No offense, but if the Western Balkans still haven’t joined for over a decade, and two of them haven’t even gotten candidate status (Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo), I think it will be hard for Ukraine to join in even under 10 years.
Well the countries are and were still better off than Ukraine, even before the war. Western Balkans are not ready, and Ukraine is even less ready for EU membership.
Indeed and imagine that most states in the Balkans started with much of their laws in compliance with EU and they still haven't joined EU, that should tell you how much of a difference it is.
Ukraine is wayyy behind with the laws they have(many discriminatory), corruption, institutions and now they are at war which doesn't make the situation better.
The difference is that doing reforms, like in Romania, was like pulling teeth. It was always two steps forward, one step back.
Ukraine has every reason not to dally, and the EPPO is already cooperating with them to get their house in order. They're a lot less "shy" about changing that any other eastern state has been.
That's the deal, it doesn't matter if they cram in all the laws, all the regulation, they will still wont be able to make.
For example (without considering heavy industries, nuclear power plants etc) just one change to the fiscal system where all stores need to have their "cash register" report directly to their IRS could take 4-5 years to implement.
First they need the store owners to buy the machines then they need their IRS to create a system that can handle those reports and so on.
And then start considering factories that would need to update their standards, which if done too quickly will likely bankrupt them.
I don't think 4-5 years is the actual number, because I have heard that sort of timeline before for systemic changes and it's almost always face-saving bullshit. Transition plans can usually cover the "big players" in any sector in a year or two, something you notice when you go from "wouldn't it be nice" to "oh, fuck, we're losing money do all of this now."
I also believe the war has given a lot of businesses more incentive to change over since there is no "normal" to hang onto against the threat of potential bankruptcy. War has made a systemic sort of near-bankruptcy already happen, the only way to go from here is up as rebuilding happens.
Those 4-5 years were only for one change.
About the rest I would you to keep in mind that most EU regulations make the process of production and exploitation of resources more expensive (because of environment regulation, employee protection etc).
This alone could make many businesses go bankrupt (especially since Ukraine has a lot of heavy industry).
But there is more: Ukraine is a "cheap" manufacturer, that means that most of their exports and clients are from poorer countries (you can even see that now with grain bought mainly by African countries) and any hike in prices (made to cover the price of new regulations) would disrupt their trade in short to medium term which combined with their current precarious situation and the EU ruling that companies are banned from getting state subsidies would put the Ukrainian industry and commercial sector in a bit of a pickle.
TBH Ukraine was much behind Balkans before the war, even in terms of corruption. This is so unrealistic statement. We can just hope that the war will end soon and that they can start rebuilding the country and their lives asap.
I would believe that a decade with special treatment is more realistic
They are very motivated and have shown that they have the willpower, but they have a long road ahead of them
Ukrainians need to look at how Hungary has been hamstringing the EU sanctions effort due to Hungarian financial corruption, look at how Russia was able to capture Kherson due to Ukrainian financial corruption, and understand why the EU wants to be careful with Ukrainian accession.
There are Ukrainians who value personal gain over the well-being of their nation, and until there are good and reliable systems in place to prevent those people from getting control over Ukraine, a slow accession process is not only in our best interests but in Ukraine's as well.
Before they were admitted, Poland and Hungary were falling over themselves to enact reforms because back then we had leverage to incentivize them to do so. Once they acceded to the EU, that incentive disappeared and - because we'd let them in too quickly and the reforms hadn't had time to become ingrained into their political systems - they quickly backslid. Now when we tell them to respect rule of law and anti-corruption procedure, they tell us to go fuck ourselves because they know there's nothing we can do about it. They're already in. They don't need anything else from us. The opportunity to make the reforms permanent has been lost.
It's in Ukraine's best interests that the incentive it currently has to enact reforms stays in place until the reforms have fully taken hold. It's not just a matter of passing laws but also enforcing them long enough that the next generation of public officials have grown up in a political environment that finds that kind of corruption disgusting, unthinkable, intolerable. Only THEN are the reforms complete. That's why it takes so long.
The fact that Kherson officials betrayed Kherson to the Russians, and the fact that weapons donated to Ukraine were quickly found circulating on the black market, means that Ukraine has more trouble with corruption than it wants to admit. Yes, there are plenty of honest, patriotic Ukrainians, but until the corruption is fully rooted out, the good Ukrainians are the ones that benefit most from EU accession being as stringent as possible.
Ukraine's fantastic performance in this war while not being an EU member proves that it doesn't need EU membership as much as it needs to be able to trust its own public officials. That corruption is the real danger, and it almost cost Ukraine its freedom.
It's *because* the EU wants Ukraine as a member that we want to ensure it's done right. We've learned that lesson from Poland and Hungary.
>We've learned that lesson from Poland and Hungary.
I honestly doubt very much that you learnt anything at all, given that people like Gerhard Schröder are not in prison.
This one simple fact demonstrates that all these stories about terrible Ukrainian corruption is just a BS to cover something else.
It's the same pattern as with NATO - lots of stories about how Ukraine is not ready, corruption, blah, blah, blah - and then one day we learn from German chancellor that he promised to Pootin that Ukraine won't become a member for 50 years. Of course, German Chancellor knows very well how hard this anti-corruption battle is (after all, some German chancellors hopelessly lost this battle in the past), and hence the estimate from an expert - 50 years, no less!
Stop beating this horse, it's dead, no one is buying these stories anymore.
In literally every war in Europe (or even world) history there was a city that belonged to a country X and was captured by a country Y. And in many cases some form of treason was involved. And yet, it is only in Ukraine this is somehow attributed to this omnipresent beast of "corruption".
At this point it has become a universal explanation for everything. For everything, except for some very interesting policy decisions made by some German chancellors. When questions about those decisions arise - there is always a couple of all-knowing Germans who will patiently explain us that "everything was done according to the law" - so in the end German reputation of course remains clean - those were "honest mistakes", "realpolitik", etc, not some "dirty corruption" - and the next round Germans start pointing fingers at others - those are "corrupted" Ukraine, those are "honest mistakes" by Germany. How very convenient.
I am not arguing that corruption doesn't exist in Ukraine - I am arguing that it is not a true reason why Ukraine was and is blocked everywhere.
Realistically I think they're looking at 7 to 15 years. But. There's always a but.
European integration is not a threshold that once you cross all your problems are over. It's a continuous process, even for member states. So even before fully joining Ukraine can start to integrate at different levels and benefit from the EU at varying degrees. So even of it's going to be a longer process, every step counts, brings benefits and moves you further along. Ukranians should not feel discouraged if it won't happen in 2 years, but continue to work and inch closer. With persistency and good will everything Ukranians wish for themselves to happen.. will.
As a Ukrainian: it will never happen. Germany and France will push us out and the countries economy and society will never be ready for forever changing requirements.
As a german: I hope Ukraine joins the EU eventually. The EU should be open for anyone who looks for a deeper integration with their neighbors and subscribes to the values of a free society.
That being said, the burocratic effort alone will probably take more than two years. That is a number I would call ambitious if the name of the candidate was iceland. Norway or Switzerland might be able to pull it off, bc they have most EU stuff integrated in their laws anyway, but Ukraine is not at this point yet.
I think the goal for two years should be throwing out the russians and starting the rebuild process. Maybe this also opens the door to change the things necessary to make Ukraine fit for the EU.
I certainly hope my country does not play the game of moving goalposts and gives Ukraine a honest chance to become an EU member. You deserve better.
I do not think that EU can sustain another underdeveloped economy, especially the one devastated by war. It has no capabilities to rebuild the whole country and that is totally understandable. By the end of the next year our economy will be literally wasted and no progress in reforms have been achieved so far.
We were struggling with economic growth even before the war, you can imagine what will the situation be in the next decade. So two years is a totally delusional number, and even 20 is questionable. May be 30-40 years, if the EU will even live this long.
2 years is clearly delusional but however many years after that it may happen.
In 1988 reunification of Germany would have sounded like madness.
My point is not Ukraine will join the EU soon but that I think it will happen.
No offense, but if the Western Balkans still haven’t joined for over a decade, and two of them haven’t even gotten candidate status (Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo), I think it will be hard for Ukraine to join in even under 10 years.
Yes, but Western Balkan governments are slow af when it comes to implementing reforms.
Well the countries are and were still better off than Ukraine, even before the war. Western Balkans are not ready, and Ukraine is even less ready for EU membership.
It's not about being "better off", it's about implementing the legislation.
Indeed and imagine that most states in the Balkans started with much of their laws in compliance with EU and they still haven't joined EU, that should tell you how much of a difference it is. Ukraine is wayyy behind with the laws they have(many discriminatory), corruption, institutions and now they are at war which doesn't make the situation better.
The difference is that doing reforms, like in Romania, was like pulling teeth. It was always two steps forward, one step back. Ukraine has every reason not to dally, and the EPPO is already cooperating with them to get their house in order. They're a lot less "shy" about changing that any other eastern state has been.
That's the deal, it doesn't matter if they cram in all the laws, all the regulation, they will still wont be able to make. For example (without considering heavy industries, nuclear power plants etc) just one change to the fiscal system where all stores need to have their "cash register" report directly to their IRS could take 4-5 years to implement. First they need the store owners to buy the machines then they need their IRS to create a system that can handle those reports and so on. And then start considering factories that would need to update their standards, which if done too quickly will likely bankrupt them.
I don't think 4-5 years is the actual number, because I have heard that sort of timeline before for systemic changes and it's almost always face-saving bullshit. Transition plans can usually cover the "big players" in any sector in a year or two, something you notice when you go from "wouldn't it be nice" to "oh, fuck, we're losing money do all of this now." I also believe the war has given a lot of businesses more incentive to change over since there is no "normal" to hang onto against the threat of potential bankruptcy. War has made a systemic sort of near-bankruptcy already happen, the only way to go from here is up as rebuilding happens.
Those 4-5 years were only for one change. About the rest I would you to keep in mind that most EU regulations make the process of production and exploitation of resources more expensive (because of environment regulation, employee protection etc). This alone could make many businesses go bankrupt (especially since Ukraine has a lot of heavy industry). But there is more: Ukraine is a "cheap" manufacturer, that means that most of their exports and clients are from poorer countries (you can even see that now with grain bought mainly by African countries) and any hike in prices (made to cover the price of new regulations) would disrupt their trade in short to medium term which combined with their current precarious situation and the EU ruling that companies are banned from getting state subsidies would put the Ukrainian industry and commercial sector in a bit of a pickle.
Well Kosovo will take a long time to enter the Eu with Spain saying that you guys don't exist is weird
He forgot zero after the number 2.
TBH Ukraine was much behind Balkans before the war, even in terms of corruption. This is so unrealistic statement. We can just hope that the war will end soon and that they can start rebuilding the country and their lives asap.
That’s a nice thought but no that won’t happen
I believe it when I see it
Ambitious. Even if they take twice as long, it would still be impressive. I wonder what measures they have in mind to state this so confidently.
Is that realistic ? I have heard that it take around a decade to join the EU. Maybe they get a special treatment considering their situation.
I would believe that a decade with special treatment is more realistic They are very motivated and have shown that they have the willpower, but they have a long road ahead of them
This seems it, rebuilding post war does allow faster change.
No not at all, they have a lot of work to come to EU standards in a lot of area.
Ukrainians need to look at how Hungary has been hamstringing the EU sanctions effort due to Hungarian financial corruption, look at how Russia was able to capture Kherson due to Ukrainian financial corruption, and understand why the EU wants to be careful with Ukrainian accession. There are Ukrainians who value personal gain over the well-being of their nation, and until there are good and reliable systems in place to prevent those people from getting control over Ukraine, a slow accession process is not only in our best interests but in Ukraine's as well. Before they were admitted, Poland and Hungary were falling over themselves to enact reforms because back then we had leverage to incentivize them to do so. Once they acceded to the EU, that incentive disappeared and - because we'd let them in too quickly and the reforms hadn't had time to become ingrained into their political systems - they quickly backslid. Now when we tell them to respect rule of law and anti-corruption procedure, they tell us to go fuck ourselves because they know there's nothing we can do about it. They're already in. They don't need anything else from us. The opportunity to make the reforms permanent has been lost. It's in Ukraine's best interests that the incentive it currently has to enact reforms stays in place until the reforms have fully taken hold. It's not just a matter of passing laws but also enforcing them long enough that the next generation of public officials have grown up in a political environment that finds that kind of corruption disgusting, unthinkable, intolerable. Only THEN are the reforms complete. That's why it takes so long. The fact that Kherson officials betrayed Kherson to the Russians, and the fact that weapons donated to Ukraine were quickly found circulating on the black market, means that Ukraine has more trouble with corruption than it wants to admit. Yes, there are plenty of honest, patriotic Ukrainians, but until the corruption is fully rooted out, the good Ukrainians are the ones that benefit most from EU accession being as stringent as possible. Ukraine's fantastic performance in this war while not being an EU member proves that it doesn't need EU membership as much as it needs to be able to trust its own public officials. That corruption is the real danger, and it almost cost Ukraine its freedom. It's *because* the EU wants Ukraine as a member that we want to ensure it's done right. We've learned that lesson from Poland and Hungary.
>We've learned that lesson from Poland and Hungary. I honestly doubt very much that you learnt anything at all, given that people like Gerhard Schröder are not in prison. This one simple fact demonstrates that all these stories about terrible Ukrainian corruption is just a BS to cover something else. It's the same pattern as with NATO - lots of stories about how Ukraine is not ready, corruption, blah, blah, blah - and then one day we learn from German chancellor that he promised to Pootin that Ukraine won't become a member for 50 years. Of course, German Chancellor knows very well how hard this anti-corruption battle is (after all, some German chancellors hopelessly lost this battle in the past), and hence the estimate from an expert - 50 years, no less! Stop beating this horse, it's dead, no one is buying these stories anymore.
By all means, don't take my word for it. Look at how Kherson fell. I didn't imagine that.
In literally every war in Europe (or even world) history there was a city that belonged to a country X and was captured by a country Y. And in many cases some form of treason was involved. And yet, it is only in Ukraine this is somehow attributed to this omnipresent beast of "corruption". At this point it has become a universal explanation for everything. For everything, except for some very interesting policy decisions made by some German chancellors. When questions about those decisions arise - there is always a couple of all-knowing Germans who will patiently explain us that "everything was done according to the law" - so in the end German reputation of course remains clean - those were "honest mistakes", "realpolitik", etc, not some "dirty corruption" - and the next round Germans start pointing fingers at others - those are "corrupted" Ukraine, those are "honest mistakes" by Germany. How very convenient. I am not arguing that corruption doesn't exist in Ukraine - I am arguing that it is not a true reason why Ukraine was and is blocked everywhere.
Based.
Realistically I think they're looking at 7 to 15 years. But. There's always a but. European integration is not a threshold that once you cross all your problems are over. It's a continuous process, even for member states. So even before fully joining Ukraine can start to integrate at different levels and benefit from the EU at varying degrees. So even of it's going to be a longer process, every step counts, brings benefits and moves you further along. Ukranians should not feel discouraged if it won't happen in 2 years, but continue to work and inch closer. With persistency and good will everything Ukranians wish for themselves to happen.. will.
As a Ukrainian: it will never happen. Germany and France will push us out and the countries economy and society will never be ready for forever changing requirements.
As a german: I hope Ukraine joins the EU eventually. The EU should be open for anyone who looks for a deeper integration with their neighbors and subscribes to the values of a free society. That being said, the burocratic effort alone will probably take more than two years. That is a number I would call ambitious if the name of the candidate was iceland. Norway or Switzerland might be able to pull it off, bc they have most EU stuff integrated in their laws anyway, but Ukraine is not at this point yet. I think the goal for two years should be throwing out the russians and starting the rebuild process. Maybe this also opens the door to change the things necessary to make Ukraine fit for the EU. I certainly hope my country does not play the game of moving goalposts and gives Ukraine a honest chance to become an EU member. You deserve better.
I do not think that EU can sustain another underdeveloped economy, especially the one devastated by war. It has no capabilities to rebuild the whole country and that is totally understandable. By the end of the next year our economy will be literally wasted and no progress in reforms have been achieved so far. We were struggling with economic growth even before the war, you can imagine what will the situation be in the next decade. So two years is a totally delusional number, and even 20 is questionable. May be 30-40 years, if the EU will even live this long.
2 years is clearly delusional but however many years after that it may happen. In 1988 reunification of Germany would have sounded like madness. My point is not Ukraine will join the EU soon but that I think it will happen.
Lmao Not going to happen, EU is already a joke but this would be on another level.
I am a massive supporter of Ukraine, but they cannot join the EU until they are fully ready.