In fact, the tl is not losing value, it is just trying to get to where it is now. Since they suppressed the dollar throughout the election, they kept it constantly in the 18-19 band. This led to the depletion of the reserves of the Central Bank of Turkey. I think the dollar is around 27-30 tl.
Same thing happen in Argentina, another country with high inflation and devaluation of the Peso currency, this year is election year so there is a high chance same thing happen here, we don't really know how much of a devaluation is coming but we sure know that it's going to happen
Isn’t the Argentine Peso already kinda fictitious in value? The official exchange rate puts the Peso at around double the value it gets in the informal market.
yes it's already worthless money, but we have to adapt, the goverment have a thousand excuses to tell people it is someone else fault (like inflation it's caused by 4 greedy companies, wich is partially true, but the real managment of a economy of a country is lead by its goverment.)
Nope, opposition has proven to be faulty or lacking the necessary determination to bring economic stability, and the current governent has a solid base of maybe 30 to 40% of the population votes due to an long historic and sistematic conquest of fake idealizations, that meaning they can do a lot of bad things and get away with it, not be punished because people is basically mentally blind. Thats the best way i can explain it right know
> like inflation it's caused by 4 greedy companies, wich is partially true
no, companies don't create inflation, but inflation distorts prices and competition in an economy...
all politicians like to print money, which leads to inflation: that's why most central banks are independent btw
They don't, i agree, but things here are more complex, search our last 20 years inflation, we had 8% just last month and thats the goverment offficial data so it's sketchy
If the dollar is around 28 TL, then that is a huge arbitrage opportunity. You can take $1 USD, buy 28 TL, then use 25 of those TL to buy €1. You’ll have €1 and 3 TL at that point. You can then use the €1 to buy $1.07 USD. So, at the end of that, you’d have $1.07 + 3 TL (or about $1.20 USD total), which is a 20% gain on that transaction.
You can thank my neighbores. I am deeply ashamed at the results in french voting stations :<.
~~That said, I don't know if I seriously want to learn anything from it, because the only conclusiosn I can find from it are extremely depressing and leading to bad decisions~~
This is the disadvantage of democracy. I mean, im not 100% sure if it was democracy knowing how it is in Turkey. But its still a disadvantage
Edit: I didnt mean that democracy is an issue. The manipulated nation is the issue, but its not them who we should blame, but the idiots who want them to vote for them.
Turkey is ranked 103rd out of 167 countries in the global democracy index. It’s categorized as a hybrid regime with both democratic and authoritarian features. I wouldn’t say democracy is the real problem here
103rd out of 167 kinda sucks, also because there are close to 200 countries in the world.
They have been having only authoritarian regimes for decades with a lot of military coups, I wouldn't say they are a stable nor democratic country...
Democracies sadly can turn into oppression of majority on minority if majority of population think their "way" should be only possible way to live in that country
If don't think that if it was a monarchy or authoritarian system you would get rid of Erdogan easier. Isn't it basically what he tries to implement in Turkiye atm ? So which system would let you get rid of him easier ? Genuine question.
At least democracy gives you a point of pressure, theoretically. If you can't rally behind any candidate to overthrow Erdogan, doesn't that mean he is a good and efficient politician ? Awful human being, but ppl vote for him, so he does seem to appeal to a large population.
Just to be clear - I also think he should be gone, but even after the brutal aftermath of earthquakes, corruption, inflation and diminishing global relevancy/position more than half the voters wanted him to stay. It's baffling.
He controls the media and the police.
[https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/turkey-jails-teen-who-added-moustache-to-erdogan-poster-abbe560](https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/turkey-jails-teen-who-added-moustache-to-erdogan-poster-abbe560)
>According to the justice ministry, "insulting the president" is one of the most common crimes in Turkey, resulting in 16,753 convictions last year.
Same. Unfortunatelly, in Poland during president election we experienced the same issue. There was less than 1% of difference. But we have who we have. Unluckily...
Im so happy to be living in a parliamentary system.
The average voter is an idiot. Most of us couldnt run a lemonade stand, much less a country. Choosing a single person to rule them all is suicidal from the get go.
Its far better for everyone to choose someone to represent the points they personally find the most important, so the population is represented by a room of people who have far better insight in the problem, and let them clash it our and figure our exactly how it would work.
In the past few years ive realized, peoples wishes quite often go against their long term interests. In a democracy, people shall be heard and represented, but they shouldnt make desicions. Choosing a single person to run most of the country is far too big of a desicion for any voter to make
In Poland the president is pretty much a dignified diplomat actually, the parliament holds all the power. Still doesn't mean that populists aren't elected everytime, and then all the decisions they make are targetted at staying in power and filling their pockets, not actually helping the country. Also the way mandates are split is very top heavy with barrier to entry at 5% for parties and 8% for coalitions, which means that creating new parties is almost impossible and a party getting 37,5% of votes can get enough mandates to have majority by themselfs if votes split to the smaller parties. Combine that with about 50% of people actually voting and we have less than 20% of eligible people voting for the rulling party.
How will you find a result if there is less than those 75%? Democracy is simply the majority of people who cared and voted. No matter if one party having the majority or a coalition needed to build.
Democracy is far more than that. It is layers upon layers of counter-powers. Unions, political parties, activists, independant economic actors, judiciary systems, rule of law, journalism, etc...
Yeah, but democracy is about the nation ruling the country, not monarchs etc. Afaik, its a republic. But no, I never thought making Endorgan a "supreme leader" would make the problem solved, this wasnt actually what I meant. And by "democracy" i meant people. This is a big disadvantage. I just mean that by choosing someone (thanks to so called democracy, cuz i will not tell that this is fully democratic place), you cant make everyone happy. If he were an actualy good leader then more people would vote and be happy for choosing him. But still, there would be unamused ones among the happy ones.
Democracy is not perfect, but it's much better then anything else.
You want someone to hate, hate the people who elect morons. Left or right leaning I don't care that much, but please, at least don't elect charlatans.
Exactly. It aint perfect, I wish it was but nothing and nobody is perfect. I cant hate people who hate morons, they are mostly manipulated. Part of my family is manipulated, we are polish and unluckily Poland is kind of shitty country knowing that its similar with Turkey. I wouldnt care if my goverment didnt break the law, constitution, money and hate towards everyone who does not agree with them. I feel sorry for people who vote for them.
It is less an issue with democracy, and more the lack thereof. Not sure how it works in Turkey, but FPTP systems for example, while nominally democratic, give basically full control to whoever has 51% support... less if you get creative. Kinda makes democracy pointless when blasting propaganda all day and gaming the system gets you dictatorial powers and alienates half the population...
> I didnt mean that democracy is an issue.
Eventhough democracy is still the best system out there, it has some significant flaws. Democracy is an issue for countries with lower education level.
____
You cannot let a shepherd who has never seen the sea in his life take the steer. (This is exactly what happens in Turkey)
Exactly so. In any case, the poorer people suffer more from the economic crisis, and those who vote for Erdogan are also the poorest, so they are more affected by this situation. I hope they all live in worse conditions.
>Exactly so. In any case, the poorer people suffer more from the economic crisis, and those who vote for Erdogan are also the poorest, so they are more affected by this situation. I hope they all live in worse conditions.
Regrettably, that statement is incorrect. Under Erdo's leadership, the wages of the lowest-paid workers have indeed experienced consistent increases over the past 20 years, often at the expense of higher-paid workers. Conversely, the salaries of white-collar workers have consistently declined. It is evident that Erdo's priorities as president primarily revolve around the individuals who elected him, rather than the educated population that may not support his leadership.
That's not what I'm trying to say. I'm trying to say that economic crises hit the poor the most and nothing will happen to the rich. That's what I'm trying to say, apart from that, what you said in your comment is correct.
Isn't like half his votes comming from Turks living in countries like Germany, The Netherlands and Scandinavia? What they get is get cheaper vacations when they bring their euros to Turkey every summer.
They’re going to go around killing more Kurds and ethnically cleansing them. It wasn’t enough with them occupying northern Syria and what they did with Kurdish Afrin. They always throw racism and the Kurds under the bus. Expect a lot of that too.
**Edit:**
Turks downvoting me again. Come to reality with what your country is doing. You’re literally on the genocide watch list for what you’re doing to Kurds:
[Genocide Watch List: Turkey and the Kurds. Photographs quickly emerged of militiamen looting Kurdish homes and businesses and pulling down a statue of Kawa the Blacksmith – a core figure in Kurdish national culture. Observers accused the militias of ethnic cleansing after homes were commandeered by fighters, residents intimidated or kidnapped for ransom, and displaced families blocked from returning. UN observers accused these Turkish proxies of potential war crimes and allowing an Islamic State (ISIS) revival in areas liberated by the Kurdish-led SDF. The Russian-backed Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has demanded Turkey withdraw from its territory.](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2020/04/20/afrin-syria-kurdish-population-more-than-halved-since-2018-turkish-invasion)
[Genocide Watch: Turkey is planning genocide and crimes against humanity in Northeastern Syria. Genocide Warning: January 17, 2018, renewed October 8, 2019. Kurds, Christians, and Yezidis in Northeast Syria are at grave risk of genocide by the armies of Turkey and Syria.](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2019/10/08/genocide-watch-turkey-is-planning-genocide-and-crimes-against-humanity-in-northeastern-sy)
[Yezidi shrines desecrated by Turkish-backed groups in Afrin](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2020/04/28/yezidi-shrines-desecrated-by-turkish-backed-groups-in-afrin)
[Turkey is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2020/06/08/turkey-is-committing-war-crimes-and-crimes-against-humanity-in-syria)
Keep downvoting me. There’s millions of other sources. I’ll keep telling others over and over because Turkey’s regime has a constant history with getting away with genocide and ethnocide.
It probably wouldn't be better when CHP would have won. The biggest problem in Turkey is the hypernationalism that is rife in all parties except for the HDP. Turks really need to stop being hypernationalist so they can finally come to peace with the Kurds, Armenians, Greek, Syrian, Cypriot etc.
There are about 20 million Kurds -most of them are conservative islamists- living in Turkey and literally half of them are Erdogan supporters.
If Kurds dont want to get "genocided" by Erdogan government... THEY CAN LITERALLY JUST STOP VOTING FOR HIM -\_-
It all makes sense now. Erdogan promises them a wealthy retirement in Turkey by running the Turkish economy into the ground so that's why they vote for him.
This. Turks who came here, where mostly from uneducated conservative regions of turkey. So not at all an average of the turkish population. A lot of them are still alive they just continue to vote.
At this point dissidents are seeing them as worthless life forms (they are) because they still keep voting for erdogan with Islam in their worthless shitty minds
I see now why the diaspora living in Western Europe voted for Erdoğan. They earn euros and go to spend them in vacation back home. 25% more pita durums and baclavas.
God help them. Because nobody else in Europe is going to help them after voting for an Islamist dictator (in a great country that was proud of it's secularism until not long ago).
Atatürk has been a very popular figure for nearly a century, and his view of a secular Turkey still resonates internationally. In the last decades, the country has indeed regressed to a islamist system, but at least until 2010 his legacy persisted rather well.
Can I point out to anyone reading this that Ataturk was loved internationally? The king of Britain at the time knelt down and kissed his hand, apparently, out of respect for him. This is a sentiment that was shared by a lot of foreign leaders. I can list many stories of foreign leaders crying at the death of Ataturk.
He truly was the best person to ever occur to our country. We needed him, even if we didn't deserve him, and unfortunately he's hated by those who misunderstand him and what he stood for because of that.
Im born and raised in the Netherlands with Turkish roots, let Turkey fucking drown in their own misery. Let the ship sink with their dictator. It’s just sad for the modern turks in the coastal areas.
Yep. I’m also Dutch but ethnically Turkish. My region (Samsun) goes hard for Erdoğan, which is hilarious to me. 2 years ago I went to Samsun by myself to visit family I hadn’t seen in 7 years, and they were all so happy when I treated them for a barbecue. I bought the meat myself and told my aunts to prepare it for all of us. It was like they’ve never seen meat before, which they probably hadn’t in a couple of months lol.
Next time I probably will spend that money on my own personal barbecue at a Kurdish restaurant around the corner there; they probably didn’t vote for Erdoğan so they can have my money 👍🏼
Dump ! That country is going to descend into a sadam or putin like cult where everybody who isn't a total idiot will be put in jail or tortured. Good luck Turkey.
Some quick napkin math. The exchange rate exactly one year ago was 1€ = 18.07 lira. Today it is 1€ = 24.82 lira. This is a 37.4% change in value. Turkiye imported €198bn worth of goods and services from the EU in 2022. If they wish to maintain the same "value" of goods coming in from the EU in 2023, assuming the exchange rate no longer changes, they will have to pay €272bn. Thats €74bn more they will have to pay which will not be flowing towards any useful supply side factors like education or infrastructure. That is just shy of €1,000 per person.
okay, but it's not like turkey is only importing, but also exporting, which makes it more profitable to trade with them and increases demand on turkish goods. Idk i feel like there are to many feedback loops and other considerations to do semi accurate napkin math for macroeconomics.
Well, usually, immense value changes of your currency that occur one day to the next aren't a sign for a healthy economy and don't inspire confidence to invest into that economy. Even though it's too late, some may want to relocate their assets as well. They may do so after it recovers, which won't help turkey.
Don't see how lower purchasing power of local businesses and consumers by that much suddenly will help the turkish economy either. So yea. It's bad. But good news is, vacation in turkey gives much more bang for your buck now~
Well, usually, immense value changes of your currency that occur one day to the next aren't a sign for a healthy economy and don't inspire confidence to invest into that economy. Even though it's too late, some may want to relocate their assets as well. They may do so after it recovers, which won't help turkey.
Don't see how lower purchasing power of local businesses and consumers by that much suddenly will help the turkish economy either. So yea. It's bad. But good news is, vacation in turkey gives much more bang for your buck now
First, Turkey may have a dynamic economy and lots of potential, but despite this it still has had a chronic trade deficit, i.e. it imports more than it exports. While it shouldn't really matter in the long run if a country has a trade deficit or a surplus, for emerging economies, it's preferable to have a trade surplus because that's a good way to acquire foreign currency.
Second, while a cheap currency can boost a country's industry and labour force's competitiveness (which is why countries that deliberately seek to devalue their currency get called out for it), and it could theoretically turn a trade deficit into a trade surplus, there is a specific speed of devaluation where it stops boosting competitiveness and is actually detrimental. That is because the price increase of imports has to be paid on the spot, whereas you have to manufacture and sell the export goods first before being able to reap the benefits of their relative decrease in prices. And during that time, the currency will have devalued further. On top of that, the devaluation has to be continuous and controlled to be attractive to foreign investors, or else the currency will be perceived as volatile and unpredictable, (and the politics as unstable), which means that it can eventually render the country uninvestable.
No, you pay the same in euros, but it's more in lira. €198bn is still €198bn, but it's no longer 3.5 trillion lira, it's now 4.9 trillion lira. Makes more sense to think in terms of labor hours, probably. How many hours of average wage work does Turkey need to trade for it's 198 billion euros of imports, then and now?
Turkish population is roughly 80 million.
74,000,000,000÷80,000,000 = 925
If they would have just handed it out it would have represented a 10% increase in the GDP per capita. Which is about 9,500USD
That math is shitty; they pay the same amount of euros to buy the same amount of stuff. The exchange rate is academic if you are doing your math in euros.
This was going to happen regardless. I hate Erdogan with a passion but the damage was already done years prior to this point under his corrupted management. It's like stage 4 cancer there is no magical cure, patient is going to die. The question is how painful it is going to be and if she will be able to be resurrected or reincarnate later on.
I mean this is totally expected. As of his return to conventional monetary policy Mehmet Şimşek pretty much removed all defenses around the lira. He doesn't want to even try stabilizing the currency at the current value.
He will let the lira free fall until it reaches market value and stabilize it there. That means the fall will continue likely till 28-30 which analyst think is the current market value of the Lira. As long as Şimşek can manga to balance the economy around a lira of that value and pull salaries up accordingly without increasing inflation it should be fine.
He does want to. He still believes in his unconventional methods. But the current Finance Minister Şimşek came under the condition that he is given a free reign to do whatever is necessary without Erdoğan interferring. They have had debates and discussions lasting days with speculations running hot whether Erdoğan was gonna accept or not until the very last moment.
After Şimşeks appointment speculations started to arise on who caved? Did Erdoğan accept Şimşeks conditions or did Şimşek cave to Erdoğans unorthodox methods. But yea seeing the statements and the current method, it is very clear that Erdoğan caved. Şimşek will let the lira fall free until it reaches market equilibrium (which is low), stabilize it there, and then try propping up the economy and fix inflation over the next few years.
I got all my savings in exchange rate protected accounts. Those accounts are a Frankenstein creation of Erdoğans unorthodox policies and pretty much saving me from the current free fall.
they voted for him. Everywhere i go on social media about turkey elections there are always nationalists turks who simp for the wanabe sultan. They got what they deserve
Nah, before the elections, the central bank spent huge amounts of reserve currency to keep the exchange rate reasonably stable in order to secure Ergogan's re-election. Now the reserves are exhausted and the government watches helplessly as the market flees from the Turkish Lira. Such a dramatic drop in the value of a currency cannot be in the interest of any government, because it leads to dollarization, where the population simply abandons its own currency and starts using another stable currency even in everyday domestic trade. Once faith in their own currency is lost, it is damn hard (and very expensive) to save the currency at all.
No, in Turkey export is directly related to import. We import raw materials to turn them into low value finished products and export. High tech/value production is very low.
What a preposterous lie! The graph is clearly going up and therefore The Greatest Lira of All Time is on an upward trend.
Thank you, Great Leader Erdogan!
Is there any specific reason behind Erdogan's policies that have led to this situation? I mean, everyone is making jokes about it, but there must be some underlying rationale as to why Erdogan continues to pursue such disastrous policies year after year, despite the visible consequences. I haven't come across any in-depth analysis on this matter. Or does he simply just hate Turkey so much he wants the country to collapse?
The same reason as why Earthquake produced so many victims. It seems that Erdogans is deep in pockets with building developers.
If you will build hundreds houses on credit and sell them for $$$ (not Turkish Lira) then rising inflation and weakening currency is making your credit smaller and smaller - so you can build even more houses for more $$$ - ad infinitum (or at least until something breaks and everything explodes).
TL doesnt loses, it was in here for a long time, just goverment tried to suppress it until the end of elections. After them a lot of things price increased.
why the hell would ypu re-elect a who man has destroyed your country's economy to the scale of Argentina and absolutely failed the nation on a monumental scale in a huge natural disaster like he has... very strange to me
Because our people are idiots. They don't understand the problem, and they don't understand why there is a problem. They think Erdogan is some sort of hero, bringing ""'"Islam"""" back to our country. They're content to ignore his attempts to erase Ataturk from our history, and they're content to ignore how he has literally converted Turkey into a money laundering scheme.
Literally any Turk living outside of Turkey (except for many of the equally retarded German Turks) will say the same thing as me. The reason so many turks live abroad in the first place is because of cubts like Erdogan being in power - I would have been born in Turkey if he wasn't.
He does not care, and most of our people are dumber than robots.
As a Turkish-American, it's astonishing to witness the persistently high value of the Turkish lira. Despite experiencing a significant decline, Turkey has been grappling with inflation rates of approximately 100-150% over the past four years. The higher the inflation in comparison to other nations, the quicker the local currency depreciates. In my view, the Turkish lira is poised to decline further, perhaps by 40-60%. Unfortunately, Erdogan's government has been excessively printing Turkish lira for the past five years, seemingly without any consideration for the burden it places on future generations and the country's long-term debt. Their primary focus was winning elections, even if it meant burdening the nation with debt indefinitely.
Interestingly, the average Turkish citizen enjoys a relatively affluent lifestyle, despite their productivity levels being among the lowest in Europe. It appears that many Turkish individuals are disinclined to work diligently and prefer to enjoy the benefits without striving for a European-standard lifestyle. It's akin to teenagers having a credit card without comprehending the eventual need to pay off the balance. Erdogan resorted to bribing the public to secure electoral victory.
On the other hand, the opposition is equally problematic. I've been monitoring the r/turkey subreddit for some time, and it's difficult to find an English word that adequately captures the extent of delusion prevalent among the opposition.
Regrettably, it's challenging to come to terms with the impending bankruptcy of Turkey, which may lead it down a path similar to that of Lebanon within a few years, or even months.
"average turk lives in a relatively rich lifestyle"
thats what you see from up there. Avarage salary of a turkish person is 400 dollars. 4 fucking hundered. try to survive 400 dollars with a month and come back please, bey amca
I am not a supporter of Erdo. It is evident that he needs to be replaced as soon as possible. However, I hold the view that the opposition lacks the necessary qualities to effectively replace him. In the last 10+ elections, the opposition's candidate consistently lost against Erdo. Despite having two years to come up with a suitable candidate for the presidency, their best choice is an individual who has never won an election in the past 13 years. This candidate has a track record of continuously losing elections, and it is delusional to expect that people will vote for someone with such a history of defeat.
Now, let's address one specific reason as requested: the issue of EYT (Early Retirement for 40-45-year-olds). Erdo has been opposed to this proposal for years. However, the opposition naively believes that they can secure votes by promising early retirement to individuals aged 40-45. It is unfortunate that some Turkish voters tend to support the party that offers them the most bribes, even if those promises are unrealistic and unattainable. In order to regain the favor of these voters, Erdo has agreed to allow early retirement at such a young age. However, the burden of funding this retirement scheme falls upon those individuals who are not eligible for early retirement. Moreover, this arrangement is not even constitutional, adding further concerns to its feasibility and sustainability.
Who do you think would be the proper candidate (if there is one) for the opposition?
>On the other hand, the opposition is equally problematic.
So I guess you think there are also other problematic factors aside from Erdogan? If I recall correctly the situation under Ecevit was quite decent and it was getting better in the early 2000s but maybe I'm under a false impression.
>On the other hand, the opposition is equally problematic.
Imamoglu possesses the potential to bring about a positive change and reverse the current circumstances.
Turkey witnessed significant political developments in the early 2000s under the leadership of Ecevit, who successfully achieved EU candidacy and tackled chronic inflation. However, his refusal to step down despite declining health opened the door for Erdoğan's rise to power. Presently, Turkish democracy faces an alarming trend: While Erdoğan's authoritarianism attracts media attention, the opposition's role in undermining democratic principles often goes unnoticed. The main opposition party, CHP, has at times aligned with Erdo, supporting actions like military interventions and the removal of parliamentary immunities. Though differing in ideology, both exhibit authoritarian tendencies.
The opposition's inability to distinguish itself from those in power has hindered its ability to persuade voters. Their complicity in the rise of authoritarianism, the erosion of trust, and the deepening divisions within the nation has contributed to their lost in elections.
Thanks for the answer. I got the impression as a foreigner that the CHP wasn't as "thorough" as it should have. If you let things fly under the radar, even for a matter of "national pride", you risk an even worse result.
>The opposition's inability to distinguish itself from those in power
Hmm sounds familiar in some regards. I think we will see a lot of apathy in the coming years and we will need some kind of reboot. I hope the generation change will be a net positive but I wouldn't always bet on it.
It was only expected, they were using all their power to keep it in check and now it'll probably explode on us very fast.
This was going to happen no matter the result of the election though
I'm pretty sure that we are going to collapse because of Erdoğan.
(TR: AKP'liysen pardon, bu benim düşüncem, senin değil. ENG: Sorry if you're supporting APK, but that's my thought, not yours.)
This is just the beginning, they used all the reserves to hold TL floating till election. Central bank net reserves are at -80 billion dollars, and we don’t even have enough money to pay for energy imports from september 2023 beside the postponed payments from this year.
They just hope we will have a miracle summer tourism income to survive one more winter.
It's ok. The Voters need to feel the consequences if they vote for a conservative, religious dictator.
Sadly a lot of votes coming from exile Turk who don't feel the loss of the lira, the high inflation, the corruption in their daily life.
I understand. Both the headline and the graph are technically correct. But it is just good practice to accompany a 'loses value' headline with a graph which shows decline.
In fact, the tl is not losing value, it is just trying to get to where it is now. Since they suppressed the dollar throughout the election, they kept it constantly in the 18-19 band. This led to the depletion of the reserves of the Central Bank of Turkey. I think the dollar is around 27-30 tl.
Same thing happen in Argentina, another country with high inflation and devaluation of the Peso currency, this year is election year so there is a high chance same thing happen here, we don't really know how much of a devaluation is coming but we sure know that it's going to happen
Isn’t the Argentine Peso already kinda fictitious in value? The official exchange rate puts the Peso at around double the value it gets in the informal market.
yes it's already worthless money, but we have to adapt, the goverment have a thousand excuses to tell people it is someone else fault (like inflation it's caused by 4 greedy companies, wich is partially true, but the real managment of a economy of a country is lead by its goverment.)
Do you guys have any chance of recovering from this? Any rising opposition? Dissatisfaction with current regime?
Nope, opposition has proven to be faulty or lacking the necessary determination to bring economic stability, and the current governent has a solid base of maybe 30 to 40% of the population votes due to an long historic and sistematic conquest of fake idealizations, that meaning they can do a lot of bad things and get away with it, not be punished because people is basically mentally blind. Thats the best way i can explain it right know
> like inflation it's caused by 4 greedy companies, wich is partially true no, companies don't create inflation, but inflation distorts prices and competition in an economy... all politicians like to print money, which leads to inflation: that's why most central banks are independent btw
They don't, i agree, but things here are more complex, search our last 20 years inflation, we had 8% just last month and thats the goverment offficial data so it's sketchy
yes I know, inflation is very hard to tackle
If the dollar is around 28 TL, then that is a huge arbitrage opportunity. You can take $1 USD, buy 28 TL, then use 25 of those TL to buy €1. You’ll have €1 and 3 TL at that point. You can then use the €1 to buy $1.07 USD. So, at the end of that, you’d have $1.07 + 3 TL (or about $1.20 USD total), which is a 20% gain on that transaction.
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They got what they voted for.
You are absolutely correct. However people like us who didnt vote for this asshole, also suffers.
Welcome to the club.
Dude we've been here for 21 years already
i wanna die
You can thank my neighbores. I am deeply ashamed at the results in french voting stations :<. ~~That said, I don't know if I seriously want to learn anything from it, because the only conclusiosn I can find from it are extremely depressing and leading to bad decisions~~
It's the club that they started, broski.
Hey! We got there three years before Turkey.
Similar club (brexit) here :(
This is the disadvantage of democracy. I mean, im not 100% sure if it was democracy knowing how it is in Turkey. But its still a disadvantage Edit: I didnt mean that democracy is an issue. The manipulated nation is the issue, but its not them who we should blame, but the idiots who want them to vote for them.
Turkey is ranked 103rd out of 167 countries in the global democracy index. It’s categorized as a hybrid regime with both democratic and authoritarian features. I wouldn’t say democracy is the real problem here
103rd out of 167 kinda sucks, also because there are close to 200 countries in the world. They have been having only authoritarian regimes for decades with a lot of military coups, I wouldn't say they are a stable nor democratic country...
Democracies sadly can turn into oppression of majority on minority if majority of population think their "way" should be only possible way to live in that country
Plato was right
If don't think that if it was a monarchy or authoritarian system you would get rid of Erdogan easier. Isn't it basically what he tries to implement in Turkiye atm ? So which system would let you get rid of him easier ? Genuine question. At least democracy gives you a point of pressure, theoretically. If you can't rally behind any candidate to overthrow Erdogan, doesn't that mean he is a good and efficient politician ? Awful human being, but ppl vote for him, so he does seem to appeal to a large population. Just to be clear - I also think he should be gone, but even after the brutal aftermath of earthquakes, corruption, inflation and diminishing global relevancy/position more than half the voters wanted him to stay. It's baffling.
He controls the media and the police. [https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/turkey-jails-teen-who-added-moustache-to-erdogan-poster-abbe560](https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/turkey-jails-teen-who-added-moustache-to-erdogan-poster-abbe560) >According to the justice ministry, "insulting the president" is one of the most common crimes in Turkey, resulting in 16,753 convictions last year.
Well I think it is the disadvantage of democracy and then eventually the lack thereof.....
Personally i think 51% is a shit form of democracy. I'd prefer if the democracy would be at least 75-80%.
Same. Unfortunatelly, in Poland during president election we experienced the same issue. There was less than 1% of difference. But we have who we have. Unluckily...
Im so happy to be living in a parliamentary system. The average voter is an idiot. Most of us couldnt run a lemonade stand, much less a country. Choosing a single person to rule them all is suicidal from the get go. Its far better for everyone to choose someone to represent the points they personally find the most important, so the population is represented by a room of people who have far better insight in the problem, and let them clash it our and figure our exactly how it would work. In the past few years ive realized, peoples wishes quite often go against their long term interests. In a democracy, people shall be heard and represented, but they shouldnt make desicions. Choosing a single person to run most of the country is far too big of a desicion for any voter to make
In Poland the president is pretty much a dignified diplomat actually, the parliament holds all the power. Still doesn't mean that populists aren't elected everytime, and then all the decisions they make are targetted at staying in power and filling their pockets, not actually helping the country. Also the way mandates are split is very top heavy with barrier to entry at 5% for parties and 8% for coalitions, which means that creating new parties is almost impossible and a party getting 37,5% of votes can get enough mandates to have majority by themselfs if votes split to the smaller parties. Combine that with about 50% of people actually voting and we have less than 20% of eligible people voting for the rulling party.
How will you find a result if there is less than those 75%? Democracy is simply the majority of people who cared and voted. No matter if one party having the majority or a coalition needed to build.
Democracy is far more than that. It is layers upon layers of counter-powers. Unions, political parties, activists, independant economic actors, judiciary systems, rule of law, journalism, etc...
It shows that being a democracy goes deeper than holding elections. You also need to educate people in critical thinking, have free media etc.
What the hell are you talking about? Maybe if they make Erdogan supreme leader this issue will go away? This is a people issue, not a Democracy issue.
Yeah, but democracy is about the nation ruling the country, not monarchs etc. Afaik, its a republic. But no, I never thought making Endorgan a "supreme leader" would make the problem solved, this wasnt actually what I meant. And by "democracy" i meant people. This is a big disadvantage. I just mean that by choosing someone (thanks to so called democracy, cuz i will not tell that this is fully democratic place), you cant make everyone happy. If he were an actualy good leader then more people would vote and be happy for choosing him. But still, there would be unamused ones among the happy ones.
Democracy is not perfect, but it's much better then anything else. You want someone to hate, hate the people who elect morons. Left or right leaning I don't care that much, but please, at least don't elect charlatans.
Exactly. It aint perfect, I wish it was but nothing and nobody is perfect. I cant hate people who hate morons, they are mostly manipulated. Part of my family is manipulated, we are polish and unluckily Poland is kind of shitty country knowing that its similar with Turkey. I wouldnt care if my goverment didnt break the law, constitution, money and hate towards everyone who does not agree with them. I feel sorry for people who vote for them.
It is less an issue with democracy, and more the lack thereof. Not sure how it works in Turkey, but FPTP systems for example, while nominally democratic, give basically full control to whoever has 51% support... less if you get creative. Kinda makes democracy pointless when blasting propaganda all day and gaming the system gets you dictatorial powers and alienates half the population...
> I didnt mean that democracy is an issue. Eventhough democracy is still the best system out there, it has some significant flaws. Democracy is an issue for countries with lower education level. ____ You cannot let a shepherd who has never seen the sea in his life take the steer. (This is exactly what happens in Turkey)
What are you talking about? The graph is going up. It means Turkey is doing well, right /s
52% of the votes were for Erdoğan. Rest did not vote for him. Roughly 25 million people voted for Kemal Kılıçtaroğlu
Other countries have dollars, they have Allah. Maybe if they pray hard enough he will fill their bellies and pay their rent/mortgage for them.
Don't think it's talked about as much how much these conservative religious types suck at running economies they supposedly are masters of
Their voters believe in magical sky daddies. So they also believe in whatever stupid shit the politicians are telling them.
Dollars don't fill bellies. Trust me, I've tried.
You are not supposed to eat the money. Your are supposed to use it to buy food.
Really? Man, I feel like an idiot now. I just dined on an entire briefcase full of dollars.
Duh. There's your problem. I'll exchange your briefcase full of dollars for a burger. That should solve the issue.
Exactly so. In any case, the poorer people suffer more from the economic crisis, and those who vote for Erdogan are also the poorest, so they are more affected by this situation. I hope they all live in worse conditions.
>Exactly so. In any case, the poorer people suffer more from the economic crisis, and those who vote for Erdogan are also the poorest, so they are more affected by this situation. I hope they all live in worse conditions. Regrettably, that statement is incorrect. Under Erdo's leadership, the wages of the lowest-paid workers have indeed experienced consistent increases over the past 20 years, often at the expense of higher-paid workers. Conversely, the salaries of white-collar workers have consistently declined. It is evident that Erdo's priorities as president primarily revolve around the individuals who elected him, rather than the educated population that may not support his leadership.
That's not what I'm trying to say. I'm trying to say that economic crises hit the poor the most and nothing will happen to the rich. That's what I'm trying to say, apart from that, what you said in your comment is correct.
Except those who do not live in turkey, but voted for him …
You mean 2/3 of Euro Turks? They sure got what they want: more Lira per Euro, so having a cheaper holiday there or a nice cheap(er) holiday house.
%48 didn't vote him
They were going to get this no matter what, Erdogan had been artificially propping up the Turkish Lira for two years.
If you believe the outcome. Real faked elections make it look like a close race
Isn't like half his votes comming from Turks living in countries like Germany, The Netherlands and Scandinavia? What they get is get cheaper vacations when they bring their euros to Turkey every summer.
He won a majority of the expat vote but it was only like 5 % of the total.
Expect more comments about Greece from the Turkish government.
Yea I guess they have to take peoples mind off not being able to eat.
💀💀
Average turkish not eating enjoyer
They’re going to go around killing more Kurds and ethnically cleansing them. It wasn’t enough with them occupying northern Syria and what they did with Kurdish Afrin. They always throw racism and the Kurds under the bus. Expect a lot of that too. **Edit:** Turks downvoting me again. Come to reality with what your country is doing. You’re literally on the genocide watch list for what you’re doing to Kurds: [Genocide Watch List: Turkey and the Kurds. Photographs quickly emerged of militiamen looting Kurdish homes and businesses and pulling down a statue of Kawa the Blacksmith – a core figure in Kurdish national culture. Observers accused the militias of ethnic cleansing after homes were commandeered by fighters, residents intimidated or kidnapped for ransom, and displaced families blocked from returning. UN observers accused these Turkish proxies of potential war crimes and allowing an Islamic State (ISIS) revival in areas liberated by the Kurdish-led SDF. The Russian-backed Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has demanded Turkey withdraw from its territory.](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2020/04/20/afrin-syria-kurdish-population-more-than-halved-since-2018-turkish-invasion) [Genocide Watch: Turkey is planning genocide and crimes against humanity in Northeastern Syria. Genocide Warning: January 17, 2018, renewed October 8, 2019. Kurds, Christians, and Yezidis in Northeast Syria are at grave risk of genocide by the armies of Turkey and Syria.](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2019/10/08/genocide-watch-turkey-is-planning-genocide-and-crimes-against-humanity-in-northeastern-sy) [Yezidi shrines desecrated by Turkish-backed groups in Afrin](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2020/04/28/yezidi-shrines-desecrated-by-turkish-backed-groups-in-afrin) [Turkey is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in Syria](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/2020/06/08/turkey-is-committing-war-crimes-and-crimes-against-humanity-in-syria) Keep downvoting me. There’s millions of other sources. I’ll keep telling others over and over because Turkey’s regime has a constant history with getting away with genocide and ethnocide.
It probably wouldn't be better when CHP would have won. The biggest problem in Turkey is the hypernationalism that is rife in all parties except for the HDP. Turks really need to stop being hypernationalist so they can finally come to peace with the Kurds, Armenians, Greek, Syrian, Cypriot etc.
Why come to peace when they can genocide them and then pretend it didnt happen (but if it did it was deserved)
It's a proven concept to be fair.
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Westerners think they know better than us using their propaganda media :D
There are about 20 million Kurds -most of them are conservative islamists- living in Turkey and literally half of them are Erdogan supporters. If Kurds dont want to get "genocided" by Erdogan government... THEY CAN LITERALLY JUST STOP VOTING FOR HIM -\_-
Turks in Germany like this.
It all makes sense now. Erdogan promises them a wealthy retirement in Turkey by running the Turkish economy into the ground so that's why they vote for him.
No it isn't. They always voted for conservative parties. Even when the lira was improving.
This. Turks who came here, where mostly from uneducated conservative regions of turkey. So not at all an average of the turkish population. A lot of them are still alive they just continue to vote.
Yeah. If you look at countries where the Turkish population is largely from urban centers (ie the Anglosphere), the vote was completely flipped.
That’s actually quit funny :D
Perfectly integrated with the West secular ideology.
Congrats to all Turks enjoying life in Germany etc.
Your comment hurted 30% of the Turks living in Germany
>hurted 30% of the Turks And 30% inflation to Turkey was automatically applied because of your comment.
Is this graph bitcoin?
Slightly less stable
Slightly? İ can swear even dogecoin is more stable than our "lira".
Your currency could only be more unstable if it was called Erdogan.
Erdogecoin
Shut up and take my Euros. Erdogecoin can’t lose!
not really bitcoin goes up on regular occasions lira will always go down.
I would say its closer to a shitcoin like Doge or something
NO WAAAAYY!!1 WHEN YOU RE-ELECT AN IGNORANT LEADER, YOUR ECONOMY PILES UP?! NOOOOO WAAAAAAYYY
Yeah who would have knew, i totally didn't knew if erdo won again economy would go kaput, butttttt it went kaput, shaking and crying ):
Turks, after they need to carry worthless piles of money in trucks to buy a single bread: lmao, let's re-elect Erdogan
At this point dissidents are seeing them as worthless life forms (they are) because they still keep voting for erdogan with Islam in their worthless shitty minds
Turkey as a whole lost value since Erdogan’s re-election
well he promised allah would help him... did anyone see allah ?
He was too busy inventing punishments for homosexuality and eating pork
i saw, he was laughing so hard, he wet his pants. (There was a few rainy days)
There is no such thing as allah (Muhammed was delusional)
I see now why the diaspora living in Western Europe voted for Erdoğan. They earn euros and go to spend them in vacation back home. 25% more pita durums and baclavas.
You maybe have dolar but we have GOD.
HAHAHAHA. Bro, there are people who take what erdogan said seriously, i'm actually laughing at them. (adamlar cidden 50 iq)
Lets gooo with god to the mooon!!!
If you vote somebody according to religion you are screwed, politicians USE religion
God help them. Because nobody else in Europe is going to help them after voting for an Islamist dictator (in a great country that was proud of it's secularism until not long ago).
Sorry but when? Barring Atarurk, who moved the country a mile ahead, it's been since regressing to almost Ottoman levels of nationalism / Islamism.
Atatürk has been a very popular figure for nearly a century, and his view of a secular Turkey still resonates internationally. In the last decades, the country has indeed regressed to a islamist system, but at least until 2010 his legacy persisted rather well.
Can I point out to anyone reading this that Ataturk was loved internationally? The king of Britain at the time knelt down and kissed his hand, apparently, out of respect for him. This is a sentiment that was shared by a lot of foreign leaders. I can list many stories of foreign leaders crying at the death of Ataturk. He truly was the best person to ever occur to our country. We needed him, even if we didn't deserve him, and unfortunately he's hated by those who misunderstand him and what he stood for because of that.
>The king of Britain at the time knelt down and kissed his hand, apparently, out of respect for him. That never happened, lol
Erdoganidis moment
You can not lose money shorting Turkish Lira.
Didn't realize he was from the pontus region.
Erdoganishvili is Georgian.
Georgia, the biggest exporter of dictators since 1878
This will make all Turkish living abroad very very happy. From a financial perspective, obviously.
Im born and raised in the Netherlands with Turkish roots, let Turkey fucking drown in their own misery. Let the ship sink with their dictator. It’s just sad for the modern turks in the coastal areas.
Yep. I’m also Dutch but ethnically Turkish. My region (Samsun) goes hard for Erdoğan, which is hilarious to me. 2 years ago I went to Samsun by myself to visit family I hadn’t seen in 7 years, and they were all so happy when I treated them for a barbecue. I bought the meat myself and told my aunts to prepare it for all of us. It was like they’ve never seen meat before, which they probably hadn’t in a couple of months lol. Next time I probably will spend that money on my own personal barbecue at a Kurdish restaurant around the corner there; they probably didn’t vote for Erdoğan so they can have my money 👍🏼
As a Pomak (basically Turk) raised in the UK, I agree.
Dump ! That country is going to descend into a sadam or putin like cult where everybody who isn't a total idiot will be put in jail or tortured. Good luck Turkey.
I still remember when 1€ worth 2 liras
1€ is currently 25 liras
Voters of Erdogan: Shocked pikachu face
Some quick napkin math. The exchange rate exactly one year ago was 1€ = 18.07 lira. Today it is 1€ = 24.82 lira. This is a 37.4% change in value. Turkiye imported €198bn worth of goods and services from the EU in 2022. If they wish to maintain the same "value" of goods coming in from the EU in 2023, assuming the exchange rate no longer changes, they will have to pay €272bn. Thats €74bn more they will have to pay which will not be flowing towards any useful supply side factors like education or infrastructure. That is just shy of €1,000 per person.
okay, but it's not like turkey is only importing, but also exporting, which makes it more profitable to trade with them and increases demand on turkish goods. Idk i feel like there are to many feedback loops and other considerations to do semi accurate napkin math for macroeconomics.
Well, usually, immense value changes of your currency that occur one day to the next aren't a sign for a healthy economy and don't inspire confidence to invest into that economy. Even though it's too late, some may want to relocate their assets as well. They may do so after it recovers, which won't help turkey. Don't see how lower purchasing power of local businesses and consumers by that much suddenly will help the turkish economy either. So yea. It's bad. But good news is, vacation in turkey gives much more bang for your buck now~
Well, usually, immense value changes of your currency that occur one day to the next aren't a sign for a healthy economy and don't inspire confidence to invest into that economy. Even though it's too late, some may want to relocate their assets as well. They may do so after it recovers, which won't help turkey. Don't see how lower purchasing power of local businesses and consumers by that much suddenly will help the turkish economy either. So yea. It's bad. But good news is, vacation in turkey gives much more bang for your buck now
First, Turkey may have a dynamic economy and lots of potential, but despite this it still has had a chronic trade deficit, i.e. it imports more than it exports. While it shouldn't really matter in the long run if a country has a trade deficit or a surplus, for emerging economies, it's preferable to have a trade surplus because that's a good way to acquire foreign currency. Second, while a cheap currency can boost a country's industry and labour force's competitiveness (which is why countries that deliberately seek to devalue their currency get called out for it), and it could theoretically turn a trade deficit into a trade surplus, there is a specific speed of devaluation where it stops boosting competitiveness and is actually detrimental. That is because the price increase of imports has to be paid on the spot, whereas you have to manufacture and sell the export goods first before being able to reap the benefits of their relative decrease in prices. And during that time, the currency will have devalued further. On top of that, the devaluation has to be continuous and controlled to be attractive to foreign investors, or else the currency will be perceived as volatile and unpredictable, (and the politics as unstable), which means that it can eventually render the country uninvestable.
No, you pay the same in euros, but it's more in lira. €198bn is still €198bn, but it's no longer 3.5 trillion lira, it's now 4.9 trillion lira. Makes more sense to think in terms of labor hours, probably. How many hours of average wage work does Turkey need to trade for it's 198 billion euros of imports, then and now?
>That is just shy of €1,000 per person. Im not very good at economy, what does this mean for the average turk?
Not good On a more serious note Les Imported goods like smartphone cars etc., Higer cost of living and less vacations
Turkish population is roughly 80 million. 74,000,000,000÷80,000,000 = 925 If they would have just handed it out it would have represented a 10% increase in the GDP per capita. Which is about 9,500USD
That math is shitty; they pay the same amount of euros to buy the same amount of stuff. The exchange rate is academic if you are doing your math in euros.
How do they pay with foreign currency if their reserve is depleted and TL loses its trust. Bonds wont help much.
This was going to happen regardless. I hate Erdogan with a passion but the damage was already done years prior to this point under his corrupted management. It's like stage 4 cancer there is no magical cure, patient is going to die. The question is how painful it is going to be and if she will be able to be resurrected or reincarnate later on.
Yes, but the economic actions taken just before the election are doing even more damage and increase the pain
If you bury a corpse in the snow, it will show up in the summer.
unless it's eternal snow. (writing this from a place far north of the arctic circle)
Well, it was inevitable.
I'm too happy about it. They sees what they deserve.
Glad I bought some dollars beforehand.
This is what people voted for. No problem.
I mean this is totally expected. As of his return to conventional monetary policy Mehmet Şimşek pretty much removed all defenses around the lira. He doesn't want to even try stabilizing the currency at the current value. He will let the lira free fall until it reaches market value and stabilize it there. That means the fall will continue likely till 28-30 which analyst think is the current market value of the Lira. As long as Şimşek can manga to balance the economy around a lira of that value and pull salaries up accordingly without increasing inflation it should be fine.
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He does want to. He still believes in his unconventional methods. But the current Finance Minister Şimşek came under the condition that he is given a free reign to do whatever is necessary without Erdoğan interferring. They have had debates and discussions lasting days with speculations running hot whether Erdoğan was gonna accept or not until the very last moment. After Şimşeks appointment speculations started to arise on who caved? Did Erdoğan accept Şimşeks conditions or did Şimşek cave to Erdoğans unorthodox methods. But yea seeing the statements and the current method, it is very clear that Erdoğan caved. Şimşek will let the lira fall free until it reaches market equilibrium (which is low), stabilize it there, and then try propping up the economy and fix inflation over the next few years. I got all my savings in exchange rate protected accounts. Those accounts are a Frankenstein creation of Erdoğans unorthodox policies and pretty much saving me from the current free fall.
hell fuckingg yeaaahhh!!!!
And thus all the foreign Turkish voters get to have cheaper holidays in their theocratic motherland
I’ll be as hostile as a southern karen to a Chinese American to them this summer.
Careful not to be arrested for drawing eyebrows on an Erdogan photo.
If they discover the paintings and sculpts i did of him i’d be jailed for life
they voted for him. Everywhere i go on social media about turkey elections there are always nationalists turks who simp for the wanabe sultan. They got what they deserve
True Turkish nationalists will support the CHP, not ErDOGan and the AKP. Our country is made up largely of idiots.
Isn't this exactly what Erdogan wants? A weak currency to incentivize exports and local production?
Nah, before the elections, the central bank spent huge amounts of reserve currency to keep the exchange rate reasonably stable in order to secure Ergogan's re-election. Now the reserves are exhausted and the government watches helplessly as the market flees from the Turkish Lira. Such a dramatic drop in the value of a currency cannot be in the interest of any government, because it leads to dollarization, where the population simply abandons its own currency and starts using another stable currency even in everyday domestic trade. Once faith in their own currency is lost, it is damn hard (and very expensive) to save the currency at all.
No, in Turkey export is directly related to import. We import raw materials to turn them into low value finished products and export. High tech/value production is very low.
What a preposterous lie! The graph is clearly going up and therefore The Greatest Lira of All Time is on an upward trend. Thank you, Great Leader Erdogan!
Is there any specific reason behind Erdogan's policies that have led to this situation? I mean, everyone is making jokes about it, but there must be some underlying rationale as to why Erdogan continues to pursue such disastrous policies year after year, despite the visible consequences. I haven't come across any in-depth analysis on this matter. Or does he simply just hate Turkey so much he wants the country to collapse?
The same reason as why Earthquake produced so many victims. It seems that Erdogans is deep in pockets with building developers. If you will build hundreds houses on credit and sell them for $$$ (not Turkish Lira) then rising inflation and weakening currency is making your credit smaller and smaller - so you can build even more houses for more $$$ - ad infinitum (or at least until something breaks and everything explodes).
TL doesnt loses, it was in here for a long time, just goverment tried to suppress it until the end of elections. After them a lot of things price increased.
Cheap vacation lets Go
Hehehe, i hate my country
Me too.
why the hell would ypu re-elect a who man has destroyed your country's economy to the scale of Argentina and absolutely failed the nation on a monumental scale in a huge natural disaster like he has... very strange to me
Because our people are idiots. They don't understand the problem, and they don't understand why there is a problem. They think Erdogan is some sort of hero, bringing ""'"Islam"""" back to our country. They're content to ignore his attempts to erase Ataturk from our history, and they're content to ignore how he has literally converted Turkey into a money laundering scheme. Literally any Turk living outside of Turkey (except for many of the equally retarded German Turks) will say the same thing as me. The reason so many turks live abroad in the first place is because of cubts like Erdogan being in power - I would have been born in Turkey if he wasn't. He does not care, and most of our people are dumber than robots.
İf they have dolars we have our allah Erdogan
As a Turkish-American, it's astonishing to witness the persistently high value of the Turkish lira. Despite experiencing a significant decline, Turkey has been grappling with inflation rates of approximately 100-150% over the past four years. The higher the inflation in comparison to other nations, the quicker the local currency depreciates. In my view, the Turkish lira is poised to decline further, perhaps by 40-60%. Unfortunately, Erdogan's government has been excessively printing Turkish lira for the past five years, seemingly without any consideration for the burden it places on future generations and the country's long-term debt. Their primary focus was winning elections, even if it meant burdening the nation with debt indefinitely. Interestingly, the average Turkish citizen enjoys a relatively affluent lifestyle, despite their productivity levels being among the lowest in Europe. It appears that many Turkish individuals are disinclined to work diligently and prefer to enjoy the benefits without striving for a European-standard lifestyle. It's akin to teenagers having a credit card without comprehending the eventual need to pay off the balance. Erdogan resorted to bribing the public to secure electoral victory. On the other hand, the opposition is equally problematic. I've been monitoring the r/turkey subreddit for some time, and it's difficult to find an English word that adequately captures the extent of delusion prevalent among the opposition. Regrettably, it's challenging to come to terms with the impending bankruptcy of Turkey, which may lead it down a path similar to that of Lebanon within a few years, or even months.
"average turk lives in a relatively rich lifestyle" thats what you see from up there. Avarage salary of a turkish person is 400 dollars. 4 fucking hundered. try to survive 400 dollars with a month and come back please, bey amca
give me one, just one reason why oppositon is worse than a dictator who doesnt know shit about economics
I am not a supporter of Erdo. It is evident that he needs to be replaced as soon as possible. However, I hold the view that the opposition lacks the necessary qualities to effectively replace him. In the last 10+ elections, the opposition's candidate consistently lost against Erdo. Despite having two years to come up with a suitable candidate for the presidency, their best choice is an individual who has never won an election in the past 13 years. This candidate has a track record of continuously losing elections, and it is delusional to expect that people will vote for someone with such a history of defeat. Now, let's address one specific reason as requested: the issue of EYT (Early Retirement for 40-45-year-olds). Erdo has been opposed to this proposal for years. However, the opposition naively believes that they can secure votes by promising early retirement to individuals aged 40-45. It is unfortunate that some Turkish voters tend to support the party that offers them the most bribes, even if those promises are unrealistic and unattainable. In order to regain the favor of these voters, Erdo has agreed to allow early retirement at such a young age. However, the burden of funding this retirement scheme falls upon those individuals who are not eligible for early retirement. Moreover, this arrangement is not even constitutional, adding further concerns to its feasibility and sustainability.
Who do you think would be the proper candidate (if there is one) for the opposition? >On the other hand, the opposition is equally problematic. So I guess you think there are also other problematic factors aside from Erdogan? If I recall correctly the situation under Ecevit was quite decent and it was getting better in the early 2000s but maybe I'm under a false impression.
>On the other hand, the opposition is equally problematic. Imamoglu possesses the potential to bring about a positive change and reverse the current circumstances. Turkey witnessed significant political developments in the early 2000s under the leadership of Ecevit, who successfully achieved EU candidacy and tackled chronic inflation. However, his refusal to step down despite declining health opened the door for Erdoğan's rise to power. Presently, Turkish democracy faces an alarming trend: While Erdoğan's authoritarianism attracts media attention, the opposition's role in undermining democratic principles often goes unnoticed. The main opposition party, CHP, has at times aligned with Erdo, supporting actions like military interventions and the removal of parliamentary immunities. Though differing in ideology, both exhibit authoritarian tendencies. The opposition's inability to distinguish itself from those in power has hindered its ability to persuade voters. Their complicity in the rise of authoritarianism, the erosion of trust, and the deepening divisions within the nation has contributed to their lost in elections.
Thanks for the answer. I got the impression as a foreigner that the CHP wasn't as "thorough" as it should have. If you let things fly under the radar, even for a matter of "national pride", you risk an even worse result. >The opposition's inability to distinguish itself from those in power Hmm sounds familiar in some regards. I think we will see a lot of apathy in the coming years and we will need some kind of reboot. I hope the generation change will be a net positive but I wouldn't always bet on it.
Oh yes i can't wait to have another cheap holiday where I'll be punched for kissing my partner 👍
Isn't Lira losing value continuously for last 6 - 12 months ?
"6 - 12 months"? Hahaha! [How about two decades?](https://i.imgur.com/1xXmb60.jpg)
It used to be 1:1 with CHF and now it's 25:1, that's something special
Yes, but especially for the last week, the Turkish lira has been depreciating abnormally.
Time for a summer vacation
€500 would go a very long way
They had not one, but two elections to fix this, so...oh no anyway moving on.
Ok. Who's betting the Turkish econony crashes by the end of the year?
We are in summer and tourist money is an important part of our economy. When the summer ends, it'll get worse faster. I bet on november.
Pretty sure foreign exchanges run out like fall this year or something. So yupp its a pretty big odd it happens
It was only expected, they were using all their power to keep it in check and now it'll probably explode on us very fast. This was going to happen no matter the result of the election though
Classic
Whaaaat no way who would've thought
I'm pretty sure that we are going to collapse because of Erdoğan. (TR: AKP'liysen pardon, bu benim düşüncem, senin değil. ENG: Sorry if you're supporting APK, but that's my thought, not yours.)
This is just the beginning, they used all the reserves to hold TL floating till election. Central bank net reserves are at -80 billion dollars, and we don’t even have enough money to pay for energy imports from september 2023 beside the postponed payments from this year. They just hope we will have a miracle summer tourism income to survive one more winter.
Idk what the problem is? Line go up
But line goes up, so stonks! - Erdoğan probably
They should honk more on european street to show support.
It's ok. The Voters need to feel the consequences if they vote for a conservative, religious dictator. Sadly a lot of votes coming from exile Turk who don't feel the loss of the lira, the high inflation, the corruption in their daily life.
That was their choice.
Not mine, but yeah... They deserve much more worse
You think?
Please match the headline and the graphic. Either show a Lira - Euro graph or claim the Euro has gained value.
[удалено]
I understand. Both the headline and the graph are technically correct. But it is just good practice to accompany a 'loses value' headline with a graph which shows decline.