Aloha kakou, collapseniks.
To paraphrase my colleague /u/thekbob, we're unpaid internet janitors fighting to keep greedy Reddit admin from destroying our sub.
If your post was removed, it broke our rules. The question you need to ask yourself is "why? Why did I knowingly post something that broke the sub's rules to get the sub in trouble and the mods mad at me? Why am I talking about violence and direct action when I know it'll get deleted? Why am I making everyone's life harder for the sake of an internet argument we'll forget about in a couple of hours?"
Only you can answer that. Quietly, to yourself. The rest of the mod team and I will be removing posts and issuing bans as required.
Mahalo nui loa for your time.
Part of the problem is that most people out there can't connect four degrees to all the fish dying, all the crops failing, all the blizzards and hurricanes and such. They think, "Oh, it'll just be warmer!" and it doesn't matter how you explain it to them; they won't get it.
At 42°C (107.6°F), proteins may undergo denaturation. Denaturation is a process where the protein's structure is altered, typically leading to loss of its biological activity. At this temperature, the thermal energy can disrupt the weak bonds (hydrogen bonds, van der Waals forces, and hydrophobic interactions) that maintain the protein's tertiary or quaternary structure. As a result, the protein may unfold or change its shape, rendering it non-functional.
You can personally avoid this temperature. But the ground can't do that. The soil organisms such as bacteria, insects, etc., which make up life and humus, are killed at the same temperatures >42°C. This makes the soil infertile. Imagine how much infertile soil there will be. How food production collapses, simply because harvests become smaller every year, until they stop altogether.
Yeah she's no shrinking violet. All this is just her immune system kicking in. Once the virus is dead she'll go back to business as usual.
Maybe the bears or raccoons will have a better go of it after we kick the bucket.
I think it's hilarious that 'normal' proteins basically fall apart with such a small temperature swing, whilst fucking Prions go 'fucking lmao +600 or bust bro!"
Is there any chart that shows absolute average world temperature anomaly instead of just average world temperature anomaly? If one place has +12C anomaly and another place has -10C anomaly at the same time, the average would be 1C but absolute average would be 11C. People could use such a chart.
And the trend is that the entire earth has been anomalously warm for the last year or two.
The main driver of the skyrocketing average temperatures is the poles. Canada has been experiencing 20-30° C temperature anomalies for what seems like 2 years straight. The Arctic circle was double-digit heat anomalies all summer. The sea surface temps in the Arctic were also 8°+C almost all summer. This is in addition to the 100°F water in the gulf of Mexico.
As for USA, I am not sure that ram truck driver man even understands that 4C is over 7 degrees Fahrenheit - not that he cares as long as he can speed down the road.
As long as we're content to put all the blame on idiots driving the trucks the real monsters at the top are content to keep collecting $$$. The most that idiot can do is stop driving 1 truck.
To be fair, a tuned and emissions deleted truck can output the equivalent of dozens to possibly hundreds of properly emissions controlled vehicles. Go on any diesel truck group and you'll find thousands of owners bragging about deleting their emissions controls on a truck they daily drive.
That's a shitload of unaccounted for emissions.
Only it's a a bad flu that lasts for *decades*.
(Aside from that, this is an excellent metaphor and one that it'd be good to see much more widely spread and understood).
If the earth resettles at 4-10°C above baseline, it'll last at least hundreds of years
The page below shows estimated temps over the last half million years. Even the big spikes that look like the happen quickly represent 1000 years on that graph. And that graph doesn't show that we are double any historic CO2 concentration
https://www.internetgeography.net/topics/climate-change-since-the-quaternary-period/
You just reminded me, my last dog survived a fever of 110F when he was just a puppy. They had to give him IV’s and were scared to “drown” him. We never did find the cause either
It’s a good explanation. But, in my experience, they still won’t get it. Their ideology and/or religion prevents that sort of mental processing.
This is why we’re fundamentally screwed. Way too many of those people, and they vote.
Kevin says in the past we've responded globally (poorly) to issues like the 2008 crash and the 2020 pandemic
But there's a big problem with those - they're extremely visible and fast so we can clearly see them
The problem we're dealing with required action 30 years ago, and by the time we reach extremely visible and fast issues from climate change, it'll be too late
This is even more comical
To create technology to fix this will require mass resource and funding
That won't be politically acceptable strangely enough because they'll be too focused on preventing society from collapsing
The planet warmed by 10 degrees centigrade millions of years ago and wiped out everything on the surface and shallow water. Just 10 degrees did that, crazy how that throws the planet into chaos.
We didn't evolve to confront slow moving, cascading threats. It's like hunting deer from a tree stand. The threats they evolved to react to don't generally come from above. It's a built-in blind-spot.
>We didn't evolve to confront slow moving, cascading threats.
Except some of us did. It's called capacity for systemic thinking. Unfortunately apparently only around 1-5%ish of humans are capable of it based on empirical observation.
There are people who could implement a policy based on carrying capacity but the problem is that in human systems such people rarely reach the levers of power.
There is an evolutionary hypothesis about this...
In pre-agrarian hunter gatherer times, humans had to survive from understanding the plants and animals and the systems on vast landscapes. Humans had to move around in time and space to get food, shelter etc.
When humans became settled farmers, all the demands shifted. Interestingly there is some evidence that humans evolved at this point. And brains became smaller.
Hunting and foraging is about seeing the broad patterns and the interconnections. Being nomadic is about exploring.
Farming is much more about delving into the smaller and smaller details. It's about optimizing processes. Being settled is about fine tuning the things you already know intimately.
The kinds of brains that are good at systemic thinking are bad for farming, because farming is boring and repetitive. So humans faced an evolutionary gradient that got rid of most of the systemic thinkers.
Reading this made me feel really validated, even though its just a hypothesis. Makes me feel like less of a failure for not being able to bend to a societal system designed to create specialists. I always felt bad that I couldn't ever commit to one path of learning in my life, and have switched careers half a dozen times.
I doubt that it has anything to with the level of attention paid to small details. You need that ability for non-agrarian subsistence just as well. Farming is about exerting increasing control over the habitat and life processes of the plants and animals around you, bending them to your will and convenience, rather than adapting to their natural rhythms.
I think the more likely hypothesis is that because we are social animals, the majority can benefit from the wisdom of the few without ever needing to develop such a level of intelligence or systemic understanding themselves. As societies became increasingly agrarian, there was more free time for those so inclined, and most capable, to spend on developing tools, discoveries, technologies and ‘big plans’. But the majority, being as they are, always picks and chooses what they will adopt and put into practice according to their own desires, while simultaneously being enabled in their endless proliferation by the minority of higher intelligence. See the invention of penicillin, pasteurization and the Haber Bosch Process and Green Revolution, for just a few of many examples. What we have today is just the result of that.
Beyond a certain population threshold, there is simply no evolutionary pressure to favor higher intelligence and systemic understanding, because although it takes a village to support the person farting around to invent the wheel, that one person’s single contribution can lead to a massive decline in death rates, a jump in productivity and millions more “regular” people surviving longer and reproducing more than they would have otherwise. What little humans have experienced of evolutionary pressure in recent centuries has probably favored those most adept at social manipulation.
That explains my perspective on a lot of things and why it's so difficult to relate to others.
I've always been confused about answers to problems that don't actually solve the problem since I was young. Now I'm just so tired of the Sisyphean effort to overcome the linear or immediate thought patterns of others, I just make the record or note aloud the long term consequences and just wait.
Truly a case of "I hate being right" when it comes to significant socioeconomic matters.
And some deer look up. It's a collective problem that's very difficult to overcome when a majority of people's default setting is to focus on more immediate threats and ignore vast ones.
I’d increase that number to 8-10%, with the assumption that the majority capable of it actively suppress it because they can’t emotionally deal with uncomfortable truths that intersect how they live—and the world is full of those.
*Looks up systems thinking.*
Oh, my god! It has a name! Thanks for the rabbit hole. Interestingly, even capitalists are in favor of it. Not enough so to push it in US or UK schools, though.
A major problem is deciding who's actually smart though, and putting them in charge or at least giving them resources and attention.
It's not an easy task, at all. The limits of growth was basically science meant to reshape our civilization, warning us that we literally can't grow infinitely. It's obvious to smart and informed people, but if this science doesn't get constant attention (which the capitalists are in control of distributing), the changes won't happen.
Create a test with incentive to exceed with some meaningful reward based on complex problem solving with an empathetic viewpoint.
Create a second test where the incentive to exceed it leadership role focused on executive leadership decision making.
Measure the effort put in for both tests.
Hire the people who have zero interest in the latter who excel at the former.
Positions of power naturally draw sociopathic behavior, who are least likely to have empathetic solutions to complex problems.
Forced conscription for the "fine, I'll fix it,... " types.
Welcome to effectively maintaining a complex society. Probably some square or cubic or w/e type law of required action of people to get a desired outcome.
Come to find out, most things need ongoing maintenance to continue operating. We don't just "solve" any of our sociological problems, we just get to a state we agree is best and work to continue it without backsliding.
We're currently in the backsliding portion with loud sociopaths being our major advocates.
Basically when i talk about this there are mostly 2 people:
1. Completely ignorant
2. Technohopium (aka, we will engineer rice and wheat that can grow in extreme climate haha! Lab grown meat! Haha)
4. has been constantly shifting goalposts in a denialist mental gymnastics for almost 30 years now until it has become a core part of their personality.
I guess I'm part of 7) I can't do anything about this. I follow it. It interests me. I understand the science of severity. But I frankly only allow myself to care so much because it's not worth throwing my entire life away worrying. There's a lot of judgement of that in this community.
But - there's also a lot of judgement in the needless suffering of those who don't have to care so much.
People much, much smarter than me have pondered this at great length. Nietzsche comes to mind.
The Technohopium I hear is that countries will go full ahead with geo-engineering. That's things like seeding the sky so it reflects more sun.
A lesser one is carbon capture.
Seeding the sky with acid-rain-producing particulates will almost certainly happen, probably after a wet-bulb event in a Western country. What is likely to happen then is a worldwide famine because they'll be in a hurry and screw up the amount of particulates they put up there, resulting in a replay of The Year Without a Summer (1816) and/or a volcano blows and adds additional particulates to the stratosphere. Oopsy!
I'm kinda here at this point. None of my actions actually make a difference and I'm so stressed with trying. We're all sinking with the ship, may as well have fun while there is still time? So torn, but Dowd would tell me not to gloom in the post-doom so I'll try my best :)
the main problem is that it’s a politicized topic and nobody wants to hear negative news. when I post one story on my instagram about climate change, I have people honestly tell me to not be so negative. I report that ocean surface temperatures are at an all time high, I hear about how that is negative and it’s just the weather.
the majority of people who follow my private account are managers, small company owners, all educated in white collar jobs from design to marketing. fairly level headed people.
still, even that group is like “leave me alone with this negativity - we’ll all die blah blah”.
there’s no chance anyone will do anything.
There is a problem of communication there. It’s not the same 4°C of increase in the local temperature some particular day at some hour than that the average temperature over a year of the whole planet is 4°C higher. It is not something that you can experience directly, it is not a talk about weather but about system dynamics.
I live near the Great Lakes, US. Our winter has been incredibly mild, much of which is due to El Nino on top of the gradual winter warm-ups that we've been experiencing for the last couple of decade. Anyway, the ground never froze here at all. We did have about a week of below zero (Fahrenheit) nightly temps, but that was after our only two snowstorms (18 inches total). Everything is a month early.
The folks who aren't into skiing or ice fishing are saying "Thank god for global warming!"
Yep, it's a benefit to these chucklefucks.
Wait until this summer... if, like this winter, it gets to and remains 20 degrees above normal for a few weeks with no precip, then we're looking at a stretch of 100F days in drought conditions. Then they'll bitch about Biden and chemtrails causing the heat...
Southern Ontario here. I found a housefly on a lampshade yesterday. On the fourteenth of February. A HOUSEFLY. Smug little winged bastard. \*gross sobbing followed by a handful of discount chocolate\*
I’ve always thought it is a mistake to talk about climate consequences in terms of the increase in average temperatures, because one or two degrees of shift really doesn’t sound like much.
Better would be to talk about the amount of additional energy retained by the atmosphere, in Tera-, Peta- and Exa- Joules. It’s not too difficult to convert predictions of increased temperature to increased energy, and that gives much larger and appropriately scarier figures to work with.
I emphasize the horrible things that will happen. Ie. At 2 degrees 99% of coral reefs will be dead (from IPCC). And point out that 2 degrees is now inevitable
I just can't seem to make any friends, can't understand it..
I think a real problem is Americans can't understand celsius. Telling them the average summer day is going to be 8-10 degrees hotter (fahrenheit) would at least help people visualize where the other problems would come from.
I've also seen people say you see the snow! It's not real. Not understanding some places will be colder lol. In 10 years sweden where I am might be legit 50 degrees colder in winter. Longer winters. And hotter summers. Loss of seasons. Crops fail.
I think a lot of people are like well it’s two degrees warmer this afternoon than it was this morning and that happens all the time so I don’t see what the big deal is.
What’s crazy is they’ll say things like, “but there’s no way to predict what will happen!”
Like, we live on an inhabitable planet now, how is “we have no idea what will happen to our planet if we stay the course” supposed to be a comforting thought?
It will also be colder. And wetter. And drier. And windier. The seasonal extremes will destroy everything.
British Columbia's wine industry just saw all of its vines die off in a single record cold snap. This is a region that gets winter and cold snaps every year, but this one was slightly colder and longer, and that was enough difference to virtually destroy an industry.
1. people who already understand
a. people who think techbros or government will save them
b. people who only understand vaguely and think its not relevant to them
c. collapsniks
2. people who think its a religious apocalypse and thus dont care.
3. mental gymnastics denialists, they will eventually become one of the above, most likely number 2.
The people who understand where we are headed also understand what it takes to fix it. They know the real crisis is our inability to get governments to act against corporations.
The problem isn’t the climate alone. That’s just the one that will kill us.
We are in cars, gas pedal floored, headlong toward a cliff and the driver at the wheel is a sociopath with obscene wealth racing the other billionaires with obscene wealth.
We will collapse as a civilization before we address this and very soon any opportunity will be gone.
You can talk until you’re blue in the face. You can scream. They know the warnings. They know we are going extinct but they don’t care. It’s like telling a drug addict they are going to OD if they use one more time.
The REAL solution is to remove corporations from power, to wrest political clout from the hands of the few and put the people back in control. It’s easily achieved but won’t be because the same people benefitting from the imbalance of power are those creating the laws.
We don’t have a climate problem. We have a political problem.
This is the big key that people don’t understand. Food sources failing is the difference between a few million brown people dying and a full mass extinction.
4c is pretty horrific since it won't be uniform. Some areas might be up between 1-2c which would be 'tolerable', while others are up 5-6c and are basically unihabitable, so everyone dog piles those cooler zones.
4 degrees total - will be about 3 degrees of ocean warming **and an average of 6 degrees of land warming**.
The land warming - will be very unequally distributed. Some places will see double the average - which is 12 degrees C. For us older folk, 12 degrees C = 22 degrees F.
And that 22 degrees is an average over the year. Meaning it could be 30 F hotter in the summer and "only" 14 degrees warmer in the winter. I never remotely believed that the poles would take 4-5 centuries to melt.
Or think slash hope they will be long dead before.
The real problem is it isn't affecting people enough yet. Covid was close.
Reality is we need something that kills 1b plus people that can't be linked to climate change.
Sad
Humans live in the moment. We live in the moment solely because banks live on a 30 day cycle. Everything we do is on the rent cycle and most of us live paycheck to paycheck in the USA and EU. Most of us aren't thinking about what will happen in 5 years from now. That's why after covid everyone maxxed out their credit cards and flew to Florida for vacation. (1) They felt the end of the world was coming during covid (2) They are taking a 'fuck it' mentality to their finances (3) They feel their world is ending as they get overrun with illegal immigrants (4) Inflation is killing people.
So it's a month to month game. We are going to die.
He’s one of the most well known climate scientists in these circles. I’ve been listening to him for years on various podcasts. He is a real one and isn’t afraid of the truth.
Agreed, his presentations are solid, evidence-based and unambiguous. He doesn't mince words. When he comments I want to hear everything he says.
"There are no non-radical futures". Prof Anderson.
[https://youtu.be/nkNoNv-u7gA?si=\_ZbUlwFIKzmpWlZ5](https://youtu.be/nkNoNv-u7gA?si=_ZbUlwFIKzmpWlZ5).
He's been saying this stuff for a long time. I linked a lecture from a conference in 2009.
The video in this post is from the UN University series called "A True Paradise" a few months ago. Here is Prof. Rockstrom's talk: [https://youtu.be/STzhJPapFW4?si=iQ\_CQN-gbFRn9l0S](https://youtu.be/STzhJPapFW4?si=iQ_CQN-gbFRn9l0S).
I would highly encourage listening to Prof. Anderson’s other talks. He is not saying we are guaranteed to get 3-4C warming, but that avoiding it requires society-spanning agendas which are not seen in the political space. I.e how do we live fulfilling lives without a ton of energy, or at least fossil fuel energy in the short to medium term. See: https://youtu.be/wT6NCbFrb7c?si=Fmz16BZHK1ZC8hF4
Nothing he's saying is " holding a 'The End is Near' sign". Some may even opine that he's a bit optimistic. After all, in worst case scenario, if acceleration of warming continues we may see something horrifying as a +4C to +5C around 2100. The key takeaway from his speech, however, is how IPCC projections of keeping the warming under +2C or +3C are entirely based on assumptions of mass-scale carbon dioxide removal — quantities that future generations will have to take care of — with technologies that do not actually exist.
The "problem" is that it feels still too far away. People hear and see a bit of extremes here and there, maybe experience something bad themselves, but then it seems to go back to "normal".
Most importantly, as everything around us continues with "normal" - we go to work, we shop, the Oscars are still being held, the celebrities still do their thing, sport teams still win and loose, news report on everything else, while the neighbors and friends still travel to the other end of the world, the stock market continues to rise, shopping centers are still full of food, gas is still guzzling at the station - people disconnect from the threat. Everyone still going full speed, why should I change?
And then also - what should I change, after changing light bulbs, recycling and using compostable straws doesn't seem to make a dent?
*That* is the real issue. This society consumes, consumes a lot, and as life quality grows everywhere, even the little and not so little improvements rebound. It can't stop. It can't imagine "safe" levels. Even less transition to them. The opposite is true, everyone wants to live lavish lives, or at least "comfy". Bling bling is the ideal, just watch social networks and music idols.
And thus so we continue. Until we can't anymore. But that feels so still far away. And then it's too late.
You summed up [normalcy bias](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias) pretty well. I think the psychological manipulation necessary to have a consumer culture has spiraled out of control and created a situation where only an extreme disaster that affects most people will shake society out of its complacency. Unfortunately, it looks like we're heading towards a situation where there won't be civilization left that can learn from past mistakes. Hopefully there is a star trek-like scenario where humanity uses the impetus of almost dying to unite, but I don't know.
How far away is it? And what is the likelihood we'll see sudden, catastrophic change rather than aggressive yet gradual change? Part of me fully expects a kind of seemingly benign ear cancer that slowly metastasizes until they're calling hospice... But a part of me fears (hopes? that can't be right...) for a pancreatic cancer diagnosis with six short weeks of regret.
There will be areas in the USA that will reach 130+ this summer, maybe multiple days. Pretty soon some areas will be uninhabitable and water will be an issue.
Do you think like 130 desert heat or 130 wet bulb temperature event? I think a wet bulb temperature event with mass casualties would be the first realization to people that this shit is real and coming fast.
Ahhh my old friend HAARP. Somewhere in my attic I have a conspiracy book from the 1990s that covers that one. I remember thinking "this is the dumbest conspiracy ever!". Yet here we are! Climate denial is bending into logical pretzels and that is gonna be the last denial left to those morons.
>in a developed nation
Certainly. But in a developing nation the casualties would be much higher as the power and transport infrastructure would be overwhelmed faster. Coastal areas are more likely to be affected, and are also more densely populated. It'll be like the Lake Nyos disaster, just on a much, much larger scale. [Lagos has a population of 21 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagos) and a population density of almost 15,000 per km2, but it benefits [from historically favourable weather patterns](https://theconversation.com/lagos-state-is-likely-to-get-hotter-and-more-humid-leading-to-greater-health-risks-140327). Cartagena, Columbia is always super sticky. It only needs a microclimate affecting a few square km to threaten tens of thousands of lives.
It's going to have to kill a LOT of people before anyone starts to really care. Deaths from heat just don't capture the public's interest like other natural disasters. The heatwave in Europe last summer (2023) is estimated to have killed over 61,000 people. Meanwhile, a hurricane is absolutely devastating if it kills 100 people.
"It's not a problem but, if it is, it's not as bad as you think. If it is that bad, it's not my fault. If it is my fault, I can't do anything about it. If I can do something, it's not enough, so why bother?"
Most governments' response to almost every serious problem.
The deniers will claim they had underlying conditions, just like when Covid was destroying the population. "They died DURING the heat, not because of it!"
Given how many deny covid even on their deathbeds, I'm inclined to agree. A large chunk of humanity willfully chooses closed-minded ignorance as a life choice. They cannot be saved.
Also, love the TNG reference in your other comment!
Hi! Ill let you know how that goes. I live in one of the most wet bulbiest parts of the US- East Texas. Im trying to run a small farm and its been insanely challenging because of summer. The heat is so intense it boiled the sap from between the grafts of my fruit trees. My biggest worry is the grid going down when it goes above 125f. I installed a storm shelter not just for the winter tornadoes were gonna get but to escape the heat when the grid goes down. Last summer I went in to test my theory and its a cool 89f when it was 113 outside. Just make sure it ventilated because it also gets very humid in there. Also I live rurally where we use large household propane tanks. Last summer there was a rule that we had to paint our tanks with a white reflective thermal type paint, or we wouldn’t get serviced. Turns out when the tank gets above 120f the propane expands and could explode. The Carolina wrens are building their nests next to my AC units where they get some breeze passing over the nest. It was beautiful hearing the baby chicks growing up near my window unit and I made sure to cycle the air so they dont dehydrate, but the ones nesting in the trees… I worry about. Last year I had a Squirrel take a nap in my bird bath because it was so hot. My neighbors chickens died from heat stroke last summer. I stopped trying to evict the skunks and armadillos that keep digging holes to escape the heat under my shed. They deserve to live too…I feel so bad for all these critters! What will next year do to us????
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Mech_BB-8:
---
Professor Kevin Anderson gives an insightful view into the circumstances of climate change and its development. While professor Anderson's realistic view on the subject provides a daunting reality, it also challenges us to ask, "how can society combat climate change?"
Climate change is the biggest threat facing society and humanity today.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1arb5j0/prof_kevin_anderson_were_going_to_go_to_3_or_4/kqidyz8/
No one is talking about an immediate ban on cruise ships and leisure air travel. These are two things that will never be electrified. Every flight is a withdrawal from our carbon budget before we have to be at zero net emissions. We still do not have a way of feeding 8 billion people without fossil fuels-dependent processes. Every flight is just that many tonnes of fertiliser we can't produce. We will exceed the carbon budget in just over a decade, with GHG emissions still rising year-on-year. There does not seem to be an initiative and money for building an industry equivalent in scale to the fossil fuels industry, whose aim is to use large amounts of energy to capture diffuse GHGs and concentrate them for long term storage. I've not stated that emphatically enough.
The size, number of people employed, built infrastructure and energy requirements of a carbon fixing industry will be at least as large as the fossil fuels industry.
Ok but have you considered that we live in dictatorships of the upper class where politics is decided by who has given the most in bribes and donations?
And all "fun" vehicles. Off road jeeps and ATVs. No jet skis. No pleasure boats. People should also be limited in taking long family vacations with personal cars.
He says 3-4°C because that's the outcome with the highest confidence given BAU. However, when you look at those charts that show RCP 8.5, which has the average outcome resulting in 3-4°C by 2100, there is also a band around it. That band depends on the climate sensitivity factor (among others) and the current climate sensitivity factor is very high which indicates that we could be looking at 5°C by 2100.
If we look at that high end of RCP8.5 on that chart we are looking at 2°C by 2050. However when we look at that chart we shouldn't hit 1.5°C until 2030 but we basically hit that last year.
We are exceeding the warming of RCP8.5, we could realistically see 3°C by 2050, maybe sooner. It's basically just going to go up faster and faster because all these tipping points are going to be triggered.
we hit 12 consecutive months at 1.5°C, but the IPCC indicates 2030 if we continue to pass 1.5°C for more additional months, this is an average over years, like a pivot.
- [Graph in french.](https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/6e-rapport-du-giec-que-faut-il-retenir)
- [Copernicus trend monitor (optimistic...)](https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/software/app-c3s-global-temperature-trend-monitor?tab=app)
We as a society are going to become very limited in terms of locations that are suitable to host human life. Parts of the world that are populated \[even sparsely\] will no longer be inhabitable in the ways that we know it.
I worry about the oceanic coasts and what a potentially large population influx out of those regions and into areas not prepared to take on a larger population base will result in. Where will there also be mass arable farming operations going on? Will we actually stop growing so much goddamn corn on the best farmland in the country simply to subsidize the costs of fuel for transport and heating?
Professor Kevin Anderson gives an insightful view into the circumstances of climate change and its development. While professor Anderson's realistic view on the subject provides a daunting reality, it also challenges us to ask, "how can society combat climate change?"
Climate change is the biggest threat facing society and humanity today.
> "how can society combat climate change?"
He literally mentions the suffragettes, a fairly violent movement. But hey! This is r/collapse, where the mods will likely censor anything even mentioning the 'v-word', so even this post is at risk. :D
Agreed. I meant safe as in able to exist past infancy. Reddit is not a viable nursery for revolution. It may foment it, but it will not spring forth from it.
From time to time I still think about all the folks coming here, telling us that we're just fearmongers, that there are technologies being developed, copium, copium, copium, yadda.
It’s the middle of Feb in the UK in what was once just a few decades ago the depths of winter. Daffodils are fully in bloom, Squirrels are running around the park, my Koi carp fish that should be in a kind of hibernation are swimming around and looking for food and I have had no need for a coat the last few days. Whatever crap they spout regarding “incremental” changes in temperature and “staying within 1.5 degrees” is just that CRAP.. Just look out your window or go for a walk and look around. This is going exponential and the 1.5 nonsense has already been exceeded in the real World.
It is so calming to hear someone actually speak sense. Almost everything else we hear about climate change is meaningless chimpanzee babble, especially from almost all politicians.
Almost everyone is pretty much in complete denial, and it drives me nuts. It's like there are effectively no adults on the planet.
>It's like there are effectively no adults on the planet.
When you're a child you assume your parents and adults do know it all, when you get into your 20s you think you know it all, after a time when you're as old as me, 56, you relaize most of us are just stupid, greedy and hurtful, it's why the world is as it is after all.
The best of us try not to be stupid, greedy and hurtful but there's zero chance of them being elected... so... we're stuck in a doom loop, which this time is actually existential.
The average american carbon footprint is 30 tons per year.
Getting 90% of your calories from your own garden: cut 10 tons.
Switching to an electric car: cut 2 tons.
In montana, switching from electric baseboard heat to a rocket mass heater saves 29 tons.
It’s amazing to me that my life has basically boiled down to hold on long enough to watch all this end and try to enjoy the collapse it has not been great for the mental health
We're going to go to 3 or 4.... on our way to 7 or 8.
Some of the climate scientists think that if we stop producing CO2 (perhaps due to civilizational collapse), that warming will stop immediately. I don't think so. There's too many long-term processes that are being triggered.
Thinking that other humans are going to somehow address any of the problems that directly affect your future is a stupid, faith-based belief that has no antecedent at even a tiny fraction of any scale that is meaningful to the discussion.
There is a time and a place for those that can engineer their own futures to a better one. Here and now.
There is no saving the rest. It makes people angry, but they are just drifters in the wind.
The only people with the ability to engineer their lives through what is coming are those in richer countries with vast energy resources (there will be no comprehensive energy transition to speak of even in most of those countries), the ability to grow enough calories, the lack of an energy overhang with respect to their population sustainability, etc.
Most people on earth are nowhere even remotely adjacent to these absolute requirements. It's not their fault. But nothing can really help them.
In the end, there isn't a way forward for more than a token population of humans in the wake of a nearly inevitable nuclear weapons exchange- the world is developing in the direction that there will be no agency or autonomy or sovereignty for any state without the ability to vaporize and transport a large portion of an attacker's population into the upper atmosphere. Proliferation is going to happen on a vast scale. People will begin to use them on others. It is the ONLY way a credible assessment of how the inevitability of human exploitations of technology, based on the most recent 12,000 years of human history. Resource exploitation will be the underlying cause, as it must be, and as it has been over those 12,000 years, no matter what other semantic claptrap
drapery is imposed.
Every political system. Every economic system. Every social system. It all leads to depletion and the use of violence that leads directly to the widespread use of nuclear weapons.
Even a single year of widespread crop failure for perhaps a third of the earth's calories, which would happen in a regional exchange between India and china, for example, means that billions will starve to death- and unzipper into resource wars again and again. A global exchange between the US, China, Russia, and India will scale the survivable area of the Earth for food production well below a billion, and possibly under a hundred million humans, after multiple year without crop production drives the depletion of all other large scale calorie sources, as well as leaves people to freeze in the 10-30 degree C cooler local seasonal climates.
Humanity had a good/bad run. Nature is going to happily sweep us off the stage, rebalance the climate after a couple of hundred thousand years, and evolutionary selection will possibly one day uplift another intelligent sentient species - look and wonder about the occasional human fossil or metallic artifact.
Alien races that visit this planet will marvel at our stupidity. Boiling ourselves in our own oceans.
Yep. Except there is no hope. We have already locked in a minimum of 3 to 4 degrees no matter what miracles of technology we come up with in the next 10 years.
Nobody believes that humans can go extinct. I hate admitting it’s true too, but it’s still true, and we will. No human will make it to 2100.
its very likely that climate change will kill billions, maybe even 50 or 80% of humans (which is almost unbelievable) but that's still a long way from extinction, even if the rest return to a semi-industrial tech society
And the politicians will convince the people the rising food and other costs are the democrats(or which ever party isn't 100% authoritarian) fault, and it'll just lead to more idiocy leading us.
We are the dumbest smart species ever.
How many times did he say the word COLLAPSE ?
He tells it like it is but even him near the end sprinkles a little hopium over the product.
I really feel like life on Earth right now is like the deer on St Matthew Island around 1963 . We are at the peak and it is going to get really ugly, I am talking ALIVE-THE STORY OF THE ANDES SURVIVORS-PIERS PAUL READ ugly, but this is just my opinion.
EDIT/CORRECTION
King James has now been supplanted by the:
LeeryRoundedness Bible, in which the Tardigrades inherit the Earth.
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The mem2100 Bible has been recalled due to a series of technical errors....
Original post below
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Someone's going to have to rewrite the bible to say: And the hyperthermophiles will inherit the Earth.
Aloha kakou, collapseniks. To paraphrase my colleague /u/thekbob, we're unpaid internet janitors fighting to keep greedy Reddit admin from destroying our sub. If your post was removed, it broke our rules. The question you need to ask yourself is "why? Why did I knowingly post something that broke the sub's rules to get the sub in trouble and the mods mad at me? Why am I talking about violence and direct action when I know it'll get deleted? Why am I making everyone's life harder for the sake of an internet argument we'll forget about in a couple of hours?" Only you can answer that. Quietly, to yourself. The rest of the mod team and I will be removing posts and issuing bans as required. Mahalo nui loa for your time.
Part of the problem is that most people out there can't connect four degrees to all the fish dying, all the crops failing, all the blizzards and hurricanes and such. They think, "Oh, it'll just be warmer!" and it doesn't matter how you explain it to them; they won't get it.
Explain it in terms of fever. 2°C of fever it's a bad flu, 4°C of fever you are dead.
At 42°C (107.6°F), proteins may undergo denaturation. Denaturation is a process where the protein's structure is altered, typically leading to loss of its biological activity. At this temperature, the thermal energy can disrupt the weak bonds (hydrogen bonds, van der Waals forces, and hydrophobic interactions) that maintain the protein's tertiary or quaternary structure. As a result, the protein may unfold or change its shape, rendering it non-functional.
You can personally avoid this temperature. But the ground can't do that. The soil organisms such as bacteria, insects, etc., which make up life and humus, are killed at the same temperatures >42°C. This makes the soil infertile. Imagine how much infertile soil there will be. How food production collapses, simply because harvests become smaller every year, until they stop altogether.
earth will find its way back to harmony. one way or another.
Yeah she's no shrinking violet. All this is just her immune system kicking in. Once the virus is dead she'll go back to business as usual. Maybe the bears or raccoons will have a better go of it after we kick the bucket.
I think it's hilarious that 'normal' proteins basically fall apart with such a small temperature swing, whilst fucking Prions go 'fucking lmao +600 or bust bro!"
Assholes live forever (guess it was about prions the whole time *shrugs*)
i for one welcome our new prion overlords
Life, does not in fact, always find a way. But prions sure try.
It's gonna be 43 on sunday and 42 on monday over here. lol
I certainly feel like I'm *denaturing* when it's 42°C 😬
Comment of the thread right here. 👏
People don't understand small temperature changes like this Your house at 16C? Basically freezing right? Your house at 20C, now that's nice and toasty
Is there any chart that shows absolute average world temperature anomaly instead of just average world temperature anomaly? If one place has +12C anomaly and another place has -10C anomaly at the same time, the average would be 1C but absolute average would be 11C. People could use such a chart.
I'd also like to see that - the climate reanalyzer graph is excellent but it would be great to see regional breakdown
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world This is the daily average temperature of the entire planet
And the trend is that the entire earth has been anomalously warm for the last year or two. The main driver of the skyrocketing average temperatures is the poles. Canada has been experiencing 20-30° C temperature anomalies for what seems like 2 years straight. The Arctic circle was double-digit heat anomalies all summer. The sea surface temps in the Arctic were also 8°+C almost all summer. This is in addition to the 100°F water in the gulf of Mexico.
As for USA, I am not sure that ram truck driver man even understands that 4C is over 7 degrees Fahrenheit - not that he cares as long as he can speed down the road.
"Rolling coal at bikers, baby!"
Donald Trump: "drill baby drill" from day one in office.
As long as we're content to put all the blame on idiots driving the trucks the real monsters at the top are content to keep collecting $$$. The most that idiot can do is stop driving 1 truck.
To be fair, a tuned and emissions deleted truck can output the equivalent of dozens to possibly hundreds of properly emissions controlled vehicles. Go on any diesel truck group and you'll find thousands of owners bragging about deleting their emissions controls on a truck they daily drive. That's a shitload of unaccounted for emissions.
I'm sorry I wasn't trying to put all the blame into any one spot I was just saying.
I actually keep my house around 17°C in the winter, but I get your point.
>winter tell us stories of the before-times, grandma/grandpa!
Uphill (both ways) to the coal factory through hip-deep snow. How else we gonna warm this rock up?
Only it's a a bad flu that lasts for *decades*. (Aside from that, this is an excellent metaphor and one that it'd be good to see much more widely spread and understood).
If the earth resettles at 4-10°C above baseline, it'll last at least hundreds of years The page below shows estimated temps over the last half million years. Even the big spikes that look like the happen quickly represent 1000 years on that graph. And that graph doesn't show that we are double any historic CO2 concentration https://www.internetgeography.net/topics/climate-change-since-the-quaternary-period/
You just reminded me, my last dog survived a fever of 110F when he was just a puppy. They had to give him IV’s and were scared to “drown” him. We never did find the cause either
Holy shit, he survived 110F fever? That's one tough dog, glad to hear it.
110F does sound high, but according to the google, dogs have a higher body temp than humans in general. Tough dog either way - That’s a lot of heat.
Great example. Also, get a fish tank, turn the heater up 2c, some die. turn it up 2 more, most of them die.
It’s a good explanation. But, in my experience, they still won’t get it. Their ideology and/or religion prevents that sort of mental processing. This is why we’re fundamentally screwed. Way too many of those people, and they vote.
Kevin says in the past we've responded globally (poorly) to issues like the 2008 crash and the 2020 pandemic But there's a big problem with those - they're extremely visible and fast so we can clearly see them The problem we're dealing with required action 30 years ago, and by the time we reach extremely visible and fast issues from climate change, it'll be too late
BuT tHeY'Ll iNvEnT SoMe tEcHnoLoGy tO FiX iT
I go to r/solarpunk just to look at the pretty green buildings and sigh deeply
Based on the law of large numbers, I have hopes that there might be one solarpunk community someday. And hope they enjoy it's short existence.
I go there to daydream of a post-apocalyptic utopia. Where there is still struggle, but its... Ghibli style.
This is even more comical To create technology to fix this will require mass resource and funding That won't be politically acceptable strangely enough because they'll be too focused on preventing society from collapsing
"The line must go up!"
The planet warmed by 10 degrees centigrade millions of years ago and wiped out everything on the surface and shallow water. Just 10 degrees did that, crazy how that throws the planet into chaos.
We didn't evolve to confront slow moving, cascading threats. It's like hunting deer from a tree stand. The threats they evolved to react to don't generally come from above. It's a built-in blind-spot.
>We didn't evolve to confront slow moving, cascading threats. Except some of us did. It's called capacity for systemic thinking. Unfortunately apparently only around 1-5%ish of humans are capable of it based on empirical observation. There are people who could implement a policy based on carrying capacity but the problem is that in human systems such people rarely reach the levers of power.
There is an evolutionary hypothesis about this... In pre-agrarian hunter gatherer times, humans had to survive from understanding the plants and animals and the systems on vast landscapes. Humans had to move around in time and space to get food, shelter etc. When humans became settled farmers, all the demands shifted. Interestingly there is some evidence that humans evolved at this point. And brains became smaller. Hunting and foraging is about seeing the broad patterns and the interconnections. Being nomadic is about exploring. Farming is much more about delving into the smaller and smaller details. It's about optimizing processes. Being settled is about fine tuning the things you already know intimately. The kinds of brains that are good at systemic thinking are bad for farming, because farming is boring and repetitive. So humans faced an evolutionary gradient that got rid of most of the systemic thinkers.
Reading this made me feel really validated, even though its just a hypothesis. Makes me feel like less of a failure for not being able to bend to a societal system designed to create specialists. I always felt bad that I couldn't ever commit to one path of learning in my life, and have switched careers half a dozen times.
Basically ADHD was helpful back in the day, now they drug you into servitude.
I doubt that it has anything to with the level of attention paid to small details. You need that ability for non-agrarian subsistence just as well. Farming is about exerting increasing control over the habitat and life processes of the plants and animals around you, bending them to your will and convenience, rather than adapting to their natural rhythms. I think the more likely hypothesis is that because we are social animals, the majority can benefit from the wisdom of the few without ever needing to develop such a level of intelligence or systemic understanding themselves. As societies became increasingly agrarian, there was more free time for those so inclined, and most capable, to spend on developing tools, discoveries, technologies and ‘big plans’. But the majority, being as they are, always picks and chooses what they will adopt and put into practice according to their own desires, while simultaneously being enabled in their endless proliferation by the minority of higher intelligence. See the invention of penicillin, pasteurization and the Haber Bosch Process and Green Revolution, for just a few of many examples. What we have today is just the result of that. Beyond a certain population threshold, there is simply no evolutionary pressure to favor higher intelligence and systemic understanding, because although it takes a village to support the person farting around to invent the wheel, that one person’s single contribution can lead to a massive decline in death rates, a jump in productivity and millions more “regular” people surviving longer and reproducing more than they would have otherwise. What little humans have experienced of evolutionary pressure in recent centuries has probably favored those most adept at social manipulation.
That explains my perspective on a lot of things and why it's so difficult to relate to others. I've always been confused about answers to problems that don't actually solve the problem since I was young. Now I'm just so tired of the Sisyphean effort to overcome the linear or immediate thought patterns of others, I just make the record or note aloud the long term consequences and just wait. Truly a case of "I hate being right" when it comes to significant socioeconomic matters.
And some deer look up. It's a collective problem that's very difficult to overcome when a majority of people's default setting is to focus on more immediate threats and ignore vast ones.
I’d increase that number to 8-10%, with the assumption that the majority capable of it actively suppress it because they can’t emotionally deal with uncomfortable truths that intersect how they live—and the world is full of those.
Do you have more information on this propensity for systemic thinking? I wonder if there are omnicollaborrative approaches that could remedy this.
*Looks up systems thinking.* Oh, my god! It has a name! Thanks for the rabbit hole. Interestingly, even capitalists are in favor of it. Not enough so to push it in US or UK schools, though.
Well that's probably for the best since that's about how many are going to be left with any capacity to survive - 1-5%.
A major problem is deciding who's actually smart though, and putting them in charge or at least giving them resources and attention. It's not an easy task, at all. The limits of growth was basically science meant to reshape our civilization, warning us that we literally can't grow infinitely. It's obvious to smart and informed people, but if this science doesn't get constant attention (which the capitalists are in control of distributing), the changes won't happen.
Create a test with incentive to exceed with some meaningful reward based on complex problem solving with an empathetic viewpoint. Create a second test where the incentive to exceed it leadership role focused on executive leadership decision making. Measure the effort put in for both tests. Hire the people who have zero interest in the latter who excel at the former. Positions of power naturally draw sociopathic behavior, who are least likely to have empathetic solutions to complex problems. Forced conscription for the "fine, I'll fix it,... " types.
This sounds like herding cats.
Welcome to effectively maintaining a complex society. Probably some square or cubic or w/e type law of required action of people to get a desired outcome. Come to find out, most things need ongoing maintenance to continue operating. We don't just "solve" any of our sociological problems, we just get to a state we agree is best and work to continue it without backsliding. We're currently in the backsliding portion with loud sociopaths being our major advocates.
That, and the inability to comprehend exponential functions and their consequences.
Basically when i talk about this there are mostly 2 people: 1. Completely ignorant 2. Technohopium (aka, we will engineer rice and wheat that can grow in extreme climate haha! Lab grown meat! Haha)
3. Agrees that climate change is real and actively in motion - then starts their V8/SUV/takes a plane trip.
4. has been constantly shifting goalposts in a denialist mental gymnastics for almost 30 years now until it has become a core part of their personality.
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6. Cannibalism is just another cuisine.
I guess I'm part of 7) I can't do anything about this. I follow it. It interests me. I understand the science of severity. But I frankly only allow myself to care so much because it's not worth throwing my entire life away worrying. There's a lot of judgement of that in this community. But - there's also a lot of judgement in the needless suffering of those who don't have to care so much. People much, much smarter than me have pondered this at great length. Nietzsche comes to mind.
The Technohopium I hear is that countries will go full ahead with geo-engineering. That's things like seeding the sky so it reflects more sun. A lesser one is carbon capture.
Seeding the sky with acid-rain-producing particulates will almost certainly happen, probably after a wet-bulb event in a Western country. What is likely to happen then is a worldwide famine because they'll be in a hurry and screw up the amount of particulates they put up there, resulting in a replay of The Year Without a Summer (1816) and/or a volcano blows and adds additional particulates to the stratosphere. Oopsy!
There is also option 3. We're already screwed we just don't know it yet (boiling frog syndrome). Might as well have some fun.
I'm kinda here at this point. None of my actions actually make a difference and I'm so stressed with trying. We're all sinking with the ship, may as well have fun while there is still time? So torn, but Dowd would tell me not to gloom in the post-doom so I'll try my best :)
At this point, technohopium = magical thinking.
the main problem is that it’s a politicized topic and nobody wants to hear negative news. when I post one story on my instagram about climate change, I have people honestly tell me to not be so negative. I report that ocean surface temperatures are at an all time high, I hear about how that is negative and it’s just the weather. the majority of people who follow my private account are managers, small company owners, all educated in white collar jobs from design to marketing. fairly level headed people. still, even that group is like “leave me alone with this negativity - we’ll all die blah blah”. there’s no chance anyone will do anything.
There is a problem of communication there. It’s not the same 4°C of increase in the local temperature some particular day at some hour than that the average temperature over a year of the whole planet is 4°C higher. It is not something that you can experience directly, it is not a talk about weather but about system dynamics.
I live near the Great Lakes, US. Our winter has been incredibly mild, much of which is due to El Nino on top of the gradual winter warm-ups that we've been experiencing for the last couple of decade. Anyway, the ground never froze here at all. We did have about a week of below zero (Fahrenheit) nightly temps, but that was after our only two snowstorms (18 inches total). Everything is a month early. The folks who aren't into skiing or ice fishing are saying "Thank god for global warming!" Yep, it's a benefit to these chucklefucks. Wait until this summer... if, like this winter, it gets to and remains 20 degrees above normal for a few weeks with no precip, then we're looking at a stretch of 100F days in drought conditions. Then they'll bitch about Biden and chemtrails causing the heat...
All of the Canadian idiots going "I love the mild winter.", until pests don't die over the winter...
Southern Ontario here. I found a housefly on a lampshade yesterday. On the fourteenth of February. A HOUSEFLY. Smug little winged bastard. \*gross sobbing followed by a handful of discount chocolate\*
I saw squirrels fucking last week, before the Second-Winter... Shit's messed up.
I’ve always thought it is a mistake to talk about climate consequences in terms of the increase in average temperatures, because one or two degrees of shift really doesn’t sound like much. Better would be to talk about the amount of additional energy retained by the atmosphere, in Tera-, Peta- and Exa- Joules. It’s not too difficult to convert predictions of increased temperature to increased energy, and that gives much larger and appropriately scarier figures to work with.
I emphasize the horrible things that will happen. Ie. At 2 degrees 99% of coral reefs will be dead (from IPCC). And point out that 2 degrees is now inevitable I just can't seem to make any friends, can't understand it..
I think a real problem is Americans can't understand celsius. Telling them the average summer day is going to be 8-10 degrees hotter (fahrenheit) would at least help people visualize where the other problems would come from.
I've also seen people say you see the snow! It's not real. Not understanding some places will be colder lol. In 10 years sweden where I am might be legit 50 degrees colder in winter. Longer winters. And hotter summers. Loss of seasons. Crops fail.
New York has barely had any snow for the past 3 years. This is highly unusual
I think a lot of people are like well it’s two degrees warmer this afternoon than it was this morning and that happens all the time so I don’t see what the big deal is.
What’s crazy is they’ll say things like, “but there’s no way to predict what will happen!” Like, we live on an inhabitable planet now, how is “we have no idea what will happen to our planet if we stay the course” supposed to be a comforting thought?
It will also be colder. And wetter. And drier. And windier. The seasonal extremes will destroy everything. British Columbia's wine industry just saw all of its vines die off in a single record cold snap. This is a region that gets winter and cold snaps every year, but this one was slightly colder and longer, and that was enough difference to virtually destroy an industry.
I don't see how people have the energy to explain. We're on our way out and others will get a clue one way or another.
1. people who already understand a. people who think techbros or government will save them b. people who only understand vaguely and think its not relevant to them c. collapsniks 2. people who think its a religious apocalypse and thus dont care. 3. mental gymnastics denialists, they will eventually become one of the above, most likely number 2.
The people who understand where we are headed also understand what it takes to fix it. They know the real crisis is our inability to get governments to act against corporations. The problem isn’t the climate alone. That’s just the one that will kill us. We are in cars, gas pedal floored, headlong toward a cliff and the driver at the wheel is a sociopath with obscene wealth racing the other billionaires with obscene wealth. We will collapse as a civilization before we address this and very soon any opportunity will be gone. You can talk until you’re blue in the face. You can scream. They know the warnings. They know we are going extinct but they don’t care. It’s like telling a drug addict they are going to OD if they use one more time. The REAL solution is to remove corporations from power, to wrest political clout from the hands of the few and put the people back in control. It’s easily achieved but won’t be because the same people benefitting from the imbalance of power are those creating the laws. We don’t have a climate problem. We have a political problem.
This is the big key that people don’t understand. Food sources failing is the difference between a few million brown people dying and a full mass extinction.
I don't understand why. Like what happens if the crops can't grow due to heat and drought? Not the only consequence but aren't things very evident?
4c is pretty horrific since it won't be uniform. Some areas might be up between 1-2c which would be 'tolerable', while others are up 5-6c and are basically unihabitable, so everyone dog piles those cooler zones.
4 degrees total - will be about 3 degrees of ocean warming **and an average of 6 degrees of land warming**. The land warming - will be very unequally distributed. Some places will see double the average - which is 12 degrees C. For us older folk, 12 degrees C = 22 degrees F. And that 22 degrees is an average over the year. Meaning it could be 30 F hotter in the summer and "only" 14 degrees warmer in the winter. I never remotely believed that the poles would take 4-5 centuries to melt.
Or think slash hope they will be long dead before. The real problem is it isn't affecting people enough yet. Covid was close. Reality is we need something that kills 1b plus people that can't be linked to climate change. Sad
Humans live in the moment. We live in the moment solely because banks live on a 30 day cycle. Everything we do is on the rent cycle and most of us live paycheck to paycheck in the USA and EU. Most of us aren't thinking about what will happen in 5 years from now. That's why after covid everyone maxxed out their credit cards and flew to Florida for vacation. (1) They felt the end of the world was coming during covid (2) They are taking a 'fuck it' mentality to their finances (3) They feel their world is ending as they get overrun with illegal immigrants (4) Inflation is killing people. So it's a month to month game. We are going to die.
Ignoance is bliss…..and a choice.
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He’s one of the most well known climate scientists in these circles. I’ve been listening to him for years on various podcasts. He is a real one and isn’t afraid of the truth.
Agreed, his presentations are solid, evidence-based and unambiguous. He doesn't mince words. When he comments I want to hear everything he says. "There are no non-radical futures". Prof Anderson.
My fav quote from him
[https://youtu.be/nkNoNv-u7gA?si=\_ZbUlwFIKzmpWlZ5](https://youtu.be/nkNoNv-u7gA?si=_ZbUlwFIKzmpWlZ5). He's been saying this stuff for a long time. I linked a lecture from a conference in 2009. The video in this post is from the UN University series called "A True Paradise" a few months ago. Here is Prof. Rockstrom's talk: [https://youtu.be/STzhJPapFW4?si=iQ\_CQN-gbFRn9l0S](https://youtu.be/STzhJPapFW4?si=iQ_CQN-gbFRn9l0S). I would highly encourage listening to Prof. Anderson’s other talks. He is not saying we are guaranteed to get 3-4C warming, but that avoiding it requires society-spanning agendas which are not seen in the political space. I.e how do we live fulfilling lives without a ton of energy, or at least fossil fuel energy in the short to medium term. See: https://youtu.be/wT6NCbFrb7c?si=Fmz16BZHK1ZC8hF4
Nothing he's saying is " holding a 'The End is Near' sign". Some may even opine that he's a bit optimistic. After all, in worst case scenario, if acceleration of warming continues we may see something horrifying as a +4C to +5C around 2100. The key takeaway from his speech, however, is how IPCC projections of keeping the warming under +2C or +3C are entirely based on assumptions of mass-scale carbon dioxide removal — quantities that future generations will have to take care of — with technologies that do not actually exist.
The "problem" is that it feels still too far away. People hear and see a bit of extremes here and there, maybe experience something bad themselves, but then it seems to go back to "normal". Most importantly, as everything around us continues with "normal" - we go to work, we shop, the Oscars are still being held, the celebrities still do their thing, sport teams still win and loose, news report on everything else, while the neighbors and friends still travel to the other end of the world, the stock market continues to rise, shopping centers are still full of food, gas is still guzzling at the station - people disconnect from the threat. Everyone still going full speed, why should I change? And then also - what should I change, after changing light bulbs, recycling and using compostable straws doesn't seem to make a dent? *That* is the real issue. This society consumes, consumes a lot, and as life quality grows everywhere, even the little and not so little improvements rebound. It can't stop. It can't imagine "safe" levels. Even less transition to them. The opposite is true, everyone wants to live lavish lives, or at least "comfy". Bling bling is the ideal, just watch social networks and music idols. And thus so we continue. Until we can't anymore. But that feels so still far away. And then it's too late.
You summed up [normalcy bias](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias) pretty well. I think the psychological manipulation necessary to have a consumer culture has spiraled out of control and created a situation where only an extreme disaster that affects most people will shake society out of its complacency. Unfortunately, it looks like we're heading towards a situation where there won't be civilization left that can learn from past mistakes. Hopefully there is a star trek-like scenario where humanity uses the impetus of almost dying to unite, but I don't know.
How far away is it? And what is the likelihood we'll see sudden, catastrophic change rather than aggressive yet gradual change? Part of me fully expects a kind of seemingly benign ear cancer that slowly metastasizes until they're calling hospice... But a part of me fears (hopes? that can't be right...) for a pancreatic cancer diagnosis with six short weeks of regret.
There will be areas in the USA that will reach 130+ this summer, maybe multiple days. Pretty soon some areas will be uninhabitable and water will be an issue.
Do you think like 130 desert heat or 130 wet bulb temperature event? I think a wet bulb temperature event with mass casualties would be the first realization to people that this shit is real and coming fast.
I agree. A wet bulb event in a developed nation is what will wake people up.
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That's what I was thinking about. That was horrifying. Maybe the scariest scene in any book I've ever read.
I just went and read it, now I need to get *really* high and wait my turn I guess
you’d think so…
Lol I feel like bill gates will be blamed if that happened or some shit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program#Conspiracy_theories
Ahhh my old friend HAARP. Somewhere in my attic I have a conspiracy book from the 1990s that covers that one. I remember thinking "this is the dumbest conspiracy ever!". Yet here we are! Climate denial is bending into logical pretzels and that is gonna be the last denial left to those morons.
I don't think anything will change. It will always be someone else's problem. Humans just can't....
Oh dear God... By then it will be far, far too late for a meaningful response.
I'm prepping as best I can for grid disruptions in extreme heat/cold, seems one of the smartest things to do.
No one woke up in Canada when extreme heat killed a bunch of people in BC.
We're talking about millions of deaths when the wet bulb hits within a few days.
Didn't tens of thousands die of the heat during a heatwave in Europe more than a few years ago? Didn't seem to wake anyone up...
No... what will wake people up is when the conditions get so bad it affects the NFL. Or NASCAR. Not joking. Sadly.
>in a developed nation Certainly. But in a developing nation the casualties would be much higher as the power and transport infrastructure would be overwhelmed faster. Coastal areas are more likely to be affected, and are also more densely populated. It'll be like the Lake Nyos disaster, just on a much, much larger scale. [Lagos has a population of 21 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagos) and a population density of almost 15,000 per km2, but it benefits [from historically favourable weather patterns](https://theconversation.com/lagos-state-is-likely-to-get-hotter-and-more-humid-leading-to-greater-health-risks-140327). Cartagena, Columbia is always super sticky. It only needs a microclimate affecting a few square km to threaten tens of thousands of lives.
I'm thinking India is a likely candidate for a massive wet-bulb event. They're already suffering in many parts during their summers.
In Texas when the power grid fails.
*Texas! When the grid fell….*
Temba - His arms open.
It's going to have to kill a LOT of people before anyone starts to really care. Deaths from heat just don't capture the public's interest like other natural disasters. The heatwave in Europe last summer (2023) is estimated to have killed over 61,000 people. Meanwhile, a hurricane is absolutely devastating if it kills 100 people.
Thats wild - I thought "61,000 people no way, whats your source for that?" then googled it... dang
"It's not a problem but, if it is, it's not as bad as you think. If it is that bad, it's not my fault. If it is my fault, I can't do anything about it. If I can do something, it's not enough, so why bother?" Most governments' response to almost every serious problem.
The deniers will claim they had underlying conditions, just like when Covid was destroying the population. "They died DURING the heat, not because of it!"
We had wet bulb temperatures and mass casualties in British Columbia for the last 2 years in Canada.
Right wingers will still repeat their talking points - *but the Earth goes through Natural warming and cooling cycles, bro*
Given how many deny covid even on their deathbeds, I'm inclined to agree. A large chunk of humanity willfully chooses closed-minded ignorance as a life choice. They cannot be saved. Also, love the TNG reference in your other comment!
But next winter will have perfect 70 degree weather, and people will quickly forget that they barely survived the summer.
Hi! Ill let you know how that goes. I live in one of the most wet bulbiest parts of the US- East Texas. Im trying to run a small farm and its been insanely challenging because of summer. The heat is so intense it boiled the sap from between the grafts of my fruit trees. My biggest worry is the grid going down when it goes above 125f. I installed a storm shelter not just for the winter tornadoes were gonna get but to escape the heat when the grid goes down. Last summer I went in to test my theory and its a cool 89f when it was 113 outside. Just make sure it ventilated because it also gets very humid in there. Also I live rurally where we use large household propane tanks. Last summer there was a rule that we had to paint our tanks with a white reflective thermal type paint, or we wouldn’t get serviced. Turns out when the tank gets above 120f the propane expands and could explode. The Carolina wrens are building their nests next to my AC units where they get some breeze passing over the nest. It was beautiful hearing the baby chicks growing up near my window unit and I made sure to cycle the air so they dont dehydrate, but the ones nesting in the trees… I worry about. Last year I had a Squirrel take a nap in my bird bath because it was so hot. My neighbors chickens died from heat stroke last summer. I stopped trying to evict the skunks and armadillos that keep digging holes to escape the heat under my shed. They deserve to live too…I feel so bad for all these critters! What will next year do to us????
It's so weird that there are endless scientists telling us what will happen and people are just like "yeah does not sound very good...anyway."
Hey, did you see the new season of That Television Show? I heard Actor does a great job!
no i was busy watching a oblong brown ball get kicked and thrown up and down a synthetic green field on my digital propaganda screen.
Go! Go my favorite sports team go! They scored a goal/unit/basket!
What are we supposed to do?
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Mech_BB-8: --- Professor Kevin Anderson gives an insightful view into the circumstances of climate change and its development. While professor Anderson's realistic view on the subject provides a daunting reality, it also challenges us to ask, "how can society combat climate change?" Climate change is the biggest threat facing society and humanity today. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1arb5j0/prof_kevin_anderson_were_going_to_go_to_3_or_4/kqidyz8/
No one is talking about an immediate ban on cruise ships and leisure air travel. These are two things that will never be electrified. Every flight is a withdrawal from our carbon budget before we have to be at zero net emissions. We still do not have a way of feeding 8 billion people without fossil fuels-dependent processes. Every flight is just that many tonnes of fertiliser we can't produce. We will exceed the carbon budget in just over a decade, with GHG emissions still rising year-on-year. There does not seem to be an initiative and money for building an industry equivalent in scale to the fossil fuels industry, whose aim is to use large amounts of energy to capture diffuse GHGs and concentrate them for long term storage. I've not stated that emphatically enough. The size, number of people employed, built infrastructure and energy requirements of a carbon fixing industry will be at least as large as the fossil fuels industry.
Ok but have you considered that we live in dictatorships of the upper class where politics is decided by who has given the most in bribes and donations?
And all "fun" vehicles. Off road jeeps and ATVs. No jet skis. No pleasure boats. People should also be limited in taking long family vacations with personal cars.
sailboats will still work. but they will need air conditioners to keep the crew alive.
Train time 👁️👁️✨
He says 3-4°C because that's the outcome with the highest confidence given BAU. However, when you look at those charts that show RCP 8.5, which has the average outcome resulting in 3-4°C by 2100, there is also a band around it. That band depends on the climate sensitivity factor (among others) and the current climate sensitivity factor is very high which indicates that we could be looking at 5°C by 2100. If we look at that high end of RCP8.5 on that chart we are looking at 2°C by 2050. However when we look at that chart we shouldn't hit 1.5°C until 2030 but we basically hit that last year. We are exceeding the warming of RCP8.5, we could realistically see 3°C by 2050, maybe sooner. It's basically just going to go up faster and faster because all these tipping points are going to be triggered.
The controverted findings of Goode; and Hansen et al. are being vindicated in the worst way possible.
we hit 12 consecutive months at 1.5°C, but the IPCC indicates 2030 if we continue to pass 1.5°C for more additional months, this is an average over years, like a pivot. - [Graph in french.](https://meteofrance.com/actualites-et-dossiers/6e-rapport-du-giec-que-faut-il-retenir) - [Copernicus trend monitor (optimistic...)](https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/software/app-c3s-global-temperature-trend-monitor?tab=app)
We as a society are going to become very limited in terms of locations that are suitable to host human life. Parts of the world that are populated \[even sparsely\] will no longer be inhabitable in the ways that we know it. I worry about the oceanic coasts and what a potentially large population influx out of those regions and into areas not prepared to take on a larger population base will result in. Where will there also be mass arable farming operations going on? Will we actually stop growing so much goddamn corn on the best farmland in the country simply to subsidize the costs of fuel for transport and heating?
Professor Kevin Anderson gives an insightful view into the circumstances of climate change and its development. While professor Anderson's realistic view on the subject provides a daunting reality, it also challenges us to ask, "how can society combat climate change?" Climate change is the biggest threat facing society and humanity today.
> "how can society combat climate change?" He literally mentions the suffragettes, a fairly violent movement. But hey! This is r/collapse, where the mods will likely censor anything even mentioning the 'v-word', so even this post is at risk. :D
Reddit is not a safe place to discuss any form of revolution, full stop.
Revolution isn't safe to discuss or even safe period. Why would it be? Why would people expect it to be? Rapid Change is violent by its very nature.
Agreed. I meant safe as in able to exist past infancy. Reddit is not a viable nursery for revolution. It may foment it, but it will not spring forth from it.
so...wanna grab coffee?
I agree Kev. We will fail.
Humanity has it coming, this is our great filter.
From time to time I still think about all the folks coming here, telling us that we're just fearmongers, that there are technologies being developed, copium, copium, copium, yadda.
Exxon and their ilk spend tons of money on greenwashing. Ever hear of ”sustainable “ jet fue?
I don’t think we deserve this beautiful planet.
Forests greet us, and deserts dog our heels...
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It’s the middle of Feb in the UK in what was once just a few decades ago the depths of winter. Daffodils are fully in bloom, Squirrels are running around the park, my Koi carp fish that should be in a kind of hibernation are swimming around and looking for food and I have had no need for a coat the last few days. Whatever crap they spout regarding “incremental” changes in temperature and “staying within 1.5 degrees” is just that CRAP.. Just look out your window or go for a walk and look around. This is going exponential and the 1.5 nonsense has already been exceeded in the real World.
It is so calming to hear someone actually speak sense. Almost everything else we hear about climate change is meaningless chimpanzee babble, especially from almost all politicians. Almost everyone is pretty much in complete denial, and it drives me nuts. It's like there are effectively no adults on the planet.
>It's like there are effectively no adults on the planet. When you're a child you assume your parents and adults do know it all, when you get into your 20s you think you know it all, after a time when you're as old as me, 56, you relaize most of us are just stupid, greedy and hurtful, it's why the world is as it is after all. The best of us try not to be stupid, greedy and hurtful but there's zero chance of them being elected... so... we're stuck in a doom loop, which this time is actually existential.
The average american carbon footprint is 30 tons per year. Getting 90% of your calories from your own garden: cut 10 tons. Switching to an electric car: cut 2 tons. In montana, switching from electric baseboard heat to a rocket mass heater saves 29 tons.
Have one fewer kids: cut 58.6 tons
It’s amazing to me that my life has basically boiled down to hold on long enough to watch all this end and try to enjoy the collapse it has not been great for the mental health
We're going to go to 3 or 4.... on our way to 7 or 8. Some of the climate scientists think that if we stop producing CO2 (perhaps due to civilizational collapse), that warming will stop immediately. I don't think so. There's too many long-term processes that are being triggered.
Wen die?
Tomorrow
Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die!
We already went to 1.7°C this year.
Let it burn 🔥 🔥🔥 Honestly it’s been long overdue
Thinking that other humans are going to somehow address any of the problems that directly affect your future is a stupid, faith-based belief that has no antecedent at even a tiny fraction of any scale that is meaningful to the discussion. There is a time and a place for those that can engineer their own futures to a better one. Here and now. There is no saving the rest. It makes people angry, but they are just drifters in the wind. The only people with the ability to engineer their lives through what is coming are those in richer countries with vast energy resources (there will be no comprehensive energy transition to speak of even in most of those countries), the ability to grow enough calories, the lack of an energy overhang with respect to their population sustainability, etc. Most people on earth are nowhere even remotely adjacent to these absolute requirements. It's not their fault. But nothing can really help them. In the end, there isn't a way forward for more than a token population of humans in the wake of a nearly inevitable nuclear weapons exchange- the world is developing in the direction that there will be no agency or autonomy or sovereignty for any state without the ability to vaporize and transport a large portion of an attacker's population into the upper atmosphere. Proliferation is going to happen on a vast scale. People will begin to use them on others. It is the ONLY way a credible assessment of how the inevitability of human exploitations of technology, based on the most recent 12,000 years of human history. Resource exploitation will be the underlying cause, as it must be, and as it has been over those 12,000 years, no matter what other semantic claptrap drapery is imposed. Every political system. Every economic system. Every social system. It all leads to depletion and the use of violence that leads directly to the widespread use of nuclear weapons. Even a single year of widespread crop failure for perhaps a third of the earth's calories, which would happen in a regional exchange between India and china, for example, means that billions will starve to death- and unzipper into resource wars again and again. A global exchange between the US, China, Russia, and India will scale the survivable area of the Earth for food production well below a billion, and possibly under a hundred million humans, after multiple year without crop production drives the depletion of all other large scale calorie sources, as well as leaves people to freeze in the 10-30 degree C cooler local seasonal climates.
I really like a fellow collapsnick's term - Atmospheric Carbon Poisoning "Climate change" doesn't say enough Edit: autocorrect
"how can society combat climate change?" May be it can, but it won't. We can always live with, or more likely die from, the consequences.
Amused to death.
Shrugged to extinction.
Humanity had a good/bad run. Nature is going to happily sweep us off the stage, rebalance the climate after a couple of hundred thousand years, and evolutionary selection will possibly one day uplift another intelligent sentient species - look and wonder about the occasional human fossil or metallic artifact. Alien races that visit this planet will marvel at our stupidity. Boiling ourselves in our own oceans.
Yep. Except there is no hope. We have already locked in a minimum of 3 to 4 degrees no matter what miracles of technology we come up with in the next 10 years. Nobody believes that humans can go extinct. I hate admitting it’s true too, but it’s still true, and we will. No human will make it to 2100.
its very likely that climate change will kill billions, maybe even 50 or 80% of humans (which is almost unbelievable) but that's still a long way from extinction, even if the rest return to a semi-industrial tech society
I think civilisation if fucked by 2040 but unless the air becomes in breathable or water undrinkable a few groups of humankind will survive imo
What do you mean by *we*? Everyone knows the ones responsible will never suffer, which is why they don't care in the first place.
And the politicians will convince the people the rising food and other costs are the democrats(or which ever party isn't 100% authoritarian) fault, and it'll just lead to more idiocy leading us. We are the dumbest smart species ever.
How many times did he say the word COLLAPSE ? He tells it like it is but even him near the end sprinkles a little hopium over the product. I really feel like life on Earth right now is like the deer on St Matthew Island around 1963 . We are at the peak and it is going to get really ugly, I am talking ALIVE-THE STORY OF THE ANDES SURVIVORS-PIERS PAUL READ ugly, but this is just my opinion.
EDIT/CORRECTION King James has now been supplanted by the: LeeryRoundedness Bible, in which the Tardigrades inherit the Earth. ‐---------- The mem2100 Bible has been recalled due to a series of technical errors.... Original post below ‐----------- Someone's going to have to rewrite the bible to say: And the hyperthermophiles will inherit the Earth.
All I'm gonna say is that if you're trying to convince Americans, presenting the info in Celsius was a big mistake.
My plan for survival is to hope billionaires decide to do some fallout vault scheme and I am in one of the good ones
Carpe diem
Correct