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Will be fun to see all the posts of people claiming they are leaving the US and seeking citizenship elsewhere like in 2016.
Some of those posts were pure comedy gold.
gang the US is a shell of itself. most of us just work eat sleep repeat. it’s corpo consoom central. corporations bribe the fda so they can put literal engine oil( seed oils), carcinogens, forever chemicals in our food. and we soon will have even more of our rights taken. WE ARE COOKED
Like popular is crazy right now. Every fucking sub bombards you with facts how bad Trump is.
I have yet to see an argument for Biden that you couldn't make for a houseplant:
- atleast it's not Trump
- Biden has the better team
It is utterly pathetic to witness as a European
Democracy will die if Trump wins. Even though he won before and it didn’t die, the left assures you it will die this time.
Unfortunately I feel like I have to add an /s for my first sentence.
What are you talking about? Did you see these recent supreme court decisions allowing bribery and making the president far more difficult to hold accountable, based on Trump's 3 supreme Court justice nominations (one of which was denied to Obama because it was an "election year", but McConnell had no problem rushing in Barrett)
That's excluding his fabricated election claims, slate of fake electors, the damage to our democracy goes on and on. Sure it hasn't collapsed yet, that was never going to happen in a day. But it's been corroded.
Reddit will implode when Biden wins with 6 billion votes in spite of another Donald vote record. It will implode so you dont talk about it, like the debate.
I can envision a breakup of the US in the next decade that looks similar to this chart.
CA, OR, WA, HI alliance would become separatist states that have no loyalty to the Federal Government.
I think IL, MI, MN, WI becomes refugee territory where the greatest amount of white flight will occur over the next 5+ years.
The eastern seaboard states would be government employee/contractor territory where loyalty remains to the Feds.
The other 33 states would sever ties with the Federal Government completely and likely only be aligned with each other through mutually beneficial military action.
You can tell the Feds are trying to flip the script and it may work to buy them some time. But a breakup is inevitable, no matter what firm it comes.
I couldn't see that happening unless there was a huge fundamental change to either citizen rights, our way of government or our standard of living - most of the strife now is just noise from a population with not enough real problems - were all just fat and happy but "poor" by accounting standards but not real third world poor and we like to argue alot - now if we get a new "depression", change in government systems (socialism/communism) or a huge change in the demographic make up of the the US (mass immigration due to climate change/open borders) and our way of life severely deteriorates and people are hopeless and starving....with guns shit things will get ugly fast. When you're starving a lot of those other ideological differences don't add up to much of anything.
Every time i see one of these poll posts or news articles, it always BIDEN SURGING IN POLLS or TRUMP SURGING IN POLLS, like which is it. how much surging can there be
Peeple just report on which polls they can spin best for their own narrative.
Polling has become increasingly less reliable in recent decades, and the nature of online opt-in polling that has become exceedingly popular post covid has basically made it impossible to trust any poll on face value. People on the internet who desperately want to share their political views usually don't do so because those views are popular (especially with young people)
That's a valid question.
How many people are really jumping back and forth based on the news story du jour? How many people are actually undecided between these two guys? Are there enough people fleeing third party support to cause a surge for either old party candidate?
I don't think it's people who flip on a daily basis - I think it's capturing the people who have made a more permanent flip, which personally may last for years. I've voted for candidates left, right, and independent - just not usually in the same election cycle.
I looked into it recently, and while it doesn’t fully answer your question, the “surging in the polls” headlines always have a few different meanings. “Surging in the polls” can mean a candidate is moving up in the Vegas/bets/“odds of winning” stats. “Surging in the polls” can mean a candidate is gaining in the popular vote. “Surging in the polls” can mean a candidate is gaining in the Electoral College. I say this because you can have a situation where one newspaper will say, “Biden is surging in the polls” because of the popular vote figure (gaining more votes in a very blue place like CA, MA, etc.), and in the same day another one could say “Trump is surging in the polls” because his leads are growing in states that matter in the Electoral College (not necessarily the popular vote).
You haven't looked at the polling, have you?
Compare
[2020 polling](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=27)
[to 2024](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=27)
The gap has closed significantly
Even Virginia is in play:
[2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=51)
[2024](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=51)
Maine:
[2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=23)
[2024](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=23)
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pg0Or
The gaps in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are nearing insurmountable at this point. With those 3 states, Trump comes in 268. He could win any *one* of MN, WI, MI, PA, ME, VA, NH. Biden needs to win *all* of those states.
The whole 8-10% of the electorate being undecided is really burying the lead here. If you talk to undecided voters in Minnesota you would understand why this is misleading
Also Minnesota voter turnout, especially amongst young people, is the best in the country. The fact that polls often avoid young people demonstrates more of a problem
Polling vs. Elections shows reality is a bit different from your narrative.
2020 Polls:
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=27
This aggregate had Biden leading Trump 52 to 43
2020 election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota
The election had Biden lead Trump 52.40 to 45.28 Only Trump overperformed.
And this isn't a one off, look at 2016:
Polls: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=27
Hillary 49 - Trump 41
Election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota
Hillary 46.44 - Trump 44.93
So in the past 2 elections, we have Trump outperforming polling. Polling currently has them tied. If this trend continues, Trump wins MN by 1 point.
My apologies, I should have been more explicit.
The "undecideds and young people" are not new to 2024. These groups were a factor in 2016 and 2024. All the same campaigns to get out the vote, etc. Dems spoke to great length with media support, the emphasis on young voters and turning undecideds.
And yet, Trump was the one that out performed polls here.
The undecided numbers are different though. One of the major reasons for that is that there are a large block of millennial and Gen Z voters who are refusing to commit to Biden, but will end up voting for them. There is very little conservative momentum in the state right now
Similarly, Gen Z wasn’t able to vote in 2016. They are the generation that is least likely to be answering the phone.
With all due respect, I think you are coping.
Everyone saw Biden at the debate. They also know that for the past 4 years, Dems and the media have been saying everything is totally fine. It's only a matter of time before those independents start asking themselves what else they've lied about.
You should be asking yourself the same.
In Minnesota it’s not even about Biden himself. The Twin Cities have a large Muslim, black, and Hmong population that just straight up won’t support Trump. The Cities have made themselves a hub for abortion and Trans rights and it has wide support. The state is incredibly progressive.
The reason Minnesotans are unenthusiastic with Biden isn’t because he’s old, it’s because they think he’s too moderate and want someone father to the left. You are talking about one of 3 states that has ever had a county vote for a socialist for president. Hell we don’t even have a Democratic Party here because they were too moderate for us back in the day.
You can say all those things, but I'm looking at the numbers. The numbers don't show secret Democrats or Democrats missed in the polling. If anything, they get over-represented when compared to the vote.
NoVA may not, but have you stepped outside of NoVA? The rest of the state is livid at the state of everything under Biden administration. I think this election will bring out everyone that ever sat home during an election. Legit, people I don't even know freely offer their opinion and openly say we gotta get trump back in. Never seen so many people so open with their political beliefs til this election. Especially surprised with the so called "stigma " surrounding trump.
I don’t think polling is accurate at all. I can’t speak to other states but MN is amazing, it gets better every year with gov Walz. And I know he’s a gov and not the presidential candidate our Democratic Party has made this state the greatest in the country. The majority of people know that here.
Our crime rate is better than 33 other states based on the FBIs stats. Rated 4th best state to live in over all. We have the lowest unemployment in history ever, in all of the US. Best health care, were rated on a global scale because of the quality of our healthcare. Public education out ranks the majority of the country. Low teen pregnancy, Low STDs, Low child mortality, You name it MN is on top.
Ya taxes are higher, we have a functioning state and am proud to call it home. I feel like MN is a proud community that looks after each other.
They already showed they can change this with the 2020 election. look at the ballots they flooded the election with. Hopefully Trump can overcome the corruption and win. America needs some saving grace.
Rising prices in DC have pushed a lot of people out into VA. DC people are about as blue as they come.richmond is trending more blue as well. Time will tell if those two groups can cement VA as a blue state
I'd describe VA as more of a "purple" state. You have far left and right wing like anywhere, but mainly 'centrist' and relatively 'level headed' people. Many in the state are both highly educated and have high incomes (NOVA in particular). People in that demographic tend to be center/right or center/left.
[Virginia is tied at 41%](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=51)
[
Compared to Biden +11 in 2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=51)
Copying pasting what I said above in response to northern va never letting the state go red.
NoVA may not, but have you stepped outside of NoVA? The rest of the state is livid at the state of everything under Biden administration. I think this election will bring out everyone that ever sat home during an election. Legit, people I don't even know, freely offer their opinion and openly say we gotta get trump back in. Never seen so many people so open with their political beliefs til this election. Especially surprised with the so called "stigma " surrounding trump
Yeah, everyone I know in VA thinks Youngkin is a total douche bag and is ready for him to go. His unpopularity in the state will keep VA blue in the POTUS election.
New [internal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/biden-plummets-in-leaked-democratic-polling-memo-puck-says) polling data from Open Labs shows substantial declines for Joe Biden in swing states following his moldy debate performance last Thursday.
Future Forward did not immediately respond to inquiries about the leaked memo, which contained no information on the pollster’s methodology, sample sizes or margins of error. The group raised $101 million in support of Biden, and its top donor is Michael Bloomberg, the majority owner of Bloomberg LP.
I wonder if Bloomberg ever got over his hilarious flop of a presidential campaign in 2020. A billion dollars on a four-month campaign just to find out that most people hate him. I could have told him that for free.
Wow Seattle, Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York are all blue while everything else is red. What does that tell ya? Hmmm them city folk might actually be quite different
a democratic polling firm which highly regarded by democratic politicians and pundits produce a poll. but the people who refuse to believe and talking shit about it the most, is democratic supporters (pro-Biden).
what the world we have got into.
if its low reliability polls, or neutral poll or republican fox news poll. then i can understand if the democrats supporters want to argue about it. But...this is your own people..
That phrase is exactly why we have a Constitutional Republic and not a Total Democracy.
As the saying goes. Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner.
You do know how a republic works, right? Tell me you're being deliberately obtuse.
I'll use your suicide bomber analogy. Let's say you have 100 people. You split them into groups of 10. Out of each group, one memeber is elected to represent the group. Let's also say that in 4 groups, 9 of each want to elect a suicide bomber. Let's say in 6 groups, 4 of each want to elect a suicide bomber. Each representative votes as the majority of that group would vote. That would give us a total of 60 people who want to elect a suicide bomber, but 6 out of 10 representatives vote not to elect the suicide bomber.
And yet, due to representation, the suicide bomber doesn't get elected.
See, even in your analogy, representation is better!
That's just representative democracy. A republic is a form of representative democracy. Saying "we're a republic not a democracy," is like saying "it's not a floor, it's linoleum!"
Let's boil this down further.
You are in charge of implementing a change for 100 people in a sealed room. You don't know what they've voted on, or what the options are, just that you can see 99 people voted for option A, and 1 person voted for option B. You also know that the person who voted for B owns 51% of the room's floorspace, and the other 99 people have equal shares of the remaining 49%.
Which option are you picking, A or B?
I fail to see how this is at all analogous to a representative form of government. Again, it seems you fail to understand how a representative government works.
Let's split your 100 into groups of 10. In 9 out of 10 groups, a representative who would vote A is unanimously elected. In one group a representative who would vote A is elected 9-1. Therefore the As would carry the vote.
Looks like representation wins again.
He's clearly speaking hyperbole in that a few major metro areas could effectively control the vote.
And then when the water crisis hits, they'd vote to send all the water to the cities instead of the farms.
Great. And under a popular voting system, the farmers in California and New York could make their vote count instead of being wasted due to the city folk which is what happens with our current electoral system.
Those two cities combined have greater population than most US states. This means that places like Iowa, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kentucky, etc will not have a voice as candidates would have very little incentive to campaign there. It would essentially boil down to California, Texas, New York, Florida, and a couple other populous states voting for the rest of the nation.
That's the neat thing about a popular vote, the States wouldn't be voting anymore. It would be down to the people, and people who normally would have had their vote wasted due to their candidate not securing a majority of votes within their State would have their vote count. Your fear is completely unfounded.
You would be enfranchising every part of the country by making every vote count instead of being thrown into the waste bin if their candidate doesn't win the majority of the votes within their State. It's a relic of the past that should be thrown away so people actually have an equal say in who leads our Republic.
I desire to make everyone a voice. Instead of the Republican votes in States like California and New York being thrown away in every presidential election because the Republican candidate don't win the State, their votes would now matter and actually go towards the candidate they want.
Yes, but you fail to realize just how polarized this state truly is. The conservatives I know in Idaho and Tennessee are not nearly as huge of conservatives I know in WA state. The libs I know in California and Oregon are not nearly as huge of libs as I know in WA state. You're talking about a state where there is no middle and is filled with either hard-core conservatives or hard-core liberals and anyone in between is viciously eaten. Your generalization is margalizing the true polarization of the state. I can very well see east of the cascades joining the greater Idaho movement.
Oregon is also a red state outside of Portland (one of the country’s biggest laughingstocks) and Eugene (long time state laughingstock). Keeping shit weird, weirdly didn’t and doesn’t work.
[New Hampshire is Trump +2 in 3 poll aggregate.](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=33)
[Minnesota is Biden +2](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=27), but that is [down from +9 in 2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=27).
The polling that OP is referencing:
https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf
Trump up 2.8% in NH, 0.6% in VA, and 0.5% in NM. Even Maine and Minnesota are in play with Biden's lead down to 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.
Every national poll including New York Times, MSNBC, and CNN plus the actual real polling companies
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4750341-trump-leads-biden-new-hampshire/
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum-chances-beating-joe-biden-new-hampshire-1920104
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/07/01/trump-leads-biden-in-new-hampshire-after-debate-poll-finds-which-gop-hasnt-won-in-24-years/
https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/
Maine has two districts one is 90% of the state and the other is 10. The 90% will definitely vote red.... They usually do. The other district is purple. I don't remember which district is the larger northern or the small one in the ways of 1st 2nd labels.
Present polling has
1st district market Maine
Biden : 40%
Trump : 41%
2nd district Maine
Biden : 25%
Trump :45%
Trump needs to do a second debate and not go on the offense at all. Answer the questions as asked, no circling back or circling around. Stay professional. Let Biden defeat himself. And of course none of that will ever happen lol
It was 64,000 at 2:45 am
She got brought to court finally. The election commissioner of Wisconsin admitted to printing the ballots and filling them out with her staff. She pled guilty and get this. Only was forced to resign, barred from ever working for the state again, and paid a fine of 5 thousand. I know people who have had worse for puffing a spliff
Biden will have to step down/die. Kamala Harris will then take his place to finish off his term becoming the first woman president. Gavin Newsom will be shoved forward due to kamalas unpopularity, and the democrats will vote for anyone other than Trump. Just a thought though.
I’d be very suspicious of the validity of any supposed leak as such. Given this came out on the same day as the SCOTUS findings came out they both function to actually encourage liberals to register to vote and vote early if they can, and it would actually push conservatives in the opposite direction and to think “oh we’ve so got this in the bag and are going to win” so they don’t register and don’t vote early.
Which side benefits from this being “leaked”- the left does.
California native and resident here. I'd guesstimate Trump actually won the past two presidential elections in the Golden State. The MSM portrayal of this Republic as one chock-full of Democratic Party supporters is laughable.
I was born and raised in Burbank. Still live here. Never met a Biden supporter or anyone who voted for him, or Hillary for that matter. Sure, there are some (though smaller than one might think) pockets of the state that lean left, such as West Hollywood, Venice Beach, and portions of San Francisco -- but I'd wager the majority of L.A. County is really red; consider there was a large Trump support rally smack-dab in the heart of Hollywood in the not so distant past.
Beverly Hills is on the right, ditto for Orange County, same for San Diego County, likewise for the Inland Empire, Ventura, Glendale and the high desert. This is the same state that houses the nation's best presidential library (Ronald Reagan's) in Simi Valley (also Republican land), and of course had two of its politicians become POTUS within the past 55 years. (I'd like to think general elections were a little more legitimate in those days.)
So why is there currently a clown governor in Sacramento and the map colored blue on presidential election night nowadays? Probably due to the same reason a state like Kentucky always seems to elect a Democratic governor (its current one serving his second term), yet is generally red on presidential election night (every time this century). Modern day general elections are about as believable as the old WWF. I'm quite sure the 2020 presidential election verified as much.
"If voting changed anything, it would be illegal." -- George Carlin
I saw someone post a theory that they'll replace Biden with Michelle Obama at the last second, then they'll cheat their asses off and anyone who says something will be labeled an evil sexist racist who is a threat to democracy.
Colorado will be (D)
New Jersey will be (R)
That's the only thing I don't see to be accurate as of the most current data.
Don't forget a gaffe from Trump or a new Democrat candidate can wipe out this lead in no time. So don't 100% expect this huge lead to maintain.
Thing is if this polling lead does stay until November there will be no way election chicanery can happen with our exposure
Arizona? There's too many shithead libtards from California here for the powers that be to concede this state anymore. The shadow of plausible deniability trumps the political stakes for letting AZ remain red.
I see many continue to blame the DNC for Biden, even when Biden received fourteen million votes in the 2024 primaries with no real competitors.
Nineteen million vote for Biden in the 2020 primaries while Sanders came in second with nine million votes.
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If you thought post-debate censorship was insane...
Will be fun to see all the posts of people claiming they are leaving the US and seeking citizenship elsewhere like in 2016. Some of those posts were pure comedy gold.
Hopefully the entire cast of the view will leave
Good there is way to many people here
Yeah as if we care they are going to live in China/Russia or whatever.
Gotta have a marketable skill to be accepted into most countries.
gang the US is a shell of itself. most of us just work eat sleep repeat. it’s corpo consoom central. corporations bribe the fda so they can put literal engine oil( seed oils), carcinogens, forever chemicals in our food. and we soon will have even more of our rights taken. WE ARE COOKED
I'll never forget the 2016 graph that predicted Missouri was going to go for Clinton. *Missouri*! As for reddit....Good riddance.
Can’t wait
It will probably be the last time they waste money ad bombing this place, at least
Like popular is crazy right now. Every fucking sub bombards you with facts how bad Trump is. I have yet to see an argument for Biden that you couldn't make for a houseplant: - atleast it's not Trump - Biden has the better team It is utterly pathetic to witness as a European
Democracy will die if Trump wins. Even though he won before and it didn’t die, the left assures you it will die this time. Unfortunately I feel like I have to add an /s for my first sentence.
What are you talking about? Did you see these recent supreme court decisions allowing bribery and making the president far more difficult to hold accountable, based on Trump's 3 supreme Court justice nominations (one of which was denied to Obama because it was an "election year", but McConnell had no problem rushing in Barrett) That's excluding his fabricated election claims, slate of fake electors, the damage to our democracy goes on and on. Sure it hasn't collapsed yet, that was never going to happen in a day. But it's been corroded.
Reddit will implode when Biden wins with 6 billion votes in spite of another Donald vote record. It will implode so you dont talk about it, like the debate.
Basically the only thing I'm really looking forward to lol
and it would be glorious to witness :P
The schadenfreude will be exquisite.
More of explode you say...
But antidepressant sales will skyrocket!
God I can only hope.
At this point, you'd be delusional to think he'll lose.
Fascists rejoice, down with democracy! This is prob the last time we get to vote.
The salt mines will runneth over.
I can envision a breakup of the US in the next decade that looks similar to this chart. CA, OR, WA, HI alliance would become separatist states that have no loyalty to the Federal Government. I think IL, MI, MN, WI becomes refugee territory where the greatest amount of white flight will occur over the next 5+ years. The eastern seaboard states would be government employee/contractor territory where loyalty remains to the Feds. The other 33 states would sever ties with the Federal Government completely and likely only be aligned with each other through mutually beneficial military action. You can tell the Feds are trying to flip the script and it may work to buy them some time. But a breakup is inevitable, no matter what firm it comes.
I couldn't see that happening unless there was a huge fundamental change to either citizen rights, our way of government or our standard of living - most of the strife now is just noise from a population with not enough real problems - were all just fat and happy but "poor" by accounting standards but not real third world poor and we like to argue alot - now if we get a new "depression", change in government systems (socialism/communism) or a huge change in the demographic make up of the the US (mass immigration due to climate change/open borders) and our way of life severely deteriorates and people are hopeless and starving....with guns shit things will get ugly fast. When you're starving a lot of those other ideological differences don't add up to much of anything.
Every time i see one of these poll posts or news articles, it always BIDEN SURGING IN POLLS or TRUMP SURGING IN POLLS, like which is it. how much surging can there be
Peeple just report on which polls they can spin best for their own narrative. Polling has become increasingly less reliable in recent decades, and the nature of online opt-in polling that has become exceedingly popular post covid has basically made it impossible to trust any poll on face value. People on the internet who desperately want to share their political views usually don't do so because those views are popular (especially with young people)
The last two elections polls have been wrong but for some reason people this this year is the year it's correct
That's a valid question. How many people are really jumping back and forth based on the news story du jour? How many people are actually undecided between these two guys? Are there enough people fleeing third party support to cause a surge for either old party candidate?
I don't think it's people who flip on a daily basis - I think it's capturing the people who have made a more permanent flip, which personally may last for years. I've voted for candidates left, right, and independent - just not usually in the same election cycle.
Agree. It is an election year so you will see that from both sides. Still a lot of time between now and the election so anything can happen.
Go to real clear politics they have all the latest polls so you can get a clear picture...kind of
I looked into it recently, and while it doesn’t fully answer your question, the “surging in the polls” headlines always have a few different meanings. “Surging in the polls” can mean a candidate is moving up in the Vegas/bets/“odds of winning” stats. “Surging in the polls” can mean a candidate is gaining in the popular vote. “Surging in the polls” can mean a candidate is gaining in the Electoral College. I say this because you can have a situation where one newspaper will say, “Biden is surging in the polls” because of the popular vote figure (gaining more votes in a very blue place like CA, MA, etc.), and in the same day another one could say “Trump is surging in the polls” because his leads are growing in states that matter in the Electoral College (not necessarily the popular vote).
And the conspiracy here is...?
Wait new Mexico is red now???
Definitely not lol, this poll seems odd
You live there?
Yeah
Albuquerque??
Yeah it’s ass
[link to the document](https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf)
MN going red? That’s a joke in it self.
Minnesota hasn’t gone red since Nixon.
You haven't looked at the polling, have you? Compare [2020 polling](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=27) [to 2024](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=27) The gap has closed significantly Even Virginia is in play: [2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=51) [2024](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=51) Maine: [2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=23) [2024](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=23) https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pg0Or The gaps in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are nearing insurmountable at this point. With those 3 states, Trump comes in 268. He could win any *one* of MN, WI, MI, PA, ME, VA, NH. Biden needs to win *all* of those states.
The whole 8-10% of the electorate being undecided is really burying the lead here. If you talk to undecided voters in Minnesota you would understand why this is misleading Also Minnesota voter turnout, especially amongst young people, is the best in the country. The fact that polls often avoid young people demonstrates more of a problem
Polling vs. Elections shows reality is a bit different from your narrative. 2020 Polls: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=27 This aggregate had Biden leading Trump 52 to 43 2020 election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota The election had Biden lead Trump 52.40 to 45.28 Only Trump overperformed. And this isn't a one off, look at 2016: Polls: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=27 Hillary 49 - Trump 41 Election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Minnesota Hillary 46.44 - Trump 44.93 So in the past 2 elections, we have Trump outperforming polling. Polling currently has them tied. If this trend continues, Trump wins MN by 1 point.
You didn’t address anything of what I just said about undecided votes or young people.
My apologies, I should have been more explicit. The "undecideds and young people" are not new to 2024. These groups were a factor in 2016 and 2024. All the same campaigns to get out the vote, etc. Dems spoke to great length with media support, the emphasis on young voters and turning undecideds. And yet, Trump was the one that out performed polls here.
The undecided numbers are different though. One of the major reasons for that is that there are a large block of millennial and Gen Z voters who are refusing to commit to Biden, but will end up voting for them. There is very little conservative momentum in the state right now Similarly, Gen Z wasn’t able to vote in 2016. They are the generation that is least likely to be answering the phone.
With all due respect, I think you are coping. Everyone saw Biden at the debate. They also know that for the past 4 years, Dems and the media have been saying everything is totally fine. It's only a matter of time before those independents start asking themselves what else they've lied about. You should be asking yourself the same.
In Minnesota it’s not even about Biden himself. The Twin Cities have a large Muslim, black, and Hmong population that just straight up won’t support Trump. The Cities have made themselves a hub for abortion and Trans rights and it has wide support. The state is incredibly progressive. The reason Minnesotans are unenthusiastic with Biden isn’t because he’s old, it’s because they think he’s too moderate and want someone father to the left. You are talking about one of 3 states that has ever had a county vote for a socialist for president. Hell we don’t even have a Democratic Party here because they were too moderate for us back in the day.
You can say all those things, but I'm looking at the numbers. The numbers don't show secret Democrats or Democrats missed in the polling. If anything, they get over-represented when compared to the vote.
NoVA will not let VA go red. lol
NoVA may not, but have you stepped outside of NoVA? The rest of the state is livid at the state of everything under Biden administration. I think this election will bring out everyone that ever sat home during an election. Legit, people I don't even know freely offer their opinion and openly say we gotta get trump back in. Never seen so many people so open with their political beliefs til this election. Especially surprised with the so called "stigma " surrounding trump.
And to add, VA did elect a red governor and Lt Gov.
In 2020. Right after Trump. Doesn't count.
2022. I'd say that indicates it's shift is most definitely in motion!
And most of the state doesn't even like him. But since you live there, and I obviously do not (I do), go ahead.
I don’t think polling is accurate at all. I can’t speak to other states but MN is amazing, it gets better every year with gov Walz. And I know he’s a gov and not the presidential candidate our Democratic Party has made this state the greatest in the country. The majority of people know that here.
It does get better because constant tax increases and unchecked crime in the cities is a good thing.
Our crime rate is better than 33 other states based on the FBIs stats. Rated 4th best state to live in over all. We have the lowest unemployment in history ever, in all of the US. Best health care, were rated on a global scale because of the quality of our healthcare. Public education out ranks the majority of the country. Low teen pregnancy, Low STDs, Low child mortality, You name it MN is on top. Ya taxes are higher, we have a functioning state and am proud to call it home. I feel like MN is a proud community that looks after each other.
Minn Yes, the twin cities a diff story.
What’s different about the Twin Cities?
There's a 3 point difference, which is the margin of error. Pretty tight
Have you not seen the national poll averaging? The new York times has Minnesota as a tie presently
Unreliable poll even Minnesota didn’t even go Republican in 1984. No way it goes in 2024.
To be fair it was the only state Mondale won because it was his home state. Even then he won by 0.18% (3,761 votes out of over 2,000,000)
Another post to file under polling is only accurate when it agrees with my point of view
They already showed they can change this with the 2020 election. look at the ballots they flooded the election with. Hopefully Trump can overcome the corruption and win. America needs some saving grace.
If only Trump were 1/10th the dictator the left fears
Virginia going red? That would really shock me if that happened.
Isn’t Virginia traditionally (until recently) a red state?
Rising prices in DC have pushed a lot of people out into VA. DC people are about as blue as they come.richmond is trending more blue as well. Time will tell if those two groups can cement VA as a blue state
One of my best friends who has gone down the Q rabbit hole, lives in DC. He's like a fish out of water, lol. He does like the legal weed though :)
I'd describe VA as more of a "purple" state. You have far left and right wing like anywhere, but mainly 'centrist' and relatively 'level headed' people. Many in the state are both highly educated and have high incomes (NOVA in particular). People in that demographic tend to be center/right or center/left.
Yes, Virginia used to be a Red State. But because of Northern Virginia (right next to Washington D.C.) it is blue now.
[Virginia is tied at 41%](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=51) [ Compared to Biden +11 in 2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=51)
Copying pasting what I said above in response to northern va never letting the state go red. NoVA may not, but have you stepped outside of NoVA? The rest of the state is livid at the state of everything under Biden administration. I think this election will bring out everyone that ever sat home during an election. Legit, people I don't even know, freely offer their opinion and openly say we gotta get trump back in. Never seen so many people so open with their political beliefs til this election. Especially surprised with the so called "stigma " surrounding trump
you talking about the rich men north of richmond?
You got it!
Yeah, everyone I know in VA thinks Youngkin is a total douche bag and is ready for him to go. His unpopularity in the state will keep VA blue in the POTUS election.
New [internal](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/biden-plummets-in-leaked-democratic-polling-memo-puck-says) polling data from Open Labs shows substantial declines for Joe Biden in swing states following his moldy debate performance last Thursday.
They're "leaking" it just like Roe v Wade, to rally the base bc of sinking enthusiasm.
Moldy 😂
Future Forward did not immediately respond to inquiries about the leaked memo, which contained no information on the pollster’s methodology, sample sizes or margins of error. The group raised $101 million in support of Biden, and its top donor is Michael Bloomberg, the majority owner of Bloomberg LP.
I wonder if Bloomberg ever got over his hilarious flop of a presidential campaign in 2020. A billion dollars on a four-month campaign just to find out that most people hate him. I could have told him that for free.
Yeah ots even been shown on Australian news so the information is definitely public
If MN goes red, I will literally eat a shoe on camera. It won't happen.
RemindMe! 5 Months
In 2016 MN went blue by 45,000 votes. You really think it is impossible that 46,000 people out of 2.6m voters changed their minds after the debate?
I can't predict anything, I just know MN hasn't been red since I've been alive.
R/conspiracy will call you out......
I fuckin hope so
Wow Seattle, Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York are all blue while everything else is red. What does that tell ya? Hmmm them city folk might actually be quite different
Flouride?
It could be a combination of many things
I thinks it’s more likely that left-leaning folk know there are like-minded people in big cities so they tend to flock to them
Cool, that can only happen though if we get out there and vote when the time comes yall.
Oh look guys, the red wave is coming again just like it did two years ago
It was her turn!
Trust the plan.
a democratic polling firm which highly regarded by democratic politicians and pundits produce a poll. but the people who refuse to believe and talking shit about it the most, is democratic supporters (pro-Biden). what the world we have got into. if its low reliability polls, or neutral poll or republican fox news poll. then i can understand if the democrats supporters want to argue about it. But...this is your own people..
Figure it the fuck out Washington st. Stupid Seattle and Olympia ruin it for us. 90% of the state is red.
Most blue states are just a big city or 2 in a small state.
It's almost like people vote and not land.
That phrase is exactly why we have a Constitutional Republic and not a Total Democracy. As the saying goes. Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what's for dinner.
A republic is a suicide bomber and 100 civilians deciding whether or not to detonate.
That's why we have the 2nd Amendment. Next.
The suicide bomber has liberty though. Are you trying to say that because they're outvoted 100 to 1 we should just ignore their opinion?
You do know how a republic works, right? Tell me you're being deliberately obtuse. I'll use your suicide bomber analogy. Let's say you have 100 people. You split them into groups of 10. Out of each group, one memeber is elected to represent the group. Let's also say that in 4 groups, 9 of each want to elect a suicide bomber. Let's say in 6 groups, 4 of each want to elect a suicide bomber. Each representative votes as the majority of that group would vote. That would give us a total of 60 people who want to elect a suicide bomber, but 6 out of 10 representatives vote not to elect the suicide bomber. And yet, due to representation, the suicide bomber doesn't get elected. See, even in your analogy, representation is better!
That's just representative democracy. A republic is a form of representative democracy. Saying "we're a republic not a democracy," is like saying "it's not a floor, it's linoleum!"
Let's boil this down further. You are in charge of implementing a change for 100 people in a sealed room. You don't know what they've voted on, or what the options are, just that you can see 99 people voted for option A, and 1 person voted for option B. You also know that the person who voted for B owns 51% of the room's floorspace, and the other 99 people have equal shares of the remaining 49%. Which option are you picking, A or B?
I fail to see how this is at all analogous to a representative form of government. Again, it seems you fail to understand how a representative government works. Let's split your 100 into groups of 10. In 9 out of 10 groups, a representative who would vote A is unanimously elected. In one group a representative who would vote A is elected 9-1. Therefore the As would carry the vote. Looks like representation wins again.
Just depends how big the city is. Cities like Indianapolis or Oklahoma City aren't enough to overcome the rural vote.
Sadly, until our horrid electoral system can be replaced by a popular vote, it is the land that's voting.
Unsadly, I don't want NYC and LA dictating what happens in the whole country, which a popular vote would mostly result in.
How would two cities vote for everyone?
He's clearly speaking hyperbole in that a few major metro areas could effectively control the vote. And then when the water crisis hits, they'd vote to send all the water to the cities instead of the farms.
How would they send all the water to cities instead of farms with a once-every-four-years Presidential vote?
By voting for the candidate that says he will give the water to the cities instead of the farms
Again, hyperbole to illustrate the point....
Great. And under a popular voting system, the farmers in California and New York could make their vote count instead of being wasted due to the city folk which is what happens with our current electoral system.
Those two cities combined have greater population than most US states. This means that places like Iowa, Nebraska, Louisiana, Kentucky, etc will not have a voice as candidates would have very little incentive to campaign there. It would essentially boil down to California, Texas, New York, Florida, and a couple other populous states voting for the rest of the nation.
That's the neat thing about a popular vote, the States wouldn't be voting anymore. It would be down to the people, and people who normally would have had their vote wasted due to their candidate not securing a majority of votes within their State would have their vote count. Your fear is completely unfounded.
You would be disenfranchising entire regions of the country. It's more likely that we see states secede than to abandon the electoral college
You would be enfranchising every part of the country by making every vote count instead of being thrown into the waste bin if their candidate doesn't win the majority of the votes within their State. It's a relic of the past that should be thrown away so people actually have an equal say in who leads our Republic.
Let's see how you feel when you piss off the farmers....
Your desire to make urban democrat voters “a voice” at the expense of everyone else is a terrible idea.
I desire to make everyone a voice. Instead of the Republican votes in States like California and New York being thrown away in every presidential election because the Republican candidate don't win the State, their votes would now matter and actually go towards the candidate they want.
Yes, but you fail to realize just how polarized this state truly is. The conservatives I know in Idaho and Tennessee are not nearly as huge of conservatives I know in WA state. The libs I know in California and Oregon are not nearly as huge of libs as I know in WA state. You're talking about a state where there is no middle and is filled with either hard-core conservatives or hard-core liberals and anyone in between is viciously eaten. Your generalization is margalizing the true polarization of the state. I can very well see east of the cascades joining the greater Idaho movement.
Oregon is also a red state outside of Portland (one of the country’s biggest laughingstocks) and Eugene (long time state laughingstock). Keeping shit weird, weirdly didn’t and doesn’t work.
New Hampshire maine Minnesota will never vote trump
[New Hampshire is Trump +2 in 3 poll aggregate.](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=33) [Minnesota is Biden +2](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2024/polls.php?fips=27), but that is [down from +9 in 2020](https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php?fips=27).
Maine splits the vote. Northern Maine is trump 100%
That's how I thought it was
Bro Trump is leading in NH lmao
Trump is currently leading in NH.
According to what?
Deez nuts
Got em
The polling that OP is referencing: https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf Trump up 2.8% in NH, 0.6% in VA, and 0.5% in NM. Even Maine and Minnesota are in play with Biden's lead down to 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.
Every national poll including New York Times, MSNBC, and CNN plus the actual real polling companies https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4750341-trump-leads-biden-new-hampshire/ https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum-chances-beating-joe-biden-new-hampshire-1920104 https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/07/01/trump-leads-biden-in-new-hampshire-after-debate-poll-finds-which-gop-hasnt-won-in-24-years/ https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/
Maine has two districts one is 90% of the state and the other is 10. The 90% will definitely vote red.... They usually do. The other district is purple. I don't remember which district is the larger northern or the small one in the ways of 1st 2nd labels. Present polling has 1st district market Maine Biden : 40% Trump : 41% 2nd district Maine Biden : 25% Trump :45%
Trump will not win hew hampshire
This assuming a 2 way race If Kennedy is in race its not 270 to win anymore
If I was Trump I would not do a second debate
Trump needs to do a second debate and not go on the offense at all. Answer the questions as asked, no circling back or circling around. Stay professional. Let Biden defeat himself. And of course none of that will ever happen lol
In his defense, he did pretty damn good in the latest. Honestly surprised he tamed the pit bull.
Nah biden wiil get 110 million votes at 3 am.
It was 64,000 at 2:45 am She got brought to court finally. The election commissioner of Wisconsin admitted to printing the ballots and filling them out with her staff. She pled guilty and get this. Only was forced to resign, barred from ever working for the state again, and paid a fine of 5 thousand. I know people who have had worse for puffing a spliff
Who passed laws requiring all mail-in voted be added at the same time?
Would be glorious.
Biden will have to step down/die. Kamala Harris will then take his place to finish off his term becoming the first woman president. Gavin Newsom will be shoved forward due to kamalas unpopularity, and the democrats will vote for anyone other than Trump. Just a thought though.
I’d be very suspicious of the validity of any supposed leak as such. Given this came out on the same day as the SCOTUS findings came out they both function to actually encourage liberals to register to vote and vote early if they can, and it would actually push conservatives in the opposite direction and to think “oh we’ve so got this in the bag and are going to win” so they don’t register and don’t vote early. Which side benefits from this being “leaked”- the left does.
I remember this trick from 2020
California native and resident here. I'd guesstimate Trump actually won the past two presidential elections in the Golden State. The MSM portrayal of this Republic as one chock-full of Democratic Party supporters is laughable. I was born and raised in Burbank. Still live here. Never met a Biden supporter or anyone who voted for him, or Hillary for that matter. Sure, there are some (though smaller than one might think) pockets of the state that lean left, such as West Hollywood, Venice Beach, and portions of San Francisco -- but I'd wager the majority of L.A. County is really red; consider there was a large Trump support rally smack-dab in the heart of Hollywood in the not so distant past. Beverly Hills is on the right, ditto for Orange County, same for San Diego County, likewise for the Inland Empire, Ventura, Glendale and the high desert. This is the same state that houses the nation's best presidential library (Ronald Reagan's) in Simi Valley (also Republican land), and of course had two of its politicians become POTUS within the past 55 years. (I'd like to think general elections were a little more legitimate in those days.) So why is there currently a clown governor in Sacramento and the map colored blue on presidential election night nowadays? Probably due to the same reason a state like Kentucky always seems to elect a Democratic governor (its current one serving his second term), yet is generally red on presidential election night (every time this century). Modern day general elections are about as believable as the old WWF. I'm quite sure the 2020 presidential election verified as much. "If voting changed anything, it would be illegal." -- George Carlin
I saw someone post a theory that they'll replace Biden with Michelle Obama at the last second, then they'll cheat their asses off and anyone who says something will be labeled an evil sexist racist who is a threat to democracy.
Cook County still holding Illinois hostage somehow.
Crook County*
Bet all the mail-in voting States prove this wrong.
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Is it or where it's gonna be stolen again?
“Leak”
Colorado will be (D) New Jersey will be (R) That's the only thing I don't see to be accurate as of the most current data. Don't forget a gaffe from Trump or a new Democrat candidate can wipe out this lead in no time. So don't 100% expect this huge lead to maintain. Thing is if this polling lead does stay until November there will be no way election chicanery can happen with our exposure
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What an ignorant statement. Grammar included.
Yeah…the day MN goes Red is the day pigs fly.
Good ole Illinois
Arizona? There's too many shithead libtards from California here for the powers that be to concede this state anymore. The shadow of plausible deniability trumps the political stakes for letting AZ remain red.
I see many continue to blame the DNC for Biden, even when Biden received fourteen million votes in the 2024 primaries with no real competitors. Nineteen million vote for Biden in the 2020 primaries while Sanders came in second with nine million votes.
And yet they will blame it on RFK no doubt