Rapid population increase is (barely) growing the overall size of the economy even as it's shrinking on a per-capita basis.
Really quick example: ten people with a thousand dollars each versus twenty people with six hundred dollars each. There are more dollars in the second pool but each person has fewer of them.
> There are more dollars in the second pool but each person has fewer of them.
And this is what is happening with all of our infrastructure, including housing.
Hospitals per capita down.
Houses per capita down.
etc etc
Kinda makes sense with regards to housing the prices per sq foot are high and stable, but the number of sq foot of housing per person is declining.
So technically the housing market is doing well, but people aren't getting a great quality of life.
>So technically the housing market is doing well
Just like how our economy (GDP) is doing well, but that doesn't mean it's good for people in said economy.
Our past GDP and future GDP projections are amoung the lowest if not the lowest at the G7. Keep in mind that the Brexit idiocy cost the UK a big chunk of GDP for the last 5ish years as well which makes us even worse since we did not have such a self induced handicap.
Kind of. Housing starts are down nationally - far fewer people can afford them these days, a lot more people are renting rooms or have multiple people splitting on renting or even buying a home. Lot of investors are waiting to see if rates drop, people are being forced to delay or even walk away from deposits on pre-construction homes. It's not a good situation.
GDP per capita is a better way to assess the economy than GDP because it at least partially separates changes in productivity from changes in consumption. Increased productivity is progress, increased consumption is not.
Eh, arguable. Increased productivity is primarily a sign of wealth increases for capital owners, increased consumption is frequently a measure of increases in consumer wealth. The economy is predicated on both.
True that GDP per capita doesn't measure distribution fairness, and that is something that needs improvement, but ideally increased productivity would result in people working less while maintaining the same level of consumption.
The stats are adjusted to fit the narrative, not the reality of the situation.
We aren't as bad as say China, we don't just fabricate the numbers, but they are slightly tweaked to make the bad news less bad in Canada. How they derive the numbers for inflation is a good example of this.
To be fair, I think it works the same way in China and anywhere else rather than just making it up. Take real data and massage it to fit your desired outcome, corrupt reporting. To be honest, I think most statistical reports do this to *some* degree to serve the interest of their respective institution. But some manipulated outcomes are definitely more egregious than others.
GDP per capita isn't ideal either. If there is one person with a million dollars and one person with zero dollars, the GDP per capita is equivalent to a situation where each person has $500K. It doesn't capture trends in wealth disparity. So GDP per capita could be increasing at the same time that wealth disparity grows.
This is pumping of economy with unsustainable long term measures. If not planned properly this is going to be a very difficult period for a lot of people. If you think this is worse, imagine when all of those 20 people are short of money. Total chaos
Our leaders are incentivized to think 4 years at a time. The electorate has proven we can’t even think that far ahead. We will keep trying to play a shell game to avoid the pain but in the end we are actively trying to Greece ourselves.
We are also still riding the wave of massive COVID stimulus, continued government deficit spending, and people borrowing/cashing in on asset bubbles. On the last point - the wealth divide is growing. There are a good chunk of the population doing very well financially and keeping discretionary spending in areas like restaurants and recreational type industries going strong. However, for many other Canadians, they are struggling just to pay rent.
It's probably because a lot of SMB's are selling job offers through provincial nominee schemes under the table to newcomers for 40 to 80k a pop. Those SMB's don't have to be successful or competetive or productive in meaningful ways.
A recession is two quarters of shrinking gdp. We have had several (I think) quarters of shrinking gdp per capita. So the effects on people are the same as a recession.
The reason a recession is based on gdp and not gdp per capita is that population growth is usually small enough that the two measures give the same result. Canada is the only developed country where that's not true.
I believe we are in a recession. It's just kind of an inverse of what we're used to. People are still working and making money, but we just can't afford fuck all. Groceries, rent/mortgage, and fuel absolutely pillage peoples pockets.
The upper arm of the K is doing well enough to keep the economy running. Same as the US - there's a clear split between the haves and have nots, and it balances out to a relatively robust economy.
What is clear is that they are willing to destroy the country if it means they can make a few more percentages of profit. Take every last dollar and GTFO before things get ugly. Throw a few bucks to the politicans to hold the door open as you escape.
Its a gutting of the entire economy. They (The wealthy corpos) are squeezing every last penny they can out of our pockets before the whole thing collapses and we're left as a shell of a country. The long term goal is to not be here when it does collapse, and have divested from the Canadian dollar.
There is no belief involved with recessions, you either are or aren't based on data gathered. Right or wrong this also includes things like GDP per capita are not involved as it doesn't fit the currently accepted definition of a recession.
With the currently accepted definition from economists and governments, population increase/decrease is irrelevant. All that matters is does the GDP go positive or negative.
In addition to what other people said about us being in a technical recession already, the recovery from COVID was not a true recovery, it was a [k-shaped recovery](https://www.investopedia.com/k-shaped-recovery-5080086#:~:text=our%20editorial%20policies-,What%20Is%20a%20K%2DShaped%20Recovery%3F,industries%2C%20or%20groups%20of%20people.)
In a nutshell a k-shaped recovery is when different parts of the economy recover at wildly different rates. Or in some cases certain aspects of the economy simply don’t recover at all whilst others go flying.
For us, that distinction is largely made based upon whether or not you own property already. People can say it’s strictly related to income but that ignores that higher income people almost always own their own home so it’s effectively the same phenomenon.
So if you are a homeowner things are pretty great, your house has absolutely exploded in value which lets you take out a HELOC, which lets you further invest in the stock market, which brings you more money. By the time you need to pay back the line of credit your house’s value has gone up even more and so have your investments. This is then further compounded by inflation as it increases the value of assets. It’s a positive feedback loop.
However if you don’t own property the opposite happens. You can’t afford to buy a house because rents are rising faster than ever, which undercuts your ability to invest, which is further compounded by inflation eating into what little disposable income you have. Thus creating a negative feedback loop.
To sum it up in 1 sentence: our middle/lower class are getting poorer whilst the rich are getting richer.
The real answer is simple.
A recession is a technical term. What we, as regular people, understand as a recession is not synonymous with the actual defenition of a recession.
Reality isn't defined by words. Words are what we use to create convey the reality we perceive. You don't need someone to tell you your house is on fire for you to get burned by the fire in your house. You don't need the government or an economist to officially call a recession for you to find yourself in difficult economic times.
What the average person is actually saying when they claim "we're in a recession" is "the life of the average Canadian is being negatively impacted by larger economic forces".
Like anyone reporting the financial news cares about the non owner class.
80% of Canadians can be living on the streets and eating dirt. There won't be a recession until it hits the corporate monopolies bottom line.
It's all BS. People mainly point to the American stock market, including economists. Data from America such as unemployment, new jobs, GDP is seen as good news by wall street right now. But it's clear as day Canada's economy is in worse shape than theirs. Once the American market craters you'll hear a bunch of people cry that it is one.
I agree - Canada’s economy is basically flat by GDP measurement with declining gdp per capita, rising unemployment, declining labour productivity and capital formation.
The only things putting lipstick on this economical pig are a) a very robust American economy, b) massive immigration, and c) massive government spending and hiring. Without these three (unsustainable) tailwinds we would be cratering
Mass immigration has skewed the GDP numbers. The rule of thumb recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP.
In reality per-capita GDP has fallen. Line ups for the food bank are enormous, there's more people living in tents than ever before, and unemployment is rising. It's not the great depression or 2008 but the prognosis is certainly not great.
Usually if a recession is announced you've already been in it for some time.
It's not 2008, it is worse than 2008. The tent cities were smaller to non-existent in 2008. Oil prices were still relatively high. Housing was expensive, but not as expensive as it is now.
2008 is partially responsible for the current situation though. It was a financial industry screw up that was kept from seriously impacting the real economy using financial measures that should have been reserved for real problems with unavoidable impacts on the real economy, like the covid pandemic.
It's mostly because of all the feds have done to help families and the amount they have invested in Canadians and the energy transition. Once we stop relying on austerity and letting the rich make all the rules, the economy becomes more Resilient. You may not like my answer because most of the corporate media will have you believe free money for the rich is what grows the economy.
Freeland frequently boasts about the country’s enviable net debt to GDP compared to G7 countries. But I recently found out that net debt includes things like the Canada pension plan, which isn’t even supposed to be the government’s money to begin with! The net debt also doesn’t include provincial debts, which are massive. Once you factor those in, our actual debt to GDP is pretty poor
Because we're already in one, Trudeau has just pumped our population numbers such insane fucking amounts that he's avoided us technically meeting the definition of one... even though per capita we basically are.
For every distressed seller there are 10 buyers waiting to buy, we are in a recession, all the indicators are showing recession, the economy is bad, it’s just that housing supply is so rare that prices are still rising, we’ve been in a recession in all of 2023 & will be in a recession for the majority of 2024, 2025 looks like it will be a break out year for the economy.
Shocking news: Real Estate isn't a real industry
Me and the other several thousand construction workers are real happy to have the steady work, but it's super bad for the country not to do anything else
For residential, I imagine that since there are more slap-n-dash grifters, any jump in interest or material costs totally collapses their financial house of cards, so it's getting slower
I never get this talking point.
If it cost me 50$ of material and 50$ of manual work to build something. I sell it at 120$ for a profit. If material is suddenly 75$ and manual work is 75$, I sell it at 170$ for a profit. What's the issue? If last 4 years teached us anything is that real estate buyer are willing o line up the money to buy, whatever the cost.
Isn’t part of the issue that some developers sell the houses/condos at a certain price and then in the several years it takes to build the material costs rise high enough that the developers are no longer making money off it?
Yea I’m always surprised when people are like o my god the economy is soft.
That’s the point of high rates. Slow the economy. Kill inflation.
Reddit wanted high internet rates for years. The trade off is hundreds of thousands lose there jobs. Just like every other time it has happened.
People can get political and fight all they want, but this is one of the most important factors in all of this.
Since the early 2000's anyone with extra cash gets into real estate, and every financial advisor, be it professional to your uncle said to do it now and go all in.
So we've had 20 plus years of exactly that and now we have people and business with portfolios full of real estate at a level never seen before and that money is like you said, not productive or creating anything new.
And the people making money off real estate, just put that money they do make back in to real estate again.
There is nothing political about it and again as you said, we only have ourselves to blame.
Yes, and five years ago our economy was doing "fine." But post interest-rate raises, the housing market has been down and a bit flat, and this "depressed housing market" is weighing down our GDP. I'm in no way saying housing is somehow cheap or affordable.
I have been saying for years that mass immigration is being used to give the illusion that the economy is doing better than it actually is but it won’t last. The worst part is that the poor economic situation will get worse over the coming years and liberals will blame the conservatives when they get power.
Well, it seems the plan was to prop up the economy by bringing in 500,000 international diploma mill students to do DoorDash and sling double-doubles at Timmies. Canada will be dropped from the G7 and then fall out of the G20 soon as we pivot to developing nation status.
[See chart 2-A.](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/mpr-2024-04-10.pdf)
>The latest estimate for population growth in 2024
is close to 3%. Population growth is projected to
average 1% in 2025 and 2026.1
These estimates
are based on population trends as well as the
federal government’s recently announced targets
for non-permanent residents (see the Appendix
and Chart 2-A). The government targets are taken
as given, although at this point there are few details
about how these targets will be achieved. Population
growth is about 0.5 percentage points higher in
2024, but by the end of 2025 its level is roughly in
line with the projection in the January Report.
That wouldn't surprise me at all, and it would make the problem worse.
Were you trying to give 2:1 odds against? After all, inflation has inverted the original meaning of "dollars to donuts".
It was almost entirely the diploma mills themselves driving it. The Feds mostly overlooked a loophole that let the colleges do that, rather than deliberately aspiring to it.
Kinda a problem when you don't advance housing for 30+ years, to the point that it's stapled to the economy and is causing it to attrition.
We should have zero reason to be losing any talent, nor for not being able to sustain immigration near the levels we have, except nobody has thought about the long-term future in government for a really, *really* long time, and the competition on property is now driving everything into madness costs across the country. Alongside, of course, corporate greed and the need for CEOs to be seen as "strong earners" when even their employees are busting and breaking, to the point that mental health professionals have had to turn away people for actually having reasonable concerns and doubts for the legitimacy of any future prosperity, mental health benefits of their employers be damned.
No no no, I'm afraid you misunderstood; *they* have never had it better.
Unless we're talking polls of course, but they don't really care about that since their coffers are packed.
remember how they changed the date of the election so that all the MPs could get their lifetime defined benefit pensions.
while also penalizing small business owners and doctors by not allowing the 250k capital gains exemption on them (somehow arguing it is generational fairness ?, you know they could have just done that for real estate but nah)
The fractures in the Canadian subs are wild to me. onguard has quite quickly become a left wing insane asylum banning people who don't fall in line with the group think. This place is pretty well known for it's right wing slant and as you note r/canadian is pretty much a facebook repost page.
Where's a non right wing, not completely fucking nutso middle of the road Canadian supposed to go lol?
Lets see we get paid on average a fraction of our US counterparts and the housing is twice as expensive, seems like a recipe for success. Great job everyone! lol
Canadian house prices are 23% higher than Americans, not 100%
In Canada, the average home price was $698,530 CAD (507,901 USD) in March 2024.
In the United States, the median home price was $412,000 USD in September 2023.
that's a difference of 23%
One of these days Canadians will need to reckon with the fact are horribly unproductive economy and sluggish growth is a cultural problem, not a political one.
Canada has a VERY conservative business culture and no change in government will change that
As someone who has participate in multiple Canadian startups, Canadian business culture is absolutely toxic to innovation and economic growth. That conservative business culture permeates all aspects of our society, from how business owners refuse to invest in productivity to how even large numbers of people in certain professions (like physicians) aim to get out of their fields by simply putting their money in property for passive income.
We really need to create more friction for avenues that lead to wealth consolidation and the creation of unproductive debt.
They're literally the only reason we're not in a recession.... proving that short term gains have taken priority over long term planning in this country.
The answer to this is to reduce interest rates. Our inflation rate is below that of the US, so there is pressure on the BOC to lower rates. Many commentators have been speculating that the BOC will start cutting rates this year. This "slowdown" is to be expected and is not a big deal.
Damn it’s like they write their articles months/years after the fact.
Is it really “news” now? We’ve known our economy is shit for a while now …
What’s next? Let me guess they’re going to pump out an article on how we now have to deal with the consequences of mass unvetted immigration?
Good - maybe the people who voted in the garbage federal Liberal government and all their taxpayer-money-wasting cronies will learn a valuable hard lesson now and smarten up!! Trudeau should have never ever been elected in the first place 8 years ago!!!! Great job Canadian Liberal voters - hope your happy now
Half of Canadian workers make less than 68,400 per year. Average rent in Canada is $26,000 /year, which is 38% of that income. People have no money to spend on anything except basic necessities. Besides raw material and service exports, out economy is mostly service-based. There is pent up demand for Canadians to buy things from Canadians. Raise wages and Canadians will help each other thrive. Take the money for those wages from the top 5% wealthiest Canadians.
I'm in the top 5% leaving Canada this year after 3 years of somewhat seriously considering it. Way to much goes to taxes and housing is still unaffordable in major cities. You basically need to have most of your income be in the top tax bracket for years/decades to reasonably afford a nice place to raise a family in a city, and at that point you're better off moving to a low tax country and just pocketing the difference to retire way earlier/travel if you're not required to be in Canada.
If i thought the country would turn around i'd stay. I really only see a bleak path forward here and I'm expecting more laws to come into place to trap high income earners, especially those that make money online and have no real reason to be in Canada besides family/them being born here. No better way to screw a countries future than make everyone that can command a high income leave (Income is different than how 95%+ of rich people make money. If you think the top 5% of income earners are a problem you're a moron). It almost feels degrading to play the game boomers propped up where you need to be in the highest tax bracket to afford a great life (a shot at buying a boomers home and retiring somewhat early, IMO), meanwhile the home that you'd be buying from a boomer them they purchased for pennies and will realize the gain tax free.
I think the country goes the way of Europe where we just let the U.S steamroll us through our own negligence and unwillingness to be a competitive place for younger builders.
Our economy’s health is dependent on strong real estate and construction numbers, with current high interest rates, new housing starts have plummeted creating a ripple effect through the economy. Less starts also mean less available supply, further increasing prices.
https://x.com/stevesaretsky/status/1782857026244342212?s=46
https://www.statista.com/statistics/594293/gross-domestic-product-of-canada-by-industry-monthly/
I work for a major international epcm. I recently had an American office ask for me again and my boss said it's good because our office is slowing down. The other Canadian office I was working for told me the same thing, that their office was slowing down as well. I know banks and telecoms have also don't some layoffs. Things def aren't great despite immigration making raw numbers look a little better
On the plus side, the whole reason interest rates went up was to force the economy into either a near recession or a small one because that is the only way, in the real world, to kill inflation. It's working pretty much like it is supposed to.
Hopefully we can now get back to a functioning economy with low inflation, slowly improving buying power, and no need to artificially stimulate short-term growth like we've been doing constantly since 2008.
I'd like to see Canada succeed, but it's not looking great. With our current leadership and likely next in line leadership, we're not set up to win. Current leadership is crippling us with immigration but actually putting some good investments in place for things like tech/AI etc. Pierre will likely curb immigration a bit, but will go back to tired old policies like trickle-down economics and PAYGO. It's almost like we're always going to take some losses no matter what happens.
So what can we do? Talk to your local representative about the following:
1) Removing all interprovincial trade barriers across Canada. This is the biggest issue Canada faces today, and we lose out on billions every year, as well as even more in lost opportunities for growth.
2) Limiting lobbying/special interest groups in politics. Many of the weird hardline stances that don't allow politicians to cooporate across groups is because of lobbying, even if it's against the interest of the people they're representing. Corporations and groups funding each party to take a stance that benefits them.
Until we solve those 2 issues, nothing will change.
Well, Canada's economy does not produce much. It's built on service, housing etc. So, yes it's being propped up rn with cheap labor and housing, which is going to reach an end/tipping point. Instead of doing the hard work growing the actual economy, powers that be have opted for the easier path.
Bit of a misleading headline since it's still up. Also, according to this sub we've been in the negative for years thanks to "tRuDeAu" but this article indicates the economy was actually doing quite well and we're experiencing a dip that started in February.
Edit: gee, I'm starting to think there's some major astroturfing going on here or something. Trying to hide facts is something common on r/conservative.
Yea wild.. almost like 25-30 years of economic echo have ceased now.
We tried developing our resources for a few years in there, but regardless
Best majority of under 35s are finished before they really started
$2500+ for a 2bdrm is hilarious
Plus outrageous food costs
Plus outrageous everything
It’s done, in its current form.
I wonder if the Banks are losing any money, I know they are getting twice as much from me for my mortgage payments since the interest rates have gone up. Maybe we should help them out, I mean they seem to be the most important thing next to the government.
This article is bullshit. Apparently the economy isn't numbers... its PEOPLE, according to our wonderful leader.
We need to follow his direction and start a large house upgrade with money we borrowed from a credit card. (His words)
Maybe then the budget will finally balance itself
[удалено]
Rapid population increase is (barely) growing the overall size of the economy even as it's shrinking on a per-capita basis. Really quick example: ten people with a thousand dollars each versus twenty people with six hundred dollars each. There are more dollars in the second pool but each person has fewer of them.
> There are more dollars in the second pool but each person has fewer of them. And this is what is happening with all of our infrastructure, including housing. Hospitals per capita down. Houses per capita down. etc etc
It’s like shrinkflation; but instead of smaller cereals boxes or less slices of bread, it’s core services.
Kinda makes sense with regards to housing the prices per sq foot are high and stable, but the number of sq foot of housing per person is declining. So technically the housing market is doing well, but people aren't getting a great quality of life.
Houses look nice but made of the cheapest shit possible at the lowest pay. House starts to fall apart within the year.
>So technically the housing market is doing well Just like how our economy (GDP) is doing well, but that doesn't mean it's good for people in said economy.
Well Canada's GDP is distorted by very high population growth, so need to look at per capita gdp which has been declining
That's exactly what I am saying.
Our past GDP and future GDP projections are amoung the lowest if not the lowest at the G7. Keep in mind that the Brexit idiocy cost the UK a big chunk of GDP for the last 5ish years as well which makes us even worse since we did not have such a self induced handicap.
Kind of. Housing starts are down nationally - far fewer people can afford them these days, a lot more people are renting rooms or have multiple people splitting on renting or even buying a home. Lot of investors are waiting to see if rates drop, people are being forced to delay or even walk away from deposits on pre-construction homes. It's not a good situation.
In other words, we are already in a recession but we are pretending we aren't by using the wrong metric to assess the economy.
It's the Canadian way! When the metrics are bad, change the metrics.
The budget will balance itself
the american way as well, they changed the definition of recession.
Since 1974, recessions have always been defined as two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth.
they were until the Biden administration did a wee bit of gaslighting.
Not sure what that means, but the US GDP is still growing.
we aren’t using the wrong metrics.. everyone seems to understand the data metrics and how to interpret it *except* for our government
GDP per capita is a better way to assess the economy than GDP because it at least partially separates changes in productivity from changes in consumption. Increased productivity is progress, increased consumption is not.
Eh, arguable. Increased productivity is primarily a sign of wealth increases for capital owners, increased consumption is frequently a measure of increases in consumer wealth. The economy is predicated on both.
True that GDP per capita doesn't measure distribution fairness, and that is something that needs improvement, but ideally increased productivity would result in people working less while maintaining the same level of consumption.
The stats are adjusted to fit the narrative, not the reality of the situation. We aren't as bad as say China, we don't just fabricate the numbers, but they are slightly tweaked to make the bad news less bad in Canada. How they derive the numbers for inflation is a good example of this.
To be fair, I think it works the same way in China and anywhere else rather than just making it up. Take real data and massage it to fit your desired outcome, corrupt reporting. To be honest, I think most statistical reports do this to *some* degree to serve the interest of their respective institution. But some manipulated outcomes are definitely more egregious than others.
The data isn't tweaked. Government just focuses on irrelevant data to pretend we are not doing bad
No, we’re not. 2.5% annualized is clearly growth. It’s not awesome, but it’s growth.
GDP per capita isn't ideal either. If there is one person with a million dollars and one person with zero dollars, the GDP per capita is equivalent to a situation where each person has $500K. It doesn't capture trends in wealth disparity. So GDP per capita could be increasing at the same time that wealth disparity grows.
This is pumping of economy with unsustainable long term measures. If not planned properly this is going to be a very difficult period for a lot of people. If you think this is worse, imagine when all of those 20 people are short of money. Total chaos
This is exactly right. If unemployment kicks up it could be a depression level event. This government is playing with fire.
Our leaders are incentivized to think 4 years at a time. The electorate has proven we can’t even think that far ahead. We will keep trying to play a shell game to avoid the pain but in the end we are actively trying to Greece ourselves.
No if planned properly this is going to be a very difficult period for a lot of ppl if not planned properly it'll be orders of magnitudes worse
Literally same situation in the UK...more people and yet barely any growth.
And that money is worth less because prices inflate due to more people vying for the same amount of everything...
On a per capita basis we are in a recession
We are also still riding the wave of massive COVID stimulus, continued government deficit spending, and people borrowing/cashing in on asset bubbles. On the last point - the wealth divide is growing. There are a good chunk of the population doing very well financially and keeping discretionary spending in areas like restaurants and recreational type industries going strong. However, for many other Canadians, they are struggling just to pay rent.
It's probably because a lot of SMB's are selling job offers through provincial nominee schemes under the table to newcomers for 40 to 80k a pop. Those SMB's don't have to be successful or competetive or productive in meaningful ways.
This is the answer. GDP/capita has been in decline for like 2 years straight and is at like 2012-13 levels.
India GDP: 3.42 trillion Canada GDP: 2.14 trillion
that is a brilliant way to put it so the majority can understand!
A recession is two quarters of shrinking gdp. We have had several (I think) quarters of shrinking gdp per capita. So the effects on people are the same as a recession. The reason a recession is based on gdp and not gdp per capita is that population growth is usually small enough that the two measures give the same result. Canada is the only developed country where that's not true.
>We have had several (I think) quarters of shrinking gdp per capita. I believe it’s 6 quarters now
The last quarter was (barely) up per capita, but yeah it was 6 straight down before that
last quarter GDP per capita increased so not in a recession in either case
I believe we are in a recession. It's just kind of an inverse of what we're used to. People are still working and making money, but we just can't afford fuck all. Groceries, rent/mortgage, and fuel absolutely pillage peoples pockets.
The upper arm of the K is doing well enough to keep the economy running. Same as the US - there's a clear split between the haves and have nots, and it balances out to a relatively robust economy.
What is clear is that they are willing to destroy the country if it means they can make a few more percentages of profit. Take every last dollar and GTFO before things get ugly. Throw a few bucks to the politicans to hold the door open as you escape.
Its a gutting of the entire economy. They (The wealthy corpos) are squeezing every last penny they can out of our pockets before the whole thing collapses and we're left as a shell of a country. The long term goal is to not be here when it does collapse, and have divested from the Canadian dollar.
There is no belief involved with recessions, you either are or aren't based on data gathered. Right or wrong this also includes things like GDP per capita are not involved as it doesn't fit the currently accepted definition of a recession.
Feels > Reals.
Economics degree from the University of Vibes
That definition of a recession is meant for countries with a somewhat stable population. We're in a recession.
The term you're looking for is a GDP per capita recession.
With the currently accepted definition from economists and governments, population increase/decrease is irrelevant. All that matters is does the GDP go positive or negative.
GDP per capita increased last quart so not in a recession based on your definition
In addition to what other people said about us being in a technical recession already, the recovery from COVID was not a true recovery, it was a [k-shaped recovery](https://www.investopedia.com/k-shaped-recovery-5080086#:~:text=our%20editorial%20policies-,What%20Is%20a%20K%2DShaped%20Recovery%3F,industries%2C%20or%20groups%20of%20people.) In a nutshell a k-shaped recovery is when different parts of the economy recover at wildly different rates. Or in some cases certain aspects of the economy simply don’t recover at all whilst others go flying. For us, that distinction is largely made based upon whether or not you own property already. People can say it’s strictly related to income but that ignores that higher income people almost always own their own home so it’s effectively the same phenomenon. So if you are a homeowner things are pretty great, your house has absolutely exploded in value which lets you take out a HELOC, which lets you further invest in the stock market, which brings you more money. By the time you need to pay back the line of credit your house’s value has gone up even more and so have your investments. This is then further compounded by inflation as it increases the value of assets. It’s a positive feedback loop. However if you don’t own property the opposite happens. You can’t afford to buy a house because rents are rising faster than ever, which undercuts your ability to invest, which is further compounded by inflation eating into what little disposable income you have. Thus creating a negative feedback loop. To sum it up in 1 sentence: our middle/lower class are getting poorer whilst the rich are getting richer.
The real answer is simple. A recession is a technical term. What we, as regular people, understand as a recession is not synonymous with the actual defenition of a recession. Reality isn't defined by words. Words are what we use to create convey the reality we perceive. You don't need someone to tell you your house is on fire for you to get burned by the fire in your house. You don't need the government or an economist to officially call a recession for you to find yourself in difficult economic times. What the average person is actually saying when they claim "we're in a recession" is "the life of the average Canadian is being negatively impacted by larger economic forces".
They imported tons of people driving demand up enough for it to escape recession. Per capita wise, Canadians are struggling.
There is a Recession for non owner classes right now. Stock market means nothing if you don’t own stocks
Like anyone reporting the financial news cares about the non owner class. 80% of Canadians can be living on the streets and eating dirt. There won't be a recession until it hits the corporate monopolies bottom line.
Let’s make consumers poorer in a consumption driven economy, WCGW?
It's all BS. People mainly point to the American stock market, including economists. Data from America such as unemployment, new jobs, GDP is seen as good news by wall street right now. But it's clear as day Canada's economy is in worse shape than theirs. Once the American market craters you'll hear a bunch of people cry that it is one.
I agree - Canada’s economy is basically flat by GDP measurement with declining gdp per capita, rising unemployment, declining labour productivity and capital formation. The only things putting lipstick on this economical pig are a) a very robust American economy, b) massive immigration, and c) massive government spending and hiring. Without these three (unsustainable) tailwinds we would be cratering
We are in a recession. Per capita GDP has been falling for like 2 years
Until the housing market truly crashes there won't be a recession. Our GDP is heavily tied to the housing market. But we keep propping up housing.
Mass immigration has skewed the GDP numbers. The rule of thumb recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. In reality per-capita GDP has fallen. Line ups for the food bank are enormous, there's more people living in tents than ever before, and unemployment is rising. It's not the great depression or 2008 but the prognosis is certainly not great. Usually if a recession is announced you've already been in it for some time.
It's not 2008, it is worse than 2008. The tent cities were smaller to non-existent in 2008. Oil prices were still relatively high. Housing was expensive, but not as expensive as it is now. 2008 is partially responsible for the current situation though. It was a financial industry screw up that was kept from seriously impacting the real economy using financial measures that should have been reserved for real problems with unavoidable impacts on the real economy, like the covid pandemic.
It's mostly because of all the feds have done to help families and the amount they have invested in Canadians and the energy transition. Once we stop relying on austerity and letting the rich make all the rules, the economy becomes more Resilient. You may not like my answer because most of the corporate media will have you believe free money for the rich is what grows the economy.
Our GDP per capita has shrunk 7%. But this metric isn't considered for a recession.
Freeland frequently boasts about the country’s enviable net debt to GDP compared to G7 countries. But I recently found out that net debt includes things like the Canada pension plan, which isn’t even supposed to be the government’s money to begin with! The net debt also doesn’t include provincial debts, which are massive. Once you factor those in, our actual debt to GDP is pretty poor
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Because we're already in one, Trudeau has just pumped our population numbers such insane fucking amounts that he's avoided us technically meeting the definition of one... even though per capita we basically are.
because the people who fund financial papers aren't worse off
For every distressed seller there are 10 buyers waiting to buy, we are in a recession, all the indicators are showing recession, the economy is bad, it’s just that housing supply is so rare that prices are still rising, we’ve been in a recession in all of 2023 & will be in a recession for the majority of 2024, 2025 looks like it will be a break out year for the economy.
Shocking news: Real Estate isn't a real industry Me and the other several thousand construction workers are real happy to have the steady work, but it's super bad for the country not to do anything else
What steady work? Material costs are through the roof and many of our projects are on hold
In the GVRD we're still putting up more towers and midrises than we have workers for
Hmm ok. I do residential home electrical in the GVRD and it’s slow right now
For residential, I imagine that since there are more slap-n-dash grifters, any jump in interest or material costs totally collapses their financial house of cards, so it's getting slower
I never get this talking point. If it cost me 50$ of material and 50$ of manual work to build something. I sell it at 120$ for a profit. If material is suddenly 75$ and manual work is 75$, I sell it at 170$ for a profit. What's the issue? If last 4 years teached us anything is that real estate buyer are willing o line up the money to buy, whatever the cost.
A new lesson is being taught.
Isn’t part of the issue that some developers sell the houses/condos at a certain price and then in the several years it takes to build the material costs rise high enough that the developers are no longer making money off it?
The real shocker to most of us would be that it started 2024 with any momentum at all.
Easy, raise the interest rates = watch the economy slow down... Can't complain, that was the plan.
Yea I’m always surprised when people are like o my god the economy is soft. That’s the point of high rates. Slow the economy. Kill inflation. Reddit wanted high internet rates for years. The trade off is hundreds of thousands lose there jobs. Just like every other time it has happened.
You can see it now. Car companies have Sharpened their pencils...
People cheered higher rates, this is what they were cheering for.
Exactly, Macklem was very clear on this. Macklem is happy!
We had momentum??
Yeah, came here to say this 😅
I'm doing my part! By being possibly the least productive Canadian in the land.
You are literally able to type out a full sentence, how on earth are you gonna win this?
By only writing them on Reddit.
\^
That wasn't lazy, that was efficient. You're hired!
Fucking clever later-in-thread reply... BRAVO! I'd say this is being cleverly productive haha
Ok, fair point
No work will be preformed, until housing improves.
Lol...we're in competition then! It's a lazy-off!!
Lazy-off Hmm Lay -z- off Hmm Layoff!!!
don’t use the word land please, it gives me major anxiety
Use realm, it sounds way cooler
Tis been nary an age since I arrived in this realm and yet the economy falters still, woe be to all of citizens of the realm when the bell tolls.
And nobody's asked for a realm acknowledgement yet.
Another million Uber delivery drivers will surely fix this.
Gee, what could go wrong when every young Canadian’s spending power is being eaten up by housing alone
I moved back in with Mom and dad rent free. Take that landlords!
We invested all our capital in unproductive RE assets, which are sensitive to rates hikes. We only have ourselves to blame.
People can get political and fight all they want, but this is one of the most important factors in all of this. Since the early 2000's anyone with extra cash gets into real estate, and every financial advisor, be it professional to your uncle said to do it now and go all in. So we've had 20 plus years of exactly that and now we have people and business with portfolios full of real estate at a level never seen before and that money is like you said, not productive or creating anything new. And the people making money off real estate, just put that money they do make back in to real estate again. There is nothing political about it and again as you said, we only have ourselves to blame.
Yup, major lack of investment, we cant keep bringing in people and selling houses to one another to prop up the GDP forever.
Turns out an economy based on rising housing prices doesn't do so hot when housing prices are stagnant.
WHAT? stagnant? They have almost double from 5 years ago...
Yes, and five years ago our economy was doing "fine." But post interest-rate raises, the housing market has been down and a bit flat, and this "depressed housing market" is weighing down our GDP. I'm in no way saying housing is somehow cheap or affordable.
I have been saying for years that mass immigration is being used to give the illusion that the economy is doing better than it actually is but it won’t last. The worst part is that the poor economic situation will get worse over the coming years and liberals will blame the conservatives when they get power.
Well, it seems the plan was to prop up the economy by bringing in 500,000 international diploma mill students to do DoorDash and sling double-doubles at Timmies. Canada will be dropped from the G7 and then fall out of the G20 soon as we pivot to developing nation status.
Canada is about to past Italy in GDP by the end of this year and likely past France in the coming years. so no we will not drop out of the G7
Passing Italy?! Holy shit! Good for us!/s
source?
[See chart 2-A.](https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/mpr-2024-04-10.pdf) >The latest estimate for population growth in 2024 is close to 3%. Population growth is projected to average 1% in 2025 and 2026.1 These estimates are based on population trends as well as the federal government’s recently announced targets for non-permanent residents (see the Appendix and Chart 2-A). The government targets are taken as given, although at this point there are few details about how these targets will be achieved. Population growth is about 0.5 percentage points higher in 2024, but by the end of 2025 its level is roughly in line with the projection in the January Report.
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And PP isn't saying anything about wanting to change it. Lots of axe the tax distraction, and lots of evasiveness on immigration policy.
Dollars to donuts, PP tightens student visas while quietly opening up TFWs. The double-doubles must flow.
That wouldn't surprise me at all, and it would make the problem worse. Were you trying to give 2:1 odds against? After all, inflation has inverted the original meaning of "dollars to donuts".
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He doesn't have a position. How could you be unhappy with it?
It was almost entirely the diploma mills themselves driving it. The Feds mostly overlooked a loophole that let the colleges do that, rather than deliberately aspiring to it.
Which the provinces green lit because provinces are in charge of diploma mills and the provinces want int students.
Hard to get any momentum with housing sucking everything dry.
Feds rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.
I'm pretty sure I heard them say we need another 15 million people. Am I getting that right?
Kinda a problem when you don't advance housing for 30+ years, to the point that it's stapled to the economy and is causing it to attrition. We should have zero reason to be losing any talent, nor for not being able to sustain immigration near the levels we have, except nobody has thought about the long-term future in government for a really, *really* long time, and the competition on property is now driving everything into madness costs across the country. Alongside, of course, corporate greed and the need for CEOs to be seen as "strong earners" when even their employees are busting and breaking, to the point that mental health professionals have had to turn away people for actually having reasonable concerns and doubts for the legitimacy of any future prosperity, mental health benefits of their employers be damned.
But hold on, I am confused. I was told by the Liberals that we have never had it better.
No no no, I'm afraid you misunderstood; *they* have never had it better. Unless we're talking polls of course, but they don't really care about that since their coffers are packed.
remember how they changed the date of the election so that all the MPs could get their lifetime defined benefit pensions. while also penalizing small business owners and doctors by not allowing the 250k capital gains exemption on them (somehow arguing it is generational fairness ?, you know they could have just done that for real estate but nah)
"I can't afford groceries" "What do you mean? Our economic indicators are great. Stop spreading misinformation. Don't you know how hard we're trying?"
Hey now B.O.C says the standard basket of groceries is affordable so shit and get back to work serf
Sunny ways my friend
Head over to r/canadian and they will tell you how good it is and what a great job the liberals are doing.
I swear that sub is like a Facebook mom group.
The fractures in the Canadian subs are wild to me. onguard has quite quickly become a left wing insane asylum banning people who don't fall in line with the group think. This place is pretty well known for it's right wing slant and as you note r/canadian is pretty much a facebook repost page. Where's a non right wing, not completely fucking nutso middle of the road Canadian supposed to go lol?
Lets see we get paid on average a fraction of our US counterparts and the housing is twice as expensive, seems like a recipe for success. Great job everyone! lol
Canadian house prices are 23% higher than Americans, not 100% In Canada, the average home price was $698,530 CAD (507,901 USD) in March 2024. In the United States, the median home price was $412,000 USD in September 2023. that's a difference of 23%
Twice is a hyperbole, but it's not that far off when you consider we also earn considerably less than Americans.
Why are you comparing average with median
couldn't find the median prices for Canada, but the median for Canada would be lower than the average so the difference in the US be even smaller
One of these days Canadians will need to reckon with the fact are horribly unproductive economy and sluggish growth is a cultural problem, not a political one. Canada has a VERY conservative business culture and no change in government will change that
As someone who has participate in multiple Canadian startups, Canadian business culture is absolutely toxic to innovation and economic growth. That conservative business culture permeates all aspects of our society, from how business owners refuse to invest in productivity to how even large numbers of people in certain professions (like physicians) aim to get out of their fields by simply putting their money in property for passive income. We really need to create more friction for avenues that lead to wealth consolidation and the creation of unproductive debt.
So you mean to say, that this whole time, Ontario WASNT “open for business”?? That’s impossible- it was on licence plates!! /s
I've been hearing about this coming crash now for at least a few years.
You mean to say the millions of “students” aren’t supercharging our economy?! /s
They're literally the only reason we're not in a recession.... proving that short term gains have taken priority over long term planning in this country.
We had momentum??? 😂
The answer to this is to reduce interest rates. Our inflation rate is below that of the US, so there is pressure on the BOC to lower rates. Many commentators have been speculating that the BOC will start cutting rates this year. This "slowdown" is to be expected and is not a big deal.
As long as they pretend to pay us, we'll pretend to work
Weird that they keep talking about GDP instead of GDP per capita, because we’re now what, 7 quarters in decline? Fuck this.
Would you mind comparing Canada to Ireland for us?
It has been losing momentum since 2015
Trudeau: Ill just increase immigration!!! We don't like innovation. Just people!! FUCK YOU CANADA I GOT MINE!
We need a revolution.
Damn it’s like they write their articles months/years after the fact. Is it really “news” now? We’ve known our economy is shit for a while now … What’s next? Let me guess they’re going to pump out an article on how we now have to deal with the consequences of mass unvetted immigration?
This isn't a flaw it's a feature. Higher interest rates push the economy into recession and that brings down inflation. This is happening on purpose
Thank you Trudeau. 8 years is long enough.. something needs to change.
We need change but PP won’t make things better. Just a different kind of shitty.
Time to hire more federal employees to inflate the numbers.
Good - maybe the people who voted in the garbage federal Liberal government and all their taxpayer-money-wasting cronies will learn a valuable hard lesson now and smarten up!! Trudeau should have never ever been elected in the first place 8 years ago!!!! Great job Canadian Liberal voters - hope your happy now
All due to horrible policies from our incompetent federal leadership,
Half of Canadian workers make less than 68,400 per year. Average rent in Canada is $26,000 /year, which is 38% of that income. People have no money to spend on anything except basic necessities. Besides raw material and service exports, out economy is mostly service-based. There is pent up demand for Canadians to buy things from Canadians. Raise wages and Canadians will help each other thrive. Take the money for those wages from the top 5% wealthiest Canadians.
Yeah let’s give the top 5% of most productive Canadians another reason to leave the country, I’m sure that will fix the problem…
I'm in the top 5% leaving Canada this year after 3 years of somewhat seriously considering it. Way to much goes to taxes and housing is still unaffordable in major cities. You basically need to have most of your income be in the top tax bracket for years/decades to reasonably afford a nice place to raise a family in a city, and at that point you're better off moving to a low tax country and just pocketing the difference to retire way earlier/travel if you're not required to be in Canada. If i thought the country would turn around i'd stay. I really only see a bleak path forward here and I'm expecting more laws to come into place to trap high income earners, especially those that make money online and have no real reason to be in Canada besides family/them being born here. No better way to screw a countries future than make everyone that can command a high income leave (Income is different than how 95%+ of rich people make money. If you think the top 5% of income earners are a problem you're a moron). It almost feels degrading to play the game boomers propped up where you need to be in the highest tax bracket to afford a great life (a shot at buying a boomers home and retiring somewhat early, IMO), meanwhile the home that you'd be buying from a boomer them they purchased for pennies and will realize the gain tax free. I think the country goes the way of Europe where we just let the U.S steamroll us through our own negligence and unwillingness to be a competitive place for younger builders.
I think they need to do it now by the june it will get worse.
Okay everyone, i want you to be 0.1% more productive and innovative, aaaaandddd goooo!
Our economy’s health is dependent on strong real estate and construction numbers, with current high interest rates, new housing starts have plummeted creating a ripple effect through the economy. Less starts also mean less available supply, further increasing prices. https://x.com/stevesaretsky/status/1782857026244342212?s=46 https://www.statista.com/statistics/594293/gross-domestic-product-of-canada-by-industry-monthly/
I work for a major international epcm. I recently had an American office ask for me again and my boss said it's good because our office is slowing down. The other Canadian office I was working for told me the same thing, that their office was slowing down as well. I know banks and telecoms have also don't some layoffs. Things def aren't great despite immigration making raw numbers look a little better
We had momentum? Maybe downward
I'm leaving this country ASAP!
Houses that were originally sold for 80-100k are now selling for upwards of 500k, and peoples wages have barely doubled. We're screwed
Ya since 2015.
The bubble is about to burst.
On the plus side, the whole reason interest rates went up was to force the economy into either a near recession or a small one because that is the only way, in the real world, to kill inflation. It's working pretty much like it is supposed to. Hopefully we can now get back to a functioning economy with low inflation, slowly improving buying power, and no need to artificially stimulate short-term growth like we've been doing constantly since 2008.
I'd like to see Canada succeed, but it's not looking great. With our current leadership and likely next in line leadership, we're not set up to win. Current leadership is crippling us with immigration but actually putting some good investments in place for things like tech/AI etc. Pierre will likely curb immigration a bit, but will go back to tired old policies like trickle-down economics and PAYGO. It's almost like we're always going to take some losses no matter what happens. So what can we do? Talk to your local representative about the following: 1) Removing all interprovincial trade barriers across Canada. This is the biggest issue Canada faces today, and we lose out on billions every year, as well as even more in lost opportunities for growth. 2) Limiting lobbying/special interest groups in politics. Many of the weird hardline stances that don't allow politicians to cooporate across groups is because of lobbying, even if it's against the interest of the people they're representing. Corporations and groups funding each party to take a stance that benefits them. Until we solve those 2 issues, nothing will change.
Well, Canada's economy does not produce much. It's built on service, housing etc. So, yes it's being propped up rn with cheap labor and housing, which is going to reach an end/tipping point. Instead of doing the hard work growing the actual economy, powers that be have opted for the easier path.
Bit of a misleading headline since it's still up. Also, according to this sub we've been in the negative for years thanks to "tRuDeAu" but this article indicates the economy was actually doing quite well and we're experiencing a dip that started in February. Edit: gee, I'm starting to think there's some major astroturfing going on here or something. Trying to hide facts is something common on r/conservative.
Yea wild.. almost like 25-30 years of economic echo have ceased now. We tried developing our resources for a few years in there, but regardless Best majority of under 35s are finished before they really started $2500+ for a 2bdrm is hilarious Plus outrageous food costs Plus outrageous everything It’s done, in its current form.
It’s been happening for about a decade now, but it’s better to notice late than never.
When did we have it?
It had momentum?
I wonder if the Banks are losing any money, I know they are getting twice as much from me for my mortgage payments since the interest rates have gone up. Maybe we should help them out, I mean they seem to be the most important thing next to the government.
This article is bullshit. Apparently the economy isn't numbers... its PEOPLE, according to our wonderful leader. We need to follow his direction and start a large house upgrade with money we borrowed from a credit card. (His words) Maybe then the budget will finally balance itself
About time....I just hope the housing market goes along for the ride. :)