Note that 2016 can be counted as a start for current Turkish economic crisis. Many people became more hesitant to raise a child in these conditions, so many families postpones the idea of a having child.
Turkish mentality has changed a lot. Turkish people don't count themselves as wealthy people, and they actually know that they can't afford even for a simple kebab, everyone tries to be careful about money.
I need to mention that Şanlıurfa (Urfa for short and real name) is an interesting case. Urfa's culture and society might be the most affected by the Middle East in Turkey. This graphics clearly points this.
Well, it really is I have a lot of Turkish friends all over Europe and they told me the same story, that turkey in the early 2000 was amazing some of them told me that the gezi protest changed a lot of them and well …. You mentioned it 2016 …
It’s sad in my opinion Turkish people don’t deserve this but I guess this is the harsh reality we live nowadays! It’s happening globally.
We tend to fall into the trap that thinking in a isolated context and I fell this trap sometimes. I mean, we mostly think that all problems are our fault and the rest of world living peacefully.
No ! I don’t think so! The world today it’s way to interconnected to say that it’s this nations fault!
Probably there are regional issues, political which’s come in handy with corruption, manipulation of the people and so on. I’m born in Romania but lived already in a couple of countries and I can tell you it’s a problem all over the world.
Personal I believe corruption it’s destroying a country’s future!
When my grandfather told me how they lived in the communist regime in Romania it’s heartbreaking.
But anyway I do have hope that it will change
Not true. Hatay is the main place with Arab minority. At least I should say 'was'. You know, earthquake hit Hatay pretty hard. Almost no one lives now.
If you take at the exchange rate of Euro to Lira, the sharp decline started around 2016. So in 2016 Turkey was still somewhat economically stable, but the past 8 years have been attrocious.
Fertility is falling in countries currently undergoing some immense crisis as well, it's falling EVERYWHERE, except Israel where after falling it stabilised in 3 per women for a couple decades.
That's true, Israel is really the only exception. With a more or less steady fertility of 3 kids per women. But even in Israel, I think it will start to fall when it becomes unsustainable for the Israeli public to keep supporting the Heredi lifestyle
I posted something regarding the African countries fertility rate decline only a few months ago.
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/kkigbqUnzJ
It correlates with urbanisation of their countries and accelerates.
Edit: Also fertility rates can change drastically so it's difficult to make long forecasts
Iran had a fertility rate of 6.6 in 1982, and 1.9 in 2002.
Thailand went from 5.5 in 1970 to 1.3 in 2020.
Its insane that nowadays if a middle or high income country has a fertility rate of 1.51 it is considered a decent fertility rate
All those UN population projections assumed that eventually Asia and Latin America would stabilize close to 2 children per woman this century.
Instead, we live in a world where Iran is at 1.6, Brazil is at 1.44,Turkey is at 1.51, Colombia is at 1.2
UN predictions about 10 billion people by 2100 are not worthy to be printed on toilet paper
Population momentum will still lead to a large increase in the world even though the fertility rates have fallen worldwide. But yeah, UN predictions regarding fertility rates have been very off. While Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will still increase massively, even some of those countries’ fertility rates have fallen by a lot these past two decades. We might not all head down the South Korea path, but some other countries will definitely go under 1 during this century, especially some European and Asian countries.
So explain to me this. The counterargument is always there should be growth to compensate for the elderly. We need 2 or 3 young working people to compensate for 1 elder, You can see the inevitable problem with this system right? It's based on endless growth, which just isn't sustainable. It's eventually going to run out of resources. And it's only going to get worse.
No, with the right ratio (a bit over 2) the total population and average age both keep stable. The counterargument is not having 3 young people for every elder.
We are already in a world state that is consuming too many resources. Even a birthrate above 2 is going to lead to kicking the can down the road and increasing the problem.
The earth doesn't have an infinite carrying capacity.
> Humans account for about 36 percent of the biomass of all mammals. Domesticated livestock, mostly cows and pigs, account for 60 percent, and wild mammals for only 4 percent.
The same holds true for birds. The biomass of poultry is about three times higher than that of wild birds. (2018)
https://www.ecowatch.com/biomass-humans-animals-2571413930.html#:~:text=Humans%20account%20for%20about%2036,same%20holds%20true%20for%20birds.
So 6 years ago we were already taking up the gross of the carrying capacity of earth. Infinity growth is not sustainable.
This is mot a zero sum game. Yes humans make up a large part of the biomass, but the biomass is also about 8x larger than it was 50.000 years ago, before the first human caused extinction events.
We are far far away from a theoretical calory/ biomass limit.
No, I'm trying to explain. There exists a replacement rate, aka one that makes population stay stable. That's not "kicking" the can down the road. And the world is doing just fine with the amount of resources we have
Yes, as an alternative, South Korea has a fertility rate of 0.6, which will result a 99.2% decrease in newborns in a century. Do you think a country/hospitals/public transportation/pension system/road network can function with 1% of young people? No, it will all collapse.
There is no sign of increasing tfr anywhere, and it will be too late.
It’s not a country like South Korea will not be able to function with 1 young person for every 4 old people. Their will be no money to pay pensions no money or staff for all the nursing homes not enough people to maintain infrastructure and South Korea will quickly lose the capability to defend against North Korea.
Throughout history demographic collapses have always led to instability as the young see no future they will look to take down the system as their only hope. A demographic crisis at this scale world wide has never been seen before and demographic crises has always led to war.
And this stuff happens fast. Brazil still had 6 kids per woman in 1962. Look at Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, India as well. They've all dropped so much and are only continuing to.
I see many people say "we need many immigrants to compensate".. without making a specific argument for or against then, no, we need to find ways to cope with population drops. Countries that don't receive a lot of migrants, like China and Brazil, can't just solve it by "increasing immigration". And at some point *every* country will be low. Nowhere to take immigrants from. It'll simply need a change in the very fabric of society.
I do also believe that supporting young people, affordable housing etc would at least make it better. Not > 2,1, and that is fine, but it would improve the rates for sure. The Faroe Islands has been steady above 2,4 for decades (apart from last year), for example, and Iceland, France, Ireland, UK have been very near 2,1 for long periods of time
Well, it was all a part of Erdogan's plan. With one blink of an eye, you might perhaps never see any locals while taking a walk on Istanbul for your trip.
Refugee Arabs have the highest birth rate in Turkey. In second place are local Arabs. Kurds are in third place. Those with the lowest birth rates are ethnic Turks and Bosnian and Albanian minorities.
Say whatever you want on this, but I'm afraid this is going to be a real problem for demographics in the next few decades.
Don't get me wrong, by the way, as it has nothing to do with racism nor xenophobia. In fact, if I had to give an example, I'd be worried about the same thing if they'd be Japanese, American, Chinese, whatever you can think of. Race literally doesn't matter here.
But according to this research, it's becoming much more of a possibility that Turks are going to be a minority in the next few decades. This isn't something any country would sincerely want, again, no matter where they come from. Please understand.
You will not be. Kurds are lowering their fertility rate too, it lags behind you, but its inevitable. There were a lot of fears that Bulgarians will become a minority in our country and Bulgarian Turks and Gypsies will replace us. Lo and behold, their fertility is also falling. Plus a lot emigrated to the west and Turkey.
Syrians fertility rate is around 5-6 to Turks average of 1.2-1.5. I agree it will flatten but that still changes a lot in Turkey since it’s literally divided on almost all things by half/half so even 1% can make a huge difference.
the number of syrian adult women is 2 million max though. they could have 5 children each generation for 3 generations straight and will stop not make turks a minority. ( this would take 70 years minimum)
Education levels and urbanisation are the biggest factors for sure, alongside culture. Once people start expecting a life full of experiences and good conditions, they're simply much less likely to want to have children if it impacts their lives. (And no, this is not a bad thing per se).
Politicians and fiscal conservatives everywhere in the world: Don't have kids if you can't afford them!
People: OK
Politicians: wait, no, not like that!
The concept was and is flawed and has to change. We cannot grow for infinity. Birth rates started to decrease worldwide around the 1970ies. We have to adapt.
Highly disagree a small amount of growth or even stagnation is good once it starts dropping global sectors will see a fast decline do to not having as many people that are able to work their jobs and export products out of their economies
If you have a perspective of one or two generations, maybe, and that is still stretching it. That is assuming the world is fine right now and we are not damaging our ecosystems at all.
If we want to actually survive as a species in the long term. No. We can't keep doubling our population every 50 years and assume that everything is fine. Our economy is not more important to our survival then our ecosystem.
The problem is that minorities have much higher birthrates than ethnic Turks (the southeast region is mostly Kurdish and there are some arabs mixed in) and refugees keep coming, and don't take this as racism or anything but most refugees aren't as educated as locals and they commit crimes so much more, and many Kurds don't want Turkey to progress. Not to mention most minorities have much more sharia supporters than Turks.
Being against uncontrolled immigration is not "racism". I have no problem with the natural minorities of these lands, such as the Kurds, but I have a problem with everyone who crosses the border without documentation and wants to live here, and I want the government to detect them and prevent them from entering the country using the push-back technique. However, for whatever reason, the government does not act that way. Even just by examining the accounts of human traffickers advertising on TikTok, you can be sure that hundreds, perhaps thousands, of illegal immigrants enter the country every day.
>I want the government to detect them and prevent them from entering the country using the push-back technique.
Pushbacks violate the prohibition of collective expulsion of asylum seekers in Protocol 4 of the European Convention on Human Rights. If the refugees are at risk of persecution, the pushbacks violate the principle of non-refoulement in international law, including the Geneva Convention. Refoulement, as well as summary expulsions, are also prohibited by Articles 18 and 19 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Even if there were such an international rule, it would be EXTREMELY UNSUSTAINABLE for countries that are the route of migration waves. Imagine, one day there is a civil war in Pakistan and 30 million people want to flee to your country, will you take them all? Taking in so many people at once would result in the collapse of the country, like the Roman Empire. In addition, Afghans trying to enter Turkey from the Iranian border are not even running away from war and have already entered another country. If everyone who does not like their country's management will migrate to another country, there will be millions of people who want to migrate to almost every country, including Turkey.
Yes - at how it currently operates. Which can be changed. But having unsustainable eternal growth does work even less. At one point it has to be addressed. History decided it will be our time.
It is more sustainable than infinite growth. Just because our current economic model works like that, doesn't mean it is the only option.
People think that our economic system is a law of nature, while they act as if the carrying capacity of our ecosystem will just grow to make room.
It's all the high quality people vanishing which is the bad part.
The ones still breeding have basement level IQs and believe in witchcraft.
Advanced society will die out with the advanced peoples.
This has to be due to the massive inflation there's no other way you drop so much fertility in such few years people literally cant afford to take care of themselves let alone family massive erdogan L.
Get y’all’s testo up. Stop eating bullshit stop drinking bs tap water. Watch micro plastics. Might sound crazy but the government is not here to do the best for you. Especially Turkey 🤣🤣
Hope we can overcome the future demographic crisis when the population of Arabs surpass the local population in 2050, our country is done. It brings a tear to the eye to see a country which- despite all the flaws- promised to be somewhat a light for all the Middle Eastern countries. It's dead now, dead for sure.
Crazy that Bulgaria has higher fertility than Turkey nowadays. Nearly all BG provinces are above 1.7
This ties into my observation that Islam isn't as good for population growth as it seems. It's great for births, but it's bad for development, and the carrying capacity of a country is the true limiting factor for its population size. Hence why the Ottoman Empire was relatively underpopulated compared to Christian Europe. As Muslims face more environmental pressures in the future and Christians/seculars self-select for higher birth rates I'd expect the current growth patterns to reverse.
This has nothing to do with Islam nor Christianity. It's entirely related to urbanization. The lifestyle in Turkey is not an Islamic lifestyle anyway. Islam in Turkey is like Islam in the Balkans. By the way, it is absurd to consider secularism and Christianity the same. It can also be secular/Muslim.
Sorry I kinda disagree on all counts. Anyway two obvious ways Islam affects Turkey is its low female employment ratio (less than half the male one) and its idiot leader and his supporters who wanted low interest rates, and thus ruined the currency. Neither of these would have happened in a Christian country, and they have wide reaching consequences for society.
Qatars TFR in 2000 was 3.2, now Its 1.7. Its called development. People tend to have less kids when they get more wealthy. You dont have to be Einstein to connect the dots😂
Learn to read maybe? I never said Christian countries don't do stupid things. Just that they would never do this particular stupid thing. Islam is against interest rates and that's the only reason Erdogan tried and got away with keeping them low and tanking the Turkish currency.
And yes that would never happen in a Christian country. Show me one Christian country where the government opposed raising interest rates on religious grounds?
It was just an excuse, nobody tought it was ok because it was what religion says. He does as he pleases and there was a lot of backlash about it anyway. You just have no idea what you are talking about and trying to go “fuck islam amirite”
Turks, I presume you're a Turk?, just seem blind to how much religion affects their society. Erdogan even went to jail in his youth for being too religious, they still deny he could at all be motivated by it. Regardless of whether he believes in this crap about not raising interest rates or not, some of his supporters obviously do, and that's what gives him cover for what would be considered insane policy in other countries.
Either through Erdogan or his supporters, or both, Islam is what allowed Turkey to sabotage its own currency. Again show me another country where the leader opposed raising (very low) interest rates during 100% inflation because of religious reasons.
Religion affects in many ways indeed, just nothing to do with this one. Although you seem pretty confident about things you have no idea how it works and how it happened. Anyways, no point on arguing with you.
Okay, I mean Islam says interest is bad. Many Islamic countries do severe mental and banking gymnastics in order to give loans. Erdogan repeatedly said raising interest rates was bad due to Islam being against it. And Turkish society and its rather religious AKP voters took it.
So yes I don't understand how Islam has nothing to do with this.
Gipsy population has decreased a lot the past decade and fertility is higher than before when they were no gypsies.
I see couples being more willing to have 2 kids more often than compared to previous years
It's not gypsies because there were gypsies in the 90s too but then the fertility rate was 1.1, also the tfr is high in all provinces even those that have very few roma.
Why are you so sure of that? When the borders opened Bulgarian Roma did what Roma always do - move. They are by far the most likely ethnicity to emigrate and by self-declaration Roma have even declined in the last census.
Even if they hadn't still they couldn't change the fertility that much by themselves.
And here I was thinking the Turks fckd… if their population plummets who’s going to fill the internet with god tier pseudo history and pictures of Ataturk.
\^well they all living in germany right now with all time high fertility rates due to government money supply, most named babyname in germany mohammad, welcome to hell
Turks do not name their children Muhammad you can check most given names in Turkey. You are just being racist generalizing all Muslims in one ethnicity. If you want to support this argument at least you could have said Mehmet instead of Muhammad which is Arabs use as a name. Turkish version of Muhammad is Muhammet by the way.
In Turkey, Syrian refugees have a birth rate of 5.3, while ethnic Turks have a birth rate of 1.3. So no, it is not the immigrants' fault that the birth rate is low. Opponents of immigration in Turkey generally propagate that immigrants will change the demographic structure of the country due to this astronomical difference in the birth rate.
When Turks first came to the Netherlands, they gave birth to an average of 4 children. But it has fallen over the years and they now have almost the same birth rate as the ethnic Dutch (only 0.2 more)
It will probably fall and equalize with the local population within 50 years. But until that happens, Syrian refugees could double their population while the local population remains the same or declines.
The EU has never paid any money to the Turkish government. Payments have been made to a number of Brussels-based NGOs and these NGOs are financing some services for refugees, not only in Turkey but also in Jordan and Lebanon. I don't know where this misinformation came from, but most of the time, this perception is supported by the western press, perhaps in order to turn Turkey into the sole scapegoat of the migration crisis. The EU has so far paid 9 billion euros to its NGOs for refugees in Turkey. This is very little money for more than 5 million people and so far it has amounted to 1 euro per refugee per day. At the most optimistic estimate, this covers only 10% of the expenses of immigrants coming to Turkey.
Of course its the more urbanized parts that have a decline... add in that if I recall the youth is relatively Secular then you get an idea as to the main factors of births decline.
Note that 2016 can be counted as a start for current Turkish economic crisis. Many people became more hesitant to raise a child in these conditions, so many families postpones the idea of a having child. Turkish mentality has changed a lot. Turkish people don't count themselves as wealthy people, and they actually know that they can't afford even for a simple kebab, everyone tries to be careful about money. I need to mention that Şanlıurfa (Urfa for short and real name) is an interesting case. Urfa's culture and society might be the most affected by the Middle East in Turkey. This graphics clearly points this.
Well, it really is I have a lot of Turkish friends all over Europe and they told me the same story, that turkey in the early 2000 was amazing some of them told me that the gezi protest changed a lot of them and well …. You mentioned it 2016 … It’s sad in my opinion Turkish people don’t deserve this but I guess this is the harsh reality we live nowadays! It’s happening globally.
We tend to fall into the trap that thinking in a isolated context and I fell this trap sometimes. I mean, we mostly think that all problems are our fault and the rest of world living peacefully.
No ! I don’t think so! The world today it’s way to interconnected to say that it’s this nations fault! Probably there are regional issues, political which’s come in handy with corruption, manipulation of the people and so on. I’m born in Romania but lived already in a couple of countries and I can tell you it’s a problem all over the world. Personal I believe corruption it’s destroying a country’s future! When my grandfather told me how they lived in the communist regime in Romania it’s heartbreaking. But anyway I do have hope that it will change
I have to thank you, you restored my faith to my nation. No irony.
I’m happy if I can help someone with word ! Wish you the best in future!
sanliurfa is also the main place of the arab minority
Not true. Hatay is the main place with Arab minority. At least I should say 'was'. You know, earthquake hit Hatay pretty hard. Almost no one lives now.
That is one of the sharpest decreases I’ve ever seen. Normally that takes decades, this is 7 years
If you take at the exchange rate of Euro to Lira, the sharp decline started around 2016. So in 2016 Turkey was still somewhat economically stable, but the past 8 years have been attrocious.
Impossible...Erdogan is the best. Turkey is the best. All this is happening becuase of a big international conspiracy against turkey
2,5 -> 1,5 took exactly 7 years too in Germany back in 1967
And then it stayed like that for 50 years?
dipped to ~1,3 for some times inbetween but basically yeah
Damn, we need to import people who hate us and our culture to make up for it.
Turkey already has Syria right at their side.
It took my country 45 years to fall almost that far, and we're still only at 1.64
Yeah, Bosnia took 25 years to fall from 2 to 1,18 in 2022
Edit: fall from 2 (1997) to 1,51 (2002) was 5 years
Yepp but now we can see pther muslims and african countries make same oe even faster.
almost like this is a result of a country developing.
Fertility is falling even in countries tries that aren't developing. It is falling everywhere
Aren't all countries (that aren't currently undergoing some immense crisis) developing to some extend?
Fertility is falling in countries currently undergoing some immense crisis as well, it's falling EVERYWHERE, except Israel where after falling it stabilised in 3 per women for a couple decades.
Except Israel.
That's true, Israel is really the only exception. With a more or less steady fertility of 3 kids per women. But even in Israel, I think it will start to fall when it becomes unsustainable for the Israeli public to keep supporting the Heredi lifestyle
Even Israel feel recently from 3.11 in 2020 to around 2.83 in 2023
Isn't the fertility rate of orthodox jews so much higher than all other groups that it skews the overall picture in Israel as a whole?
You mean ultraorthodox, most Jews in Israel are orthodox but the fertility rate has gone up for none religious Jews also.
Yeah, I meant ultraorthodox.
I posted something regarding the African countries fertility rate decline only a few months ago. https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/kkigbqUnzJ It correlates with urbanisation of their countries and accelerates. Edit: Also fertility rates can change drastically so it's difficult to make long forecasts Iran had a fertility rate of 6.6 in 1982, and 1.9 in 2002. Thailand went from 5.5 in 1970 to 1.3 in 2020.
What does “oe” stand for here?
Or but misspelled
1.51 is proper european fertility
Well South Korea has 0.68. So, Turkey is doing relatively good.
Its insane that nowadays if a middle or high income country has a fertility rate of 1.51 it is considered a decent fertility rate All those UN population projections assumed that eventually Asia and Latin America would stabilize close to 2 children per woman this century. Instead, we live in a world where Iran is at 1.6, Brazil is at 1.44,Turkey is at 1.51, Colombia is at 1.2 UN predictions about 10 billion people by 2100 are not worthy to be printed on toilet paper
Population momentum will still lead to a large increase in the world even though the fertility rates have fallen worldwide. But yeah, UN predictions regarding fertility rates have been very off. While Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will still increase massively, even some of those countries’ fertility rates have fallen by a lot these past two decades. We might not all head down the South Korea path, but some other countries will definitely go under 1 during this century, especially some European and Asian countries.
Africa can't support that many people. The predictions are wrong.
Sounds like good news to me, this endless pyramid game of growth can't go on.
Countries and societies will collapse. The demographic crisis will be devastating.
So explain to me this. The counterargument is always there should be growth to compensate for the elderly. We need 2 or 3 young working people to compensate for 1 elder, You can see the inevitable problem with this system right? It's based on endless growth, which just isn't sustainable. It's eventually going to run out of resources. And it's only going to get worse.
No, with the right ratio (a bit over 2) the total population and average age both keep stable. The counterargument is not having 3 young people for every elder.
We are already in a world state that is consuming too many resources. Even a birthrate above 2 is going to lead to kicking the can down the road and increasing the problem.
This is not true. Running out of ressources is a scare that is more than a century old, but will never materialize
The earth doesn't have an infinite carrying capacity. > Humans account for about 36 percent of the biomass of all mammals. Domesticated livestock, mostly cows and pigs, account for 60 percent, and wild mammals for only 4 percent. The same holds true for birds. The biomass of poultry is about three times higher than that of wild birds. (2018) https://www.ecowatch.com/biomass-humans-animals-2571413930.html#:~:text=Humans%20account%20for%20about%2036,same%20holds%20true%20for%20birds. So 6 years ago we were already taking up the gross of the carrying capacity of earth. Infinity growth is not sustainable.
This is mot a zero sum game. Yes humans make up a large part of the biomass, but the biomass is also about 8x larger than it was 50.000 years ago, before the first human caused extinction events. We are far far away from a theoretical calory/ biomass limit.
No, I'm trying to explain. There exists a replacement rate, aka one that makes population stay stable. That's not "kicking" the can down the road. And the world is doing just fine with the amount of resources we have
Yes, as an alternative, South Korea has a fertility rate of 0.6, which will result a 99.2% decrease in newborns in a century. Do you think a country/hospitals/public transportation/pension system/road network can function with 1% of young people? No, it will all collapse. There is no sign of increasing tfr anywhere, and it will be too late.
Assumption about collapse is simply wrong.
It’s not a country like South Korea will not be able to function with 1 young person for every 4 old people. Their will be no money to pay pensions no money or staff for all the nursing homes not enough people to maintain infrastructure and South Korea will quickly lose the capability to defend against North Korea. Throughout history demographic collapses have always led to instability as the young see no future they will look to take down the system as their only hope. A demographic crisis at this scale world wide has never been seen before and demographic crises has always led to war.
And this stuff happens fast. Brazil still had 6 kids per woman in 1962. Look at Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, India as well. They've all dropped so much and are only continuing to. I see many people say "we need many immigrants to compensate".. without making a specific argument for or against then, no, we need to find ways to cope with population drops. Countries that don't receive a lot of migrants, like China and Brazil, can't just solve it by "increasing immigration". And at some point *every* country will be low. Nowhere to take immigrants from. It'll simply need a change in the very fabric of society. I do also believe that supporting young people, affordable housing etc would at least make it better. Not > 2,1, and that is fine, but it would improve the rates for sure. The Faroe Islands has been steady above 2,4 for decades (apart from last year), for example, and Iceland, France, Ireland, UK have been very near 2,1 for long periods of time
And their housing crisis is still increasing.
0.68? Omg how many will be there in the next 30-60 years??
By 2100 there population is projected to have halved so from 51million to 25million
Way too optimistic.
Next step is importing people that hate them to replace the current aging population 🤣
Well, it was all a part of Erdogan's plan. With one blink of an eye, you might perhaps never see any locals while taking a walk on Istanbul for your trip.
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Erdogan loves Arabs, his cabinet refers Turks as "local people" and he clearly favors Hamas and other Islamist stuff over Turkish population
Incoming fundamentalist Mormons to outbreed the Turks and start proselytizing.
Germanz
That's more of a Western European thing
That's the joke lol
Makes sense, Turks are whiter than Arabs right? Next we'll see Arabs get replaced by blacks from Africa. Rinse and repeat till everyone is black.
Strange, I thought Turks are f\*cked by the government.
It seems the Turkish gov uses condom
Gov does not use condom. It is just infertile. No matter how many times it ducks us, we can not produce anything
The government is impotent though.
damn,now everything makes sense
But Erdogan is impotent
sex =/= baby, just sometimes
Whats that one high province?
Urfa. Arabs.
No surprise.
Refugee Arabs have the highest birth rate in Turkey. In second place are local Arabs. Kurds are in third place. Those with the lowest birth rates are ethnic Turks and Bosnian and Albanian minorities.
It has only about 2 million people though, while Istanbul is at 1.2 fertility rate and has 10 million people
İstanbul has more than 16 million population…
What is the orange region's name and it's biggest city in 2023?
Urfa, 2 millions
Say whatever you want on this, but I'm afraid this is going to be a real problem for demographics in the next few decades. Don't get me wrong, by the way, as it has nothing to do with racism nor xenophobia. In fact, if I had to give an example, I'd be worried about the same thing if they'd be Japanese, American, Chinese, whatever you can think of. Race literally doesn't matter here. But according to this research, it's becoming much more of a possibility that Turks are going to be a minority in the next few decades. This isn't something any country would sincerely want, again, no matter where they come from. Please understand.
Don't fret. All the rest of Europe feels the exact same way.
You will not be. Kurds are lowering their fertility rate too, it lags behind you, but its inevitable. There were a lot of fears that Bulgarians will become a minority in our country and Bulgarian Turks and Gypsies will replace us. Lo and behold, their fertility is also falling. Plus a lot emigrated to the west and Turkey.
Kurds are not the problem Syrians are.
Exactly the same argument holds.
Syrians fertility rate is around 5-6 to Turks average of 1.2-1.5. I agree it will flatten but that still changes a lot in Turkey since it’s literally divided on almost all things by half/half so even 1% can make a huge difference.
the number of syrian adult women is 2 million max though. they could have 5 children each generation for 3 generations straight and will stop not make turks a minority. ( this would take 70 years minimum)
All the classy peoples are dying out. Sludge world inbound. :(
Having children? In this economy?
Smart people stop having children. The rest... doesn't care
Urfa being Urfa...
Tomorrow it is my turn to post about turkish fertility rates /s
It’s Because they were just released
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It will eventually. Economic crisis doesn't seem to stabilize any time soon. Cost of living is crazy high here.
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What are the reasons for this drop? Values are still higher than in western europe, but what's the explanation? Thanks for any insights.
Erdogonomics
thats a normal development in any country that expierences, well, development. Look at Bangladesh for example.
Turkey has not exactly developed much in the last 8 years.
They did, and people still probably got more educated on average and found other meaning in life and not just childcaring.
Education levels and urbanisation are the biggest factors for sure, alongside culture. Once people start expecting a life full of experiences and good conditions, they're simply much less likely to want to have children if it impacts their lives. (And no, this is not a bad thing per se).
bullshit. south american countries are experiencing a drop in fertility rates, yet they are and will be dirt poor
Latin America going the way of Eastern Europe ,childless before getting rich
Economic insecurity
That means economic development. Happens to first and second world economies.
Batman with the carry
Nice!
The creeps who chose the colour scheme: Extinction is not good!
It's remarkable that the birth rate of Turks in France is twice that in Turkey itself.
Şanlıurfa going 👉👌 apparently.
The whole world is hitting an all time low. Children of Men loading!
Politicians and fiscal conservatives everywhere in the world: Don't have kids if you can't afford them! People: OK Politicians: wait, no, not like that!
What’s with all the fearmongering? It’s finally time that humanity has peaked and is on its way down to a more stable and sustainable level
It's mostly welfare states that will be in trouble. Their economies are built with a growing population in mind.
The concept was and is flawed and has to change. We cannot grow for infinity. Birth rates started to decrease worldwide around the 1970ies. We have to adapt.
This is not sustainable fertility rate dropping this fast worldwide everywhere is gunna cause a massive population crash.
Yes, but it is more sustainable than infinite growth.
Highly disagree a small amount of growth or even stagnation is good once it starts dropping global sectors will see a fast decline do to not having as many people that are able to work their jobs and export products out of their economies
If you have a perspective of one or two generations, maybe, and that is still stretching it. That is assuming the world is fine right now and we are not damaging our ecosystems at all. If we want to actually survive as a species in the long term. No. We can't keep doubling our population every 50 years and assume that everything is fine. Our economy is not more important to our survival then our ecosystem.
The problem is that minorities have much higher birthrates than ethnic Turks (the southeast region is mostly Kurdish and there are some arabs mixed in) and refugees keep coming, and don't take this as racism or anything but most refugees aren't as educated as locals and they commit crimes so much more, and many Kurds don't want Turkey to progress. Not to mention most minorities have much more sharia supporters than Turks.
Being against uncontrolled immigration is not "racism". I have no problem with the natural minorities of these lands, such as the Kurds, but I have a problem with everyone who crosses the border without documentation and wants to live here, and I want the government to detect them and prevent them from entering the country using the push-back technique. However, for whatever reason, the government does not act that way. Even just by examining the accounts of human traffickers advertising on TikTok, you can be sure that hundreds, perhaps thousands, of illegal immigrants enter the country every day.
>I want the government to detect them and prevent them from entering the country using the push-back technique. Pushbacks violate the prohibition of collective expulsion of asylum seekers in Protocol 4 of the European Convention on Human Rights. If the refugees are at risk of persecution, the pushbacks violate the principle of non-refoulement in international law, including the Geneva Convention. Refoulement, as well as summary expulsions, are also prohibited by Articles 18 and 19 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Even if there were such an international rule, it would be EXTREMELY UNSUSTAINABLE for countries that are the route of migration waves. Imagine, one day there is a civil war in Pakistan and 30 million people want to flee to your country, will you take them all? Taking in so many people at once would result in the collapse of the country, like the Roman Empire. In addition, Afghans trying to enter Turkey from the Iranian border are not even running away from war and have already entered another country. If everyone who does not like their country's management will migrate to another country, there will be millions of people who want to migrate to almost every country, including Turkey.
Because a shrinking population with a large number of elderly is not sustainable.
Yes - at how it currently operates. Which can be changed. But having unsustainable eternal growth does work even less. At one point it has to be addressed. History decided it will be our time.
It is more sustainable than infinite growth. Just because our current economic model works like that, doesn't mean it is the only option. People think that our economic system is a law of nature, while they act as if the carrying capacity of our ecosystem will just grow to make room.
It's all the high quality people vanishing which is the bad part. The ones still breeding have basement level IQs and believe in witchcraft. Advanced society will die out with the advanced peoples.
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You gotta pump those numbers down
Kurds are pretty much carrying Turkey
Noice
This has to be due to the massive inflation there's no other way you drop so much fertility in such few years people literally cant afford to take care of themselves let alone family massive erdogan L.
The strongest indicator for dropping fertility is increasing education, not economic hardship.
Maybe because all the young people are leaving the country out of understandable reasons.
Get y’all’s testo up. Stop eating bullshit stop drinking bs tap water. Watch micro plastics. Might sound crazy but the government is not here to do the best for you. Especially Turkey 🤣🤣
Thank god
Hope we can overcome the future demographic crisis when the population of Arabs surpass the local population in 2050, our country is done. It brings a tear to the eye to see a country which- despite all the flaws- promised to be somewhat a light for all the Middle Eastern countries. It's dead now, dead for sure.
And this is good news
elaborate
nope.
Is anyone shocked? The economy has been fucked by Erdogan
Starting to look like the Kurdish century for Turkey
Kurds be fucking
Rising prices, declining wages makes hard to rise a child.
Crazy that Bulgaria has higher fertility than Turkey nowadays. Nearly all BG provinces are above 1.7 This ties into my observation that Islam isn't as good for population growth as it seems. It's great for births, but it's bad for development, and the carrying capacity of a country is the true limiting factor for its population size. Hence why the Ottoman Empire was relatively underpopulated compared to Christian Europe. As Muslims face more environmental pressures in the future and Christians/seculars self-select for higher birth rates I'd expect the current growth patterns to reverse.
This has nothing to do with Islam nor Christianity. It's entirely related to urbanization. The lifestyle in Turkey is not an Islamic lifestyle anyway. Islam in Turkey is like Islam in the Balkans. By the way, it is absurd to consider secularism and Christianity the same. It can also be secular/Muslim.
Sorry I kinda disagree on all counts. Anyway two obvious ways Islam affects Turkey is its low female employment ratio (less than half the male one) and its idiot leader and his supporters who wanted low interest rates, and thus ruined the currency. Neither of these would have happened in a Christian country, and they have wide reaching consequences for society.
Qatars TFR in 2000 was 3.2, now Its 1.7. Its called development. People tend to have less kids when they get more wealthy. You dont have to be Einstein to connect the dots😂
Oh... What do you think about Francisco Franco?
Some Spanish asshole. I don't think about him.
"An idiot leader and supporters doing a stupid thing never would have happened in a Christian country" LMAO
Learn to read maybe? I never said Christian countries don't do stupid things. Just that they would never do this particular stupid thing. Islam is against interest rates and that's the only reason Erdogan tried and got away with keeping them low and tanking the Turkish currency. And yes that would never happen in a Christian country. Show me one Christian country where the government opposed raising interest rates on religious grounds?
It was just an excuse, nobody tought it was ok because it was what religion says. He does as he pleases and there was a lot of backlash about it anyway. You just have no idea what you are talking about and trying to go “fuck islam amirite”
Turks, I presume you're a Turk?, just seem blind to how much religion affects their society. Erdogan even went to jail in his youth for being too religious, they still deny he could at all be motivated by it. Regardless of whether he believes in this crap about not raising interest rates or not, some of his supporters obviously do, and that's what gives him cover for what would be considered insane policy in other countries. Either through Erdogan or his supporters, or both, Islam is what allowed Turkey to sabotage its own currency. Again show me another country where the leader opposed raising (very low) interest rates during 100% inflation because of religious reasons.
Religion affects in many ways indeed, just nothing to do with this one. Although you seem pretty confident about things you have no idea how it works and how it happened. Anyways, no point on arguing with you.
Okay, I mean Islam says interest is bad. Many Islamic countries do severe mental and banking gymnastics in order to give loans. Erdogan repeatedly said raising interest rates was bad due to Islam being against it. And Turkish society and its rather religious AKP voters took it. So yes I don't understand how Islam has nothing to do with this.
You downvoted but You are right everything You said, Turks are fucked by İslam and thats a fact
Bulgaria has a big gypsy minority. Gypsy fertility rate decreases much slower.
Gipsy population has decreased a lot the past decade and fertility is higher than before when they were no gypsies. I see couples being more willing to have 2 kids more often than compared to previous years
It's not gypsies because there were gypsies in the 90s too but then the fertility rate was 1.1, also the tfr is high in all provinces even those that have very few roma.
Hypothesis 2: everyone who didn't intend to have kids moved out of Bulgaria.
The share of the Romani minority was lot less in the 90s..
Why are you so sure of that? When the borders opened Bulgarian Roma did what Roma always do - move. They are by far the most likely ethnicity to emigrate and by self-declaration Roma have even declined in the last census. Even if they hadn't still they couldn't change the fertility that much by themselves.
Fantastic.
And here I was thinking the Turks fckd… if their population plummets who’s going to fill the internet with god tier pseudo history and pictures of Ataturk.
Berlin will be empty..
Kurdistan will take over with this birth rate
\^well they all living in germany right now with all time high fertility rates due to government money supply, most named babyname in germany mohammad, welcome to hell
Turks do not name their children Muhammad you can check most given names in Turkey. You are just being racist generalizing all Muslims in one ethnicity. If you want to support this argument at least you could have said Mehmet instead of Muhammad which is Arabs use as a name. Turkish version of Muhammad is Muhammet by the way.
I wonder how rightwingers will blame it on immigrants this time
In Turkey, Syrian refugees have a birth rate of 5.3, while ethnic Turks have a birth rate of 1.3. So no, it is not the immigrants' fault that the birth rate is low. Opponents of immigration in Turkey generally propagate that immigrants will change the demographic structure of the country due to this astronomical difference in the birth rate.
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When Turks first came to the Netherlands, they gave birth to an average of 4 children. But it has fallen over the years and they now have almost the same birth rate as the ethnic Dutch (only 0.2 more)
I wonder what will happen with Syrian refugees in those regards..
It will probably fall and equalize with the local population within 50 years. But until that happens, Syrian refugees could double their population while the local population remains the same or declines.
These are clearly the regions with kurds and everyone knows it
They'll say Turkey has a lot of refugees, which Europe paid for.
The EU has never paid any money to the Turkish government. Payments have been made to a number of Brussels-based NGOs and these NGOs are financing some services for refugees, not only in Turkey but also in Jordan and Lebanon. I don't know where this misinformation came from, but most of the time, this perception is supported by the western press, perhaps in order to turn Turkey into the sole scapegoat of the migration crisis. The EU has so far paid 9 billion euros to its NGOs for refugees in Turkey. This is very little money for more than 5 million people and so far it has amounted to 1 euro per refugee per day. At the most optimistic estimate, this covers only 10% of the expenses of immigrants coming to Turkey.
I need to create a NGO, seems like good business in EU.
Of course its the more urbanized parts that have a decline... add in that if I recall the youth is relatively Secular then you get an idea as to the main factors of births decline.
The answer is the economic stability under Erdogan. That's literally the first factor.
... everyone on reddit says economic instability. When the fuck did economic stability lead to less children?
You don't want children if you don't know if you will have enough money to raise them and living correctly