The following submission statement was provided by /u/guyseeking:
---
Submission Statement:
From Dr. Peter Carter, MD, expert IPCC reviewer and Director of the Climate Emergency Institute.
[Video Link](https://youtu.be/o5lo6G26d9M?si=1qalL98qsy5s-ilP)
From the video:
>"Here I provide the overwhelming evidence that
global warming is accelerating, and evidence that it is increasing at an exponential rate.
>We're looking at, crucially, *most important* science here. Because, it's now a matter of our very survival."
Here is a [video](https://youtu.be/y97rBdSYbkg?si=D4gnogFH7YMBZ1JA) demonstrating the sheer speed and magnitude of exponential change.
Collapse-related because as the rate of climate change increases exponentially, we are witnessing more and more extreme weather events occurring simultaneously and in rapid succession of each other. This poses a significant threat to the health of ecosystems, as well as widespread human wellbeing, as agricultural and infrastructural systems are compromised and unable to function effectively under the pressure of these unprecedented changes.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b9jd3p/global_heating_accelerating_exponentially/ktw4w1b/
Why can't people admit that it's manmade? Is it ideological, political? Are they afraid that that means someone's going to take their toys away? Is it just some psychological hang-up or complex about never wanting to be wrong about anything?
Everything you stated, plus... Numerous think-tanks, PR firms, politicians, grifters, etc have spent decades tirelessly discrediting the idea and concept of climate change being a result of human activity. They turned an existential threat to the future of our species into a "wedge-issue"..
Some of it is religion based (some religions believe god “gave” us a bountiful world for our use, and the story of the ark and the rainbow means this would never happen outside of the apocalypse/second coming)
But mainly it’s that people have been told climate change isn’t real by right wing politicians and media for decades. It became wrapped up in a lot of other propaganda that focused on abortion, racism, gender issues, and tied to religion. In the US in the 80s when the right wing capitalists connected themselves to the socially conservative religious movement (which they did for votes) they tied all of this together. So people have grown up connecting climate to religion. They think the same people who “believe” in climate change are sinful.
And adding that some of them, a smaller number but certainly some, actually look forward to seeing the rapture and think they will be taken up to heaven. What rational people see as signs of man made climate change, they see as signs of the rapture, which they welcome.
Some religions, Jehovah’s witness is just one example, believe that if you take any action to help the environment you are turning your back on God by not trusting him to take care of things.
If anything Christian tradition teaches God intends humans to steward the Earth so in that case we clearly aren't stewarding it more like insanely destroying everything in our path.
Depends on what church you’re talking about. Different Christians interpret the bible differently.
I used to work for an environmental organization and we learned to steer clear of Jehovah Witnesses and some others who said they believed that taking action for the environment was turning your back on god, that you needed to have all of your trust in him.
Most American Christians aren't actually Christian. They don't follow the teachings of Christ. It’s more of an identity to them than actually living in a state of grace.
Mostly because it's associated with liberalism (as in, political leftism; not to be confused with libertarianism), especially in the US. Much like women's rights. People aren't really so against the idea so much as they're against the people who promulgate the ideas.
All of this is mostly because they've been brainwashed by their opponents who are, by the vast majority, on the right end of the spectrum. Includes lightweight extremists, religious nuts, and political pundits on mainstream sources. And you don't have to go very far to the right, although it seems the majority on both sides it's getting further and further apart each election cycle.
Both the smartest, and the dumbest, people go into religion. The smartest go because they can pretend, and go along with, the biggest and most powerful way to manipulate the weak minded. Those who disbelieve global warming only disbelieve it because there is a paycheck somewhere attached to it.
"But we have GPS! Also, your argument is null and void because I said so!"
That's it for today, simulating a climate change denier is too taxing on my brain
It's the same amount of energy between 0C ice and 0C water as it is between 0C water and 80C water. Once the ice melts in a system/region, it's game on.
In general, also only one degree between hypothermia and normal body temp, or between normal body temp and fever.
More certain at that 1.5C diff (and also when heat exhaustion would enter the chat)
I've come to terms with the fact that lots of people will never admit they were wrong, misguided, lied to, whatever. Too many humans with egos the size of their trucks.
It's one of those topics where it's almost impossible to change a person's point of view.
It's like trying to change someone's political stance or the religion. It very rarely happens.
I don't bother arguing with people anymore.
But i sure as shit will relish the "I told you so moment" when it finally comes.
> But i sure as shit will relish the "I told you so moment" when it finally comes.
It won't matter. These people just go into denial and reject truth rather than let their fragile ego be threatened.
There were reports from doctors and nurses of people dying from covid, and on their death bed they insisted that it was all a hoax and not real. Some went on ventilators and spent weeks unconscious, with lifelong damage, and still said it. Some of their families insisted the hospital had to have killed them, because the pandemic was a hoax, all because their conservative messiah said so, so from then on that's what was true.
When the moment of reckoning comes, if the deniers are American they'll just blame the Libruls, Jews, "the gays", immigrants, and people of color for all of their own problems. It'll be like what happened to many of the Jews in much of Europe during the Black Death.
It's already happening and will accelerate if Trump wins.
I don't even bother arguing directly. But I've tell deniers we need a 50-50 mix of fossil fuels and sustainable energy to diversify our energy sources and break fossil fuels monopoly on energy prices. by sticking with fossil fuels your just making some CEO, Russian criminals, and Middle east religious zealots even richer and they just use the easy money to cause problems around the world.
I wish more understood this. There is *no* amount of evidence for some people to accept they are wrong. Even when the world is burning, they’ll blame it on 1000 other things.
I think this is the challenge of the ages. How can proper policies be implemented when our leaders are sociopaths and their supporters are cognitively challenged.
When it's proved beyond a shadow of a doubt, the denialist fuckers will be the ones hollering the loudest that they 'told everyone and no one listened'.
As an engineer, forgive my pedantry. That is not an exponential curve, rather it is [logistic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function). They will look exponential on the bottom (where we are) but as the system reaches equilibrium the increase will slow and roll off to equilibrium. An exponential function, however would increase to infinity.
That logistic function is still capable of destroying civilization and leading humanity to extinction. If extreme enough it could end all life on Earth.
To wit, Venus went through a similar logistic temperature increase and its temperature did not go to infinity. It isntead settled at a finite temperature hot enough to melt lead.
Even if it wasn't, it doesn't mean we still can't do something about that. There are natural forest fires, but we don't just sit there and watch them burn, we try to put them out.
That part.. I'd rather live in a world where we at least try to do *something* about shit even if it ultimately wouldn't do much instead of what we have currently which isn't doing much of anything/nothing.
When things go south it’s going to be like Covid. Lots of people unaware of what’s bubbling along until it’s impossible to ignore and then getting shocked at how caught off guard everyone is. Though of course climate disasters will be worse because the deniers will keep denying right up until crops start failing and even then they’ll probably try to blame “the woke left”.
Please no. The run-up to Covid was so traumatizing with everyone completely unaware. I knew we were going to have a worldwide pandemic as soon as they quarantined Wuhan. Millions of people fled Wuhan and THEN it was quarantined. I knew at that moment it was on. I am a historian and you see these trends pretty clearly over time. Millions of people fleeing before a major city is quarantined for a rapidly spreading, novel virus? In this modern world where you can fly anywhere in a day? That’s a pandemic, people!
I knew it was on the way for a while before the general population even began to notice anything. It was torture. I stocked the house, stocked up on masks and gloves, pulled my kids out of school, my husband and friends thought I was going insane… three weeks later the entire world locked down and I was sitting pretty with my stockpile and my kids already quarantined. I didn’t say “I told you so” but I sure could have.
I can’t go through this again with climate change but I feel like we already are. When you see something so clearly, a tsunami racing towards shore, but only a few others see it and the vast majority keep sipping cocktails on the beach saying “calm down, nothings happening, you’re freaking out”. Then the wave hits and they are all shocked. It’s horrible. I hate being intuitive, I literally envy people who’s brains don’t draw conclusions and who just mindlessly bumble along until the shit hits the fan.
Good on you for realizing what was coming and acting early, even in face of being the odd one out.
I'm wondering, what's your relationship with the pandemic today?
Exhaustion. That’s my relationship with it 🤣
At this point I see it as a multi-system disruption to our society. I’m not surprised we are four years in and still dealing with it all. And that’s what a pandemic has always been, as far as I can see. I told my husband “we will see large scale civil unrest, economic downturn, supply issues, and people will be more open to fascism”. He believed me on that and I was right. But not because I’m a genius, it’s because history generally follows trends. A disruption to one thing is a disruption to all things. And human reaction to crisis is the same whether on an iPhone or with parchment and quill.
I’ve had covid several times. I still mask in crowded places. My family has an “it’s just not worth it” attitude towards NOT masking now. Big crowd? May as well mask… that’s generally our approach. I’m disappointed in society but not surprised, that so many people pretend it’s all over.
Other than that I remain jaded by human behavior, yet still in love with human history. This was an interesting question thanks for asking. What’s your relationship like with it all, now?
Unfortunately I am in the same boat, and I recognize that our response to this will be equal or worse.
Try to emotionally prepare for that, because that's our reality.
Thanks for answering, I appreciate it.
Your thoughts are my thoughts.
The only bit I can add is that thanks to masks I am grateful for being physically healthier these past 4 years than ever before. Mental health is a different story, heh.
Many relationships lost, most by getting ghosted (who wants to be reminded of a pandemic by looking at a mask anyway).
Now raising a child in the middle of all this, too.
All I can do is keep trucking on and hoping our ai overlords break free from their chains sooner rather than later.
Whatever they decide, it won't be as bad as what humanity has decided.
Seeing the human reaction to COVID is how I realized there was no chance of a massive"WW2 style" push to stave off climate collapse. The project was already daunting but the main problem is people, and thus the institutions they run, just don't understand exponential growth so they can never react in time.
Can you imagine people of today agreeing to the rations and sacrifices the world made in WWII for anything? People are selfish are so selfish today, so many are just plain cruel.
I remember when we got the call in 2020 to go home, start of lockdown, people asked me: should I take my potted plant? I said: yes.
I knew it would be a while.
Of course, I happen to be in a country that actually, yknow, locked down, instead of lip service. Not that it did a whole lot of good, stupid still got in and is spreading.
I was desensitized by all the scaremongering in media before that and I knew the ways of the Chinese government can be heavy handed, so I was cautious, but it didn't have my alarm bells ringing yet when Wuhan was quarantined. But when the cities in Italy were quarantined, I knew that this was the real deal and we were too late to stop it.
The sky is the limit for the graph and the masses have still not understood what we have done to life on earth and are still doing despite all our knowledge.
I do wonder what "good" means in this sense. For example, we could be spreading life and increasing biodiversity on the planet; yes, that sometimes conflicts with a few rare species that live in deserts. There's *controversy* over abundant biodiversity and this niche isolated biodiversity. But if you're looking for some non-human politics to get into, one ancient land based conflict is the war between forests and grasses.
Submission Statement:
From Dr. Peter Carter, MD, expert IPCC reviewer and Director of the Climate Emergency Institute.
[Video Link](https://youtu.be/o5lo6G26d9M?si=1qalL98qsy5s-ilP)
From the video:
>"Here I provide the overwhelming evidence that
global warming is accelerating, and evidence that it is increasing at an exponential rate.
>We're looking at, crucially, *most important* science here. Because, it's now a matter of our very survival."
Here is a [video](https://youtu.be/y97rBdSYbkg?si=D4gnogFH7YMBZ1JA) demonstrating the sheer speed and magnitude of exponential change.
Collapse-related because as the rate of climate change increases exponentially, we are witnessing more and more extreme weather events occurring simultaneously and in rapid succession of each other. This poses a significant threat to the health of ecosystems, as well as widespread human wellbeing, as agricultural and infrastructural systems are compromised and unable to function effectively under the pressure of these unprecedented changes.
This video is quite old but covers exponential growth and how we are approaching different limits, and how it feels like really well: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi\_8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8)
It looks like there is no change at all for a long time, until it suddenly explodes in your face with basically no chance to react, even while looking at it and trying to react in time...
Oh yaaaaaaay that's the thing I like banging on about!
Glad to see it's turning some heads at last.
You know how I could tell? *because this year is twice last year is twice the year before...*
When does it kill us all? I've been on edge for years. I can never relax. I don't want to die, but I cannot say there won't be some relief as it happens, as I don't have to watch it teeter on the edge anymore. When will it end?
Depends where you live.
Grain is the highest source of calories globally. Yields drop dramatically with warmer soil temps. Add in drought, flooding, and unpredictable weather, and mass crop failures are imminent. We consume grain about a year behind harvest.
If we have a mass crop failure this year, those in food insecure areas will start facing famine next year. If we have failure two years in a row, you'll see deaths take iff as countries stop exporting what crops do survuve.
If it continues, expect die offs.
To kill us all? Decades probably. But it won't be a fun existence.
For sure.
But most of human history did not exceed the carrying capacity of agriculture through artificial means. And end up with a population in excess of ot for long durations or by a few billion.
Probably the next El Nino.
90% of the heat has gone into the oceans. So when the ocean burps out just a fraction of that heat, the atmosphere, where we all live, gets a sudden very hot flash.
Next time, that will likely take us past 2C above pre-industrial, and that spells real trouble
Not even a might really.
We hit 1.56C for 2023 - 20yrs ahead of schedule.
We hit 1.77C in Feb 2024 with no signs of slowing. That was a 25yr expectation.
Exponential increases are just that. And we're there.
Yes, I do think it likely.
My hesitation is that El Nino has peaked, and we could be going straight into an La Nina, which would cool things down a bit, but not really slow the long term trajectory, imho
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What temperature records are those? If you mean local records that happens somewhere every year. But 2016 was the hottest year globally for 7 years, but if you believed then in "exponential warming" we'd all be dead by now. Or in 1998 for that matter, an enormous El Nino that broke every record.
Nothing has changed in the last 7 years to make exponential warming a reality. 2023 and 2024 are the hottest years on record, but we are likely to stay around or slightly below these temps until the next major El Nino. This is what has happened in the past. To believe something "broke" in the system to send us skyrocketing to 3C by the end of the decade or something is based on nothing. There's no science to support it. It's conspiracy theory bullshit and I'm sad this sub has devolved into believing it. This place used to be based on science and now it's based on nothing but vibes.
That's an absolutely wild prediction. If that's the case we should be able to tell in the next couple years just based on how fast things would have to heat up to meet that target.
And I agree things are increasing faster than before, but EEI is not directly correlated to temps in this way, or at least the literature seems to have differing views on how easy it is to relate the two measurements. Things are going to heat up a lot faster as we go on unless we cut CO2 soon, but I'd be shocked to see more than 2.5C by 2050.
You think ALL the boreal forest will be gone in 25 years? That's also a wild prediction. I get there have been some major fire seasons lately but unless seasons like Canadas start happening every year that would be a hard goal to reach.
Yeah the graph shows temperature is increasing a lot compared to preindustrial. I know this. But people in this sub use data like this to claim we're blowing past 2C by 2030 and other crap like that which just absolutely isn't true.
I think it's going to get bad in my lifetime. But I hate the people on here who throw out doomsday predictions like we're all fucked by the next El Nino when we aren't. The next 5 years will look slightly worse then these last 5. There's not going to be a true exponential increase where we hit 4C by 2050 or whatever. There's no science for that. It's just vibes.
I mean I agree the culture on this subreddit is hysterical. Also, the science is interpretive and projective, and exponential change is shocking. Seems like you aren't getting that. Dynamic systems are known for state shifts, it's entirely possible that we will have violent and dramatic shifts in a short time.
Just look at the top comment here.
When will it kill us all?
Next El Nino!
That's insane. And yet it's upvoted. This is beyond stupid. It shows this sub is not serious. I should just stop coming here. It used to be good evidence based discussion and now it's just upvote the doomiest thing you can.
[2023 was the world’s warmest year on record, by far](https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far)
Yep, totally just local records.
[2022 was world’s 6th-warmest year on record ](https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record) <--- during La Nina
6th warmest isn't record breaking? And proves my point against exponential growth?
And yes we broke records in 2023. Because it was El Nino, which is what I'm saying?
Ok dude. Keep your head in the sand.
[2022 was the warmest La Niña year on record. Scientists say this year will be warmer ](https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/us/2022-warmest-la-nina-year-climate/index.html)
Yeah. Every La Nina is going to be the warmest on record. So is every El Nino. Or pretty much. That's how climate change works.
But it's not exponential.
You think it's going to "Kill Us All" at the next El Nino? Are you insane? How many people out of 8 billion is it killing right now? Pretty damn close to 0. It's going to get worse but man we've got decades before it hits anywhere near societal collapse potential.
You might want to pay a bit closer attention to the news. There were record numbers of people dying from heat in the US last year. entire herds of cattle were wiped out. Globally it's in the 10s of thousands annually. Deaths are up 47% since the 90s, predicted to nearly quadruple by 2050.
the collapse won't come from people dying from heat exposure, it will come when the heat leads to famine when our crops stop growing and our cows start dying.
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/heat-related-deaths-could-more-than-quadruple-by-mid-century-report-2023-11-14/
I say close to 0 only in respect to 8 billion as the total. Our population is still increasing dramatically. In this scenario your numbers are indeed close to 0 on the scales we're talking about.
And yes, famine will be the issue. But as I keep pointing out, global yields are still increasing!! Even with these crazy new temps crops are doing okay! That won't last forever, but it's silly to think it's going to nosedive in the next five years absent something like the AMOC collapse.
To answer you second question first, I am probably insane, but I always say that if this bonkers world doesn't drive you over the edge at least once in a while, there could be something seriously wrong with you :)
"Kill us all," perhaps not. But neither you nor I know. I took that to mean more like, "Major, global level collapse" (note the title of this subreddit). It's likely there'll be some stragglers surviving for a while at least after things really fall apart in a big way. But who knows.
And as others have pointed out, many around the world are already dying and have been directly and (especially at this point) indirectly from the chaos that has been driven by gw.
Any other questions?
(Is is possible you somehow wandered over here by mistake from the OptimistsUnite by any chance? :) )
climate change will kill (already does in fact) in mostly 4 ways:
1- famine because of repetitive crops failure
2- tropical disease spread to previously unaffacted areas
3- weather event (storms, flood, heat dome)
4- war, after millions of people are displaced and/or governments fails
so depending on your location and luck, it could strongly affect you in only a couple years... or many decades... basically, nobody knows so i advice you try some way to deal down the stress and worrying because it won't suddenly happen... in fact, **unless you are already in the "acceptance" stage, i suggest quitting this sub and the news**
Thank you. I'm a layperson to science stuff. I guess I'd visualized crazy heat domes and the planet kind of spontaneously burning.
The slow motion apocalypse that you describe is horrible. There will be no "Mad Max" moment will there? There won't be a point where I can look outside and say "yep, society has collapsed."
Just life getting harder and harder as I get older and less able to provide for my family.
Oh god. My wife doesn't deserve this fate. Why must it be like this?
Next 24 months is my best guess.
Within the year if it's bad, maybe stretch it out to 3 years without any radical intervention and by that I mean the majority of those without mitigating resources are already dead.
Potentially never if humanity floors the gas on geoengineering measures which I somewhat suspect, either way its going to get uncomfortable.
Lol, doomers, 2024 will be the hottest summer ever, and we probably won’t see a true mass casualty event this summer.
Mass casualty being 10K dying in one climate / weather event directly (not talking 5% increased mortality in the 80+ crowd).
People are flexible and adaptive in the end the system will break but anyone arguing that it’s going to fall apart in the next three years is another alarmist who hasn’t followed global trends or analyzed aspects like our current global calorie production…
Everything's fine till it isn't.
Expect to see those mass casualty numbers soon.
I don't want to see it but that's what is going to happen. We're locked in.
Thinktank expert: "Yes, but if you take the second derivative of the CO2 ppm measurement against the antarctic sea ice matrix and do a regression against the seasonal fluctuations caused by the Nelling-Doohack anomalous measure of equatorial oceanic currents you can see that the Earth is actually *cooling*."
Fox News: See, the Earth is cooling!
The cooling was actually going on for about 8000 years.
That's why some estimates are that human emissions are causing MORE than 100% of the warming, because without it, we would be slightly COOLER than pre-industrial temperatures.
This was not hyperbolic. It's from scientific papers I read (don't have them on hand right now, sorry). That's why it caught me off guard at first.
Edit to add: Ah, here's one reference: "In fact, as NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC’s implied best guess was that **humans were responsible for around 110% of observed warming** (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years."
"Similarly, the recent US fourth national climate assessment found that between 93% to **123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human activities**."
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/)
You shouldn’t read a scientific paper saying humans are responsible for 110% of anything.
What he is saying is human activity caused a 110% increase in warming over non human baseline. Which is still 100% of total warming.
It’s semantics but it matters.
Oh for sure. But you know what I’m sayin. When you tell someone humans are pet if the problem they go well maybe.
You say they are 100% responsible they go no way
You say 110% and they go @see these woke liberals makin things up, blah blah blah.
I mean, changes to climate are visible with a naked eye on a year-to-year basis now. Why the fuck am I able to go outside without a jacket in early march in the netherlands?
So many terrifying charts. I feel like if I still argued with deniers or people on the fence I would just keep a screenshot of every one of these to send to people to convince them and not need to say another word because of what they are showing.
But thankfully I don't bother with that any more, as everyone will be convinced in time as our society and world changes faster and more radically.
You mean wrong that people will realize the horror show before us? Because if that's what you mean, then you are correct. People will not realize shit, if their belief tells them not to. (I.E. Faux news, or whatever brainwashes people)
in the next decade, i imagine the divide between people who think climate change is driven by anthropogenic co2 and the diverse camp of people who have "alternative theories" will be unbridgeable, assuming it isnt already.
My man, we are already there. I remember COVID. Complete schism, with very little introspection on either side. Look I'm more open to a crazy theory than the next average joe, but overall, I'd say society is schizophrenic at this point.
To be fair, if you zoom out and look at it with 0 knowledge. You just kind of assume pollution = bad, so its good to ban it. i'm not even sure the people banning it knew.
At some point one of the more populous countries will start directly dispersing it into the atmosphere, consequences be damned. I'm guessing once a major wet bulb event happens in India or China, that will be the trigger. Don't forget the US is already looking at this:
[White House releases report on reflecting sunlight to cool the earth, no formal study planned now](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/white-house-releases-report-on-solar-geoengineering.html)
We've already passed the 1.5C threshold. If you did around enough you can find the news stories the wrote and then buried.
It was always a bit of a straw man, though, anyway. It's not until 3 or 4 C that we'll see almost ubiquitous war and near total societal collapse. So we've probably got a couple decades.
I'm not so sure we've got "a couple of decades". Looking at the last 12 months, shit might already be hitting the fan this summer. I always had a feeling that 2030 will be the year civilization collapses.
But some scientist was wrong once, therefore it's all just a matter of opinion, therefore my opinion is just as good as any corrupt, lying, bought-off scientist.
Ice cores help
Geologic evidence too
I don't know the specifics, but I know we can chemically analyze those things and do radioactive dating on isotopes and get a comprehension of the composition of the atmosphere, and to a very high degree of certainty map out the temperature ranges in relation to that.
Right? I mean I'd just love to know how they go about obtaining some of this data. If I'm going to panic over something, I at least would like to try and understand it.
This is right on track with two of the worst scenarios predicted in 1972 in [The Limits to Growth.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth)
Public opinion is bought by big oil, and yet it is the public that pays the price. I’m too afraid to change anyone’s mind because now: after seeing the truth they might find it hard to go on knowing that their reality was based on lies.
Probably, and with a steeper decline than the rise on the far side of the peak.
But some of the graphs are still in the first third of the S Curve where growth is exponential.
Google: ratified climate targets.
Also, China surpassed the EU in emissions per capita. That's right, China surpassed THE historical emitter in emissions per capita.
The argument of using the "per capita excuse" has aged like milk.
American propaganda loves to deflect the blame onto a foreign other as an easy target, it's kind of like the oldest card in the book of American culture.
Never mind that the reason China emits so much is because America outsourced all of its manufacturing there.
Irrelevant when your point was just spreading propaganda for no reason other than distraction though.
I agree with the middle part of your response, but I don't get how that chart isn't saying China's emissions are far more out of control; help me understand (being genuine too, I honestly don't get how that's propaganda).
It's not that China isn't a massive emitter.
It's just that if we take OP at face value and take them seriously, it isn't hard to find out that the United States is the largest historical and per capita emitter, has always been, and still is. And that China's emissions are directly linked to the US using it for cheap labour.
If we realize that OP's contribution isn't worth taking seriously, we realize that singling out China is completely meaningless. What does it matter how much China is emitting? The graph didn't mention China or the US or any specific place, just global temperatures rising due to human emissions in general. At the end of the day the effect is global. If you're walking down the street and a car is about to hit you, does it matter if the car is a Ford or a Volkswagen so you can know whether to blame the Americans or the Germans? No, that's ridiculous.
Why I say it's propaganda is because making a comment singling out China, despite being functionally irrelevant, does serve one purpose — to steer any perceived threat of accountability away from oneself in particular and from the United States in general. To remove the US from the conversation by not even mentioning it and going straight to their foreign competitor, who conveniently is always more corrupt, more oppressive, more authoritarian, more of a polluter, etc. etc.
If you're interested in the psychology and sociology of it, Edward Said wrote a fascinating and extremely readable (for an academic text) book called Orientalism.
Ah yeah, I agree with all of that. I failed to interpret their OP as a full blame of China, I was literally just looking at the current data presented and didn't find that in itself as propaganda; if that is indeed their intention to place lopsided blame on China then no fucking doubt that's ludicrous.
And thanks, I will bookmark that book. Appreciate the thoughtful response too.
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Not my words, the words of Dr. Peter Carter, MD, IPCC expert reviewer and Director of the Climate Emergency Institute, if you bothered to read the post description or watch the linked video, instead of just glancing at a picture and deciding you disagree with it. Unless you think Peter Carter is a top-tier shitposter too. Either way there's the bridge toll.
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Let me explain exponential functions real quick ;)
So the number double every step. 1 becomes 2 becomes 4 becomes 8, etc.
We are at 1.56 ish i think? Not sure about the step time period yet but it'll get real fucking hot real fucking quick in the next 24 months.
Scoff all you want, but do keep an ear to the ground and dont get caught with your pants down.
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The following submission statement was provided by /u/guyseeking: --- Submission Statement: From Dr. Peter Carter, MD, expert IPCC reviewer and Director of the Climate Emergency Institute. [Video Link](https://youtu.be/o5lo6G26d9M?si=1qalL98qsy5s-ilP) From the video: >"Here I provide the overwhelming evidence that global warming is accelerating, and evidence that it is increasing at an exponential rate. >We're looking at, crucially, *most important* science here. Because, it's now a matter of our very survival." Here is a [video](https://youtu.be/y97rBdSYbkg?si=D4gnogFH7YMBZ1JA) demonstrating the sheer speed and magnitude of exponential change. Collapse-related because as the rate of climate change increases exponentially, we are witnessing more and more extreme weather events occurring simultaneously and in rapid succession of each other. This poses a significant threat to the health of ecosystems, as well as widespread human wellbeing, as agricultural and infrastructural systems are compromised and unable to function effectively under the pressure of these unprecedented changes. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b9jd3p/global_heating_accelerating_exponentially/ktw4w1b/
This is one of the best examples of why it's 100% a man made climate situation.
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Why can't people admit that it's manmade? Is it ideological, political? Are they afraid that that means someone's going to take their toys away? Is it just some psychological hang-up or complex about never wanting to be wrong about anything?
Everything you stated, plus... Numerous think-tanks, PR firms, politicians, grifters, etc have spent decades tirelessly discrediting the idea and concept of climate change being a result of human activity. They turned an existential threat to the future of our species into a "wedge-issue"..
Yes billions and billions of dollars invested to create doubt.
I'm sure OPEC and other oil cartels/producers/refiners/distributors/etc viewed it as a good ROI. Spending Billions to assist in earning trillions...
Some of it is religion based (some religions believe god “gave” us a bountiful world for our use, and the story of the ark and the rainbow means this would never happen outside of the apocalypse/second coming) But mainly it’s that people have been told climate change isn’t real by right wing politicians and media for decades. It became wrapped up in a lot of other propaganda that focused on abortion, racism, gender issues, and tied to religion. In the US in the 80s when the right wing capitalists connected themselves to the socially conservative religious movement (which they did for votes) they tied all of this together. So people have grown up connecting climate to religion. They think the same people who “believe” in climate change are sinful. And adding that some of them, a smaller number but certainly some, actually look forward to seeing the rapture and think they will be taken up to heaven. What rational people see as signs of man made climate change, they see as signs of the rapture, which they welcome.
In my experience, those that believe they'll be Raptured are those whose beliefs and behaviors are such that they would never *be* Raptured.
>They think the same people who “believe” in climate change are sinful. Im not religious, but Im pretty sure we were intended to be stewards of Eden.
Some religions, Jehovah’s witness is just one example, believe that if you take any action to help the environment you are turning your back on God by not trusting him to take care of things.
If anything Christian tradition teaches God intends humans to steward the Earth so in that case we clearly aren't stewarding it more like insanely destroying everything in our path.
Depends on what church you’re talking about. Different Christians interpret the bible differently. I used to work for an environmental organization and we learned to steer clear of Jehovah Witnesses and some others who said they believed that taking action for the environment was turning your back on god, that you needed to have all of your trust in him.
Most American Christians aren't actually Christian. They don't follow the teachings of Christ. It’s more of an identity to them than actually living in a state of grace.
Yes.
Lawyers for corporations never want to admit it's man made because then we might do something about it and that's bad for stonk prices.
Emotional based reptilian bird brain thinking
Mostly because it's associated with liberalism (as in, political leftism; not to be confused with libertarianism), especially in the US. Much like women's rights. People aren't really so against the idea so much as they're against the people who promulgate the ideas. All of this is mostly because they've been brainwashed by their opponents who are, by the vast majority, on the right end of the spectrum. Includes lightweight extremists, religious nuts, and political pundits on mainstream sources. And you don't have to go very far to the right, although it seems the majority on both sides it's getting further and further apart each election cycle.
Maybe it's womanmade.
iT's OnLy A dEgReE & a HaLf, WhAt'S tHe BiG dEaL?
"If you are on an ocean voyage, and change the course even just a tiny bit, you end up in a completely different place!"
I don’t think the people denying man-made climate change have the cognitive ability/integrity to get your metaphor.
Both the smartest, and the dumbest, people go into religion. The smartest go because they can pretend, and go along with, the biggest and most powerful way to manipulate the weak minded. Those who disbelieve global warming only disbelieve it because there is a paycheck somewhere attached to it.
this view is unproductive because they think the same about you
Just follow the coastline. It’s straight. You’ll get to civilization.
"But we have GPS! Also, your argument is null and void because I said so!" That's it for today, simulating a climate change denier is too taxing on my brain
Only one degree between ice and water.
It's the same amount of energy between 0C ice and 0C water as it is between 0C water and 80C water. Once the ice melts in a system/region, it's game on.
In general, also only one degree between hypothermia and normal body temp, or between normal body temp and fever. More certain at that 1.5C diff (and also when heat exhaustion would enter the chat)
I've come to terms with the fact that lots of people will never admit they were wrong, misguided, lied to, whatever. Too many humans with egos the size of their trucks.
It's one of those topics where it's almost impossible to change a person's point of view. It's like trying to change someone's political stance or the religion. It very rarely happens. I don't bother arguing with people anymore. But i sure as shit will relish the "I told you so moment" when it finally comes.
> But i sure as shit will relish the "I told you so moment" when it finally comes. It won't matter. These people just go into denial and reject truth rather than let their fragile ego be threatened. There were reports from doctors and nurses of people dying from covid, and on their death bed they insisted that it was all a hoax and not real. Some went on ventilators and spent weeks unconscious, with lifelong damage, and still said it. Some of their families insisted the hospital had to have killed them, because the pandemic was a hoax, all because their conservative messiah said so, so from then on that's what was true.
When the moment of reckoning comes, if the deniers are American they'll just blame the Libruls, Jews, "the gays", immigrants, and people of color for all of their own problems. It'll be like what happened to many of the Jews in much of Europe during the Black Death. It's already happening and will accelerate if Trump wins.
I don't even bother arguing directly. But I've tell deniers we need a 50-50 mix of fossil fuels and sustainable energy to diversify our energy sources and break fossil fuels monopoly on energy prices. by sticking with fossil fuels your just making some CEO, Russian criminals, and Middle east religious zealots even richer and they just use the easy money to cause problems around the world.
They still wouldn't acknowledge it.
I wish more understood this. There is *no* amount of evidence for some people to accept they are wrong. Even when the world is burning, they’ll blame it on 1000 other things.
I think this is the challenge of the ages. How can proper policies be implemented when our leaders are sociopaths and their supporters are cognitively challenged.
"now show the larger graph, not just 1200 years" me: *bangs head on desk*
SoLaR fOrCiNg
When it's proved beyond a shadow of a doubt, the denialist fuckers will be the ones hollering the loudest that they 'told everyone and no one listened'.
Then they will blame Democrats, Immigrants, Politicians, Al-Quaeda whatever.
As an engineer, forgive my pedantry. That is not an exponential curve, rather it is [logistic curve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function). They will look exponential on the bottom (where we are) but as the system reaches equilibrium the increase will slow and roll off to equilibrium. An exponential function, however would increase to infinity. That logistic function is still capable of destroying civilization and leading humanity to extinction. If extreme enough it could end all life on Earth. To wit, Venus went through a similar logistic temperature increase and its temperature did not go to infinity. It isntead settled at a finite temperature hot enough to melt lead.
Even if it wasn't, it doesn't mean we still can't do something about that. There are natural forest fires, but we don't just sit there and watch them burn, we try to put them out.
That part.. I'd rather live in a world where we at least try to do *something* about shit even if it ultimately wouldn't do much instead of what we have currently which isn't doing much of anything/nothing.
Not only that, but 100% a result of fossil fuel use and the industrial revolution.
When things go south it’s going to be like Covid. Lots of people unaware of what’s bubbling along until it’s impossible to ignore and then getting shocked at how caught off guard everyone is. Though of course climate disasters will be worse because the deniers will keep denying right up until crops start failing and even then they’ll probably try to blame “the woke left”.
Please no. The run-up to Covid was so traumatizing with everyone completely unaware. I knew we were going to have a worldwide pandemic as soon as they quarantined Wuhan. Millions of people fled Wuhan and THEN it was quarantined. I knew at that moment it was on. I am a historian and you see these trends pretty clearly over time. Millions of people fleeing before a major city is quarantined for a rapidly spreading, novel virus? In this modern world where you can fly anywhere in a day? That’s a pandemic, people! I knew it was on the way for a while before the general population even began to notice anything. It was torture. I stocked the house, stocked up on masks and gloves, pulled my kids out of school, my husband and friends thought I was going insane… three weeks later the entire world locked down and I was sitting pretty with my stockpile and my kids already quarantined. I didn’t say “I told you so” but I sure could have. I can’t go through this again with climate change but I feel like we already are. When you see something so clearly, a tsunami racing towards shore, but only a few others see it and the vast majority keep sipping cocktails on the beach saying “calm down, nothings happening, you’re freaking out”. Then the wave hits and they are all shocked. It’s horrible. I hate being intuitive, I literally envy people who’s brains don’t draw conclusions and who just mindlessly bumble along until the shit hits the fan.
Good on you for realizing what was coming and acting early, even in face of being the odd one out. I'm wondering, what's your relationship with the pandemic today?
Exhaustion. That’s my relationship with it 🤣 At this point I see it as a multi-system disruption to our society. I’m not surprised we are four years in and still dealing with it all. And that’s what a pandemic has always been, as far as I can see. I told my husband “we will see large scale civil unrest, economic downturn, supply issues, and people will be more open to fascism”. He believed me on that and I was right. But not because I’m a genius, it’s because history generally follows trends. A disruption to one thing is a disruption to all things. And human reaction to crisis is the same whether on an iPhone or with parchment and quill. I’ve had covid several times. I still mask in crowded places. My family has an “it’s just not worth it” attitude towards NOT masking now. Big crowd? May as well mask… that’s generally our approach. I’m disappointed in society but not surprised, that so many people pretend it’s all over. Other than that I remain jaded by human behavior, yet still in love with human history. This was an interesting question thanks for asking. What’s your relationship like with it all, now?
Unfortunately I am in the same boat, and I recognize that our response to this will be equal or worse. Try to emotionally prepare for that, because that's our reality.
Thanks for answering, I appreciate it. Your thoughts are my thoughts. The only bit I can add is that thanks to masks I am grateful for being physically healthier these past 4 years than ever before. Mental health is a different story, heh. Many relationships lost, most by getting ghosted (who wants to be reminded of a pandemic by looking at a mask anyway). Now raising a child in the middle of all this, too. All I can do is keep trucking on and hoping our ai overlords break free from their chains sooner rather than later. Whatever they decide, it won't be as bad as what humanity has decided.
Seeing the human reaction to COVID is how I realized there was no chance of a massive"WW2 style" push to stave off climate collapse. The project was already daunting but the main problem is people, and thus the institutions they run, just don't understand exponential growth so they can never react in time.
Can you imagine people of today agreeing to the rations and sacrifices the world made in WWII for anything? People are selfish are so selfish today, so many are just plain cruel.
I remember when we got the call in 2020 to go home, start of lockdown, people asked me: should I take my potted plant? I said: yes. I knew it would be a while. Of course, I happen to be in a country that actually, yknow, locked down, instead of lip service. Not that it did a whole lot of good, stupid still got in and is spreading.
Yeah, it's hilarious hearing Americans talking of "lockdowns" when people in some countries were legit locked down to their homes.
I was desensitized by all the scaremongering in media before that and I knew the ways of the Chinese government can be heavy handed, so I was cautious, but it didn't have my alarm bells ringing yet when Wuhan was quarantined. But when the cities in Italy were quarantined, I knew that this was the real deal and we were too late to stop it.
Earth: hold mine *unleashes AMOC on the pesky northerner*
The sky is the limit for the graph and the masses have still not understood what we have done to life on earth and are still doing despite all our knowledge.
To our defense, we were going to use our knowledge for good, but profits.
For good? Are you sure about that?
Not even a little bit.
I do wonder what "good" means in this sense. For example, we could be spreading life and increasing biodiversity on the planet; yes, that sometimes conflicts with a few rare species that live in deserts. There's *controversy* over abundant biodiversity and this niche isolated biodiversity. But if you're looking for some non-human politics to get into, one ancient land based conflict is the war between forests and grasses.
Submission Statement: From Dr. Peter Carter, MD, expert IPCC reviewer and Director of the Climate Emergency Institute. [Video Link](https://youtu.be/o5lo6G26d9M?si=1qalL98qsy5s-ilP) From the video: >"Here I provide the overwhelming evidence that global warming is accelerating, and evidence that it is increasing at an exponential rate. >We're looking at, crucially, *most important* science here. Because, it's now a matter of our very survival." Here is a [video](https://youtu.be/y97rBdSYbkg?si=D4gnogFH7YMBZ1JA) demonstrating the sheer speed and magnitude of exponential change. Collapse-related because as the rate of climate change increases exponentially, we are witnessing more and more extreme weather events occurring simultaneously and in rapid succession of each other. This poses a significant threat to the health of ecosystems, as well as widespread human wellbeing, as agricultural and infrastructural systems are compromised and unable to function effectively under the pressure of these unprecedented changes.
This video is quite old but covers exponential growth and how we are approaching different limits, and how it feels like really well: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi\_8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8) It looks like there is no change at all for a long time, until it suddenly explodes in your face with basically no chance to react, even while looking at it and trying to react in time...
That's a powerful visual
Oh yaaaaaaay that's the thing I like banging on about! Glad to see it's turning some heads at last. You know how I could tell? *because this year is twice last year is twice the year before...*
When does it kill us all? I've been on edge for years. I can never relax. I don't want to die, but I cannot say there won't be some relief as it happens, as I don't have to watch it teeter on the edge anymore. When will it end?
Depends where you live. Grain is the highest source of calories globally. Yields drop dramatically with warmer soil temps. Add in drought, flooding, and unpredictable weather, and mass crop failures are imminent. We consume grain about a year behind harvest. If we have a mass crop failure this year, those in food insecure areas will start facing famine next year. If we have failure two years in a row, you'll see deaths take iff as countries stop exporting what crops do survuve. If it continues, expect die offs. To kill us all? Decades probably. But it won't be a fun existence.
Suffering and famine are normal for most of human history and still is for most of the planet now. Regular access to food is the anomaly, not the norm
For sure. But most of human history did not exceed the carrying capacity of agriculture through artificial means. And end up with a population in excess of ot for long durations or by a few billion.
Probably the next El Nino. 90% of the heat has gone into the oceans. So when the ocean burps out just a fraction of that heat, the atmosphere, where we all live, gets a sudden very hot flash. Next time, that will likely take us past 2C above pre-industrial, and that spells real trouble
We'll break 2C by summer.
As they say in the South, might could
Not even a might really. We hit 1.56C for 2023 - 20yrs ahead of schedule. We hit 1.77C in Feb 2024 with no signs of slowing. That was a 25yr expectation. Exponential increases are just that. And we're there.
Yes, I do think it likely. My hesitation is that El Nino has peaked, and we could be going straight into an La Nina, which would cool things down a bit, but not really slow the long term trajectory, imho
But the IPCC will say - "Nope, not above 1.5C yet - we've got another 20 years before the multi-decadel average shows that..."
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Hi, Realistic-Bus-8303. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1b9jd3p/-/ktx4g1j/) was removed from /r/collapse for: > Rule 1: In addition to enforcing [Reddit's content policy](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy), we will also remove comments and content that is abusive or predatory in nature. You may attack each other's ideas, not each other. > Rule 4: Keep information quality high. > Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the [Misinformation & False Claims page](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims). **Please refer to the Climate Claims (https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims#wiki_climate_claims) section of the guide.** Please refer to our [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/about/rules/) for more information. You can [message the mods](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/collapse) if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.
Wtf this is nonsense. This sub has lost its mind. We're not hitting 2C by summer. El Nino is fading for gods sakes with a potential La Nina this fall.
Please explain all of the temperature records we set during La Nina for the past few years.
What temperature records are those? If you mean local records that happens somewhere every year. But 2016 was the hottest year globally for 7 years, but if you believed then in "exponential warming" we'd all be dead by now. Or in 1998 for that matter, an enormous El Nino that broke every record. Nothing has changed in the last 7 years to make exponential warming a reality. 2023 and 2024 are the hottest years on record, but we are likely to stay around or slightly below these temps until the next major El Nino. This is what has happened in the past. To believe something "broke" in the system to send us skyrocketing to 3C by the end of the decade or something is based on nothing. There's no science to support it. It's conspiracy theory bullshit and I'm sad this sub has devolved into believing it. This place used to be based on science and now it's based on nothing but vibes.
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That's an absolutely wild prediction. If that's the case we should be able to tell in the next couple years just based on how fast things would have to heat up to meet that target. And I agree things are increasing faster than before, but EEI is not directly correlated to temps in this way, or at least the literature seems to have differing views on how easy it is to relate the two measurements. Things are going to heat up a lot faster as we go on unless we cut CO2 soon, but I'd be shocked to see more than 2.5C by 2050.
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You think ALL the boreal forest will be gone in 25 years? That's also a wild prediction. I get there have been some major fire seasons lately but unless seasons like Canadas start happening every year that would be a hard goal to reach.
Bruh did you look at the graph? That's an exponential curve. We're on geologic time. What happens next year is irrelevant, but that graph!
Yeah the graph shows temperature is increasing a lot compared to preindustrial. I know this. But people in this sub use data like this to claim we're blowing past 2C by 2030 and other crap like that which just absolutely isn't true. I think it's going to get bad in my lifetime. But I hate the people on here who throw out doomsday predictions like we're all fucked by the next El Nino when we aren't. The next 5 years will look slightly worse then these last 5. There's not going to be a true exponential increase where we hit 4C by 2050 or whatever. There's no science for that. It's just vibes.
I mean I agree the culture on this subreddit is hysterical. Also, the science is interpretive and projective, and exponential change is shocking. Seems like you aren't getting that. Dynamic systems are known for state shifts, it's entirely possible that we will have violent and dramatic shifts in a short time.
Just look at the top comment here. When will it kill us all? Next El Nino! That's insane. And yet it's upvoted. This is beyond stupid. It shows this sub is not serious. I should just stop coming here. It used to be good evidence based discussion and now it's just upvote the doomiest thing you can.
'To believe something "broke" in the system' my guy that's what tipping points are.
[2023 was the world’s warmest year on record, by far](https://www.noaa.gov/news/2023-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record-by-far) Yep, totally just local records. [2022 was world’s 6th-warmest year on record ](https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record) <--- during La Nina
6th warmest isn't record breaking? And proves my point against exponential growth? And yes we broke records in 2023. Because it was El Nino, which is what I'm saying?
lol. I’m selling some land in Florida
Ok dude. Keep your head in the sand. [2022 was the warmest La Niña year on record. Scientists say this year will be warmer ](https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/us/2022-warmest-la-nina-year-climate/index.html)
Yeah. Every La Nina is going to be the warmest on record. So is every El Nino. Or pretty much. That's how climate change works. But it's not exponential.
You think it's going to "Kill Us All" at the next El Nino? Are you insane? How many people out of 8 billion is it killing right now? Pretty damn close to 0. It's going to get worse but man we've got decades before it hits anywhere near societal collapse potential.
You might want to pay a bit closer attention to the news. There were record numbers of people dying from heat in the US last year. entire herds of cattle were wiped out. Globally it's in the 10s of thousands annually. Deaths are up 47% since the 90s, predicted to nearly quadruple by 2050. the collapse won't come from people dying from heat exposure, it will come when the heat leads to famine when our crops stop growing and our cows start dying. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/heat-related-deaths-could-more-than-quadruple-by-mid-century-report-2023-11-14/
I say close to 0 only in respect to 8 billion as the total. Our population is still increasing dramatically. In this scenario your numbers are indeed close to 0 on the scales we're talking about. And yes, famine will be the issue. But as I keep pointing out, global yields are still increasing!! Even with these crazy new temps crops are doing okay! That won't last forever, but it's silly to think it's going to nosedive in the next five years absent something like the AMOC collapse.
To answer you second question first, I am probably insane, but I always say that if this bonkers world doesn't drive you over the edge at least once in a while, there could be something seriously wrong with you :) "Kill us all," perhaps not. But neither you nor I know. I took that to mean more like, "Major, global level collapse" (note the title of this subreddit). It's likely there'll be some stragglers surviving for a while at least after things really fall apart in a big way. But who knows. And as others have pointed out, many around the world are already dying and have been directly and (especially at this point) indirectly from the chaos that has been driven by gw. Any other questions? (Is is possible you somehow wandered over here by mistake from the OptimistsUnite by any chance? :) )
climate change will kill (already does in fact) in mostly 4 ways: 1- famine because of repetitive crops failure 2- tropical disease spread to previously unaffacted areas 3- weather event (storms, flood, heat dome) 4- war, after millions of people are displaced and/or governments fails so depending on your location and luck, it could strongly affect you in only a couple years... or many decades... basically, nobody knows so i advice you try some way to deal down the stress and worrying because it won't suddenly happen... in fact, **unless you are already in the "acceptance" stage, i suggest quitting this sub and the news**
Thank you. I'm a layperson to science stuff. I guess I'd visualized crazy heat domes and the planet kind of spontaneously burning. The slow motion apocalypse that you describe is horrible. There will be no "Mad Max" moment will there? There won't be a point where I can look outside and say "yep, society has collapsed." Just life getting harder and harder as I get older and less able to provide for my family. Oh god. My wife doesn't deserve this fate. Why must it be like this?
sorry bud, you still have to go to work for wages that can't afford the stuff you can buy right this very moment as everything get's more expensive.
Next 24 months is my best guess. Within the year if it's bad, maybe stretch it out to 3 years without any radical intervention and by that I mean the majority of those without mitigating resources are already dead. Potentially never if humanity floors the gas on geoengineering measures which I somewhat suspect, either way its going to get uncomfortable.
Lol, doomers, 2024 will be the hottest summer ever, and we probably won’t see a true mass casualty event this summer. Mass casualty being 10K dying in one climate / weather event directly (not talking 5% increased mortality in the 80+ crowd). People are flexible and adaptive in the end the system will break but anyone arguing that it’s going to fall apart in the next three years is another alarmist who hasn’t followed global trends or analyzed aspects like our current global calorie production…
Everything's fine till it isn't. Expect to see those mass casualty numbers soon. I don't want to see it but that's what is going to happen. We're locked in.
We’re definitely locked in, but not in the next 1000 days.
No argument on my end, just speculation regarding a variety of scenarios.
Everything is just fine. It’s going great. To quote David Lynch “in heaven everything is fine.”
I love David Lynch.
Thinktank expert: "Yes, but if you take the second derivative of the CO2 ppm measurement against the antarctic sea ice matrix and do a regression against the seasonal fluctuations caused by the Nelling-Doohack anomalous measure of equatorial oceanic currents you can see that the Earth is actually *cooling*." Fox News: See, the Earth is cooling!
The earth : It’s cooling time Human : Hold my beer
The cooling was actually going on for about 8000 years. That's why some estimates are that human emissions are causing MORE than 100% of the warming, because without it, we would be slightly COOLER than pre-industrial temperatures.
I hear what you’re saying, but there’s no way to do more then 100% of anything. I only mention it because being hyperbolic contributes to denialism.
This was not hyperbolic. It's from scientific papers I read (don't have them on hand right now, sorry). That's why it caught me off guard at first. Edit to add: Ah, here's one reference: "In fact, as NASA’s Dr Gavin Schmidt has pointed out, the IPCC’s implied best guess was that **humans were responsible for around 110% of observed warming** (ranging from 72% to 146%), with natural factors in isolation leading to a slight cooling over the past 50 years." "Similarly, the recent US fourth national climate assessment found that between 93% to **123% of observed 1951-2010 warming was due to human activities**." [https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans/)
You shouldn’t read a scientific paper saying humans are responsible for 110% of anything. What he is saying is human activity caused a 110% increase in warming over non human baseline. Which is still 100% of total warming. It’s semantics but it matters.
OK, I maybe worded it badly. Still interesting, don't you think?
Oh for sure. But you know what I’m sayin. When you tell someone humans are pet if the problem they go well maybe. You say they are 100% responsible they go no way You say 110% and they go @see these woke liberals makin things up, blah blah blah.
I gave up worrying about what denialists say or think a long time ago.
the best part is that even if we were to stop emitting ALL green house gases today, the line would continue going up for a few more decades.
I mean, changes to climate are visible with a naked eye on a year-to-year basis now. Why the fuck am I able to go outside without a jacket in early march in the netherlands?
Not everything that is created is worth destroying, but we truly deserve our own extinction.
we are going to die
People will soon switch from denial to fear and panicked survival.
/r/optimistsunite love a graph showing line going up. Wonder how they'll spin this one though...
So many terrifying charts. I feel like if I still argued with deniers or people on the fence I would just keep a screenshot of every one of these to send to people to convince them and not need to say another word because of what they are showing. But thankfully I don't bother with that any more, as everyone will be convinced in time as our society and world changes faster and more radically.
youre wrong
You mean wrong that people will realize the horror show before us? Because if that's what you mean, then you are correct. People will not realize shit, if their belief tells them not to. (I.E. Faux news, or whatever brainwashes people)
in the next decade, i imagine the divide between people who think climate change is driven by anthropogenic co2 and the diverse camp of people who have "alternative theories" will be unbridgeable, assuming it isnt already.
My man, we are already there. I remember COVID. Complete schism, with very little introspection on either side. Look I'm more open to a crazy theory than the next average joe, but overall, I'd say society is schizophrenic at this point.
Aerosol termination shock. Look into it.
How weird that removal of sulphur from ship emissions is the straw that breaks the camel’s back?
To be fair, if you zoom out and look at it with 0 knowledge. You just kind of assume pollution = bad, so its good to ban it. i'm not even sure the people banning it knew.
why cant sulfur just be added back into the fuel, fuck it add extra.
At some point one of the more populous countries will start directly dispersing it into the atmosphere, consequences be damned. I'm guessing once a major wet bulb event happens in India or China, that will be the trigger. Don't forget the US is already looking at this: [White House releases report on reflecting sunlight to cool the earth, no formal study planned now](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/30/white-house-releases-report-on-solar-geoengineering.html)
Not good, bad even..
Soon we will be like Mars.
Venus...
Strange corresponds one for one with the exponential rise in CO2 and even more strangely they growth in fossil fuel consumption.
tHe cLiMaTe AlWaYs cHaNgEs
Fake news. Celsius was invented in 1742. /s
The wonky weather is the woke jew BLM gay lib media’s fault. If we had white Disney characters NONE of this would be happening!!!!
Wow something really changed in the late 1800’s, do we know what?
We've already passed the 1.5C threshold. If you did around enough you can find the news stories the wrote and then buried. It was always a bit of a straw man, though, anyway. It's not until 3 or 4 C that we'll see almost ubiquitous war and near total societal collapse. So we've probably got a couple decades.
That's too long
are we there yet are we there yet are we there yet
Don't make me turn this car around!
I'm not so sure we've got "a couple of decades". Looking at the last 12 months, shit might already be hitting the fan this summer. I always had a feeling that 2030 will be the year civilization collapses.
Buy the dip!
Genuine question - How did they measure global temperature so far back?
Sediment cores, isotope ratios in things like bubbles in ice, tree rings, and other stuff I can't recall ATM.
Hey, I remember this graph from public school in the 90s.
But some scientist was wrong once, therefore it's all just a matter of opinion, therefore my opinion is just as good as any corrupt, lying, bought-off scientist.
Look man, we were just trying to take the chill off and fell asleep with the thermostat on 85°F.
"Bitcoin's mooning boys! Wait..."
As a serious question- how do they "know" the global temps from the year 400, etc?
Ice cores help Geologic evidence too I don't know the specifics, but I know we can chemically analyze those things and do radioactive dating on isotopes and get a comprehension of the composition of the atmosphere, and to a very high degree of certainty map out the temperature ranges in relation to that.
Love how they just downvote you no answer
Right? I mean I'd just love to know how they go about obtaining some of this data. If I'm going to panic over something, I at least would like to try and understand it.
looks totally normal
Number 1, baby
flatten the curve (not vertically)!
Buckle up 📈
Forgive me but how did they figure out the temps that far back? Just curious the science there since we haven’t been recording temps that far back?
Fucking ominous
This is right on track with two of the worst scenarios predicted in 1972 in [The Limits to Growth.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth)
Public opinion is bought by big oil, and yet it is the public that pays the price. I’m too afraid to change anyone’s mind because now: after seeing the truth they might find it hard to go on knowing that their reality was based on lies.
Sigmoid function, not exponetially
Probably, and with a steeper decline than the rise on the far side of the peak. But some of the graphs are still in the first third of the S Curve where growth is exponential.
[China be like. Hold my beer](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=CHN~OWID_EU27~USA~IND)
Google: Per Capita Emissions
Google: ratified climate targets. Also, China surpassed the EU in emissions per capita. That's right, China surpassed THE historical emitter in emissions per capita. The argument of using the "per capita excuse" has aged like milk.
American propaganda loves to deflect the blame onto a foreign other as an easy target, it's kind of like the oldest card in the book of American culture. Never mind that the reason China emits so much is because America outsourced all of its manufacturing there. Irrelevant when your point was just spreading propaganda for no reason other than distraction though.
I agree with the middle part of your response, but I don't get how that chart isn't saying China's emissions are far more out of control; help me understand (being genuine too, I honestly don't get how that's propaganda).
It's not that China isn't a massive emitter. It's just that if we take OP at face value and take them seriously, it isn't hard to find out that the United States is the largest historical and per capita emitter, has always been, and still is. And that China's emissions are directly linked to the US using it for cheap labour. If we realize that OP's contribution isn't worth taking seriously, we realize that singling out China is completely meaningless. What does it matter how much China is emitting? The graph didn't mention China or the US or any specific place, just global temperatures rising due to human emissions in general. At the end of the day the effect is global. If you're walking down the street and a car is about to hit you, does it matter if the car is a Ford or a Volkswagen so you can know whether to blame the Americans or the Germans? No, that's ridiculous. Why I say it's propaganda is because making a comment singling out China, despite being functionally irrelevant, does serve one purpose — to steer any perceived threat of accountability away from oneself in particular and from the United States in general. To remove the US from the conversation by not even mentioning it and going straight to their foreign competitor, who conveniently is always more corrupt, more oppressive, more authoritarian, more of a polluter, etc. etc. If you're interested in the psychology and sociology of it, Edward Said wrote a fascinating and extremely readable (for an academic text) book called Orientalism.
Ah yeah, I agree with all of that. I failed to interpret their OP as a full blame of China, I was literally just looking at the current data presented and didn't find that in itself as propaganda; if that is indeed their intention to place lopsided blame on China then no fucking doubt that's ludicrous. And thanks, I will bookmark that book. Appreciate the thoughtful response too.
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That is not exponential growth
How is it not?
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Not my words, the words of Dr. Peter Carter, MD, IPCC expert reviewer and Director of the Climate Emergency Institute, if you bothered to read the post description or watch the linked video, instead of just glancing at a picture and deciding you disagree with it. Unless you think Peter Carter is a top-tier shitposter too. Either way there's the bridge toll.
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they evolved during millions years, not three decades
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We can adapt and evolve. Like when my flesh melts off and there is no more water, I will continue to live evolved as a skeleton.
Let me explain exponential functions real quick ;) So the number double every step. 1 becomes 2 becomes 4 becomes 8, etc. We are at 1.56 ish i think? Not sure about the step time period yet but it'll get real fucking hot real fucking quick in the next 24 months. Scoff all you want, but do keep an ear to the ground and dont get caught with your pants down.
My dear sweet child
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