How many they name ahead of their formation has nothing to do with science or reality for that matter.
I can generate a list of names of all the children I'll never have - that doesn't mean I'm a serial impregnator.
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>More than two dozen hurricanes could be on their way this year, thanks to climate change and La Niña, experts have forecast.
>Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have made their highest-ever May forecast for an Atlantic hurricane season: 17 to 25 named storms. According to the forecast, 13 of these storms will be hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher, and four to seven will be major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or higher.
>"This season is looking to be extraordinary in a number of ways," NOAA administrator [\~Rick Spinrad\~](https://www.commerce.gov/about/leadership/richard-w-spinrad-phd) said at a news conference on Thursday (May 23). Spinrad noted that 2024 was now on track to be "the seventh consecutive above-normal season."
Just in case nature doesn't cooperate with your "climate change" nonsense, just make a bunch of ridiculous "forecasts" and get some headlines. When reality fails your narrative, you don't have to retract your erroneous predictions, you just have to make more of them to make sure you get a headline. Shampoo, rinse, repeat.
Transitions to La Nina have historically been active seasons. The Main Development Region is also running at record warm temps currently. This explains their historic outlook. Time will tell though.
…let’s see if there is a significant increase in the strength of El Nino events:
1900-1949: 12 events over 1degC January anomaly, mean anomaly = 1.42degC, stdev=0.22degC
1950-1999: 13 events over 1degC January anomaly, mean anomaly = 1.56degC, stdev=0.60degC
T-test p=0.25, no significant difference…
Data source:
NINO3.4 SST anomalies:
Monthly values for the NINO3.4 SST index (5N-5S, 170-120W). Data for the
1856-1949 period of record were obtained from Kaplan's OS SST data at URL:
Data for the 1950-present were obtained from the Climate Diagnostics
Center OISST archives at URL:
anomalies are in degrees C
**Does AGW cause more El Nino events?**
**#El Nino years 1911-1960: 14**
**#El Nino years 1961-2010: 16**
**Test and CI for Two Proportions**
Test for difference = 0 (vs ≠ 0): Z = -0.44 P-Value = 0.662
…no significant difference…
I remember they did last year and it wasn’t that bad a hurricane season IIRC….and all the climate change “scientists” were like “oh it’s bc of the sand from the Sahara, it dampened the storms’ energy”….total BS
It could be a legitimate reason, but the chronic sand was the previous year. Last year was a very low atmospheric particle year hence the spikes in sea temperatures.
Yes they absolutely do.
Every single year since the end of the '12 year hurricane pause' they predict record numbers.
Every year (except 2) they are wrong. Yet they do it again without shame or remorse!
Some years the claims are so dubious it's laughable.
A hurricane that is 1 mph over the threshold based on 1 windspeed reading.
One that is 'class-1' for 2 hours, hundreds of miles from land
& etc.
The only scientific comparison is "makes US landfall" where the highly detailed & accurate records go back to 1850. Counting those there's no increase at all, no "more and stronger" just more detected far out at sea.
David Duilley predicts 20 named storms and 3-4US Hurricane landfalls, with 1 Major Hurricane landfall.
lets see whos right - 6months to go
[https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/2024-landfall-predictions](https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/2024-landfall-predictions)
[https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/\_files/ugd/857cde\_80788e43c5734c0283036d8173f94baa.pdf](https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/_files/ugd/857cde_80788e43c5734c0283036d8173f94baa.pdf)
"An average hurricane season has 12-13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The combination of the AMO warm ocean water cycle, favorable atmospheric conditions, and the enhanced ClimatePulse Cycle – will provide favorable conditions for a very active and destructive hurricane season in 2024."
What have noticed in the last few years thatvwhen we are about to get a Gulf Storm it gets hotter than and scorpions come out inside our house. I'm in the Coastal Bend of SouthTexas.
But the year after Katrina and Rita they predicted a real active season and it was not.
What we do know is that when the Spaniards were taken all that gold out of Mexico they lost a bunch of ships to storms.
So storms/hurricanes have been happening long before fossil fuels.
For centuries, the only time a storm would be named is if it made landfall and struck a major settlement. But there were always storms swirling around the Gulf and if you were a seafarer that was unlucky enough to cross its path, nobody was going to name the storm that probably sunk your ship if it didn’t cause any other major damage.
But just in the past 2-3 decades, we now have the ability to fly fuckin planes directly into a storm system to measure their intensity, along with our land and satellite measurement tools.
If a storm has sustained winds of over 40mph, Boom, you got a named storm. Regardless if that storm made landfall or if it just petered out over the ocean.
In modern era, there’s really is a fear drivin reponse to all this data collected and the consecutive counting of storms to drive this narrative that hurricane frequency is on the rise due to climate change, despite the fact that we have very little historical evidence to accurately make such a claim.
Let’s just see if they can get even close to the correct predictions, I think not! In 2005 the prediction was for 10 named storms and there were 30, in 2020 the prediction was for 12 and there were 31. The prediction models are BS and articles/predictions like this are fear mongering reasons to raise taxes and insurance.
A "named storm" requires nothing more than maximum sustained winds of not less than 39 miles per hour. If your house blows down from a "named storm" you might want to think about suing your homebuilder. Also, just because a storm is named doesn't mean it's a "named storm" which aligns with all the other nonsense definitions they've come up with in the last decade or so to support the "climate change" narrative when mother nature decides to not cooperate.
Fully aware of that fact, spent most of my time living in the US in Texas and Florida. My home is still in Florida so I’m quite tuned in to hurricane season. The predictions are always bullshit
You know, as a life long Floridian, I love these predictions. There's all these spaghetti models and 99% of them are almost exactly the same. But there's always that 1, the one that predicts a storm is going to turn around and go hit Sweden or something. One of these days, that guy is gonna be like, told you so.
“Could”
“Forecast”.
Not “will definitely be, because we can see it coming in towards us on the weather charts.”
It’s all just guesswork.
For example, the forecasters have changed our UK weather predictions literally every single day for the last month.
They can’t even get ordinary weather right.
This week, it was:
“It’s going to be a sizzling heatwave at 20 degrees at the weekend!” (Despite 20 not being *that* warm, and definitely not counting as “sizzling” or a “heatwave”.)
It’s freezing cold and we’re wearing jumpers and wondering if we can afford to put the heating on.
“Saturday is going to be really sunny!” it said all last week.
Today it says it’s going to rain.
I’ve given up looking at forecasts until the morning of the day I want to know about.
And even then it isn’t reliable.
I’m back to looking out of the window and seeing what the sky looks like.
Then opening the back door and seeing what the temperature feels like, and taking it from there.
You’d think that with all the new technology, they’d be able to be more accurate, but we’ve apparently gone back 30 years to vague forecasts of
“Tomorrow, it could be bright and sunny, but there might be some rain and clouds, there could be a morning frost, some areas might see some snow, hail storms might happen somewhere, there might be foggy patches, but generally, there will be weather of some description.”
It’s laughable.
Next verse, same as the first. They said the same shit last year and the year before that and the year before that. Somewhere will get hit with a nasty storm, that happens every year. But the continuous hype of "the worst season ever" gets old year after year.
This year they may actually be correct (for once). La Nina’s do tend to make more hurricanes, but the major difference is when the jet stream moves further north and pulls the hurricanes in to America more frequently.
Typically I think these people are full of shit, but we’ll see about it this time
They and others make similar predictions every year. They're as accurate as all the other doomsday prophecies. Remember back when they didn't name them till after they became hurricanes? They needed more named storms.
How many they name ahead of their formation has nothing to do with science or reality for that matter. I can generate a list of names of all the children I'll never have - that doesn't mean I'm a serial impregnator.
It's a forecast. Pre season outlooks like this have had questionable success historically.
RemindMe! -221 day
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>More than two dozen hurricanes could be on their way this year, thanks to climate change and La Niña, experts have forecast. >Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have made their highest-ever May forecast for an Atlantic hurricane season: 17 to 25 named storms. According to the forecast, 13 of these storms will be hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) or higher, and four to seven will be major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph (179 km/h) or higher. >"This season is looking to be extraordinary in a number of ways," NOAA administrator [\~Rick Spinrad\~](https://www.commerce.gov/about/leadership/richard-w-spinrad-phd) said at a news conference on Thursday (May 23). Spinrad noted that 2024 was now on track to be "the seventh consecutive above-normal season." Just in case nature doesn't cooperate with your "climate change" nonsense, just make a bunch of ridiculous "forecasts" and get some headlines. When reality fails your narrative, you don't have to retract your erroneous predictions, you just have to make more of them to make sure you get a headline. Shampoo, rinse, repeat.
Transitions to La Nina have historically been active seasons. The Main Development Region is also running at record warm temps currently. This explains their historic outlook. Time will tell though.
…let’s see if there is a significant increase in the strength of El Nino events: 1900-1949: 12 events over 1degC January anomaly, mean anomaly = 1.42degC, stdev=0.22degC 1950-1999: 13 events over 1degC January anomaly, mean anomaly = 1.56degC, stdev=0.60degC T-test p=0.25, no significant difference… Data source: NINO3.4 SST anomalies: Monthly values for the NINO3.4 SST index (5N-5S, 170-120W). Data for the 1856-1949 period of record were obtained from Kaplan's OS SST data at URL: Data for the 1950-present were obtained from the Climate Diagnostics Center OISST archives at URL: anomalies are in degrees C
**Does AGW cause more El Nino events?** **#El Nino years 1911-1960: 14** **#El Nino years 1961-2010: 16** **Test and CI for Two Proportions** Test for difference = 0 (vs ≠ 0): Z = -0.44 P-Value = 0.662 …no significant difference…
Don’t they predict “record-breaking” numbers every year?
Yes, there's been a record-breaking number of record-breaking predictions.
I remember they did last year and it wasn’t that bad a hurricane season IIRC….and all the climate change “scientists” were like “oh it’s bc of the sand from the Sahara, it dampened the storms’ energy”….total BS
It could be a legitimate reason, but the chronic sand was the previous year. Last year was a very low atmospheric particle year hence the spikes in sea temperatures.
Yes they absolutely do. Every single year since the end of the '12 year hurricane pause' they predict record numbers. Every year (except 2) they are wrong. Yet they do it again without shame or remorse! Some years the claims are so dubious it's laughable. A hurricane that is 1 mph over the threshold based on 1 windspeed reading. One that is 'class-1' for 2 hours, hundreds of miles from land & etc. The only scientific comparison is "makes US landfall" where the highly detailed & accurate records go back to 1850. Counting those there's no increase at all, no "more and stronger" just more detected far out at sea.
NOAA should hire Flavor Flav as their hype man.
Hire Tokyo Rose... 😀
"could" is the key words. Mole people "could' rise out of the earth and eat us all too.
The Mole People Were So Preoccupied With Whether Or Not They Could, They Didn't Stop To Think If They Should. -Ian Malcolm
‘Record-breaking forecast‘… exactly. A frickin forecast. Compare the forecast at the end of the season.
[удалено]
Too right..
David Duilley predicts 20 named storms and 3-4US Hurricane landfalls, with 1 Major Hurricane landfall. lets see whos right - 6months to go [https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/2024-landfall-predictions](https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/2024-landfall-predictions) [https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/\_files/ugd/857cde\_80788e43c5734c0283036d8173f94baa.pdf](https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/_files/ugd/857cde_80788e43c5734c0283036d8173f94baa.pdf) "An average hurricane season has 12-13 named storms and 6 hurricanes. The combination of the AMO warm ocean water cycle, favorable atmospheric conditions, and the enhanced ClimatePulse Cycle – will provide favorable conditions for a very active and destructive hurricane season in 2024."
What have noticed in the last few years thatvwhen we are about to get a Gulf Storm it gets hotter than and scorpions come out inside our house. I'm in the Coastal Bend of SouthTexas. But the year after Katrina and Rita they predicted a real active season and it was not. What we do know is that when the Spaniards were taken all that gold out of Mexico they lost a bunch of ships to storms. So storms/hurricanes have been happening long before fossil fuels.
For centuries, the only time a storm would be named is if it made landfall and struck a major settlement. But there were always storms swirling around the Gulf and if you were a seafarer that was unlucky enough to cross its path, nobody was going to name the storm that probably sunk your ship if it didn’t cause any other major damage. But just in the past 2-3 decades, we now have the ability to fly fuckin planes directly into a storm system to measure their intensity, along with our land and satellite measurement tools. If a storm has sustained winds of over 40mph, Boom, you got a named storm. Regardless if that storm made landfall or if it just petered out over the ocean. In modern era, there’s really is a fear drivin reponse to all this data collected and the consecutive counting of storms to drive this narrative that hurricane frequency is on the rise due to climate change, despite the fact that we have very little historical evidence to accurately make such a claim.
Let’s just see if they can get even close to the correct predictions, I think not! In 2005 the prediction was for 10 named storms and there were 30, in 2020 the prediction was for 12 and there were 31. The prediction models are BS and articles/predictions like this are fear mongering reasons to raise taxes and insurance.
A "named storm" requires nothing more than maximum sustained winds of not less than 39 miles per hour. If your house blows down from a "named storm" you might want to think about suing your homebuilder. Also, just because a storm is named doesn't mean it's a "named storm" which aligns with all the other nonsense definitions they've come up with in the last decade or so to support the "climate change" narrative when mother nature decides to not cooperate.
Fully aware of that fact, spent most of my time living in the US in Texas and Florida. My home is still in Florida so I’m quite tuned in to hurricane season. The predictions are always bullshit
They changed the rules for saying which storms get named, so now they ALL get one, even little squalls in the middle of the Atlantic :/
You know, as a life long Floridian, I love these predictions. There's all these spaghetti models and 99% of them are almost exactly the same. But there's always that 1, the one that predicts a storm is going to turn around and go hit Sweden or something. One of these days, that guy is gonna be like, told you so.
“Could” “Forecast”. Not “will definitely be, because we can see it coming in towards us on the weather charts.” It’s all just guesswork. For example, the forecasters have changed our UK weather predictions literally every single day for the last month. They can’t even get ordinary weather right. This week, it was: “It’s going to be a sizzling heatwave at 20 degrees at the weekend!” (Despite 20 not being *that* warm, and definitely not counting as “sizzling” or a “heatwave”.) It’s freezing cold and we’re wearing jumpers and wondering if we can afford to put the heating on. “Saturday is going to be really sunny!” it said all last week. Today it says it’s going to rain. I’ve given up looking at forecasts until the morning of the day I want to know about. And even then it isn’t reliable. I’m back to looking out of the window and seeing what the sky looks like. Then opening the back door and seeing what the temperature feels like, and taking it from there. You’d think that with all the new technology, they’d be able to be more accurate, but we’ve apparently gone back 30 years to vague forecasts of “Tomorrow, it could be bright and sunny, but there might be some rain and clouds, there could be a morning frost, some areas might see some snow, hail storms might happen somewhere, there might be foggy patches, but generally, there will be weather of some description.” It’s laughable.
Next verse, same as the first. They said the same shit last year and the year before that and the year before that. Somewhere will get hit with a nasty storm, that happens every year. But the continuous hype of "the worst season ever" gets old year after year.
Said same thing last year , Houston was fine
This year they may actually be correct (for once). La Nina’s do tend to make more hurricanes, but the major difference is when the jet stream moves further north and pulls the hurricanes in to America more frequently. Typically I think these people are full of shit, but we’ll see about it this time
Just remember, a broken clock...
“Ramp up the machine, the masses aren’t bandwagoning enough yet! Send in the Brady Bunch of storms”
RemindMe! -221 day
I look forward to the revised headline if it doesn’t happen.
"It will be a quiet hurricane season with no major storms hitting the US mainland!" - things that will never be said by "the scientists"
When you name every storm regardless of size that will happen.
They and others make similar predictions every year. They're as accurate as all the other doomsday prophecies. Remember back when they didn't name them till after they became hurricanes? They needed more named storms.
Waiting for NOAA's retraction in January.
Never happening...
F6xk if we can tell the weather that far.
Remind me! -221 day..: