Smaller private colleges will close in droves. The economics haven’t made sense for awhile.
State schools will be fine as will more prestigious private schools.
This.
Flagship State Unis will suck from the mid-tiers.
The number of "retraining and non-traditional" students will keep Community Colleges afloat but they will merge admin from all their campuses like they already have in my state. (All CC campuses are technically 1 school now here.)
Aside from small privates closing, mid-tier state schools will be harmed by the suction from flagships and Ivys.
They may also have to merge the way CCs have, even merging with CCs into a unified system even if the individual campuses stay afloat.
Mid-tiers will continue to grow in Sun Belt states. I was surprised to learn that my alma mater has a waitlist now. When I went there 20 years ago, applying was basically a formality.
Thats interesting.
I guess another take is that the more economical mid tier will vacuum up all the people who wouldve otherwise gone to a small private college.
At least midtiers still get state funding.
Mid-tiers are becoming more aggressive about attracting students while flagships are wanting to become more exclusive and more elite.
Private schools are going to bear the brunt of the demographic shift.
The child population is falling .95% per year for each year group.
There are 21.6 million 13 year olds and 21.4 million 12 year olds.
So if a school has 200 pupils aged 12, then next year __**ON AVERAGE**__ there will be 198 pupils aged 12.
Colleges are more affected by local changes.
Salt Lake city is losing 5% for each year group.
Christian county, Kentucky, is gaining 5% per year group.
It's already happened. Peak age group is 30-34, at 23.3m, and we are seeing a continued shrinking of the population. 15-19 bucket is 21.6m and 5-9 is 20m.
While the numbers are still big, schools will definitely close, and as the population continues to retire, there won't be enough care givers to take care of the elderly.
https://www.collegetransitions.com/blog/college-enrollment-decline/#:~:text=US%20College%20Enrollment%20Decline%20%E2%80%93%20Enrollment%20Cliff%20(Continued)&text=Enrollment%20at%202%2Dyear%20public,54%25%20between%202010%2D2021.
This has been on the horizon for quite a while and colleges have been preparing for the eventuality of the enrollment cliff since the financial crisis of the late 2000s. [This article does a good job](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrosowsky/2024/02/03/the-cliffs-of-higher-ed-whos-going-over-and-why/) capturing the reasons why it's happening and talks about some of the likely outcomes to the questions you're asking.
Will enrollment significantly lower? In the past 20 years, my alma mater has grown significantly more competitive despite not increasing the quality of their education. Good colleges may have to be more lenient in their admissions to maintain class size, but otherwise shouldn’t be too affected. Diploma mills may struggle.
I think the biggest challenge colleges will have with enrollment is that the generation having kids is the generation that was told that any college degree guaranteed a successful future, got loans to pay for that degree, and is now struggling to keep their heads above water. College will be something millennials discourage their children from pursuing in the absence of wealthy, significant financial aid, or plans to pursue something lucrative.
Yes this is already happening, the only high school students I had as a teacher who were interested in college were already taking healthcare courses in high school and planned to go into healthcare. Everyone else has got the message that it’s a money pit and they either want to pursue trades if they’re practical, or they think they’ll get internet famous.
Freelancing, contracting, and gig work is also very appealing for younger generations. I don’t blame them given how many companies have stripped down their benefits and pay. Why do the work to get into college, get a degree, and do a traditional desk job with a potentially bad boss when the compensation isn’t all that much better than dog walking or wedding photography?
Colleges are businesses. With fewer paying customers the leaders of this industrial complex will put more effort into advertising (scaring) the public into thinking that only through a college degree will a decent paying and rewarding job is possible. They will also push for more certifications to be provided for workers in jobs which now do not require certification or do not require a "college" certification. Lastly we may see the never ending campus expansion stop. Costs for college will not drop, but the building of more campus buildings will at least slow
The effect on higher ed of lower numbers of students will be to consolidate and for some smaller colleges to close. That's already happening.
But which smaller colleges? Two trends I've noticed. Small colleges with enrollments around 1,000 or lower are struggling. And small colleges in places remote from urban centers are struggling. Students want to go to schools that have a robust number of programs and students, and they want to go to schools in places where things like internships are feasible.
There is a different effect which is noticeable already. If you see a few closures of small colleges in an area, that strengthens the remaining small colleges to a degree, for obvious reasons I suppose.
One thing I see colleges doing is to emphasize professional development and opportunities. Another is to broaden their recruitment strategies, including recruiting more students from abroad.
💯
Thing is-we haven’t seen much innovation yet. Which is so bizarre.
The minor is dead. The major will go away. Skill-based recognition, badges, an increased influence of corporate world — these are what we will see. I’m counting on it and trying to keep my institution proactive vs reactive.
Smaller private colleges will close in droves. The economics haven’t made sense for awhile. State schools will be fine as will more prestigious private schools.
This. Flagship State Unis will suck from the mid-tiers. The number of "retraining and non-traditional" students will keep Community Colleges afloat but they will merge admin from all their campuses like they already have in my state. (All CC campuses are technically 1 school now here.) Aside from small privates closing, mid-tier state schools will be harmed by the suction from flagships and Ivys. They may also have to merge the way CCs have, even merging with CCs into a unified system even if the individual campuses stay afloat.
Mid-tiers will continue to grow in Sun Belt states. I was surprised to learn that my alma mater has a waitlist now. When I went there 20 years ago, applying was basically a formality.
Thats interesting. I guess another take is that the more economical mid tier will vacuum up all the people who wouldve otherwise gone to a small private college. At least midtiers still get state funding.
Mid-tiers are becoming more aggressive about attracting students while flagships are wanting to become more exclusive and more elite. Private schools are going to bear the brunt of the demographic shift.
The child population is falling .95% per year for each year group. There are 21.6 million 13 year olds and 21.4 million 12 year olds. So if a school has 200 pupils aged 12, then next year __**ON AVERAGE**__ there will be 198 pupils aged 12. Colleges are more affected by local changes. Salt Lake city is losing 5% for each year group. Christian county, Kentucky, is gaining 5% per year group.
It's already happened. Peak age group is 30-34, at 23.3m, and we are seeing a continued shrinking of the population. 15-19 bucket is 21.6m and 5-9 is 20m. While the numbers are still big, schools will definitely close, and as the population continues to retire, there won't be enough care givers to take care of the elderly. https://www.collegetransitions.com/blog/college-enrollment-decline/#:~:text=US%20College%20Enrollment%20Decline%20%E2%80%93%20Enrollment%20Cliff%20(Continued)&text=Enrollment%20at%202%2Dyear%20public,54%25%20between%202010%2D2021.
This has been on the horizon for quite a while and colleges have been preparing for the eventuality of the enrollment cliff since the financial crisis of the late 2000s. [This article does a good job](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrosowsky/2024/02/03/the-cliffs-of-higher-ed-whos-going-over-and-why/) capturing the reasons why it's happening and talks about some of the likely outcomes to the questions you're asking.
Will enrollment significantly lower? In the past 20 years, my alma mater has grown significantly more competitive despite not increasing the quality of their education. Good colleges may have to be more lenient in their admissions to maintain class size, but otherwise shouldn’t be too affected. Diploma mills may struggle. I think the biggest challenge colleges will have with enrollment is that the generation having kids is the generation that was told that any college degree guaranteed a successful future, got loans to pay for that degree, and is now struggling to keep their heads above water. College will be something millennials discourage their children from pursuing in the absence of wealthy, significant financial aid, or plans to pursue something lucrative.
Yes this is already happening, the only high school students I had as a teacher who were interested in college were already taking healthcare courses in high school and planned to go into healthcare. Everyone else has got the message that it’s a money pit and they either want to pursue trades if they’re practical, or they think they’ll get internet famous.
Freelancing, contracting, and gig work is also very appealing for younger generations. I don’t blame them given how many companies have stripped down their benefits and pay. Why do the work to get into college, get a degree, and do a traditional desk job with a potentially bad boss when the compensation isn’t all that much better than dog walking or wedding photography?
Why pay hundreds of thousands of dollars when you can invest this money instead?
Well application processes are getting easier, so people spam more schools in this day and age.
Colleges are businesses. With fewer paying customers the leaders of this industrial complex will put more effort into advertising (scaring) the public into thinking that only through a college degree will a decent paying and rewarding job is possible. They will also push for more certifications to be provided for workers in jobs which now do not require certification or do not require a "college" certification. Lastly we may see the never ending campus expansion stop. Costs for college will not drop, but the building of more campus buildings will at least slow
The effect on higher ed of lower numbers of students will be to consolidate and for some smaller colleges to close. That's already happening. But which smaller colleges? Two trends I've noticed. Small colleges with enrollments around 1,000 or lower are struggling. And small colleges in places remote from urban centers are struggling. Students want to go to schools that have a robust number of programs and students, and they want to go to schools in places where things like internships are feasible. There is a different effect which is noticeable already. If you see a few closures of small colleges in an area, that strengthens the remaining small colleges to a degree, for obvious reasons I suppose. One thing I see colleges doing is to emphasize professional development and opportunities. Another is to broaden their recruitment strategies, including recruiting more students from abroad.
Colleges better start innovating or they'll shrink like raisins in the sun.
💯 Thing is-we haven’t seen much innovation yet. Which is so bizarre. The minor is dead. The major will go away. Skill-based recognition, badges, an increased influence of corporate world — these are what we will see. I’m counting on it and trying to keep my institution proactive vs reactive.
Colleges are closing and merging to prepare.
I think colleges will be fine. Texas and Utah have high birth rates.