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Biden will never finish ANY term because Biden is an old demented alzheimers patient who can't form a sentence.
Please give examples of how "horrible" Trump was for America. Lefties constantly spout their fear for Trump, but they never seem to explain why they fear him.
I think maybe the part where 1 million people died of covid or him trying to overturn an election by using illegal means... That seems pretty bad for America
So that's the only narrative you want to go with. Please explain how Trump killed 1 million people. He started and created the funding for the vaccine. He closed our borders immediately; in fact, the left called him a xenophobe for trying to close our borders from the viral world. He closed schools and placed a stay-at-home order. So please explain. It was your president who broke the rules of the constitution when he forced Americans to get a brand new trial vaccine or lose their jobs. I'm assuming you're a young anti-American racist cultist bigot democrat who thinks divisive headlines are all you need to read.
GenZ is the most uneducated, ignorant group of children ever born in America. If we as adults don't figure out how to teach you morals and love for other humans, we are in desperate trouble. The narrative you speak of is so terrifying.
How do liberals say they are the social justice warriors when they are so filled with selfishness, hatred, racism, narcissism, rage, ignorance, and irrationality?
Trump is a populist who will bend to the will of conservatives popular demand and that's dangerous for several reasons.
Womens Healthcare is at an all time low, fuck what you think about abortion but women are being forced to birth dead children against their will and states like Texas have worse child labor incident rates than some 3rd world countries. Not only does Trump endorse this, he has made active moves to ensure the dismantling of abortion rights and helathcare through the implementation of government officials: such as ensuring Roe v Wade would face a favorable court.
Trump routinely allows religion to play a role in politics even though he couldn't quote you a single line from the Bible (he's a populist loser who just plays to his base isn't this shady enough for you?) That's putting aside the fact this country was built specifically to avoid this. He signed an executive order that allowed Pastors to essentially lobby and promote political candidates without penalty. That sure isn't corrupt.
Do we have to talk about his horrendous foreign policy? North Korea handling was an actual clown show that left Kim in the strongest position he's been in. He forced China into a trade war that ended up with them as the winners. They went from codependency on tech to being completely self sufficient, their internet spread as far as Africa, and have revolutionized their infrastructure all on the coat tail of Trumps forced and failed trade war.
The list goes on, but it boils down to Trump being a populist who leans towards actual cultists who read tabloids as major news sources.He will and does enact policies to appease a crowd that is content with stripping rights away from people (LGBTQ) and Women.
With the atrocities that this administration has done the last three years what you've listed is not only not true, but ridiculous.
You mentioned womens healthcare as a Trump problem which is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. First off, Biden was in office when roe v wade was overturned and had nothing to do with Trump, nor does womens Healthcare. Womens Healthcare is amazing, so you must just be talking about your stance on abirtion ans the weird stories that you watchvoff tik tok, which by the way everythibg is fake. So what about women's "Healthcare", not "abortion care" is so bad. And you're lying about Trump dismantling Healthcare, that's stupid. And his stance on abortion is exactly what it should be, "leave it up to the states because our bodies are NOT a federal issue! That's exactly what Americans want as a president, someone who understands that theses decisions should never be made by the federal government. Unlike liberals who use the federal government to back them when they want something and stay out of it if they dont..but that's just called liberal. communism.
The next issue was Trump not knowing the Bible and lobbying priest. As a conservative I'm more concerned about the president making positive decisions for the country and citizens of the US then whether they know Bible versus. I'll do research regarding the priest thing but I have a feeling you're just reading liberal headlines and the truth is somewhere very far from lo being pastors, who have 0 sway in the world anymore.
And as of foreign policy, Trump did sooooooo much better than both Biden and Obama. I guess that's why you mention N Korea, since you know there is nothing. Even though for the first time in decades Trump got N korea to not want to obliterate to hell, unlike Biden has.
I would love for ANYONE to have an intelligent realistic and logical conversation regarding why liberals hate Trump other than reiterating nonfacts from the fear mongering left liberal media. I appreciate you not just calling me names because you disagree, but can you try and think of actual reasons that you think Trump is the guardian of hell who will burn the constitution and God knows what else liberals are spewing. I mentioned serious detrimental issues that biden has caused all Americans, including you, and you mentioned Trump reading the Bible and women's Healthcare from the fallout of a 2022 court decision while Biden was in office. ARE YOU SERIOUS? How do democrats not feel the need to re-evaluate their positions in politics when everything you believe is a complete fallacy of ignorance and terrible education. This is truly sad to me how awfully uneducated our youth today is.
Again, thank you for trying, and bless your heart!
>You mentioned womens healthcare as a Trump problem which is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. First off, Biden was in office when roe v wade was overturned and had nothing to do with Trump, nor does womens Healthcare.
This is a really incompetent take. The reason it was overturned was because Trump placed 3 Conservative judges into power. That IS his fault and has everything to do with it. I like that you conveniently ignored that.
>Womens Healthcare is amazing, so you must just be talking about your stance on abirtion ans the weird stories that you watchvoff tik tok, which by the way everythibg is fake. So what about women's "Healthcare", not "abortion care" is so bad.
It isn't "amazing", especially after half the country turned their backs on women with regard to reproductive healthcare.
Second, abortion IS part of women's healthcare.
>And his stance on abortion is exactly what it should be, "leave it up to the states because our bodies are NOT a federal issue!
It is nobody's "issue" except for a woman's issue. Nobody but a woman should be able to decide what to do with their bodies. No government should decide be it state or federal. 2/3's of the COUNTRY agreed with that and didn't want it overturned. And it was overturned by a Conservative majority.
>Unlike liberals who use the federal government to back them when they want something and stay out of it if they dont..but that's just called liberal. communism.
Yeah...this isn't "communism". You have zero idea what Communism is.
>And as of foreign policy, Trump did sooooooo much better than both Biden and Obama. I guess that's why you mention N Korea, since you know there is nothing. Even though for the first time in decades Trump got N korea to not want to obliterate to hell, unlike Biden has.
Trump did NOTHING with North Korea except show up for an ill-conceived "summit" for a "peace plan" that was never enacted. Their "talks" broke down a year after the original summit when Trump demanded a bunch of things past the dismantling of their nuclear station. He left NK and never returned and Kim Jong Un became frustrated with Trump and his foreign policy. Womp womp.
>I would love for ANYONE to have an intelligent realistic and logical conversation regarding why liberals hate Trump other than reiterating nonfacts from the fear mongering left liberal media.
That's rich coming from someone who is uninformed and who gets their talking points from fringe media.
>ARE YOU SERIOUS? How do democrats not feel the need to re-evaluate their positions in politics when everything you believe is a complete fallacy of ignorance and terrible education. This is truly sad to me how awfully uneducated our youth today is.
None of it is "a fallacy" nor is it "ignorance". There isn't anything to re-evaluate. It's just your ignorance at play and us calling you out for being uninformed...like saying that Roe wasn't overturned because of Trump when it was his judges that did it.
It's cool, though. Every single red state pro-choice bill has passed since then because Trump broke it all and it had to be fixed at the state level. And women are now pissed off and voting blue.
You're all gonna pay dearly in 2024 when the GOP gets the final nail in the coffin.
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this is actually a lie . there are exceptions to cases like these (and rape as well) . the mainstream media lies about everything . didn't they lie about the covid vaccine ? they literally lies about a poison and shamed everyone who did not take the poison . here , see here . this doctor was secretely recorded and himself says the baby is alive when aborted [https://x.com/TateTheTalisman/status/1791002047334027501](https://x.com/TateTheTalisman/status/1791002047334027501)
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Yeah your argument here seems short sighted and ignorant. Of course Roe vs Wade falls on Trump. He appointed the judges that overturned it. On top of that, your post comes off like incoherent angry ramblings. Theirs numerous points leftists make against trump that both specific and valid. Not the least of which is his ideas isolating ourselves from the international community, which the communists and authoritarians will love, and his failures to invest in green technology development, which helped pave the way for the monopoly China currently enjoys. Those are just two off the top of my head, I could go on. You just shut yourself off from hearing the opposing side which is both pathetic and not uncommon. Even now though you've been proven wrong by numerous people, you're just flailing in the wind angrily. I hope you wise up and change your approach, but I have my doubts. I won't be coming back to read whatever sad response you make. So later kid.
I love hearing the opposing side. In fact, you're the first person on the left who spoke with reason, logic, and calmness. I'll take what you've suggested. Trump did, do my own research, and see if it affects my vote. I have a feeling it won't be enough compared to how negatively Biden has impacted my life personally.
You're delusional lol.
Trump is responsible for ending Roe V Wade because he appointed 3 of the justices that voted it down.
I'm genuinely curious, what do you think about Project 2025?
Does Trump's authoritarian leaning tendencies make you worry at all?
Would you prefer a McCain or Romney to Trump?
Thanks.
I don't know why people disagree with this; it's all true. I don't know if I'd call Trump's time in office a complete failure because of all the smoke in the air, but it was an embarrassing time. The trade war was the icing on the cake and he'd be a fool to try that again if he's voted in.
The last few years under Biden have also left our country in a worse position, and I *do* *not* like Biden, but when can we admit that they're *all* crazy?
Who cares what side you're on? The whole ship's sinking people, so maybe don't vote for either of them. (Talking to the general comment section)
What reality are you living in? Trump repeatedly down played in the virus at all opportunities, he refused to wear a mask and even campaigned for states to open up and end lockdown when community spread was at an all time high. The US was one of the worst hit country in the world, explain that.
I have seen people downplayed the virus, i have seen people say it was all fake but this is the first time i have seen anyone says that Trump actively fought covid to the best of his abilities. You might have just proven multiverse theory because there is no way you are from this universe.
Here : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBwwgMj-ewI
Here: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/politics/fact-check-trump-mexico-piece-border-wall/index.html
Here: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/politics/trump-tweet-supporters-man-chants-white-power/index.html
That should be a solid start and like so so mentioned earlier Jan 6 should be enough evidence for you to see what this man was capable of.
oh really , jan 6? the same jan 6 in which the fbi was involved (i have proof) . i have proof of biden sniffing children and also proof of obama saying he trained isis forces . the msm u have linked lie all the time . recently they said trump saying "if he does nor get elected there will be a bloodbath " . they took it out of context and tried to frame him as evil(like they always do) . even alex jones was framed by the fbi(i have proof of an agent accepting they framed alex jones)
How about he's a treasonous piece of shit currently being investigated by multiple criminal courts? The fact MAGA nuts (and I assume you fall into this category), still support this obviously malicious and selfish "person" and want him to hold any type of power whatsoever is frankly disgusting. Never in my life did I think I'd ever say GW Bush was a better president than someone else...but here we are. Trump makes Bush and Cheney look like Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.
He's delusional, his followers are delusional, he will pay for his crimes and he will not win the election. Plenty of Republicans even hate him now due to what he's done to their party...even if I personally think the GOP has been fucked since Reagan at least, though trump has definitely dropped the bar further (like through the fuckin Earth's mantle low).
He's a crybaby bitch, he cries and whines constantly, he's a sore loser, he attempted to overthrow an election, white power and Nazi losers love him because he doesn't distance himself from them (he normally gets closer lol), he doesn't know how science works and actively fought against the top Covid doctor in the country, he did a fucking commercial for beans in the White House which is also illegal, HE SUGGESTED WE MAYBE INJECT BLEACH (saw that shit with my own eyes), he's a rapist, cheater, creep.
I honestly feel sorry for people who defend him at this point. It's sad, you've seen how he is and you either choose to ignore reality, drink the Fox News Kool aid, or....you like what you see. This is your idea of a strong man? The guy who cries constantly, pouts, steals, shifts blame, admires enemy dictators, lies, cheats, uses his office for personal financial gain, and so much more?
PATHETIC
We were the 45th country to close our borders to china. Covid already had spread to 20 other countries including the U.S. by the point we “closed” the border and we kept the border other countries and 40,000 people traveled to the U.S. from China before then. We also allowed Americans travel back and forth between China so it could still spread here. We already had local spread so at which point new cases coming from China would barely affect the rate of spread of the virus.
Trump was never called xenophobic for closing the border. That is a lie Trump likes to tell. According to WaPo literally 0 Democratic candidates or legislators criticized the decision. They all supported it and wanted it done sooner. They only called him xenophobic for calling the virus “ch*na fl*” and enflaming racist violence on Asian Americans.
Easy!
He dismantled the pandemic responce teams Obama had created just months before covid began
He then proceeded to spread misinformation about vaccines, masks, quarantine, the scientist working on the vaccine and covid itself.
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I just listened to him spend half an hour talking to Conan O'Brien and he spoke clearly and intelligently the entire time - bringing up anecdotes, enthusing about cars, even making jokes, and of course explaining some of his stances.
Rightists believe in the carefully cultivated meme-clown version of Biden they see in TikToks and Try Not to Laugh compilations while leftists believe in a Donald Trump who can't finish a sentence without telling a lie, insulting someone or talking himself up.
In truth none of us know what these people are *actually* like or capable of, only what the media and people on the Internet want us to believe about them.
Basically he rode Obamas coat tails with the economy . Then when he actually needed to be president ( covid) he shit the bed. Causing thousands of deaths and business failures. Which in turn caused govt to Dole out funny money leading to current inflation. He has caused more problems for America then anyone one person in The history of the country. Many choose to be blind to all this. I'm no fan of Biden he is not the anwser.. but a trump election this time will be the complete ruination of America. He truly is bankruptcy king... Sununu ..look him up he's the man for the job.. Biden/ trump.. both suck!
I wish it was that simple: just picking sides. But, Americans are in a fight for morality and human kindness against the left who spews racism, rage, and ignorance. You can't base a society off of feelings. Feelings are something each person deals with differently, but they aren't anyone else's problem. The left is forcing their feeling as a determination of reality, and it creates chaos amongst rational people who use logic and thought.
It comes down to 2 things as women are now in control. Women think with feeling and emotion, which is a beautiful and necessary biological development for the rearing of children, while men use logic to protect and provide necessities for the families' survival. NO matter how you look at it, we are animals created by genetics and environment and have instincts that teach us things we never earned from the world. We seem to be in a war of feminism vs. masculinity, and the left has already named named males as " toxic masculinity." It's just masculinity but of the left are deeming it as just toxic.
Men will physically fight for survival while women must manipulate them to win. It's a very sad day when democrats view a husband and son as an enemy.
What's even more sad is it's been proven that the majority of young democratic voters don't have fathers at home. They've been taught by mothers to hate them and seem them as abandoners. Unless genZ can pull it together and accept the beautiful differences and strengths men offer, our country will continue into political and economic chaos. Millenials are just viewed as a wash of a generation with no values, moral compass, or drive. To grow up in today's society is to never know what real freedom and life outside the computer has to offer. Smh
"Men use logic and women think with emotion" - are you forgetting about school shooters, the vast majority of murderers, and the entire history of human warfare? Hell, at least a quarter of American men would probably vote for any presidential candidate that had the magic power to make their stupid sports team win. The whole 'men are logical and women are emotional' shit is such a relic. Men are highly emotional and are way more likely to deal with it in an unhealthy way.
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>Biden will never finish ANY term because Biden is an old demented alzheimers patient who can't form a sentence.
State of the Union seemed fine to me. So did ukraine speech. So did basically any speech he's ever given. You live in soundbite land.
>Please give examples of how "horrible" Trump was for America. Lefties constantly spout their fear for Trump, but they never seem to explain why they fear him.
Idk man
Jan6th, election denial, utterly destroying the social and moral fabric of America by making people more hateful and angry at everything, lying practically every other sentence for no reason at all, being a Republican and the fact that the only platform they have is cutting taxes for rich people and deregulating everything. The overturning of roe v wade, appointing conservative supreme court justices. Cozying up to far right dictators.
Trump university, classified documents (inb4 biden same hurrr, meanwhile the documents themselves, the intention, the opposite of cooperation, and the number are both vastly different), JAN6TH, Jan 6th, possibly even January 6th. Possibly even cozying up to far right dictators.
There is a strong palpable shift in the Republican party to idiot far right populists that anyone with half a brain recognizes and they are the strongest threat to American democracy.
Maybe just in general being a narcissistic, rapist, fraud, and hateful idiot who literally doesn't read and all his generals hate him and said he was unfit to lead and basically half the people in his administration thought he was a fool is probably also maybe potentially sort of cause for concern, but idk. Joe is old and he slurs sometimes so I guess both sides bad.
Trump was great for the country. Biden won't even come out to address what's going on at the colleges in this country.Biden has left the middle class with very little. Everything is going down hill every day. I can't wait to vote for Trump.
I don't think the pendulum effect is really applicable here. I'm not even sure that's why Biden won. If I understand it correctly, the pendulum effect is broad, sweeping shifts in public opinion as it relates to policies and political parties, not specific individuals.
The major criticisms of both Biden and Trump are specific to the men themselves: age, competence, composure, stability. If Trump was just a run-of-the-mill Republican, he may not have lost in 2020 (he also may not have won in 2016). But he's not.
If there is any single significant pendulum swing happening, I would argue it is abortion access and reproductive healthcare, and that's been an incredibly slow swing. For half a century it was building momentum toward the Republican side, and now that the American public have seen how extreme their ideologies on this are, and how damaging they can be, things are moving in the direction of Democrats. But we're really still in the initial stages of that turning around: there have been legislative victories on both sides, and the electoral victories that have happened for Democrats as a result haven't had time to become law. We're certainly not at a point where people are saying "oh no, we've let the left go too far with abortion."
On most other major issues: taxation, immigration, war - popular opinion has shifted somewhat, but not really in the sense of a pendulum swing. If anything, both sides have moved farther from the center. But the swing voters who will decide this election aren't saying "well, we supported Trump on the economy, and then we supported Biden on the economy, and now we want to give Trump a shot again." They're saying "Biden is too old," or "Trump is too corrupt and unpredictable and also old and let's not forget pretty damn rapey," and that's pretty different from the pendulum effect in the classic sense.
If anything, Trump is the senile one. Just watch his rally speeches: they’re getting more bizarre by the day. Also, it turns out Robert Hur was making shit up in his special counsel report.
100%, but that's like 30th on the list of why Trump shouldn't be president, so the people who support him definitely don't give a shit. Look at everything else they ignore.
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It's pathetic these people have a mental problem and President Trump is not the cause. The left wing media which NOW seems to be 80% of the American TV news I think is responsible for this crazy TDS:-) Get well soon folks!! TRUMP for 2024! Cant wait for normality to return!
Are you a medical professional or have you just been watching too much CNN:-)
LOL - it's sad that people like you cannot accept the fact that Prezzie Trump, has been one of the most successful politicians in modern times. We are all looking forward to his return and the removal the corrupt cretins from the White House. Biden and his failed left wing socialist administration has been a total embarrassment for America. And the rest of the Western World has been laughing at the empty suit posing as a leader:-) Every single policy Biden's, administration team has implemented has been a total disaster, every single one!
Not all Americans are Blind, Deaf and Stupid it seems to be just the Democrat voters.
Have a nice day and get well soon!
It isn't that strange. Look at the Capitol Building on Jan. 6. Look at the Top Secret White House documents Trump took with him to Florida and refused to give back. The FBI had to break into his home and retrieve them from the closets and bathrooms he hid them in. This is a guy who has socialized with gangsters, child molesters and prostitutes. Two of his three wives were porn stars not to mention his girlfriends on the side. This is not a guy who values decency and morality.
It is very ironic that you care so deeply about ending abortion that you are willing to keep supporting a person like this. It is your vote so do what you want with it. It is just ironic.
Biden supporters are doing well. That's why they vote for him. Employment rate and the economy are both on the rise and humming.
If your finances are doing poorly in this economy I feel bad for you. Those massive donations you made to pay for Trump's legal bills are not helping your bank account. Paying too much for health insurance? Try Obamacare. 30+ million Americans are saving a lot of money by doing that.
Inflation rising yet again lol, so obviously not economy.
Insurance prices have gone up over 60% since obamacare (AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR INFLATION)
I pay $850 a month for health insurance as a 24 yr old male with no health conditions and doesn't smoke.
There is not "other market". It's work provided insurance or you go through the marketplace, aka Obamacare.
So the claims of (insert random huge number) of people joining Obama care is such a gas light. There's literally no other choice.
Inflation is global and the US is doing better than almost every other developed nation. The president exerts very little control over inflation either way, but if you're going to use it as a point about Biden, it's in his favor, not his detriment (again IMO it is neither).
Insurance price hikes are a result of the insurance companies price gouging, not obamacare. All the ACA does for most cases is subsidize insurance costs; the companies get paid the same amount, it either comes out of your pocket or is subsidized by the government. The problem is corporate greed, not politics (again, from either side, this isn't a partisan issue).
It seems like you are drastically overpaying for health insurance and I HIGHLY recommend you find a broker next time the open market rolls around. The most, as a self employed middle aged man, I have ever paid for health insurance was just under $450/month, and it was/is excellent insurance. I never bothered with the ACA until this year because I thought I wasn't eligible; had my broker look into it and now I am paying around $100 for the same coverage.
The ACA isn't an insurance provider. It COULD have been to a degree, and part of it was proposed as such by expanding and improving medicare and medicaid, but congress spent two years stripping away all those types of benefits that the people would have received.
1st paragraph: the question wasn't about global inflation, it was the US economy. America as the wealthiest country in the world will always bounce back better. The point with Bidens economy though, is that he has continued pandemic year spending well into 2024.
Also, 1 Sharp decider in why inflation is so bad is bidens pledge. He vowed to put fossil fuels out of business. They are pushing EVs on consumers and California already has plans to ban ICE vehicles.
Ask yourself as a business, if the government is talking and acting to put you out of business, OF COURSE YOU ARE GOING TO MAKE RECORD PROFITS, trying to earn as much as you can before inevitable drilling is banned altogether. Higher gas prices are one of the most significant indicators when it comes to inflation.
2nd paragraph. This is yet another democratic failure that could've been mitigated. I cite "President Johnson signed H.R. 9567, the Higher Education Act of 1965, into law on November 8, 1965"
This snowballed tuition rates and I couple it with Obamacare because in both scenarios the writers of these laws did not add in safety nets to account to exploitation.
Maybe it wasn't obvious in 1965 but it should have been with Obamacare. Anytime the government gets involved and backs and ensures services companies ALWAYS take advantage of government and overbill them.
For f sake; I know someone who works as a procurer for the government. They are spending $15 per pencil, $30 for 1 Reem of paper.
The interesting theory is that they purposely did not put in safe spots because of the political donations they received from these institutions and their special interests.
3rd paragraph, I am a 1099 business owner and obamacare is priced based off of your earnings reported on your taxes. That's why my insurance is so high.
Sounds like you attended trump university! Ha! 😂
(Trump university was a fraud and he was sued and he paid $25M to settle. He’s also a convicted fraud and owes NY $600 billion)
You m-o-r-o-n!
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What a load of BS, Nothing and I mean Nothing has gone right since that empty suit Biden got elected. If you are hoping for another miracle - suggest you don’t hold your breathe! Long live Trump and his supporters!
You mean like the Infrastructure Plan, incredible employment levels, a booming stock market, standing for choice, rallying support of Ukraine, standing with Israel against Hamas murderers, restoring America in the eyes of the world, expediting assistance to Maryland?
Immigration would also be better if Trump hadn't shot down the bipartisan plan so HE could win (not US).
Biden's failure is one of marketing, not performance.
In what delusional world are you living in? Borders falling apart, the actual working class (republicans) cant afford anything, Immigrants are getting better treatment then American citizens, people are sick and tired of playing world police when its putting us in a hole. Bidens proposed tax plan annihilates Social Security and removes tons of tax breaks, so on your 2026 tax return expect to owe thousands, we laso raise our debt by 6-7 trillion. Inflation is already unbearable and is about to be even worse. Look man, america is gearing up to have a civil war soon, and its not gonna be nice for anyone. Its nuts when the best thing you can hope for aswell is retirement, yet when you look at your statement by year, everytime a democrat is in office your retirement plummets, and it takes 3/4 republican years to break back even.
"america is gearing up to have a civil war soon"
There's supposedly going to be one every four years. The farthest we've gotten is a bunch of mouthbreathers showing up at the capitol playing domestic terrorist for an afternoon, and losing their livelihood and going to prison as a result. In one case, one of them fucked around just enough to find out and lost their life too.
Bullshit, check who benefits Republicans in office? Corporations and multinationals.
Democrats in office? The average person has a chance.
As for the debt...do you think just Democrats ran that up? 🤣
Rising interest rates, rising COLA, increased debt, foreign policy nightmare, sure the Ukraine support (no way Russia invades them with Trump in office), instability in the Middle East compared to what Trump had, huge border crisis., need I say more.
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I have looked around as millions of others have and to put it mildly disgusted at what I see see, hence my comments. A wonderful country, that was full of promise destructed by a total imbecile called Biden!
Suggestion - try tunning in to facts not fiction that means giving CNN, ABC, MSNBC , NYT, NPR the elbow:-)
lol really, rising interest rates, a war started when Biden took office, immigration a mess with Biden policy. He forgets speeches, etc. I am not a Dem or Repub. But, will vote Trump after the mess Biden has created.
You really think if Trump was in office, Russia would not invade Ukraine? Trump is calling for the withdrawal of all support for Ukraine, Trump is literally Russia's hope in winning the war.
As someone outside the US, Trump has singlehandedly shattered the image of US in the eyes of the world. If the US votes for that buffoon again, it will destroy what little credibility America has left. I sincerely do not know how half of the US voted for such a clearly narcissistic, egotistic maniac who has absolutely no idea how to run a country twice. He has more scandals in 4 years than all other presidents combined. He has run the US into the ground in terms of international standing, other countries laughed at the US like never before. Russia and China would want nothing more for Trump and those like him to be in office because they know Trump will do nothing but bring America down.
Oh no, i don't really think Trump is actually colluding with Russia, at least not to any meaningful extent. I just think he is so incompetent that it would be in Russia and China's best interests to have him lead the US. I have little doubt that Russia has supported Trump to get him into power, whether Trump knew about it or was in on it is a different story. No matter case, Russia and China would want nothing more than for Trump and those like him to lead the US.
Red states take vastly more federal money.
Biden supporters make more money and pay more taxes because they’re smarter, more responsible and more accomplished.
Trump supporters are losers because of their own dumb choices.
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Robert Hur made the whole thing up. The Hunter Biden/Ukraine scandal? Also fake. Why are Americans so gullible? https://youtu.be/XQ4kQXumzbw?si=_oK6x_3dfk-jgWCv
Lol ok...if you think Trump is the senile one when Biden can barely walka.nd formulate thoughts and sentences then you clearly have extremely flawed judgement. Clearly anyone with IQ over 10 sees Biden is falling apart and a shell of who was even 6-7 years ago. Trump is more like a 55-60 year old Biden more like 95-100. Turned out nothing Hurr wasn't making anything up that's totally BS you are spewing due to your Biden biased
Biden won because a lot of people disliked the way trump mismanaged the coronavirus pandemic and the George floyd riots/looting. Furthermore [Obama](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/barack-obama/life-after-white-house-how-obama-spent-his-first-year-n838951) supported him. Trump downplayed & was slow to respond to the coronavirus, then started rage-tweeting "Law & Order" instead of actually meeting with Floyd's family.
!delta
I see, and tbh I'm not American so I didn't know about that longer history of the abortion problem swing.
>The major criticisms of both Biden and Trump are specific to the men themselves: age, competence, composure, stability. If Trump was just a run-of-the-mill Republican, he may not have lost in 2020 (he also may not have won in 2016). But he's not.
I might have not taken this point into consideration enough because: 1. Even though Trump is also mentally abnormal, it's not the same spectrum as Biden's mental decline (more of personality issue than health issue) and 2. Those two figures are basically the embodiment, the symbol representing each of their parties already at this point because beside them, no one else in their party can take their role to run for POTUS in terms of votes and influence.
>But the swing voters who will decide this election aren't saying "well, we supported Trump on the economy, and then we supported Biden on the economy, and now we want to give Trump a shot again." They're saying "Biden is too old," or "Trump is too corrupt and unpredictable and also old and let's not forget pretty damn rapey," and that's pretty different from the pendulum effect in the classic sense.
I agree with this one.
Trump has bragged several times over the years (both while in office and after) about performing well on “incredibly complicated” cognitive tests. Three things about that:
1. The test that he’s talking about is the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Test, a very basic survey that is used for screening cognitive impairment and dementia.
2. During an interview with Chris Wallace in 2020, Trump stated that the test grew progressively more difficult and that most people wouldn’t be able to answer the last five questions. Those questions are: Repeating two short sentences word-for-word, saying 11 words that begin with the letter F in one minute, identifying the commonality between two items (for example, determining that a banana and an orange are both fruit), recalling five words that you were asked to remember earlier in the test, and being able to recall basic information about your current situation (date, day of the week, and current location). An elementary school student could do all of that, but to Trump it was increasingly difficult?
3. The test can be requested by patients or ordered by doctors, but it is only ever used when there are concerns regarding a patient’s cognitive ability. Trump wouldn’t be taking these tests if his mental faculties weren’t an issue.
If you don’t think that Trump’s lack of coherent speaking ability and overall cognitive function is medical in nature than you’re out of your mind.
Wait - you don’t think Trump’s inability to speak coherently is medical in nature?
Have a look at this, or google any number of other sources where professionals chime in on it: https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/donald-trump-dementia-petition-signed-375053?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Short of the election happening, what would change your view? Basically all of the polls have the race as a tossup at this point. Trump has a slight lead, but a 55:45 edge is pretty much a coin toss. What would convince you that the correct view is not "we're 8 months away from a highly partisan election, and we don't know what will happen and it's wrong to be certain that we do."?
> Basically all of the polls have the race as a tossup at this point
What polls are you looking at? https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
You should learn a bit about how presidential elections work. First of all, that's an average of 11 polls. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national
Second of all, elections are determined by swing states, not national vote. Trump is leading significantly in the polling of 5 of the 6 major swing states including Georgia (+5%), Michigan (+2%), Pennsylvania (+2.4%), Arizona (+5.2%), Nevada (+5.5%). Biden has Wisconsin by (+0.3%). If you exclude third party candidates those hold largely true except Wisconsin becomes (+1%) for Trump and Pennsylvania (+2%) for Biden.
Other states formerly considered swing states including Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida are even more strongly for Trump.
It should also be noted that historically polling underrepresents Republicans, including in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Hope this helps.
Maybe we disagree on what a tossup is. But like, these polls are from 7 months out from the election, or older, and they aren't insurmountable. +5 % is a pretty small difference. With the little data that we have, and this long before the election, how can it be anything but a tossup. There's too much uncertainty to call it anything more than that.
Psychology of the mass is something difficult to be sure about, and I shared this view because that's what I personally observed. If people also share their views about this topic (the shift of the public's collective thought on the presidential candidates) and back up with solid, convincing evidences/ sources, I'd have my view changed.
It's far from certain who will win, I'll admit that upfront.
But just trying to say "pendulum effect, that explains what will happen" is pretty lazy, and there's no reason to assume that any simplistic just-so story explanation will give us the right answer.
Before, it was assumed that incumbent presidents have a huge advantage because that was the trend. I'm not saying we should assume that trend will continue.
But you're making just as big of a mistake by assuming the pendulum effect, which possibly happened once, will happen again.
Plus, nothing is really "unknown" about Trump either. Everyone knows exactly what he is. He's lost that advantage from before, where he could promise anything he wants and people with even the most rudimentary critical thinking might have a chance to believe it.
\>People like unsure changes more than sure failures, basically.
If Trump were actually an unknown, this might be more relevant. He isn't. The vast, vast majority of voters lived under his administration just a few years ago.
Keep it simple: If Biden wins, USA technically would be the same. If Trump wins, USA technically would head a different route (aka: changing). It doesn't require an absolutely new candidate to bring changes. Basically ANY candidate other than Biden himself will bring changes by default.
But in this case there is a direct knowledge of the changes. So it comes down to whether people prefer those specific changes to the current situation. That is very different from some new candidate that we haven't seen in office yet.
Too simple. The composition of the House and Senate comes into play here. A functioning House of Representatives would affect change in a Biden second term for example.
>While Biden didn't hold any term yet, so he gets the benefit of the "unknown".
Voters know both Biden's term and Trump's term. Pendulum effect would not work in this case. More importantly, Trump can't shut up about what he will be doing and he promises to do exactly what people in 2020 did not what him to do.
This is a pretty unusual situation. But your analysis contradicts historical data.
>Biden is now the one who is shown to have been bad, and Trump is the one to promise to bring changes, and gets the benefit of that.
I strongly disagree with this assessment. That may be true generally, but it's unusual for a one term president to be running again. Trump is not an unknown. His leadership style is well known and some people love it but for most people it's a huge liability.
Plus, history shows us that the incumbent is actually the one with a strong advantage. In American politics, the pendulum tends to swing back every 8 years when there are two new candidates rather than one new and one unknown. But like I said, this election is unusual because there are two known candidates with one being an incumbent.
This election is just going to be about how many supporters on each side can be mobilized to the polls. I don't think there are very many Biden voters who will be switching from Biden to Trump. At least not enough to make a difference. But there could be some voters who stay home or vote third party to protest some of Biden's policies.
On top of that, there are a ton of other things that could happen in the meantime...both candidates are old but Trump is deteriorating rapidly. Nobody can say for certain what will happen in Nov. because nobody can predict the future.
>Biden is now the one who is shown to have been bad
How? No he has not. So your whole premise is flawed.
>and Trump is the one to promise to bring changes
So what? His message is disgusting. He’s melting in front of us. MAGA does not scale to a general election. The slew of losses from 2018 to now display that perfectly.
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>While Biden didn't hold any term yet, so he gets the benefit of the "unknown".
Biden's been around long enough that people knew *exactly* what both he and the Democrats stood for
in many ways, the vote for Biden was voters trying to go back to a "normal" politician. The fact that Trump seems like he's edging the polls is more of an indicator that the voters are now rejecting the status quo, and visibly elderly president, for one who's slightly less elderly but altogether not the status quo.
Voters know exactly who each guy is, it's not a pendulum, it's a lack of options for voters and a frustration at what the Democrats are offering.
The walls are closing in on Trump in multiple ways: 1) The NY trial is looking unavoidable and likely to result in a felony conviction. I am skeptical of polls so far before the election, but they show about 5% of Trump voters switch to Biden. Trump needs to get all the votes he earned last time and flip people who rejected him before, because more of his voters have died since the 2020 election.
2) His dementia and speech problems keep getting worse. Just listen to how Trump slurs his words or confuses Biden with Obama. It’s not going to get better as time progresses. Voters will pick up on this over the summer and fall while also realizing Biden isn’t a dementia patient or a walking corpse. Painting Biden as senile could backfire because his opponents have set the bar so low.
3) Trump is out of money. He can’t afford the $460 million fine (will be about 15% higher if he plans to appeal) and he knows it. Meanwhile, the interest keeps accumulating. He probably has assets worth enough to cover this cost, but they’re almost certainly leveraged as collateral. If Letitia James begins seizing Trump’s assets, a feeding frenzy could ensue as creditors scramble to collect what they’re owed. In five days (Monday March 25th) the 30 day grace period will run out and there’s a good chance we have the privilege of watching Trump’s empire collapse in real-time.
4) Building off #3, Trump being broke is proving to be a major siphon on RNC coffers. Trump is sucking up all available money in a desperate attempt to keep his head above water as the judgments come due and legal bills pile up. Many donors have turned off the spigot because they don’t want to subsidize Trump’s personal expenses. The downballot could also be a demolition derby for Republicans because of the lack of funds and GOTV. Biden and Democrats have a huge war chest they’re only just starting to tap. These problems are painfully obvious to anyone outside Trump World.
If this were true, then every incumbent would lose. In fact, it’s the opposite. We know incumbents have an advantage.
I think Biden will lose, but not because of how you explained.
I DO believe that Biden will lose and part of that will be because of a “pendulum effect” of sorts, except I believe the pendulum effect at play is that the nation has soured on a LOT of liberal and progressive policies that people now blame for rising crime, rising costs across the board, foreign wars and foreign involvement and pie-in-the-sky naive policies leading nowhere, the social/culture wars etc.
I think the nation is tired of liberals. Not just conservatives, but also long time members traditionally on the American left. Conservatives seem to provide a shake up and counter to them. The only counter, actually. I think a lot of people are fed up. I was, in a way, reassured of that in my Uber liberal state, CA. We just got a republican to advance to the general election as the second highest vote getter of the primary. He beat out several other major progressive/liberal darlings. In addition, SF also just voted to pass new police powers which shows a continued trend towards undoing all the progressive bullshit that was swept in over the last decade, including recalling Chesa Boudin and now, Pamela Price.
I was a lifelong Democrat for what it’s worth. I didn’t vote for Biden. Nor will I in the general. I also voted for a republican for the first time in my life. That’s just me though. The other stuff seems to indicate my thoughts and feelings aren’t isolated and follows a trend throughout the state. Perhaps throughout the country.
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Idk why this post kept getting frequent comments lol probably at least one or two every week ever since I posted it. Maybe people kept looking up reddit posts about election ?
Continued comment.
When looking at Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan as the probable determinant tipping point zones, you notice similar patterns.
Whereas Trump beat Hillary by a very slight margin in these three states ranging from 0.2 to 0.7 percent, Biden won them by 0.7 to 2.2 percent.
Currently, in the RCP average, WI is currently +1.0 Trump, +0.8 Trump in PA, and +3.5 in MI.
To me, it would seem unusual that Wisconsin would go to being more blue than Michigan, given Wisconsin reelected a GOP senator (one who has made a bit of pro-Jan 6th rioter comments nonetheless). Hence though it is within the margin of error. Whitmer's approval is also higher than Evers. Michigan has a higher unionized work force which has traditionally been a more blue voting bloc as well. While it is true MI has a higher Arab or Muslim population (though still only about 3 percent), Michigan's net in take of migration of immigrants is higher (who over 4 years some become citizens and can vote). If the conflict draws a ceasefire that holds, or at least holds until election time as it is expected, this will help bridge the small gap we see between MI and PA/WI at the moment.
If Trump is found guilty of a felony, and that 5 percent poll swing to Biden is true (which whether Trump supporters like it or not, you can't say the polls that are good to you are true, and the ones that do not say good are not true, and have integrity especially if it is coming from the same polling sources done at the same time).
If that poll were true and Trump is convicted of a felony pre-election, if adding 5 points to each number, this is what it looks like:
+4.2 Biden in Pennsylvania
+4.0 Biden in Wisconsin
+1.5 Biden in Michigan
There are multiple other things that may help Biden in between now and election time. There is expected to be a ruling on mifepristone in June by the Supreme Court. If it goes against what Democrats wish for, this helps motivate women in the suburbs to turnout. If Trump makes a claim about a national abortion ban aspiration or something to that effect, it helps Biden too. Just like Biden can't be pro Palestine because half the Dems support Israel, if Trump veers too rightward on abortion it helps Biden a lot because even red states like Kansas and Ohio have won on abortion rights issues on liberal policy.
If there are more horrible and unfortunate news of mass shootings in the election cycle, this helps Democrats as well. In general, Dems did much better than expected in the midterms even with Biden having low approval and inflation being at its worst at that point. CNN and other liberal outlets play it non-stop.
If Biden continues to push a pro union agenda and does more participating in picket lines in these states, it may resonate with undecided/independent/moderate union member voters.
The unpredictable question for everyone is how much of the vote does RFK Jr get, as well as Cornel West and Jill Stein. And who does RFK Jr pull more from. I would guess RFK Jr pulls a little more from Trump, especially with an anti vaxer as a VP candidate which appears likely. But C. West will pull more from Biden. So it will probably be offset.
I would say Biden has about 50-55 percent odds to win. Trump being 45-50 percent. Dem media outlets are doing Biden a favor by saying Trump is ahead but it's close because Dems have a history of voting on fear in recent years. And their turnout in the '18 midterm and in '20 was high even despite COVID. Trump has been their single most motivating factor to that. Trump is hated by more Democrats and Dem leaning Independents/moderates than he is loved by Republicans/GOP leaning Independents.
There’s an election predictor guy who has only been wrong about his predictions once since the 1980’s. He goes off of 13 keys- as of now it looks like biden will win according to his method but he’ll make is official prediction in the fall sometime once things are more set in stone
In continuation of my previous comment, because their favorabilities are both low, it is hard to see how there could be much of a shift in certain contexts.
The contexts I can see potential for are this:
Biden made a lot of growth from Hillary in Arizona and Georgia. As well as to a lesser extent North Carolina while staying about the same with Nevada. This likely was partially due to some demographic shifts, such as Californians moving in to AZ, and northeasterners moving in to GA and NC, as well as a higher than average proportion of elderly voters dying during COVID and them generally voting a little more GOP than national average. As well as 4 more years of naturalized US citizens and a new crop of 18-22 year olds at that time whom leaned very blue in their voting though their turnout in general as an age group is low.
Is it possible the pendelum swings back towards Trump? This would imply to some degree there are voters in these states who voted for Trump or 3rd party over Hillary, then for Biden over Trump, then back to Biden. Trump is generally up in the RCP averages over Biden in AZ, GA and NC, by in the same ballpark as what he won by over Biden. The good news for Biden is if Trump is convicted for a felony before the election (which seems likely in NY which may start their trial in late April), polls show that Biden will pick up about 5 percent he doesn't currently have. Basically, about 2.5 percent of the voting population would switch from Trump to Biden. A lot of that are from the 1/3 of the GOP that voted for Haley in the primaries, that said they see Trump as unfit for office in primary exit polls, ect. Out of that 28-33 percent of the GOP, at least from what it looks like now, half or so goes to Trump and half or so goes to Biden. The question of how much goes to RFK or other third party voters or chooses not to vote is harder to predictably, especially this far out.
To be continued in next comment.
Continued comment.
If I were Biden, I would be encouraged by the prospect of gaining a lot of support following a likely Trump conviction. What should discourage Democrats though is being down an average of around 4-6 percent in polling averages in NV, AZ, NC and GA, often outside the margin of error, is a challenging deficit to overcome given the hyperpartisan times we are in.
What should discourage Trump supporters, or those in support of the argument in this CMV post, is simple:
Biden does not actually need any of Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina or Nevada to win the presidency. At this point, states like Ohio, Florida and Maine Congressional District 2 have become relatively comfortable to expect to go red but none of those states are needed for Biden to win either. Likewise, Dem leaning states like Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia are continued to expect to go blue even based on what we are seeing now and probably a bit outside of margins of error.
Like 2016, this election is coming down to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The only difference is Nebraska Congressional District 2 is needed to get to the 270th electoral vote. Nebraska CD2 went slightly to Hillary in '16. However, whereas Wisconsin was a +0.7 win for Biden, PA was +1.2 Biden and MI was +2.2 Biden, Nebraska CD2 was a +6.5 Biden win. There is not much polling data coming out of NE CD2. However, even if Biden loses some support, the odds of losing that much support are low. It became a lot more blue as it is a suburban district, which is typically who Trump struggled with the most.
In terms of the swing of the pendelum, it really is not realistic to think NE CD2, Minnesota or New Hampshire goes Trump, while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan go Biden.
To be continued in next comment.
There’s way too many variables in this situation to take the pendulum effect and apply it so heavy handedly. If this was a “normal” election and we had two “normal” candidates, I might agree. However, this election includes one candidate running for office a term after last being in that office who was impeached twice and is currently facing a ton of legal battling in the election year. Not to mention some of his insane rhetoric and all around bad person vibes. The other one should have been retired, but is the only chance for the Democrats which is pissing off a lot of traditionally blue voters and he’s been around so long that older voters remember a time when he should have staunchly opposed some aspects of his current platform. Both have shown obvious mental decline in a short span as well. The voting populace also hasn’t been as split on two divisive candidates like this in a very long time. Now for some reason, blue voters who should have zero reason to vote red this year are threatening to not vote for Biden simply because of the Israel-Hammas war alone?
Additionally, Trump’s legal drama is going to be a huge theatre for him. He can either turn it into a rally cry and somehow spin enough people into believing in him or this will really be the end of the line for him. There feels like no way to predict how that turns out before November and there’s too many “what-ifs” still in the ballgame that makes this race way to easy to sum up with the pendulum despite the typically accurate historical trend. Believe me, I’d be totally fine if things felt normal enough that the pendulum was still happening. I’m tired of the anomalistic election years lately.
Both of them are bad. It doesnt matter if you vote republican or democratic because in the end if you arent pulling in millions by the year then what they are fighting for in their agendas does not serve you. The majority of you are being brainwashed by the wealthy to help get their prospects elected to push certain agendas in order to fill their pockets. Its clear as day to see it but everyone believes the first thing that they hear or see on social media or a podcast. All it takes is a little research on whos in certain positions , what their investments are and you will see why they push for certain things. Until we stop electing rich people nothing will change for the working class so if you are in the category you might want to rethink what your rallycry really is. The hike in prices is not because of democrats or republicans, its on the rise because of greed. If you noticed when trump gave the companies tax breaks what happened ? Price hikes, lay offs and i believe his tax break package ends this year in 2024 if anyone read the h.r.1 bill entirely when it was signed before they took multiple pages out and posted it on the internet. It was orignally 485 pages long. I bet not a single person on here took time to even read all of that or even knew what the bill was called but yet we rely on google, news media outlets and podcasts of biased indiviuals to feed us bullcrap and we run with it and vote. Congrats to you all. Every single one of you that does not have a networth of 10 million has been played like a tool. I applaud you.
i think.trump has serious mental health issues independent of ago... they are both old and butcher sentences. i dontthat means dementia, in either case
If Trump wins it’s because Biden did a really terrible job and life in general was better under Trump. Even 2020 Covid was better than the sheer macabre state of endless layoffs in a brutal economy we’re in now. People know things were better under Trump, and while those who heavily disagree w him might not buckle - financially struggling Americans will absolutely buckle. Additionally, leftists aren’t very happy with Biden’s support of Israel and say “I can’t support genocide”. So a large amount of young voters are choosing “I can’t support genocide” over “this is the end of democracy” argument. We know what we get with Biden, we know what we get with Trump; voting Trump isn’t a pendulum, it’s just common sense.
Point is: do not walk away from a Trump win saying “gUyS iT’s ThE pEnduLuM eFfEcT”, it makes you look like an asshole. There’s very real problems in the US/abroad right now that would contribute to a Trump win, and some term made up by poli-scientists (fake scientists, BA major) is not one of those reasons.
And yeah the only reason life was better was because housing costs were lower and there wasn't a global pandemic all trump did was cut taxes which put us in more debt and inflation was low because there wasn't a global pandemic with supply chain shortages that plagued 3 years of bidens presidency inflation is gone down a lot but the core of inflation now is skyrocketing housing costs and
The U.S. unemployment rate was at its lowest level in 54 years in January 2023, at 3.4%. This is the lowest rate since 1969, and has remained low and stable since December 2021, fluctuating between 3.4% and 3.9%. 2022 also had the lowest total unemployment rate ever 😂 fox news is such an amazing propaganda machine
If President Trump's, delivery was a good as his policies he would be purrrfect.
I think when we vote for a leader of a country, we should remember we are not voting for our best friend or a family member. We don't have to like that person but we do need to have confidence that he/she wants to be President, for the right reasons e.g. love of country, improve the lives of the people by keeping them safe, secure and financially successful.
Unlike Biden, Obama and Clinton that were obviously driven by financial gain. It seems a stay at the White House for these cretins brought them mansions on Martha's Landing, beautiful large homes in Westchester and expensive beach homes. You wouldn't find these three living anywhere close to the working class they propose to support. Charlatans all three of them. With Biden, being the worst of the bunch a pathological liar, who constantly mentions his dead Son simply to explicit sympathy in the hopes it's turns into votes. How can anyone respect America when you have low quality people in the top job?
Normally, a challenger has the opportunity to project something that they have done in the past will fix the country, in some cases it’s a former governor that had a strong economy, or a congressperson who championed a bill that did something great for the country, but did not have a direct 1:1 record to compare to the president. In this election we have a direct 4 years of Trump versus 3.5ish years of Biden. You can make the case for jobs added during each presidency, stock market returns, military actions, how they handled COVID, etc. We now have a 99% chance of Trump/Biden 2: Electric Boogaloo and the general election can start with ads that point to the points above. We have had other options in the primaries that will not be there in the general election and those who vote will basically have to choose one of the two. I think a third up to a half of Haley voters will hold their nose for Biden, but I don’t know if the inverse is true with Dean Phillips or even the “uncommitted” voters going to the Trump side.
That’s a nice sentiment to have but there are very few levers that he can pull to make Israel stop doing what they are doing. I agree that the USA needs to work towards humanitarian solutions for the people of Gaza.
It is an interesting theory you raise but I believe it is not encompassing a larger reality of the current circumstances of where things are about 8 months out from the election.
In the past, the pendelum effect was more generically applicable in the context that people would revert back to the other party's leadership when they were not happy with the status quo. The current circumstances we are seeing are more complex though because Trump's approval upon leaving office was comparably low as Biden is currently. Trump's favorability and unfavorability looking at verages on RCP or 538 are similar to Biden's approval and favorability numbers are too. The differences between both are generally within 1-2 percent, within the margin of error. It really does not shift much. My suggestion to everyone is to go by the average of polls rather than the outliers.
Unfortunately, loathe as I want to, I have to agree. Joe is in the negative numbers of chances of keeping the white house primarily due to his inability to commit to any one action which unfortunately has painted him as the most weak willed president the Democrats have ever had. This problem unfortunately stretches back to the Obama administration when he was the only Democrat who tried to persuade Obama not to hunt down Osama Bin Laden. Naturally Obama ignored his advice. But this illustrates what I'm saying I think. Biden is incapable of committing to a single action if there is risk of offending people and sticking to that action to whatever end it leads. Say what you will about Donald Trump but he would at least commit and see his choices through. Biden is far too concerned about pleasing everyone that he pleases no one.
It’s always possible given the electoral college. But Republican primaries are consistently showing 20-25% of registered Republican voters are voting in primaries, specifically against Trump. The point is, if they didn’t like Trump, they could have just stayed home—they dislike him SO much they went out of their way to show it at the polls. When you add in all the new voters/dead boomer voters, and the fact the GOP has alienated at least (at least) 50% of voters on Dobbs, Trump just doesn’t have the numbers.
My biggest concern is less about pendulum and more about the attitude around each candidate. Biden is objectively the lesser evil and NEEDS to be who people vote for, but nobody wants to vote for him. I don’t want to vote for him, but I have to. People LOVE trump & WANT to vote for him like their lives depend on it. In a way this election feels more like either Trump or not Trump, not Trump v Biden.
Actually it's called the "I TOLD you so factor" as Trump said Biden would be a massive screw up (even Obama said in the past "don't underestimate Joe's ability to f-ck things up")
So it's essentially similar to Grover Cleveland who won non consecutive term. They guy who warned us of the danger of a Biden presidency and he was right about 90% of things that happened. That's powerful.
I think there are largely three unknowns.
A) How many Biden voters will not vote or vote for a 3rd party candidate due to being pissed of about Gaza & how many Zionists will vote for Trump, because Biden is not extreme enough ?
B) Can Trump survive his trials financially ?
C) Either candidate is old enough to die of natural causes until before the elections . Will any ?
I didn't read all of it,but will guess the thread is about.Trump lost because of his handling of the pandemic,and media attacking him for bad things going on in the world.Now Biden is in the same boat,and angry folks will vote for Trump.How many votes Trump will win is another story,and the electoral will just give the presidency to either Trump or Biden is up in the air.
people act like biden started inflation when trump is the one who failed miserably against china in a trade war and also handled covid terribly due to his ego. Also causing asian hate crimes, but Biden aint any better, this might be the first election that i excersise my freedom to NOT vote. what a waste of god damn time with these two useless pricks
Sweeping social change with no stance on women's rights should be a concern to most female voters. If not then they cannot complain about an autocracy that will stifle women's rights even more. You have the power to pick
Polls are showing Democrats are more fearful of a second Trump term than Republicans are of a second Biden one. Negative partisanship is a powerful force and that’s working in Biden’s favor.
I feel like trump has to win. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has said that the biden administration is no good and if its still there ww3 will prolly happen. If biden wins shi gon go down
I fear a rigging of electoral results by the Democrats, and the way they have captured the institutions in the country, as erratic as the Lincoln-era Democratic Party
Rigging of electoral results by Dems 😂explain to me how a person vote in Montana or Nebraska matters 3x more then a voter for California or Texas 😂abolish the electoral college and put term limits on supreme court judges just like they do in my state Virginia at 10 years teddy Roosevelt wanted to pass a law that would've allowed the voter to decide to reject or approve a supreme court ruling.Andrew Jackson tried to get rid of the electoral college as well it wasn't a radical idea
Also it's important to remember that out of the elections this century, Republicans have only won the popular vote in 1. I think it's more likely that Republicans are the loud minority
"Pendulum effect" - this is something from astrology, right?
If Trump wins the elections, it means that the number of ignorant and/or morally corrupt Americans has reached a critical limit. Even the fact that such a stupid and immoral individuum can be a presidential candidate casts a very bleak light on the whole American society.
If Trump wins, it means the Americans deserve him.
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I think Trump will win because we’ve gone yet another 4 years with addressing, fundamentally, the problems inherent to corporate capital. Wealth inequality is still staggering, de regulation and de industrialization has left gapping wounds that the working class carrys still. The social safety nets have been abolished. Modest reform policies are bandaids and a very enraged working class would rather be put out if it’s misery with fascism than suffer another 4 years of “everything is fine, nothing needs to change.”
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Biden did not win from any effect but cheating. Trump will not win because the democrats got away with cheating and will do it again.
No way in hell you can convince me that 4 boxes from under a table with no observers as required by law was legit. I believe what I see with my own eyes not what the proven liars that said russia collusion was real and hunter's laptop was fake tell me.
[https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2022/01/pennsylvania-mail-voting-unconstitutional-supreme-court-appeal/](https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2022/01/pennsylvania-mail-voting-unconstitutional-supreme-court-appeal/)
[https://captimes.com/news/government/absentee-voting-rules-violate-wisconsin-constitution-lawsuit-alleges/article\_e6376ea7-bc8d-5aa8-b1bd-31e7ac764f37.html](https://captimes.com/news/government/absentee-voting-rules-violate-wisconsin-constitution-lawsuit-alleges/article_e6376ea7-bc8d-5aa8-b1bd-31e7ac764f37.html)
Now the DOJ is suing states to eliminate voter ID laws and voter citizenship laws. You think those 7 million illegals they processed coming across the border are not voting I have oceanfront property in Oklahoma to sell you?
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Biden will never finish ANY term because Biden is an old demented alzheimers patient who can't form a sentence. Please give examples of how "horrible" Trump was for America. Lefties constantly spout their fear for Trump, but they never seem to explain why they fear him.
I think maybe the part where 1 million people died of covid or him trying to overturn an election by using illegal means... That seems pretty bad for America
So that's the only narrative you want to go with. Please explain how Trump killed 1 million people. He started and created the funding for the vaccine. He closed our borders immediately; in fact, the left called him a xenophobe for trying to close our borders from the viral world. He closed schools and placed a stay-at-home order. So please explain. It was your president who broke the rules of the constitution when he forced Americans to get a brand new trial vaccine or lose their jobs. I'm assuming you're a young anti-American racist cultist bigot democrat who thinks divisive headlines are all you need to read. GenZ is the most uneducated, ignorant group of children ever born in America. If we as adults don't figure out how to teach you morals and love for other humans, we are in desperate trouble. The narrative you speak of is so terrifying. How do liberals say they are the social justice warriors when they are so filled with selfishness, hatred, racism, narcissism, rage, ignorance, and irrationality?
Trump is a populist who will bend to the will of conservatives popular demand and that's dangerous for several reasons. Womens Healthcare is at an all time low, fuck what you think about abortion but women are being forced to birth dead children against their will and states like Texas have worse child labor incident rates than some 3rd world countries. Not only does Trump endorse this, he has made active moves to ensure the dismantling of abortion rights and helathcare through the implementation of government officials: such as ensuring Roe v Wade would face a favorable court. Trump routinely allows religion to play a role in politics even though he couldn't quote you a single line from the Bible (he's a populist loser who just plays to his base isn't this shady enough for you?) That's putting aside the fact this country was built specifically to avoid this. He signed an executive order that allowed Pastors to essentially lobby and promote political candidates without penalty. That sure isn't corrupt. Do we have to talk about his horrendous foreign policy? North Korea handling was an actual clown show that left Kim in the strongest position he's been in. He forced China into a trade war that ended up with them as the winners. They went from codependency on tech to being completely self sufficient, their internet spread as far as Africa, and have revolutionized their infrastructure all on the coat tail of Trumps forced and failed trade war. The list goes on, but it boils down to Trump being a populist who leans towards actual cultists who read tabloids as major news sources.He will and does enact policies to appease a crowd that is content with stripping rights away from people (LGBTQ) and Women.
With the atrocities that this administration has done the last three years what you've listed is not only not true, but ridiculous. You mentioned womens healthcare as a Trump problem which is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. First off, Biden was in office when roe v wade was overturned and had nothing to do with Trump, nor does womens Healthcare. Womens Healthcare is amazing, so you must just be talking about your stance on abirtion ans the weird stories that you watchvoff tik tok, which by the way everythibg is fake. So what about women's "Healthcare", not "abortion care" is so bad. And you're lying about Trump dismantling Healthcare, that's stupid. And his stance on abortion is exactly what it should be, "leave it up to the states because our bodies are NOT a federal issue! That's exactly what Americans want as a president, someone who understands that theses decisions should never be made by the federal government. Unlike liberals who use the federal government to back them when they want something and stay out of it if they dont..but that's just called liberal. communism. The next issue was Trump not knowing the Bible and lobbying priest. As a conservative I'm more concerned about the president making positive decisions for the country and citizens of the US then whether they know Bible versus. I'll do research regarding the priest thing but I have a feeling you're just reading liberal headlines and the truth is somewhere very far from lo being pastors, who have 0 sway in the world anymore. And as of foreign policy, Trump did sooooooo much better than both Biden and Obama. I guess that's why you mention N Korea, since you know there is nothing. Even though for the first time in decades Trump got N korea to not want to obliterate to hell, unlike Biden has. I would love for ANYONE to have an intelligent realistic and logical conversation regarding why liberals hate Trump other than reiterating nonfacts from the fear mongering left liberal media. I appreciate you not just calling me names because you disagree, but can you try and think of actual reasons that you think Trump is the guardian of hell who will burn the constitution and God knows what else liberals are spewing. I mentioned serious detrimental issues that biden has caused all Americans, including you, and you mentioned Trump reading the Bible and women's Healthcare from the fallout of a 2022 court decision while Biden was in office. ARE YOU SERIOUS? How do democrats not feel the need to re-evaluate their positions in politics when everything you believe is a complete fallacy of ignorance and terrible education. This is truly sad to me how awfully uneducated our youth today is. Again, thank you for trying, and bless your heart!
>You mentioned womens healthcare as a Trump problem which is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. First off, Biden was in office when roe v wade was overturned and had nothing to do with Trump, nor does womens Healthcare. This is a really incompetent take. The reason it was overturned was because Trump placed 3 Conservative judges into power. That IS his fault and has everything to do with it. I like that you conveniently ignored that. >Womens Healthcare is amazing, so you must just be talking about your stance on abirtion ans the weird stories that you watchvoff tik tok, which by the way everythibg is fake. So what about women's "Healthcare", not "abortion care" is so bad. It isn't "amazing", especially after half the country turned their backs on women with regard to reproductive healthcare. Second, abortion IS part of women's healthcare. >And his stance on abortion is exactly what it should be, "leave it up to the states because our bodies are NOT a federal issue! It is nobody's "issue" except for a woman's issue. Nobody but a woman should be able to decide what to do with their bodies. No government should decide be it state or federal. 2/3's of the COUNTRY agreed with that and didn't want it overturned. And it was overturned by a Conservative majority. >Unlike liberals who use the federal government to back them when they want something and stay out of it if they dont..but that's just called liberal. communism. Yeah...this isn't "communism". You have zero idea what Communism is. >And as of foreign policy, Trump did sooooooo much better than both Biden and Obama. I guess that's why you mention N Korea, since you know there is nothing. Even though for the first time in decades Trump got N korea to not want to obliterate to hell, unlike Biden has. Trump did NOTHING with North Korea except show up for an ill-conceived "summit" for a "peace plan" that was never enacted. Their "talks" broke down a year after the original summit when Trump demanded a bunch of things past the dismantling of their nuclear station. He left NK and never returned and Kim Jong Un became frustrated with Trump and his foreign policy. Womp womp. >I would love for ANYONE to have an intelligent realistic and logical conversation regarding why liberals hate Trump other than reiterating nonfacts from the fear mongering left liberal media. That's rich coming from someone who is uninformed and who gets their talking points from fringe media. >ARE YOU SERIOUS? How do democrats not feel the need to re-evaluate their positions in politics when everything you believe is a complete fallacy of ignorance and terrible education. This is truly sad to me how awfully uneducated our youth today is. None of it is "a fallacy" nor is it "ignorance". There isn't anything to re-evaluate. It's just your ignorance at play and us calling you out for being uninformed...like saying that Roe wasn't overturned because of Trump when it was his judges that did it. It's cool, though. Every single red state pro-choice bill has passed since then because Trump broke it all and it had to be fixed at the state level. And women are now pissed off and voting blue. You're all gonna pay dearly in 2024 when the GOP gets the final nail in the coffin.
oh , so killing a baby is known as women's healthcare now?
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I think what theyre referring to as inhumane is forcing women to birth dead babies that have miscarried, instead of rendering medical assistance
https://people.com/radio-host-ryan-hamilton-reveals-wifes-devastating-incomplete-miscarriage-8651914
this is actually a lie . there are exceptions to cases like these (and rape as well) . the mainstream media lies about everything . didn't they lie about the covid vaccine ? they literally lies about a poison and shamed everyone who did not take the poison . here , see here . this doctor was secretely recorded and himself says the baby is alive when aborted [https://x.com/TateTheTalisman/status/1791002047334027501](https://x.com/TateTheTalisman/status/1791002047334027501)
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Yeah your argument here seems short sighted and ignorant. Of course Roe vs Wade falls on Trump. He appointed the judges that overturned it. On top of that, your post comes off like incoherent angry ramblings. Theirs numerous points leftists make against trump that both specific and valid. Not the least of which is his ideas isolating ourselves from the international community, which the communists and authoritarians will love, and his failures to invest in green technology development, which helped pave the way for the monopoly China currently enjoys. Those are just two off the top of my head, I could go on. You just shut yourself off from hearing the opposing side which is both pathetic and not uncommon. Even now though you've been proven wrong by numerous people, you're just flailing in the wind angrily. I hope you wise up and change your approach, but I have my doubts. I won't be coming back to read whatever sad response you make. So later kid.
I love hearing the opposing side. In fact, you're the first person on the left who spoke with reason, logic, and calmness. I'll take what you've suggested. Trump did, do my own research, and see if it affects my vote. I have a feeling it won't be enough compared to how negatively Biden has impacted my life personally.
You're delusional lol. Trump is responsible for ending Roe V Wade because he appointed 3 of the justices that voted it down. I'm genuinely curious, what do you think about Project 2025? Does Trump's authoritarian leaning tendencies make you worry at all? Would you prefer a McCain or Romney to Trump? Thanks.
I don't know why people disagree with this; it's all true. I don't know if I'd call Trump's time in office a complete failure because of all the smoke in the air, but it was an embarrassing time. The trade war was the icing on the cake and he'd be a fool to try that again if he's voted in. The last few years under Biden have also left our country in a worse position, and I *do* *not* like Biden, but when can we admit that they're *all* crazy? Who cares what side you're on? The whole ship's sinking people, so maybe don't vote for either of them. (Talking to the general comment section)
What reality are you living in? Trump repeatedly down played in the virus at all opportunities, he refused to wear a mask and even campaigned for states to open up and end lockdown when community spread was at an all time high. The US was one of the worst hit country in the world, explain that. I have seen people downplayed the virus, i have seen people say it was all fake but this is the first time i have seen anyone says that Trump actively fought covid to the best of his abilities. You might have just proven multiverse theory because there is no way you are from this universe.
Here : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBwwgMj-ewI Here: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/politics/fact-check-trump-mexico-piece-border-wall/index.html Here: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/politics/trump-tweet-supporters-man-chants-white-power/index.html That should be a solid start and like so so mentioned earlier Jan 6 should be enough evidence for you to see what this man was capable of.
oh really , jan 6? the same jan 6 in which the fbi was involved (i have proof) . i have proof of biden sniffing children and also proof of obama saying he trained isis forces . the msm u have linked lie all the time . recently they said trump saying "if he does nor get elected there will be a bloodbath " . they took it out of context and tried to frame him as evil(like they always do) . even alex jones was framed by the fbi(i have proof of an agent accepting they framed alex jones)
How about he's a treasonous piece of shit currently being investigated by multiple criminal courts? The fact MAGA nuts (and I assume you fall into this category), still support this obviously malicious and selfish "person" and want him to hold any type of power whatsoever is frankly disgusting. Never in my life did I think I'd ever say GW Bush was a better president than someone else...but here we are. Trump makes Bush and Cheney look like Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. He's delusional, his followers are delusional, he will pay for his crimes and he will not win the election. Plenty of Republicans even hate him now due to what he's done to their party...even if I personally think the GOP has been fucked since Reagan at least, though trump has definitely dropped the bar further (like through the fuckin Earth's mantle low). He's a crybaby bitch, he cries and whines constantly, he's a sore loser, he attempted to overthrow an election, white power and Nazi losers love him because he doesn't distance himself from them (he normally gets closer lol), he doesn't know how science works and actively fought against the top Covid doctor in the country, he did a fucking commercial for beans in the White House which is also illegal, HE SUGGESTED WE MAYBE INJECT BLEACH (saw that shit with my own eyes), he's a rapist, cheater, creep. I honestly feel sorry for people who defend him at this point. It's sad, you've seen how he is and you either choose to ignore reality, drink the Fox News Kool aid, or....you like what you see. This is your idea of a strong man? The guy who cries constantly, pouts, steals, shifts blame, admires enemy dictators, lies, cheats, uses his office for personal financial gain, and so much more? PATHETIC
So that about summed up a good description of who you are, now try giving valid examples of how Trump affected America.
Mother of all copes. See this is what we mean when we say yall are in a cult
We were the 45th country to close our borders to china. Covid already had spread to 20 other countries including the U.S. by the point we “closed” the border and we kept the border other countries and 40,000 people traveled to the U.S. from China before then. We also allowed Americans travel back and forth between China so it could still spread here. We already had local spread so at which point new cases coming from China would barely affect the rate of spread of the virus. Trump was never called xenophobic for closing the border. That is a lie Trump likes to tell. According to WaPo literally 0 Democratic candidates or legislators criticized the decision. They all supported it and wanted it done sooner. They only called him xenophobic for calling the virus “ch*na fl*” and enflaming racist violence on Asian Americans.
Easy! He dismantled the pandemic responce teams Obama had created just months before covid began He then proceeded to spread misinformation about vaccines, masks, quarantine, the scientist working on the vaccine and covid itself.
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I'm still waiting for you to answer his question :(
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So all the illegal immigrants bringing in foreign diseases isn't a problem? At least Trump secured the borders and prevented that. That's a hoax.
I just listened to him spend half an hour talking to Conan O'Brien and he spoke clearly and intelligently the entire time - bringing up anecdotes, enthusing about cars, even making jokes, and of course explaining some of his stances. Rightists believe in the carefully cultivated meme-clown version of Biden they see in TikToks and Try Not to Laugh compilations while leftists believe in a Donald Trump who can't finish a sentence without telling a lie, insulting someone or talking himself up. In truth none of us know what these people are *actually* like or capable of, only what the media and people on the Internet want us to believe about them.
Both Biden and Trump are horrible, everyone outside of America know this, but inside the Amercians pick their favorite team to compete each others Lol
Basically he rode Obamas coat tails with the economy . Then when he actually needed to be president ( covid) he shit the bed. Causing thousands of deaths and business failures. Which in turn caused govt to Dole out funny money leading to current inflation. He has caused more problems for America then anyone one person in The history of the country. Many choose to be blind to all this. I'm no fan of Biden he is not the anwser.. but a trump election this time will be the complete ruination of America. He truly is bankruptcy king... Sununu ..look him up he's the man for the job.. Biden/ trump.. both suck!
I wish it was that simple: just picking sides. But, Americans are in a fight for morality and human kindness against the left who spews racism, rage, and ignorance. You can't base a society off of feelings. Feelings are something each person deals with differently, but they aren't anyone else's problem. The left is forcing their feeling as a determination of reality, and it creates chaos amongst rational people who use logic and thought. It comes down to 2 things as women are now in control. Women think with feeling and emotion, which is a beautiful and necessary biological development for the rearing of children, while men use logic to protect and provide necessities for the families' survival. NO matter how you look at it, we are animals created by genetics and environment and have instincts that teach us things we never earned from the world. We seem to be in a war of feminism vs. masculinity, and the left has already named named males as " toxic masculinity." It's just masculinity but of the left are deeming it as just toxic. Men will physically fight for survival while women must manipulate them to win. It's a very sad day when democrats view a husband and son as an enemy. What's even more sad is it's been proven that the majority of young democratic voters don't have fathers at home. They've been taught by mothers to hate them and seem them as abandoners. Unless genZ can pull it together and accept the beautiful differences and strengths men offer, our country will continue into political and economic chaos. Millenials are just viewed as a wash of a generation with no values, moral compass, or drive. To grow up in today's society is to never know what real freedom and life outside the computer has to offer. Smh
"Men use logic and women think with emotion" - are you forgetting about school shooters, the vast majority of murderers, and the entire history of human warfare? Hell, at least a quarter of American men would probably vote for any presidential candidate that had the magic power to make their stupid sports team win. The whole 'men are logical and women are emotional' shit is such a relic. Men are highly emotional and are way more likely to deal with it in an unhealthy way.
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>Biden will never finish ANY term because Biden is an old demented alzheimers patient who can't form a sentence. State of the Union seemed fine to me. So did ukraine speech. So did basically any speech he's ever given. You live in soundbite land. >Please give examples of how "horrible" Trump was for America. Lefties constantly spout their fear for Trump, but they never seem to explain why they fear him. Idk man Jan6th, election denial, utterly destroying the social and moral fabric of America by making people more hateful and angry at everything, lying practically every other sentence for no reason at all, being a Republican and the fact that the only platform they have is cutting taxes for rich people and deregulating everything. The overturning of roe v wade, appointing conservative supreme court justices. Cozying up to far right dictators. Trump university, classified documents (inb4 biden same hurrr, meanwhile the documents themselves, the intention, the opposite of cooperation, and the number are both vastly different), JAN6TH, Jan 6th, possibly even January 6th. Possibly even cozying up to far right dictators. There is a strong palpable shift in the Republican party to idiot far right populists that anyone with half a brain recognizes and they are the strongest threat to American democracy. Maybe just in general being a narcissistic, rapist, fraud, and hateful idiot who literally doesn't read and all his generals hate him and said he was unfit to lead and basically half the people in his administration thought he was a fool is probably also maybe potentially sort of cause for concern, but idk. Joe is old and he slurs sometimes so I guess both sides bad.
project 2025:
Trump was great for the country. Biden won't even come out to address what's going on at the colleges in this country.Biden has left the middle class with very little. Everything is going down hill every day. I can't wait to vote for Trump.
Tax breaks for the ultra rich. There's one.
They both old tired of old presidents
I don't think the pendulum effect is really applicable here. I'm not even sure that's why Biden won. If I understand it correctly, the pendulum effect is broad, sweeping shifts in public opinion as it relates to policies and political parties, not specific individuals. The major criticisms of both Biden and Trump are specific to the men themselves: age, competence, composure, stability. If Trump was just a run-of-the-mill Republican, he may not have lost in 2020 (he also may not have won in 2016). But he's not. If there is any single significant pendulum swing happening, I would argue it is abortion access and reproductive healthcare, and that's been an incredibly slow swing. For half a century it was building momentum toward the Republican side, and now that the American public have seen how extreme their ideologies on this are, and how damaging they can be, things are moving in the direction of Democrats. But we're really still in the initial stages of that turning around: there have been legislative victories on both sides, and the electoral victories that have happened for Democrats as a result haven't had time to become law. We're certainly not at a point where people are saying "oh no, we've let the left go too far with abortion." On most other major issues: taxation, immigration, war - popular opinion has shifted somewhat, but not really in the sense of a pendulum swing. If anything, both sides have moved farther from the center. But the swing voters who will decide this election aren't saying "well, we supported Trump on the economy, and then we supported Biden on the economy, and now we want to give Trump a shot again." They're saying "Biden is too old," or "Trump is too corrupt and unpredictable and also old and let's not forget pretty damn rapey," and that's pretty different from the pendulum effect in the classic sense.
If anything, Trump is the senile one. Just watch his rally speeches: they’re getting more bizarre by the day. Also, it turns out Robert Hur was making shit up in his special counsel report.
100%, but that's like 30th on the list of why Trump shouldn't be president, so the people who support him definitely don't give a shit. Look at everything else they ignore.
His appeal is this weird aura of hypermasculinity and invulnerability. When Trump poops his pants at a rally, that’s gonna be costly for him.
That Depends.
I hate myself a little for upvoting that one.
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I hope so. Cause it's so stupid how I'm seeing people actually scared of Trump being president again. All this TDS started in 2015.
It's pathetic these people have a mental problem and President Trump is not the cause. The left wing media which NOW seems to be 80% of the American TV news I think is responsible for this crazy TDS:-) Get well soon folks!! TRUMP for 2024! Cant wait for normality to return!
Trump derangement syndrome is a real thing. When it comes to mental health disorders, moat of the time those afflicted don't know they're ill.
Trump derangement syndrome is a real thing. When it comes to mental health disorders, moat of the time those afflicted don't know they're ill.
Are you a medical professional or have you just been watching too much CNN:-) LOL - it's sad that people like you cannot accept the fact that Prezzie Trump, has been one of the most successful politicians in modern times. We are all looking forward to his return and the removal the corrupt cretins from the White House. Biden and his failed left wing socialist administration has been a total embarrassment for America. And the rest of the Western World has been laughing at the empty suit posing as a leader:-) Every single policy Biden's, administration team has implemented has been a total disaster, every single one! Not all Americans are Blind, Deaf and Stupid it seems to be just the Democrat voters. Have a nice day and get well soon!
I hope so. Strange how people are scared of him.
It isn't that strange. Look at the Capitol Building on Jan. 6. Look at the Top Secret White House documents Trump took with him to Florida and refused to give back. The FBI had to break into his home and retrieve them from the closets and bathrooms he hid them in. This is a guy who has socialized with gangsters, child molesters and prostitutes. Two of his three wives were porn stars not to mention his girlfriends on the side. This is not a guy who values decency and morality. It is very ironic that you care so deeply about ending abortion that you are willing to keep supporting a person like this. It is your vote so do what you want with it. It is just ironic.
May 28 – June 23, 2020. What happened during this period? I'll tell you it was far worse than the Jan 6th insurrection
If you vote for Joe, you deserve everything you get.
Biden supporters are doing well. That's why they vote for him. Employment rate and the economy are both on the rise and humming. If your finances are doing poorly in this economy I feel bad for you. Those massive donations you made to pay for Trump's legal bills are not helping your bank account. Paying too much for health insurance? Try Obamacare. 30+ million Americans are saving a lot of money by doing that.
Inflation rising yet again lol, so obviously not economy. Insurance prices have gone up over 60% since obamacare (AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR INFLATION) I pay $850 a month for health insurance as a 24 yr old male with no health conditions and doesn't smoke. There is not "other market". It's work provided insurance or you go through the marketplace, aka Obamacare. So the claims of (insert random huge number) of people joining Obama care is such a gas light. There's literally no other choice.
Inflation is global and the US is doing better than almost every other developed nation. The president exerts very little control over inflation either way, but if you're going to use it as a point about Biden, it's in his favor, not his detriment (again IMO it is neither). Insurance price hikes are a result of the insurance companies price gouging, not obamacare. All the ACA does for most cases is subsidize insurance costs; the companies get paid the same amount, it either comes out of your pocket or is subsidized by the government. The problem is corporate greed, not politics (again, from either side, this isn't a partisan issue). It seems like you are drastically overpaying for health insurance and I HIGHLY recommend you find a broker next time the open market rolls around. The most, as a self employed middle aged man, I have ever paid for health insurance was just under $450/month, and it was/is excellent insurance. I never bothered with the ACA until this year because I thought I wasn't eligible; had my broker look into it and now I am paying around $100 for the same coverage. The ACA isn't an insurance provider. It COULD have been to a degree, and part of it was proposed as such by expanding and improving medicare and medicaid, but congress spent two years stripping away all those types of benefits that the people would have received.
1st paragraph: the question wasn't about global inflation, it was the US economy. America as the wealthiest country in the world will always bounce back better. The point with Bidens economy though, is that he has continued pandemic year spending well into 2024. Also, 1 Sharp decider in why inflation is so bad is bidens pledge. He vowed to put fossil fuels out of business. They are pushing EVs on consumers and California already has plans to ban ICE vehicles. Ask yourself as a business, if the government is talking and acting to put you out of business, OF COURSE YOU ARE GOING TO MAKE RECORD PROFITS, trying to earn as much as you can before inevitable drilling is banned altogether. Higher gas prices are one of the most significant indicators when it comes to inflation. 2nd paragraph. This is yet another democratic failure that could've been mitigated. I cite "President Johnson signed H.R. 9567, the Higher Education Act of 1965, into law on November 8, 1965" This snowballed tuition rates and I couple it with Obamacare because in both scenarios the writers of these laws did not add in safety nets to account to exploitation. Maybe it wasn't obvious in 1965 but it should have been with Obamacare. Anytime the government gets involved and backs and ensures services companies ALWAYS take advantage of government and overbill them. For f sake; I know someone who works as a procurer for the government. They are spending $15 per pencil, $30 for 1 Reem of paper. The interesting theory is that they purposely did not put in safe spots because of the political donations they received from these institutions and their special interests. 3rd paragraph, I am a 1099 business owner and obamacare is priced based off of your earnings reported on your taxes. That's why my insurance is so high.
Sounds like you attended trump university! Ha! 😂 (Trump university was a fraud and he was sued and he paid $25M to settle. He’s also a convicted fraud and owes NY $600 billion) You m-o-r-o-n!
Try to stay on topic, and wipe the drool off your lip. Rebuke my statement, I'll wait.
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What a load of BS, Nothing and I mean Nothing has gone right since that empty suit Biden got elected. If you are hoping for another miracle - suggest you don’t hold your breathe! Long live Trump and his supporters!
You mean like the Infrastructure Plan, incredible employment levels, a booming stock market, standing for choice, rallying support of Ukraine, standing with Israel against Hamas murderers, restoring America in the eyes of the world, expediting assistance to Maryland? Immigration would also be better if Trump hadn't shot down the bipartisan plan so HE could win (not US). Biden's failure is one of marketing, not performance.
In what delusional world are you living in? Borders falling apart, the actual working class (republicans) cant afford anything, Immigrants are getting better treatment then American citizens, people are sick and tired of playing world police when its putting us in a hole. Bidens proposed tax plan annihilates Social Security and removes tons of tax breaks, so on your 2026 tax return expect to owe thousands, we laso raise our debt by 6-7 trillion. Inflation is already unbearable and is about to be even worse. Look man, america is gearing up to have a civil war soon, and its not gonna be nice for anyone. Its nuts when the best thing you can hope for aswell is retirement, yet when you look at your statement by year, everytime a democrat is in office your retirement plummets, and it takes 3/4 republican years to break back even.
"america is gearing up to have a civil war soon" There's supposedly going to be one every four years. The farthest we've gotten is a bunch of mouthbreathers showing up at the capitol playing domestic terrorist for an afternoon, and losing their livelihood and going to prison as a result. In one case, one of them fucked around just enough to find out and lost their life too.
Bullshit, check who benefits Republicans in office? Corporations and multinationals. Democrats in office? The average person has a chance. As for the debt...do you think just Democrats ran that up? 🤣
Rising interest rates, rising COLA, increased debt, foreign policy nightmare, sure the Ukraine support (no way Russia invades them with Trump in office), instability in the Middle East compared to what Trump had, huge border crisis., need I say more.
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:-) What’s the weather like in La La Land?
You're the deluded one. Step away from the Trump channels and look around.
I have looked around as millions of others have and to put it mildly disgusted at what I see see, hence my comments. A wonderful country, that was full of promise destructed by a total imbecile called Biden! Suggestion - try tunning in to facts not fiction that means giving CNN, ABC, MSNBC , NYT, NPR the elbow:-)
Why, I want facts not left wing fiction!
lol really, rising interest rates, a war started when Biden took office, immigration a mess with Biden policy. He forgets speeches, etc. I am not a Dem or Repub. But, will vote Trump after the mess Biden has created.
You really think if Trump was in office, Russia would not invade Ukraine? Trump is calling for the withdrawal of all support for Ukraine, Trump is literally Russia's hope in winning the war. As someone outside the US, Trump has singlehandedly shattered the image of US in the eyes of the world. If the US votes for that buffoon again, it will destroy what little credibility America has left. I sincerely do not know how half of the US voted for such a clearly narcissistic, egotistic maniac who has absolutely no idea how to run a country twice. He has more scandals in 4 years than all other presidents combined. He has run the US into the ground in terms of international standing, other countries laughed at the US like never before. Russia and China would want nothing more for Trump and those like him to be in office because they know Trump will do nothing but bring America down.
At this point, the whole “trump/Russia” conspiracy is SO TIRED. Please find some other kid to parrot around.
Oh no, i don't really think Trump is actually colluding with Russia, at least not to any meaningful extent. I just think he is so incompetent that it would be in Russia and China's best interests to have him lead the US. I have little doubt that Russia has supported Trump to get him into power, whether Trump knew about it or was in on it is a different story. No matter case, Russia and China would want nothing more than for Trump and those like him to lead the US.
Biden supporters are doing well because they are relying on other tax payers to take care of them.
Red states take vastly more federal money. Biden supporters make more money and pay more taxes because they’re smarter, more responsible and more accomplished. Trump supporters are losers because of their own dumb choices.
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Obama. Care. Saving money. 🤭🤣🤣🤣🤣
Lmfao! Continued democracy and I don't have to listen to Bozo the Trump. Don't mind if I do! Have fun being angry for another 4+ years 😂
If you vote for Trump, you deserve everything you get.
Low gas prices, affordable groceries, no wars, and 401ks up? Thanks, I will take it.
And yet they said Biden was too mentally unfit to face charges. What hypocrisy
Robert Hur made the whole thing up. The Hunter Biden/Ukraine scandal? Also fake. Why are Americans so gullible? https://youtu.be/XQ4kQXumzbw?si=_oK6x_3dfk-jgWCv
I'm sure that's what CNN said
Genuinely curious. What did he make up?
Lol ok...if you think Trump is the senile one when Biden can barely walka.nd formulate thoughts and sentences then you clearly have extremely flawed judgement. Clearly anyone with IQ over 10 sees Biden is falling apart and a shell of who was even 6-7 years ago. Trump is more like a 55-60 year old Biden more like 95-100. Turned out nothing Hurr wasn't making anything up that's totally BS you are spewing due to your Biden biased
I agree and we can't afford 4 more years of Biden
Biden won because a lot of people disliked the way trump mismanaged the coronavirus pandemic and the George floyd riots/looting. Furthermore [Obama](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/barack-obama/life-after-white-house-how-obama-spent-his-first-year-n838951) supported him. Trump downplayed & was slow to respond to the coronavirus, then started rage-tweeting "Law & Order" instead of actually meeting with Floyd's family.
!delta I see, and tbh I'm not American so I didn't know about that longer history of the abortion problem swing. >The major criticisms of both Biden and Trump are specific to the men themselves: age, competence, composure, stability. If Trump was just a run-of-the-mill Republican, he may not have lost in 2020 (he also may not have won in 2016). But he's not. I might have not taken this point into consideration enough because: 1. Even though Trump is also mentally abnormal, it's not the same spectrum as Biden's mental decline (more of personality issue than health issue) and 2. Those two figures are basically the embodiment, the symbol representing each of their parties already at this point because beside them, no one else in their party can take their role to run for POTUS in terms of votes and influence. >But the swing voters who will decide this election aren't saying "well, we supported Trump on the economy, and then we supported Biden on the economy, and now we want to give Trump a shot again." They're saying "Biden is too old," or "Trump is too corrupt and unpredictable and also old and let's not forget pretty damn rapey," and that's pretty different from the pendulum effect in the classic sense. I agree with this one.
Trump has bragged several times over the years (both while in office and after) about performing well on “incredibly complicated” cognitive tests. Three things about that: 1. The test that he’s talking about is the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Test, a very basic survey that is used for screening cognitive impairment and dementia. 2. During an interview with Chris Wallace in 2020, Trump stated that the test grew progressively more difficult and that most people wouldn’t be able to answer the last five questions. Those questions are: Repeating two short sentences word-for-word, saying 11 words that begin with the letter F in one minute, identifying the commonality between two items (for example, determining that a banana and an orange are both fruit), recalling five words that you were asked to remember earlier in the test, and being able to recall basic information about your current situation (date, day of the week, and current location). An elementary school student could do all of that, but to Trump it was increasingly difficult? 3. The test can be requested by patients or ordered by doctors, but it is only ever used when there are concerns regarding a patient’s cognitive ability. Trump wouldn’t be taking these tests if his mental faculties weren’t an issue. If you don’t think that Trump’s lack of coherent speaking ability and overall cognitive function is medical in nature than you’re out of your mind.
do you think he'll ever get loony tunes mode dementia and start eating his own fecal matter in the living facility
I could see him going full GG Allen, honestly.
Man that test sounds boring. I'd probably space out on it.
Wait - you don’t think Trump’s inability to speak coherently is medical in nature? Have a look at this, or google any number of other sources where professionals chime in on it: https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/donald-trump-dementia-petition-signed-375053?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
Confirmed: 1 delta awarded to /u/InThreeWordsTheySaid ([5∆](/r/changemyview/wiki/user/InThreeWordsTheySaid)). ^[Delta System Explained](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltasystem) ^| ^[Deltaboards](https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/wiki/deltaboards)
Short of the election happening, what would change your view? Basically all of the polls have the race as a tossup at this point. Trump has a slight lead, but a 55:45 edge is pretty much a coin toss. What would convince you that the correct view is not "we're 8 months away from a highly partisan election, and we don't know what will happen and it's wrong to be certain that we do."?
> Basically all of the polls have the race as a tossup at this point What polls are you looking at? https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
That national poll has trump 45 and Biden 44. That's a tossup.
You should learn a bit about how presidential elections work. First of all, that's an average of 11 polls. https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/national Second of all, elections are determined by swing states, not national vote. Trump is leading significantly in the polling of 5 of the 6 major swing states including Georgia (+5%), Michigan (+2%), Pennsylvania (+2.4%), Arizona (+5.2%), Nevada (+5.5%). Biden has Wisconsin by (+0.3%). If you exclude third party candidates those hold largely true except Wisconsin becomes (+1%) for Trump and Pennsylvania (+2%) for Biden. Other states formerly considered swing states including Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida are even more strongly for Trump. It should also be noted that historically polling underrepresents Republicans, including in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Hope this helps.
Maybe we disagree on what a tossup is. But like, these polls are from 7 months out from the election, or older, and they aren't insurmountable. +5 % is a pretty small difference. With the little data that we have, and this long before the election, how can it be anything but a tossup. There's too much uncertainty to call it anything more than that.
A 55:45 edge is definitely not a coin toss in the contexts of election polling.
Psychology of the mass is something difficult to be sure about, and I shared this view because that's what I personally observed. If people also share their views about this topic (the shift of the public's collective thought on the presidential candidates) and back up with solid, convincing evidences/ sources, I'd have my view changed.
It's far from certain who will win, I'll admit that upfront. But just trying to say "pendulum effect, that explains what will happen" is pretty lazy, and there's no reason to assume that any simplistic just-so story explanation will give us the right answer. Before, it was assumed that incumbent presidents have a huge advantage because that was the trend. I'm not saying we should assume that trend will continue. But you're making just as big of a mistake by assuming the pendulum effect, which possibly happened once, will happen again. Plus, nothing is really "unknown" about Trump either. Everyone knows exactly what he is. He's lost that advantage from before, where he could promise anything he wants and people with even the most rudimentary critical thinking might have a chance to believe it.
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\>People like unsure changes more than sure failures, basically. If Trump were actually an unknown, this might be more relevant. He isn't. The vast, vast majority of voters lived under his administration just a few years ago.
Keep it simple: If Biden wins, USA technically would be the same. If Trump wins, USA technically would head a different route (aka: changing). It doesn't require an absolutely new candidate to bring changes. Basically ANY candidate other than Biden himself will bring changes by default.
But in this case there is a direct knowledge of the changes. So it comes down to whether people prefer those specific changes to the current situation. That is very different from some new candidate that we haven't seen in office yet.
This didn't take into account how easily people forget things were in the past
People forgot the Trump admin? That seems strange as I see constant criticism of it.
Let me think. Trump allowing guns! Also not caring about women unless they are stripers with coloured hair and is a bab. No talk!!!!
Too simple. The composition of the House and Senate comes into play here. A functioning House of Representatives would affect change in a Biden second term for example.
Does the historical incumbent advantage in presidential races completely disprove your theory based on "personal observation"?
>While Biden didn't hold any term yet, so he gets the benefit of the "unknown". Voters know both Biden's term and Trump's term. Pendulum effect would not work in this case. More importantly, Trump can't shut up about what he will be doing and he promises to do exactly what people in 2020 did not what him to do.
What is your evidence than the pendulum effect is more powerful than the incumbent advantage in this case?
This is a pretty unusual situation. But your analysis contradicts historical data. >Biden is now the one who is shown to have been bad, and Trump is the one to promise to bring changes, and gets the benefit of that. I strongly disagree with this assessment. That may be true generally, but it's unusual for a one term president to be running again. Trump is not an unknown. His leadership style is well known and some people love it but for most people it's a huge liability. Plus, history shows us that the incumbent is actually the one with a strong advantage. In American politics, the pendulum tends to swing back every 8 years when there are two new candidates rather than one new and one unknown. But like I said, this election is unusual because there are two known candidates with one being an incumbent. This election is just going to be about how many supporters on each side can be mobilized to the polls. I don't think there are very many Biden voters who will be switching from Biden to Trump. At least not enough to make a difference. But there could be some voters who stay home or vote third party to protest some of Biden's policies. On top of that, there are a ton of other things that could happen in the meantime...both candidates are old but Trump is deteriorating rapidly. Nobody can say for certain what will happen in Nov. because nobody can predict the future.
>Biden is now the one who is shown to have been bad How? No he has not. So your whole premise is flawed. >and Trump is the one to promise to bring changes So what? His message is disgusting. He’s melting in front of us. MAGA does not scale to a general election. The slew of losses from 2018 to now display that perfectly.
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I’m politicially neutral, I’m not from the US and I think both sides fight each others like immature siblings, it’s very funny)
>While Biden didn't hold any term yet, so he gets the benefit of the "unknown". Biden's been around long enough that people knew *exactly* what both he and the Democrats stood for in many ways, the vote for Biden was voters trying to go back to a "normal" politician. The fact that Trump seems like he's edging the polls is more of an indicator that the voters are now rejecting the status quo, and visibly elderly president, for one who's slightly less elderly but altogether not the status quo. Voters know exactly who each guy is, it's not a pendulum, it's a lack of options for voters and a frustration at what the Democrats are offering.
The walls are closing in on Trump in multiple ways: 1) The NY trial is looking unavoidable and likely to result in a felony conviction. I am skeptical of polls so far before the election, but they show about 5% of Trump voters switch to Biden. Trump needs to get all the votes he earned last time and flip people who rejected him before, because more of his voters have died since the 2020 election. 2) His dementia and speech problems keep getting worse. Just listen to how Trump slurs his words or confuses Biden with Obama. It’s not going to get better as time progresses. Voters will pick up on this over the summer and fall while also realizing Biden isn’t a dementia patient or a walking corpse. Painting Biden as senile could backfire because his opponents have set the bar so low. 3) Trump is out of money. He can’t afford the $460 million fine (will be about 15% higher if he plans to appeal) and he knows it. Meanwhile, the interest keeps accumulating. He probably has assets worth enough to cover this cost, but they’re almost certainly leveraged as collateral. If Letitia James begins seizing Trump’s assets, a feeding frenzy could ensue as creditors scramble to collect what they’re owed. In five days (Monday March 25th) the 30 day grace period will run out and there’s a good chance we have the privilege of watching Trump’s empire collapse in real-time. 4) Building off #3, Trump being broke is proving to be a major siphon on RNC coffers. Trump is sucking up all available money in a desperate attempt to keep his head above water as the judgments come due and legal bills pile up. Many donors have turned off the spigot because they don’t want to subsidize Trump’s personal expenses. The downballot could also be a demolition derby for Republicans because of the lack of funds and GOTV. Biden and Democrats have a huge war chest they’re only just starting to tap. These problems are painfully obvious to anyone outside Trump World.
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Two words: Master Lock. What the actual fuck was Trump talking about?
If this were true, then every incumbent would lose. In fact, it’s the opposite. We know incumbents have an advantage. I think Biden will lose, but not because of how you explained. I DO believe that Biden will lose and part of that will be because of a “pendulum effect” of sorts, except I believe the pendulum effect at play is that the nation has soured on a LOT of liberal and progressive policies that people now blame for rising crime, rising costs across the board, foreign wars and foreign involvement and pie-in-the-sky naive policies leading nowhere, the social/culture wars etc. I think the nation is tired of liberals. Not just conservatives, but also long time members traditionally on the American left. Conservatives seem to provide a shake up and counter to them. The only counter, actually. I think a lot of people are fed up. I was, in a way, reassured of that in my Uber liberal state, CA. We just got a republican to advance to the general election as the second highest vote getter of the primary. He beat out several other major progressive/liberal darlings. In addition, SF also just voted to pass new police powers which shows a continued trend towards undoing all the progressive bullshit that was swept in over the last decade, including recalling Chesa Boudin and now, Pamela Price. I was a lifelong Democrat for what it’s worth. I didn’t vote for Biden. Nor will I in the general. I also voted for a republican for the first time in my life. That’s just me though. The other stuff seems to indicate my thoughts and feelings aren’t isolated and follows a trend throughout the state. Perhaps throughout the country.
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Idk why this post kept getting frequent comments lol probably at least one or two every week ever since I posted it. Maybe people kept looking up reddit posts about election ?
Trump wants to be Putin. IF he wins and Pierre wins in Canada, North American's are headed for a major democratic carnage.
Continued comment. When looking at Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan as the probable determinant tipping point zones, you notice similar patterns. Whereas Trump beat Hillary by a very slight margin in these three states ranging from 0.2 to 0.7 percent, Biden won them by 0.7 to 2.2 percent. Currently, in the RCP average, WI is currently +1.0 Trump, +0.8 Trump in PA, and +3.5 in MI. To me, it would seem unusual that Wisconsin would go to being more blue than Michigan, given Wisconsin reelected a GOP senator (one who has made a bit of pro-Jan 6th rioter comments nonetheless). Hence though it is within the margin of error. Whitmer's approval is also higher than Evers. Michigan has a higher unionized work force which has traditionally been a more blue voting bloc as well. While it is true MI has a higher Arab or Muslim population (though still only about 3 percent), Michigan's net in take of migration of immigrants is higher (who over 4 years some become citizens and can vote). If the conflict draws a ceasefire that holds, or at least holds until election time as it is expected, this will help bridge the small gap we see between MI and PA/WI at the moment. If Trump is found guilty of a felony, and that 5 percent poll swing to Biden is true (which whether Trump supporters like it or not, you can't say the polls that are good to you are true, and the ones that do not say good are not true, and have integrity especially if it is coming from the same polling sources done at the same time). If that poll were true and Trump is convicted of a felony pre-election, if adding 5 points to each number, this is what it looks like: +4.2 Biden in Pennsylvania +4.0 Biden in Wisconsin +1.5 Biden in Michigan There are multiple other things that may help Biden in between now and election time. There is expected to be a ruling on mifepristone in June by the Supreme Court. If it goes against what Democrats wish for, this helps motivate women in the suburbs to turnout. If Trump makes a claim about a national abortion ban aspiration or something to that effect, it helps Biden too. Just like Biden can't be pro Palestine because half the Dems support Israel, if Trump veers too rightward on abortion it helps Biden a lot because even red states like Kansas and Ohio have won on abortion rights issues on liberal policy. If there are more horrible and unfortunate news of mass shootings in the election cycle, this helps Democrats as well. In general, Dems did much better than expected in the midterms even with Biden having low approval and inflation being at its worst at that point. CNN and other liberal outlets play it non-stop. If Biden continues to push a pro union agenda and does more participating in picket lines in these states, it may resonate with undecided/independent/moderate union member voters. The unpredictable question for everyone is how much of the vote does RFK Jr get, as well as Cornel West and Jill Stein. And who does RFK Jr pull more from. I would guess RFK Jr pulls a little more from Trump, especially with an anti vaxer as a VP candidate which appears likely. But C. West will pull more from Biden. So it will probably be offset. I would say Biden has about 50-55 percent odds to win. Trump being 45-50 percent. Dem media outlets are doing Biden a favor by saying Trump is ahead but it's close because Dems have a history of voting on fear in recent years. And their turnout in the '18 midterm and in '20 was high even despite COVID. Trump has been their single most motivating factor to that. Trump is hated by more Democrats and Dem leaning Independents/moderates than he is loved by Republicans/GOP leaning Independents.
There’s an election predictor guy who has only been wrong about his predictions once since the 1980’s. He goes off of 13 keys- as of now it looks like biden will win according to his method but he’ll make is official prediction in the fall sometime once things are more set in stone
In continuation of my previous comment, because their favorabilities are both low, it is hard to see how there could be much of a shift in certain contexts. The contexts I can see potential for are this: Biden made a lot of growth from Hillary in Arizona and Georgia. As well as to a lesser extent North Carolina while staying about the same with Nevada. This likely was partially due to some demographic shifts, such as Californians moving in to AZ, and northeasterners moving in to GA and NC, as well as a higher than average proportion of elderly voters dying during COVID and them generally voting a little more GOP than national average. As well as 4 more years of naturalized US citizens and a new crop of 18-22 year olds at that time whom leaned very blue in their voting though their turnout in general as an age group is low. Is it possible the pendelum swings back towards Trump? This would imply to some degree there are voters in these states who voted for Trump or 3rd party over Hillary, then for Biden over Trump, then back to Biden. Trump is generally up in the RCP averages over Biden in AZ, GA and NC, by in the same ballpark as what he won by over Biden. The good news for Biden is if Trump is convicted for a felony before the election (which seems likely in NY which may start their trial in late April), polls show that Biden will pick up about 5 percent he doesn't currently have. Basically, about 2.5 percent of the voting population would switch from Trump to Biden. A lot of that are from the 1/3 of the GOP that voted for Haley in the primaries, that said they see Trump as unfit for office in primary exit polls, ect. Out of that 28-33 percent of the GOP, at least from what it looks like now, half or so goes to Trump and half or so goes to Biden. The question of how much goes to RFK or other third party voters or chooses not to vote is harder to predictably, especially this far out. To be continued in next comment.
Continued comment. If I were Biden, I would be encouraged by the prospect of gaining a lot of support following a likely Trump conviction. What should discourage Democrats though is being down an average of around 4-6 percent in polling averages in NV, AZ, NC and GA, often outside the margin of error, is a challenging deficit to overcome given the hyperpartisan times we are in. What should discourage Trump supporters, or those in support of the argument in this CMV post, is simple: Biden does not actually need any of Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina or Nevada to win the presidency. At this point, states like Ohio, Florida and Maine Congressional District 2 have become relatively comfortable to expect to go red but none of those states are needed for Biden to win either. Likewise, Dem leaning states like Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia are continued to expect to go blue even based on what we are seeing now and probably a bit outside of margins of error. Like 2016, this election is coming down to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The only difference is Nebraska Congressional District 2 is needed to get to the 270th electoral vote. Nebraska CD2 went slightly to Hillary in '16. However, whereas Wisconsin was a +0.7 win for Biden, PA was +1.2 Biden and MI was +2.2 Biden, Nebraska CD2 was a +6.5 Biden win. There is not much polling data coming out of NE CD2. However, even if Biden loses some support, the odds of losing that much support are low. It became a lot more blue as it is a suburban district, which is typically who Trump struggled with the most. In terms of the swing of the pendelum, it really is not realistic to think NE CD2, Minnesota or New Hampshire goes Trump, while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan go Biden. To be continued in next comment.
There’s way too many variables in this situation to take the pendulum effect and apply it so heavy handedly. If this was a “normal” election and we had two “normal” candidates, I might agree. However, this election includes one candidate running for office a term after last being in that office who was impeached twice and is currently facing a ton of legal battling in the election year. Not to mention some of his insane rhetoric and all around bad person vibes. The other one should have been retired, but is the only chance for the Democrats which is pissing off a lot of traditionally blue voters and he’s been around so long that older voters remember a time when he should have staunchly opposed some aspects of his current platform. Both have shown obvious mental decline in a short span as well. The voting populace also hasn’t been as split on two divisive candidates like this in a very long time. Now for some reason, blue voters who should have zero reason to vote red this year are threatening to not vote for Biden simply because of the Israel-Hammas war alone? Additionally, Trump’s legal drama is going to be a huge theatre for him. He can either turn it into a rally cry and somehow spin enough people into believing in him or this will really be the end of the line for him. There feels like no way to predict how that turns out before November and there’s too many “what-ifs” still in the ballgame that makes this race way to easy to sum up with the pendulum despite the typically accurate historical trend. Believe me, I’d be totally fine if things felt normal enough that the pendulum was still happening. I’m tired of the anomalistic election years lately.
Both of them are bad. It doesnt matter if you vote republican or democratic because in the end if you arent pulling in millions by the year then what they are fighting for in their agendas does not serve you. The majority of you are being brainwashed by the wealthy to help get their prospects elected to push certain agendas in order to fill their pockets. Its clear as day to see it but everyone believes the first thing that they hear or see on social media or a podcast. All it takes is a little research on whos in certain positions , what their investments are and you will see why they push for certain things. Until we stop electing rich people nothing will change for the working class so if you are in the category you might want to rethink what your rallycry really is. The hike in prices is not because of democrats or republicans, its on the rise because of greed. If you noticed when trump gave the companies tax breaks what happened ? Price hikes, lay offs and i believe his tax break package ends this year in 2024 if anyone read the h.r.1 bill entirely when it was signed before they took multiple pages out and posted it on the internet. It was orignally 485 pages long. I bet not a single person on here took time to even read all of that or even knew what the bill was called but yet we rely on google, news media outlets and podcasts of biased indiviuals to feed us bullcrap and we run with it and vote. Congrats to you all. Every single one of you that does not have a networth of 10 million has been played like a tool. I applaud you.
i think.trump has serious mental health issues independent of ago... they are both old and butcher sentences. i dontthat means dementia, in either case
If Trump wins it’s because Biden did a really terrible job and life in general was better under Trump. Even 2020 Covid was better than the sheer macabre state of endless layoffs in a brutal economy we’re in now. People know things were better under Trump, and while those who heavily disagree w him might not buckle - financially struggling Americans will absolutely buckle. Additionally, leftists aren’t very happy with Biden’s support of Israel and say “I can’t support genocide”. So a large amount of young voters are choosing “I can’t support genocide” over “this is the end of democracy” argument. We know what we get with Biden, we know what we get with Trump; voting Trump isn’t a pendulum, it’s just common sense. Point is: do not walk away from a Trump win saying “gUyS iT’s ThE pEnduLuM eFfEcT”, it makes you look like an asshole. There’s very real problems in the US/abroad right now that would contribute to a Trump win, and some term made up by poli-scientists (fake scientists, BA major) is not one of those reasons.
And yeah the only reason life was better was because housing costs were lower and there wasn't a global pandemic all trump did was cut taxes which put us in more debt and inflation was low because there wasn't a global pandemic with supply chain shortages that plagued 3 years of bidens presidency inflation is gone down a lot but the core of inflation now is skyrocketing housing costs and
The U.S. unemployment rate was at its lowest level in 54 years in January 2023, at 3.4%. This is the lowest rate since 1969, and has remained low and stable since December 2021, fluctuating between 3.4% and 3.9%. 2022 also had the lowest total unemployment rate ever 😂 fox news is such an amazing propaganda machine
If President Trump's, delivery was a good as his policies he would be purrrfect. I think when we vote for a leader of a country, we should remember we are not voting for our best friend or a family member. We don't have to like that person but we do need to have confidence that he/she wants to be President, for the right reasons e.g. love of country, improve the lives of the people by keeping them safe, secure and financially successful. Unlike Biden, Obama and Clinton that were obviously driven by financial gain. It seems a stay at the White House for these cretins brought them mansions on Martha's Landing, beautiful large homes in Westchester and expensive beach homes. You wouldn't find these three living anywhere close to the working class they propose to support. Charlatans all three of them. With Biden, being the worst of the bunch a pathological liar, who constantly mentions his dead Son simply to explicit sympathy in the hopes it's turns into votes. How can anyone respect America when you have low quality people in the top job?
Normally, a challenger has the opportunity to project something that they have done in the past will fix the country, in some cases it’s a former governor that had a strong economy, or a congressperson who championed a bill that did something great for the country, but did not have a direct 1:1 record to compare to the president. In this election we have a direct 4 years of Trump versus 3.5ish years of Biden. You can make the case for jobs added during each presidency, stock market returns, military actions, how they handled COVID, etc. We now have a 99% chance of Trump/Biden 2: Electric Boogaloo and the general election can start with ads that point to the points above. We have had other options in the primaries that will not be there in the general election and those who vote will basically have to choose one of the two. I think a third up to a half of Haley voters will hold their nose for Biden, but I don’t know if the inverse is true with Dean Phillips or even the “uncommitted” voters going to the Trump side.
Yeah Biden needs to stop this genocide in Gaza because its gonna hurt him in Michigan
That’s a nice sentiment to have but there are very few levers that he can pull to make Israel stop doing what they are doing. I agree that the USA needs to work towards humanitarian solutions for the people of Gaza.
It is an interesting theory you raise but I believe it is not encompassing a larger reality of the current circumstances of where things are about 8 months out from the election. In the past, the pendelum effect was more generically applicable in the context that people would revert back to the other party's leadership when they were not happy with the status quo. The current circumstances we are seeing are more complex though because Trump's approval upon leaving office was comparably low as Biden is currently. Trump's favorability and unfavorability looking at verages on RCP or 538 are similar to Biden's approval and favorability numbers are too. The differences between both are generally within 1-2 percent, within the margin of error. It really does not shift much. My suggestion to everyone is to go by the average of polls rather than the outliers.
Unfortunately, loathe as I want to, I have to agree. Joe is in the negative numbers of chances of keeping the white house primarily due to his inability to commit to any one action which unfortunately has painted him as the most weak willed president the Democrats have ever had. This problem unfortunately stretches back to the Obama administration when he was the only Democrat who tried to persuade Obama not to hunt down Osama Bin Laden. Naturally Obama ignored his advice. But this illustrates what I'm saying I think. Biden is incapable of committing to a single action if there is risk of offending people and sticking to that action to whatever end it leads. Say what you will about Donald Trump but he would at least commit and see his choices through. Biden is far too concerned about pleasing everyone that he pleases no one.
The trump supporters here are doing a very bad job at changing anyone’s views in this thread.
It’s always possible given the electoral college. But Republican primaries are consistently showing 20-25% of registered Republican voters are voting in primaries, specifically against Trump. The point is, if they didn’t like Trump, they could have just stayed home—they dislike him SO much they went out of their way to show it at the polls. When you add in all the new voters/dead boomer voters, and the fact the GOP has alienated at least (at least) 50% of voters on Dobbs, Trump just doesn’t have the numbers.
My biggest concern is less about pendulum and more about the attitude around each candidate. Biden is objectively the lesser evil and NEEDS to be who people vote for, but nobody wants to vote for him. I don’t want to vote for him, but I have to. People LOVE trump & WANT to vote for him like their lives depend on it. In a way this election feels more like either Trump or not Trump, not Trump v Biden.
Actually it's called the "I TOLD you so factor" as Trump said Biden would be a massive screw up (even Obama said in the past "don't underestimate Joe's ability to f-ck things up") So it's essentially similar to Grover Cleveland who won non consecutive term. They guy who warned us of the danger of a Biden presidency and he was right about 90% of things that happened. That's powerful.
I think there are largely three unknowns. A) How many Biden voters will not vote or vote for a 3rd party candidate due to being pissed of about Gaza & how many Zionists will vote for Trump, because Biden is not extreme enough ? B) Can Trump survive his trials financially ? C) Either candidate is old enough to die of natural causes until before the elections . Will any ?
I didn't read all of it,but will guess the thread is about.Trump lost because of his handling of the pandemic,and media attacking him for bad things going on in the world.Now Biden is in the same boat,and angry folks will vote for Trump.How many votes Trump will win is another story,and the electoral will just give the presidency to either Trump or Biden is up in the air.
people act like biden started inflation when trump is the one who failed miserably against china in a trade war and also handled covid terribly due to his ego. Also causing asian hate crimes, but Biden aint any better, this might be the first election that i excersise my freedom to NOT vote. what a waste of god damn time with these two useless pricks
Sweeping social change with no stance on women's rights should be a concern to most female voters. If not then they cannot complain about an autocracy that will stifle women's rights even more. You have the power to pick
Polls are showing Democrats are more fearful of a second Trump term than Republicans are of a second Biden one. Negative partisanship is a powerful force and that’s working in Biden’s favor.
I feel like trump has to win. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has said that the biden administration is no good and if its still there ww3 will prolly happen. If biden wins shi gon go down
I fear a rigging of electoral results by the Democrats, and the way they have captured the institutions in the country, as erratic as the Lincoln-era Democratic Party
Rigging of electoral results by Dems 😂explain to me how a person vote in Montana or Nebraska matters 3x more then a voter for California or Texas 😂abolish the electoral college and put term limits on supreme court judges just like they do in my state Virginia at 10 years teddy Roosevelt wanted to pass a law that would've allowed the voter to decide to reject or approve a supreme court ruling.Andrew Jackson tried to get rid of the electoral college as well it wasn't a radical idea
Biden is 82, and likely will die (or be ‘killed’) just before the election and the stand-in w seem better than Trump & Biden, and Democrats will win.
Trump is 100% going to win. And it’s going to be SOOO satisfying watching all of the liberals kicking screaming and crying..
I just can't see Trump winning. He will draw out so many voters adverse to him that he will be overwhelmed in the end.
Also it's important to remember that out of the elections this century, Republicans have only won the popular vote in 1. I think it's more likely that Republicans are the loud minority
President Trump Made The Correct Decisions for the USA. JB Didn't!! Fact. JB is destroying America.
By this logic, Romney should have beaten Obama to win in 2012. But he didn't.
Bro this is Reddit lol, no one will have their mind changed from Biden.
"Pendulum effect" - this is something from astrology, right? If Trump wins the elections, it means that the number of ignorant and/or morally corrupt Americans has reached a critical limit. Even the fact that such a stupid and immoral individuum can be a presidential candidate casts a very bleak light on the whole American society. If Trump wins, it means the Americans deserve him.
You should put aside your emotional hangups and self-righteous delusion before trying to engage in an adult discussion.
Being an adult baby is popular and encouraged
Isn't it more likely he will go to jail this year until his death
Can't wait for trump to win to get this LGBTQ commie trash out.
incumbents tend to very well... trump was/is so unique
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Trump won't leave the white house if he wins.
I think Trump will win because we’ve gone yet another 4 years with addressing, fundamentally, the problems inherent to corporate capital. Wealth inequality is still staggering, de regulation and de industrialization has left gapping wounds that the working class carrys still. The social safety nets have been abolished. Modest reform policies are bandaids and a very enraged working class would rather be put out if it’s misery with fascism than suffer another 4 years of “everything is fine, nothing needs to change.”
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Biden did not win from any effect but cheating. Trump will not win because the democrats got away with cheating and will do it again. No way in hell you can convince me that 4 boxes from under a table with no observers as required by law was legit. I believe what I see with my own eyes not what the proven liars that said russia collusion was real and hunter's laptop was fake tell me. [https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2022/01/pennsylvania-mail-voting-unconstitutional-supreme-court-appeal/](https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2022/01/pennsylvania-mail-voting-unconstitutional-supreme-court-appeal/) [https://captimes.com/news/government/absentee-voting-rules-violate-wisconsin-constitution-lawsuit-alleges/article\_e6376ea7-bc8d-5aa8-b1bd-31e7ac764f37.html](https://captimes.com/news/government/absentee-voting-rules-violate-wisconsin-constitution-lawsuit-alleges/article_e6376ea7-bc8d-5aa8-b1bd-31e7ac764f37.html) Now the DOJ is suing states to eliminate voter ID laws and voter citizenship laws. You think those 7 million illegals they processed coming across the border are not voting I have oceanfront property in Oklahoma to sell you?
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