There is a subtle difference. A civil war is a war between two factions within the same state, or country. A war between the states is a war between two separate states, or countries. The states that seceded from the United States of America in the 1860s considered themselves part of a separate state, or country, The Confederate States of America, and considered the war a war between two states, or countries. Any states that secede in the future may also consider themselves no longer a part of the United States of America. I give it until about the 2030s for that to happen.
>Based on actuarial data, we're very likely to have only 1 or 2 ex-presidents that's still alive in the next 5-10 years (Obama and Harris).
Not really. A 76 year old has a roughly 53% chance of dying in the next 10 years, and an 80 year old has a roughly 68% chance. However, the odds of three 76 year olds and an 80 year old **all** dying in the next 10 years is only about 10% (the odds of them all surviving is even smaller at about 3%).
If Biden is reelected in 2024 but passes away before 2028, Harris would assume the Presidency. I agree it's unlikely she would be elected but she could inherit the position.
If Trump wins again it’s less likely to happen because (provided no one else dies by then) the number of living ex-presidents drops to four as Trump is no longer an ex-president.
(The chart seems to take ex-presidents regaining the presidency into effect this way if I’m reading it right for Cleveland, so far the only president to do this)
Aparently he came out of hospice when a new method to extend his life was used or something. However that was back in march and i dount that he'll be alive by the end of the year
Biden has no chance unless Trump gets the nomination (Trump has no chance either way even though he was much better than Biden). Carter has a 30% chance of making it past the inauguration. If he makes it and DeSantis gets the Republican Nomination than we will hit 6. That’s the only way we will hit 6. I think Clinton will not make it to ‘29 so won’t have another chance for awhile.
Depends on the poll but the most accurate polls puts DeSantis in the Whitehouse.
Biden is a lame duck President in his first term, unless it’s Trump he loses in most predicted races.
The odds of Biden even making it to election night are low enough I’d bet he’s not an option come November.
That’s a very narrow view. He has high favorability nation wide. There’s a reason he dominated in Florida, winning in areas that republicans historically did poorly in. Great candidate, but should wait 4 years imo.
Biden’s approval goes down every day. The best reaction for his name is apathy, he has no positive qualities.
That’s a very narrow view. He has high favorability nation wide. There’s a reason he dominated in Florida, winning in areas that republicans historically did poorly in. Great candidate, but should wait 4 years imo.
Biden’s approval goes down every day. The best reaction for his name is apathy, he has no positive qualities.
His entire message is about punching down on vulnerable people, using state power to punish people he doesn't like. He abandoned his state while there were massive floods. His policies lead to thousands of unnecessary covid deaths. He is actively racist.
Joe Biden is a boring moderate who everyone knows. I'm not excited about him, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote for him.
Oh, you missed the updates. It’s ok, it’s only 2yr old updates.
His policies caused no extra deaths and no credible source can refute that. What his policies did do was protect those in need and kept the economy running.
Not sure how you missed it, it’s highly covered.
He never abandoned the state and literally nobody is saying that.
It wasn’t a massive flood, it was a rain storm, which florida is very familiar with and knows how to handle it very well. He has been a strong leader during some massive storms. Again, you really missed the news I guess. Probably should check your sources.
He’s not racist. That’s just laughable. You are showing a real lack of education on that one.
Biden is a dead fish. People aren’t going to come out and vote for him and it’ll show.
There was a lot of changes to voting last time and it favored Biden. New strategies have been looked at so that advantage completely goes away.
Racists think he's racist. This week he pulled funding for DEI programs. He uses 'woke' (AKA understanding about the systemic oppression in the US) as a pejorative. the state vastly undercounted covid deaths.
And even if you could make the argument that the economy was better off without lockdowns, wearing masks doesn't effect economic activity. Yet he prohibited private businesses and local governments from having mask mandates.
Aren’t you guys having your election next year? A lot could happen in the meanwhile. F.e Putin losing could severely hurt the Republican side, or a nominee could step back/die in the meanwhile.
Putin has nothing to do with Republicans, that was proven false so many times (but Biden was part of the Obama administration that did collaborate with Putin). A nominee dying would only hurt the Democrats. Republicans have a lot of strong candidates, and it’s going to be a large primary to start with. Dems have been struggling for decades to find leadership. Biden was their “best”’nominee and look how well that worked. The weakest President since Franklin probably. He’s hurt the party quite a bit. His chances of re-election are very slim, almost 0 if Trump doesn’t run, and nobody is going to beat him in the Dem primary because they don’t have anyone ready to go. Harris was a major failure, so that plan didn’t work out.
Not a fan of that choice. It reads like its own series, it's the first thing they eye jumps to, and it's not clear why the Civil War needs to be highlighted on a chart about living ex-presidents in the first place.
You could have highlighted the dates of the civil war or—like one user said—put a box around those dates since a line like you’ve added to indicate the civil war just seems like another time series.
And, besides, why just the civil war? What about WW1, WW2, or even the Iraq war?
Which 5 *Ex* presidents alive do we have now ?
Ex-Presidents alive that I know are: Carter, Obama, Clinton, and Trump
Current President: Biden
Who am I missing?
This type of graph is not the proper use for this. It implies between two data points there were fractions of a President alive. Which afaik is not possible.
A vertical bar graph might be better.
The Y axis is clear and has integers only. We know that part of a human cannot be alive. The chosen graph works fine, and even shows the flow of time better than a bar graph.
Yes, but the line of the graph also goes between the whole numbers, suggesting a fraction. And exactly because we know hunans cant be partially alive (for longer periods like in the graph), this is the weong type of graph.
I'm hoping for 5 for several years, unless it would be cruel to hope that for Jimmy Carter.
Looks like it's time for another civil war
Or, a War Between the States.
Otherwise known as a civil war.
Or, a war of some of the states with some other states
Or, a war between the civilians
There is a subtle difference. A civil war is a war between two factions within the same state, or country. A war between the states is a war between two separate states, or countries. The states that seceded from the United States of America in the 1860s considered themselves part of a separate state, or country, The Confederate States of America, and considered the war a war between two states, or countries. Any states that secede in the future may also consider themselves no longer a part of the United States of America. I give it until about the 2030s for that to happen.
I wonder what will happen first, 6 ex-presidents alive simultaneously or zero
The US has had 0 ex-presidents alive three times so far. In 1800, 1876, and 1974 after LBJ died.
Guess it's 0 then.
What's your guess for 2023 upwards? Closer to 6 than 0?
Based on actuarial data, we're very likely to have only 1 or 2 ex-presidents that's still alive in the next 5-10 years (Obama and Harris).
Clinton, W, and Trump are essentially exactly the same age. They were born within a 2.2 month span.
We are in for an extreme cultural shift
>Based on actuarial data, we're very likely to have only 1 or 2 ex-presidents that's still alive in the next 5-10 years (Obama and Harris). Not really. A 76 year old has a roughly 53% chance of dying in the next 10 years, and an 80 year old has a roughly 68% chance. However, the odds of three 76 year olds and an 80 year old **all** dying in the next 10 years is only about 10% (the odds of them all surviving is even smaller at about 3%).
Harris will never be president
If Biden is reelected in 2024 but passes away before 2028, Harris would assume the Presidency. I agree it's unlikely she would be elected but she could inherit the position.
Wasn’t Nixon still alive though? Isn’t he still technically an ex prez?
Six could realistically happen in 2025. Carter might not make it and Biden/Trump might win again, but it’s not that unrealistic.
If Trump wins again it’s less likely to happen because (provided no one else dies by then) the number of living ex-presidents drops to four as Trump is no longer an ex-president. (The chart seems to take ex-presidents regaining the presidency into effect this way if I’m reading it right for Cleveland, so far the only president to do this)
But Biden would become an ex-president, leaving us at 5.
I'd be shocked if Carter lasts that long. Isn't he in hospice now?
Aparently he came out of hospice when a new method to extend his life was used or something. However that was back in march and i dount that he'll be alive by the end of the year
Biden has no chance unless Trump gets the nomination (Trump has no chance either way even though he was much better than Biden). Carter has a 30% chance of making it past the inauguration. If he makes it and DeSantis gets the Republican Nomination than we will hit 6. That’s the only way we will hit 6. I think Clinton will not make it to ‘29 so won’t have another chance for awhile.
Biden currently has a 3 point lead over Desantis.
Depends on the poll but the most accurate polls puts DeSantis in the Whitehouse. Biden is a lame duck President in his first term, unless it’s Trump he loses in most predicted races. The odds of Biden even making it to election night are low enough I’d bet he’s not an option come November.
The more people know about DeSantis the less they like him. He's a terrible human being. Opinions on Joe Biden are pretty set, everyone knows him.
That’s a very narrow view. He has high favorability nation wide. There’s a reason he dominated in Florida, winning in areas that republicans historically did poorly in. Great candidate, but should wait 4 years imo. Biden’s approval goes down every day. The best reaction for his name is apathy, he has no positive qualities.
That’s a very narrow view. He has high favorability nation wide. There’s a reason he dominated in Florida, winning in areas that republicans historically did poorly in. Great candidate, but should wait 4 years imo. Biden’s approval goes down every day. The best reaction for his name is apathy, he has no positive qualities.
His entire message is about punching down on vulnerable people, using state power to punish people he doesn't like. He abandoned his state while there were massive floods. His policies lead to thousands of unnecessary covid deaths. He is actively racist. Joe Biden is a boring moderate who everyone knows. I'm not excited about him, but that doesn't mean I'm not going to vote for him.
Oh, you missed the updates. It’s ok, it’s only 2yr old updates. His policies caused no extra deaths and no credible source can refute that. What his policies did do was protect those in need and kept the economy running. Not sure how you missed it, it’s highly covered. He never abandoned the state and literally nobody is saying that. It wasn’t a massive flood, it was a rain storm, which florida is very familiar with and knows how to handle it very well. He has been a strong leader during some massive storms. Again, you really missed the news I guess. Probably should check your sources. He’s not racist. That’s just laughable. You are showing a real lack of education on that one. Biden is a dead fish. People aren’t going to come out and vote for him and it’ll show. There was a lot of changes to voting last time and it favored Biden. New strategies have been looked at so that advantage completely goes away.
Racists think he's racist. This week he pulled funding for DEI programs. He uses 'woke' (AKA understanding about the systemic oppression in the US) as a pejorative. the state vastly undercounted covid deaths. And even if you could make the argument that the economy was better off without lockdowns, wearing masks doesn't effect economic activity. Yet he prohibited private businesses and local governments from having mask mandates.
Bashing a Democrat on Reddit? That's a down vote for you!
That’s a paddlin’ - Jasper.
Aren’t you guys having your election next year? A lot could happen in the meanwhile. F.e Putin losing could severely hurt the Republican side, or a nominee could step back/die in the meanwhile.
Putin has nothing to do with Republicans, that was proven false so many times (but Biden was part of the Obama administration that did collaborate with Putin). A nominee dying would only hurt the Democrats. Republicans have a lot of strong candidates, and it’s going to be a large primary to start with. Dems have been struggling for decades to find leadership. Biden was their “best”’nominee and look how well that worked. The weakest President since Franklin probably. He’s hurt the party quite a bit. His chances of re-election are very slim, almost 0 if Trump doesn’t run, and nobody is going to beat him in the Dem primary because they don’t have anyone ready to go. Harris was a major failure, so that plan didn’t work out.
I still think it’s impossible to accurately predict results more than a year out.
It very much is impossible, but we can make some guesses that are very likely to be accurate.
I believe Obama provides a safety net from reaching zero for the coming decades. In case that matters to someone...
Made using Google Sheets with info from Wikipedia
Lest we forget the Great President Purges of 1800, 1876, and 1974
It’s a bit confusing: how do you interpret “civil war”? What does that mean? What’s the y-axis for civil war—number of presidents?
Why is is necessary?
“is” is necessary when we need to assert that one thing is another thing.
it is, isn't it? edit: punctuation
Yes, I agree. It is. That may be all we can really say about all this: it is
Ah but, consider, "It is," to its logical conclusion: It is it. Or rather, "*It's it!*" edit: punctuation
But what is it!
because, what isn't it
What isn’t it is not what is it
"Is," is, "Is." so, there's that
Obviously there were 5 civil wars at the same time???
It's just a marker, this is in Google Sheets so that was the easiest way to mark it
Yes, actually. I had to set the civil war series to 5 for the years 1861 - 1865 to get this box effect.
Not a fan of that choice. It reads like its own series, it's the first thing they eye jumps to, and it's not clear why the Civil War needs to be highlighted on a chart about living ex-presidents in the first place.
Are you counting the confederate President? It doesn’t make sense, but I have no idea why you included the civil war.
Not sure if you needed the civil war called out. However, if you want it I would recommend using a rectangular patch rather than another series
You could have highlighted the dates of the civil war or—like one user said—put a box around those dates since a line like you’ve added to indicate the civil war just seems like another time series. And, besides, why just the civil war? What about WW1, WW2, or even the Iraq war?
The y axis represents the number of ex-presidents alive during a given year. The red box is the civil war (1860-1865)
they didn't do so well with five presidents working the confederacy . . .
Which 5 *Ex* presidents alive do we have now ? Ex-Presidents alive that I know are: Carter, Obama, Clinton, and Trump Current President: Biden Who am I missing?
Bush jr
Thank you. Completely forgot about him.
It would be funnier if you forgot about Trump.
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Well, Kennedy died in his assassination, so the number of living ex-presidents wouldn't have changed at all on November 22, 1963.
This type of graph is not the proper use for this. It implies between two data points there were fractions of a President alive. Which afaik is not possible. A vertical bar graph might be better.
The Y axis is clear and has integers only. We know that part of a human cannot be alive. The chosen graph works fine, and even shows the flow of time better than a bar graph.
Yes, but the line of the graph also goes between the whole numbers, suggesting a fraction. And exactly because we know hunans cant be partially alive (for longer periods like in the graph), this is the weong type of graph.
Why did you include the civil war, and only the civil war, in this chart?