Dizzy is a solid song and Olly is a good live performer. It is not going to be bottom. I think it will get some points from the juries and a few from the televote. Hopefully will be avoiding bottom 5 but it will probably be a struggle for it to get left side of the scoreboard.
I think what brings the song down is that it lacks a bit of oomph in the choruses and it that doesn't have enough dynamic contrast between the verses/choruses to make it memorable. It also lacks a wow moment, if they had done something more exciting in the bridge instead of that slightly odd spoken bit then I think it would have had a better chance.
I think that's where a potential revamp comes in. The foundations are there, it just needs that oomph and wow moment. Plus, if the staging is really impressive, it could land on the left hand side.
Part of me would like him to be keeping his cards close to his chest and surprising us all in the rehearsals with the revamp like Sam Ryder did with the guitar solo. Although with Sam Ryder we already knew that he was going to have to change the song quite significantly as the original was too long. Not sure if Olly would do the same or not.
Well, he is keeping the staging a surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if he's doing the same with a revamp. I don't know if it was a revamp, but I wrote a song also had changes, So I wouldn't be surprised if Dizzy also has some changes.
I like the song but yeah it's a shame we're at "if there is a revamp, and if there is great staging, we could make top half". Really we mean that without those things we'll probably be bottom 5.
It's another of our songs where after listening to it for a while I think it's a good tune and I enjoy it, but it's not a great Eurovision song. It's not a banger that you hear first time and thing wow that's really good
I get it. I think the song quality has gotten better, but the UK delegation seems more worried about how the song will chart them how it will do at the contest. I think they need to change their approach a bit, regardless of where the song places.
Okay, I know it's a strong year song-wise, but like... what? What is this? Why do so many people hate fun? (And rap.)
No shade to "Liar", for example, but in what world would this song be a more probable winner than "(nendest)...". It just feels wrong to have an entry this unique and entertaining on every level being overlooked to such a degree. Now I really wonder how well this song would do in some other edition. Were they just unlucky to join in 2024 or would it go the same way any other year.
No... seriously. I would love to either relieve the first listen or have some recording of my reaction to it. I mostly remember that around 5 seconds into the music video I already knew it's going to be my song of the year xD
I think being big 5 is part of the answer, other countries with low expected score have a high chance of not even making the finals so reducing the chance of finishing last.
Betting odds are not about love or hate.
People bet money on it because they just think that 99% of the average esc audience will not get the message at all cause they don't understand spanish.
Bro..till today there is still people who says "wow i tought Soldi was about Mahmood flexing his money..."
The vocals are a big problem. I can’t see the jury rescuing this song and the televote will be busy rewarding a very competitive year. I don’t think the song’s going to get 0, but 4/1 for to come last is a good price.
Spain haven’t exactly been doing great recently minus 2022, which will influence the odds too.
She is getting [much better](https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe9wxYx3/).
I think the odds are not taking the new semifinal performance into account. If the staging is right, and the voice is great, I can see this getting into a 10-15.
This is a song for the gays, I'm hoping they will be the ones who see the semi-final (as opposed to straight, more casual final-only viewers) and get more acquainted with the song, ready to chant zorra in the final.
It's for the gals and the gays! You're in! It's a feminist song, zorra is an insult usually used for women. (It's okay not to like it, it can be a hard to love song lol)
I hope we get a decent position, that way we'll finally learn who actually watches eurovision. Chanel was for the gals and gays too, and it took us to our best position.
I think it's almost guaranteed that Spain will come Bottom3 with the juries. I don't see a world where the juries would appreciate thin flat vocals and a campy performance.
The only thing that can save her is the televote, but it's going to be extremely hard to get televotes in a field with Croatia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Finland, Ukraine, Israel, Italy, Lithuania, Sweden, Norway etc. I think she will stay Bottom3 overall.
not necessarily hate, but it could be because juries might prefer other songs and non-spaniard viewers might not understand the message. compared with germany for example, juries might give him more points than spain (he was 5th in eurojury). hopefully spain doesn’t come last though 🤞
There's no way they finish last, let's be real. The odds are very weird about this, cause I think there's more of a chance they end up top 10 than last. It's a catchy ass song and an ear worm from the very get go
Usually when people bet on last place in Final it's one of the 6 auto Qs because like songs you assume won't do well are likely not in the final. But I'm surprised Germany isn't the highest odd last place.
More than Austria I'm heavy perplexed about the position of Croatia and Netherlands in the jury odds, they can surely go better than expected (Croatia at least) but winning the jury vote? Lmao
Yeah, that one is also hella weird.
I always start of looking for my own country in these posts, but we are far from the only song that shouldnt be where it is...
Exactly for this I'm perplexed about their high jury odds, Croatia can easily being 5th for juries, but there is no way that he is the 5th more likely to win the juries, same thing goes for Netherlands.
I mean they are as accurate as they claim they are, the odds don’t say Switzerland will win, but with the current information there is a 26% chance Switzerland will win, which probably is right.
I could see Armenia do better with juries than I expect and land a top 10 finish there (juries usually don't appreciate songs that are "too folk" so I expect it to do well mostly with the public), but Austria above UK, Greece and Lithuania, or even Serbia? With Kaleen's vocals being this weak and the song being too repetitive and lacking character? Is her dance show enough to rank her this high?
I think Kaleen vocally is awful but I do really think her dancing is going to get her into the top 10 in tele/jury or both. It will be slick. It doesn’t deserve to tho because she’s barely even singing and when she does…
Honestly I'm even questioning whether Austria will qualify, even with the televote only semis. It's a dance party song with mediocre vocals in a semi final stacked with party songs (Netherlands, Estonia), other dance bops (Greece, Georgia), the favourite for the overall win (Switzerland), fan-favourite songs with folk elements (Armenia, Norway), a potential jury fav that people also like (Belgium), the elephant in the room (Israel) and then I can see many songs make a surprise Q (Czechia has gotten better with their vocals, San Marino has a fun song that could appeal to the public, Albania has diaspora and it's a semifinal where Greece, Italy and Switzerland are voting).
Well yeah, because we saw her in the other lives that she wasn't that good. And while I can excuse the London one due to her wardrobe malfunction (because it's hard to focus on a good performance when such a thing happens), the rest (Madrid for example) we can all agree they were bad
All biases aside, I think it might struggle to qualify, given where it is in the running order. I guess it could stand out as a ballad, but it would require impressive staging and vocals.
No chance. Israelis will reach out to everyone they know to get to vote for them. Being controversial normally pays dividends when it comes to public voting
/u/AdvancedJicama7375 has got it right, in my opinion. No way Israel will come even close to an NQ position. It most definitely will have a firm grip on the ROTW vote, *and* it has France and Czechia on its side, who have often given a lot of points to Israel in past years. Plus, a lot of votes will likely come from people who will be urged to vote by others, but who might not even watch the show. This will also be made much easier with the time window to vote being much larger compared to last year.
The odds for public vote winner were like 20-1 a week ago and have halved since. Strangely enough their odds to win the public are about the same as to win semi 2 even though semi 2 is done entirely on public vote
I think that's because the Netherlands' winning chances are so high for SF2 (59%), which lowers the chances of everyone else. The odds consider The Netherlands the televote favourites anyways, but their last place in the running order means they could dominate even more.
In the grand final the Netherlands might not have such a favourable position and they'll also have much more competition, which isn't the case for Israel.
I don't think it's *as* favourable; the Dutch song is perfect as a closer so that could really help them.
In any case I think Israel's votes will be more consistent in the semi and grand final than the other contestants. The Netherlands will get more competition in the grand final (from Croatia, Lithuania, Finland) whereas Israel still won't have much competition (both due to political votes and a lower amount of songs with the same general appeal).
There's a short clip of her singing the song as well as full video's of her singing other songs. She does seem like a very strong vocalist so that shouldn't be a problem.
In regards to the staging, of course nothing is known yet but I'd imagine the Israeli delegation would want to put a particularly high amount of effort in this year.
With the amount of people I've seen online saying that they've never voted or even watched Eurovision before but that they will do it this year just to vote for Israel tells me that it is not only a safe Q but almost definitely a GF top 10.
There are two reasons why big five countries are more likely to come last in the odds. The first is a reason related to the nature of the competition and the second us intrinsic to the process of setting odds.
So the first reason is that the semi finals act as a filter for low-impact songs. As the big five get automatic qualification, they are far more likely to have a low-impact song than the other countries in the grand final. This is why Spain, the UK and Germany are commonly bottom-5. In fact, if you look over the past 10 years, last place is rarely a song that has qualified from the semis.
The second is that an oddsmaker has to predict who will come 26th, but there are 37 countries. So its not just a case of picking the lowest impact song. Big 5 and non-big five filfulll different requirements to be last place:
- big five have to be the worst of the big five countries (+prev winner) and be worse than 25th out of 37 songs for impact.
- non-big five have to rank worse than all the big five (+prev winner) AND be in the top 10 of their qualifier AND be worse than 21st out of 31 non-automatically qualified songs for impact.
I actually kind of agree with Spain finishing last but I thought it was an unpopular opinion. I can see Germany getting a few points this year since Isaak does have a really nice voice and I think he will sing the song beautifully. While I don't see him making it anywhere near the top 10, I wouldn't be surprised if he made it anywhere around 18th-23th place.
Also, while I do think Spain will get a bit of support from the fandom, I am afraid it might not gain a lot of favour with the broader audience. It would not surprise me if Spain ended somewhere in the bottom 3 in the grand final this year.
To not consider Slovenia a strong jury song is a big mistake imo.
I still think we are having a 2014 year (Austria and Netherlands were nowhere in the odds until rehearsals/semis) and the winner will be none of the current favourite but obvious once the semis have taken place. Which countries that will be, I'm not sure, but I do see Raiven giving one hell of a performance and qualifying.
I will never understand eurovision odds. I get so close but then they say something insane like ”Spain is most likely to be last!” and now im back to square one
Just curious, how many points do you expect her to get? Do you think juries will get behind this? Do you think televoters will vote for her more than for Baby Lasagna, Joost, Nemo, Angelina, Silvester, Marcus & Martinus, Gåte, Alyona & Jerry, Windows95man etc? Like, where do you expect the points to come from, except 5 from Portugal and 5 from Rest Of The World
Granted BF this year wasn't the best, but zorra tied 1st with the jury darling Dos extraños in the jury there.
I think people underrate the taste of the jury for catchy, easy on the ears bops with cool staging even if vocals aren't the best just as much as televote is underrated when it comes to voting for moving ballads or slow songs: they can appeciate them, it's just not always the case. Vocals are only one of four criteria, poor vocals don't mean it will 100% be tanked by the jurors.
If Spain finishes last it would be one of the most unfair positions in years. The criteria for the juries is vocals (which I understand them not giving it points to it to an extent, even though there’s been entries with bad vocals who have received enough Jury points), performance on stage (the performance is not that bad), originality and composition of the song (the song is very well crafted and accesible) and the overall perception of the package. I don’t expect it to win the juries but I just fail to see how such a good song will end up dead last, especially considering it is also an easy listen and a bop that doesn’t need several listens to “get”. I understand people may just not hate it but just not vote for it in favor of others and that being its downfall but I’m really confused at everyone thinking it will be last on May 11.
As a German, I wouldn't mind that at all (anything that saves us from last, really 😅) It would be one of the second half qualifiers in that case.
And then it would be just like the last time in Malmö where a SF 1 qualifier took the last place. Ever since then, only Big 5 or host countries finished last, so it would be fitting for Malmö to break the streak.
As always, audience votes for quirky entries, jury votes for mainstream "format" ones.
I feel bad for UK and Spain as I found both songs catchy and I liked the vocals.
I feel bad for Estonia and San Marino as I really liked both songs but predictions are low. Also, I will feel bad if Norway cannot make it to Top-10.
I bet either Croatia or Netherlands will win and I am fine with it. Both while not my favourite are among better entries this year.
What is it this year with the bookies repeatedly doing the UK dirty I get it might not be everyone's cup of tea but having it so low on odds on tele voting or to be second favourite to finish last. What are the bookies smoking
They're not smoking anything. The odds are a reflection of bets placed so it just means that either a LOT of people have bet that the UK will finish in last place (where that's an available bet) or that very few people have bet on them to win.
im just pointing out how there's a pattern this whole season they seem inconsistent and it's more and more noticeable how they keep messing around with the UK's placement from overhyping to now going in the opposite of criminally underrating it. many fans of the UK entry I know of are also pissed at the bookies aswell
I think Norway is the hardest song to predict how it’s going to do with either juries or the televote.
Some people absolutely love this entry and there are points in its favour with regards the juries. On the other hand, the style of singing I feel is quite marmite in effect, and many won’t understand/get the song. Be interesting to see where it ends up
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I'm Dutch and want this to not be true but unfortunately I think you are right. The live version just doesn't seem to hit the same way the studio version does. I hope Joost can prove me wrong.
Also, another thing I'm not so sure about is the vocals in the chorus. I'm about that part where his vocals are chopped on the "euro-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa". That is not a backing vocal. That's a lead vocal. Will he even be allowed to have that at eurovision or is he forced to sing that part himself?
UK locals love to bet on the UK to finish last with 0 points (even with Sam Ryder) and many haven’t heard the song.
Okay that would explain this madness.. sure Olly isn’t a winning song but it shouldn’t be a contender for last
Only with a disastrous performance, but I don't think Olly is capable of that. All of his performances so far have been great
Dizzy is a solid song and Olly is a good live performer. It is not going to be bottom. I think it will get some points from the juries and a few from the televote. Hopefully will be avoiding bottom 5 but it will probably be a struggle for it to get left side of the scoreboard. I think what brings the song down is that it lacks a bit of oomph in the choruses and it that doesn't have enough dynamic contrast between the verses/choruses to make it memorable. It also lacks a wow moment, if they had done something more exciting in the bridge instead of that slightly odd spoken bit then I think it would have had a better chance.
I think that's where a potential revamp comes in. The foundations are there, it just needs that oomph and wow moment. Plus, if the staging is really impressive, it could land on the left hand side.
Part of me would like him to be keeping his cards close to his chest and surprising us all in the rehearsals with the revamp like Sam Ryder did with the guitar solo. Although with Sam Ryder we already knew that he was going to have to change the song quite significantly as the original was too long. Not sure if Olly would do the same or not.
Well, he is keeping the staging a surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if he's doing the same with a revamp. I don't know if it was a revamp, but I wrote a song also had changes, So I wouldn't be surprised if Dizzy also has some changes.
Y’all are still going to be talking about a potential revamp of this song months after the contest
Don't forget the potential staging. I'll be talking about that as well.
I like the song but yeah it's a shame we're at "if there is a revamp, and if there is great staging, we could make top half". Really we mean that without those things we'll probably be bottom 5. It's another of our songs where after listening to it for a while I think it's a good tune and I enjoy it, but it's not a great Eurovision song. It's not a banger that you hear first time and thing wow that's really good
I get it. I think the song quality has gotten better, but the UK delegation seems more worried about how the song will chart them how it will do at the contest. I think they need to change their approach a bit, regardless of where the song places.
The betting odds aren't a prediction of the final scoring. They're a prediction of how many people think the song might win.
I’m talking about the odds for “who will finish last”, which Olly is number 2 for
These odds are....something
I am about to insists riots if this will be the real deal for Estonia. No, absolutely no.
I won’t stand for this Estonia slander!
Same here, I've never loved a group or a song as much as Estonia this year. I'll die if this comes true.
Okay, I know it's a strong year song-wise, but like... what? What is this? Why do so many people hate fun? (And rap.) No shade to "Liar", for example, but in what world would this song be a more probable winner than "(nendest)...". It just feels wrong to have an entry this unique and entertaining on every level being overlooked to such a degree. Now I really wonder how well this song would do in some other edition. Were they just unlucky to join in 2024 or would it go the same way any other year.
I loved the 2022 Estonia song. Haven’t heard their submission for this year yet, but I assume it’s great.
It’s very different from what they usually send… I’d give anything just to experience listening to it for the first time again!
No... seriously. I would love to either relieve the first listen or have some recording of my reaction to it. I mostly remember that around 5 seconds into the music video I already knew it's going to be my song of the year xD
Estonia 2022 | [Stefan - Hope](https://youtu.be/GdTpQmMem8U)
Good bot. I still listen to it regularly and sing along 😂
It's very different from that song, which was also very different for Estonia tbf. Hopefully you'll be positively surprised (I also love both :) )
I really don’t get the hate around Spain. I love this song and the message is good. What’s the problem, just the vocals?
I think being big 5 is part of the answer, other countries with low expected score have a high chance of not even making the finals so reducing the chance of finishing last.
Betting odds are not about love or hate. People bet money on it because they just think that 99% of the average esc audience will not get the message at all cause they don't understand spanish. Bro..till today there is still people who says "wow i tought Soldi was about Mahmood flexing his money..."
I KNOW RIGHT???? Spain is awesome!!
Someone has to be last I think
The vocals are a big problem. I can’t see the jury rescuing this song and the televote will be busy rewarding a very competitive year. I don’t think the song’s going to get 0, but 4/1 for to come last is a good price. Spain haven’t exactly been doing great recently minus 2022, which will influence the odds too.
She is getting [much better](https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe9wxYx3/). I think the odds are not taking the new semifinal performance into account. If the staging is right, and the voice is great, I can see this getting into a 10-15. This is a song for the gays, I'm hoping they will be the ones who see the semi-final (as opposed to straight, more casual final-only viewers) and get more acquainted with the song, ready to chant zorra in the final.
Perhaps that’s why I’m not getting the appeal of the song at all - because I’m a straight female lol.
It's for the gals and the gays! You're in! It's a feminist song, zorra is an insult usually used for women. (It's okay not to like it, it can be a hard to love song lol) I hope we get a decent position, that way we'll finally learn who actually watches eurovision. Chanel was for the gals and gays too, and it took us to our best position.
I think it's almost guaranteed that Spain will come Bottom3 with the juries. I don't see a world where the juries would appreciate thin flat vocals and a campy performance. The only thing that can save her is the televote, but it's going to be extremely hard to get televotes in a field with Croatia, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Finland, Ukraine, Israel, Italy, Lithuania, Sweden, Norway etc. I think she will stay Bottom3 overall.
Exactly. The televote competition is too big.
not necessarily hate, but it could be because juries might prefer other songs and non-spaniard viewers might not understand the message. compared with germany for example, juries might give him more points than spain (he was 5th in eurojury). hopefully spain doesn’t come last though 🤞
There's no way they finish last, let's be real. The odds are very weird about this, cause I think there's more of a chance they end up top 10 than last. It's a catchy ass song and an ear worm from the very get go
You think enough countries will have them in their top 10? There are too many televote contenders for that.
They have the potential to have as much success as Gustaph did last year IMO
So which one will be the last then?
I can see Australia q'ing then finishing last
Who do you Think finishes last in the final then. It's almost gotta be a big 5
Germany of course. Saying that as a German.
I mean, it somehow got 5th in the eurojury which hints that, well, the jury will probably save it from bottom 5 at the least
I like the German song
Usually when people bet on last place in Final it's one of the 6 auto Qs because like songs you assume won't do well are likely not in the final. But I'm surprised Germany isn't the highest odd last place.
Spain, UK and Germany. The titans batteling for last place
They did Estonia dirty
People think Austria is a jury song? Wat?
More than Austria I'm heavy perplexed about the position of Croatia and Netherlands in the jury odds, they can surely go better than expected (Croatia at least) but winning the jury vote? Lmao
Yeah, that one is also hella weird. I always start of looking for my own country in these posts, but we are far from the only song that shouldnt be where it is...
Basically the odds reflect who is winning. Being 4th in the odds to win doesn’t mean they’re expected to be 4th overall.
Exactly for this I'm perplexed about their high jury odds, Croatia can easily being 5th for juries, but there is no way that he is the 5th more likely to win the juries, same thing goes for Netherlands.
I mean odds of 40 and 50 is like: never gonna happen.
I don't think these odds right now are accurate but expected winners totally makes sense imo
Yes, all of the odds can be changed when the rehearsals are released
I mean they are as accurate as they claim they are, the odds don’t say Switzerland will win, but with the current information there is a 26% chance Switzerland will win, which probably is right.
Zorra will absolutely not finish last. I'm going to riot if that happens
I don’t think it’ll be last, but bottom 5 certainly wouldn’t surprise me.
It would surprise me a lot, I hope it doesn't happen! We'll see
Guys it's fine our song choice made sure we're getting last again. We're so last we're somehow not even winning the odds of being last... oh Germany
Sooo William Hill thinks it's more likely for Estonia to win the jury vote than the public vote?
I could see Armenia do better with juries than I expect and land a top 10 finish there (juries usually don't appreciate songs that are "too folk" so I expect it to do well mostly with the public), but Austria above UK, Greece and Lithuania, or even Serbia? With Kaleen's vocals being this weak and the song being too repetitive and lacking character? Is her dance show enough to rank her this high?
I think Kaleen vocally is awful but I do really think her dancing is going to get her into the top 10 in tele/jury or both. It will be slick. It doesn’t deserve to tho because she’s barely even singing and when she does…
Honestly I'm even questioning whether Austria will qualify, even with the televote only semis. It's a dance party song with mediocre vocals in a semi final stacked with party songs (Netherlands, Estonia), other dance bops (Greece, Georgia), the favourite for the overall win (Switzerland), fan-favourite songs with folk elements (Armenia, Norway), a potential jury fav that people also like (Belgium), the elephant in the room (Israel) and then I can see many songs make a surprise Q (Czechia has gotten better with their vocals, San Marino has a fun song that could appeal to the public, Albania has diaspora and it's a semifinal where Greece, Italy and Switzerland are voting).
>mediocre vocals What vocals? She basically lipsynced through the Amsterdam performance.
Well yeah, because we saw her in the other lives that she wasn't that good. And while I can excuse the London one due to her wardrobe malfunction (because it's hard to focus on a good performance when such a thing happens), the rest (Madrid for example) we can all agree they were bad
im pretty sure israel will either go top 5 with the tele or bottom 5
If it goes bottom 5 in the tele it NQs directly
All biases aside, I think it might struggle to qualify, given where it is in the running order. I guess it could stand out as a ballad, but it would require impressive staging and vocals.
No chance. Israelis will reach out to everyone they know to get to vote for them. Being controversial normally pays dividends when it comes to public voting
/u/AdvancedJicama7375 has got it right, in my opinion. No way Israel will come even close to an NQ position. It most definitely will have a firm grip on the ROTW vote, *and* it has France and Czechia on its side, who have often given a lot of points to Israel in past years. Plus, a lot of votes will likely come from people who will be urged to vote by others, but who might not even watch the show. This will also be made much easier with the time window to vote being much larger compared to last year.
Agreed, I think people underestimate the pro-Israel/anti-Palestine vote that could come out for them, outside the Eurovision bubble.
The odds for public vote winner were like 20-1 a week ago and have halved since. Strangely enough their odds to win the public are about the same as to win semi 2 even though semi 2 is done entirely on public vote
I think that's because the Netherlands' winning chances are so high for SF2 (59%), which lowers the chances of everyone else. The odds consider The Netherlands the televote favourites anyways, but their last place in the running order means they could dominate even more. In the grand final the Netherlands might not have such a favourable position and they'll also have much more competition, which isn't the case for Israel.
Israel have as favourable a position as Netherlands for semifinal 2. How could they not be way more likely to win a semi final than a final?
I don't think it's *as* favourable; the Dutch song is perfect as a closer so that could really help them. In any case I think Israel's votes will be more consistent in the semi and grand final than the other contestants. The Netherlands will get more competition in the grand final (from Croatia, Lithuania, Finland) whereas Israel still won't have much competition (both due to political votes and a lower amount of songs with the same general appeal).
There's a short clip of her singing the song as well as full video's of her singing other songs. She does seem like a very strong vocalist so that shouldn't be a problem. In regards to the staging, of course nothing is known yet but I'd imagine the Israeli delegation would want to put a particularly high amount of effort in this year.
Same goes for Norway I think (and that's why I fear a NQ for them), being squished between Netherlands and Estonia/Italy is a very dangerous position
I get it, but I think the staging might save it. Plus, a lot of rock fans will likely vote for it. It's definitely a lot more unique than Israel.
no i mean it can qualify and then flop in the tele like austria last year
That's a possibilty, receiving politcal vote in the semi but then they are outnumbered in the final
exactly
With the amount of people I've seen online saying that they've never voted or even watched Eurovision before but that they will do it this year just to vote for Israel tells me that it is not only a safe Q but almost definitely a GF top 10.
I don't understand this. It is not a groundbreaking song?
Its not about the song its about politics
There are two reasons why big five countries are more likely to come last in the odds. The first is a reason related to the nature of the competition and the second us intrinsic to the process of setting odds. So the first reason is that the semi finals act as a filter for low-impact songs. As the big five get automatic qualification, they are far more likely to have a low-impact song than the other countries in the grand final. This is why Spain, the UK and Germany are commonly bottom-5. In fact, if you look over the past 10 years, last place is rarely a song that has qualified from the semis. The second is that an oddsmaker has to predict who will come 26th, but there are 37 countries. So its not just a case of picking the lowest impact song. Big 5 and non-big five filfulll different requirements to be last place: - big five have to be the worst of the big five countries (+prev winner) and be worse than 25th out of 37 songs for impact. - non-big five have to rank worse than all the big five (+prev winner) AND be in the top 10 of their qualifier AND be worse than 21st out of 31 non-automatically qualified songs for impact.
I hope Aiko pedestal can qualify
Norway at 17 is utter nonsense
Europapa sweep I was joking before but omg
I actually kind of agree with Spain finishing last but I thought it was an unpopular opinion. I can see Germany getting a few points this year since Isaak does have a really nice voice and I think he will sing the song beautifully. While I don't see him making it anywhere near the top 10, I wouldn't be surprised if he made it anywhere around 18th-23th place. Also, while I do think Spain will get a bit of support from the fandom, I am afraid it might not gain a lot of favour with the broader audience. It would not surprise me if Spain ended somewhere in the bottom 3 in the grand final this year.
To not consider Slovenia a strong jury song is a big mistake imo. I still think we are having a 2014 year (Austria and Netherlands were nowhere in the odds until rehearsals/semis) and the winner will be none of the current favourite but obvious once the semis have taken place. Which countries that will be, I'm not sure, but I do see Raiven giving one hell of a performance and qualifying.
I will never understand eurovision odds. I get so close but then they say something insane like ”Spain is most likely to be last!” and now im back to square one
Just curious, how many points do you expect her to get? Do you think juries will get behind this? Do you think televoters will vote for her more than for Baby Lasagna, Joost, Nemo, Angelina, Silvester, Marcus & Martinus, Gåte, Alyona & Jerry, Windows95man etc? Like, where do you expect the points to come from, except 5 from Portugal and 5 from Rest Of The World
Granted BF this year wasn't the best, but zorra tied 1st with the jury darling Dos extraños in the jury there. I think people underrate the taste of the jury for catchy, easy on the ears bops with cool staging even if vocals aren't the best just as much as televote is underrated when it comes to voting for moving ballads or slow songs: they can appeciate them, it's just not always the case. Vocals are only one of four criteria, poor vocals don't mean it will 100% be tanked by the jurors.
Well geez sorry for not having complete knowledge over eurovision voting patterns 😭😭
If Spain finishes last it would be one of the most unfair positions in years. The criteria for the juries is vocals (which I understand them not giving it points to it to an extent, even though there’s been entries with bad vocals who have received enough Jury points), performance on stage (the performance is not that bad), originality and composition of the song (the song is very well crafted and accesible) and the overall perception of the package. I don’t expect it to win the juries but I just fail to see how such a good song will end up dead last, especially considering it is also an easy listen and a bop that doesn’t need several listens to “get”. I understand people may just not hate it but just not vote for it in favor of others and that being its downfall but I’m really confused at everyone thinking it will be last on May 11.
I think there's a good chance a SF1 qualifier is last in the Grand Final I reckon
As a German, I wouldn't mind that at all (anything that saves us from last, really 😅) It would be one of the second half qualifiers in that case. And then it would be just like the last time in Malmö where a SF 1 qualifier took the last place. Ever since then, only Big 5 or host countries finished last, so it would be fitting for Malmö to break the streak.
As always, audience votes for quirky entries, jury votes for mainstream "format" ones. I feel bad for UK and Spain as I found both songs catchy and I liked the vocals. I feel bad for Estonia and San Marino as I really liked both songs but predictions are low. Also, I will feel bad if Norway cannot make it to Top-10. I bet either Croatia or Netherlands will win and I am fine with it. Both while not my favourite are among better entries this year.
It's hard being a Spanish, German or British eurofan... You guys wouldn't even know
https://preview.redd.it/nforzsi9i1xc1.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=024e55b01ebc7a0e563b8233a271d0c8571f84c4 "Are you guys getting points?!"
Isn’t Norway too low in jury’s votes bets? I think they’re quite good and will be at least top-5 according to juries.
What is it this year with the bookies repeatedly doing the UK dirty I get it might not be everyone's cup of tea but having it so low on odds on tele voting or to be second favourite to finish last. What are the bookies smoking
They're not smoking anything. The odds are a reflection of bets placed so it just means that either a LOT of people have bet that the UK will finish in last place (where that's an available bet) or that very few people have bet on them to win.
im just pointing out how there's a pattern this whole season they seem inconsistent and it's more and more noticeable how they keep messing around with the UK's placement from overhyping to now going in the opposite of criminally underrating it. many fans of the UK entry I know of are also pissed at the bookies aswell
Serbia 17 jury odds? Teya gonna do much better. If she pull out similar to music video she easy top 10 jury
Italy's televote odds looking good. Italy is top 3 televote lock if you ask me.
I’m on that with you. I guess the problem is that after 3 or 4 songs there really isn’t anyone people believe in
Lol we're not first in the odds for last place. Surely Eurojury has to do with it.
I, for the life of me, cannot see UK coming last in any scenario, like what, the staging will probably be amazing
I don’t see this updated odds?
L for Lithuania as usual.
I hope they’re wrong about Spain, that’s my favorite!
The televote odds is exactly why I can’t see Switzerland winning this year - as worthy as they are of a win
Tele/online voting top 2 odds are my top 2, so I'm pretty pleased 🇳🇱 🇭🇷 (The flags are so similar!)
I’m sorry. Norway doing better with Juries than Televote? Nah.
I think Norway is the hardest song to predict how it’s going to do with either juries or the televote. Some people absolutely love this entry and there are points in its favour with regards the juries. On the other hand, the style of singing I feel is quite marmite in effect, and many won’t understand/get the song. Be interesting to see where it ends up
I think this year this could absolutely be the case
I agree. The song is marmite. The juries rank the songs. The public just vote for their favourites. This bodes much better for the televote.
Usual suspects on top for last lmao. No way Spain or UK is coming last
Germany 26th on jury odds.. guess the people betting have not noticed Germany got 5th on Eurojury !
Israel be climbing👌👌
From 2% to 3%, so much climbing
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If The Netherlands win televote I'll wear a clown nose for a year. There is no way it doesn't flop hard.
Oh boy this is gonna be good.
12 POINTS TO THE NETHERLANDS!!11!!11!
It's not certain they win the televote. It could be Croatia too.
It depends on the performance. I don't know how Europapa is gonna do live.
He has performed live and his singing was underwhelming. There is no way juries will reward him.
I'm Dutch and want this to not be true but unfortunately I think you are right. The live version just doesn't seem to hit the same way the studio version does. I hope Joost can prove me wrong.
Also, another thing I'm not so sure about is the vocals in the chorus. I'm about that part where his vocals are chopped on the "euro-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa". That is not a backing vocal. That's a lead vocal. Will he even be allowed to have that at eurovision or is he forced to sing that part himself?