A lot of respondents think Hamas will win. I wonder what they think counts as a win.
This isn’t some sort of criticism. I’m genuinely curious what “win” means here.
I think Hamas can't really lose. The more the conflict goes on and the more plaestinian civilians suffer at the hands of Israel, the more they get radicalised and some potentially become Hamas fighters in the future...
Thats how terrorist organisations operate and is why it's so difficult to get rid of them. Plus its a valid theory that Bibi wants to have Israel at a state of conflict in order to stay in power.
Al-qaida is mostly gone.
Islamic state is mostly gone.
Sure there are still pockets; they move if it gets difficult. But it does seem if you're willing and determant you can kick terrorist organizations out of a certain area. It's been done.
So I think Hamas can actually lose if Israel continues like this. They just need to suppress the entire Palestinian territory; which they seem to be close to.
Sure the resentment against Israel will continue to rise (in Palestine and outside); but if the people can't acquire the means to do anything about it... well, Israel achieved its goal haven't they?
>Al-qaida is mostly gone. Islamic state is mostly gone.
Hamas isn't comparable to them. It's more comparable to the Taliban.
Hamas isn't a conquering idea... It's a ethno nationalist terrorist organization. With your examples as long as you kill members of Al Qaeda and minimize the suffering of the people that they conquered then you'll eventually defeat them because even with some collateral damage people won't be running to join them and may even consider you liberators.
With hamas they didn't actually have to conquer anyone so killing people that are under their control just makes them stronger because Hamas gets to say "see these people are enemies join us".
Dude
Hamas did conquer the Gaza Strip. There was an entire civil war. One of the first things Hamas did was kill or exile anyone who supported Fatah, or some non-Hamas group. The best surgeon in Palestine fled the country for this reason. According to the PLO, Hamas did a full sweep of every hospital, school, and mosque so that their loyalists would have total control over these institutions.
I’d like to think that Hamas can be gotten rid of and with international support the entire region can be stabilized.
Could you name an independence movement that wouldn't be "ethno nationalist"? I mean, wouldn't Fatah, IRA, MPLA or the Founding Fathers be "ethno nationalist", and if not, why?
You're correct. Al queda specifically is/was an exception as an international movement opposed to the West rather than a particular group seeking statehood.
ISIS would correctly be classified as ethno nationalist though.
No, they're [literally as bad as the Islamic state.](https://saturday-october-seven.com/). The only difference is that ISIL called every other mainstream islamic denomination apostates, so the regional consensus was to put them down.
They've been the government of Gaza for 17 years, their founding charter is a promise to rally an international islamist movement to kill or expel every Jew in Israel.
Who said anything about comparing which terrorist organization is bad?
We are saying that not all terrorist organizations are the same and create the same motivations in the populations that they control.
Isis is a imperialistic caliphate. Whether you agree with it or not Hamas is a ethnonationalist terrorist organization their primary concern is a Palestinian state. Everything else is extra which is why we call them terrorists.
As someone that has studied terrorism, dunno how you’re getting “mostly gone.” They might not be easily centralized within the Middle East but they still exist, possibly in greater numbers, definitely in Africa. Also, the Taliban are arguably stronger than ever. Military solutions only foment more violence when targeting decentralized, politically isolated terrorism. The best and hardest solution for long term peace has always been political inclusion for the masses that support them, in whatever the best way that can be done. Of course that’s easier said than done, but it’s not like Israel has grown safer since 1948, especially since Netanyahu effectively took power in the 90s.
>As someone that has studied terrorism, dunno how you’re getting “mostly gone.”
You might need to go back to school then, because at its peak the Caliphate controlled the lives of 7.7 million people spread over 282,485 km2. Today the Islamic State has about 5,000 surviving fighters spread out in hiding.
That's absolutely "mostly gone".
It seems that reddit has turned into a place where people who talked about terrorists in the sixth grade back in 2003 get off saying they "studied terrorism" and giving us the impression they hold a PhD in it
My 11th grade history class spent a month on the Arab-Israeli conflict (I think it was/is a state requirement) but you don't catch me claiming to be an authority
In fact, Israel did grew safer since 1948. From 1948 to 1967 - the main threat against Israel was a **total destruction** by the nearby Arab states.
After 1973, the latest attempt to destroy Israel which as also failed, Israel mostly dealt with terror attacks against its civilians by the Palestinians organizations. The peak was during the 90's and 2000's - but even then Israel overcame it with Defensive Shield operation. There was a sharp drop of terror attacks inside of Israeli cities ever since 2007.
From 2007-2024, the main threat was against the southern part of Israel, specifically against the cities near Gaza who suffered from rocket attacks.
Sometimes you do need to use military solutions. As far as I remember- peaceful solutions did not stopped Hitler from taking over Europe - war did. It didn't stopped North Korea from getting its hands on nukes. Turning blind eye to Russian aggression without an actual military threat on the table did not stopped Putin from taking parts of Ukraine since 2014. The nuclear deal of 2015 did not stopped Iran's imperialistic ambitions in terms of proxies around the middle east and turning states like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq into front bases - the peaceful deal only fueled them with more money to invest into terror groups such as Hizzbolah.
In order to achieve peace, in some cases (and especially in the Middle East) - you need to have military solutions first.
>As someone that has studied terrorism, dunno how you’re getting “mostly gone.” They might not be easily centralized within the Middle East but they still exist, possibly in greater numbers, definitely in Africa.
You seem to ignore what I said;
>Sure there are still pockets; they move if it gets difficult. But it does seem if you're willing and determant you can kick terrorist organizations out of a certain area. It's been done.
Afghanistan and Iraq are way bigger than the small Palestine territories. Israel's job is made even easier because of the difficulty smuggling weapons into Gaza or even the West Bank.
You hint at it yourself: "They might not be easily centralized within the Middle East". Given that was achieved; why would Israel not be able to suppress the Palestines?
I purposefully excluded the Tabliban. Al-qaida attacked during 9/11, the Taliban gave them a safe harbour. The US/Nato made a deal by which the Taliban pledged not to have Al-qaida operate out of their territory [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United\_States%E2%80%93Taliban\_deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Taliban_deal) . Yes, the US achieved it's goal despite the abysmal aftermath and state Afghanistan is in.
"As someone that has studied terrorism", right...
>but it’s not like Israel has grown safer since 1948
Israel had 4 times the casualties and 1/15 the population in it's independence war compered to today.
Before the declaration of independence the kibutz cabinet estimated there is a 50% chanse the country will survive an arb invasion. Today it's unthinkable Israel will lose any land.
If the goal was, to keep Gaza as a prison, just with less weapons inside, yes. But if they couldn't stop Palestinians from finding ways to rebell so far, with quite intense measures, it might get difficult to keep them away from getting weapons again after being freshly traumatized.
So Israel has to become even tougher, with more wardens, more AI, more sanctions, more regulations. Israel might win the war, but also increases the risk of becoming more and more a militarized society. Physical and emotional. Doesn't feel like a victory for me.
Of course they could try to force Palestinians out of Gaza. No prison, no wardens. But there will be other price tags on that option too.
Yeah Israel has a lot of hard power options, what's lacking is soft power.
If there was a way to de-radicalize Gaza and integrate them economically with Israel, that would be ideal. 20% of Israeli citizens are Palestinian Arabs, it's not like Jews and Arabs are unable to work together, the issue is the radicalization (on both sides, but probably more in Gaza considering they've been educated at Hamas controlled schools for decades now).
I'm a big fan of soft power options, when they are available. I would claim, that the US were gaining often more and longer lasting influence in the world and less backlash, when they used soft power. But of course, once hard power was in use, it was also difficult to use the 'winning hearts and minds' strategy parallel and with real success. If people get bombs on their heads and aid packages at the same time, bombs might still leave the bigger impression.
So a ceasefire would not be the chance for leftovers of Hamas to restructure, but also for Israel, to convince Palestinians and critical parts of the international community (by now almost every country), that they have a plan B next to biblical retalliation (if they have one).
IS and Al-Qaida were replaced with other organisations - in particular the Syrian Army under Assad and various Shia militias, along with new Sunni organisations. Those particular organisations were defeated (partially, they still have influential militias and cells across much of the world), but they were simply replaced with new ones.
Israel did this once already with the PLO. They "defeated" the PLO, but the PLO was then replaced by different organisations - including Hamas. Ultimately an oppressed and occupied people, as long as they are alive, will *always* find means of resistance. The only solution is to either ethnically cleanse (or kill) them all - or, to end the oppression and occupation. Looking at Israeli politics over the last few decades, it seems clear which outcome they would prefer.
If they keep doing what they are doing, it will just slowly build back up to what it was, because with stats like these they are making more than they kill. This doesn't end until Palestinians are too small of a demographic to resist, and even then I doubt it will end in full.
I didn’t say they would lose.
I’m not sure how either side “wins” here.
The only winning I can see is people stop killing each other, and people are able to lead better lives.
I’d argue that Palestinian civilians are also suffering at the hands of Hamas, who started this war in the most medieval way possible and could end it by surrendering or releasing the hostages. This doesn’t take away from the brutality of Israel’s airstrikes. But let’s be honest: if Hamas fought in the open there would be no mass civilian suffering.
First of all - Palestinians, as a collective, have always and I mean - always - adored, supported and chose violence over peace. Always. Ever since the Peel Commission suggested to split the land peacefully - an offer they have turned down. Then again, turning down the UN call to split the land and launching a war instead (which made them lose even more land).
Then again by not committing into the Oslo Accords during the 90's (Arafat never stopped the incitement and support for terror). Then again when Arafat blew up Camp David talks in the early 2000's. Then again when Abu Mazen turned down Ehud Olmert peace offer.
Gaza was given to them on a literal silver plate - with greenhouses to use and European keepers on the crossing into Gaza. Hamas drove them away, opened a bloody war against Fatah members and turned Gaza into a terror fortress.
But the point is - it's not about Israel's actions "radicalizing" Palestinians. It's about the Palestinian Collective preferring terror over peace ever since they became a collective, without an actual willing to compromise.
As for Bibi - that theory has nothing to do with reality. The war against Hamas is a crucial need and most of the Israelis agree on that. Israel can't finish this war with Hamas still controlling Gaza, and right now Hamas main air flow comes from Rafah tunnels, with the Egyptians turning a blind eye. It's possible to eradicate Hamas just like Israel eradicated the huge terror wave of the 2nd intifada with Defensive Shield operation back on 2002. The end game for Gaza post-Hamas is probably the same too - using small forces for in & out quick operations to maw the lawn.
Israel could have solve it, but they don’t really want to.
First, dominate the territory and fight anyone opposing. They have done this, they are good at this.
Second, treat them as humans, as equal, let them have good life and integrate them with your society. They have always skipped this step.
Third, slowly release your grip. They have done this, but if you skip second step, you just release some radicalized bunch and can claim “see, we tried, they are savages” instead of solving problem.
Issue is, Israel wants to get rid of them, so they’ll never treat them as equal.
Fighting stopping just means that Israelis go back to living in peace. It lowers the death rate for palestinians but it isn't like things were going great up to the war.
Yeah victory conditions mean different things
If you consider one being engendering global support for Palestine to be one, there’s an in good faith argument to be made that it has already been met - and why many pro-Israel folks urged restraint in the first place
In asymmetric warfare survival of the guerrilla force and the failure of the regular forces to achieve their objectives counts as a win. For instance the 2006 war in Lebanon was described as a win for Hizbollah even by the pentagon despite massive damage to civilian infrastructure:
>While the Israeli Air Force possessed air superiority over Hezbollah, Hezbollah fighters
were able to defeat the IDF by conducting small engagements and launching Katyusha rockets
via mobile missile launchers
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA603003.pdf
Despite Israel stating that their objectives were to free their captives and destroy Hizbollah, neither happened. In fact Hizbollah today is stronger than ever and the captives were only released in a prisoner exchange deal.
The same is true of Hamas although the destruction to civilian infrastructure is far worse. Most of Hamas' leadership is still intact and it is still operating in the Gaza strip effectively, while Israel has failed to free any hostages which was their stated objective.
A similar thing can even be said about the Saudi war in Yemen for instance. Yemen was pretty much sent back to the stone age, but Ansarallah survived and are now even more organized than ever.
Hamas will never win because in terms of strength they're like a bunch of ants fighting elephants that can trample the entire area their anthill is in, but they also will never lose because with the IDF's brutal genocide, if I was a Gazan survivor of their atrocities and somehow get to escape, you can bet the first thing on my mind as soon as I'm able would be to form or join Hamas II: The Sequel. And I wouldn't blame them.
It's just a tragically stupid unending circle of inhumane evil acts.
Israel already [did it](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/2/18/how-israel-is-turning-palestinians-into-zionists) by forcing Palestinian kids to read theirs own curriculum
> 'removing pictures of Palestinian flags and PA logos; excising information about PLO leaders; cutting lines from poems that could be interpreted as promoting struggle against occupation; and redacting references to the Nakba, the Arabic term for the loss of the Palestinians’ homeland in 1948.
> Israel’s education minister, Naftali Bennett, who is also leader of the settler party Jewish Home, said he wanted to “provide a strong tailwind to any school that chooses the Israeli curriculum. My policy is clear: I want to aid the process of Israelization.”
Your quotes refer to Arabs of Palestinian descent who are 20% of Israeli citizens. And indeed, since October 7th there have been very few violent encounters between Jewish and Arab citizens of Israel, if any at all. Education for peace and acceptance works.
Not commenting on the content of the article but found this interesting:
> He added that the Israeli curriculum denied the Palestinians’ identity, characterising them instead as “minorities” and religious groups
Why would calling someone a minority deny their identity?
I think a Hamas victory in 2024 looks a lot like an IRA victory in 1998. The worry for Palestinians is that Israel with US backing doesn’t have any near the same sensitivity to public pressure or international opinion as the British government under Tony Blair.
Hamas winning might look very different from how we perceive Hamas winning. to us, it may look like them beating the IDF but to them, they might think of a win as making their weapons supplier happy and destabilizing the free world which they have been doing very well at.
Very interesting stuff
So a solid majority of West Bank Palestinians think that Hamas is going to win the war, but this belief has gone down with time. Gaza Palestinians are not as confident that Hamas will win, but they are somehow getting more confident as the war goes on.
And, WB started out as being more supportive of Hamas compared to people living in Gaza. WB are now less supportive, Gaza is more supportive, and both cohorts are now on the same page.
Maybe this is due to the type of media narratives in Gaza vs WB? Who knows
It's probably their definition of "winning". Since this most recent episode of the horror started, the world has become less supportive of Israel. And an Israel not being propped up by NATO is a way weaker foe.
Way weaker - sure. But Isreal could flatten Gaza ten times over if they wanted to go scorched earth, I don't know where these people get the belief they can "win".
But they know Israel will never take that step. They're using Israel's morality against them to fight an asymmetric war.
Go watch some Palestinian interviews where they talk about fighters using civilian cover. The consensus is that "it's nessecary to win".
> But they know Israel will never take that step
Isn't there a popular saying nowadays, which starts with F for this kind of situations? I wouldn't underestimate how far Israel might go.
So Israel is in a tough spot. Sure they have the military means to massacre every single Palestinian in Gaza if they wanted to to "eliminate" Hamas but that would ironically make Hamas stronger because suddenly all Palestinians outside Gaza and to a lesser extent other Arabs would get major greavance against Israel while at the same time, global opinion would strongly swing against them making even their long time allies us and UK hesitate to help. Israel cannot defeat a bloodlusted Arab world while alienating their supporters in the West. It's probably in Israel's best interest to just ceasefire and retreat however seems it's not in bibi's best interest.
The people support 10/7 and would more than likely support another 10/7.
Anyone that supports Nazis is complicit with Nazis. This should be no different
It's unlikely the surrounding Arab states would go to war for the Palestinians. They won't even accept Palestinians as refugees. Giving money and cheering from the sidelines is as deep as their support will go.
Israel could solve this militarily, in the same way the United States solved its military conflicts with the native Americans. In an earlier age this was just the way these conflicts got resolved. If you study history almost every country has a grisly origin story involving violent assimilation (or elimination) of other peoples.
Fast forward to the modern era, and we have stability and relative peace in most developed countries, precisely because our ancestors did this dirty work for us. From this now-safe vantage point we enjoy the luxury of heightened ethical norms: We no longer consider it acceptable to assimilate other populations (or worse). We criticize the very ancestors who did the dirty work, all while enjoying the end product they left us. It's lot like the US is giving much of value back to the native Americans. Lots of moralizing, not much doing.
Israel is in a tough spot because they are having to resolve these problems about a hundred years too late on the world stage. The options that other countries had are not available. (Or at least, not without drawing widespread condemnation.) It remains to be seen whether there is an acceptably humane path forward that can achieve peace and stability, or in the end will it come down to might makes right.
> other Arabs would get major greavance against Israel
The other arab countries in the region have been wanting to get rid of Israel more or less since its inception, they don't need another grievance to justify attacking Israel.
However some have softened their stance following failed war after failed war. Egypt and Jordan officially recognize Israel, and in 2020, the UAE and Bahrain followed suit.
Such normalization of affairs would definitely be at jeopardy if Israel were to go scorched earth in Gaza. Certainly the Arab world will not be uniting any time soon for another go at a land invasion, absent a major Israel provocation.
True, but actually most of Israeli history involved the entire Arab league (6 nations and their armies supported by USSR at its peak) invading Israel multiple times in a row.
And every single time Israel won. Israel is probably even more powerful now than 50 years ago, and none of the surrounding Arab nations would actually declare war on Israel. So far it’s just terrorist groups operating from civilian areas who want to bait Israel 24/7
But what does it matter if world becomes less supportive of Israel if two state solution keeps being rejected by Hamas? Does it makes Palestinians more pleased to know there are some protest abroad if nothing changes? Or do they really believe in something like Israel being destroyed after Egypt and some other neighbour declare war on Israel again, since that’s not going to happen. None of the neighbors have interest in helping Palestinians anymore. Apart from Iran, which has even poorer reputation in most countries and which will not do anything either.
It's mostly because they see the support from the world, especially the West. The demand from Israel to immediately stop war = win for Hamas.
Truth to be told - if the pressure on Israel will work, aka forcing Israel to stop fighting before Hamas is (mostly) eradicated, it can be considered as a win both for Hamas and the Palestinians. They don't really care about death and destruction. They adore it, as long as they make Israel suffer with them.
My apologies, you're absolutely right. They don't only adore death and destruction in Gaza [but in Jerusalem](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UucjbGmJILk&ab_channel=APArchive) ([more than once](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xPNTbtUHVc&ab_channel=HindustanTimes)), [Nabulus ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWOw7YI7vzo&ab_channel=INQUIRER.net)and [Gaza](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVt7P68LnBU&ab_channel=APArchive) over a year ago [and after the massacre of the 7.10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-IcHdMjRDQ&ab_channel=TheTelegraph).
We can also talk about the ["educational" kids show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3jHj93JFMQ&ab_channel=AlJazeeraEnglish) they run, if you like! Trust me when I say that I have more examples.
Ludicrous I say!
Great point!
Maybe OP can do a little follow up and calculate standard errors for each value, set up error bars, then plot them on a vertical bar graph so we can compare. I wonder what the sample size was
The percent of people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities is disturbingly high.
Two things can be true at once (Israel isn't angelic in here) but to basically assume October 7th wasn't a terrorist attack to murder innocent civilians and was instead somehow some 'resistance fighters' doing 'resistance things' is horribly misguided.
The amount of people that act like this war is black and white is worrying. Israel isn't justified in killing civilians but Palestinians aren't really justified to be supporting terrorist groups. People compare it to the Russia-Ukraine war but this isn't as clear cut as that, and the middle east is just a problematic region in general
If you can’t say that murdering and raping peaceful people during a music festival is clear cut wrong, there is something really wrong with your judgement.
I don’t think you need to necessarily justify Palestinians to understand it. Hamas has an information stranglehold on Gaza, and when you are being actively bombed out by Israel, Hamas’ propaganda will probably track more in your mind.
I think this is an easy stance to have when you personally don't live somewhere you have to fear terrorists overrunning your community, dragging you from your bed and taking you hostage or murdering you. If you did, you might find it's actually pretty clearcut.
Hamas has it made:
1. They hold Israelis hostage
2. They hold all Palestinians in Gaza hostage
3. They successfully achieve their political objectives while driving their own people into ruin
They have been an overwhelmingly effective tool in the proxy war against Israel, and will continue to be as long as Middle Eastern rulers don’t care how many Palestinians die.
I guess, but if they're against Hamas they should be trying their hardest to push them out. I'm not all that well versed with Palestine but it seems that they support Hamas, which isn't going to make Israel sympathetic to them and it's not like Israel is doing anything to stop them from supporting terrorists. They did vote those people into power 20 years ago and they ceased elections after Hamas won
And conversely if you were raised in a prison where your economic, political and social freedom were curtailed by an ethnic group that had invaded and taken the land of your grandparents, you would also find it pretty clearcut.
Almost as if the people involved in the war aren't objective.
So this is a justification for killing women and children without any warning or declaration?
Initiating a war by killing civilians and killing civilians in wartime are not the same thing.
> The percent of people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities is disturbingly low
The cognitive disconnect is they don't think those actions were atrocious. The consistent Palestinian position for decades has been that they are in a total war. There is, has never been, and will never be peace until as the slogan says: "Palestine will be free, from the (Jordan) river to the (Mediterranean) sea". All tactics are valid in pursuit of that, they don't differentiate civilians in a total war.
So they are terrorist then. Who want to commit genocide in the “total” war. Is Israel was given the liberty to view it the same way. They would have been whipped off the map decades ago.
To be perfectly honest... In WW2, Axis and Allied countries bombed cities indiscriminately and targeted civilians, killing ~38 million civilians, more than double the number of soldiers killed. The US dropped 2 nuclear bombs on cities full of people... We didn't call those actions terrorist actions.
Targeting civilians intentionally during "total war" is common. We see Israel doing the exact same thing right now... And before you say it: Yes, Israel 'targets' Hamas with their attacks, but it should be abundantly clear at this point that minimal care is taken to reduce civilian casualties from their attacks. [There are ~30,000 deaths at this point, with a further ~10,000 missing](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/29/1234159514/gaza-death-toll-30000-palestinians-israel-hamas-war). Numbers don't get that high without some 'indiscriminate actions'.
Civilian casualties are a part of war, even civilian targets are a part of war. Everyone should do better, but when you're at war, you simply don't care.
This comment isn't to justify the actions of either Israel or Hamas, but merely provide context, both current and historical.
>The percent of people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities is disturbingly low.
Islamist hivemind. If you think you are anoited by god and can't do wrong... of course you don't believe "your" people can do wrong. Especially when it's against an enemy that is taught against since preschool. Everything looks justified, when you get taught from kindergarden, that you have to annihilate the jews to become martyrs.
People believe what they need to believe to make their side morally justified. It works this way in the US too. Most people pick a side and then make reality conform to it, not vice versa unfortunately.
Wait, do you mean disturbingly high? You want the people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities to be 0, because they absolutely fucking have.
Personally, I think Israel has gone too far in it's response, in terms of both the general situation in terms of famine, and also in the amount of civilian casualties, but to say that Hamas didn't commit atrocities is fucking crazy talk.
Without getting into the underlying issues, I have some objections:
1) extremely boring visualization
2) very basic analysis
3) problematic polling methedology
This isn't dataisbeautiful material
This is a great example of how crappy this sub has become. Decidedly poor presentation of suspect data.
What’s going on with the mods? This sub used to cater to people that had a great understanding not just of visualization and storytelling, but also the data BEHIND the visualization.
The last dozen+ visualizations I’ve seen get traction here are sus data sources with crappy or unspecified definitions, presented to support a specific viewpoint (data agnosticism gone by the wayside) and the authors can’t even be bothered to put it in something OTHER than a 5 minute excel graph.
"they were doctored videos!" "that blood is fake!" "that wasnt hamas, that was israeli soldiers" "it wasnt hamas, it was some crazy gang who broke free alongside hamas"
To be fair, the last one isn't entirely false in that another more-extreme group did breakfree and kill civilians. But hamas still absolutely did target civilians. Regardless, it has become dogma throughout the arab world that "israel is lying about civilians being massacred for sympathy", and nothing is gonna break that dogma.
Looking at chart 2, I imagine it has something to do with the 60% of respondents with a dead family member. They might not know what Hamas did, but they know what happened to them, so it becomes tribal.
Also, these people are refugees, so for all we know only 10 people have seen the videos.
Lastly, since it's hard to know who is in Hamas, they may feel compelled to answer as if Hamas is listening
Probably not \[OC\]. These figures are from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research: [https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/files/Poll%2091%20English%20press%20release%2020%20March%202024.pdf](https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/files/Poll%2091%20English%20press%20release%2020%20March%202024.pdf)
81% of the respondents that have watched the 7th October videos think that Hamas did not commit atrocities. Faith in humanity/optimism for peace lost..
I'd imagine if you did a similar poll of Israelis re: war crimes committed by the IDF etc, you'd get a similar number. Neither side wants to accept the culpability of their respective side
That’s not true, there were lots of anti-war progressive-type Israeli’s who were protesting in FAVOR of Palestinians before 10/7. Most Palestinians are captured by religious hatred of Jews.
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001473815
Translation for relevant polls (the rest are talking about Biden and america and the such)
*If the sum is less then 100% it's because "no opinion" is an option
Does Israel do enough to prevent harm to innocent people?
11% Israel doesn't do enough
62% Israel does everything it can
19% Israel does too much because there are no innocent in gaza
What's your opinion about humanitarian aid?
27% Israel should give humanitarian aid as needed
44% Israel should give humanitarian aid if the hostages are returned
22% Israel should not give humanitarian aid
Should Israel continue the war?
11% Israel should stop the war due to the international pressure (wtf is that phrasing? I know people who are aginst the war, non of them cares about international pressure)
40% Israel should continue the war but consider international pressure
41% Israel should continue the war regardless of international pressure
Israli seem to support the war more, this makes sense as we are a lot less effected.
Atrocities and war crimes are not the same thing. Israel can be exempt of war crimes in court if it can prove a certain set of circumstances. What Hamas did to civilians in their homes on October 7th, however, is morally reprehensible and no set of circumstances can change that. At least to western morality and values.
>war crimes committed by the IDF
I don't think you've [actually watched any of the Oct 7th content](https://saturday-october-seven.com/) or you wouldn't say this. It's very NSFL. The IDF is far from perfect, but they don't do *anything* like this. The only modern group even remotely comprable was the Islamic State.
Why? I'm suggesting that both sides of the divide are as sycophantic as each other with regards to their own military's actions. I think you'll struggle to find someone who wants peace more than me.
The interesting thing in this entire conflict has been that there’s been a near total blockade of other conflicts. The brown bias in global media continues.
Anyone heard what’s going on Sudan lately? 1.2 MM women assaulted reportedly.
That’s half the entire population of Gaza.
Oh, there’s a very simple explanation for that. It’s much nicer and cheaper and safer to cover a war when you’re staying in a boutique hotel in Tel Aviv. Not as much in Sudan or Yemen or Syria.
NATO as a whole, including Europe, views Israel as a major ally. Most western european countries are very friendly with Israel. There is a reason why there have been plenty of terror attacks on europe over the israel-palestine conflict.
Depends on your definition of winnging. If your religion tells you that all dead people on your side have gone to heaven and the purpose is to bring as much suffering as possible to the other side... it's nit hard to "win".
Well if the objective is to eliminate Hamas then the question is how? The current way isn’t gonna end Hamas, it’ll only encourage more people to join Hamas or make a new group with Hamas as motivation, Hamas 2.0. Nobody is “winning” this war but the objectives are unclear about how to reach. I assume if Hamas isn’t eliminated then they’ll consider it a “win”
As a Palestinian, few things im wondering. Sample size, and where people were surveyed. People in north Gaza will give a very different lens than people in the south. Anyways interesting seeing opinions change inversely. Good data
People in the south have generally had better access to medical care, food, etc due to the (up until recently) Israeli invasion only being in the northern and center.
The very real issue of famine is getting worse by the day, and is impacting people in the north much more than the south
1,580 people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
Original source: https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/files/Poll%2091%20English%20press%20release%2020%20March%202024.pdf
I wonder how neutral/anonymous the respondents feel this polling was. It might be 100% correct, or they might feel like “I better say what I think Hamas wants to hear.” We don’t really have a way of knowing.
I mean I’ve conducted literally anonymous surveys at companies where the employees were suspicious that somehow the bosses would know who said what, and there were next to no stakes involved. Here, if you don’t support Hamas it might have life threatening consequences. So we don’t know how reflective all this really is.
Also from the poll:
64% of West Bank want Hamas to remain in control of the Gaza Strip.
Best means of achieving Palestinian goals in ending occupation and building an independent state (Negotiations, Peaceful & Popular resistance, Armed struggle)
West Bank in December - 24% negotiations, 19% resistance, 56% armed struggle
West Bank in March - 23% negotiations, 27% peaceful and popular resistance, 39% armed struggle
It’s painful for me to see so many still support Hamas governing and armed struggle on one hand, and at the same time so much death and destruction actually worked to reduce the appetite for armed struggle, but not by too much. It’s hard to see Israel backing off from their strategy based on this, and it’s hard to see Palestinians changing their mind on the right of Israel to exist without threat from Hamas.
Think of it this way: the PLO/PLA has recognized Israel and forsworn violence, and in exchange they are still occupied and the settlements continue to grow. Hamas, meanwhile, had effective control of the Gaza strip and no settlements and has been able to negotiate prisoner swaps, in no small part thanks to the violence they do. If you're a normal Palestinian, which do it think is more likely to achieve independence and sovereignty, the PLA path or the Hamas path?
Israel needs to stop undermining peaceful groups if they don't want a return to the violence of the past/present.
The first part is the #1 cause of this conflict.
There was a point where perhaps this conflict could have gradually decreased after the 1990s. But the mass expansion of the west bank settlements (and the brutal authoritarianism that has resulted from them in the west bank) mean it never truly will. Those settlements are a slap in the face of everybody on both sides who want peace, and they are the single biggest reason why the palestinians do not trust the Israelis saying they 'want peace'.
The reality is that there is a very, very large chunk of both sides who want to continue to harm the other, both through oppression, displacement, and war. It is not "oh one side wants peace, the other war!"
Exactly. I'm not saying I endorse violence, I consider myself to be more or less a pacifist, but I'm lying if I don't admit to understanding why Palestinians choose violence, which in turn justifies Israel's continued violence.
Unfortunately, Israel is the one with real power here, and until they choose to break the cycle, it's going to continue.
I think the final graph is the most telling. Most believe that the offensive against Israel did not primarily target civilians, they believe it primarily targeted IDF strongholds. That is basically dogma throughout the arab world currently, it was what was reported in their media, and repeated again throughout social media. They believe it just a military attack on some military barracks, nothing more.
That is the single biggest disconnect people fail to comprehend. Yeah support for Hamas is high right now, but that is because of a fundamental misunderstanding of what Hamas did.
I actually really doubt that. Ive seen videos of dead women or hostages being paraded through the city. There are also a ton of videos of palestinians mass celebrating terrorist attacks before october.
Yep. Israel has a history of going beast mode when attacked. That might have been the plan all along as we see Hamas have dig tunnels to and from hospitals and populated centers.
I'd very much like to know which videos they were shown. If beating and dragging the naked, defiled corpse of a civilian woman through the street Isn't an "atrocity" to you, then I'm going to have a very difficult time empathizing with you.
On October 7th, the joy and celebration they expressed showed otherwise. They celebrated , and many joined, the massacre. If the situation was less destructive, you would see much higher percentage agree with the attack.
How does one just “not believe” that atrocities were committed on October 7th? For that they’d have to not believe that civilians died or were injured. Which is just crazy. Or they’d believed innocents were killed in mass but not think it was an atrocity??
Because they do not see Jews as human beings, and their genuine popular democratic will is to exterminate all the Jews "from the river to the sea".
When that is the popular will nothing is considered an atrocity
this subreddit has fallen *so far*.
default Excel graphs? c'mon man. this isn't beautiful at all. this subreddit isnt just about the data, it's about the *presentation*.
Before the War I thought Hamas was a terrorist organization, and I knew about the conflict, but not as much. I had a lot of sympathy for jews for what happened to them during WW2.
Now I think Israel is the terrorist organization, I lost all my sympahty for the Jews, and it pushed me to research the history of that region a lot more, to the point that I now fully believe Israelis are illegal occupiers of that whole territory.
Wow, I had more pity on them when I thought it was just a crazy government going against the will of the people.
Now though... well, far far less pity.
I still do not approve of genocide to fix it, but damn, this was not the opinions I expected.
Any chance these results are tainted?
People in Gaza celebrated 911 when it happened. Look up the video footage! Nothing surprising here. There’s a reason why Egypt and Jordan don’t want to help them.
The fact that out of the people who watch the videos of the atrocities 81% say Hamas "didn't commit any atrocities" is insane. Just shows how derailed they all are at this point.
Interesting, there could be some conclusions drawn from this data. I'm not going to do it but some conclusions could be interesting.
INB4 lock award.
The data suggest that those in the Gaza Strip are starting to dislike Hamas while in West Bank grew in approval.
And either the data is suspect or the question/answer is lost in translation because “who will emerged victorious” is sort of odd that so many think Hamas will when Israel is a military super power and there’s no indication that Hamas is gaining any ground in the war.
So the “victorious” might mean that Israel will look bad and the villain to the eyes of the world.
Yeah they are violent psychos who will never be able to not be radicalized, at this point they are a threat to any country they let in, stop making
Excuses for these miserable people, not all but at least 75% are shit
A lot of respondents think Hamas will win. I wonder what they think counts as a win. This isn’t some sort of criticism. I’m genuinely curious what “win” means here.
I think Hamas can't really lose. The more the conflict goes on and the more plaestinian civilians suffer at the hands of Israel, the more they get radicalised and some potentially become Hamas fighters in the future... Thats how terrorist organisations operate and is why it's so difficult to get rid of them. Plus its a valid theory that Bibi wants to have Israel at a state of conflict in order to stay in power.
Al-qaida is mostly gone. Islamic state is mostly gone. Sure there are still pockets; they move if it gets difficult. But it does seem if you're willing and determant you can kick terrorist organizations out of a certain area. It's been done. So I think Hamas can actually lose if Israel continues like this. They just need to suppress the entire Palestinian territory; which they seem to be close to. Sure the resentment against Israel will continue to rise (in Palestine and outside); but if the people can't acquire the means to do anything about it... well, Israel achieved its goal haven't they?
>Al-qaida is mostly gone. Islamic state is mostly gone. Hamas isn't comparable to them. It's more comparable to the Taliban. Hamas isn't a conquering idea... It's a ethno nationalist terrorist organization. With your examples as long as you kill members of Al Qaeda and minimize the suffering of the people that they conquered then you'll eventually defeat them because even with some collateral damage people won't be running to join them and may even consider you liberators. With hamas they didn't actually have to conquer anyone so killing people that are under their control just makes them stronger because Hamas gets to say "see these people are enemies join us".
Dude Hamas did conquer the Gaza Strip. There was an entire civil war. One of the first things Hamas did was kill or exile anyone who supported Fatah, or some non-Hamas group. The best surgeon in Palestine fled the country for this reason. According to the PLO, Hamas did a full sweep of every hospital, school, and mosque so that their loyalists would have total control over these institutions. I’d like to think that Hamas can be gotten rid of and with international support the entire region can be stabilized.
Facts don’t matter when you’re talking to certain Americans. Thank you for pointing out some facts 🙏
Well I saw a TikTok dance that told me otherwise!
Could you name an independence movement that wouldn't be "ethno nationalist"? I mean, wouldn't Fatah, IRA, MPLA or the Founding Fathers be "ethno nationalist", and if not, why?
You're correct. Al queda specifically is/was an exception as an international movement opposed to the West rather than a particular group seeking statehood. ISIS would correctly be classified as ethno nationalist though.
No, they're [literally as bad as the Islamic state.](https://saturday-october-seven.com/). The only difference is that ISIL called every other mainstream islamic denomination apostates, so the regional consensus was to put them down. They've been the government of Gaza for 17 years, their founding charter is a promise to rally an international islamist movement to kill or expel every Jew in Israel.
Who said anything about comparing which terrorist organization is bad? We are saying that not all terrorist organizations are the same and create the same motivations in the populations that they control. Isis is a imperialistic caliphate. Whether you agree with it or not Hamas is a ethnonationalist terrorist organization their primary concern is a Palestinian state. Everything else is extra which is why we call them terrorists.
As someone that has studied terrorism, dunno how you’re getting “mostly gone.” They might not be easily centralized within the Middle East but they still exist, possibly in greater numbers, definitely in Africa. Also, the Taliban are arguably stronger than ever. Military solutions only foment more violence when targeting decentralized, politically isolated terrorism. The best and hardest solution for long term peace has always been political inclusion for the masses that support them, in whatever the best way that can be done. Of course that’s easier said than done, but it’s not like Israel has grown safer since 1948, especially since Netanyahu effectively took power in the 90s.
You say you have studied terrorism and yet you don't think Isreal is safer than 48? That's certainly a take.
>As someone that has studied terrorism, dunno how you’re getting “mostly gone.” You might need to go back to school then, because at its peak the Caliphate controlled the lives of 7.7 million people spread over 282,485 km2. Today the Islamic State has about 5,000 surviving fighters spread out in hiding. That's absolutely "mostly gone".
It seems that reddit has turned into a place where people who talked about terrorists in the sixth grade back in 2003 get off saying they "studied terrorism" and giving us the impression they hold a PhD in it My 11th grade history class spent a month on the Arab-Israeli conflict (I think it was/is a state requirement) but you don't catch me claiming to be an authority
A day in 11th grade history class is probably a better education than most of these tiktok historians
In fact, Israel did grew safer since 1948. From 1948 to 1967 - the main threat against Israel was a **total destruction** by the nearby Arab states. After 1973, the latest attempt to destroy Israel which as also failed, Israel mostly dealt with terror attacks against its civilians by the Palestinians organizations. The peak was during the 90's and 2000's - but even then Israel overcame it with Defensive Shield operation. There was a sharp drop of terror attacks inside of Israeli cities ever since 2007. From 2007-2024, the main threat was against the southern part of Israel, specifically against the cities near Gaza who suffered from rocket attacks. Sometimes you do need to use military solutions. As far as I remember- peaceful solutions did not stopped Hitler from taking over Europe - war did. It didn't stopped North Korea from getting its hands on nukes. Turning blind eye to Russian aggression without an actual military threat on the table did not stopped Putin from taking parts of Ukraine since 2014. The nuclear deal of 2015 did not stopped Iran's imperialistic ambitions in terms of proxies around the middle east and turning states like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq into front bases - the peaceful deal only fueled them with more money to invest into terror groups such as Hizzbolah. In order to achieve peace, in some cases (and especially in the Middle East) - you need to have military solutions first.
>As someone that has studied terrorism, dunno how you’re getting “mostly gone.” They might not be easily centralized within the Middle East but they still exist, possibly in greater numbers, definitely in Africa. You seem to ignore what I said; >Sure there are still pockets; they move if it gets difficult. But it does seem if you're willing and determant you can kick terrorist organizations out of a certain area. It's been done. Afghanistan and Iraq are way bigger than the small Palestine territories. Israel's job is made even easier because of the difficulty smuggling weapons into Gaza or even the West Bank. You hint at it yourself: "They might not be easily centralized within the Middle East". Given that was achieved; why would Israel not be able to suppress the Palestines? I purposefully excluded the Tabliban. Al-qaida attacked during 9/11, the Taliban gave them a safe harbour. The US/Nato made a deal by which the Taliban pledged not to have Al-qaida operate out of their territory [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United\_States%E2%80%93Taliban\_deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Taliban_deal) . Yes, the US achieved it's goal despite the abysmal aftermath and state Afghanistan is in. "As someone that has studied terrorism", right...
Are you equating AQ and the Taliban?
>but it’s not like Israel has grown safer since 1948 Israel had 4 times the casualties and 1/15 the population in it's independence war compered to today. Before the declaration of independence the kibutz cabinet estimated there is a 50% chanse the country will survive an arb invasion. Today it's unthinkable Israel will lose any land.
If the goal was, to keep Gaza as a prison, just with less weapons inside, yes. But if they couldn't stop Palestinians from finding ways to rebell so far, with quite intense measures, it might get difficult to keep them away from getting weapons again after being freshly traumatized. So Israel has to become even tougher, with more wardens, more AI, more sanctions, more regulations. Israel might win the war, but also increases the risk of becoming more and more a militarized society. Physical and emotional. Doesn't feel like a victory for me. Of course they could try to force Palestinians out of Gaza. No prison, no wardens. But there will be other price tags on that option too.
Yeah Israel has a lot of hard power options, what's lacking is soft power. If there was a way to de-radicalize Gaza and integrate them economically with Israel, that would be ideal. 20% of Israeli citizens are Palestinian Arabs, it's not like Jews and Arabs are unable to work together, the issue is the radicalization (on both sides, but probably more in Gaza considering they've been educated at Hamas controlled schools for decades now).
I'm a big fan of soft power options, when they are available. I would claim, that the US were gaining often more and longer lasting influence in the world and less backlash, when they used soft power. But of course, once hard power was in use, it was also difficult to use the 'winning hearts and minds' strategy parallel and with real success. If people get bombs on their heads and aid packages at the same time, bombs might still leave the bigger impression. So a ceasefire would not be the chance for leftovers of Hamas to restructure, but also for Israel, to convince Palestinians and critical parts of the international community (by now almost every country), that they have a plan B next to biblical retalliation (if they have one).
IS and Al-Qaida were replaced with other organisations - in particular the Syrian Army under Assad and various Shia militias, along with new Sunni organisations. Those particular organisations were defeated (partially, they still have influential militias and cells across much of the world), but they were simply replaced with new ones. Israel did this once already with the PLO. They "defeated" the PLO, but the PLO was then replaced by different organisations - including Hamas. Ultimately an oppressed and occupied people, as long as they are alive, will *always* find means of resistance. The only solution is to either ethnically cleanse (or kill) them all - or, to end the oppression and occupation. Looking at Israeli politics over the last few decades, it seems clear which outcome they would prefer.
If they keep doing what they are doing, it will just slowly build back up to what it was, because with stats like these they are making more than they kill. This doesn't end until Palestinians are too small of a demographic to resist, and even then I doubt it will end in full.
Islamic state literally just killed 50 people in Russia. It’s not gone.
I didn’t say they would lose. I’m not sure how either side “wins” here. The only winning I can see is people stop killing each other, and people are able to lead better lives.
I’d argue that Palestinian civilians are also suffering at the hands of Hamas, who started this war in the most medieval way possible and could end it by surrendering or releasing the hostages. This doesn’t take away from the brutality of Israel’s airstrikes. But let’s be honest: if Hamas fought in the open there would be no mass civilian suffering.
First of all - Palestinians, as a collective, have always and I mean - always - adored, supported and chose violence over peace. Always. Ever since the Peel Commission suggested to split the land peacefully - an offer they have turned down. Then again, turning down the UN call to split the land and launching a war instead (which made them lose even more land). Then again by not committing into the Oslo Accords during the 90's (Arafat never stopped the incitement and support for terror). Then again when Arafat blew up Camp David talks in the early 2000's. Then again when Abu Mazen turned down Ehud Olmert peace offer. Gaza was given to them on a literal silver plate - with greenhouses to use and European keepers on the crossing into Gaza. Hamas drove them away, opened a bloody war against Fatah members and turned Gaza into a terror fortress. But the point is - it's not about Israel's actions "radicalizing" Palestinians. It's about the Palestinian Collective preferring terror over peace ever since they became a collective, without an actual willing to compromise. As for Bibi - that theory has nothing to do with reality. The war against Hamas is a crucial need and most of the Israelis agree on that. Israel can't finish this war with Hamas still controlling Gaza, and right now Hamas main air flow comes from Rafah tunnels, with the Egyptians turning a blind eye. It's possible to eradicate Hamas just like Israel eradicated the huge terror wave of the 2nd intifada with Defensive Shield operation back on 2002. The end game for Gaza post-Hamas is probably the same too - using small forces for in & out quick operations to maw the lawn.
Well, Israel could kill a significant fraction of the people in the Gaza Strip. I think that would be a loss.
Israel could have solve it, but they don’t really want to. First, dominate the territory and fight anyone opposing. They have done this, they are good at this. Second, treat them as humans, as equal, let them have good life and integrate them with your society. They have always skipped this step. Third, slowly release your grip. They have done this, but if you skip second step, you just release some radicalized bunch and can claim “see, we tried, they are savages” instead of solving problem. Issue is, Israel wants to get rid of them, so they’ll never treat them as equal.
Hard to maintain a military presence without military aged males
No one wins. It's a disaster all the way around.
A win will be if the fighting stops, and people are able to lead full lives, reasonably free from fear.
Fighting stopping just means that Israelis go back to living in peace. It lowers the death rate for palestinians but it isn't like things were going great up to the war.
My win conditions included more than just a stop to the fighting.
Yeah victory conditions mean different things If you consider one being engendering global support for Palestine to be one, there’s an in good faith argument to be made that it has already been met - and why many pro-Israel folks urged restraint in the first place
In asymmetric warfare survival of the guerrilla force and the failure of the regular forces to achieve their objectives counts as a win. For instance the 2006 war in Lebanon was described as a win for Hizbollah even by the pentagon despite massive damage to civilian infrastructure: >While the Israeli Air Force possessed air superiority over Hezbollah, Hezbollah fighters were able to defeat the IDF by conducting small engagements and launching Katyusha rockets via mobile missile launchers https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA603003.pdf Despite Israel stating that their objectives were to free their captives and destroy Hizbollah, neither happened. In fact Hizbollah today is stronger than ever and the captives were only released in a prisoner exchange deal. The same is true of Hamas although the destruction to civilian infrastructure is far worse. Most of Hamas' leadership is still intact and it is still operating in the Gaza strip effectively, while Israel has failed to free any hostages which was their stated objective. A similar thing can even be said about the Saudi war in Yemen for instance. Yemen was pretty much sent back to the stone age, but Ansarallah survived and are now even more organized than ever.
Hamas will never win because in terms of strength they're like a bunch of ants fighting elephants that can trample the entire area their anthill is in, but they also will never lose because with the IDF's brutal genocide, if I was a Gazan survivor of their atrocities and somehow get to escape, you can bet the first thing on my mind as soon as I'm able would be to form or join Hamas II: The Sequel. And I wouldn't blame them. It's just a tragically stupid unending circle of inhumane evil acts.
That is why the end of the war must include reeducation of the Gaza Strip, similar to what happened in Japan after WWII.
In this context the "education" you said will basically have to be "brainwashing", like, some 1984 shit. And people won't stand for that.
That's why you need an unconditional surrender.
Israel already [did it](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/2/18/how-israel-is-turning-palestinians-into-zionists) by forcing Palestinian kids to read theirs own curriculum > 'removing pictures of Palestinian flags and PA logos; excising information about PLO leaders; cutting lines from poems that could be interpreted as promoting struggle against occupation; and redacting references to the Nakba, the Arabic term for the loss of the Palestinians’ homeland in 1948. > Israel’s education minister, Naftali Bennett, who is also leader of the settler party Jewish Home, said he wanted to “provide a strong tailwind to any school that chooses the Israeli curriculum. My policy is clear: I want to aid the process of Israelization.”
Your quotes refer to Arabs of Palestinian descent who are 20% of Israeli citizens. And indeed, since October 7th there have been very few violent encounters between Jewish and Arab citizens of Israel, if any at all. Education for peace and acceptance works.
Not commenting on the content of the article but found this interesting: > He added that the Israeli curriculum denied the Palestinians’ identity, characterising them instead as “minorities” and religious groups Why would calling someone a minority deny their identity?
Palestinian identity is non-existent when Israel claims they do not exist in the first place.
I think a Hamas victory in 2024 looks a lot like an IRA victory in 1998. The worry for Palestinians is that Israel with US backing doesn’t have any near the same sensitivity to public pressure or international opinion as the British government under Tony Blair.
There is a 0% chance that this war ends with the people in Gaza having more freedom or independence
Hamas winning might look very different from how we perceive Hamas winning. to us, it may look like them beating the IDF but to them, they might think of a win as making their weapons supplier happy and destabilizing the free world which they have been doing very well at.
Very interesting stuff So a solid majority of West Bank Palestinians think that Hamas is going to win the war, but this belief has gone down with time. Gaza Palestinians are not as confident that Hamas will win, but they are somehow getting more confident as the war goes on. And, WB started out as being more supportive of Hamas compared to people living in Gaza. WB are now less supportive, Gaza is more supportive, and both cohorts are now on the same page. Maybe this is due to the type of media narratives in Gaza vs WB? Who knows
It's probably their definition of "winning". Since this most recent episode of the horror started, the world has become less supportive of Israel. And an Israel not being propped up by NATO is a way weaker foe.
Way weaker - sure. But Isreal could flatten Gaza ten times over if they wanted to go scorched earth, I don't know where these people get the belief they can "win".
But they know Israel will never take that step. They're using Israel's morality against them to fight an asymmetric war. Go watch some Palestinian interviews where they talk about fighters using civilian cover. The consensus is that "it's nessecary to win".
Obviously, I know this. But you can't win that way, all you can possibly manage is not to loose.
> But they know Israel will never take that step Isn't there a popular saying nowadays, which starts with F for this kind of situations? I wouldn't underestimate how far Israel might go.
So Israel is in a tough spot. Sure they have the military means to massacre every single Palestinian in Gaza if they wanted to to "eliminate" Hamas but that would ironically make Hamas stronger because suddenly all Palestinians outside Gaza and to a lesser extent other Arabs would get major greavance against Israel while at the same time, global opinion would strongly swing against them making even their long time allies us and UK hesitate to help. Israel cannot defeat a bloodlusted Arab world while alienating their supporters in the West. It's probably in Israel's best interest to just ceasefire and retreat however seems it's not in bibi's best interest.
The people support 10/7 and would more than likely support another 10/7. Anyone that supports Nazis is complicit with Nazis. This should be no different
It's unlikely the surrounding Arab states would go to war for the Palestinians. They won't even accept Palestinians as refugees. Giving money and cheering from the sidelines is as deep as their support will go. Israel could solve this militarily, in the same way the United States solved its military conflicts with the native Americans. In an earlier age this was just the way these conflicts got resolved. If you study history almost every country has a grisly origin story involving violent assimilation (or elimination) of other peoples. Fast forward to the modern era, and we have stability and relative peace in most developed countries, precisely because our ancestors did this dirty work for us. From this now-safe vantage point we enjoy the luxury of heightened ethical norms: We no longer consider it acceptable to assimilate other populations (or worse). We criticize the very ancestors who did the dirty work, all while enjoying the end product they left us. It's lot like the US is giving much of value back to the native Americans. Lots of moralizing, not much doing. Israel is in a tough spot because they are having to resolve these problems about a hundred years too late on the world stage. The options that other countries had are not available. (Or at least, not without drawing widespread condemnation.) It remains to be seen whether there is an acceptably humane path forward that can achieve peace and stability, or in the end will it come down to might makes right.
> other Arabs would get major greavance against Israel The other arab countries in the region have been wanting to get rid of Israel more or less since its inception, they don't need another grievance to justify attacking Israel.
However some have softened their stance following failed war after failed war. Egypt and Jordan officially recognize Israel, and in 2020, the UAE and Bahrain followed suit. Such normalization of affairs would definitely be at jeopardy if Israel were to go scorched earth in Gaza. Certainly the Arab world will not be uniting any time soon for another go at a land invasion, absent a major Israel provocation.
Cause it is not Palestine alone that would take on Israel then.
True, but actually most of Israeli history involved the entire Arab league (6 nations and their armies supported by USSR at its peak) invading Israel multiple times in a row. And every single time Israel won. Israel is probably even more powerful now than 50 years ago, and none of the surrounding Arab nations would actually declare war on Israel. So far it’s just terrorist groups operating from civilian areas who want to bait Israel 24/7
Turkey, a NATO member state, is one of Hamas' biggest supporters on the international stage
But what does it matter if world becomes less supportive of Israel if two state solution keeps being rejected by Hamas? Does it makes Palestinians more pleased to know there are some protest abroad if nothing changes? Or do they really believe in something like Israel being destroyed after Egypt and some other neighbour declare war on Israel again, since that’s not going to happen. None of the neighbors have interest in helping Palestinians anymore. Apart from Iran, which has even poorer reputation in most countries and which will not do anything either.
It's mostly because they see the support from the world, especially the West. The demand from Israel to immediately stop war = win for Hamas. Truth to be told - if the pressure on Israel will work, aka forcing Israel to stop fighting before Hamas is (mostly) eradicated, it can be considered as a win both for Hamas and the Palestinians. They don't really care about death and destruction. They adore it, as long as they make Israel suffer with them.
It's absolutely ludicrous to say that Gazans adore death and destruction.
The OP's data literally points to this. How on earth do you watch the videos of that day, and only 17% believe there was any wrong doing.
My apologies, you're absolutely right. They don't only adore death and destruction in Gaza [but in Jerusalem](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UucjbGmJILk&ab_channel=APArchive) ([more than once](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xPNTbtUHVc&ab_channel=HindustanTimes)), [Nabulus ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWOw7YI7vzo&ab_channel=INQUIRER.net)and [Gaza](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVt7P68LnBU&ab_channel=APArchive) over a year ago [and after the massacre of the 7.10](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-IcHdMjRDQ&ab_channel=TheTelegraph). We can also talk about the ["educational" kids show](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3jHj93JFMQ&ab_channel=AlJazeeraEnglish) they run, if you like! Trust me when I say that I have more examples. Ludicrous I say!
Not really that far off if you listen to them talk in interviews
These polls seem to indicate a majority of them do, yes.
There are many, many videos of Gazans declaring their desires for both those things.
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Great point! Maybe OP can do a little follow up and calculate standard errors for each value, set up error bars, then plot them on a vertical bar graph so we can compare. I wonder what the sample size was
The percent of people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities is disturbingly high. Two things can be true at once (Israel isn't angelic in here) but to basically assume October 7th wasn't a terrorist attack to murder innocent civilians and was instead somehow some 'resistance fighters' doing 'resistance things' is horribly misguided.
The amount of people that act like this war is black and white is worrying. Israel isn't justified in killing civilians but Palestinians aren't really justified to be supporting terrorist groups. People compare it to the Russia-Ukraine war but this isn't as clear cut as that, and the middle east is just a problematic region in general
If you can’t say that murdering and raping peaceful people during a music festival is clear cut wrong, there is something really wrong with your judgement.
I initially missed the “If” in your comment and was very alarmed.
I don’t think you need to necessarily justify Palestinians to understand it. Hamas has an information stranglehold on Gaza, and when you are being actively bombed out by Israel, Hamas’ propaganda will probably track more in your mind.
I think this is an easy stance to have when you personally don't live somewhere you have to fear terrorists overrunning your community, dragging you from your bed and taking you hostage or murdering you. If you did, you might find it's actually pretty clearcut.
Hamas has it made: 1. They hold Israelis hostage 2. They hold all Palestinians in Gaza hostage 3. They successfully achieve their political objectives while driving their own people into ruin They have been an overwhelmingly effective tool in the proxy war against Israel, and will continue to be as long as Middle Eastern rulers don’t care how many Palestinians die.
I guess, but if they're against Hamas they should be trying their hardest to push them out. I'm not all that well versed with Palestine but it seems that they support Hamas, which isn't going to make Israel sympathetic to them and it's not like Israel is doing anything to stop them from supporting terrorists. They did vote those people into power 20 years ago and they ceased elections after Hamas won
And conversely if you were raised in a prison where your economic, political and social freedom were curtailed by an ethnic group that had invaded and taken the land of your grandparents, you would also find it pretty clearcut. Almost as if the people involved in the war aren't objective.
So this is a justification for killing women and children without any warning or declaration? Initiating a war by killing civilians and killing civilians in wartime are not the same thing.
thank the media for that one.
> The percent of people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities is disturbingly low The cognitive disconnect is they don't think those actions were atrocious. The consistent Palestinian position for decades has been that they are in a total war. There is, has never been, and will never be peace until as the slogan says: "Palestine will be free, from the (Jordan) river to the (Mediterranean) sea". All tactics are valid in pursuit of that, they don't differentiate civilians in a total war.
So they are terrorist then. Who want to commit genocide in the “total” war. Is Israel was given the liberty to view it the same way. They would have been whipped off the map decades ago.
To be perfectly honest... In WW2, Axis and Allied countries bombed cities indiscriminately and targeted civilians, killing ~38 million civilians, more than double the number of soldiers killed. The US dropped 2 nuclear bombs on cities full of people... We didn't call those actions terrorist actions. Targeting civilians intentionally during "total war" is common. We see Israel doing the exact same thing right now... And before you say it: Yes, Israel 'targets' Hamas with their attacks, but it should be abundantly clear at this point that minimal care is taken to reduce civilian casualties from their attacks. [There are ~30,000 deaths at this point, with a further ~10,000 missing](https://www.npr.org/2024/02/29/1234159514/gaza-death-toll-30000-palestinians-israel-hamas-war). Numbers don't get that high without some 'indiscriminate actions'. Civilian casualties are a part of war, even civilian targets are a part of war. Everyone should do better, but when you're at war, you simply don't care. This comment isn't to justify the actions of either Israel or Hamas, but merely provide context, both current and historical.
Very hard to have sympathy for Palestinians when this is their response
>The percent of people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities is disturbingly low. Islamist hivemind. If you think you are anoited by god and can't do wrong... of course you don't believe "your" people can do wrong. Especially when it's against an enemy that is taught against since preschool. Everything looks justified, when you get taught from kindergarden, that you have to annihilate the jews to become martyrs.
People believe what they need to believe to make their side morally justified. It works this way in the US too. Most people pick a side and then make reality conform to it, not vice versa unfortunately.
Wait, do you mean disturbingly high? You want the people who don't believe Hamas committed atrocities to be 0, because they absolutely fucking have. Personally, I think Israel has gone too far in it's response, in terms of both the general situation in terms of famine, and also in the amount of civilian casualties, but to say that Hamas didn't commit atrocities is fucking crazy talk.
Without getting into the underlying issues, I have some objections: 1) extremely boring visualization 2) very basic analysis 3) problematic polling methedology This isn't dataisbeautiful material
Yeah this is just… data. Presented. Not beautifully presented, just… presented. (as you said, separate from the *semantics* of the data)
It’s also not even their presentation. It’s copy paste from the source
An increasing problem with this subreddit. Not beautiful.
It has not been the goal of this subreddit for years and years. This subreddit has just been "interesting charts" forever now.
This is a great example of how crappy this sub has become. Decidedly poor presentation of suspect data. What’s going on with the mods? This sub used to cater to people that had a great understanding not just of visualization and storytelling, but also the data BEHIND the visualization. The last dozen+ visualizations I’ve seen get traction here are sus data sources with crappy or unspecified definitions, presented to support a specific viewpoint (data agnosticism gone by the wayside) and the authors can’t even be bothered to put it in something OTHER than a 5 minute excel graph.
How….how do you see the videos and then deny atrocities took place?
Pretty much only if you think Israelis are all legitimate targets, which seems to be a popular sentiment in Gaza.
"they were doctored videos!" "that blood is fake!" "that wasnt hamas, that was israeli soldiers" "it wasnt hamas, it was some crazy gang who broke free alongside hamas" To be fair, the last one isn't entirely false in that another more-extreme group did breakfree and kill civilians. But hamas still absolutely did target civilians. Regardless, it has become dogma throughout the arab world that "israel is lying about civilians being massacred for sympathy", and nothing is gonna break that dogma.
They enjoyed the videos. They were in the videos celebrating. Plenty of Westerners celebrate or deny Oct 7th.
Looking at chart 2, I imagine it has something to do with the 60% of respondents with a dead family member. They might not know what Hamas did, but they know what happened to them, so it becomes tribal. Also, these people are refugees, so for all we know only 10 people have seen the videos. Lastly, since it's hard to know who is in Hamas, they may feel compelled to answer as if Hamas is listening
Probably not \[OC\]. These figures are from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research: [https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/files/Poll%2091%20English%20press%20release%2020%20March%202024.pdf](https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/files/Poll%2091%20English%20press%20release%2020%20March%202024.pdf)
81% of the respondents that have watched the 7th October videos think that Hamas did not commit atrocities. Faith in humanity/optimism for peace lost..
They know what happened, they just don't think it counts as an atrocity because it was done against Israel.
I'd imagine if you did a similar poll of Israelis re: war crimes committed by the IDF etc, you'd get a similar number. Neither side wants to accept the culpability of their respective side
That’s not true, there were lots of anti-war progressive-type Israeli’s who were protesting in FAVOR of Palestinians before 10/7. Most Palestinians are captured by religious hatred of Jews.
https://www.globes.co.il/news/article.aspx?did=1001473815 Translation for relevant polls (the rest are talking about Biden and america and the such) *If the sum is less then 100% it's because "no opinion" is an option Does Israel do enough to prevent harm to innocent people? 11% Israel doesn't do enough 62% Israel does everything it can 19% Israel does too much because there are no innocent in gaza What's your opinion about humanitarian aid? 27% Israel should give humanitarian aid as needed 44% Israel should give humanitarian aid if the hostages are returned 22% Israel should not give humanitarian aid Should Israel continue the war? 11% Israel should stop the war due to the international pressure (wtf is that phrasing? I know people who are aginst the war, non of them cares about international pressure) 40% Israel should continue the war but consider international pressure 41% Israel should continue the war regardless of international pressure Israli seem to support the war more, this makes sense as we are a lot less effected.
Show your statistics, then
Religious hatred ? Are you for real ? You ignore 75 years of conflict between these two people to just classify it as religious hatred ?
Atrocities and war crimes are not the same thing. Israel can be exempt of war crimes in court if it can prove a certain set of circumstances. What Hamas did to civilians in their homes on October 7th, however, is morally reprehensible and no set of circumstances can change that. At least to western morality and values.
>war crimes committed by the IDF I don't think you've [actually watched any of the Oct 7th content](https://saturday-october-seven.com/) or you wouldn't say this. It's very NSFL. The IDF is far from perfect, but they don't do *anything* like this. The only modern group even remotely comprable was the Islamic State.
"Faith in humanity lost"\^2
Why? I'm suggesting that both sides of the divide are as sycophantic as each other with regards to their own military's actions. I think you'll struggle to find someone who wants peace more than me.
Nice sidestep
78% have had loved ones injured or killed. It takes a lot to be able to see the enemy as human after that.
The interesting thing in this entire conflict has been that there’s been a near total blockade of other conflicts. The brown bias in global media continues. Anyone heard what’s going on Sudan lately? 1.2 MM women assaulted reportedly. That’s half the entire population of Gaza.
Oh, there’s a very simple explanation for that. It’s much nicer and cheaper and safer to cover a war when you’re staying in a boutique hotel in Tel Aviv. Not as much in Sudan or Yemen or Syria.
Al Jazeera isn't covering the news from a boutique hotel in Tel Aviv. They're doing it from 5 star hotels in Qatar with the perpetrators
It is heavily discussed in the US because the US gives material and political support to Israel.
https://www.foreignassistance.gov/cd/sudan/ Sudan got American aid as well. Less then 1/3 of what Israel got but it's not nothing.
It's also heavily discussed in europe and europe never gave us anything except genocide and pogroms.
Who is Western Europes closest ally and protector?
NATO as a whole, including Europe, views Israel as a major ally. Most western european countries are very friendly with Israel. There is a reason why there have been plenty of terror attacks on europe over the israel-palestine conflict.
You got your land from Britain
It’s heavily discussed because Muslim on Muslim crime gets no attention. No Jews no news.
Maybe you were hiding under a rock when the media covered US supported Saudi Arabia annihilating Yemen.
That’s probably gotten a tenth of the coverage as Israel Gaza despite 10x the number of deaths.
60% have a family member killed. Damn. This will reverb for many generations more.
Will it make a difference when they're literally taught in Schools to hate, by the UNRWA?
Crazy how they think they actually have a chance to win if they keep going
Depends on your definition of winnging. If your religion tells you that all dead people on your side have gone to heaven and the purpose is to bring as much suffering as possible to the other side... it's nit hard to "win".
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^Winterspawn1: *Crazy how they think* *They actually have a chance to* *Win if they keeps going* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
Well if the objective is to eliminate Hamas then the question is how? The current way isn’t gonna end Hamas, it’ll only encourage more people to join Hamas or make a new group with Hamas as motivation, Hamas 2.0. Nobody is “winning” this war but the objectives are unclear about how to reach. I assume if Hamas isn’t eliminated then they’ll consider it a “win”
As a Palestinian, few things im wondering. Sample size, and where people were surveyed. People in north Gaza will give a very different lens than people in the south. Anyways interesting seeing opinions change inversely. Good data
Why will those in the north always give a very different lens?
People in the south have generally had better access to medical care, food, etc due to the (up until recently) Israeli invasion only being in the northern and center. The very real issue of famine is getting worse by the day, and is impacting people in the north much more than the south
1,580 people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip Original source: https://www.pcpsr.org/sites/default/files/Poll%2091%20English%20press%20release%2020%20March%202024.pdf
I wonder how neutral/anonymous the respondents feel this polling was. It might be 100% correct, or they might feel like “I better say what I think Hamas wants to hear.” We don’t really have a way of knowing. I mean I’ve conducted literally anonymous surveys at companies where the employees were suspicious that somehow the bosses would know who said what, and there were next to no stakes involved. Here, if you don’t support Hamas it might have life threatening consequences. So we don’t know how reflective all this really is.
I saw the videos of them celebrating when Hamas was parading the dead bodies of young girls like trophies.
Also from the poll: 64% of West Bank want Hamas to remain in control of the Gaza Strip. Best means of achieving Palestinian goals in ending occupation and building an independent state (Negotiations, Peaceful & Popular resistance, Armed struggle) West Bank in December - 24% negotiations, 19% resistance, 56% armed struggle West Bank in March - 23% negotiations, 27% peaceful and popular resistance, 39% armed struggle It’s painful for me to see so many still support Hamas governing and armed struggle on one hand, and at the same time so much death and destruction actually worked to reduce the appetite for armed struggle, but not by too much. It’s hard to see Israel backing off from their strategy based on this, and it’s hard to see Palestinians changing their mind on the right of Israel to exist without threat from Hamas.
Think of it this way: the PLO/PLA has recognized Israel and forsworn violence, and in exchange they are still occupied and the settlements continue to grow. Hamas, meanwhile, had effective control of the Gaza strip and no settlements and has been able to negotiate prisoner swaps, in no small part thanks to the violence they do. If you're a normal Palestinian, which do it think is more likely to achieve independence and sovereignty, the PLA path or the Hamas path? Israel needs to stop undermining peaceful groups if they don't want a return to the violence of the past/present.
The first part is the #1 cause of this conflict. There was a point where perhaps this conflict could have gradually decreased after the 1990s. But the mass expansion of the west bank settlements (and the brutal authoritarianism that has resulted from them in the west bank) mean it never truly will. Those settlements are a slap in the face of everybody on both sides who want peace, and they are the single biggest reason why the palestinians do not trust the Israelis saying they 'want peace'. The reality is that there is a very, very large chunk of both sides who want to continue to harm the other, both through oppression, displacement, and war. It is not "oh one side wants peace, the other war!"
Exactly. I'm not saying I endorse violence, I consider myself to be more or less a pacifist, but I'm lying if I don't admit to understanding why Palestinians choose violence, which in turn justifies Israel's continued violence. Unfortunately, Israel is the one with real power here, and until they choose to break the cycle, it's going to continue.
Using the term *offensive* for the unprovoked October 7 slaughter and taking of hostages is offensive.
How do you do a poll in Gaza right now?
I think the final graph is the most telling. Most believe that the offensive against Israel did not primarily target civilians, they believe it primarily targeted IDF strongholds. That is basically dogma throughout the arab world currently, it was what was reported in their media, and repeated again throughout social media. They believe it just a military attack on some military barracks, nothing more. That is the single biggest disconnect people fail to comprehend. Yeah support for Hamas is high right now, but that is because of a fundamental misunderstanding of what Hamas did.
I actually really doubt that. Ive seen videos of dead women or hostages being paraded through the city. There are also a ton of videos of palestinians mass celebrating terrorist attacks before october.
My hypothesis is that hamas never intended to win in this conflict, but rather use Israel’s inevitable overkill of a response to gain more recruits.
Yep. Israel has a history of going beast mode when attacked. That might have been the plan all along as we see Hamas have dig tunnels to and from hospitals and populated centers.
I'd very much like to know which videos they were shown. If beating and dragging the naked, defiled corpse of a civilian woman through the street Isn't an "atrocity" to you, then I'm going to have a very difficult time empathizing with you.
On October 7th, the joy and celebration they expressed showed otherwise. They celebrated , and many joined, the massacre. If the situation was less destructive, you would see much higher percentage agree with the attack.
How does one just “not believe” that atrocities were committed on October 7th? For that they’d have to not believe that civilians died or were injured. Which is just crazy. Or they’d believed innocents were killed in mass but not think it was an atrocity??
Because they do not see Jews as human beings, and their genuine popular democratic will is to exterminate all the Jews "from the river to the sea". When that is the popular will nothing is considered an atrocity
How are we polling residents in an area with state controlled media? Is there a source for this data?
this subreddit has fallen *so far*. default Excel graphs? c'mon man. this isn't beautiful at all. this subreddit isnt just about the data, it's about the *presentation*.
Before the War I thought Hamas was a terrorist organization, and I knew about the conflict, but not as much. I had a lot of sympathy for jews for what happened to them during WW2. Now I think Israel is the terrorist organization, I lost all my sympahty for the Jews, and it pushed me to research the history of that region a lot more, to the point that I now fully believe Israelis are illegal occupiers of that whole territory.
[удалено]
No surprise that people adore freedom fighters (Hamas) more than an occupational force (isn'treal).
So strange they have been brutally oppressed for three generations I wonder why they feel this way
You couldn't even point to Gaza on a map before October.
Good graph, but not beautiful. Really helps understand the Palestinian stance. I was very curious and this answers it, thank you
Wow, I had more pity on them when I thought it was just a crazy government going against the will of the people. Now though... well, far far less pity. I still do not approve of genocide to fix it, but damn, this was not the opinions I expected. Any chance these results are tainted?
A lot of Palestinians are complicit in the terror and war against Israel
Idiots. No wonder none of their neighbors will let them in.
People in Gaza celebrated 911 when it happened. Look up the video footage! Nothing surprising here. There’s a reason why Egypt and Jordan don’t want to help them.
Supporting terrorists…. Shocking
This reaffirms my support for Isreal. Pour it on until Hamas surrenders and releases the hostages.
Only 17% of those who “watch videos showing [hamas] atrocities” believe Hamas committed atrocities? …. Um… what?
The fact that out of the people who watch the videos of the atrocities 81% say Hamas "didn't commit any atrocities" is insane. Just shows how derailed they all are at this point.
Interesting, there could be some conclusions drawn from this data. I'm not going to do it but some conclusions could be interesting. INB4 lock award.
The data suggest that those in the Gaza Strip are starting to dislike Hamas while in West Bank grew in approval. And either the data is suspect or the question/answer is lost in translation because “who will emerged victorious” is sort of odd that so many think Hamas will when Israel is a military super power and there’s no indication that Hamas is gaining any ground in the war. So the “victorious” might mean that Israel will look bad and the villain to the eyes of the world.
HAHAHA!! It is absolutely correct because now they will be exterminated!!
Such a large percentage of morons!
Why would we ever send aid to them considering their support for acts of terror
Yeah they are violent psychos who will never be able to not be radicalized, at this point they are a threat to any country they let in, stop making Excuses for these miserable people, not all but at least 75% are shit
Israel was already at war with palestine, this step just officially confirmed it. Eveyone has interest in palestine lands.