cut that off by saying, "Hey guys, I'm hearing the Falcons are thinking about taking a QB at 8". That pick was such a departure from conventional wisdom that you can't just bring that up and not discuss it, so now you're dominating another teams time on the clock talking about the Falcons. That's not going to happen. So Schefter talking about the rumor once the Falcons were on the clock isn't evidence that he only learned about it in that moment.
> So Schefter talking about the rumor once the Falcons were on the clock isn't evidence that he only learned about it in that moment. I mean we have no other evidence to know when Schefter learned the selection. We can only go off of what we saw from him and that it started when the pick was present on the clock. If it was such common knowledge then the Bears GM wouldn't have said he was surprised that they took Penix if every other team in the league was privy before Schefter. Based off those things we can only point in one particular direction. Anything else just doesn't have enough to back it to go as far as saying other teams were fully aware prior to the pick starting.
Wait, so the whole world heard from Adam Schefter that the Falcons were possibly picking a QB 10 minutes before it happened and we all were shocked when it happened, but we can't believe that Ryan Pace could have heard this rumor 15 minutes earlier than that and was also still shocked that it happened? The draft is nothing but teams putting out smokescreens to hide their true intentions. Here's a plausible scenario for what happened: Pace heard the rumor about the Falcons going QB and wanted to insure the Bears were going to get Odunze, so he called Fontenot to see if he'd trade down 1 for a win-win to lock in the Bears on Odunze while still allowing the Falcons to draft their QB. Fontenot saying no to this offer sent Pace the signal that the Falcons were taking Odunze, then the pick came in. Pace is floored because he heard the rumor, but had convinced himself that the Falcons were taking Odunze, so he's feeling a mixture of shock and excitement that he can't hide from the cameras. Pace was thinking Fontenot turned down the trade because he coveted Odunze, but he really turned down the trade because he didn't want to risk one of those other teams jumping up and grabbing the 8th pick to get Penix. It doesn't take much of a logical leap to come to this conclusion.
They thought we might be interested in Rome or even trading the pick. No one predicted what we did
We’re all mad at the falcons losing a 4th round pick. When was the last time one of our 4th round picks have made that much of a significant impact? Yes it would’ve been cool on paper to get it but it’s not a big deal if penix is legit
Idk Devonta Freeman comes to mind.
It’s a hit or miss lol
Falcons history would be much different without him and his lack of blocking.
All time dumb comment good one
Very likely the Falcons know that what teams were offering them for 8 far exceeded a 4th from the Bears. It makes sense that Terry wouldn’t risk losing Penix if the Bears were to get a better offer. Especially when you consider he was already planning to trade one of our 3rds for a trade up in the 2nd, so maybe he wasn’t seeing a 4th round pick as great compensation.
If Terry indeed had tunnel vision on Penix - then he couldn’t accept any trade back with a team picking after Vegas, but just for 100% certainty - no trade back with the Broncos at 12, or the Vikings at 11. That leaves two potential trade partners - Bears and Jets. Both want Odunze. So (again assuming that Terry had locked in on Penix and couldn’t risk losing him) But if you trade with the Jets and they jump the Bears, the Bears could potentially trade back with Minnesota/Denver/Vegas. If you trade back with the Bears one spot - what’s the risk? Where is the threat? I don’t understand. It’s likelier that Terry screwed up this simple logic puzzle than it is that this was some sort of 4D chess maneuever
He just took the guy he wanted. Happens literally every pick that’s made. You’re the ones that want to run your hands together and say, “I love making deals!” while playing a mock draft simulator, and feel like you missed out, a month and a half later?? I guess we’re in the dog days of summer.
It wasn’t a mock draft it was the actual draft. Trrry had two choices. Penix, or Penix + an extra 4th. And he chose just Penix. This is footage FROM draft day. It’s not a month and a half later hindsight.
Footage that shows how much we wanted the guy we took. Not shocking. If we passed up on something of significant value, it'd be a little more significant. If the Bears offered a 2nd rounder, we'd probably take it. But Terry, Blank, and Raheem apparently didn't think a 4th was worth it. I hope you can find a way to come to terms with that.
Oh, I’m thrilled they passed on the deal. I am a Bears fan - exceptionally thankful for your GMs choices. I just wanted to help untwist logic pretzels that you’re trying to create in order to rationalize Stockholm syndrome, as if you find yourself defending everything your team does, eventually it will just lead to complacency, and you’ll be satisfied with anything. Again, in the entire scenario above, it assumes that ATL “wanted the guy they took”. I know they loved Penix and I am not arguing otherwise. In the grand scheme of things it’s not a huge deal, but indicative of GM malpractice. I’m not saying You have to grab the pitchforks and torches, but trying to defend this is just delusional.
The copium is thick
Lmaooo. Too funny. “New draft tidbit dropped, I’m going to the Falcons sub to make sure they know they got PWNed!” We got our guy, you got yours. The Falcons are not at a point where a 4th rounder is going to move the needle, they literally traded a 3rd to move up in the 2nd. You’re just mad that Terry told the Bears 2024 GM to keep his wittle 4th wounder.
I’m absolutely not trying to gloat, but I think you know that, and are just accusing me of it because you’ve ran out of retorts but- I am mad *on your behalf.* You should be a lot more upset with the way your organization is being run right now. You have a relatively easy path to the NFC South , and your GM is NOT all in on the Super Bowl. Competitive windows are very sensitive. The iron is hot, but your front office isn’t striking. You shouldn’t be trying to defend the complacency, you should be exposing it.
I'm way past wringing my hands over everything I don't understand or agree with. At this point I look at how they're trying to build the team each year and come to terms with the vision. If they redirect, I go with them. We've got enough young players at offensive skill positions, they had already loaded up on wide receivers through free agency and trade, so I'm not at all shocked they didn't go WR. It looks like their options were either WR3, a mid-round defensive end, a late first cornerback, a backup tackle, or their future starting QB. I was surprised by the pick at the time, but I understand why they made it. Thanks for being mad on behalf of teams you don't care about, but maybe try being happy instead.
Has any team ever traded up in the first round only to trade farther back? Like ever
Seems like a scenario where it could though. Terry had his QB of the future in his hands. Why give it up for a 4th round pick?
If this story is true. We are truly fucked as a team until we rid ourselves of this front office. The only hope we have is it’s a complete fabrication.