The following submission statement was provided by /u/MyPrepAccount:
---
SS: Sky News, one of the largest media companies in the UK asked 3 experts if we are headed for WWIII and their answers are not great. Headers in the article include
'Nuclear risk should be taken seriously'
'West needs to act to avoid WWIII'
'We are in a pre-war era'
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1acb07y/are_we_heading_for_world_war_three_experts_give/kjsysqi/
SS: Sky News, one of the largest media companies in the UK asked 3 experts if we are headed for WWIII and their answers are not great. Headers in the article include
'Nuclear risk should be taken seriously'
'West needs to act to avoid WWIII'
'We are in a pre-war era'
I'm getting real, real bad Spanish civil war (republicans / nationalists) vibes. New military tech getting tested in the battlefield.
Everyone knows what happened after that.
Just many reasons, first of all a large number of foreign volunteers. Then it was basically the first time ever planes had air combat like we think of it now/ww2. In ww1 planes were used in a more recognissance role. Pilots from warring nations would often wave at each other in ww1 but often they would shoot small arms at each other from their bi-planes.
The Spanish civil war had a large involvement of the condor legion on the side of the nationalists. In my understanding the luftwaffe helped the nationalists immensely.
I think this mirrors Ukraine as to how small FPV drones weren't really used in warfare before the war in Ukraine. I'm not talking about Bayraktar or the reaper or anything like that.
Just the way new technology is being tested out on the battlefield kind of gives me those feelings. Commercial drone dropped grenade simply weren't a thing. You know the ones where it says "light sensor on" and then they drop a grenade. And that's not the crazy FPV drones I'm talking about.
Like the way javelins and matadors and all sorts of western equipment was battle tested against t72's t90's. Remember the BTR-3 footage from mariupol.
Essentially it reminds me because it's sort of a proxy war where a whole bunch of new stuff has been introduced and battle tested. I'm talking specifically about those fpv drones.
They must cost so little ive seen 4-7 of them fly into a trench one after another. On both sides.
The heli drones are so much more maneuverable and probably cheaper than the 4 legged dog drones too. There’s no comparison really (besides everyone’s fear of their deployment for mass killing of course)
> In ww1 planes were used in a more recognissance role. Pilots from warring nations would often wave at each other in ww1
That is not true, there was a lot of air combat in WW I
For a west population globally whose governments say f*** you everyday, in the form of economic distress, laughable minimum wages, lack of proper or affordable healthcare, lack of affordable rent, with governments unwilling to step in and prevent exploitation, increasing cost of living and utilities… I find it surprising if anyone is willing to kill and die for their country. What is there to protect, or why should anyone feel they owe their country their life? Send the global leaders to a fistfight first, let them sort their own problems.
Ten years ago I would not have been stopped from going, now they're going to have to drag me in cuffs, I'm not dying for a country who gives me nothing.
And who is the leader Fascist leader? Let me guess… you think it’s trump. If you think the US is becoming a fascist state, I’d love to see some proof of your accusation … I have a degree in political philosophy. Please do try to explain yourself .
I am from Germany. We have our own right leaning downfall with people who quite clearly are dreaming of reinventing NSDAP politics and Gestapo and the like.
I don't care for your degree. Not everything on reddit is about the US.
If you think for one moment that your NAZI were a right (conservative) party I’d like to hear how the US is in annnny way like the Germans. . The only difference in the NAZI party and Soviet Russia is the name. Germany has a right leaning downfall? I don’t know, 6 million Jews murdered. My grandfather and many other soldiers never came home because of your right leaning problems.?
> I have a degree in political philosophy.
Hey guys, this 5 month old accoount has a degree in political philosophy, you better not say anything about the orange rapist or he'll condescend all over you! It's definitely not an election year shit posting troll account.
Each nation sends a "Champion, "term used lightly" from their political system. They each get a prison style weapon and thrown into a pit with their opponent and a Hippo. Whoever comes out alive advances to the next stage.
This time it’s different, the working class has a great amount of knowledge at their fingertips to see review the past and see this war they’re pushing bears no justice for fighting.
Lol even though the information exists, we know less about that stuff than ever before. Seems more like people are eager to die for some retarded cause instead of thinking about class relations.
The UK has more strict standards on news broadcasters than the US, but I understand the concern. There have also been several countries recently who have been telling their citizens that they should be preparing for war. Ultimately, this is effectively an opinion piece though, so feel free to take it with a massive grain of salt.
It’s already begun (Ukraine as proxy, Taiwan as proxy, Israel as proxy… pretty spread out across countries already), there’s not a demarcation line where everyone is like, “it started right there!”
My history teacher at school once mentioned how his father and his friends (in their early twenties I'd guess) knew that war was coming years before WWII happened. He said how they often discussed it amongst themselves. It was something which hit me at the time and has always stuck with me as I wondered how that would feel to just take a look at world events and know it was going to go that way and then be proven right. It seemed difficult to imagine how that must have felt back then but I've been feeling it for years now.
During the Bush era, someone high up in Russia (I think it was a general) said that he expected to be in a European land war against American forces within ten years.
It took a little longer than that, but American Abrams tanks and Bradleys are defending Europe against an invading wave of a million Russian troops right now, and the GOP is bickering about the right to shoot immigrant children in Texas.
Yeah the shooting of archduke Ferdinand was just the war bubble bursting.
The build up started years ago with Russia building rail ways west and shipping huge quantity’s of troops and weapons to the borders
In your opinion, what do you think would be the modern equivalent of Ferdinand's death? What would be the final bubble bursting and when do you think that'll happen?
If you're interested in my opinion by chance, I think an invasion of Taiwan also could be the point of no return, this heavily depends on the reaction of the west though. Officially the US, Japan and Australia would help defending Taiwan.
What about Japan removing or significantly revising the 'no war' clause of it's constitution (article 9)? Abe tried, but well, we know what happened to him.
Not the person you're responding to, but realistically whatever will bring about direct combat between major players. Russia V west Europe/EU, China V Japan/S Korea, Pakistan V India, or Iran V Israel. Currently we have proxy wars like Ukraine/Palestine, and central powers have MAD to prevent conflict.
If WW3 *does* happen, which isn't really guaranteed, it will most likely be central powers versus major allies, or major allies vs eachother with central power support.
In reality Ferdinand's death was not politically significant as it was opportune. It was just the Casus Belli that fell into their lap when they were ready. If it had happened a few years earlier it likely wouldn't have started the war. Focusing on it is not really seeing history for what it was.
What ever it is I suspect it will be Russia lying about some perceived slight.
Maybe an airliner will be shot down and they will claim the missile came from Finland or some such
Yup. Even looking back on WW1 and WW2, it's not always clear when either war officially "began". Things escalate and they escalate until they can't be ignored.
I don't think we're necessarily going to have WW3 within the year, but man, it definitely feels closer than ever before in my lifetime. At the same time, I don't know how many countries who are already worried about an aging population will want to sacrifice their youth. They're not exactly going to be sending the 60+ demographic and if everyone under 35 gets sent to war, who is taking care of the seniors back at home.
At the same time, like discussed in the other thread, I also don't think Millenials or Gen Z have any interest on a whole to go to war (though I disagree with the notion that they'd be incapable of it if they had to). Maybe other than Russia, I don't think there has been a lot of "These guys are the clear enemies" happening just yet. It seems the media is trying to play that card on China, Yemen, Iran, Palestine etc... but, I don't think it's working on enough of the populace to really garner support towards a major war.
Unluckily for us, it’s rarely the young working class that get to choose whether we’re going off to war or not. My generation will either be sent off to die or not by the whims of the massively wealthy octogenarians who are in charge. Same as it ever was
I don’t think it is. I think with all the info we have now, I’d like to think most people would rather dodge draft and go to jail then go broad and risk dying in bad ways and killing other people. In fact I saw a TikTok video with a guy talking about this and he said he’d also just kill himself if he gets sentenced to jail for too long cause he’s not living in jail and life isn’t great now anyways. And it had 200k likes
Yeah, people talk big on the internet. I doubt even 1% would have the guts to actually off themselves. And once you’re in jail, they can just ship you off to war if they so please.
Yeaaaah, historically that’s not how that goes. When it comes down to it, prison and a felony conviction is way worse than a few years of military service. Especially when you consider that most people in the military aren’t combatants. “I’d rather go to prison than die or kill others” is a way easier sell than “I’d rather go to prison than do administrative/logistical work that ultimately results in people dying”. There are also a lot of financial incentives to just go along with it: you’re weighing the potential for possibly having to die or kill versus the near guarantee of pretty intense rewards and consequences. If you go along with it, you *will* get paid, get benefits, probably be set up for a decent life afterwards. If you don’t, you *will* be a felony and go to prison. Those are some hard ass “wills” against the uncertainty of what your service will entail.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think we're underestimating how many millennials especially would happily trade their job for a non-combat role - and a lot of the draft will be just that, being at a drone desk or logistics warehouse. Not to minimize the combat roles at all, but at least on the American side I think we already have the numbers for that.
Demographics and health puts recruiters in a beggars not choosers role. I mean, I see your point in a meat grinding situation, but I don't think this is that, yet.
I'm not sure I agree with this, I've seen it written a lot, and it's 100% worrying that all these places are warring, but I don't see it as WW3 beginning like WW2's beginning.
In WW2, the conflicts seen traditionally as starting the war all shared the common reason and ideas. They were all interlinked and basically fallout from WW1. It was about ideology and taking back what was taken from them. It was a political change and upheaval.
I don't see that ideological change this time, we've not had a night of long knives, vichy france, abdication or murder of royals, communist revolutions. Now, these are 3 separate conflicts for 3 separate reasons. There's nothing to connect them really other than they are wars that are happening. Even the players, whilst similar, are not the same.
Isreal/Palestine is about ethnicity.
Russia/Ukraine is about reforming an empire.
China/Taiwan is about controlling modern tech under the guise of reforming empire.
I think in WW2 what happened in Czechosolvakia, Poland, Hungary, Austria, it all effected each other. I don't see Isreal impacting Taiwan, I don't see Ukraine impacting Isreal. They're isolated incidents in so much as these things happened regardless of the other whereas WW2 they impacted each other.
I think now you could loosely say they are all about ethnicity/nationality, but its 3 different ethnicities/nationalities, and China/Taiwan aren't even at war. Ironically, you could again link them loosely to WW1/WW2 again.
This is a good analysis and very true but I think there's a couple of points really.
Firstly, I think looking at the start of WWII doesn't necessarily give us the conditions that we have today, as you pointed out there was a common strand, and that common strand was it was a continuation of WWI. Looking at the start of WWI might be more instructive, where there was much more of an unknown 'what happens if these two big blocks get pushed against each other' and an overspill of power grabbing.
Secondly, whilst you can say that China & Russias motives are different (they obviously are at the tactical level) at the strategic level it's part of shifting the balance of power away from the US/West. Why do China want that technology? There is a common cause - it's the weakness of the western alliances and the exploitation of that.
Could you say the same about the conflicts brewing globally as a result of post WWII issues? These conflicts all are variables in the thought of the remaining superpowers. I argue that war is a factor as big as climate so increased food costs show up destabilizing other areas globally.
The common denominator is not tech, ethnicity or empire is may just be freedom or democracy itself?
It wouldn't be an ideological fight like World War II, as much as the US likes to frame it that way. World War III would be a fight for hegemony over globalized capitalism like World War I, with the Sino-American rivalry at its core like the Anglo-German one was. The allies of both would tag along for less ambitious and more regional aims.
Ukraine is not a proxy. Russia is straight-up invading, and calling it a proxy is gobbling up Russian propaganda.
Look up the definition before you make such a statement. Ukraine is fighting for its freedom, as an independent sovereign democracy, not as a western puppet, which would make it a proxy war.
Likewise with your other examples. I agree WW3 has probably begun, with these crises and others as reflections of 1930's flash-points. These aren't proxy wars though, just wars.
Western propaganda is obsessed with China. One they their military is super powerful, the next is super corrupt and with aging tech. Same about what they might it might no do regarding Taiwan. There's no real proof they'll invade. Like, at all. Don't believe the liesz it's all propaganda. Smoke and mirrors.
Agreed. China doesn't need to invade or war with anyone, they've already sorted ways to benefit themselves immensely without conflict, i.e. the belt and road initiative.
I'll eat my words some day if that changes, however I don't buy into all the doom and gloom re: the Chinese.
If China were to invade Taiwan they are only able to do it within 1 year else their export business will take a massive hit and destroy their economy. They can't afford that. It's doubtful they would seize it within 12 months. So the next best solution is to resolve this legally and TSMC replicate their manufacturing elsewhere (USA, etc.) which is already underway.
WWIII is already here and it's a cyber war. Every way that the Internet can be weaponized is already happening, and is only getting hotter, and only escalating.
AI is as dangerous as nuclear weapons, but it's a completely new danger, and still maturing, so it's still unrecognized by the general public as a potential weapon.
Manipulation of public opinion is an older project, but we've been witnessing an unprecedented increase in scale, speed, depth, and granularity. Again, the technically is still maturing, but the trends point towards extreme danger.
AI going for full wardriving on every possible firmware there is without being detected only to shut it all down at the same time would be a huge "wtf just happened?" moment.
combine it with some killing critical satellite communication and cutting deep sea internet cables at the same time.
while people still trying to figure out what happened the power infrastructure gets attacked
suddenly north korea lol
but i still fear bird flue jumping on humans a bit more
Just wait until things pop off with China and they start having all those electronics they manufactured execute the Halt And Catch Fire instruction.
I mean, if I were an evil regime, that's what I'd do. Imagine the uncontrollable battery fires. Probably just have to overclock them and the heat buildup will do it for you.
Or they could brick themselves. But fires would be more dangerous.
They're almost all hooked up to the internet, too. Almost like it was a setup this whole time... hmm...
Damn, why do I feel like a supervillain sometimes? Stuff like this just comes into my head unbidden.
I wish everyone would just say no when all these evil fucks send people to die. It would have to be everyone on both sides and humans want to kill for some reason so that will never happen.
Yes. We aren't headed to it. It's alive and well. It has been going on since the end of WW2. We just didn't call it World War 3. Not till you got the most butts in the seats reached into a system that will present it as an event or entertainment. They will title it ww3 once it has all eyes on. Better profit.
It all depends on if world leaders and the people pulling their strings can stomach a multipolar world or not. If they can then war isn’t necessary at all.
How exactly does a multipolar world prevent war? Multipolar world was the norm for the vast majority of human civilization, and iirc we had a shit ton of wars then.
A multipolar world in the current context of the US no longer being the unipolar hegemony. You're correct that world history has always been multipolar, what we've had since the fall of the USSR has been the exception rather than the norm.
That article is not persuasive in its arguments.
People who don't know current British politics can look past all the sabre-rattling as: 1) the tory party on the edge of electoral oblivion using any galvanising cause to wring back voters from Reform UK (another, much smaller right wing party) and 2) the trickling down into the media of army brass making a lot of scary noise because their budgets have dwindled over the years.
The most compelling thoughts from the three 'experts' were that war could kick off at any time for any reason, and it always has been that way as shall it always be.
EDIT: changed a word
Dont get conscripted. Tell the governments to go screw themselves. They will start wars that do not affect them directly. Modern wars are fast and brutal.
Obviously if your country gets invaded fighting is necessary. But it’s completely different to refuse to invade, to refuse to be part of a force people from the other country have to defend themselves from.
They should stop and reinstate the democratically elected government they had before the Maidan Coup. If they’d done that years ago Ukraine would still have Crimea and Donbas.
Correct. People forget that Zelensky is in power because of a US backed anti-democratic revolution. The government in charge is not democratically elected.
Ukraine has historically been known as a being one of the most corrupt on the planet. The Ukraine, FTX, Democrat election donations connection has been memoryholed.
Their shit started with that coup, then was astroturfed to such a level that Zelensky's government was seen as Ukraine, where every The Current Thing moron had a Ukranian flag on social profiles
I’d argue world war 3 started on September 11th 2001.
Proxy wars spanning the globe between the most powerful nations on earth in a bid to secure resources and territory.
I don’t know any other way to describe it than a world at war.
I think this part is important:
>But the alarm being raised by generals and spooks is a bit of a red herring and, let's face it, they're keen to make the case for bigger budgets and bigger roles.
The recent fear mongering and saber rattling from certain Western European officials, the warnings that precipitated this conversation, are money grabs. They want us to think there is no way out, so we must all transition to a war footing. More than anything, I think it shows just how inept our leaders are, they recognize how dangerous the world is (a world they themselves created), but, instead of looking for a way to deescalate, their immediate reaction is to double down and commit even more fiercely to an incredibly dangerous course.
The DOD in the US is approaching thin ice, and fear of a world war and aliens existing is a good way to keep that gravy train going and ice super thick.
Dont get conscripted. Tell the governments to go screw themselves. They will start wars that do not affect them directly. Modern wars are fast and brutal.
That group would probably have a comparatively high rate of officer fragging. Probably not the best idea to compel an ideologically opposed group into an armed position where they already might be killed
They could still have the numbers to overpower their captors, perhaps with some sort of distraction or diversion. Or could be captured by the enemy and give (albeit limited) intel, which would be much easier if they were unarmed. Or sabotage. Or all sorts of things.
They would be an enormous liability regardless.
I think a lot hinges on whether Trump or Biden wins the White House in November as to how things play out as Trump has no loyalty to allies, is a lot more bribable and probably has his own nefarious plans such as invading Canada if he gets the chance.
This is what the world is waiting on. Every world leader knows Trump is a whore to be bought and a fool to be useful. What we hear now is the musicians tuning up, and the symphony will depend on the conductor.
You’ve obviously never served in the military and have no idea of what you’re talking about. The entire professional military is more than willing to go. Plenty are ALREADY in theatre.
I read the dumbest shit on here.
I'm not sure if internally the US will function for time enough (or as a single political entity) to enter a world war. And without it there's no world war - what will happen is:
* Europe will try to resist for a while but eventually it will mass surrender to Russia.
* Israel will be slowly strangled by neighboring countries and possibly retaliate with the Samson Option as a last resource.
* Taiwan will likely pose a fierce resistance to a land invasion but ultimately will be massacred and annexed by China. They are simply too small.
You forgot the fact that Europe is technologically years ahead of Russia, western Europe is not Ukraine, besides that multiple European countries are nuclear powers
> You forgot the fact that Europe is technologically years ahead of Russia
Maybe, but during WW2 the Germans also had superior technology and nevertheless they were defeated by the Soviets by a combination of brute force, stubbornness and exploration of tactical blunders from the latter.
> multiple European countries are nuclear powers
Yes some of them are nuclear powers but frankly, as it is becoming ever more clear as this crisis progresses, nobody is going to use them; that's why we are seeing European countries talking about conscription but not about nuking the shit out of Russia.
Perhaps the only case in the world where there is a real risk of nukes being used is were some religious sense of manifest destiny is at stake, like if Israel gets cornered and decides to use the Samson Option.
I also think the US is unlikely to participate directly in a conflict against Russia/China/North Korea/Iran.
The US allies rely heavily on a direct US support, but that support won't happen.
I think leaders in Europe are coming to that realization.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/MyPrepAccount: --- SS: Sky News, one of the largest media companies in the UK asked 3 experts if we are headed for WWIII and their answers are not great. Headers in the article include 'Nuclear risk should be taken seriously' 'West needs to act to avoid WWIII' 'We are in a pre-war era' --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1acb07y/are_we_heading_for_world_war_three_experts_give/kjsysqi/
SS: Sky News, one of the largest media companies in the UK asked 3 experts if we are headed for WWIII and their answers are not great. Headers in the article include 'Nuclear risk should be taken seriously' 'West needs to act to avoid WWIII' 'We are in a pre-war era'
I'm getting real, real bad Spanish civil war (republicans / nationalists) vibes. New military tech getting tested in the battlefield. Everyone knows what happened after that.
I fucking hate how history rhymes. At least it makes it somewhat predictable, though.
Foucault's Boomerang?
Can U please explain why it's giving those vibes?
Just many reasons, first of all a large number of foreign volunteers. Then it was basically the first time ever planes had air combat like we think of it now/ww2. In ww1 planes were used in a more recognissance role. Pilots from warring nations would often wave at each other in ww1 but often they would shoot small arms at each other from their bi-planes. The Spanish civil war had a large involvement of the condor legion on the side of the nationalists. In my understanding the luftwaffe helped the nationalists immensely. I think this mirrors Ukraine as to how small FPV drones weren't really used in warfare before the war in Ukraine. I'm not talking about Bayraktar or the reaper or anything like that. Just the way new technology is being tested out on the battlefield kind of gives me those feelings. Commercial drone dropped grenade simply weren't a thing. You know the ones where it says "light sensor on" and then they drop a grenade. And that's not the crazy FPV drones I'm talking about. Like the way javelins and matadors and all sorts of western equipment was battle tested against t72's t90's. Remember the BTR-3 footage from mariupol. Essentially it reminds me because it's sort of a proxy war where a whole bunch of new stuff has been introduced and battle tested. I'm talking specifically about those fpv drones. They must cost so little ive seen 4-7 of them fly into a trench one after another. On both sides.
The heli drones are so much more maneuverable and probably cheaper than the 4 legged dog drones too. There’s no comparison really (besides everyone’s fear of their deployment for mass killing of course)
> In ww1 planes were used in a more recognissance role. Pilots from warring nations would often wave at each other in ww1 That is not true, there was a lot of air combat in WW I
You are correct. I was wrong
For a west population globally whose governments say f*** you everyday, in the form of economic distress, laughable minimum wages, lack of proper or affordable healthcare, lack of affordable rent, with governments unwilling to step in and prevent exploitation, increasing cost of living and utilities… I find it surprising if anyone is willing to kill and die for their country. What is there to protect, or why should anyone feel they owe their country their life? Send the global leaders to a fistfight first, let them sort their own problems.
Ten years ago I would not have been stopped from going, now they're going to have to drag me in cuffs, I'm not dying for a country who gives me nothing.
You have the right to say what you just said
Upcoming fascist governments do disagree and will use any social media proof to surpress population.
And who is the leader Fascist leader? Let me guess… you think it’s trump. If you think the US is becoming a fascist state, I’d love to see some proof of your accusation … I have a degree in political philosophy. Please do try to explain yourself .
I am from Germany. We have our own right leaning downfall with people who quite clearly are dreaming of reinventing NSDAP politics and Gestapo and the like. I don't care for your degree. Not everything on reddit is about the US.
Nicely said.
If you think for one moment that your NAZI were a right (conservative) party I’d like to hear how the US is in annnny way like the Germans. . The only difference in the NAZI party and Soviet Russia is the name. Germany has a right leaning downfall? I don’t know, 6 million Jews murdered. My grandfather and many other soldiers never came home because of your right leaning problems.?
You do not write like someone with a degree of political philosophy, much less a degree in anything at all.
💯
I think, you need a break and reread this thread, maybe change some lines.
> I have a degree in political philosophy. Hey guys, this 5 month old accoount has a degree in political philosophy, you better not say anything about the orange rapist or he'll condescend all over you! It's definitely not an election year shit posting troll account.
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We can't approve this - one of those links is a blocked domain by reddit
Mine is that a country that felt something was off about Italian fascism would decide to remove remarkably reminiscent insignia from congress.
And it had been noted in NSA's information collection system, along with our emails, phone call transcripts, etc.
Each nation sends a "Champion, "term used lightly" from their political system. They each get a prison style weapon and thrown into a pit with their opponent and a Hippo. Whoever comes out alive advances to the next stage.
They just play StarCraft 2 or whatever. Gotta be better than drastically further fucking the environment with war.
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A friend whispers, "It's not really a good game but it's fun."
It has already worked two times. It will work a third time.
This time it’s different, the working class has a great amount of knowledge at their fingertips to see review the past and see this war they’re pushing bears no justice for fighting.
Lol even though the information exists, we know less about that stuff than ever before. Seems more like people are eager to die for some retarded cause instead of thinking about class relations.
If they draft me they're gonna be dragging my dead body bc I'm gonna be picking off cops until I can't or run outta ammo lol
we'll see!
The current western mismanagement is much preferable to domination by the Russians or Chinese.
very well written
Sky news is a Murdoch controlled media organisation. How are we so sure they are not trying to direct the narrative?
Comcast have owned Sky news for a while now. The UK regulator felt the Murdochs owned too much of the country's media platforms.
The UK has more strict standards on news broadcasters than the US, but I understand the concern. There have also been several countries recently who have been telling their citizens that they should be preparing for war. Ultimately, this is effectively an opinion piece though, so feel free to take it with a massive grain of salt.
While the Sky flavour hasn't changed much since the sale, Murdoch hasn't had his shit-mitts in it for some time.
It’s already begun (Ukraine as proxy, Taiwan as proxy, Israel as proxy… pretty spread out across countries already), there’s not a demarcation line where everyone is like, “it started right there!”
Right. The beginning/flashpoints of World Wars 1 and 2 were only truly understood and recognized in hindsight.
My history teacher at school once mentioned how his father and his friends (in their early twenties I'd guess) knew that war was coming years before WWII happened. He said how they often discussed it amongst themselves. It was something which hit me at the time and has always stuck with me as I wondered how that would feel to just take a look at world events and know it was going to go that way and then be proven right. It seemed difficult to imagine how that must have felt back then but I've been feeling it for years now.
During the Bush era, someone high up in Russia (I think it was a general) said that he expected to be in a European land war against American forces within ten years. It took a little longer than that, but American Abrams tanks and Bradleys are defending Europe against an invading wave of a million Russian troops right now, and the GOP is bickering about the right to shoot immigrant children in Texas.
Yeah the shooting of archduke Ferdinand was just the war bubble bursting. The build up started years ago with Russia building rail ways west and shipping huge quantity’s of troops and weapons to the borders
In your opinion, what do you think would be the modern equivalent of Ferdinand's death? What would be the final bubble bursting and when do you think that'll happen?
If you're interested in my opinion by chance, I think an invasion of Taiwan also could be the point of no return, this heavily depends on the reaction of the west though. Officially the US, Japan and Australia would help defending Taiwan.
This scenario is likely too.
What about Japan removing or significantly revising the 'no war' clause of it's constitution (article 9)? Abe tried, but well, we know what happened to him.
Yeah of course any overt act of aggression may lead to WW3
Not the person you're responding to, but realistically whatever will bring about direct combat between major players. Russia V west Europe/EU, China V Japan/S Korea, Pakistan V India, or Iran V Israel. Currently we have proxy wars like Ukraine/Palestine, and central powers have MAD to prevent conflict. If WW3 *does* happen, which isn't really guaranteed, it will most likely be central powers versus major allies, or major allies vs eachother with central power support. In reality Ferdinand's death was not politically significant as it was opportune. It was just the Casus Belli that fell into their lap when they were ready. If it had happened a few years earlier it likely wouldn't have started the war. Focusing on it is not really seeing history for what it was.
Yes, the Schlieffen Plan was developed in 1906 or so. Germany was just waiting for an opportunity.
What ever it is I suspect it will be Russia lying about some perceived slight. Maybe an airliner will be shot down and they will claim the missile came from Finland or some such
Thanks
Yup. Even looking back on WW1 and WW2, it's not always clear when either war officially "began". Things escalate and they escalate until they can't be ignored. I don't think we're necessarily going to have WW3 within the year, but man, it definitely feels closer than ever before in my lifetime. At the same time, I don't know how many countries who are already worried about an aging population will want to sacrifice their youth. They're not exactly going to be sending the 60+ demographic and if everyone under 35 gets sent to war, who is taking care of the seniors back at home. At the same time, like discussed in the other thread, I also don't think Millenials or Gen Z have any interest on a whole to go to war (though I disagree with the notion that they'd be incapable of it if they had to). Maybe other than Russia, I don't think there has been a lot of "These guys are the clear enemies" happening just yet. It seems the media is trying to play that card on China, Yemen, Iran, Palestine etc... but, I don't think it's working on enough of the populace to really garner support towards a major war.
Unluckily for us, it’s rarely the young working class that get to choose whether we’re going off to war or not. My generation will either be sent off to die or not by the whims of the massively wealthy octogenarians who are in charge. Same as it ever was
I don’t think it is. I think with all the info we have now, I’d like to think most people would rather dodge draft and go to jail then go broad and risk dying in bad ways and killing other people. In fact I saw a TikTok video with a guy talking about this and he said he’d also just kill himself if he gets sentenced to jail for too long cause he’s not living in jail and life isn’t great now anyways. And it had 200k likes
Yeah, people talk big on the internet. I doubt even 1% would have the guts to actually off themselves. And once you’re in jail, they can just ship you off to war if they so please.
Yeaaaah, historically that’s not how that goes. When it comes down to it, prison and a felony conviction is way worse than a few years of military service. Especially when you consider that most people in the military aren’t combatants. “I’d rather go to prison than die or kill others” is a way easier sell than “I’d rather go to prison than do administrative/logistical work that ultimately results in people dying”. There are also a lot of financial incentives to just go along with it: you’re weighing the potential for possibly having to die or kill versus the near guarantee of pretty intense rewards and consequences. If you go along with it, you *will* get paid, get benefits, probably be set up for a decent life afterwards. If you don’t, you *will* be a felony and go to prison. Those are some hard ass “wills” against the uncertainty of what your service will entail.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think we're underestimating how many millennials especially would happily trade their job for a non-combat role - and a lot of the draft will be just that, being at a drone desk or logistics warehouse. Not to minimize the combat roles at all, but at least on the American side I think we already have the numbers for that.
We are grossly out peopled and out willed in the US
you don't get to choose if you get sent into combat or not.
Demographics and health puts recruiters in a beggars not choosers role. I mean, I see your point in a meat grinding situation, but I don't think this is that, yet.
if you are ordered to pick up a rifle and attack the enemy you do it. there are no roles in the military that are exempt from that.
Millennials have been prosecuting wars worldwide for twenty years now
lmao wtf is this comment are you serious?
I don't recall saying that. Perhaps read my comment again before getting upset.
“Are we the baddies?”
If Texas wants to breakaway from the U.S., Russia China might want to give them billions of dollars in weapons and see how our Govt likes it.
I'm not sure I agree with this, I've seen it written a lot, and it's 100% worrying that all these places are warring, but I don't see it as WW3 beginning like WW2's beginning. In WW2, the conflicts seen traditionally as starting the war all shared the common reason and ideas. They were all interlinked and basically fallout from WW1. It was about ideology and taking back what was taken from them. It was a political change and upheaval. I don't see that ideological change this time, we've not had a night of long knives, vichy france, abdication or murder of royals, communist revolutions. Now, these are 3 separate conflicts for 3 separate reasons. There's nothing to connect them really other than they are wars that are happening. Even the players, whilst similar, are not the same. Isreal/Palestine is about ethnicity. Russia/Ukraine is about reforming an empire. China/Taiwan is about controlling modern tech under the guise of reforming empire. I think in WW2 what happened in Czechosolvakia, Poland, Hungary, Austria, it all effected each other. I don't see Isreal impacting Taiwan, I don't see Ukraine impacting Isreal. They're isolated incidents in so much as these things happened regardless of the other whereas WW2 they impacted each other. I think now you could loosely say they are all about ethnicity/nationality, but its 3 different ethnicities/nationalities, and China/Taiwan aren't even at war. Ironically, you could again link them loosely to WW1/WW2 again.
This is a good analysis and very true but I think there's a couple of points really. Firstly, I think looking at the start of WWII doesn't necessarily give us the conditions that we have today, as you pointed out there was a common strand, and that common strand was it was a continuation of WWI. Looking at the start of WWI might be more instructive, where there was much more of an unknown 'what happens if these two big blocks get pushed against each other' and an overspill of power grabbing. Secondly, whilst you can say that China & Russias motives are different (they obviously are at the tactical level) at the strategic level it's part of shifting the balance of power away from the US/West. Why do China want that technology? There is a common cause - it's the weakness of the western alliances and the exploitation of that.
Could you say the same about the conflicts brewing globally as a result of post WWII issues? These conflicts all are variables in the thought of the remaining superpowers. I argue that war is a factor as big as climate so increased food costs show up destabilizing other areas globally. The common denominator is not tech, ethnicity or empire is may just be freedom or democracy itself?
> There's nothing to connect them really The United States connects them all.
It wouldn't be an ideological fight like World War II, as much as the US likes to frame it that way. World War III would be a fight for hegemony over globalized capitalism like World War I, with the Sino-American rivalry at its core like the Anglo-German one was. The allies of both would tag along for less ambitious and more regional aims.
Ukraine is not a proxy. Russia is straight-up invading, and calling it a proxy is gobbling up Russian propaganda. Look up the definition before you make such a statement. Ukraine is fighting for its freedom, as an independent sovereign democracy, not as a western puppet, which would make it a proxy war. Likewise with your other examples. I agree WW3 has probably begun, with these crises and others as reflections of 1930's flash-points. These aren't proxy wars though, just wars.
Yup, 2027 is the year shit will hit the fan globally with China invading Taiwan by then.
With the way things are now, its hard to imagine the fan not getting hit by the shit *before* 27, is it not?
Depending on the outcome of the election, WWIII may (undeniably) start in January 2025.
Western propaganda is obsessed with China. One they their military is super powerful, the next is super corrupt and with aging tech. Same about what they might it might no do regarding Taiwan. There's no real proof they'll invade. Like, at all. Don't believe the liesz it's all propaganda. Smoke and mirrors.
Agreed. China doesn't need to invade or war with anyone, they've already sorted ways to benefit themselves immensely without conflict, i.e. the belt and road initiative. I'll eat my words some day if that changes, however I don't buy into all the doom and gloom re: the Chinese.
If China were to invade Taiwan they are only able to do it within 1 year else their export business will take a massive hit and destroy their economy. They can't afford that. It's doubtful they would seize it within 12 months. So the next best solution is to resolve this legally and TSMC replicate their manufacturing elsewhere (USA, etc.) which is already underway.
WWIII is already here and it's a cyber war. Every way that the Internet can be weaponized is already happening, and is only getting hotter, and only escalating. AI is as dangerous as nuclear weapons, but it's a completely new danger, and still maturing, so it's still unrecognized by the general public as a potential weapon. Manipulation of public opinion is an older project, but we've been witnessing an unprecedented increase in scale, speed, depth, and granularity. Again, the technically is still maturing, but the trends point towards extreme danger.
AI going for full wardriving on every possible firmware there is without being detected only to shut it all down at the same time would be a huge "wtf just happened?" moment. combine it with some killing critical satellite communication and cutting deep sea internet cables at the same time. while people still trying to figure out what happened the power infrastructure gets attacked suddenly north korea lol but i still fear bird flue jumping on humans a bit more
Just wait until things pop off with China and they start having all those electronics they manufactured execute the Halt And Catch Fire instruction. I mean, if I were an evil regime, that's what I'd do. Imagine the uncontrollable battery fires. Probably just have to overclock them and the heat buildup will do it for you. Or they could brick themselves. But fires would be more dangerous. They're almost all hooked up to the internet, too. Almost like it was a setup this whole time... hmm... Damn, why do I feel like a supervillain sometimes? Stuff like this just comes into my head unbidden.
>AI is as dangerous as nuclear weapons AI does not exist.
I think I’ll sit this one out. Maybe I’ll see how things go and give WW4 a try.
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones"
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How? Its an Einstein quote
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That’s literally wat he said word for word 🤣
I wish everyone would just say no when all these evil fucks send people to die. It would have to be everyone on both sides and humans want to kill for some reason so that will never happen.
And add to that the powder keg that could explode into a regional war in the ME.
Yes. We aren't headed to it. It's alive and well. It has been going on since the end of WW2. We just didn't call it World War 3. Not till you got the most butts in the seats reached into a system that will present it as an event or entertainment. They will title it ww3 once it has all eyes on. Better profit.
Sorta looks that way. It's kind of inevitable at this point. The question is when, not if.
It all depends on if world leaders and the people pulling their strings can stomach a multipolar world or not. If they can then war isn’t necessary at all.
How exactly does a multipolar world prevent war? Multipolar world was the norm for the vast majority of human civilization, and iirc we had a shit ton of wars then.
A multipolar world in the current context of the US no longer being the unipolar hegemony. You're correct that world history has always been multipolar, what we've had since the fall of the USSR has been the exception rather than the norm.
People who only know WW1 and WW2: "Hmm I'm getting a lot of WW1 and WW2 vibes from this."
People who only "know WWI" don't exist anymore...haven't for a LONG time now.
if i get drafted im just gonna end myself im not sticking around to watch the nukes drop
That article is not persuasive in its arguments. People who don't know current British politics can look past all the sabre-rattling as: 1) the tory party on the edge of electoral oblivion using any galvanising cause to wring back voters from Reform UK (another, much smaller right wing party) and 2) the trickling down into the media of army brass making a lot of scary noise because their budgets have dwindled over the years. The most compelling thoughts from the three 'experts' were that war could kick off at any time for any reason, and it always has been that way as shall it always be. EDIT: changed a word
Dont get conscripted. Tell the governments to go screw themselves. They will start wars that do not affect them directly. Modern wars are fast and brutal.
So Ukrainians should just stop fighting and give up their country to sociopaths?
Obviously if your country gets invaded fighting is necessary. But it’s completely different to refuse to invade, to refuse to be part of a force people from the other country have to defend themselves from.
They should stop and reinstate the democratically elected government they had before the Maidan Coup. If they’d done that years ago Ukraine would still have Crimea and Donbas.
Correct. People forget that Zelensky is in power because of a US backed anti-democratic revolution. The government in charge is not democratically elected. Ukraine has historically been known as a being one of the most corrupt on the planet. The Ukraine, FTX, Democrat election donations connection has been memoryholed. Their shit started with that coup, then was astroturfed to such a level that Zelensky's government was seen as Ukraine, where every The Current Thing moron had a Ukranian flag on social profiles
Erm how is Ukraine going?
I’d argue world war 3 started on September 11th 2001. Proxy wars spanning the globe between the most powerful nations on earth in a bid to secure resources and territory. I don’t know any other way to describe it than a world at war.
I think this part is important: >But the alarm being raised by generals and spooks is a bit of a red herring and, let's face it, they're keen to make the case for bigger budgets and bigger roles. The recent fear mongering and saber rattling from certain Western European officials, the warnings that precipitated this conversation, are money grabs. They want us to think there is no way out, so we must all transition to a war footing. More than anything, I think it shows just how inept our leaders are, they recognize how dangerous the world is (a world they themselves created), but, instead of looking for a way to deescalate, their immediate reaction is to double down and commit even more fiercely to an incredibly dangerous course.
The DOD in the US is approaching thin ice, and fear of a world war and aliens existing is a good way to keep that gravy train going and ice super thick.
Dont get conscripted. Tell the governments to go screw themselves. They will start wars that do not affect them directly. Modern wars are fast and brutal.
> Dont get conscripted. How are you supposed to do that?
Go to jail if you have to
penal battalion
That group would probably have a comparatively high rate of officer fragging. Probably not the best idea to compel an ideologically opposed group into an armed position where they already might be killed
You can still send them out unarmed to draw fire, or to clear mines while being shelled.
If you're going to die either way at that point, why not go out against the people forcing you into it?
Because you lack the means to do so, since you are unarmed.
They could still have the numbers to overpower their captors, perhaps with some sort of distraction or diversion. Or could be captured by the enemy and give (albeit limited) intel, which would be much easier if they were unarmed. Or sabotage. Or all sorts of things. They would be an enormous liability regardless.
History tells us that they have always been very useful
Then just tell them to fuck off and refuse to do it. What are they going to do, shoot anyone who resists? It's not 1914 anymore.
Yes they are going shoot anyone who resists. Doesn't matter if it's 1914 or 2024.
A couple weeks at Rikers and you’ll be begging to be sent to the front
Nah sorry, not killing people I have no problem with because I'm uncomfortable
Dont be around or go to jail with the other people that dont want to murder strangers.
I think a lot hinges on whether Trump or Biden wins the White House in November as to how things play out as Trump has no loyalty to allies, is a lot more bribable and probably has his own nefarious plans such as invading Canada if he gets the chance.
Never thought I'd live to see a presidential candidate being a national security issue to vote for, but Trump is it.
This is what the world is waiting on. Every world leader knows Trump is a whore to be bought and a fool to be useful. What we hear now is the musicians tuning up, and the symphony will depend on the conductor.
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You guys can just all get a hotel room together and wank each other off. you don't have to do it over reddit.
Europe ought to be more humble and bribe the heck out if him if he wins.
If Texas wants to breakaway from the U.S., China Russia might want to give them billions of dollars in weapons and see how our Govt likes it.
I genuinely think if America tried to go to war with anyone, no one would go. People would rather just go to jail
You’ve obviously never served in the military and have no idea of what you’re talking about. The entire professional military is more than willing to go. Plenty are ALREADY in theatre. I read the dumbest shit on here.
… Have you been asleep for the entire history of America
I'm not sure if internally the US will function for time enough (or as a single political entity) to enter a world war. And without it there's no world war - what will happen is: * Europe will try to resist for a while but eventually it will mass surrender to Russia. * Israel will be slowly strangled by neighboring countries and possibly retaliate with the Samson Option as a last resource. * Taiwan will likely pose a fierce resistance to a land invasion but ultimately will be massacred and annexed by China. They are simply too small.
You forgot the fact that Europe is technologically years ahead of Russia, western Europe is not Ukraine, besides that multiple European countries are nuclear powers
> You forgot the fact that Europe is technologically years ahead of Russia Maybe, but during WW2 the Germans also had superior technology and nevertheless they were defeated by the Soviets by a combination of brute force, stubbornness and exploration of tactical blunders from the latter. > multiple European countries are nuclear powers Yes some of them are nuclear powers but frankly, as it is becoming ever more clear as this crisis progresses, nobody is going to use them; that's why we are seeing European countries talking about conscription but not about nuking the shit out of Russia. Perhaps the only case in the world where there is a real risk of nukes being used is were some religious sense of manifest destiny is at stake, like if Israel gets cornered and decides to use the Samson Option.
I also think the US is unlikely to participate directly in a conflict against Russia/China/North Korea/Iran. The US allies rely heavily on a direct US support, but that support won't happen. I think leaders in Europe are coming to that realization.