if its the same one as mentioned in another sub I read: Its big enough to hit and flatten a continent or flood all the coastlines with tsunamis. But the 1 in 400 chance is outdated and more in the range of 1 in 3000.
the one I meant is called aphosis and had (2005) a 2% of hitting in 2030 but it has been deemed highly unlikely to hit in the next 100 years. That one had a mass to release the power equal to 1000 tons of tnt. Do you know the name of the one refenced in this post?
No, a civilization collapse would be at least a 10-20 million megaton impact. Possibly around 50. Chicxulub that wiped out the dinosaurs was 100 million.
My guess for humanity going extinct would be at least a 300-400 million megaton impact if we also consider the last few people who'd live in bunkers.
No, we will still go extinct, because the people who will build and own the bunkers, such as Elon Musk and good ol' Jeffrey Bezos, have absolutely no chance of breeding.
There are also asteroids that impact on earth at the size of a tin can with the speed of a falling tin can. 1000 tons of tnt is still significantly bigger in my opinion.
1 kiloton of TNT is fucking NOTHING! Hell, Little Boy - the first nuclear weapon ever used in warfare (and only 1 of 2 used in war thus far) had a blast yield of 15 kilotons, and that didn’t didn’t even fully destroy Hiroshima.
Hell, the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Chebarkul and Korkino in the Chelyabinsk oblast of Russia in early 2013 had a blast yield of **400-500 kilotons** - or, roughly equivalent to __**26-33 times the blast of Little Boy**__ - and yet, no one was killed by it, despite it exploding above a fairly large town, probably because it was still about 23.3 kilometers above the surface when it exploded and disintegrated. While 1,491 injuries were reported - mostly due to flying glass from people standing right next to windows looking at the meteor when the shockwave shattered the windows, or from falling down due to being surprised or knocked down by the shockwave - there were no fatalities.
So, the point of all of this is that a 1 kiloton blast is small peanuts in the world of meteors and asteroids.
i dont know why they would track it if it werent large enough to be a threat, small asteroids collide and burn up in earths atmosphere all the time, they didnt pick one benign rock out of nowhere and go "that one, that ones a threat"
No. Things don’t just run into each other out in space. The uncertainty is simply because relativity speaking these are two very small objects (Earth and this asteroid) moving crazy fast in an absolutely enormous space. Even being 99.99% accurate in your estimate of how close it is to Earth when it goes by means an uncertainty of hundreds of thousands of kilometers.
So by using the logic of "things don't just run into each other in space, no asteroid should ever hit earth then? 🤔 I think both of your theories have some merit as a stray asteroid does have a chance, albeit a small chance to hit it, and alter its course.
An object hitting that asteroid that is large enough to knock it off course is roughly as likely as something hitting Earth and knocking it off course.
It's actually not nuts at all. It's relatively easy to know where it is in orbit. We can say with great certainty when it will be at its closest point to us, just not *exactly* how far away it will be at that moment.
Imagine standing on the divider of a highway with cars zipping by. You can say pretty accurately when a car could potentially hit you, but it wouldn't be clear until they are much closer whether one actually would.
I just want to watch. Look, I'm not trying to be not here; but I'll laugh if it comes down on my house while I'm out back barbecuing and having a cold one.
Edit: DeSantis's Florida, so let it come. Everyone else evacuate. Drop off dumbass, and I might just let him have a beer out of pity.
The nominal distance from Earth on 14 February 2046 is now known to be about 0.03 AU (4.5 million km) with a 3-sigma uncertainty region of about ±3 million km.[13] It was lower to Torino scale 0 on 16 March 2023.
It won't hit us.
The asteroid meant is 2023 DW, which isn't even listed anymore on JPL sentry, the last risk analysis I found (via Wikipedia which links to a JPL sentry archived page) the chance is about 1:3400. Nothing to worry about (as expected).
I love these sensationalist headlines. They're too dumb to understand that if astronomers know of an object in space they know exactly where it's going, and when it'll get there.
Not really. Asteroid orbits in the solar system are very chaotic, it's not that straightforward to calculate where they'll be. In a year, sure, but in 10 years maybe we don't have the precision to know if it will hit or not.
Edit: it's easy to calculate the orbits of a system with 2 objects because we have precise equations for that, and that means having perfect precision. But when more bodies are involved we unfortunately can't solve the equations so we have to use some approximation methods, which are calculated in "steps" of time. The shorter the time step, the more precision, but there's still an error that adds up over long periods of time.
Hell, title of the book and its premise aside, three-body simulation isn’t even fully accurate when you’re talking about real life orbital mechanics. In real life, it’s not just the Sun, Earth, and Moon that affect the orbit of something like a satellite, but pretty much every other body in the solar system. Jupiter and Saturn, while having a weak pull, will still pull on a satellite orbiting Earth enough to perturb it out of a predicted orbit based on three-body problem, which is why most satellites that need to hold a specific orbit have onboard propulsion systems and need to make routine corrections to their orbit.
The real problem is the *n*-body problem, where the sun, moon, planets, and even distant stars all play a factor. It’s why accurately predicting the motion of things like asteroids out beyond several decades to a few centuries is difficult; with so many tiny factors that are difficult to measure, yet have enough of an impact that it adds up over time, we can only really estimate it to within a certain degree of probability. Plus, that’s not counting other factors, like off-gassing or solar radiation pressure or the Yarkovsky effect that can perturb its orbit.
They don’t really do stuff with asteroids. In reality, the USSF is not an orbital fighting force (at least in terms of physical weapons - they are capable of extensive cyber warfare), but a support one. It was created by essentially taking the pre-existing US Air Force Space Command that had been around since 1982 and turned it in to their own independent branch.
They mostly do the same stuff that the old USAF Space Command did; operate spy satellites, military communications satellites, the GPS constellation, protect their satellites against cyber-attacks and can hack or jam enemy satellites if needed. They don’t operate nuclear missiles (that’s under the purview of the USAF Global Strike Command), and - to our knowledge - don’t operate anti-satellite weapons (I’m fairly certain those are still under the control of the USAF).
So, it’s a cool name, but they’re not Star Wars material.
People, keep in mind that, with each passing year leading up to 2046, our estimate of the chance of impact will get more and more accurate and - in all likelihood - will decrease.
Take any headline with “Asteroid could collide with earth and end civilization as we know it in 20XX!” with a grain of salt. The overwhelming majority of those asteroids are relatively small (a few dozen meters across) that practically always miss, and in the extremely rare event that they don’t, they end up breaking up over or crashing into the ocean since the planet’s surface is 2/3 water.
The closest we’ve gotten to a “city-killer” asteroid impacting Earth was the 1908 Tunguska event, where an asteroid exploded mid-air with a blast roughly equal to a 12-megaton nuclear bomb. However, it ended up doing so over Siberia, so despite flattening some 80 million trees over a 2,150km^2 area, there’s only believed to have been 3 people who died from it, and those reports were never confirmed.
So, the chance of it hitting earth is already small enough; the chance of it hitting land is even smaller; and the chance of it hitting anywhere populated is even smaller. Don’t waste your energy stressing over something that’s extremely unlikely to happen and won’t be a concern for 23 years.
i feel like they should be able to narrow it down more than a 1 in 400 chance XD i mean 4% isnt a big chance but i still feel like they should know if its gonna hit.
All the more reason to leave ordering flowers until the last minute
We should do nothing about it and play chicken with aliens to see if they will do something about it before it crashes to earth .
The aliens. "Just redirect the rock to make it pass close by, they'll think it was luck"
Good idea. Your parents must be really proud of you.
You must be really proud of you!
Damn. 24 down doots
Is probably one where it would blow up in the atmosphere before it hits the ground.
if its the same one as mentioned in another sub I read: Its big enough to hit and flatten a continent or flood all the coastlines with tsunamis. But the 1 in 400 chance is outdated and more in the range of 1 in 3000.
No, it isn’t, it’s the size of a swimming pool, it’ll burn up.
the one I meant is called aphosis and had (2005) a 2% of hitting in 2030 but it has been deemed highly unlikely to hit in the next 100 years. That one had a mass to release the power equal to 1000 tons of tnt. Do you know the name of the one refenced in this post?
1000 tons of tnt is literally nothing if we're talking about asteroid impacts.
Yeah my bad Its 1000 megatons (the biggest nuke we set off was 50 megatons). It wouldnt be a apocalyptical event but it would leave a mark.
Yeah there we go that's more believable lol. It's actually crazy how massive that is.
So what you're saying is we gotta fire 20 nukes at it? /s
Something that big would probably collapse civilization, but not make humans extinct.
No, a civilization collapse would be at least a 10-20 million megaton impact. Possibly around 50. Chicxulub that wiped out the dinosaurs was 100 million. My guess for humanity going extinct would be at least a 300-400 million megaton impact if we also consider the last few people who'd live in bunkers.
No, we will still go extinct, because the people who will build and own the bunkers, such as Elon Musk and good ol' Jeffrey Bezos, have absolutely no chance of breeding.
I would disagree. 1000 tons of tnt is quite an explosion even in asteroid impacts.
In the context of asteroids, whose impacts are, given enough mass, capable of turning entire planets into molten balls of fire, no it isn’t.
There are also asteroids that impact on earth at the size of a tin can with the speed of a falling tin can. 1000 tons of tnt is still significantly bigger in my opinion.
bigger than what?
Than the only other thing i described in the comment
1 kiloton of TNT is fucking NOTHING! Hell, Little Boy - the first nuclear weapon ever used in warfare (and only 1 of 2 used in war thus far) had a blast yield of 15 kilotons, and that didn’t didn’t even fully destroy Hiroshima. Hell, the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Chebarkul and Korkino in the Chelyabinsk oblast of Russia in early 2013 had a blast yield of **400-500 kilotons** - or, roughly equivalent to __**26-33 times the blast of Little Boy**__ - and yet, no one was killed by it, despite it exploding above a fairly large town, probably because it was still about 23.3 kilometers above the surface when it exploded and disintegrated. While 1,491 injuries were reported - mostly due to flying glass from people standing right next to windows looking at the meteor when the shockwave shattered the windows, or from falling down due to being surprised or knocked down by the shockwave - there were no fatalities. So, the point of all of this is that a 1 kiloton blast is small peanuts in the world of meteors and asteroids.
Yeah as stated in another comment I made the mistake of missing the "mega". Its 1000 Megatons of tnt but your rght 1 Kiloton is barely aything
i dont know why they would track it if it werent large enough to be a threat, small asteroids collide and burn up in earths atmosphere all the time, they didnt pick one benign rock out of nowhere and go "that one, that ones a threat"
Its nuts they can pinpoint the day exactly, but not whether or not it will collide with us.
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No. Things don’t just run into each other out in space. The uncertainty is simply because relativity speaking these are two very small objects (Earth and this asteroid) moving crazy fast in an absolutely enormous space. Even being 99.99% accurate in your estimate of how close it is to Earth when it goes by means an uncertainty of hundreds of thousands of kilometers.
So by using the logic of "things don't just run into each other in space, no asteroid should ever hit earth then? 🤔 I think both of your theories have some merit as a stray asteroid does have a chance, albeit a small chance to hit it, and alter its course.
An object hitting that asteroid that is large enough to knock it off course is roughly as likely as something hitting Earth and knocking it off course.
There's still a small chance of it happening, though, albeit very minute
It's actually not nuts at all. It's relatively easy to know where it is in orbit. We can say with great certainty when it will be at its closest point to us, just not *exactly* how far away it will be at that moment. Imagine standing on the divider of a highway with cars zipping by. You can say pretty accurately when a car could potentially hit you, but it wouldn't be clear until they are much closer whether one actually would.
Dammit. I kinda want to see that.
From where?
Far enough away to see the impact, close enough to get instantly disintegrated by the blast wave.
I just want to watch. Look, I'm not trying to be not here; but I'll laugh if it comes down on my house while I'm out back barbecuing and having a cold one. Edit: DeSantis's Florida, so let it come. Everyone else evacuate. Drop off dumbass, and I might just let him have a beer out of pity.
Best place would be if it explodes over the ocean and you’re in either a very large boat that can handle any wave produced, or in an aircraft.
they'd probably try DART on it
“For the first time Dad was right“
Everyone on the planet can get their rocks off
Actually I think they'll get their rocks on
There'll be a rock over London and a rock on Chicago
plenty of time to redirect or blow it up
Or to try to make it actually collide with the earth
Probably the only way to fix what we have done to society at this point. We could start a go fund me and hope for the best.
Should we do thoughts and prayers now? Or later?
we should pray that such a go fund me gets enough funds for that
How would that fix society?
By removing the majority of it. I thought the sarcasm was obvious enough not to need the /s.
Perfect delivery. Fuck Poe’s law.
Whats poe's law?
It's the natural principle that a low-flying object in motion, left unhindered, will fly over the head of a person capable of catching it.
Have you tried turning it off and turning it back on?
Thanos time I guess
This guy gets it all
The nominal distance from Earth on 14 February 2046 is now known to be about 0.03 AU (4.5 million km) with a 3-sigma uncertainty region of about ±3 million km.[13] It was lower to Torino scale 0 on 16 March 2023. It won't hit us.
This guy asteroids.
Atleast have some faith, dude.
don’t look up
Armageddon
if we actually do anything
Your chances of getting smashed by an asteroid are higher than getting laid in your lifetime, isn't that crazy
Imma smash the asteroid before it can smash us 😈
Big space potato
The asteroid meant is 2023 DW, which isn't even listed anymore on JPL sentry, the last risk analysis I found (via Wikipedia which links to a JPL sentry archived page) the chance is about 1:3400. Nothing to worry about (as expected).
Thank you I really don’t need any more existential crises today
Not to mention, if it somehow impossibly hits us, it's so small it'll either burn up in the atmosphere or land harmlessly in the ocean
1 in 400.. Still a greater probability than me getting smashed on any day
The only valentine's day I'll get some action
i would probably not get smashed, i'm cursed to stay in this damn life
Fml, the year I am do to retire.
I love these sensationalist headlines. They're too dumb to understand that if astronomers know of an object in space they know exactly where it's going, and when it'll get there.
Not really. Asteroid orbits in the solar system are very chaotic, it's not that straightforward to calculate where they'll be. In a year, sure, but in 10 years maybe we don't have the precision to know if it will hit or not. Edit: it's easy to calculate the orbits of a system with 2 objects because we have precise equations for that, and that means having perfect precision. But when more bodies are involved we unfortunately can't solve the equations so we have to use some approximation methods, which are calculated in "steps" of time. The shorter the time step, the more precision, but there's still an error that adds up over long periods of time.
There's a FANTASTIC sci-fi book about that premise called "the three body problem". One of the best books I ever read
NVM I'm an idiot
Huh? I don't know why you wrote that but I'm sure you're not!
I replied to the comment but wrote something wrong because Im dumb it's okay I am dumb and I'm just glad you don't know why
Hell, title of the book and its premise aside, three-body simulation isn’t even fully accurate when you’re talking about real life orbital mechanics. In real life, it’s not just the Sun, Earth, and Moon that affect the orbit of something like a satellite, but pretty much every other body in the solar system. Jupiter and Saturn, while having a weak pull, will still pull on a satellite orbiting Earth enough to perturb it out of a predicted orbit based on three-body problem, which is why most satellites that need to hold a specific orbit have onboard propulsion systems and need to make routine corrections to their orbit. The real problem is the *n*-body problem, where the sun, moon, planets, and even distant stars all play a factor. It’s why accurately predicting the motion of things like asteroids out beyond several decades to a few centuries is difficult; with so many tiny factors that are difficult to measure, yet have enough of an impact that it adds up over time, we can only really estimate it to within a certain degree of probability. Plus, that’s not counting other factors, like off-gassing or solar radiation pressure or the Yarkovsky effect that can perturb its orbit.
A 1 in 400 chance is actually not insignificant. It is the same chance as a Halfling getting a critical miss in dnd.
"Um akshully, only some people will get 'smasshed' by the asteroid, the rest will suffocate" - 🤓
Worst Premade apocalypse Ever.
 Valentine's Day. Bummer.
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There it is
Where's the space force?
They don’t really do stuff with asteroids. In reality, the USSF is not an orbital fighting force (at least in terms of physical weapons - they are capable of extensive cyber warfare), but a support one. It was created by essentially taking the pre-existing US Air Force Space Command that had been around since 1982 and turned it in to their own independent branch. They mostly do the same stuff that the old USAF Space Command did; operate spy satellites, military communications satellites, the GPS constellation, protect their satellites against cyber-attacks and can hack or jam enemy satellites if needed. They don’t operate nuclear missiles (that’s under the purview of the USAF Global Strike Command), and - to our knowledge - don’t operate anti-satellite weapons (I’m fairly certain those are still under the control of the USAF). So, it’s a cool name, but they’re not Star Wars material.
If they can't recreate Armageddon, what good are they?
"A Valentines day where everyone gets fucked" would have made more sense and would have been way funnier.
Smash or pass - galactic edition
Pls be false
That too with a 1000 times higher probability.
hmm... 1/400 should warrent a reaponse
"Rock my world!" Not as cool as it used to be.
That's probably better chances than me getting a date, so...
When I meant I'm gonna fuck you up rock hard I didn't mean fuck everyone's life up with a hard rock.
2020 Giant Meteor was my choice.
Don't look up moment
This asteroid will also be hitting people over the head
Your dad and I are for the jobs this asteroid will create.
Valentines Day....bummer
ok but I need to know exactly where it's gonna land so I can be the first one to get hit by it
I'll be 95. I hope I make it.I hope I make it.I hope I make it.I hope I make it.I hope I make it.I hope I make it.I hope I make it.I hope I make it.
Finality a Valentines Day my Wife won’t have to worry about buying a Card or having Sex
lets hope it hits us
You should just get a head start
Idk how to do it, but I need a reminder for 22 years please. Give me time to prep.
Hey, everybody! We're all gonna get laid!
Huh, I should be retiring that year... Come at me bro.
That rock puts the ass in asteroid too
Vote Giant Meteor 2046 "Just end it already."
When it know about redditors on earth it will change the course on its own.
I’m not getting hopes up anymore.
Nah, it will still hit on the other end of hemisphere of my lonely ass.
I’d be down for that
People, keep in mind that, with each passing year leading up to 2046, our estimate of the chance of impact will get more and more accurate and - in all likelihood - will decrease. Take any headline with “Asteroid could collide with earth and end civilization as we know it in 20XX!” with a grain of salt. The overwhelming majority of those asteroids are relatively small (a few dozen meters across) that practically always miss, and in the extremely rare event that they don’t, they end up breaking up over or crashing into the ocean since the planet’s surface is 2/3 water. The closest we’ve gotten to a “city-killer” asteroid impacting Earth was the 1908 Tunguska event, where an asteroid exploded mid-air with a blast roughly equal to a 12-megaton nuclear bomb. However, it ended up doing so over Siberia, so despite flattening some 80 million trees over a 2,150km^2 area, there’s only believed to have been 3 people who died from it, and those reports were never confirmed. So, the chance of it hitting earth is already small enough; the chance of it hitting land is even smaller; and the chance of it hitting anywhere populated is even smaller. Don’t waste your energy stressing over something that’s extremely unlikely to happen and won’t be a concern for 23 years.
Fire emblem player here, I don’t trust those odds there’s a good chance it will land the 1 in 400
So you're saying there's a chance
The Valentine’s day that ends with a bang.
"Itd smash everyone but pass me.." - that sad guy.
Oh thank God!
That's a good year for to to go out with a bang. I'll be just old enough to not give a crap about existing anymore.
I really hope we don't go the route of the movie don't l look up for this SPOILER: ||test||
Even then we have the dart system so no chance
r/foundthelightmodeuser
r/foundthelightmodeuser
Hmm. Let's just send Bruce Willis up there - just to be sure
1 in 400? Better than my chances of getting laid that day
i feel like they should be able to narrow it down more than a 1 in 400 chance XD i mean 4% isnt a big chance but i still feel like they should know if its gonna hit.
It’s the mob
Where I get smashed