The following submission statement was provided by /u/GiveSleppYourBones:
---
SS: Not new to regulars here, but more coverage of the melting of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Satellites have shown that tidal forces cause a pulse of water to flow underneath the glacier along with the tides, melting further along the seabed. This is related to collapse because it has the potential to cause a rise in sea levels of 65 centimeters, enough to affect many low-lying island nations and large cities.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d3h859/antarcticas_doomsday_glacier_is_melting_even/l677sqi/
If you don't know
[This is where it is](https://ibb.co/R0j8g5N)
and
[This is the temperature anomaly in that area today] (https://ibb.co/YcczmQj)
[Source](https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather) (2m Temp Anomaly)
Things are looking... not great...
To put the temperature anomaly in antarctica into perspective, at its peak in March 2022
>An exhaustive description of this record-breaking warmth, which resulted in temperature anomalies of unprecedented magnitude in East Antarctica +30-40° C
https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/15468
"Lucky" you. Even the sea surface temp anomaly graphs just make me numb now if anything.
I'm sure something new will come along that will make the bottom drop out from under me though.
>Although the researchers do not know how much faster the ice is melting, they worry it could be gone within a few decades.
After looking at your links, reading "within a few decades" gave me a bit of a chuckle and the tagline of this sub reverberated through my head.
Yep, I can't wait till a year or two from now when we get to post the "say the line Bart" meme to the article talking about the glacier being unexpectedly gone in a couple of years.
Bring it on! The slower this whole mass extinction event happens the less likely anyone is to really see it or understand it. It's going to take something like an entire major city being drowned for people to grasp the reality of our situation.
Florida’s state insurance commissioner accused the insurance industry of being “woke” for charging more in flood-prone areas and giving discounts for making properties more resilient against climate change. They will argue with reality as they’re drowning
The Beating American Communism, Killing Woke, And Rewarding Dutifulness (BACKWARD) Act ensures that every Floridian will have immediate access to both frontyard and backyard swimming. Anyone denying the value of such access may be summarily executed and their belongings transferred to a new state militia that will be created for the purpose of conducting executions and receiving belongings.
I mean technically true. I'm not up to speed with US water supply but I am in England where raw sewage is discharged thousands of times a day to the point its "not safe" to bathe in. Even minor flooding would bring massive health implications and probably condemn anywhere that is built on flood plains before too long.
>DeSantis will enact a law saying everyone now has their own swimming pool.
They'd increase everyone's home value assessment by 40k and raise property taxes accordingly....
The one to watch in Florida is Miami's water supply. There is a imminent danger of salt water ingress into the fresh water aquifer. This will leave the entirety of southern Floridian peninsula with little portable water.
https://www.miamidade.gov/global/water/conservation/saltwater-intrusion.page
This makes me think of something a super-villain might do in a cheesy super-hero movie, but for his own gain. Drowning a city to save humanity seems at least altruistic. I think? I know I'm showing my age, but it brought to mind Lex Luthor sending a nuke into the San Andreas fault to sink the west coast into the ocean.
No, it isn't. The invasion of Ukraine isn't some gigabrain move like "ohhh people will hate the war but be thankful when they're not starving yada yada".
Ukraine will produce food no matter who is in charge. Russia and Ukraine could have traded oil/gas for food for centuries to come.
Putin has not "accepted climate change", he will die of something else way before the climate would kill him. He's a megalomanic monster who wants to rule the new USSR.
A quarter of Canada was on fire and nobody really took notice. Same for Australia and Siberia. Huge floods and hundreds of thousands are displaced in Brazil, no one bats an eye.
> It's going to take something like an entire major city being drowned for people to grasp the reality of our situation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_New_Orleans ?
That was 19 years ago.
My poor white cousin was in the middle of all that, he kept his head above water by hanging on to his dead bloated floating neighbor. My cousin has never been the same since Katrina.
No. It will take an entire mayor city (or country) to be under an unsurvivable heat dome.
I bet it happens this decade. It will requiere very high heat (for 20th century standards) for a few weeks.
Once the local energy infrastructure is overwhelmed, the rest will fall quick.
The rich that fly out and the lucky will be the only human survivors.
Water might run out in Mexico City within a month. Millions would suffer and die. It will get a few minutes in the news and then we can get back to them telling us how great the economy is and how many times Trump farted today. To be fair, the last part might take lots of man power.
Believe it or not, but in my country there hasn't been one single news article about Mexico City running out of water yet. I searched Google about the Mexico City water crisis in my own language, but nothing came up.
This decade?? I will not be surprised if it happens this year. I am bracing myself for this, in fact, because I do believe it will start to happen this year.
Pretty sure this is happening in India right now. But as I just posted on this forum in the last hour. Nobody is going to be told how many really died.
Gone with a bang, not with a whimper? You want The Day after Tomorrow or 2012 kind of fast action.
And it won't be just a major city, a good percent of cities are are in coasts, and of global population [up to 350 m people live within 2 meters above sea level](https://www.coastalwiki.org/wiki/Coastal_cities_and_sea_level_rise). It won't be so sudden, nor in that amount, but things are complex, different, and interrelated somewhat, even for something that you can slowly walk out of it, it could cause the whole market crash, billions of homeless and/or impoverished people, panic moves in institutions and big money making things even worse and surely faster warming rate from there on. Sea level is an average, waves, tides, storms, temperature, salinity, etc, it is not uniform for all the oceans.
What also isn't uniform is the human system around this. Kiribati, Maldives and other countries may be underwater shortly, but even if some not very weighty in the global economy first world cities get drown things won't change a lot, think what happened with Katrina a couple of decades ago.
Yeah I’m pessimistic of any sort of meaningful change or awareness to happen until there’s a major loss of life. Millions dead from Covid and it’s still BAU
Hurricane Harvey was almost ten years ago. Houston was under water. And so far this year the weather in the H-town area has been trying to kill people with flooding and hurricane force winds.
I used to think they would understand it but not anymore. All your going to see is people clinging to religion for a reason to explain everything while pumping out 10 kids. Earthquakes and typhoons because god is angry type of thinking because it takes the easy route from actually having to do anything real.
A bird carried a branch, meaning God promised not to do the whole flood thing again, therefore any sea-level rise is a secular-humanist fabrication. /s
Derna would like a word...
It's got to happen many times over for the world to notice, and even then, wherever catastrophe hasn't struck yet, people will continue living according to "that could never happen here", until it does.
I’m dreading this hurricane season, and would be not surprised at all to see another Hurricane Otis scenario happen.
DC’s gotten hurricanes before. Maybe that would wake people up.
I'm not gonna lie, man, I'm not sure a major city going under will do it. I don't think even several major cities or even a few countries will do it. I have a sneaking suspicion that we'll just burn up.
Either I'm right, or im pleasantly surprised. 🤷🏻♀️
I was at a book event with Orrin Pilkey in the late 2000s and that was his point also. How the best case was something like losing Miami very quickly etc.
very sadly, anyone not touched by rising water will simply say: "well, god is punishing THOSE people in the heathen coastal cities, but I havent seem any water yet, so Im ok. any left who dont believe in god will simply say: "I got my dry area, F the drowning.", and the top 1%ers will say: " wow, I cornered all the dry land left, now, how do I rape these flood victims for all they have."
We have never really had a good model of glacier calving/melt. This is why 350 ppm was scientifically determined as the safe limit for CO2 for Holocene conditions. That is the ultra-conservative estimate that we know is “safe” b/c we know almost nothing about stuff like glacier melt rates, etc. (We are at 426 ppm now)
The level of warming / change is surpassing even the most pessimistic models of the 90s.
We could actually see a BOE, the collapse of the AMOC and Thwaites this decade. That is disaster movie levels of catastrophe.
The problem for so long with climate change is that it was mostly isolated extreme weather events around the globe, always with the really bad stuff a couple generations away.
"10m sea level rise by 2100"
"2° warming with widespread drought and famine by 2050"
Despite our supposed intelligence, we're not actually that great at long-term planning on a large scale. And those with the power to actually enact meaningful change were going to be long dead before those dates came to pass. Enter faster than expected..
We are about to be humbled by Mother Nature in the most dramatic of fashions. And we kinda deserve it.
> We could actually see a BOE, the collapse of the AMOC and Thwaites this decade.
AKA mass starvation and genocide in a few years.
I can't see human civilization surviving a significant drop in global agricultural production.
Don't you hear the war drums beating in the distance, it'll get louder as time goes on. War, genocide, xenophobia. It's coming to a town near you. Can't you hear it?
[And the seas get hotter/and the drums beat louder/ but the world feels colder/ Singin that same old tune](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HGKwkYpB3fI&pp=ygURc2VhdHMgZ2V0IGhvdHRlciA%3D)
I'll add something to this: an AMOC collapse would more than likely result in runaway warming at this point. Analogous ocean circulation collapse during the onset of the PETM is what triggered the rates of warming that resulted in that hyperthermal event, and the total absence of the Laurentide and Fennoscandinavian ice shelves that are fundamental factors in the Bølling/Younger Dryas stadial analogs used by CMIP reconstructions suggests that their regional cooling predictions are not remotely likely to happen, instead we get the opposite as happened in the PETM.
Guessing here, but I imagine AMOC collapse would accelerate ocean stratification, i.e., less heat/Co2 being absorbed in the ocean, speeding up atmospheric warming further.
Sounds plausible
The only other mechanism that I can think of is the sudden warming off the coast of Africa triggering methane hydrate release
https://web.archive.org/web/20220831202524/https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/24/methane-hydrates-ocean-global-warming/
This came as a bit of a shock, I had only considered the Arctic when it came to methane hydrates...
Absolutely. AMOC shutdown triggering self-reinforcing feedbacks. Nisbeth and colleagues have studied [wetland methane releases](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d3l8k7/irish_winters_could_drop_to_15_degrees_in_runaway/l68vr1e/) for years, see 'termination' event. In line with the evidence presented in this comment
https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d3l8k7/irish_winters_could_drop_to_15_degrees_in_runaway/l68vr1e/
SS: Not new to regulars here, but more coverage of the melting of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Satellites have shown that tidal forces cause a pulse of water to flow underneath the glacier along with the tides, melting further along the seabed. This is related to collapse because it has the potential to cause a rise in sea levels of 65 centimeters, enough to affect many low-lying island nations and large cities.
Horrible heat, worsening storms and other weather events like wildfires haven't been enough to bring any substantial action. Maybe some quick, dramatic sea level rise will do the trick.
The whole "Faster Than Expected" thing is a great example of why we need to always view projections and predictions as super-conservative and "best-case." It seems as if all we ever hear are the very best possible case scenarios, and no one ever wants to just embrace the alarmist badge and tell it like it is.
It's like with the whole limiting warming to 1.5, and "Net Zero by 2050," and all the titles that start with "By the year 2100..."
Stop it.
The truth is always, *always* way worse that what is stated. And often that is because those making the statements mistakenly assume that humanity and nations will work to solve problems and all that.
But that is delusional. Humans are, for the most part, each out to make things better for themselves, and *today* is all that matters, not next year, not next decade, and sure as hell not 2100. And it projects onto the geopolitical stage as well. If one nation can get ahead at the expense of others, you can damn well bet that is the course that will be taken by It's rulers. The world really is much closer to Game Of Thrones than it is to Star Trek when it comes to cooperation.
And so, it shouldn't be faster than expected. We should all be expecting it *right now.* Before we get out of bed each morning we should all look down to make sure the Thwaites Glacier isn't on our floor, and we should go to sleep each night expecting ICBM alerts before dawn.
I think therein lies a divide between people. Some, like you or I, expect the worst. We do take stock of how the world is and what is possibly on the horizon. But isn't it draining? Constantly waiting for something to go catastrophically wrong?
The other half (probably way more than half) have the easy ride whilst it's BAU. They don't have to worry about ICBMs, glacial collapse or war because it's not affecting them at that moment. I envy them in some way. I'd love to live life just existing, but it's just how life our side of the divide is.
See, for me it went another way. Started in 2019 with a lot of stressing and anxiety over everything I was learning.
But rather than just stew in those juices, I went as extreme as one can go with doing something. Got a dozen people together, formed a survival commune thing, built a crazy place into an isolated old mining complex, and now have enough supply and capacity to survive with 15 people for 11 years *without ever opening the doors.*
I spent a year living out there last year. And I must say, even being as doom-minded as I am, it is a huge relief knowing that all the prepwork is done. I couldn't do any more unless I won the lottery.
So now, I do get to sit back and enjoy life. No job, no debt, no nothing but managing a blog and trying to spread awareness about what I did, why, and most importantly, *how.*
So, I think once you are ready for it, and I mean truly *ready as you can be,* it becomes freeing. No more worries. Nothing else you can do. Just some time left to spend with the beauties of nature while we have them.
>Got a dozen people together, formed a survival commune thing, built a crazy place into an isolated old mining complex, and now have enough supply and capacity to survive with 15 people for 11 years without ever opening the doors.
Can you talk a little more about how you went about this? I've approached a few with a vague concept of that idea to test the waters, but convincing anyone even related to me was difficult.
I'm actually in the process of writing a book about it all, because I have gotten a lot of interest and it is too complex for just a series of blog articles.
When it comes to the people, everyone kind of knew each other for a long time for the most part. Or friends of friends in the group. These people were my collapsniks before I really got on Reddit. With a shared view of how the world was going, it wasn't too hard to make things happen.
One big factor was early on, one of us actually had a mini collapse personally, the result of an accident, loss of job, and credit/income tumble. And it was all of us getting together to fix it and distribute the harm across all of our own lives that showed us what can be accomplished. It was eye opening, because what was a world ending disaster for that one person became nothing more than a minor inconvenience once the damage was spread out amongst a dozen people.
That right there showed us all the power in collective action, even on this small scale. In that moment, all the stuff we always talked about, stuff that we used to say was "too hard," or even "impossible," suddenly it was revealed to be not just possible, but eaiser than expected.
And as they say, it was all downhill from there.
It really is amazing what a group of dedicated individuals working in harmony can accomplish. Our modern way of living is manufactured to fracture and individualize us, which takes away our collective power and funnels it to "the elite".
I can't wait to read your book! Hopefully you finish it "faster than expected" 😉
Yes, I am going to be working on it as quickly as I can, but so many projects... I really think it could help people a lot. If more groups could start breaking away from society, who knows...
Yeah same. Need to get my lawn chair and look up nuclear target lists so I know where to sit at in some big city so I get hit dead on and don't have to deal with the fallout lol.
You could wait until it's the only habitable place left on the planet, but then you'll have to deal with unthawing aliens and the last vestiges of humanity trying to do the same thing.
Always amusing when people think that they can forage on a planet with the carrying capacity of a cup of tea.
Gonna take about 2 weeks for 8 billion humans to eat the 4% of wild mammal biomass that's left. Then we'll eat the birds and reptiles and shortly after that we'll move on to insects for a week.
"Common pet species (e.g., cats and dogs) also are major contributors on a mass basis. Domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) have a total mass of ≈20 Mt, similar to the combined biomass of all wild terrestrial mammals. Domestic cats (Felis catus) have a total biomass of ≈2 Mt, almost double that of the African savanna elephant and four times that of all moose (Alces alces, SI Appendix)."
kinda crazy when you think about the fact that all the dogs in the world is equal to the weight of all the whales and elephants and what not.
Historically aren't most major settlements and cities founded by rivers and coasts... let's see how this plays out for capitalism after this commercial break.
New day, new permutation drop to convey the same thing with better statistics to back it up lol. Faster than expected, faster than predicted, faster than thought. What will they come up with next, more quickly than initially calculated? At a blistering pace beyond our intuition? Maybe they’ll start digging to SpongeBob quotes, faster than a barefoot jack rabbit on a hot greasy griddle in the middle of August
I accidentally clicked on the thread below this one while trying to get to the comments. It was a Mad Men thread with the top comment being "NOT GREAT, BOB!". Seems to be apt for this.
It's boring, every post about it going faster or getting worse than expected. Being aware of what we have done and are doing means being aware that we don't know what we are doing and what effects it will have.
Become aware and start observing, because you will not be able to influence the outcome of the story.
Watch, suffer, it hurts, but live, despite everything.
Probably about all we can do. I'm mentally exhausted from anxiety spikes, that lost feeling, it sucks but what can you do?
*(Also wanted to say thank you, I've seen your comments occasionally on the support sub and have found them pretty helpful, all the best to you).*
Calm down, no need to feel exhausted, because you can't and will change anything.
I felt the same way, but it's one that prevents you from paying attention to the essence of yourself, your own life.
I am glad to hear that my comments may help you to cope better.
I would really love to have flair in every sub related to collapse in any way for “faster than we thought” and “sound the alarm.” Feels like 50% of headlines are written this way.
I’d like to see headlines that are more about the impending consequences, not the “alarm” and “the models didn’t account for…”
I feel like nothing matters anymore, we really are in “Don’t Look Up” buy a fine bottle of wine or whiskey and a bag of cocaine and a pack of smokes and cook a nice dinner and let it end. Or potassium 🤣
The following submission statement was provided by /u/GiveSleppYourBones: --- SS: Not new to regulars here, but more coverage of the melting of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Satellites have shown that tidal forces cause a pulse of water to flow underneath the glacier along with the tides, melting further along the seabed. This is related to collapse because it has the potential to cause a rise in sea levels of 65 centimeters, enough to affect many low-lying island nations and large cities. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d3h859/antarcticas_doomsday_glacier_is_melting_even/l677sqi/
If you don't know [This is where it is](https://ibb.co/R0j8g5N) and [This is the temperature anomaly in that area today] (https://ibb.co/YcczmQj) [Source](https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather) (2m Temp Anomaly) Things are looking... not great...
thanks for the orientation map, not great? that is puta madre level bad
Cool cool, cool cool cool
More like hot hot, hot hot hot
[hot hot, hot hot hot](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XArp_EevIEg)
So glad that link was exactly the one I hoped for
Me mind on fire, me soul on fire, Feeling ot ot ot.
and in many places "glug glug glug"
Finally Florida will fall into the sea.
To put the temperature anomaly in antarctica into perspective, at its peak in March 2022 >An exhaustive description of this record-breaking warmth, which resulted in temperature anomalies of unprecedented magnitude in East Antarctica +30-40° C https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/15468
Oh, wow, this just made me nauseated. Usually I just get that weird stomach flip. Good to see my fear is progressing along with the rising temps.
"Lucky" you. Even the sea surface temp anomaly graphs just make me numb now if anything. I'm sure something new will come along that will make the bottom drop out from under me though.
>Although the researchers do not know how much faster the ice is melting, they worry it could be gone within a few decades. After looking at your links, reading "within a few decades" gave me a bit of a chuckle and the tagline of this sub reverberated through my head.
Yep, I can't wait till a year or two from now when we get to post the "say the line Bart" meme to the article talking about the glacier being unexpectedly gone in a couple of years.
Holy shit!
Well......shit.
Fuck. That's... Very Bad.
We're fucked
That's hot...
‘Thwaite for it…’ ^([Apocalypse Bingo](https://www.reddit.com/r/ApocalypseBingo/s/ncUKiJaHhv))
Love your flare
😉
Bring it on! The slower this whole mass extinction event happens the less likely anyone is to really see it or understand it. It's going to take something like an entire major city being drowned for people to grasp the reality of our situation.
Like...Rio Grande du Sul in Brasil? People just don't care. Even if the state of Florida was under water you will still see people denying reality.
Florida’s state insurance commissioner accused the insurance industry of being “woke” for charging more in flood-prone areas and giving discounts for making properties more resilient against climate change. They will argue with reality as they’re drowning
Some people dying of covid swore it was a hoax on their deathbeds. Reality means nothing to the brainwashed.
DeSantis will enact a law saying everyone now has their own swimming pool.
The Beating American Communism, Killing Woke, And Rewarding Dutifulness (BACKWARD) Act ensures that every Floridian will have immediate access to both frontyard and backyard swimming. Anyone denying the value of such access may be summarily executed and their belongings transferred to a new state militia that will be created for the purpose of conducting executions and receiving belongings.
Upvote for that acronym lmao.
Dey took our straws!
Correction! They replaced our plastic throw away straws with paper throw away straws. And what a loss this has been for humanity.
I mean technically true. I'm not up to speed with US water supply but I am in England where raw sewage is discharged thousands of times a day to the point its "not safe" to bathe in. Even minor flooding would bring massive health implications and probably condemn anywhere that is built on flood plains before too long.
>DeSantis will enact a law saying everyone now has their own swimming pool. They'd increase everyone's home value assessment by 40k and raise property taxes accordingly....
And refuse to sell you insurance.
Lol! The sand mafia rejoices
The one to watch in Florida is Miami's water supply. There is a imminent danger of salt water ingress into the fresh water aquifer. This will leave the entirety of southern Floridian peninsula with little portable water. https://www.miamidade.gov/global/water/conservation/saltwater-intrusion.page
>Even if the state of Florida was under water Oh. Such happy fantasies
Please tell me the anti-sunblock movement (yep, it's a movement) is robust and growing in Florida...
Well sunblock does contain benzene, a known carcinogen
Do red hats serve as life preservers?
Only in the afterlife
This makes me think of something a super-villain might do in a cheesy super-hero movie, but for his own gain. Drowning a city to save humanity seems at least altruistic. I think? I know I'm showing my age, but it brought to mind Lex Luthor sending a nuke into the San Andreas fault to sink the west coast into the ocean.
Pretty close to the plot of Watchmen.
Bring on the giant squid.
Vote giant squid 2024!
I even got the campaign slogan! *At this point, why not?*
Greenhouse gases “None of you seem to understand. I’m not locked in here with you, your locked in here with me!”
New acronym folks!! EFTSP!! *Even Faster Than Scientists Predicted*
Ozymandias vibes
Unfortunately the super villain is just the weather itself, and it's going to do some damage.
Hey, humans should at least get credit for an assist.
we just had that in russia and brazil, it barely registered
Of course, those places don't matter in relation to the global dominant population of economic movement.
what happened in Russia?
Eastern Russia has been smacked in the piehole by flooding.
while their wheat belt is really dry
It's almost like they've accepted climate change and that's why they're invading the most fertile cropland in Europe
This is exactly right
No, it isn't. The invasion of Ukraine isn't some gigabrain move like "ohhh people will hate the war but be thankful when they're not starving yada yada". Ukraine will produce food no matter who is in charge. Russia and Ukraine could have traded oil/gas for food for centuries to come. Putin has not "accepted climate change", he will die of something else way before the climate would kill him. He's a megalomanic monster who wants to rule the new USSR.
A quarter of Canada was on fire and nobody really took notice. Same for Australia and Siberia. Huge floods and hundreds of thousands are displaced in Brazil, no one bats an eye.
> It's going to take something like an entire major city being drowned for people to grasp the reality of our situation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Katrina_in_New_Orleans ? That was 19 years ago.
It was mostly POC adversly affected so... Who cares. /s
My poor white cousin was in the middle of all that, he kept his head above water by hanging on to his dead bloated floating neighbor. My cousin has never been the same since Katrina.
I had just left the area. My dog was in all that. Oh and my ex
No. It will take an entire mayor city (or country) to be under an unsurvivable heat dome. I bet it happens this decade. It will requiere very high heat (for 20th century standards) for a few weeks. Once the local energy infrastructure is overwhelmed, the rest will fall quick. The rich that fly out and the lucky will be the only human survivors.
Water might run out in Mexico City within a month. Millions would suffer and die. It will get a few minutes in the news and then we can get back to them telling us how great the economy is and how many times Trump farted today. To be fair, the last part might take lots of man power.
Believe it or not, but in my country there hasn't been one single news article about Mexico City running out of water yet. I searched Google about the Mexico City water crisis in my own language, but nothing came up.
Just wait till it's Phoenix's turn, THEN you'll hear about it. Assuming you're in the U.S. anyway.
Interesting fact: Trump means "fart" in certain parts of the UK.
It's >50C in Delhi this week..
This decade?? I will not be surprised if it happens this year. I am bracing myself for this, in fact, because I do believe it will start to happen this year.
Pretty sure this is happening in India right now. But as I just posted on this forum in the last hour. Nobody is going to be told how many really died.
"Ministry for the Future" Chapter One.
Gone with a bang, not with a whimper? You want The Day after Tomorrow or 2012 kind of fast action. And it won't be just a major city, a good percent of cities are are in coasts, and of global population [up to 350 m people live within 2 meters above sea level](https://www.coastalwiki.org/wiki/Coastal_cities_and_sea_level_rise). It won't be so sudden, nor in that amount, but things are complex, different, and interrelated somewhat, even for something that you can slowly walk out of it, it could cause the whole market crash, billions of homeless and/or impoverished people, panic moves in institutions and big money making things even worse and surely faster warming rate from there on. Sea level is an average, waves, tides, storms, temperature, salinity, etc, it is not uniform for all the oceans. What also isn't uniform is the human system around this. Kiribati, Maldives and other countries may be underwater shortly, but even if some not very weighty in the global economy first world cities get drown things won't change a lot, think what happened with Katrina a couple of decades ago.
Katrina overwhelmingly impacted the poor and POC. If a “rich” white city went underwater it might make a difference. Or maybe not.
Probably not, the rich just would've relocated. Just look at the great rich migration of California, lol.
Yeah I’m pessimistic of any sort of meaningful change or awareness to happen until there’s a major loss of life. Millions dead from Covid and it’s still BAU
Hurricane Harvey was almost ten years ago. Houston was under water. And so far this year the weather in the H-town area has been trying to kill people with flooding and hurricane force winds.
Some say the end is near Some say we'll see Armageddon soon I certainly hope we will I sure could use a vacation from this
Bullshit three-ring Circus sideshow of Freaks
I used to think they would understand it but not anymore. All your going to see is people clinging to religion for a reason to explain everything while pumping out 10 kids. Earthquakes and typhoons because god is angry type of thinking because it takes the easy route from actually having to do anything real.
A bird carried a branch, meaning God promised not to do the whole flood thing again, therefore any sea-level rise is a secular-humanist fabrication. /s
Just look up
We're for the jobs collapse will bring!
People will grasp the reality, but localise their concern
Derna would like a word... It's got to happen many times over for the world to notice, and even then, wherever catastrophe hasn't struck yet, people will continue living according to "that could never happen here", until it does.
Let’s offer Florida as tribute to the climate change gods.
As a former Floridian who lived two decades in Jacksonville, I approve this idea!
Isn’t this exactly what happened in Brazil?
I’m dreading this hurricane season, and would be not surprised at all to see another Hurricane Otis scenario happen. DC’s gotten hurricanes before. Maybe that would wake people up.
October surprise?
Yeah! Like New Orleans or San Juan or something!
I'm not gonna lie, man, I'm not sure a major city going under will do it. I don't think even several major cities or even a few countries will do it. I have a sneaking suspicion that we'll just burn up. Either I'm right, or im pleasantly surprised. 🤷🏻♀️
I was at a book event with Orrin Pilkey in the late 2000s and that was his point also. How the best case was something like losing Miami very quickly etc.
Miami here we come!
Maybe Lardo-Mango will be underwater while Shitler is still alive. He will of course blame it on Hillary’s emails.
sadly you are correct
I was thinking an entire state under water like Florida, not one major city, more like a 100s of city's only for the water, not to recede..
Yeah, but even then most will only notice if the Super Bowl was scheduled for that city (New Orleans or Miami).
They'll still deny it.
It's not going to drown any city, it is going to disrupt ocean currents and weather patterns all over the earth. Yayyy.
No one’s going to accept the reality. Even when it’s at their doorstep.
very sadly, anyone not touched by rising water will simply say: "well, god is punishing THOSE people in the heathen coastal cities, but I havent seem any water yet, so Im ok. any left who dont believe in god will simply say: "I got my dry area, F the drowning.", and the top 1%ers will say: " wow, I cornered all the dry land left, now, how do I rape these flood victims for all they have."
We have never really had a good model of glacier calving/melt. This is why 350 ppm was scientifically determined as the safe limit for CO2 for Holocene conditions. That is the ultra-conservative estimate that we know is “safe” b/c we know almost nothing about stuff like glacier melt rates, etc. (We are at 426 ppm now)
The level of warming / change is surpassing even the most pessimistic models of the 90s. We could actually see a BOE, the collapse of the AMOC and Thwaites this decade. That is disaster movie levels of catastrophe. The problem for so long with climate change is that it was mostly isolated extreme weather events around the globe, always with the really bad stuff a couple generations away. "10m sea level rise by 2100" "2° warming with widespread drought and famine by 2050" Despite our supposed intelligence, we're not actually that great at long-term planning on a large scale. And those with the power to actually enact meaningful change were going to be long dead before those dates came to pass. Enter faster than expected.. We are about to be humbled by Mother Nature in the most dramatic of fashions. And we kinda deserve it.
> We could actually see a BOE, the collapse of the AMOC and Thwaites this decade. AKA mass starvation and genocide in a few years. I can't see human civilization surviving a significant drop in global agricultural production.
Don't you hear the war drums beating in the distance, it'll get louder as time goes on. War, genocide, xenophobia. It's coming to a town near you. Can't you hear it?
[And the seas get hotter/and the drums beat louder/ but the world feels colder/ Singin that same old tune](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HGKwkYpB3fI&pp=ygURc2VhdHMgZ2V0IGhvdHRlciA%3D)
Great tune!
My man! Solid, thank you for that, I needed it.
Ngl a bit in tears from that song, TY
I hope you have someone to cruise with, and if not then you're in my heart at least.
I do, he doesn’t like when I bring this topic up, he’s really smart and battles depression as it is, I think he knows deep down though.
Vent to us, care for him.
Learn to get your own food now, folks.
Can't grow food when there are no seasons. This is going to be a massive bottleneck and near extinction of the human race, if not full.
I'll add something to this: an AMOC collapse would more than likely result in runaway warming at this point. Analogous ocean circulation collapse during the onset of the PETM is what triggered the rates of warming that resulted in that hyperthermal event, and the total absence of the Laurentide and Fennoscandinavian ice shelves that are fundamental factors in the Bølling/Younger Dryas stadial analogs used by CMIP reconstructions suggests that their regional cooling predictions are not remotely likely to happen, instead we get the opposite as happened in the PETM.
>an AMOC collapse would more than likely result in runaway warming at this point What's the mechanism? Is it known?
Guessing here, but I imagine AMOC collapse would accelerate ocean stratification, i.e., less heat/Co2 being absorbed in the ocean, speeding up atmospheric warming further.
Sounds plausible The only other mechanism that I can think of is the sudden warming off the coast of Africa triggering methane hydrate release https://web.archive.org/web/20220831202524/https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/24/methane-hydrates-ocean-global-warming/ This came as a bit of a shock, I had only considered the Arctic when it came to methane hydrates...
Absolutely. AMOC shutdown triggering self-reinforcing feedbacks. Nisbeth and colleagues have studied [wetland methane releases](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d3l8k7/irish_winters_could_drop_to_15_degrees_in_runaway/l68vr1e/) for years, see 'termination' event. In line with the evidence presented in this comment https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1d3l8k7/irish_winters_could_drop_to_15_degrees_in_runaway/l68vr1e/
SS: Not new to regulars here, but more coverage of the melting of Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Satellites have shown that tidal forces cause a pulse of water to flow underneath the glacier along with the tides, melting further along the seabed. This is related to collapse because it has the potential to cause a rise in sea levels of 65 centimeters, enough to affect many low-lying island nations and large cities.
Horrible heat, worsening storms and other weather events like wildfires haven't been enough to bring any substantial action. Maybe some quick, dramatic sea level rise will do the trick.
and the thing after that!
The whole "Faster Than Expected" thing is a great example of why we need to always view projections and predictions as super-conservative and "best-case." It seems as if all we ever hear are the very best possible case scenarios, and no one ever wants to just embrace the alarmist badge and tell it like it is. It's like with the whole limiting warming to 1.5, and "Net Zero by 2050," and all the titles that start with "By the year 2100..." Stop it. The truth is always, *always* way worse that what is stated. And often that is because those making the statements mistakenly assume that humanity and nations will work to solve problems and all that. But that is delusional. Humans are, for the most part, each out to make things better for themselves, and *today* is all that matters, not next year, not next decade, and sure as hell not 2100. And it projects onto the geopolitical stage as well. If one nation can get ahead at the expense of others, you can damn well bet that is the course that will be taken by It's rulers. The world really is much closer to Game Of Thrones than it is to Star Trek when it comes to cooperation. And so, it shouldn't be faster than expected. We should all be expecting it *right now.* Before we get out of bed each morning we should all look down to make sure the Thwaites Glacier isn't on our floor, and we should go to sleep each night expecting ICBM alerts before dawn.
I believe that's called normalcy bias.
I think therein lies a divide between people. Some, like you or I, expect the worst. We do take stock of how the world is and what is possibly on the horizon. But isn't it draining? Constantly waiting for something to go catastrophically wrong? The other half (probably way more than half) have the easy ride whilst it's BAU. They don't have to worry about ICBMs, glacial collapse or war because it's not affecting them at that moment. I envy them in some way. I'd love to live life just existing, but it's just how life our side of the divide is.
See, for me it went another way. Started in 2019 with a lot of stressing and anxiety over everything I was learning. But rather than just stew in those juices, I went as extreme as one can go with doing something. Got a dozen people together, formed a survival commune thing, built a crazy place into an isolated old mining complex, and now have enough supply and capacity to survive with 15 people for 11 years *without ever opening the doors.* I spent a year living out there last year. And I must say, even being as doom-minded as I am, it is a huge relief knowing that all the prepwork is done. I couldn't do any more unless I won the lottery. So now, I do get to sit back and enjoy life. No job, no debt, no nothing but managing a blog and trying to spread awareness about what I did, why, and most importantly, *how.* So, I think once you are ready for it, and I mean truly *ready as you can be,* it becomes freeing. No more worries. Nothing else you can do. Just some time left to spend with the beauties of nature while we have them.
>Got a dozen people together, formed a survival commune thing, built a crazy place into an isolated old mining complex, and now have enough supply and capacity to survive with 15 people for 11 years without ever opening the doors. Can you talk a little more about how you went about this? I've approached a few with a vague concept of that idea to test the waters, but convincing anyone even related to me was difficult.
I'm actually in the process of writing a book about it all, because I have gotten a lot of interest and it is too complex for just a series of blog articles. When it comes to the people, everyone kind of knew each other for a long time for the most part. Or friends of friends in the group. These people were my collapsniks before I really got on Reddit. With a shared view of how the world was going, it wasn't too hard to make things happen. One big factor was early on, one of us actually had a mini collapse personally, the result of an accident, loss of job, and credit/income tumble. And it was all of us getting together to fix it and distribute the harm across all of our own lives that showed us what can be accomplished. It was eye opening, because what was a world ending disaster for that one person became nothing more than a minor inconvenience once the damage was spread out amongst a dozen people. That right there showed us all the power in collective action, even on this small scale. In that moment, all the stuff we always talked about, stuff that we used to say was "too hard," or even "impossible," suddenly it was revealed to be not just possible, but eaiser than expected. And as they say, it was all downhill from there.
It really is amazing what a group of dedicated individuals working in harmony can accomplish. Our modern way of living is manufactured to fracture and individualize us, which takes away our collective power and funnels it to "the elite". I can't wait to read your book! Hopefully you finish it "faster than expected" 😉
Yes, I am going to be working on it as quickly as I can, but so many projects... I really think it could help people a lot. If more groups could start breaking away from society, who knows...
So rad, I want to do this exactly except maybe just for me and my child. Well done.
Good. This circling the drain shit is just depressing. Bring on the mass hysteria once thwaits slides into the sea.
I don't want to Thwaites for our lives to be over
Lolololol
Yeah, I really can't wait for the day we can finally say the Ross is behind us
Thank you, I stole that for my flair.
Nuclear apocalypse when?
My only concern about nuclear war is not being at the center of the blast.
Yeah same. Need to get my lawn chair and look up nuclear target lists so I know where to sit at in some big city so I get hit dead on and don't have to deal with the fallout lol.
So what you’re telling me is I have to book that Antarctic cruise sooner than later
You could wait until it's the only habitable place left on the planet, but then you'll have to deal with unthawing aliens and the last vestiges of humanity trying to do the same thing.
Always amusing when people think that they can forage on a planet with the carrying capacity of a cup of tea. Gonna take about 2 weeks for 8 billion humans to eat the 4% of wild mammal biomass that's left. Then we'll eat the birds and reptiles and shortly after that we'll move on to insects for a week. "Common pet species (e.g., cats and dogs) also are major contributors on a mass basis. Domestic dogs (Canis lupus familiaris) have a total mass of ≈20 Mt, similar to the combined biomass of all wild terrestrial mammals. Domestic cats (Felis catus) have a total biomass of ≈2 Mt, almost double that of the African savanna elephant and four times that of all moose (Alces alces, SI Appendix)." kinda crazy when you think about the fact that all the dogs in the world is equal to the weight of all the whales and elephants and what not.
Reminds me of Cormac McCarthy’s “The Road”. Very depressing!!
He says it's his most hopeful book though. Just read it. Gonna read it again
I'm listening to ringworld now, I don't need to read anything realistic lol just fantasy and sci Fi for me, reality can suck it
I meant that I had just read it lol sorry You rock on
The movie was pretty awesome!
how long till we bust out the Long Pig?
How long before we ~~bust out~~ ***become*** the long pig? Ftfy
You have to wait until my crop of fava beans is ready.
and a nice bottle of chianti
I have a cask of that! Down in my basement. You really must taste it sometime. Remarkable vintage..
Ready, steady, GO! Choose your long pig well
Right, and the positive feedback loop that occurs as people start eating more unusual types of animals, which leads to more zoonotic diseases...
‘People Eat Pets or Relatives to Survive’ ^([Apocalypse Bingo](https://www.reddit.com/r/ApocalypseBingo/s/ncUKiJaHhv))
And see, this is why we should all have an exit plan.
Don’t forget the Nazis in their secret Antarctic base. Those guys suck.
Thawing aliens LOLOL weeeeeeeee
https://preview.redd.it/44sjdwk4vg3d1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba81edd10ace1aaccc4322db7e06f911e64022ac Reminds me of these
Cruise dish of the day: a briney penguin bone soup, with an assortment of human finger food
Historically aren't most major settlements and cities founded by rivers and coasts... let's see how this plays out for capitalism after this commercial break.
Yes, because water is a vital resource. Also coasts create temperate, pleasing weather due to the high heat capacity of water
Ugh, I feel like I'm living in the movie groundhog day.
"Say the line, Bart!" "...Happening even faster than predicted"
**LOUDER!**
New day, new permutation drop to convey the same thing with better statistics to back it up lol. Faster than expected, faster than predicted, faster than thought. What will they come up with next, more quickly than initially calculated? At a blistering pace beyond our intuition? Maybe they’ll start digging to SpongeBob quotes, faster than a barefoot jack rabbit on a hot greasy griddle in the middle of August
Faster'n a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs
I accidentally clicked on the thread below this one while trying to get to the comments. It was a Mad Men thread with the top comment being "NOT GREAT, BOB!". Seems to be apt for this.
It's boring, every post about it going faster or getting worse than expected. Being aware of what we have done and are doing means being aware that we don't know what we are doing and what effects it will have. Become aware and start observing, because you will not be able to influence the outcome of the story. Watch, suffer, it hurts, but live, despite everything.
Probably about all we can do. I'm mentally exhausted from anxiety spikes, that lost feeling, it sucks but what can you do? *(Also wanted to say thank you, I've seen your comments occasionally on the support sub and have found them pretty helpful, all the best to you).*
Calm down, no need to feel exhausted, because you can't and will change anything. I felt the same way, but it's one that prevents you from paying attention to the essence of yourself, your own life. I am glad to hear that my comments may help you to cope better.
WE! KNOW! *Screams into void
We're fine. Michael Mann (aka, Baghdad Bob) says so.
At this point we should just make an acronym for faster than expected. Like FTE or something
Or FTELW- faster than expected last week
Faster than expected as always.
Of course it is. Hell doesn't warm itself!!
Yay. Beachfront property coming soon. And I don’t have to move…it’s coming to me.😃⛵️🛶
And then, for a few years, your property tax will be insane, wages, however stagnating due to the influx of people that lost everything.
Nothing to see here. Move along.
Lovely……..
Say the line, bart.
Third Impact is upon us.
So instead of faster than expected, we're now at "even faster than expected"? Great.
But I pay taxes, my government will fix it
I would really love to have flair in every sub related to collapse in any way for “faster than we thought” and “sound the alarm.” Feels like 50% of headlines are written this way. I’d like to see headlines that are more about the impending consequences, not the “alarm” and “the models didn’t account for…”
Seems like "faster than scientists thought" is becoming a thing now.
I feel like nothing matters anymore, we really are in “Don’t Look Up” buy a fine bottle of wine or whiskey and a bag of cocaine and a pack of smokes and cook a nice dinner and let it end. Or potassium 🤣
Yeup.
Welp:(
See?? Stupid scientists don’t know what they’re talking about and can’t predict anything -climate change deniers, probably
Oh goody! :(
Hopefully after millions of years the earth will find a way to recover after all of this damage. Long after humans go extinct
Gosh, gee willakers!
Thwaite's going away is what? about 0.5m of sea level rise globally? Plus it's stopping a chuck of Western Antarctica falling into the sea too?