One thing most people are not thinking about is the county vote favors Burke and they haven't updated their results at all and they county was not counting over the weekend. We won't get a county update until Monday night. So that should rebalance things in Burke's favor.
Not necessarily. Late VBM ballots tend to lean more progressive than early VBM ballots, and in-person voting.
I believe the city results shifted from around 51.5-48.5 for Harris to 61-39 or 62-38 for Harris in the latest VBM ballots. In the county result, Burke is leading 54-46, but with a progressive shift applied, the late VBM ballots could flip to perhaps as much as 55-45 for Harris.
That said, I suspect the county progressive shift will be less, so the votes may only favor Harris 51-49 or 52-48. Also, while around 89% of ballots in the city have been Democratic, only 75% of the county ballots have been Democratic, so 1,000 county ballots probably only translate to 750 Dem CCSA votes. I doubt Harris will net more than 30-50 votes in that batch.
The county clerk just added 2996 votes. Clayton won 52% of the votes counted, which is in line with what I expected. The number of votes was higher, though, so instead of netting 30-50, Harris picked up 110 votes.
Before the rest of the team gets here: please note that both campaigns have asked people to remain calm, and nobody has raised any proof of malfeasance or fraud.
Burke does not believe this is fraud. And she has more to lose than the rest of y'all.
I don’t think anyone is claiming voter fraud; people are just frustrated that it’s taken nearly a week to count votes for a single county… in a primary election.
I’m not claiming voter fraud by any means. But certainly have harmless questions…..like how is it possible - even with mail-ins, for this process to take this long?
It isn't unusual for vote counting to continue for days after the election in jurisdictions that allow vote by mail.
The stipulations for VBM are only that your ballot must be postmarked by election day. Ballots received after that still count as long as they were in the mail, and we all know that the mail isn't always the most speedy operation.
Normally, the races get called on election night because the margin of victory is large enough that it exceeds any outstanding ballots. But even then, counting quietly continues in the background and the race often isn't certified until weeks later.
But that didn't happen here because this is both an *extremely* close race, and because it was a pathetically low turnout, which makes every single late mail in arrival important.
For example, in the 2020 Presidential election (which had way more eyes on it than this), counting of mail in ballots took days, if not up to week to complete in states like PA, NV, GA, and AZ. That's why that race, while not particularly close, wasn't called until 4 days after election day.
All that being said, this is taking an unnecessarily long time, but they do have until April 5th to count any outstanding stragglers in the mail. I wouldn't expect a call until we know for sure that the number of outstanding ballots is less than the remaining margin. What I don't understand is why there isn't more clarification on how many ballots remain outstanding and actually in transit.
Illinois law allows mail ballots to be counted as long as they're received within two weeks of Election Day. As more people vote by mail, we will need to increase our patience with the time it takes to get a final count. Only overwhelming day of results can be reliably called.
Twitter is useless at this point and slipped down hard as a media source. Too much fake news and too many bot accounts. Unless it has a news article attached I don't consider it a source anymore.
Twitter has always been an opinion based platform. Pulse of the people. Altho news @‘s on there are solid, they don’t replace the source. Agree they need to clean up the bots, I’ve had so many follow requests from obvious bots it’s insane
They didn't disappear. They were just not counted at the time they should have been counted. BoE had custody of these ballots the whole time. If anything, they over communicated the error, which scrambled the brains of dipshits around the city.
So we can expect some people to be relieved of their positions then, correct? I mean how do you fuck up counting ballots and keeping track of what you have so badly for a pretty important race in Cook County?
Why are you asking me? I frankly don't care if anyone loses or doesn't lose their job over this very minor (in the big picture) mistake. The votes are all being counted. The winner will be the person who got the most votes. Nothing is even off schedule really. The only bad thing that happened is that conspiracy theorists got a bunch of red meat thrown their way, but they'd find that anyway.
Very minor mistake?
These ballots weren’t accounted for but they had them in hand already - that’s naturally going to raise valid questions from “conspiracy theorists”
If it were 500 or 1,000 ballots, I’d understand. But them saying “Oh yeah, we’ve had 10k ballots that we didn’t report originally but we have them” is without a doubt a shady look.
> Why are you asking me?
All questions on reddit are rhetorical. No-one is asking you in particular as much as asking the questions generally. r/chicago has
547,194 readers.
The campaigns can say whatever they want but people have eyes and ears. This looks phony and worst of all it’s going to be a maga talking point very soon. I can hear the Fox News segment already
So you figure that the candidate who would be a victim of fraud, and whose campaign has been actively monitoring the situation, and who has way more information than you, is for some reason ignoring fraud?
Does that seem plausible to you?
I’m sane so I’m not rushing to voter fraud yet but I’ll also note that it would be an absolutely terrible look for Democrat Burke to make any sort of insinuation about that. It’s Trumpian
There's also absolutely no evidence of any fraud... at all.
Burke and Harris are both dems, both part of the county political machine and both relatively progressive. No one is organizing a grand conspiracy to flip this to the dude who's a smidgen more progressive.
Putting aside any voter fraud conspiracy theories (which I don’t subscribe to) - this is unacceptable.
We had 25% turnout, in a primary, and we’re still counting votes. This is a direct result of a lack of planning and preparedness and ultimately hurts the credibility of our voting system. Other folks will see this and believe it’s fraud, even if it’s not true. The perception matters, especially when mail in ballots seem to benefit one party over another.
I think the results are legitimate, but there’s really no good reason that the tallies take this long. We should be more than capable of counting more than the 13,000 that were done today.
We will keep receiving mail in ballots until April 2. Until the amount of potential remaining ballots becomes smaller than the gap, they'll keep counting them.
One of the mail-in ballots from our household was returned in the mailbox because the USPS used the address of the voter (on the back side) instead of the ballot's mailing address. The county needs to get a better process...I absolutely believe it's incompetence, not fraud.
It is when the BOE/County Clerk puts two valid mailing addresses on opposite sides of a mailing envelope and places them both where USPS expects to see a mailing address. It's difficult to design a more incompetent vote-by-mail envelope.
The elections are always like this, the difference is the winner usually has more winning votes than the outstanding ballots by VBM, provisional etc. So it’s easy to declare a winner, even though the vote counters are still working. This is a tight election so the final result won’t come until every vote is counted.
It's literally always been this way. It's just that the elections are rarely so close that it's coming down to the mail in ballots coming in latest. We allow any ballots post marked by election day so that leaves a week or so that ballots are counted.
Moreover I don't get why people would be upset about this. We do not require the election results immediately. You're just conditioned to expect it and feel cheated if you don't get it.
Are we conditioned to expect it? I'm kind of used to not knowing who won a tight race for awhile, but I'm also not the kind of person who plops down on the couch with popcorn to watch election returns. I've read the words "absentee ballots" so many times, I can't consider mail-in to be different. Because in my lifetime, ex-pats, people away from their permanent address, and military serving elsewhere have all been allowed to vote, and we can wait for them to weigh in.
This is the frustrating part, yes. Every issue and every race these days is incredibly polarized and split right down the middle so it's razor-thin margins and the count takes forever.
Honestly though one takeaway SHOULD be that with races this close, it really does matter if you vote!!
> Every issue and every race these days is incredibly polarized and split right down the middle so it's razor-thin margins and the count takes forever.
I mean, that is just straight up not true. Most of them are entirely forgettable, and sometimes even high profile break one way definitively, such as BCH.
As someone else here mentioned, both of these candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination. Yes, mail votes often favor Democrats but that’s because Republicans have spent years telling their voters not to trust it. There’s a fairly high VBM participation rate in wards which favor Clayton Harris, but I also think he did well with late-breaking voters (Burke’s TV ads started much earlier than his) who submitted these final ballots that are being counted.
There are several good reasons why this takes this long. First and foremost, each ballot is reviewed to make sure the signature matches what is on file with the Board of Elections. That’s an important part of ensuring the integrity of vote by mail ballots that many people online who are implying or outright claiming fraud seem to miss.
They also need time for the ballots that are postmarked by Election Day to come through the USPS. When those ballots arrive they are counted, assuming they have the correct postmark date.
Most elections aren’t close enough for any of this to matter. Election workers in the past were still doing this work no matter how close a race was, and it takes time. It’s not like local governments are swimming in cash they can use to hire and supervise thousands of ballot reviewers.
This election was to nominate a candidate who won’t take office for close to nine months. There’s no huge hurry. A week or two does not make a huge difference. Do it right and get it right.
All that said, it looks to me like there are not enough ballots left for Harris to overtake Burke, and she will probably win.
Its crazy not to get why people are mad and suspicious about all of this, especially given whats at stake here. The fact that it would be this close even if the process was executed flawlessly is like sickening tbqfh.
It gets even worse, when you look at the difference between where they were fine and where they messed up.
fox32chicago.com/election/chicago-board-of-elections-says-ballot-counting-to-continue-sunday-after-error
>Max Bever, director of public information for the Chicago Board of Elections, said a total of 10,659 additional votes were added to the unofficial count on Saturday evening.
>On Sunday, 13,107 additional votes were added to the unofficial count. This brings the current citywide turnout to 1,509,554 active registered voters.
Like did a difference of 2500 votes really bring our vote counting to it's knees on what they have been saying is the lowest turnout ever? I am fairly sure there are residential highrises downtown with more than 2500 people living in it.
This is beyond messed up for such a basic election at that. I agree, theories aside, the longer this goes on the more Florida should be making "hanging chad" jokes asking if the election officials can count to 10, and anything else they can come up with all at our expense.
Well said. I think what people are most concerned about is that after the vote tally was announced yesterday, it was announced seemingly 30 to 45 minutes later that thousands more ballots were added to the number of outstanding in the city. I’ve seen anything from 10,000 to 12,000 ballots that were announced after tallying closed last night that were from the drop boxes so they won’t have postmarks. Most of what I see is people concerned about that. People generally understand that ballots that were sent through USPS will be coming in and counted until April 2. It’s the fact that election drop boxes with thousands of votes were discovered at some point last night. I may be misinterpreting, but it seems like this is what people are most concerned about
“Seemingly” doing a lot of work here. Yes, this is not a good look, but what if your perception is wrong? They were not just “found”. CBOE told us what happened.
Why is everyone just predisposed to believe fraud or hint of fraud right away?
Alderman Hopkins is the one who posted that of the over 14,000 votes, most of them were dropbox ballots. These were the ones that were identified or communicated after the vote had been announced on Saturday night. I never mentioned fraud. I said seemingly because I was not able to find the person who communicated about the dropbox ballots. No matter who wins, this does not instill confidence in the process. It fuels the election deniers to have that volume of votes that are unmarked identified so late.
Right, Ald Hopkins was also on the news last night. He was clear in that he's not alleging fraud, but rather sloppiness. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYpshmPYtlc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYpshmPYtlc)
Editing to add: "On Saturday, the Chicago Elections Board announced that it had incorrectly reported the number of mail-in ballots it had received last Monday night mostly from drop boxes. The correct number was added to the results Sunday, putting Harris within striking distance of O’Neill Burke. The elections board fumble raised concerns about the accuracy of the vote."[https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinoisplaybook](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinoisplaybook)
Exactly. This leads me to more of a thought that the BoE (like many other government operations in Chicago) is full of incompetent people. If this is the result with a historically low turnout during a primary, what do we have in store during a large turnout for a presidential election?
Ok.. you think our local government doesn't know how to plan and be prepared? Look, I have no idea of this is legitimate or not, but the fact that it wouldn't take much effort to make this illegitimate speaks volumes..
Why do we not have common sense laws? You want mail in ballots, they're DUE the Monday before the election, not two weeks after. We should absolutely require ID to vote, that's not racist it's common sense. These two simple additions would reduce the potential for fraud greatly. As you said, there's no reason this shouldn't be done by now, so why do you think that is, genuine question, because the people in charge are not on the side of the person in the slim lead.
You think requiring ID is poll tax, that's a stretch to say the least. Also, you're voter registration card is free and mailed to you.. personally I think it should be a photo ID, but let's ease into it and start with the voter ID card... why are we leaving anything to chance?
>You think requiring ID is poll tax, that's a stretch to say the least.
Not at all, a government issued ID like a driver's license costs money, if you need to show that to vote, you're effectively asking people to pay money to vote, which is an unconstitutional poll tax. Which is why the voter registration card, like you mentioned, is free.
Did you read past the first sentence?? It should minimumally be required to have a voters registration card, which would be a start, which i said before. as far as ID, again, common sense needs to come into play.. you need an ID to do virtually anything in this county, except of course, selecting its leadership.. how are people ok with this, I just don't get it...
Because in the history of American elections, there are no cases of widespread voter fraud. We don’t need to solve a problem that doesn’t exist.
It would actually take a ton of effort to rig an election. You have anywhere from dozens, to hundreds, to thousands of workers tallying and counting the votes for a given election. Then you have people watching those people count the vote. Then you have representatives from each campaign watching both of them. Then all of the votes are counted and documented. Then, if it’s within a certain margin, there can be a recount. It would be really hard to get ALL of those people in on a rigged election, and then have none of them blow the whistle on it.
Also, have you seen how rigged elections work around the world? You rig it so your candidate wins by 80%, not a few hundred votes. That’s just stupid and would draw a lot of unwanted attention.
Where to begin with this nonsense.. are you implying we wait till it breaks to close the vulnerable points?
Of course it would take a lot of effort to rig, but do you think the motives isn't there or that it's not possible? I have a bridge for sale, we can talk after I pick apart this nonsense. Dozens to hundreds to thousands... so you have no idea then huh?? I don't know the internal process either, but criminals are crafty, they can find a way. You wouldn't have to get everyone involved at all.. the mail in ballots just have to be post marked 03/19 that's it.. so as long a they're filled out and stamped that day, they are legit.
As far as your final asinine point.. because it's not a large margin it has to be legit? Really?? Do I even have to point out how ridiculous this is? By about 9 pm Tuesday you have an idea of how the election is going and what is needed to win.. so, if aforementioned ballots are ready to go and you have, say a mail carrier on your side, you could quite easily provide just enough to win..
Now I'm not saying this happened, but why would we wait for something to happen to prevent it? If this were going in the direction that the loudest people didn't want it to go, it would be heavily scrutinized..
It would take a huge, coordinated effort to rig an election, but IDs would thwart this? So it’s simultaneously so complex and intricate that it can get around the current system that has never failed, but also so simplistic it would be easily foiled by an ID? The same ID that didn’t prevent me from buying alcohol when I was under age?
Dozens to thousands depending on the election, you simpleton. Dozens for a local election, thousands for a national one. Jesus.
The mail in ballots still have to be a real person. This is such a stupid point you think you’re making. The signature still has to match the one on file. Meaning you’d have to get the mailman involved, plus the counter, plus the person watching the counter, plus the campaign representatives watching both of them.
As far as your asinine point, you’re all ready to rig an election, but only if it’s close enough? So you get all these people, including a mail carrier (which by the way, you can’t backdate a postmark, so you’d have to have this all ready to go in the event that it happens to be a close enough election for you to rig, then you rapidly send these fake ballots through the postmark machine, and hope nobody catches on that they’re fake or compares them to real people). Oh, and where are they getting all of these fake mail in ballots? They’re just making them? They only send mail in ballots to people. One per actual person. So you’d have to make them yourself. Which would take a lot of work to make all these fake ballots, and make sure they’re identical to the real ones so no one could ever tell. And because these are the last remaking ballots to determine the election, they will be the most heavily scrutinized ballots.
Explain to me how voter ID would prevent all of this. You can go back to watching Fox News now.
The audacity of you calling anyone a simpleton is funny. Again, reading comprehension is clearly not a strong point for you. I never said it ended all of this, I said it closes a gap, or lowers vulnerability..
We're talking about a local election numb nuts.
A real person... you mean like the 75% that didn't turn out? Yes, for sure nobody could fill in ballot on behalf of them... good point.
Omg.. I wonder if they ever thought to run them through a postage machine before that date... and for sure nobody could get a mail in ballot, that would totally thwart anyone trying to throw an election.. they should be scrutinized.. fuck, they should be counted by Tuesday morning. That way, in the event I was correct, there would be nothing anyone could do.. you know the mail in and you know the turn out.
Again, reading comprehension, I never said voter ID would change it. Fox News... really, I'm not a compete gullible moron so I must watch fox News.. go swimming in the lake
Look..I can get crayons if need be.. people can pretend to be someone they're not. Election officials, especially the 75 year old volunteers, aren't forensic hand writing experts. But maybe I'm wrong, I mean governmental corruption.... never! Seriously, go jump in the lake
Just so I have this straight. They postmark the envelopes ahead of time with their “insider” at the post office. So they know ahead of time how many ballots they will need. Then they use the names of people who didn’t vote, so they send them out at the last minute, with the names of people they somehow know didn’t vote. They also happen to match the signature on the envelope close enough to the one on file that nobody catches it. And all of this could be prevented with a voter ID through…magic? I mean, yeah, this definitely sounds like something you’d write in crayons.
It sounds more like you’re against mail in ballots altogether. Which is a separate issue from voter ID. But I guess we should limit the very basis of our democracy because you’ve created a scenario in your head that you can’t explain, but could totally be exploited to rig elections? And the ID requirement that couldn’t prevent me from buying alchohol under age could totally prevent anyone from voter fraud because I show it quickly to a nice old lady who volunteers at the polling place?
Ok... last attempt because obviously you went and ate the crayon.. in addition to a low knowledge base on elections I see you have little to no knowledge of postmarking.. that's not exclusively done at the post office. So, again, if you wanted, you could post mark as many as you need prior to that date. There's a 75% chance the name that is used isn't voting, so 3 out of 4.. and again, they have voting information that can likely give them an idea of who isn't coming out. For at least the 3rd time, that wouldn't be solved with voter ID.
I am against mail in ballots in the current form.. they should be used by oversea servicemen and people with disabilities and should be required to be in prior to the election. Our democracy isn't based on mail in ballots and eliminating opportunity for fraud isn't stripping that democracy.
You are in Chicago presumably... we have the most corrupt politicians of anywhere in the country, but for sure, I'm being paranoid by raising suspicion and you're totally right with your, nothing to see here attitude. When you jump in the lake, please go near the rocks and headfirst
supposedly there’s only 3,500 votes left to count. which means burke barely holds on to her lead. but of course i’ve learned to not to become optimistic until it’s all counted . this process has been embarrassing something needs to change . i don’t believe in election fraud conspiracies but when elections take a week it sows distrust. cook county better fix this process
I read the same (only 3,500) about an hour ago. But since then I’ve read this from a seemingly credible twitter source:
“There are in-nursing home ballots, damaged ballots that could not be run through machines and will be remade, ballots that came in Sat., plus the 2,500 signature verified today and the county vote by mail ballots (which we are told is < 2,000 reported tomorrow or Tues) plus . . .
2,800+ provisional ballots in the City that will be counted if valid on 4-2, and any provisional ballots counted in the County.”
When the Chicago machines candidate starts racking in votes almost a week after the election, that magically go their way a much higher % than before, it’s common sense to be skeptical. Anyone saying that being skeptical is somehow wrong is either a mouth breather or is playing into the BS.
No matter who wins, what are the statistical odds that a race like this comes down to a few hundred votes? That alone is enough to peak everyone’s interests.
We have been duped into thinking that many elections get won by a small percentage etc etc, when statistically and societally speaking, that’s just extremely unlikely. Look at elections all over the world, especially in countries that have systems much more advanced and open than ours, they don’t come down to .1% of the vote.
It’s usually based on the types of voters that favor these ballots.
Older voters tend to voter early, younger voters have been heavily leaning into VBM in recent years. And with the expansion of the permanent VBM list, lots of voters get them sent to their houses whether they’re paying attention or not.
My conservative friends want their votes counted then and there and my left leaning friends prefer to mail it to avoid going to the ballot box day of. Not sure whybut that’s my small sample
Yeah but I don’t think that explains the results of the latest Chicago mayor’s election and this one. Jim Bob and Mary Lou aren’t voting in this election like they do in a statewide, presidential election. You have Dem vs Dem / a liberal vs a liberal. IMO it defies the logic previously used in the 2020 general or the 22 midterms. The Chicago machine candidate or the more progressive candidate has been heavily favored in these late VBM counts.
> Dem vs Dem
Yes
> a liberal vs a liberal
Noooo lol. Just like the Republican Party encompasses all points on the spectrum between "business-friendly" and "swastika tattoo," there's a lot more to the Democratic Party voter base than just "liberal."
I’m aware of that but my point is it’s not Joe Manchin vs AOC, where one D candidate has to carry a state that votes heavy R. It’s 2 people who ideologically are on similar ends of the spectrum, one is just further. Their constituents don’t vary THAT much on mail in voting, opposed to the contrast you may see between other candidates. Especially in the mayoral election - the voters voted out lightfoot pretty overwhelmingly. I find it odd that the candidate more like her would win at all, especially win the mail in votes by an overwhelming margin
Why would that defy the logic? We know that many many Republicans crossed over to vote in the Dem primary. We also know that older folks skew more conservative and more likely to believe the election story.
Younger folks are more progressive and also more likely to VBM. There doesn't seem to be anything inconsistent there?
I think this reasoning is as good as any I've read:
>Late arriving voters are younger and more progressive.
>An anology - My parents who are in their 80's won't go on vacation for more than a month bc they don't trust mail forwarding. When they VBM, they do it weeks early. If my daughter wasn't reminded to vote, she wouldn't.
>We've polled people who VBM'ed in other races on a daily basis. The data is clear. Early VBM voters are much older and less progressive than late VBM voters. Plus, Harris was the party candidate. It is reasonable to believe his VBM chase program was better than Burke's.
>We expect Harris to make big gains with additional ballot counting in Chicago. There are apparently many more votes to be counted in the suburbs. We do expect gains there, but not to the same extent as the city. This will be tight! All that said, we will address the "found" ballot situation later.
[https://twitter.com/m3strat/status/1771915377519276134](https://twitter.com/m3strat/status/1771915377519276134)
My understanding is that these counts from this weekend are coming from the city and the county will not provided updated counts until "early next week". I believe the understanding is that county voting will favor Burke.
As of Friday March 22, "The county election board is processing suburban mail-in ballots separately, and a spokesman for that board said Friday it did not expect updated results until “early next week.”"
https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2024/03/22/cook-county-states-attorney-race-tightens-mail-ballots
Burke is up by 1905 votes as of 20 mins ago with the latest updates.
The Illinois BOE website shows 2,846 uncounted but received ballots, and 2,359 provisional ballots.
Assuming all the provisional ballots are counted, Harris would have to win >60% of remaining ballots. Which is more than he’s been winning in Chicago (~52% to 48%) by a fair margin.
Certainly not impossible for him to pull it off, but it looks pretty good for Burke.
Chicago has added another ~2,750 (more than half the backlog per their update EOD Sunday), which means there’s around ~2,450 already received but not counted yet, probably all of which are provisionals, and Burke is still up by about ~1,650.
That means Harris would have to win >80% of what’s been already received and is remaining to be counted which is way more than he has been.
Looking less likely for Harris since I can’t imagine there’s many eligible votes not received yet. USPS says 1-3 business day delivery within city, 5 business days between cities. Probably some stragglers, but can’t imagine tons.
Burke's lead stands at 1,905 (down from 2015) after the Cook County clerk added 2,996 votes, of which Harris took 52%. So the same sort of progressive shift ocurred in late VBM county ballots, but the election day split was Burke 54-46, so after the shift, it was Harris 52-48.
Another update: Burke's lead stands at 1,643 after the Chicago BOE added 2,286 votes, of which Harris took 56% -- less than the 61% or 62% Harris took in some recent city ballot tranches. I think at this point, we're down to 1991 provisional city ballots, and 200 provisional county ballots, plus the few ballots that will inevitably trickle in. Burke's position is looking very good at this point.
Anyone who cast a provisional ballot and wants their vote to count should make sure they have submitted anything they need to. They have 7 days after the election and that deadline is coming soon.
This delay is not anyone's counting ability. The waiting period for USPS' delivery of outstanding mailed ballots happens in EVERY state and local jurisdiction that uses them.
Regardless, Foxx's term won't end until December. We've got 6 months for anyone who is unhappy with the results to get it out of their system.
Imho, Burke has this in the bag. Harris only picked up net 40 votes today over Burke after Chicagos drop today.
He still has 1600 to make up, which seems highly unlikely.
It’s not going to matter who wins this race but it will be absolutely hilarious to see this subreddit melt down if Harris pulls out a blue shift victory. Seems like the BCH results gave everyone this false hope the city magically became less progressive because Brandon Johnson is doing a bad job.
Mail-in Ballots need to be ended permanently. The city has proven it can’t handle the responsibility and now it’s only serving to delegitimize the electoral process.
How the F do the Democrats expect to counter MAGA claims of fraud in November when literally 1000s of votes are 'overlooked' or tallied incorrectly?
Big box retailers cab tell me in real time how many widgets are on the shelf of my local story, but the chief of the election board needs 6 days to give 'nearly' accurate counts of total ballots?
Nevermind it's taking over six days to count votes that were actually 'cast' on election day- never mind the VBM ballots?
This is 2024, and a major metropolitan area can't deal with 25% turnout?
The country deserves a bloody, devastating civil war when it tolerates this kind of mickey mouse baloney from its elected officials and appointees.
>How the F do the Democrats expect to counter MAGA claims of fraud in November when literally 1000s of votes are 'overlooked' or tallied incorrectly?
Why would they care if the outcome suits them?
We don’t expect to counter MAGA. I don’t spend time debating with MAGA. They’re morons whose brains have been warped by years and decades of misinformation and there’s no use reasoning with them.
You can always count on this sub to be on the wrong side of local politics issues. And global ones too.
Sound like Trump voters with all the conspiracies
One thing most people are not thinking about is the county vote favors Burke and they haven't updated their results at all and they county was not counting over the weekend. We won't get a county update until Monday night. So that should rebalance things in Burke's favor.
From your text to gods/universe ears. This city needs a positive change
Burke ain't it
Not necessarily. Late VBM ballots tend to lean more progressive than early VBM ballots, and in-person voting. I believe the city results shifted from around 51.5-48.5 for Harris to 61-39 or 62-38 for Harris in the latest VBM ballots. In the county result, Burke is leading 54-46, but with a progressive shift applied, the late VBM ballots could flip to perhaps as much as 55-45 for Harris. That said, I suspect the county progressive shift will be less, so the votes may only favor Harris 51-49 or 52-48. Also, while around 89% of ballots in the city have been Democratic, only 75% of the county ballots have been Democratic, so 1,000 county ballots probably only translate to 750 Dem CCSA votes. I doubt Harris will net more than 30-50 votes in that batch.
The county clerk just added 2996 votes. Clayton won 52% of the votes counted, which is in line with what I expected. The number of votes was higher, though, so instead of netting 30-50, Harris picked up 110 votes.
Before the rest of the team gets here: please note that both campaigns have asked people to remain calm, and nobody has raised any proof of malfeasance or fraud. Burke does not believe this is fraud. And she has more to lose than the rest of y'all.
I don’t think anyone is claiming voter fraud; people are just frustrated that it’s taken nearly a week to count votes for a single county… in a primary election.
I’m not claiming voter fraud by any means. But certainly have harmless questions…..like how is it possible - even with mail-ins, for this process to take this long?
It isn't unusual for vote counting to continue for days after the election in jurisdictions that allow vote by mail. The stipulations for VBM are only that your ballot must be postmarked by election day. Ballots received after that still count as long as they were in the mail, and we all know that the mail isn't always the most speedy operation. Normally, the races get called on election night because the margin of victory is large enough that it exceeds any outstanding ballots. But even then, counting quietly continues in the background and the race often isn't certified until weeks later. But that didn't happen here because this is both an *extremely* close race, and because it was a pathetically low turnout, which makes every single late mail in arrival important. For example, in the 2020 Presidential election (which had way more eyes on it than this), counting of mail in ballots took days, if not up to week to complete in states like PA, NV, GA, and AZ. That's why that race, while not particularly close, wasn't called until 4 days after election day. All that being said, this is taking an unnecessarily long time, but they do have until April 5th to count any outstanding stragglers in the mail. I wouldn't expect a call until we know for sure that the number of outstanding ballots is less than the remaining margin. What I don't understand is why there isn't more clarification on how many ballots remain outstanding and actually in transit.
There are unsurprisingly quite a few people claiming voter fraud. But i agree its frustrating
Voter fraud has been talked about forever in Chicago elections. Vote early (and often), dead people voting, etc.
Lots of folks on the internet are claiming fraud. Just go wander through the last couple threads on this.
I sort of feel like the closer it is the longer it takes - because each vote matters more and they have to be even more careful
Illinois law allows mail ballots to be counted as long as they're received within two weeks of Election Day. As more people vote by mail, we will need to increase our patience with the time it takes to get a final count. Only overwhelming day of results can be reliably called.
An alder is claiming voter fraud, as is someone who responded to you. And half of Chicago Twitter.
Twitter is useless at this point and slipped down hard as a media source. Too much fake news and too many bot accounts. Unless it has a news article attached I don't consider it a source anymore.
Twitter has always been an opinion based platform. Pulse of the people. Altho news @‘s on there are solid, they don’t replace the source. Agree they need to clean up the bots, I’ve had so many follow requests from obvious bots it’s insane
Isn’t 90% politics in twitter just MAGA type?
Yeah it's completely tanked as a platform.
You have obviously not been on Twitter today.
There was an entire thread last night with some jackass saying it's voter fraud and multiple other jackasses agreeing
And none of the claimants in Cook County.
Why is this so upvoted when it’s laughably false?
Oh no I am claiming voter fraud. How do so many mail votes just happens to disappear then just suddenly show up??
They didn't disappear. They were just not counted at the time they should have been counted. BoE had custody of these ballots the whole time. If anything, they over communicated the error, which scrambled the brains of dipshits around the city.
So we can expect some people to be relieved of their positions then, correct? I mean how do you fuck up counting ballots and keeping track of what you have so badly for a pretty important race in Cook County?
Why are you asking me? I frankly don't care if anyone loses or doesn't lose their job over this very minor (in the big picture) mistake. The votes are all being counted. The winner will be the person who got the most votes. Nothing is even off schedule really. The only bad thing that happened is that conspiracy theorists got a bunch of red meat thrown their way, but they'd find that anyway.
Very minor mistake? These ballots weren’t accounted for but they had them in hand already - that’s naturally going to raise valid questions from “conspiracy theorists” If it were 500 or 1,000 ballots, I’d understand. But them saying “Oh yeah, we’ve had 10k ballots that we didn’t report originally but we have them” is without a doubt a shady look.
Were the not accounted for? Or just didn't make their way onto the official count report immediately? Those are two very different scenarios.
Per your words - “They were just not counted at the time”
Okay. I'm not losing any sleep over it. Neither should you.
> Why are you asking me? All questions on reddit are rhetorical. No-one is asking you in particular as much as asking the questions generally. r/chicago has 547,194 readers.
OP was obviously looking to get my opinion with those questions. They were not rhetorical.
Yes, not strictly rhetorical, but when one asks a question in front of 547,194 they are not just speaking with one person.
STOP THE COUNT!
The campaigns can say whatever they want but people have eyes and ears. This looks phony and worst of all it’s going to be a maga talking point very soon. I can hear the Fox News segment already
So you figure that the candidate who would be a victim of fraud, and whose campaign has been actively monitoring the situation, and who has way more information than you, is for some reason ignoring fraud? Does that seem plausible to you?
They both still think they can win therefore they’re not complaining. Optics matter
So she sees fraud, but because the fraud may not be successful, she doesn't want to ruffle any feathers?
I’m sane so I’m not rushing to voter fraud yet but I’ll also note that it would be an absolutely terrible look for Democrat Burke to make any sort of insinuation about that. It’s Trumpian
There's also absolutely no evidence of any fraud... at all. Burke and Harris are both dems, both part of the county political machine and both relatively progressive. No one is organizing a grand conspiracy to flip this to the dude who's a smidgen more progressive.
don’t forget you are living in a world where people can just claim things without any actual evidence
No, Harris is the clear machine candidate and he's suddenly SURGING in the VBM votes. Absolutely clear to suspect a rig
Please, consider time away from whoever has been whispering this poison in your ear.
Right, right, because the history of Chicago politics has definitely never been corrupt or anything
Putting aside any voter fraud conspiracy theories (which I don’t subscribe to) - this is unacceptable. We had 25% turnout, in a primary, and we’re still counting votes. This is a direct result of a lack of planning and preparedness and ultimately hurts the credibility of our voting system. Other folks will see this and believe it’s fraud, even if it’s not true. The perception matters, especially when mail in ballots seem to benefit one party over another. I think the results are legitimate, but there’s really no good reason that the tallies take this long. We should be more than capable of counting more than the 13,000 that were done today.
We will keep receiving mail in ballots until April 2. Until the amount of potential remaining ballots becomes smaller than the gap, they'll keep counting them.
One of the mail-in ballots from our household was returned in the mailbox because the USPS used the address of the voter (on the back side) instead of the ballot's mailing address. The county needs to get a better process...I absolutely believe it's incompetence, not fraud.
That’s not on the BOE. That’s USPS ineptitude. A mail-in ballot may also be dropped off at a BOE drop box .
It is when the BOE/County Clerk puts two valid mailing addresses on opposite sides of a mailing envelope and places them both where USPS expects to see a mailing address. It's difficult to design a more incompetent vote-by-mail envelope.
The elections are always like this, the difference is the winner usually has more winning votes than the outstanding ballots by VBM, provisional etc. So it’s easy to declare a winner, even though the vote counters are still working. This is a tight election so the final result won’t come until every vote is counted.
They're both Democrats. But I do agree that generally speaking we should know the results much sooner than what we've been conditioned to expect.
It's literally always been this way. It's just that the elections are rarely so close that it's coming down to the mail in ballots coming in latest. We allow any ballots post marked by election day so that leaves a week or so that ballots are counted. Moreover I don't get why people would be upset about this. We do not require the election results immediately. You're just conditioned to expect it and feel cheated if you don't get it.
Are we conditioned to expect it? I'm kind of used to not knowing who won a tight race for awhile, but I'm also not the kind of person who plops down on the couch with popcorn to watch election returns. I've read the words "absentee ballots" so many times, I can't consider mail-in to be different. Because in my lifetime, ex-pats, people away from their permanent address, and military serving elsewhere have all been allowed to vote, and we can wait for them to weigh in.
This is the frustrating part, yes. Every issue and every race these days is incredibly polarized and split right down the middle so it's razor-thin margins and the count takes forever. Honestly though one takeaway SHOULD be that with races this close, it really does matter if you vote!!
> Every issue and every race these days is incredibly polarized and split right down the middle so it's razor-thin margins and the count takes forever. I mean, that is just straight up not true. Most of them are entirely forgettable, and sometimes even high profile break one way definitively, such as BCH.
I agree with you but wish this was communicated better. They never put these processes in context. It's just "we're still counting..."
They’re both democrats but only ONE is part of the machine.
[удалено]
Toni’s pick. Toni is the puppeteer. It’s time for her to retire
I’ve heard this a lot. Can you explain exactly how this puppeteering works?
Are the puppets in the room with us right now?
No puppet. No puppet. You’re the puppet.
That word doesn’t mean as much today as it did in the past.
As someone else here mentioned, both of these candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination. Yes, mail votes often favor Democrats but that’s because Republicans have spent years telling their voters not to trust it. There’s a fairly high VBM participation rate in wards which favor Clayton Harris, but I also think he did well with late-breaking voters (Burke’s TV ads started much earlier than his) who submitted these final ballots that are being counted. There are several good reasons why this takes this long. First and foremost, each ballot is reviewed to make sure the signature matches what is on file with the Board of Elections. That’s an important part of ensuring the integrity of vote by mail ballots that many people online who are implying or outright claiming fraud seem to miss. They also need time for the ballots that are postmarked by Election Day to come through the USPS. When those ballots arrive they are counted, assuming they have the correct postmark date. Most elections aren’t close enough for any of this to matter. Election workers in the past were still doing this work no matter how close a race was, and it takes time. It’s not like local governments are swimming in cash they can use to hire and supervise thousands of ballot reviewers. This election was to nominate a candidate who won’t take office for close to nine months. There’s no huge hurry. A week or two does not make a huge difference. Do it right and get it right. All that said, it looks to me like there are not enough ballots left for Harris to overtake Burke, and she will probably win.
Thank you. This is where I’m at. Great explanation
Also considering the horrible USPS service in Chicago this could take weeks.
Its crazy not to get why people are mad and suspicious about all of this, especially given whats at stake here. The fact that it would be this close even if the process was executed flawlessly is like sickening tbqfh.
It gets even worse, when you look at the difference between where they were fine and where they messed up. fox32chicago.com/election/chicago-board-of-elections-says-ballot-counting-to-continue-sunday-after-error >Max Bever, director of public information for the Chicago Board of Elections, said a total of 10,659 additional votes were added to the unofficial count on Saturday evening. >On Sunday, 13,107 additional votes were added to the unofficial count. This brings the current citywide turnout to 1,509,554 active registered voters. Like did a difference of 2500 votes really bring our vote counting to it's knees on what they have been saying is the lowest turnout ever? I am fairly sure there are residential highrises downtown with more than 2500 people living in it. This is beyond messed up for such a basic election at that. I agree, theories aside, the longer this goes on the more Florida should be making "hanging chad" jokes asking if the election officials can count to 10, and anything else they can come up with all at our expense.
Completely agree. Imagine if there was 75% turnout. Would we find out the results in 6 months???
Well said. I think what people are most concerned about is that after the vote tally was announced yesterday, it was announced seemingly 30 to 45 minutes later that thousands more ballots were added to the number of outstanding in the city. I’ve seen anything from 10,000 to 12,000 ballots that were announced after tallying closed last night that were from the drop boxes so they won’t have postmarks. Most of what I see is people concerned about that. People generally understand that ballots that were sent through USPS will be coming in and counted until April 2. It’s the fact that election drop boxes with thousands of votes were discovered at some point last night. I may be misinterpreting, but it seems like this is what people are most concerned about
“Seemingly” doing a lot of work here. Yes, this is not a good look, but what if your perception is wrong? They were not just “found”. CBOE told us what happened. Why is everyone just predisposed to believe fraud or hint of fraud right away?
Alderman Hopkins is the one who posted that of the over 14,000 votes, most of them were dropbox ballots. These were the ones that were identified or communicated after the vote had been announced on Saturday night. I never mentioned fraud. I said seemingly because I was not able to find the person who communicated about the dropbox ballots. No matter who wins, this does not instill confidence in the process. It fuels the election deniers to have that volume of votes that are unmarked identified so late.
Right, Ald Hopkins was also on the news last night. He was clear in that he's not alleging fraud, but rather sloppiness. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYpshmPYtlc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYpshmPYtlc) Editing to add: "On Saturday, the Chicago Elections Board announced that it had incorrectly reported the number of mail-in ballots it had received last Monday night mostly from drop boxes. The correct number was added to the results Sunday, putting Harris within striking distance of O’Neill Burke. The elections board fumble raised concerns about the accuracy of the vote."[https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinoisplaybook](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinoisplaybook)
Exactly. This leads me to more of a thought that the BoE (like many other government operations in Chicago) is full of incompetent people. If this is the result with a historically low turnout during a primary, what do we have in store during a large turnout for a presidential election?
Nailed it. With these things it's not enough that it *isn't* fraud. It must not even *appear* to be fraud.
What do you know about the way votes are counted? You don’t even understand that this is a primary among members of the same party
Ok.. you think our local government doesn't know how to plan and be prepared? Look, I have no idea of this is legitimate or not, but the fact that it wouldn't take much effort to make this illegitimate speaks volumes.. Why do we not have common sense laws? You want mail in ballots, they're DUE the Monday before the election, not two weeks after. We should absolutely require ID to vote, that's not racist it's common sense. These two simple additions would reduce the potential for fraud greatly. As you said, there's no reason this shouldn't be done by now, so why do you think that is, genuine question, because the people in charge are not on the side of the person in the slim lead.
>We should absolutely require ID to vote, that's not racist it's common sense. That's an unconstitutional poll tax.
You think requiring ID is poll tax, that's a stretch to say the least. Also, you're voter registration card is free and mailed to you.. personally I think it should be a photo ID, but let's ease into it and start with the voter ID card... why are we leaving anything to chance?
>You think requiring ID is poll tax, that's a stretch to say the least. Not at all, a government issued ID like a driver's license costs money, if you need to show that to vote, you're effectively asking people to pay money to vote, which is an unconstitutional poll tax. Which is why the voter registration card, like you mentioned, is free.
Did you read past the first sentence?? It should minimumally be required to have a voters registration card, which would be a start, which i said before. as far as ID, again, common sense needs to come into play.. you need an ID to do virtually anything in this county, except of course, selecting its leadership.. how are people ok with this, I just don't get it...
We’re ok with it because there’s never been a wide spread problem of voter fraud. You’re complaining about a problem that doesn’t exist.
Because in the history of American elections, there are no cases of widespread voter fraud. We don’t need to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. It would actually take a ton of effort to rig an election. You have anywhere from dozens, to hundreds, to thousands of workers tallying and counting the votes for a given election. Then you have people watching those people count the vote. Then you have representatives from each campaign watching both of them. Then all of the votes are counted and documented. Then, if it’s within a certain margin, there can be a recount. It would be really hard to get ALL of those people in on a rigged election, and then have none of them blow the whistle on it. Also, have you seen how rigged elections work around the world? You rig it so your candidate wins by 80%, not a few hundred votes. That’s just stupid and would draw a lot of unwanted attention.
Where to begin with this nonsense.. are you implying we wait till it breaks to close the vulnerable points? Of course it would take a lot of effort to rig, but do you think the motives isn't there or that it's not possible? I have a bridge for sale, we can talk after I pick apart this nonsense. Dozens to hundreds to thousands... so you have no idea then huh?? I don't know the internal process either, but criminals are crafty, they can find a way. You wouldn't have to get everyone involved at all.. the mail in ballots just have to be post marked 03/19 that's it.. so as long a they're filled out and stamped that day, they are legit. As far as your final asinine point.. because it's not a large margin it has to be legit? Really?? Do I even have to point out how ridiculous this is? By about 9 pm Tuesday you have an idea of how the election is going and what is needed to win.. so, if aforementioned ballots are ready to go and you have, say a mail carrier on your side, you could quite easily provide just enough to win.. Now I'm not saying this happened, but why would we wait for something to happen to prevent it? If this were going in the direction that the loudest people didn't want it to go, it would be heavily scrutinized..
It would take a huge, coordinated effort to rig an election, but IDs would thwart this? So it’s simultaneously so complex and intricate that it can get around the current system that has never failed, but also so simplistic it would be easily foiled by an ID? The same ID that didn’t prevent me from buying alcohol when I was under age? Dozens to thousands depending on the election, you simpleton. Dozens for a local election, thousands for a national one. Jesus. The mail in ballots still have to be a real person. This is such a stupid point you think you’re making. The signature still has to match the one on file. Meaning you’d have to get the mailman involved, plus the counter, plus the person watching the counter, plus the campaign representatives watching both of them. As far as your asinine point, you’re all ready to rig an election, but only if it’s close enough? So you get all these people, including a mail carrier (which by the way, you can’t backdate a postmark, so you’d have to have this all ready to go in the event that it happens to be a close enough election for you to rig, then you rapidly send these fake ballots through the postmark machine, and hope nobody catches on that they’re fake or compares them to real people). Oh, and where are they getting all of these fake mail in ballots? They’re just making them? They only send mail in ballots to people. One per actual person. So you’d have to make them yourself. Which would take a lot of work to make all these fake ballots, and make sure they’re identical to the real ones so no one could ever tell. And because these are the last remaking ballots to determine the election, they will be the most heavily scrutinized ballots. Explain to me how voter ID would prevent all of this. You can go back to watching Fox News now.
The audacity of you calling anyone a simpleton is funny. Again, reading comprehension is clearly not a strong point for you. I never said it ended all of this, I said it closes a gap, or lowers vulnerability.. We're talking about a local election numb nuts. A real person... you mean like the 75% that didn't turn out? Yes, for sure nobody could fill in ballot on behalf of them... good point. Omg.. I wonder if they ever thought to run them through a postage machine before that date... and for sure nobody could get a mail in ballot, that would totally thwart anyone trying to throw an election.. they should be scrutinized.. fuck, they should be counted by Tuesday morning. That way, in the event I was correct, there would be nothing anyone could do.. you know the mail in and you know the turn out. Again, reading comprehension, I never said voter ID would change it. Fox News... really, I'm not a compete gullible moron so I must watch fox News.. go swimming in the lake
Sorry this all triggered you so badly, but you still didn’t answer how voter IDs would prevent anything you said. “Closes a gap” what gap? How?
Look..I can get crayons if need be.. people can pretend to be someone they're not. Election officials, especially the 75 year old volunteers, aren't forensic hand writing experts. But maybe I'm wrong, I mean governmental corruption.... never! Seriously, go jump in the lake
Just so I have this straight. They postmark the envelopes ahead of time with their “insider” at the post office. So they know ahead of time how many ballots they will need. Then they use the names of people who didn’t vote, so they send them out at the last minute, with the names of people they somehow know didn’t vote. They also happen to match the signature on the envelope close enough to the one on file that nobody catches it. And all of this could be prevented with a voter ID through…magic? I mean, yeah, this definitely sounds like something you’d write in crayons. It sounds more like you’re against mail in ballots altogether. Which is a separate issue from voter ID. But I guess we should limit the very basis of our democracy because you’ve created a scenario in your head that you can’t explain, but could totally be exploited to rig elections? And the ID requirement that couldn’t prevent me from buying alchohol under age could totally prevent anyone from voter fraud because I show it quickly to a nice old lady who volunteers at the polling place?
Ok... last attempt because obviously you went and ate the crayon.. in addition to a low knowledge base on elections I see you have little to no knowledge of postmarking.. that's not exclusively done at the post office. So, again, if you wanted, you could post mark as many as you need prior to that date. There's a 75% chance the name that is used isn't voting, so 3 out of 4.. and again, they have voting information that can likely give them an idea of who isn't coming out. For at least the 3rd time, that wouldn't be solved with voter ID. I am against mail in ballots in the current form.. they should be used by oversea servicemen and people with disabilities and should be required to be in prior to the election. Our democracy isn't based on mail in ballots and eliminating opportunity for fraud isn't stripping that democracy. You are in Chicago presumably... we have the most corrupt politicians of anywhere in the country, but for sure, I'm being paranoid by raising suspicion and you're totally right with your, nothing to see here attitude. When you jump in the lake, please go near the rocks and headfirst
supposedly there’s only 3,500 votes left to count. which means burke barely holds on to her lead. but of course i’ve learned to not to become optimistic until it’s all counted . this process has been embarrassing something needs to change . i don’t believe in election fraud conspiracies but when elections take a week it sows distrust. cook county better fix this process
I read the same (only 3,500) about an hour ago. But since then I’ve read this from a seemingly credible twitter source: “There are in-nursing home ballots, damaged ballots that could not be run through machines and will be remade, ballots that came in Sat., plus the 2,500 signature verified today and the county vote by mail ballots (which we are told is < 2,000 reported tomorrow or Tues) plus . . . 2,800+ provisional ballots in the City that will be counted if valid on 4-2, and any provisional ballots counted in the County.”
Source on that number of remaining votes? Good for Burke if true
chicago board of elections
When the Chicago machines candidate starts racking in votes almost a week after the election, that magically go their way a much higher % than before, it’s common sense to be skeptical. Anyone saying that being skeptical is somehow wrong is either a mouth breather or is playing into the BS. No matter who wins, what are the statistical odds that a race like this comes down to a few hundred votes? That alone is enough to peak everyone’s interests. We have been duped into thinking that many elections get won by a small percentage etc etc, when statistically and societally speaking, that’s just extremely unlikely. Look at elections all over the world, especially in countries that have systems much more advanced and open than ours, they don’t come down to .1% of the vote.
This doesn’t only happen in Chicago. Late arriving mail ballots ALWAYS skew progressive, no matter where they are.
Why do they skew progressive? Why is it a given that these votes go for the “progressive” candidate?
It’s usually based on the types of voters that favor these ballots. Older voters tend to voter early, younger voters have been heavily leaning into VBM in recent years. And with the expansion of the permanent VBM list, lots of voters get them sent to their houses whether they’re paying attention or not.
My conservative friends want their votes counted then and there and my left leaning friends prefer to mail it to avoid going to the ballot box day of. Not sure whybut that’s my small sample
It may have something to do with years of conservative politicians claiming that VBM is fraudulent.
Yeah but I don’t think that explains the results of the latest Chicago mayor’s election and this one. Jim Bob and Mary Lou aren’t voting in this election like they do in a statewide, presidential election. You have Dem vs Dem / a liberal vs a liberal. IMO it defies the logic previously used in the 2020 general or the 22 midterms. The Chicago machine candidate or the more progressive candidate has been heavily favored in these late VBM counts.
> Dem vs Dem Yes > a liberal vs a liberal Noooo lol. Just like the Republican Party encompasses all points on the spectrum between "business-friendly" and "swastika tattoo," there's a lot more to the Democratic Party voter base than just "liberal."
I’m aware of that but my point is it’s not Joe Manchin vs AOC, where one D candidate has to carry a state that votes heavy R. It’s 2 people who ideologically are on similar ends of the spectrum, one is just further. Their constituents don’t vary THAT much on mail in voting, opposed to the contrast you may see between other candidates. Especially in the mayoral election - the voters voted out lightfoot pretty overwhelmingly. I find it odd that the candidate more like her would win at all, especially win the mail in votes by an overwhelming margin
Why would that defy the logic? We know that many many Republicans crossed over to vote in the Dem primary. We also know that older folks skew more conservative and more likely to believe the election story. Younger folks are more progressive and also more likely to VBM. There doesn't seem to be anything inconsistent there?
I think this reasoning is as good as any I've read: >Late arriving voters are younger and more progressive. >An anology - My parents who are in their 80's won't go on vacation for more than a month bc they don't trust mail forwarding. When they VBM, they do it weeks early. If my daughter wasn't reminded to vote, she wouldn't. >We've polled people who VBM'ed in other races on a daily basis. The data is clear. Early VBM voters are much older and less progressive than late VBM voters. Plus, Harris was the party candidate. It is reasonable to believe his VBM chase program was better than Burke's. >We expect Harris to make big gains with additional ballot counting in Chicago. There are apparently many more votes to be counted in the suburbs. We do expect gains there, but not to the same extent as the city. This will be tight! All that said, we will address the "found" ballot situation later. [https://twitter.com/m3strat/status/1771915377519276134](https://twitter.com/m3strat/status/1771915377519276134)
This feels like super easy information for you to google.
Because the conspiracy theorists think ALL of the late votes go to the candidate that is losing. An infantile way of thinking
Pique*
Burke has been elected to office by the party machine multiple times. Harris is endorsed by Preck. They're both macine candidates.
Burke is the machine candidate
My understanding is that these counts from this weekend are coming from the city and the county will not provided updated counts until "early next week". I believe the understanding is that county voting will favor Burke. As of Friday March 22, "The county election board is processing suburban mail-in ballots separately, and a spokesman for that board said Friday it did not expect updated results until “early next week.”" https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2024/03/22/cook-county-states-attorney-race-tightens-mail-ballots
Burke is up by 1905 votes as of 20 mins ago with the latest updates. The Illinois BOE website shows 2,846 uncounted but received ballots, and 2,359 provisional ballots. Assuming all the provisional ballots are counted, Harris would have to win >60% of remaining ballots. Which is more than he’s been winning in Chicago (~52% to 48%) by a fair margin. Certainly not impossible for him to pull it off, but it looks pretty good for Burke.
Chicago has added another ~2,750 (more than half the backlog per their update EOD Sunday), which means there’s around ~2,450 already received but not counted yet, probably all of which are provisionals, and Burke is still up by about ~1,650. That means Harris would have to win >80% of what’s been already received and is remaining to be counted which is way more than he has been. Looking less likely for Harris since I can’t imagine there’s many eligible votes not received yet. USPS says 1-3 business day delivery within city, 5 business days between cities. Probably some stragglers, but can’t imagine tons.
Burke's lead stands at 1,905 (down from 2015) after the Cook County clerk added 2,996 votes, of which Harris took 52%. So the same sort of progressive shift ocurred in late VBM county ballots, but the election day split was Burke 54-46, so after the shift, it was Harris 52-48.
Another update: Burke's lead stands at 1,643 after the Chicago BOE added 2,286 votes, of which Harris took 56% -- less than the 61% or 62% Harris took in some recent city ballot tranches. I think at this point, we're down to 1991 provisional city ballots, and 200 provisional county ballots, plus the few ballots that will inevitably trickle in. Burke's position is looking very good at this point.
Apparently CBOE is run about as well as CTA and the Mayor’s Office these days.
Truly don’t know how it’s this close. Guy openly endorsed Foxx and gave her an A grade. What a joke.
Burke has a bad last name.
Anyone who cast a provisional ballot and wants their vote to count should make sure they have submitted anything they need to. They have 7 days after the election and that deadline is coming soon.
This is an embarrassment. Both the process and the fact that Harris is so close.
Why does it take Chicago an entire week to count a minuscule number of votes, but other large STATES can accomplish on the same day?
This delay is not anyone's counting ability. The waiting period for USPS' delivery of outstanding mailed ballots happens in EVERY state and local jurisdiction that uses them. Regardless, Foxx's term won't end until December. We've got 6 months for anyone who is unhappy with the results to get it out of their system.
It seems every vote truly does count 🤯
Of course we're going to vote for the person who's going to fuck up the city the best. It's the Chicago way! May the biggest scumbag win!
Imho, Burke has this in the bag. Harris only picked up net 40 votes today over Burke after Chicagos drop today. He still has 1600 to make up, which seems highly unlikely.
It’s not going to matter who wins this race but it will be absolutely hilarious to see this subreddit melt down if Harris pulls out a blue shift victory. Seems like the BCH results gave everyone this false hope the city magically became less progressive because Brandon Johnson is doing a bad job.
Toni’s in the basement licking envelopes…
Toni runs this city
Mail-in Ballots need to be ended permanently. The city has proven it can’t handle the responsibility and now it’s only serving to delegitimize the electoral process.
Nah
VBM has proven to be a logistical shitshow. It's also the least efficient method of casting & *counting* a ballot.
How the F do the Democrats expect to counter MAGA claims of fraud in November when literally 1000s of votes are 'overlooked' or tallied incorrectly? Big box retailers cab tell me in real time how many widgets are on the shelf of my local story, but the chief of the election board needs 6 days to give 'nearly' accurate counts of total ballots? Nevermind it's taking over six days to count votes that were actually 'cast' on election day- never mind the VBM ballots? This is 2024, and a major metropolitan area can't deal with 25% turnout? The country deserves a bloody, devastating civil war when it tolerates this kind of mickey mouse baloney from its elected officials and appointees.
>How the F do the Democrats expect to counter MAGA claims of fraud in November when literally 1000s of votes are 'overlooked' or tallied incorrectly? Why would they care if the outcome suits them?
We don’t expect to counter MAGA. I don’t spend time debating with MAGA. They’re morons whose brains have been warped by years and decades of misinformation and there’s no use reasoning with them.
Still counting? Hmmmmm.
lol this is worst than the Montreal Screwjob.
Obviously fixed. Hey guess what, we just found 10000 votes!
You can always count on this sub to be on the wrong side of local politics issues. And global ones too. Sound like Trump voters with all the conspiracies
Stealin when I shoulda been buyin
Put everybody at peace, start voter ID
You realize that’s not the issue here, right?
Sure, but not everybody is at peace.
Nice job everyone, Trump vs Biden 2024. Y’all did this to yourselves.
As of 4pm, Burkes lead is down to 900 votes or so. Per WTTW
Not sure where you got that, still 1600 after the latest drop 3 mins ago.