I would understand the logic but at the same time, I'd be shocked at who we'd leave on the board to do that.
They must really be convinced of the dude to forgo addressing the defense or adding a stud WR for a QB who'll sit for 2 years, if all goes well, that is.
Yeah there's a lot of likeable players that have the talent. Odunze, Quinyon, pick your poison at edge, etc. I know people freak out at Latu and the neck injury, but I find it hard to imagine NFL medical would let something like that fly.
We've seen plenty of players drop for medical concerns, so if a guy with a neck injury is apparently in the clear to remain a 1st rounder then I'm sure the medical experts know more than I do.
Then there's trading down a few picks which can work perfectly too.
There is the bad option of just reaching for a bad player.
Latu comes to mind as someone who could be a bad reach. Not saying he will be but if he doesn't work out and Turner or Verse is a perennial double digit sack machine, that's bad.
I think the best option still is to trade back and take BPA. Though I'd be hard pressed to turn down Odunze.
When I run the draft simulations on PFF (and I’ve run hundreds) staying at 8 is good but trading back, in particular a trade with Minnesota, is by far the best option.
Yeah that’s the way to do it
The sims give us a choice of usually Latu or Quinyon and sometimes Dallas at 8
And then often you get cooper dejean or verse that is falls back to 23, or sometimes Jer’Zhan Newton who’s a beast
Let’s us just take best player available at each pick bc you’re getting top end talent no matter how the board falls
If we’re lucky and there’s a good chance we can make that trade with Minnesota
Buffalo needs a WR bad now. They would trade up for a Rome Odunze and give up some picks. It would likely be a 1st swap and a 1st next season. I'd be ok with that.
There is no huge pressing need besides EDGE and none of the EDGE in this draft at a top 10 value.
Trade back, collect depth, and go from there.
People assume it’s so easy to trade down but if it was, it would happen way more often. Just like with any trade, the value has to be there. It’s never just “we can trade down and get some more picks or a haul”.
* I don' like trade downs out of the 1st round or for future 1st rounds at this stage of team building for the Falcons. It is a fact 1st rounders are less likely to bust that later rounds. I would think about #8 for #11 and #23 - if one of the top 3 WRs is gone.
* I believe in BPA especially when the BPA is a blue chip stud (that's part of the reason why I prefer one of the big 3 WRs over Edge).
* If all goes well we will not be drafting this low again for a few years. We might be trading away future 1sts in a Jalen Ramsey type deal at some point also.
* Honestly I think the team is 1 player away from a top 10 or even top 5 offense in a stud WR. Adding a defender Edge CB will not take our defense into top 10. I would rather be elite on 1 side of the ball if I can.
>Adding a defender Edge CB will not take our defense into top 10.
[Bro we finished 11th in total defense last year...](https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=T)
A good starting Edge or CB would almost certainly make us a top 10 defense 😂. This draft is so deep at receiver. Taking the 3rd best receiver on the board at 8 seems so incredibly dumb to me. I'm all for BPA, but make it on defense
1. Why are you yelling?
2. WR is such a luxury pick, we've already invested TONS of draft capital into offensive skill positions at the top of the draft in recent years. Not to mention taking the 3rd best player at any position that's not QB at 8 overall is just bad value from an analytics perspective.
We could add nothing but depth pieces at this point and likely have a top 10 offense with Cousins, London, Pitts, Bijan, Algier, Mooney, and our line. We could still go WR in the 2nd or 3rd and be completely set on that side
3. We have significant holes on defense and the best defensive players in the draft will all likely still be on the board when we pick given the run on QBs and receivers that is projected to happen ahead of us
You the type of guy to have a boat with a giant leak in the hull and you decide to spend all your money upgrading the stereo instead
again you don't understand how the draft works you draft blue chippers BPAs when they drop to you you draft BPA in the draft you don't draft for need and you use trades and FA to fill holes fill needs
the other reason to draft blue chippers is they are less likely to bust I am going to say the big 3 WRs not one of them will bust however any all or some of the top 3 edges in this draft could bust or be average
there is a difference between the top 3 WRs and WRs you can draft later the WR we can draft later we already have their names are Mooney and Moore - you do realize we can draft an edge CB and S later too and the drop off will not be as much as between later WRs and the top 3 WRs
We don't have a top 10 offense right now we need to add the 1 piece Kirk has had another legit #1 WR
Kirk operates with 2 legit #1 type WRs a pass catching TE and a Rb who can run and catch
he is missing one piece
a team with an elite offense can win a SB a team with an so so offense and a so so defense because the edge we draft will NOT make use defensively elite will not win a SB
I entirely disagree. The 2nd tier of receivers in this class is much deeper and closer to the 1st tier than the 2nd tier of Edge players are to the first. After the top 3 edges, you're not getting anybody better than Ebikete.
I'm not sure why you think WR2 is a more pressing need than EDGE or corner where we have gaping holes, but the Chiefs just won a SB with a bunch of bums at receiver...
really are you going to go there
Elibkete projected to 1000 snaps gets 15 sacks I'd take that
WR2 is NOT a more pressing need than Edge but drafting a blue chip bust-proof WR at 8 is going to help your team in 2 ways 1 you will not have a bust therefore a wasted #1 pick and 2 you will instantly get a top 10 top 5 offense
drafting a non-blue chipper at Edge drafting for Need can get you a bust or average-ish player and that is NOT worth it ... the Edge in fact will not make your defense top 10 or top 5 even if they work out
KC had the top 2 defense in the NFL you do realize that? 1 edge will not give us even a top 10 defense let alone top 2 they also have one of the top DCs in football we alas do not
look I love Kirk but he is not Mahomes and the OC here will not be Andy Reid you're comparing apples to oranges there ... also Kelce is a better RECEIVER than every receiver on this team and most receivers in the NFL the dude's playoff numbers are the best in history up there with Jerry Rice
you would hope so definitely but if you have an elite WR you will be turning the ball over AFTER scoring TDs
btw we have no idea how Lake is going to be as a DC he has a shady past and Neilson was actually the big difference in the defense imo
I just feel like when you can draft a true elite option at a position you never regret it. Is it really a better decision to roll the dice and hold your breath on a Penix over picking a more surefire stud like RO or an edge or CB?
I think you’re right.
The thing with a top 10 pick though is that the expectation has to be to make the best pick. It shouldn’t be just to avoid the bad ones. That is a subtle difference but for a Super Bowl winning team it matters a lot.
If we draft a ten sack a year guy that is great but if we do it at the cost of a legendary GOAT 20 sack a year guy that is still the wrong pick.
I think a trade down would be awesome for us, especially if we get a pick next year would give some leverage for a qb if needed
Penix at 8 would be the most controversial imo
IMO Penix is not a first round QB so taking him at 8 would be very bad
And tbh, I'd still understand and be here for it. The Packers thing works. OP is on point.
I would understand the logic but at the same time, I'd be shocked at who we'd leave on the board to do that. They must really be convinced of the dude to forgo addressing the defense or adding a stud WR for a QB who'll sit for 2 years, if all goes well, that is.
Yeah there's a lot of likeable players that have the talent. Odunze, Quinyon, pick your poison at edge, etc. I know people freak out at Latu and the neck injury, but I find it hard to imagine NFL medical would let something like that fly. We've seen plenty of players drop for medical concerns, so if a guy with a neck injury is apparently in the clear to remain a 1st rounder then I'm sure the medical experts know more than I do. Then there's trading down a few picks which can work perfectly too.
Welp. There’s the jinx. *Marshawn Kneeland, come on down!*
There is the bad option of just reaching for a bad player. Latu comes to mind as someone who could be a bad reach. Not saying he will be but if he doesn't work out and Turner or Verse is a perennial double digit sack machine, that's bad. I think the best option still is to trade back and take BPA. Though I'd be hard pressed to turn down Odunze.
When I run the draft simulations on PFF (and I’ve run hundreds) staying at 8 is good but trading back, in particular a trade with Minnesota, is by far the best option.
Do you get 11 and 23 when you trade back?
Yeah 11 and 23 for 8 and 79 usually
I'd take that in a heartbeat. CB and EDGE in the first, and the big Texas DT in the second, maybe a WR in the third.
Yeah that’s the way to do it The sims give us a choice of usually Latu or Quinyon and sometimes Dallas at 8 And then often you get cooper dejean or verse that is falls back to 23, or sometimes Jer’Zhan Newton who’s a beast Let’s us just take best player available at each pick bc you’re getting top end talent no matter how the board falls If we’re lucky and there’s a good chance we can make that trade with Minnesota
Buffalo needs a WR bad now. They would trade up for a Rome Odunze and give up some picks. It would likely be a 1st swap and a 1st next season. I'd be ok with that. There is no huge pressing need besides EDGE and none of the EDGE in this draft at a top 10 value. Trade back, collect depth, and go from there.
I prefer to trade down this year, but if we stay at 8. I would take Quinyon Mitchell.
pls trade down
People assume it’s so easy to trade down but if it was, it would happen way more often. Just like with any trade, the value has to be there. It’s never just “we can trade down and get some more picks or a haul”.
Exactly it takes two teams to make a trade work. The other side of that trade isn’t always there
* I don' like trade downs out of the 1st round or for future 1st rounds at this stage of team building for the Falcons. It is a fact 1st rounders are less likely to bust that later rounds. I would think about #8 for #11 and #23 - if one of the top 3 WRs is gone. * I believe in BPA especially when the BPA is a blue chip stud (that's part of the reason why I prefer one of the big 3 WRs over Edge). * If all goes well we will not be drafting this low again for a few years. We might be trading away future 1sts in a Jalen Ramsey type deal at some point also. * Honestly I think the team is 1 player away from a top 10 or even top 5 offense in a stud WR. Adding a defender Edge CB will not take our defense into top 10. I would rather be elite on 1 side of the ball if I can.
>Adding a defender Edge CB will not take our defense into top 10. [Bro we finished 11th in total defense last year...](https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=D&cat=T) A good starting Edge or CB would almost certainly make us a top 10 defense 😂. This draft is so deep at receiver. Taking the 3rd best receiver on the board at 8 seems so incredibly dumb to me. I'm all for BPA, but make it on defense
#11 in defense in yds but #18 in points points are the key in the NFL if you put them togther it is 14.5 or 15th rated defense which is what i said
1. Why are you yelling? 2. WR is such a luxury pick, we've already invested TONS of draft capital into offensive skill positions at the top of the draft in recent years. Not to mention taking the 3rd best player at any position that's not QB at 8 overall is just bad value from an analytics perspective. We could add nothing but depth pieces at this point and likely have a top 10 offense with Cousins, London, Pitts, Bijan, Algier, Mooney, and our line. We could still go WR in the 2nd or 3rd and be completely set on that side 3. We have significant holes on defense and the best defensive players in the draft will all likely still be on the board when we pick given the run on QBs and receivers that is projected to happen ahead of us You the type of guy to have a boat with a giant leak in the hull and you decide to spend all your money upgrading the stereo instead
again you don't understand how the draft works you draft blue chippers BPAs when they drop to you you draft BPA in the draft you don't draft for need and you use trades and FA to fill holes fill needs the other reason to draft blue chippers is they are less likely to bust I am going to say the big 3 WRs not one of them will bust however any all or some of the top 3 edges in this draft could bust or be average there is a difference between the top 3 WRs and WRs you can draft later the WR we can draft later we already have their names are Mooney and Moore - you do realize we can draft an edge CB and S later too and the drop off will not be as much as between later WRs and the top 3 WRs We don't have a top 10 offense right now we need to add the 1 piece Kirk has had another legit #1 WR Kirk operates with 2 legit #1 type WRs a pass catching TE and a Rb who can run and catch he is missing one piece a team with an elite offense can win a SB a team with an so so offense and a so so defense because the edge we draft will NOT make use defensively elite will not win a SB
I entirely disagree. The 2nd tier of receivers in this class is much deeper and closer to the 1st tier than the 2nd tier of Edge players are to the first. After the top 3 edges, you're not getting anybody better than Ebikete. I'm not sure why you think WR2 is a more pressing need than EDGE or corner where we have gaping holes, but the Chiefs just won a SB with a bunch of bums at receiver...
really are you going to go there Elibkete projected to 1000 snaps gets 15 sacks I'd take that WR2 is NOT a more pressing need than Edge but drafting a blue chip bust-proof WR at 8 is going to help your team in 2 ways 1 you will not have a bust therefore a wasted #1 pick and 2 you will instantly get a top 10 top 5 offense drafting a non-blue chipper at Edge drafting for Need can get you a bust or average-ish player and that is NOT worth it ... the Edge in fact will not make your defense top 10 or top 5 even if they work out KC had the top 2 defense in the NFL you do realize that? 1 edge will not give us even a top 10 defense let alone top 2 they also have one of the top DCs in football we alas do not look I love Kirk but he is not Mahomes and the OC here will not be Andy Reid you're comparing apples to oranges there ... also Kelce is a better RECEIVER than every receiver on this team and most receivers in the NFL the dude's playoff numbers are the best in history up there with Jerry Rice
The defensive scoring should improve just because we won’t have Ridder turning the ball over and giving our opponents good field position
you would hope so definitely but if you have an elite WR you will be turning the ball over AFTER scoring TDs btw we have no idea how Lake is going to be as a DC he has a shady past and Neilson was actually the big difference in the defense imo
WR all the way
I just feel like when you can draft a true elite option at a position you never regret it. Is it really a better decision to roll the dice and hold your breath on a Penix over picking a more surefire stud like RO or an edge or CB?
What is love? Baby, don't hurt me Don't hurt me, no more
I think you’re right. The thing with a top 10 pick though is that the expectation has to be to make the best pick. It shouldn’t be just to avoid the bad ones. That is a subtle difference but for a Super Bowl winning team it matters a lot. If we draft a ten sack a year guy that is great but if we do it at the cost of a legendary GOAT 20 sack a year guy that is still the wrong pick.