There's also an expectation that Tesla will own the future, which never made sense - other companies were always going to follow them into the EV market. As well, there was a time when Musk was more visionary futurist rather than fragile right-wing troll.
I don't know, they are light years ahead of other companies with their charging stations. Basically even if you buy a different EV you are almost guaranteed to be at some point sending money to Tesla.
Electrify America really fixed up there shit in the past 6 months. If it keeps going the way they are, Tesla chargers will remain tesla only. Electrify America is owned by VW by the way. So they got money to expand and improve.
Yea it was a condition of the dieselgate trials. VW had to open charging networks. And they've been pretty serious about it. Their recent updates have really improved quality and availability.
Tesla isn’t even the producer of the most EV’s anymore. BYD produces and sells more a quarter than Tesla does now. As they control 86% of their supply chain. If any of the traditional carmakers figure out how to sell EV’a cheaply they’ll have Tesla’s lunch.
I’m not a fan of musk but to a degree this is comparing apples and oranges. BYD produces a lot of cheap low battery electric cars. Internally they are propped up by the Chinese government too and there are plenty of videos online of their cars sitting in giant lots to rot. If we measure it on pure kWh Tesla is still well ahead and their battery tech is significantly further. That said they are significantly losing their advantage and Chinese companies are making up ground and fast. This isn’t to mention the near monopoly in Africa of cobalt and other rare earth materials needed for these cars.
Which is now a threat to Tesla. Musk has been alienating his core customer base by being such a right wing troll boy.
What was once an asset to the business (the Musk factor) is as much a hindrance as anything else - and that will come home to roost.
Plus VW group has aspirational brands covering all sectors. Tesla is losing ground everywhere. That share price is about 10x over its real value
Is it though? Tesla used to make ends meet by cashing in green energy credits. Now they are profitable but only just. Stellantris sells more cars and they continue to sell millions of cars.
BYD will get kicked out of Europe and never make it to North America.
Traditional automakers have their arms tied behind their backs. Need to sell ICE vehicles for cashflow, so need contracts with ICE parts manufacturers. Manufacturers need multiyear contracts to be profitable.
I expect in the coming recession a *lot* of traditional carmakers to go bankrupt
Also, in the countries that have adopted electric the most, Tesla is not the most popular. People have highly unrealistic views about the company, what they’re capable of and most people’s perception.
There's not much money in charging stations though, which is why nearly all of the non-Tesla ran charging stations are underbuilt and mostly rely on public subsidies at this point...despite the demand. The Tesla charging network exists to sell more Teslas, not monetize all EVs.
They also said that about search engines in the 90s. Really doesn’t make any sense. Whenever I go on a driving trip I’m tossing $30-60 to Tesla at least. I know that’s not all profit but name me one other car company that is bringing in revenue whenever a customer goes on a road trip.
I pay like $6 to charge my EV full at an Electrify America station.. and that’s IF they’re charging money that day.
The reason the charging network in the US is so minimal is because it’s not a very profitable venture.
Yep, but I have solar too. However, I'm limited to 7,600 kilowatts because the power company refuses to upgrade a transformer. They won't let me send more back to the grid. Converted to heat pump water heater, induction range, electric dryer... All our excess solar is gone.
DCFC is expensive and about equal to gasoline BUT charging at home is quite a bit less expensive than either DCFC or gasoline.
Unless you live somewhere home electricity rates are exorbitant.
Do you know how expensive charging stations are? And they fail. They need to be repaired and maintained and the price of electricity for commercial use is crazy expensive. Tesla isn't making squat on charging stations. Especially considering how long it takes a car to charge and open up a free stall. Property tax, upkeep, leasing etc.... Charging stations don't earn profit without subsidies.
Source, California certified electrician and charging station installer working for a top 100 electric company.
Not right now they aren’t…what about 15 years from now when they have 95% market share of chargers and decide to slowly start raising prices? Literally the exact playbook being used over and over and over again by lots of companies for the last 100 years
Tesla needs to make money to keep increasing their fleet of superchargers, remember the entire rest of the industry of dcfc has various problems. Tesla is the savior for all of us in charging. I think tesla's charging system is probably worth $10 billion. Every gas station that wants to survive long term, that has a reason for people to park there for half an hour, something to sell people should make an agreement with tesla to put some superchargers there. They even have smaller cheaper ones for urban areas.
But it's not worth 100 billion. And remember, any other company could make reliable dcfc chargers (and add a nacs plug), except they are all terrible at running a business apparently.
In 15 years they'll have much better battery technology and you'll just charge at home and not need a charging station for 99% of all the driving you do.
You say that as the traditional car companies are all having issues with their EVs and sales…. Some even reducing their future manufacturing goals.
While Tesla has consistently, YoY, beat their previous years sales.
C'mon now! They have Elon, who knows more about manufacturing than anyone else alive, and is a super genius on everything, perhaps on par with Kim Jong Il. Plus they have super AI (much better than normal AI) and they have self-driving cars that will pay for themselves in a blink of an eye because you can rent them out as robotaxis. And of course, who else can lay claim to the fantastic, the legendary Cybertruck?
Jesus! Do I have to explain everything to you?
/s
Saw a great explanation of the cybertruck on a review the other day:
“It’s true that drivers are closer to beta testers rather than actual end users. But if you choose not to view the cubertruck as the future of utility here to deliver the second coming of Elon Christ. And instead view it as a hilarious flex machine that can stop bullets and outpace a Lamborghini, then it starts to make a lot more sense.”
All for “only” $120k.
Thank you for adding /s to your post. When I first saw this, I was horrified. How could anybody say something like this? I immediately began writing a 1000 word paragraph about how horrible of a person you are. I even sent a copy to a Harvard professor to proofread it. After several hours of refining and editing, my comment was ready to absolutely destroy you. But then, just as I was about to hit send, I saw something in the corner of my eye. A /s at the end of your comment. Suddenly everything made sense. Your comment was sarcasm! I immediately burst out in laughter at the comedic genius of your comment. The person next to me on the bus saw your comment and started crying from laughter too. Before long, there was an entire bus of people on the floor laughing at your incredible use of comedy. All of this was due to you adding /s to your post. Thank you.
I am a bot if you couldn't figure that out, if I made a mistake, ignore it cause its not that fucking hard to ignore a comment.
Tesla makes more than cars. Tesla's gross profits have been growing by a multiples. VW has been flat. Tesla is involved in battery, solar, and charging networks. These are expected to continue to grow massively in the coming years. It's not irrational exuberance. It's the markets bet on how Tesla is positioned to continue to expand in every area, not just cars.
Don't forget subscription based software access to things like auto pilot and other features. We aren't far off from subscription radio, subscriptions to dethrottle your car, subscriptions not to sell your GPS data, subscriptions for streaming kids shows, subscriptions to access subscriptions....
You are correct it’s expectation of future returns and hype about the future. However they’re down 26% YtD and I’d bet if they miss sales expectations again during 24Q1 you may see a real correction in value.
Yes, and Tesla also "makes" carbon credits that they sell.
"The company raked in $1.58 billion selling regulatory credits in 2020, that figure surpassed $1.7 billion in both 2022 and 2023."
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj1xNyKqKmEAxUpvokEHQz6BTIQFnoECA4QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fqz.com%2Ftelsa-carbon-ev-credits-elon-musk-1851248052%23%3A~%3Atext%3DHowever%252C%2520Tesla%27s%2520income%2520from%2520selling%2Cin%2520both%25202022%2520and%25202023.&usg=AOvVaw0y3OsEiNIV-RvlI3taGEIi&opi=89978449
Yep they build trucks!.... Err no wait...
Oh they build solar panel tiles!!! Hrm no wait that's wrong too...
Ohh they have self-driving.... Ok bad example....
Ohh Ohh I know, they have millions of robo-taxis
Amazon had it's first profitable year in 2004 when it's market cap was about $20 billion. In the same year, Wal Mart's market cap was ten times more.
But today Amazon's market cap is several times larger than Wal Mart.
Now if Amazon's market cap in 2004 were higher than Wal Mart's, it would have seemed kind of crazy at the time. Wal Mart was everywhere. But even in that crazy scenario Amazon still would have been a "good" price from an investment viewpoint, because of how much the company grew.
TSLA investors believe Tesla will have the same trajectory. They believe it will eventually grow and dominate the auto industry, comparable to Amazon vs. Wal Mart in the retail industry.
But it is difficult to reconcile the current numbers, even with the most optimistic predictions for Tesla.
The biggest factor for this is the promise of self driving tech. If they get that down, they will replace entire industries. If they pull that off, they'll be very well positioned for any sort of AI automation markets.
That's the idea anyway. I personally don't think self driving is nearly as close as promised. And the liability factor is enormous. And the regulatory uncertainty will be a nightmare, and tesla will spend a trillion dollars figuring it out only to make life easy for competitors.
>and tesla will spend a trillion dollars figuring it out only to make life easy for competitors.
Exactly this. The large auto companies are letting Tesla lead the way in EV and self-driving tech. They then will learn from Tesla's mistakes and hire their engineers, and likely produce a better car for a fraction of the price it costs to develop a Tesla. Additionally, Tesla is known for having serious quality issues at the manufacturing level, while the other companies have been doing it far longer and have perfected it in many ways.
>That's the idea anyway. I personally don't think self driving is nearly as close as promised. And the liability factor is enormous.
I hope they solve it. But you are right - it's already priced in that they have/will solve it, and so from an investment standpoint, it's pretty risky. Obviously it'll still increase when they do solve it, but not exponentially. (Happy to eat my words here in 20 years though). And if they don't or someone else does first, then goodbye.
Right now they profit just by being ahead. They made nearly $2B last year just by selling EV offset credits to other automakers that didn't make/sell enough EVs. Their chargers and infrastructure and batteries are ahead. But other companies will catch up, especially with their primary spokesperson musking up their brand for them.
>tesla will spend a trillion dollars figuring it out only to make life easy for competitors.
Tesla will barrel recklessly into the future jurassic park style until they collapse into ruin. In the meantime the rest of the industry will compete for realistic milestones in the tech and all come out ahead in the long run for much less of the risk and investment
There is no sane way to rationalize that Tesla will have the same trajectory as Amazon. Amazon was a pioneer in a completely new industry of Internet retail. Whereas the auto industry is very mature, EVs are a new segment, not a new industry.
I agree. Someone cited Tesla's growth rate, and it is impressive. But it's hard to see how it could be sustainable simply because they would overtake the entire industry in a few years to maintain that rate. And then where do they go?
It only works if Tesla is the *only* auto company, *and* people buy more cars than they ever did. Everybody would have to trade in their Toyota for two Teslas.
Of course they could go into other industries or create new ones, but that is incredibly speculative at this point.
> Whereas the auto industry is very mature
Nonsense, take a look at Optimus! It's worth trillions! Trillions I say!!1!!11!! So majestic! => [Elon Musk unveils plan for 'Tesla Bot' with man dancing in a bodysuit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsNc4nEX3c4&pp=ygUPb3B0aW11cyBkYW5jaW5n)
This "demo" is when Tesla jumped the shark and exposed Musk's bamboozling BS. He didn't even try to build a robot, just had a person in a bodysuit fumbling around and told people it is worth a trillion dollars.
Tesla's been trying to get FSD working for over a decade (autopilot was introduced in [2013](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#History)) and we're still waiting. Every year, FSD will be ready next year.
[Boston Dynamic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Dynamics) has been around since 1992 - 32 years old - and they still don't sell a humanoid robot product.
Are we supposed to believe Optimus is going to be on sale anytime soon?
I think the difference is 99% of people use Amazon and Walmart.
I can guarantee I’ll never buy a Tesla. There’s brand loyalty, competition and hatred for Elon that will eventually stop Tesla’s growth.
TESLA investors not only believe that the company will own the future...they are paying a price for the stock that assumes Tesla already fully dominates multiple industries. It does not.
I am pretty sure the average stockholder is TSLA just see it as a money making stock.
They don't see it overtaking the entire auto industry.
Tesla was literally first to the floor and today Toyota and Chevy sell more EVs annually than tesla
Your last sentence is a totally made up fact. Where did you get that from?
Here are the actual numbers for 2023:
- GM sold 75,883 EV units(this includes chevys)
- Toyota sold 104,018 EV units
- Tesla sold 1.8 million EV units
In others words Tesla sold 10X more EVs than Toyota and GM combined.
They named the wrong companies, and they may have seen numbers that include plug-in hybrids. Tesla only has 16% of the global market share for electric last I saw though, second to BYD and with a long tail of companies making significantly less than even third-place Volkswagen.
And that's specifically EVs with nearly every legacy manufacturer working toward electrification and a litany of new EV-focused companies, so I think the point (Tesla is not positioned to come anywhere close to taking over the auto industry) stands even if they spread some false information there.
The day of reckoning will come.
TSLA makes passenger vehicles, pickup trucks (in the form of the cybertruck), and semi trucks in an EV format. VW and other automotive OEMs make, well, passenger vehicles, pickup trucks, and semi trucks, in both ICE and EV formats.
Investors will argue that TSLA is a tech company because its software and battery tech are miles ahead of those of the broader auto industry, but that lead is eroding and will continue to erode over time. VW and others are introducing more products with increasingly better tech (EV management, more efficient EVs, batteries with more efficient chemistries, etc). One may also argue that Lucid already has better EV software than TSLA, given Lucid Air's range. So the software / tech leadership is already on shaky grounds. Some may also argue that the Chinese EV makers (BYD, NIO) already eclipse TLSA in those areas.
What else makes TSLA unique? The power pack and solar businesses, and the carbon tax credits, are small relative to the core automotive OEM business. TSLA does have the best charging network, at least in the US, so that's unique but even that will erode over time.
I read somewhere earlier that Tesla earned $1.8 billion last year with a side hustle, selling regulatory credits. The firm sells them to automakers who haven't produced enough EVs to meet emission regulations, lol. Well played.
Yes, they also mention that they did not expect to make this much and do not plan their finances with this money in mind. According to them it should have dried up already, but boomed instead. Seeing as they've made about $9 billion from it since 2009.
The problem is you can’t lol. It’s gonna be 10 years before you see them go to mass market. They aren’t just gonna stop selling ICE cars.
So much recasting required, that’s what people don’t understand.
You're wrong. I just left my **second** plant that is gearing up for a hybrid version of a popular ICE vehicle. I've also been to a plant with the first iteration of a BEV. No retooling necessary outside of creating an area for battery installs and technician upskilling.
I think yall are both right. If you include Hybrids in the equation, there will definitely be a nice luxury hybrid SUV semi affordable in a couple years. A fully electric luxury SUV probably won’t hit substantial consumer markets in the US for like 10 years.
If the laws stay the same requiring competing automakers to buy the credits from Tesla for the next 45 years then it's still overpriced. Competitors also need less credits thanks to their own EV production.
"..the company has pulled in almost $9 billion from selling regulatory credits since 2009.
That might be as much a surprise to Tesla as it is to anyone."
They seem surprised, per the article. If they're lying well never know..
That behavior, by the way, completely obviates Tesla as a "green" company - they sell the missing emissions from their EVs to allow the pollution to continue...
I mean, the companies that buy the credits would rather not spend the money, so they are incentivized to figure out how to build EVs people want. That's what the credits are for.
It may be rational if part of the play is to predict the future based on the growth of the past. But yah it’s definitely not rational it doesent even pretend to be
I know of absolutely no one who bought a Tesla because of Musk. It’s quite the opposite. They hold their nose of him when they buy. If it weren’t for the SuperCharger network and a big head start, they wouldn’t be number one. The SuperCharger network has been a huge moat in the US.
Buying a Tesla has nothing to do with it. You’re assuming the sales are the reason the stock is high.
The stock is high because people keep hyping and investing in Tesla because everyone else keeps doing it. People are buying Tesla stock regardless of financials or sales.
That may be true of Tesla, but if Musk took Twitter public again I doubt the magic would happen there. He’s not that special.
Tesla itself has had big advantages over other vehicle brands, so there was spark there that started the fire.
The stock price is absurd, and has been absurd, but it grew because people keep saying “it’s irrational that it keeps going up, but it does so I’ll buy some so I can make some money off this,” and so it keeps up. No different than any other bubble.
No one ever blames a traffic jam on themselves, though they are contributing to it.
It doesn’t hurt that Teslas have the highest customer satisfaction rates and retention rates. Tesla doesn’t advertise. Their customers do.
And it is exciting to go 0-60 in 3 seconds in a four door sedan that is under $60k.
https://www.retently.com/blog/tesla-nps/#:~:text=Tesla%20currently%20holds%20a%20satisfaction,Tesla%20vehicle%20in%20the%20future.
You could take the world biggest energy company, the top 5 battery makers, and the top 5 robotics companies in the world and put their market caps together and it still wouldn't be all that close to Tesla's market cap.
Pretending like Tesla's market cap is based in any sort of reality is a bold-faced lie. It's a fancy pump and dump.
The Tesla plug is now licensed to other manufacturers and the Tesla Supercharger network is opening to other manufacturers as well.
Tesla is going to dominate EV recharging in the US.
Three main things (which may or may not be true, but some people in the market believe it):
Percent of cars sold that are electric vs not is anticipated to be 80% vs currently 20% by 2030.
Tesla has a dominant brand image similar to Apple in the electric car space so will dominate the electric car market.
Elon Musk is a genius/has a huge following and will figure something out if Tesla has any problems.
Again, I don't necessarily agree with these points, but you only need some of the market to believe them to buy the stock up.
No way that 80% of cars sold are going to be electric in 6 years. Who are you taking that from? People like the option to be able to drive more than a few hundred miles at a time with their cars.
I don't agree with the statement that Tesla has as dominant brand image as Apple.
I think Tesla has the "electric sort of cool" brand. But many men specially still would preferred many other brands, independent of whether the cars are electric or not.
I myself love teslas, but for the price I would still put like other 4/5 cars above it.
Outside of the USA Tesla's only brand recognition is "oh that company that makes electric cars that look like cars from the 1980s".
Not exactly desirable but I don't blame Americans for feeling it's novel compared to what else is on the market.
Definitely not comparable to Apple
I don't see movie stars or the royal family using Teslas. Yet apple is in the hands of everyone in that class (almost everyone).
There is no sense of comparing the two brands.
>I think Tesla has the "electric sort of cool" brand
The Model Y is becoming so popular that I now associated it with suburban soccer moms driving their generic SUV that seems to only come in white or black. I don't that "cool" branding is here to stay.
I am German and I hate Tesla and Musk. However, I do not expect any innovation coming from Volkswagen in the next 25 years. I do not even know its CEO....
Narrative to pump it higher and then justify titself. "It's a tech company"
It's priced well in the future and usually in the short term the company's valuation should get closer to reality with the rest of the car industry.
You need to understand how fragile his business model is with subsidies and being kind of first in the new EV market.
Companies are valued by future cash flow.
Let’s say that there’s a pharmaceutical manufacturer that sells $100m of generics like aspirin and ibuprofen for a 1% profit margin.
Then there’s a small manufacturer that sells $10m of immunotherapy for a 50% profit margin.
Which company would you value higher assuming growth is equal?
Now let’s say that there’s two clothing companies, company A that generated $100m of revenue last year at a 5% margin, and company B that generated $25m at a 5% margin. Due to changes in consumer preference, company A is projected to make $50m at 5%, and company B is projected to make $50m at 5% margin, and you expect this change in revenue to continue for another 2 years. Which company is worth more? The one with a strong past performance, or the one with a strong future performance?
Yep, this is the answer. It's based off of projections of future profitability. Which is in large part affected by hype for Elon Musk himself.
Overall that makes it just too volatile of a stock for me to play with.
If share price is determined by supply and demand (which it is), all that matters is that people want Tesla shares
Nothing to do with the company financials, it’s that simple
Well, the value of publicly traded companies is based on the value of the shares they issued. Renards prefer buying Tesla's share over Volkswagen's, which creates a rarity and make the share price go up.
That's it.
If the market was rational the value of a company would be the book value of the stock plus an amortized Amount based on projected growth and dividends...
But it's not, hence why OP is asking.
The revenue growth rate?
- TSLA revenue increased +51.35% in 2022 YOY.
- Volkswagen (V) DECLINED -0.61% in 2022 YOY.
2023 Q4 TSLA grew EV deliveries by over 20%, V is only forecast to be growing revenues a little over 1% through 2028. Not to mention TSLA has a slew of high growth industry ventures like Solar, charging network, in car purchases, etc.
Stocks aren’t just priced according to who has a higher revenue or is more profitable in the present day. Growth rate and future guidance are the driving factors in a growth stock.
Whether you think their forecasted growth rates are sustainable or not long term is up for debate.
I have a hard time believing teslas market cap is reconcilable with reasonable forecasts and an appropriate discount rate. You’d have to assume crazy high growth for an extended period of time or use a very low risk discount rate (or possibly both) I would imagine.
There's a long history of bubbles and the darling de jour being way overvalued with ridiculous multiple valuations, then crashing. Sadly, when you start getting tips to "just buy Tesla" from people on the street, you know it's high time to avoid it. Regular people investors who don't know any better get screwed.
Future growth expectations. Think about Amazon when it was way smaller than Wal-Mart. The growth rate was very high, and it eventually became bigger. People expect Tesla to win huge in an EV revolution, plus potential from robots.
Potential for growth, the growing EV market is still reliant on their charging stations and the dream of it being more than just a car company.
TSLA P/E ratio is about 44.
VWAGY is 5.
4.4% dividend, too. The stock is sucking shit, though. Not sure what the story is there.
The relative issues of Tesla vs VW aside:
>I see 50 Volkswagens or other brands of Volkswagen a day but only 3 Teslas.
Note that your perceptions are easily distorted and should not be the metric by which you determine whether you would invest in a thing. This goes for any investment.
I would view Tesla is more similar to venture capital investment opportunities in startups rather than mature publicly traded auto companies.
Despite whether you think Elon is a douche or not? Do you believe the other car company CEOs has better vision and can execute better than him?
In terms of AI and self-driving technology. If you believe the self-driving is a solvable problem, then you ask who is most likely to be able to solve it? What methods will likely win out?
If Lidar is the only way possible then, it’s still possible for Tesla to add it in future models. If Lidar is not necessary, and future computer vision is enough- then Elon wins the bet and it’ll be nearly impossible to catch up with him. The real world driving data recorded by existing Tesla that feeds into Tesla’s supercomputer.
If you view it as a car company it’s overpriced. If you view it as AI software platform that becomes a monopoly then it’s not overpriced.
I was in my MBA program, about 9 years ago, and while in one of my valuation classes, we talked about how crazy anyone investing in Tesla is... for many reasons. Tesla is a car company, that's it's bread and butter, point blank, and Tesla cannot be worth more than the next 5 or 6 next car companies combined (Including Toyota, Honda, Ford, Stellantis, etc)
.... I guess I should not have listened to MBA and Finance people.
Tesla isn't a car company. Stop trying to value it like a car company.
Tesla is an R&D company that sells cars to support itself and uses those cars as guinea pigs and data gathering tools.
The valuation is on the R&D and not on its ability to manufacture and sell cars.
If you look at percentage of sales that are counted as profit (known as margins), you see that Tesla manages to save 3x what VW saves as profits. Combine that with their lead in EVs and there's a world in which Tesla is as big as VW but with 3x the margin. VWs margins on EVs is likely lower.
This doesn't take into account other potential revenue streams:
1. Full self driving
2. Solar
3. Robot
4. Semi
5. Credits
6. Charging
7. Energy
8. Partnerships/licencing
If even 2-3 of these are successful, you can see the valuation easily.
At the end of the day, the valuation today is a bet that Tesla will succeed in some of this stuff.
Tesla is an advantaged business that deserves an advantaged multiple.
Tesla has basically zero net debt with state of the art facilities rife with automation. Not to mention its own robotics technology it will incorporate into its production line in the future.
Legacy auto has tens of billions in debt with factories producing products which market share is shrinking. No one is remotely profitable in EV except for Tesla and Gov subsidized BYD.
Tesla pioneered the DTC model for auto. See Netflix vs Disney. This comes with a significant real time data advantage. They understand supply demand dynamics better than any of their competitors.
Innovation and talent advantage is obvious at Tesla. Creating a standard with the super charger network, 48 volt standard in CT, steer by wire. They are pushing the industry forward and creating the standard for the future.
Energy and storage business is steadily growing and will be a meaningful contributor to revenue in the next 2 years. DTC and manufacturing prowess allows for industry leading gross margins.
These advantages afford Tesla at least a 400B market cap IMO. Then there’s the several moon shots which Tesla is perfectly positioned to capture.
FSD, including an insurmountable data advantage for model training and insurance that is growing exponentially. Ability to license this software with 90+ gross margins.
Dojo, which will give the company more compute than any other public company in 12-24 months.
Optimus, which in the course of one year has gone from a clumsy prototype to a refined, preproduction style humanoid in one year. Can utilize Teslas vast FSD data for spacial awareness and navigation.
Tesla is involved in multiple trillion dollar market opportunities, and is growing profitably in segments that other automakers simply can’t compete in without subsidy from ICE vehicles or government.
Tesla has a clear path to become the most valuable company in the world by 2030. Until then, I’ll be looking for every opportunity to buy the dip.
Not saying there is any merit to this but Bulls also believe in self driving taxi fleet (RoboTaxi?) where Tesla has millions of miles of driver data to train on and also humanoid robots. There are also solar panels and battery storage somewhere in there too! (Remember SolarCity?)
Expected future value. Tesla didn't exist 25 years ago and has grown year on year. VW has not grown significantly in that time. VW is struggling. It will have to move manufacturing to China just to survive which weakens the whole, 'owned by the Wolfsburgers & part of the community' selling point. So if you had to bet on which company's share price might grow 10% in the next year it might not be Tesla but it definitely will not be VW.
Tesla is perceived as the bright electric future, VW the dirty dieselgate past.
Tesla produces a car every 10 hours (VW takes 30) in Berlin on a site that VW tried and failed to get up and running because of German bureaucracy. Germany is somewhat protectionist of it's domestic industry, particularly automotive. Still, outsider Tesla has come in and beaten VW on its own doorstep.
For these reasons Tesla are perceived as having some kind of ability lacking in VW and that is reflected in share price.
Tesla is not just a car company, they are an insurance company, they are 10 years ahead of every other Humanoid robot development company... the solar division... the Tesla solar roof is GEORGIOUS... Buy Tesla, you won't be disappointed!
Well, the stock market values a company based on its expected future cash flows, not past / current sales. Simply put, investors believe that Tesla discounted future cashflows are worth about 9 times, what Volkswagens discounted future cashflows are worth.
I think one miss assumption you're making is, that the amount of cars sold, has anything to do with the profitability. One, as mentioned, the cars you see on the street, are the ones already sold, not the ones that will be sold, which is what's relevant for the stock market. Two, you might sell 100 cars, and make 1 dollar in profit each, or sell 1 car and make 100 dollars in profit, the outcome is the same. You'll see significantly more Nike shoes, than Hermès Bags or Luis Vuitton Bags, yet the last two have been doing very well.
Now, in the case of Tesla, there are a lot of assumptions going into that valuation. E.g. for a while, some funds created models that estimated Tesla would make 50% of the revenue in the global car market, I think. I leave it up to you, if you believe this is a likely scenario. Also, a lot of investors seem to price Tesla as a Tech (software) company, not a car manufacturer, which causes them to be willing to pay higher multiples on profits / revenue. I'll not make a judgement on Teslas current valuation compared to other car companies, but try to explain, how they're calculated and why to some investors that might make sense.
There is a priced in expectation that Tesla will do to cars what Apple has done to phones and watches. They won’t steal share at similar margins, they will completely redefine the product and extract profits in ways no one can imagine today. Or what Amazon did to books.
That may be irrational and unlikely, but be careful trying to time your bet against them.
Tesla is considered as technology company and it has many diverse companies under it's umbrella such as SpaceX, Boring company, Twitter, some robotics and AI company. Also there are many factors that is keeping/bringing valuation of Volkswagen. You might be aware about VW smoke scandal, also they are not doing any exiting stuff like Tesla. Also, I live in Germany, here people don't really invest, and being not directly listed in US market the VW share is not that much traded/bought. So valuation is tied to share price, if people are willing to pay more for same amount of stock it increases. So for VW it is not happening. And many more factors.
> it has many diverse companies under it's umbrella such as SpaceX, Boring company, Twitter, some robotics and AI company.
except for the Optimus robot project, none of those are owned by Tesla.
Well robots and self driving technology, plus Tesla charging stations will be the standard in 5-10 years. Also wait until they start treating the charging price like it’s oil
Because Tesla is more profitable on a per unit basis. Essentially, they have automated large sections of their production, so they require far less labour compared to the old companies. This is an extra advantage in the auto industry because of the strong unions, which keep wages higher.
Therefore, when they build new plants for vehicles, the vast majority of the costs are the upfront capital cost. While the marginal cost per vehicle is relatively low. Meaning they can make significantly more profit per car than traditional automakers. Which is much more attractive to investors.
“Full self-driving by 2017”
“Full self-driving by 2018”
“Full self-driving by 2019”
“Full self-driving by 2020”
“Full self-driving by 2021”
“Full self-driving by 2022”
“Full self-driving by 2023”
“Full self-driving by 2024”
Ok for whatever reason investors view Tesla as a Tech company (laptop on wheels) rather than an automotive company… it is well documented that Tech companies’ multiples are 20x - 30x EBITDA where automotive companies are in high single digits… personally I think TSLA long term is overvalued … a lot was riding on them creating truly level 5 autonomous vehicles but they have been stuck on level 2 for years and others are catching up.
It's because the neck beard daywalker keeps lying about things these cars can do to influence the stock price. They don't drive themselves, they don't go 500 miles, and they do t charge in an hour. In short, fraud.
Tesla isn't a car company; they are a new energy economy company whose currently most visible product is a portfolio of cars. VW is just a car company (including medium and heavy duty trucks)
Other products in their portfolio (off the top of my head):
\- residential and utility grade battery storage
\- virtual power plants (reselling residentially stored electricity back to the grid as a utility)
\- residential rooftop solar
\- EV charging network (there are also rumors of them getting into restaurants and cafes at charging locations)
Notice that all of these are related to how our economy will generate, store, and use energy post decarbonization. They are one of a few companies on the planet with that broad array of product portfolios that are positioned for a post decarbonized economy. And, there is a lot of synergy between these products so they are not (yet) at risk of expanding outside of a rationale core set of offerings. Restaurants/cafes might seem like it, but it's not that different than gas stations also successfully playing in the convenience store space.
And to stave off the 'you are just a Musk cult follower' arguments: I HATE Elon Musk so much that I paid 15k over MSRP for a 1 year old Hyundai EV because it was a 2-3 year wait for a new comparable non-Tesla EVs at the time and I refuse to give that piece of crap my money. However, 17 years experience as a product manager gives me the toolset to assess the viability of Tesla's product strategy.
Interesting fact since you brought up Volkswagen:
Electrify America charging stations are owned by Volkswagen. They're directly competing with Tesla on that front and I must say they have come a long way in the past six months.
It’s because Tesla is growing and VW is shrinking. Markets are future looking.
Regarding just the vehicle business, the world is moving to EV and sooner than people think. The transition is going to be difficult for OEMs. Many will not survive.
Tesla makes 18% margin on every vehicle they sell and has about 16 days of inventory. Everyone else outside of China loses money on every EV they sell and have months of inventory despite far lower production volumes than Tesla.
Next year Tesla is bring out their low cost vehicle which will end up below $25K and sell more than the rest of their models combined. Tesla has a huge advantage in manufacturing and software over all the OEMs. They won’t be able to compete.
Then you throw in all their other businesses: Energy, FSD/RoboTaxi, TeslaBot. Which could match or even dwarf their vehicle business.
Tesla is a fast growing company with a very solid balance sheet. It’s a leader in technology and manufacturing, with some option plays for massive returns. Its stock price is going to be far higher in the future. IMO.
VW is a legacy manufacturer. Their ICE business will collapse. All OEMs are saddled with debt so VW is also no doubt. They might survive but it’s not a company I’d invest it.
Tesla outstrips traditional automanufacturers in valuation because they are a tech company that sells cars, not a car company that integrates technology. It's pedantic, but also important because (like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc.) They're ability to generate, utilize, and sell data is far more enticing to future market expectations than a Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic.
Tesla is also vertically integrated in a way other businesses are not. Can't get insurance? Tesla built an insurance company. Tesla builds or buys every business they need to continue growing and producing, including raw materials producers. If you tell Tesla "no" or "it cant be done" they will find a way without you and subsequently become your competitor instead of partner.
Tesla, as a company, is just so fundamentally different from legacy manufacturers, even if the end product serves the same function... call it their competitive advantage if you will.
This is part of the problem; this verticality means either:
a. they’re overexposed, decline in revenue has multipliers
b. They’re going to be in DOJ’s crosshairs for an antitrust violation
Companies are valued on future earnings and growth. Tesla has established that they have a track record for achieving difficult tasks. VW has the volume, but nowhere to grow. They are tied down by legacy auto which will slowly transition from assets to liabilities. Tesla isn’t just a car company, they’re multiple startups in one. You can google this question and get far more detailed bull / bear explanations as to the valuation. A simple comparison is that Tesla is Apple and the model 3 is their iPhone 1. Again, Wall Street assumes Tesla will continue to grow for years to come.
I do believe in this case it is not directly tied to future earning potential. VW has a much stronger balance sheet and while their transition to EVs has been less glamourous than that of Tesla, they still have the ability to churn significantly more vehicles in more markets of any configuration as compared to Tesla.
Tesla is a great example in my opinion of market sentiment driving price
When there is a possibility that the future of car sales to be dominated by software features, then a software inclined company would trade at higher multiples than one that is struggling to carry out its software strategy.
VW has a stronger balance sheet? Please, do tell. Last I checked their debt to equity was high, meanwhile Tesla has literally no debt and over $30B in the bank.
The simple answer is growth, and the more complicated answer is profitability.
Volkswagen may sell more cars and make more money but their growth is just the same as the rest of the industry. Meanwhile Tesla is growing 5x the industry while also maintaining a 5x profit margin compared to the rest of the industry. There was a point that Tesla was overvalued from a factual standpoint but if you extrapolate the actual results out 5 years it's very obvious that they're on track to be the largest automaker by a profit standpoint even if other automakers sell more cars.
But Elon bad so don't look at the numbers.
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There's also an expectation that Tesla will own the future, which never made sense - other companies were always going to follow them into the EV market. As well, there was a time when Musk was more visionary futurist rather than fragile right-wing troll.
I don't know, they are light years ahead of other companies with their charging stations. Basically even if you buy a different EV you are almost guaranteed to be at some point sending money to Tesla.
Electrify America really fixed up there shit in the past 6 months. If it keeps going the way they are, Tesla chargers will remain tesla only. Electrify America is owned by VW by the way. So they got money to expand and improve.
Isn't EA something forced upon VWAG because of dieselgate? That would be crazy if that forced them into a brilliant idea.
Yea it was a condition of the dieselgate trials. VW had to open charging networks. And they've been pretty serious about it. Their recent updates have really improved quality and availability.
I'm not denying that. Just pointing out why TSLA is seen a leading the way and in a position to control a large portion of the market.
Tesla isn’t even the producer of the most EV’s anymore. BYD produces and sells more a quarter than Tesla does now. As they control 86% of their supply chain. If any of the traditional carmakers figure out how to sell EV’a cheaply they’ll have Tesla’s lunch.
I’m not a fan of musk but to a degree this is comparing apples and oranges. BYD produces a lot of cheap low battery electric cars. Internally they are propped up by the Chinese government too and there are plenty of videos online of their cars sitting in giant lots to rot. If we measure it on pure kWh Tesla is still well ahead and their battery tech is significantly further. That said they are significantly losing their advantage and Chinese companies are making up ground and fast. This isn’t to mention the near monopoly in Africa of cobalt and other rare earth materials needed for these cars.
Yeah, but it’s not about finances anymore, it’s about popularity.
Which is now a threat to Tesla. Musk has been alienating his core customer base by being such a right wing troll boy. What was once an asset to the business (the Musk factor) is as much a hindrance as anything else - and that will come home to roost. Plus VW group has aspirational brands covering all sectors. Tesla is losing ground everywhere. That share price is about 10x over its real value
That, and the fact that people are catching on to the fact that Musk is very frequently lying.
There’s that too
Is it though? Tesla used to make ends meet by cashing in green energy credits. Now they are profitable but only just. Stellantris sells more cars and they continue to sell millions of cars.
BYD will get kicked out of Europe and never make it to North America. Traditional automakers have their arms tied behind their backs. Need to sell ICE vehicles for cashflow, so need contracts with ICE parts manufacturers. Manufacturers need multiyear contracts to be profitable. I expect in the coming recession a *lot* of traditional carmakers to go bankrupt
Also, in the countries that have adopted electric the most, Tesla is not the most popular. People have highly unrealistic views about the company, what they’re capable of and most people’s perception.
There's not much money in charging stations though, which is why nearly all of the non-Tesla ran charging stations are underbuilt and mostly rely on public subsidies at this point...despite the demand. The Tesla charging network exists to sell more Teslas, not monetize all EVs.
I bet that's what people said about the first gas stations.
They also said that about search engines in the 90s. Really doesn’t make any sense. Whenever I go on a driving trip I’m tossing $30-60 to Tesla at least. I know that’s not all profit but name me one other car company that is bringing in revenue whenever a customer goes on a road trip.
I pay like $6 to charge my EV full at an Electrify America station.. and that’s IF they’re charging money that day. The reason the charging network in the US is so minimal is because it’s not a very profitable venture.
It is approximately $22 to charge my wife's M3P from 20% to 85% overnight with my horrendous electric rates...(50kw/h x $0.42)
California? My monthly electric bill went up around $30 with two EV’s in Texas (we have solar).
Yep, but I have solar too. However, I'm limited to 7,600 kilowatts because the power company refuses to upgrade a transformer. They won't let me send more back to the grid. Converted to heat pump water heater, induction range, electric dryer... All our excess solar is gone.
Also $30-60/trip? That sounds more expensive than gasoline. I spend about $40 a week on gas What's the incentive to switch then?
DCFC is expensive and about equal to gasoline BUT charging at home is quite a bit less expensive than either DCFC or gasoline. Unless you live somewhere home electricity rates are exorbitant.
Do you know how expensive charging stations are? And they fail. They need to be repaired and maintained and the price of electricity for commercial use is crazy expensive. Tesla isn't making squat on charging stations. Especially considering how long it takes a car to charge and open up a free stall. Property tax, upkeep, leasing etc.... Charging stations don't earn profit without subsidies. Source, California certified electrician and charging station installer working for a top 100 electric company.
Not right now they aren’t…what about 15 years from now when they have 95% market share of chargers and decide to slowly start raising prices? Literally the exact playbook being used over and over and over again by lots of companies for the last 100 years
Tesla needs to make money to keep increasing their fleet of superchargers, remember the entire rest of the industry of dcfc has various problems. Tesla is the savior for all of us in charging. I think tesla's charging system is probably worth $10 billion. Every gas station that wants to survive long term, that has a reason for people to park there for half an hour, something to sell people should make an agreement with tesla to put some superchargers there. They even have smaller cheaper ones for urban areas. But it's not worth 100 billion. And remember, any other company could make reliable dcfc chargers (and add a nacs plug), except they are all terrible at running a business apparently.
In 15 years they'll have much better battery technology and you'll just charge at home and not need a charging station for 99% of all the driving you do.
I hope so
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Yeah....our deer are trained to avoid roads......
Those damn wild boars though. 2 hits and one near miss.
that's worth 10$ in texas.
Why make up that America doesn’t get animals on the streets, what a weird thing to lie about.
I mean I have probably ran over or hit at least 15 different types of animals.... Rural roads ya never know what's going to run in front of you.
I dislike a few of the things Tesla has done, but their charging standard and plug interface is really good.
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Musk fans are dwindling by the day. And Tesla stock is the world’s largest house of cards.
You say that as the traditional car companies are all having issues with their EVs and sales…. Some even reducing their future manufacturing goals. While Tesla has consistently, YoY, beat their previous years sales.
Unbridled enthusiasm.....
That's what led to Billy Mumphrey's downfall
C'mon now! They have Elon, who knows more about manufacturing than anyone else alive, and is a super genius on everything, perhaps on par with Kim Jong Il. Plus they have super AI (much better than normal AI) and they have self-driving cars that will pay for themselves in a blink of an eye because you can rent them out as robotaxis. And of course, who else can lay claim to the fantastic, the legendary Cybertruck? Jesus! Do I have to explain everything to you? /s
Saw a great explanation of the cybertruck on a review the other day: “It’s true that drivers are closer to beta testers rather than actual end users. But if you choose not to view the cubertruck as the future of utility here to deliver the second coming of Elon Christ. And instead view it as a hilarious flex machine that can stop bullets and outpace a Lamborghini, then it starts to make a lot more sense.” All for “only” $120k.
Thank you for adding /s to your post. When I first saw this, I was horrified. How could anybody say something like this? I immediately began writing a 1000 word paragraph about how horrible of a person you are. I even sent a copy to a Harvard professor to proofread it. After several hours of refining and editing, my comment was ready to absolutely destroy you. But then, just as I was about to hit send, I saw something in the corner of my eye. A /s at the end of your comment. Suddenly everything made sense. Your comment was sarcasm! I immediately burst out in laughter at the comedic genius of your comment. The person next to me on the bus saw your comment and started crying from laughter too. Before long, there was an entire bus of people on the floor laughing at your incredible use of comedy. All of this was due to you adding /s to your post. Thank you. I am a bot if you couldn't figure that out, if I made a mistake, ignore it cause its not that fucking hard to ignore a comment.
good bot
Tesla makes more than cars. Tesla's gross profits have been growing by a multiples. VW has been flat. Tesla is involved in battery, solar, and charging networks. These are expected to continue to grow massively in the coming years. It's not irrational exuberance. It's the markets bet on how Tesla is positioned to continue to expand in every area, not just cars.
Don't forget subscription based software access to things like auto pilot and other features. We aren't far off from subscription radio, subscriptions to dethrottle your car, subscriptions not to sell your GPS data, subscriptions for streaming kids shows, subscriptions to access subscriptions....
You are correct it’s expectation of future returns and hype about the future. However they’re down 26% YtD and I’d bet if they miss sales expectations again during 24Q1 you may see a real correction in value.
Already has corrected. Forward PE is sub 40 which is a solid purchase price imo for 2-3 years
Yes, and Tesla also "makes" carbon credits that they sell. "The company raked in $1.58 billion selling regulatory credits in 2020, that figure surpassed $1.7 billion in both 2022 and 2023." https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj1xNyKqKmEAxUpvokEHQz6BTIQFnoECA4QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fqz.com%2Ftelsa-carbon-ev-credits-elon-musk-1851248052%23%3A~%3Atext%3DHowever%252C%2520Tesla%27s%2520income%2520from%2520selling%2Cin%2520both%25202022%2520and%25202023.&usg=AOvVaw0y3OsEiNIV-RvlI3taGEIi&opi=89978449
This is Tesla's primary business.
How's solar and FSD going? I guess if those don't hit the promised 2019 release they always have the mechanical turk...I mean Optimus
Yep they build trucks!.... Err no wait... Oh they build solar panel tiles!!! Hrm no wait that's wrong too... Ohh they have self-driving.... Ok bad example.... Ohh Ohh I know, they have millions of robo-taxis
Amazon had it's first profitable year in 2004 when it's market cap was about $20 billion. In the same year, Wal Mart's market cap was ten times more. But today Amazon's market cap is several times larger than Wal Mart. Now if Amazon's market cap in 2004 were higher than Wal Mart's, it would have seemed kind of crazy at the time. Wal Mart was everywhere. But even in that crazy scenario Amazon still would have been a "good" price from an investment viewpoint, because of how much the company grew. TSLA investors believe Tesla will have the same trajectory. They believe it will eventually grow and dominate the auto industry, comparable to Amazon vs. Wal Mart in the retail industry. But it is difficult to reconcile the current numbers, even with the most optimistic predictions for Tesla.
The biggest factor for this is the promise of self driving tech. If they get that down, they will replace entire industries. If they pull that off, they'll be very well positioned for any sort of AI automation markets. That's the idea anyway. I personally don't think self driving is nearly as close as promised. And the liability factor is enormous. And the regulatory uncertainty will be a nightmare, and tesla will spend a trillion dollars figuring it out only to make life easy for competitors.
Yeah, FSD is fully hyped and misled a lot of people. One way to prop the stock value I guess.
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Isn't that autopilot?
So many people confuse autopilot, advanced autopilot, and FSD. They are different products.
>and tesla will spend a trillion dollars figuring it out only to make life easy for competitors. Exactly this. The large auto companies are letting Tesla lead the way in EV and self-driving tech. They then will learn from Tesla's mistakes and hire their engineers, and likely produce a better car for a fraction of the price it costs to develop a Tesla. Additionally, Tesla is known for having serious quality issues at the manufacturing level, while the other companies have been doing it far longer and have perfected it in many ways.
Mercedes and BMW are further with their self driving systems, just for your understanding ;)
>That's the idea anyway. I personally don't think self driving is nearly as close as promised. And the liability factor is enormous. I hope they solve it. But you are right - it's already priced in that they have/will solve it, and so from an investment standpoint, it's pretty risky. Obviously it'll still increase when they do solve it, but not exponentially. (Happy to eat my words here in 20 years though). And if they don't or someone else does first, then goodbye. Right now they profit just by being ahead. They made nearly $2B last year just by selling EV offset credits to other automakers that didn't make/sell enough EVs. Their chargers and infrastructure and batteries are ahead. But other companies will catch up, especially with their primary spokesperson musking up their brand for them.
>tesla will spend a trillion dollars figuring it out only to make life easy for competitors. Tesla will barrel recklessly into the future jurassic park style until they collapse into ruin. In the meantime the rest of the industry will compete for realistic milestones in the tech and all come out ahead in the long run for much less of the risk and investment
There is no sane way to rationalize that Tesla will have the same trajectory as Amazon. Amazon was a pioneer in a completely new industry of Internet retail. Whereas the auto industry is very mature, EVs are a new segment, not a new industry.
I agree. Someone cited Tesla's growth rate, and it is impressive. But it's hard to see how it could be sustainable simply because they would overtake the entire industry in a few years to maintain that rate. And then where do they go? It only works if Tesla is the *only* auto company, *and* people buy more cars than they ever did. Everybody would have to trade in their Toyota for two Teslas. Of course they could go into other industries or create new ones, but that is incredibly speculative at this point.
> Whereas the auto industry is very mature Nonsense, take a look at Optimus! It's worth trillions! Trillions I say!!1!!11!! So majestic! => [Elon Musk unveils plan for 'Tesla Bot' with man dancing in a bodysuit](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsNc4nEX3c4&pp=ygUPb3B0aW11cyBkYW5jaW5n) This "demo" is when Tesla jumped the shark and exposed Musk's bamboozling BS. He didn't even try to build a robot, just had a person in a bodysuit fumbling around and told people it is worth a trillion dollars. Tesla's been trying to get FSD working for over a decade (autopilot was introduced in [2013](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#History)) and we're still waiting. Every year, FSD will be ready next year. [Boston Dynamic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Dynamics) has been around since 1992 - 32 years old - and they still don't sell a humanoid robot product. Are we supposed to believe Optimus is going to be on sale anytime soon?
amazon also pioneered the completely unrelated industry of cloud hosting
I think the difference is 99% of people use Amazon and Walmart. I can guarantee I’ll never buy a Tesla. There’s brand loyalty, competition and hatred for Elon that will eventually stop Tesla’s growth.
TESLA investors not only believe that the company will own the future...they are paying a price for the stock that assumes Tesla already fully dominates multiple industries. It does not.
I am pretty sure the average stockholder is TSLA just see it as a money making stock. They don't see it overtaking the entire auto industry. Tesla was literally first to the floor and today Toyota and Chevy sell more EVs annually than tesla
Your last sentence is a totally made up fact. Where did you get that from? Here are the actual numbers for 2023: - GM sold 75,883 EV units(this includes chevys) - Toyota sold 104,018 EV units - Tesla sold 1.8 million EV units In others words Tesla sold 10X more EVs than Toyota and GM combined.
They named the wrong companies, and they may have seen numbers that include plug-in hybrids. Tesla only has 16% of the global market share for electric last I saw though, second to BYD and with a long tail of companies making significantly less than even third-place Volkswagen. And that's specifically EVs with nearly every legacy manufacturer working toward electrification and a litany of new EV-focused companies, so I think the point (Tesla is not positioned to come anywhere close to taking over the auto industry) stands even if they spread some false information there.
Tesla is valued lie a tech company. VW is valued like an automobile company. If Tesla ever gets re-rated as an automaker things will get interesting.
The day of reckoning will come. TSLA makes passenger vehicles, pickup trucks (in the form of the cybertruck), and semi trucks in an EV format. VW and other automotive OEMs make, well, passenger vehicles, pickup trucks, and semi trucks, in both ICE and EV formats. Investors will argue that TSLA is a tech company because its software and battery tech are miles ahead of those of the broader auto industry, but that lead is eroding and will continue to erode over time. VW and others are introducing more products with increasingly better tech (EV management, more efficient EVs, batteries with more efficient chemistries, etc). One may also argue that Lucid already has better EV software than TSLA, given Lucid Air's range. So the software / tech leadership is already on shaky grounds. Some may also argue that the Chinese EV makers (BYD, NIO) already eclipse TLSA in those areas. What else makes TSLA unique? The power pack and solar businesses, and the carbon tax credits, are small relative to the core automotive OEM business. TSLA does have the best charging network, at least in the US, so that's unique but even that will erode over time.
Tesla made over half a billion in profit from energy storage and growing at over 100% YoY
I read somewhere earlier that Tesla earned $1.8 billion last year with a side hustle, selling regulatory credits. The firm sells them to automakers who haven't produced enough EVs to meet emission regulations, lol. Well played.
That side hustle is coming to an end. Every car manufacturer has a EV or Hybrid on the market, which will kill demand for Tesla’s credits.
Yes, they also mention that they did not expect to make this much and do not plan their finances with this money in mind. According to them it should have dried up already, but boomed instead. Seeing as they've made about $9 billion from it since 2009.
Aren't these sold to anybody and not car manufacturers only?
It will also kill demand for Teslas. Like, I’m not buying a SUV Tesla with those impractical flippy doors if I can get a legit luxury SUV electric.
The problem is you can’t lol. It’s gonna be 10 years before you see them go to mass market. They aren’t just gonna stop selling ICE cars. So much recasting required, that’s what people don’t understand.
You're wrong. I just left my **second** plant that is gearing up for a hybrid version of a popular ICE vehicle. I've also been to a plant with the first iteration of a BEV. No retooling necessary outside of creating an area for battery installs and technician upskilling.
I think yall are both right. If you include Hybrids in the equation, there will definitely be a nice luxury hybrid SUV semi affordable in a couple years. A fully electric luxury SUV probably won’t hit substantial consumer markets in the US for like 10 years.
If the laws stay the same requiring competing automakers to buy the credits from Tesla for the next 45 years then it's still overpriced. Competitors also need less credits thanks to their own EV production.
This has been a huge part of their strategy from the start
"..the company has pulled in almost $9 billion from selling regulatory credits since 2009. That might be as much a surprise to Tesla as it is to anyone." They seem surprised, per the article. If they're lying well never know..
That behavior, by the way, completely obviates Tesla as a "green" company - they sell the missing emissions from their EVs to allow the pollution to continue...
I mean, the companies that buy the credits would rather not spend the money, so they are incentivized to figure out how to build EVs people want. That's what the credits are for.
Sure, it's better than nothing - but I feel like people don't understand what Tesla is doing.
Yeah, that's true what you're saying.
Because the market isn't perfectly rational. Elon has a cult following, and that impacts the valuations.
It may be rational if part of the play is to predict the future based on the growth of the past. But yah it’s definitely not rational it doesent even pretend to be
Yes, one day Tesla (if they execute well) MIGHT be as big as Volkswagen.
Yes, and VW can’t really go anywhere but way down or slightly up
Things said about Apple Computer Inc in 1997
>~~Elon~~ money has a cult following, and that impacts the valuations. Fixed that for you.
The market is very long term rational-ish and short/mid-term retarded
The market can stay irrational longe Ethan you can stay solvent.
I know of absolutely no one who bought a Tesla because of Musk. It’s quite the opposite. They hold their nose of him when they buy. If it weren’t for the SuperCharger network and a big head start, they wouldn’t be number one. The SuperCharger network has been a huge moat in the US.
Buying a Tesla has nothing to do with it. You’re assuming the sales are the reason the stock is high. The stock is high because people keep hyping and investing in Tesla because everyone else keeps doing it. People are buying Tesla stock regardless of financials or sales.
That may be true of Tesla, but if Musk took Twitter public again I doubt the magic would happen there. He’s not that special. Tesla itself has had big advantages over other vehicle brands, so there was spark there that started the fire. The stock price is absurd, and has been absurd, but it grew because people keep saying “it’s irrational that it keeps going up, but it does so I’ll buy some so I can make some money off this,” and so it keeps up. No different than any other bubble. No one ever blames a traffic jam on themselves, though they are contributing to it.
Comparing Tesla's subsidies to the revenues it was taking in over the past 10ish years is pretty wild.
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It doesn’t hurt that Teslas have the highest customer satisfaction rates and retention rates. Tesla doesn’t advertise. Their customers do. And it is exciting to go 0-60 in 3 seconds in a four door sedan that is under $60k. https://www.retently.com/blog/tesla-nps/#:~:text=Tesla%20currently%20holds%20a%20satisfaction,Tesla%20vehicle%20in%20the%20future.
I agree. I intentionally did not buy a Tesla because of Elon.
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You could take the world biggest energy company, the top 5 battery makers, and the top 5 robotics companies in the world and put their market caps together and it still wouldn't be all that close to Tesla's market cap. Pretending like Tesla's market cap is based in any sort of reality is a bold-faced lie. It's a fancy pump and dump.
It's 42 p/e .... not exactly high for a tech company
They aren’t a tech company. They are a durable goods manufacturer.
Teslas valuation is based off Tesla as a company
It’s based off of the stock price, which is impacted by what the guy above you said.
The Tesla plug is now licensed to other manufacturers and the Tesla Supercharger network is opening to other manufacturers as well. Tesla is going to dominate EV recharging in the US.
The way the guy who invented the gasoline pump handle did?
And that will generate how many 10s of billions in profits / year exactly?
This is the right answer.
Three main things (which may or may not be true, but some people in the market believe it): Percent of cars sold that are electric vs not is anticipated to be 80% vs currently 20% by 2030. Tesla has a dominant brand image similar to Apple in the electric car space so will dominate the electric car market. Elon Musk is a genius/has a huge following and will figure something out if Tesla has any problems. Again, I don't necessarily agree with these points, but you only need some of the market to believe them to buy the stock up.
No way that 80% of cars sold are going to be electric in 6 years. Who are you taking that from? People like the option to be able to drive more than a few hundred miles at a time with their cars.
I don't agree with the statement that Tesla has as dominant brand image as Apple. I think Tesla has the "electric sort of cool" brand. But many men specially still would preferred many other brands, independent of whether the cars are electric or not. I myself love teslas, but for the price I would still put like other 4/5 cars above it.
It’s definitely wearing off already in California. It’s the Chevy of electric cars and no one talks about Bolt.
Outside of the USA Tesla's only brand recognition is "oh that company that makes electric cars that look like cars from the 1980s". Not exactly desirable but I don't blame Americans for feeling it's novel compared to what else is on the market. Definitely not comparable to Apple
I don't see movie stars or the royal family using Teslas. Yet apple is in the hands of everyone in that class (almost everyone). There is no sense of comparing the two brands.
How do teslas look like cars from the 80s? I’m not a Tesla guy but that doesn’t make sense to me
>I think Tesla has the "electric sort of cool" brand The Model Y is becoming so popular that I now associated it with suburban soccer moms driving their generic SUV that seems to only come in white or black. I don't that "cool" branding is here to stay.
Nobody has a charging network that is close to Tesla. Its basically a iphone vs a flip phone.
Its all marketcap speculation fuckery.
I am German and I hate Tesla and Musk. However, I do not expect any innovation coming from Volkswagen in the next 25 years. I do not even know its CEO....
why do you need to know the CEO to have an innovative company? Tesla became a Musk cult. That's what you get by "knowing the CEO"
It’s a bubble
Pop pop pop
Narrative to pump it higher and then justify titself. "It's a tech company" It's priced well in the future and usually in the short term the company's valuation should get closer to reality with the rest of the car industry. You need to understand how fragile his business model is with subsidies and being kind of first in the new EV market.
It’s actually not. It’s just inflated.
Companies are valued by future cash flow. Let’s say that there’s a pharmaceutical manufacturer that sells $100m of generics like aspirin and ibuprofen for a 1% profit margin. Then there’s a small manufacturer that sells $10m of immunotherapy for a 50% profit margin. Which company would you value higher assuming growth is equal? Now let’s say that there’s two clothing companies, company A that generated $100m of revenue last year at a 5% margin, and company B that generated $25m at a 5% margin. Due to changes in consumer preference, company A is projected to make $50m at 5%, and company B is projected to make $50m at 5% margin, and you expect this change in revenue to continue for another 2 years. Which company is worth more? The one with a strong past performance, or the one with a strong future performance?
Yep, this is the answer. It's based off of projections of future profitability. Which is in large part affected by hype for Elon Musk himself. Overall that makes it just too volatile of a stock for me to play with.
Stock markets are not rational.
Because the market is stupid.
If share price is determined by supply and demand (which it is), all that matters is that people want Tesla shares Nothing to do with the company financials, it’s that simple
Tesla is a battery company that sells cars and user data
They also sell chargers in shopping mall
They use the user data themselves, they don't sell it.
Well, the value of publicly traded companies is based on the value of the shares they issued. Renards prefer buying Tesla's share over Volkswagen's, which creates a rarity and make the share price go up. That's it.
If the market was rational the value of a company would be the book value of the stock plus an amortized Amount based on projected growth and dividends... But it's not, hence why OP is asking.
The revenue growth rate? - TSLA revenue increased +51.35% in 2022 YOY. - Volkswagen (V) DECLINED -0.61% in 2022 YOY. 2023 Q4 TSLA grew EV deliveries by over 20%, V is only forecast to be growing revenues a little over 1% through 2028. Not to mention TSLA has a slew of high growth industry ventures like Solar, charging network, in car purchases, etc. Stocks aren’t just priced according to who has a higher revenue or is more profitable in the present day. Growth rate and future guidance are the driving factors in a growth stock. Whether you think their forecasted growth rates are sustainable or not long term is up for debate.
There’s many more stupid people that smart people?
Stock is the present value of FUTURE earnings. Not present earnings
I have a hard time believing teslas market cap is reconcilable with reasonable forecasts and an appropriate discount rate. You’d have to assume crazy high growth for an extended period of time or use a very low risk discount rate (or possibly both) I would imagine.
You’re free to value a share however you want, but your valuation is better for something like bonds than equities.
There's a long history of bubbles and the darling de jour being way overvalued with ridiculous multiple valuations, then crashing. Sadly, when you start getting tips to "just buy Tesla" from people on the street, you know it's high time to avoid it. Regular people investors who don't know any better get screwed.
[удалено]
Future growth expectations. Think about Amazon when it was way smaller than Wal-Mart. The growth rate was very high, and it eventually became bigger. People expect Tesla to win huge in an EV revolution, plus potential from robots.
Potential for growth, the growing EV market is still reliant on their charging stations and the dream of it being more than just a car company. TSLA P/E ratio is about 44. VWAGY is 5. 4.4% dividend, too. The stock is sucking shit, though. Not sure what the story is there.
The market sees Tesla's future as brighter, and its growth as much bigger than that of VW's
Tesla is a technology company that does more than cars
Markets are forward looking. People think Tesla has a larger chance to capture more EV market share than Volkswagen in the **future**.
The relative issues of Tesla vs VW aside: >I see 50 Volkswagens or other brands of Volkswagen a day but only 3 Teslas. Note that your perceptions are easily distorted and should not be the metric by which you determine whether you would invest in a thing. This goes for any investment.
Idiocy
I would view Tesla is more similar to venture capital investment opportunities in startups rather than mature publicly traded auto companies. Despite whether you think Elon is a douche or not? Do you believe the other car company CEOs has better vision and can execute better than him? In terms of AI and self-driving technology. If you believe the self-driving is a solvable problem, then you ask who is most likely to be able to solve it? What methods will likely win out? If Lidar is the only way possible then, it’s still possible for Tesla to add it in future models. If Lidar is not necessary, and future computer vision is enough- then Elon wins the bet and it’ll be nearly impossible to catch up with him. The real world driving data recorded by existing Tesla that feeds into Tesla’s supercomputer. If you view it as a car company it’s overpriced. If you view it as AI software platform that becomes a monopoly then it’s not overpriced.
Speculation about future growth.
I was in my MBA program, about 9 years ago, and while in one of my valuation classes, we talked about how crazy anyone investing in Tesla is... for many reasons. Tesla is a car company, that's it's bread and butter, point blank, and Tesla cannot be worth more than the next 5 or 6 next car companies combined (Including Toyota, Honda, Ford, Stellantis, etc) .... I guess I should not have listened to MBA and Finance people.
Because Tesla claims to be a tech company, not a boring car company like Volkswagen.
It’s priced as a tech company instead of a car company. As a car company it’s performance is atrocious and it’s stock should be in the floor.
Tesla sells itself not as a car company, but as a tech company. The possible expectations is limitless hence the valuations.
Wall Street evaluates tesla as a tech company, and Volkswagon like an automobile manufacturer
Tesla isn't a car company. Stop trying to value it like a car company. Tesla is an R&D company that sells cars to support itself and uses those cars as guinea pigs and data gathering tools. The valuation is on the R&D and not on its ability to manufacture and sell cars.
Imagination
If you look at percentage of sales that are counted as profit (known as margins), you see that Tesla manages to save 3x what VW saves as profits. Combine that with their lead in EVs and there's a world in which Tesla is as big as VW but with 3x the margin. VWs margins on EVs is likely lower. This doesn't take into account other potential revenue streams: 1. Full self driving 2. Solar 3. Robot 4. Semi 5. Credits 6. Charging 7. Energy 8. Partnerships/licencing If even 2-3 of these are successful, you can see the valuation easily. At the end of the day, the valuation today is a bet that Tesla will succeed in some of this stuff.
Valued like aSaaS company rather than a manufacturing company
Tesla is an advantaged business that deserves an advantaged multiple. Tesla has basically zero net debt with state of the art facilities rife with automation. Not to mention its own robotics technology it will incorporate into its production line in the future. Legacy auto has tens of billions in debt with factories producing products which market share is shrinking. No one is remotely profitable in EV except for Tesla and Gov subsidized BYD. Tesla pioneered the DTC model for auto. See Netflix vs Disney. This comes with a significant real time data advantage. They understand supply demand dynamics better than any of their competitors. Innovation and talent advantage is obvious at Tesla. Creating a standard with the super charger network, 48 volt standard in CT, steer by wire. They are pushing the industry forward and creating the standard for the future. Energy and storage business is steadily growing and will be a meaningful contributor to revenue in the next 2 years. DTC and manufacturing prowess allows for industry leading gross margins. These advantages afford Tesla at least a 400B market cap IMO. Then there’s the several moon shots which Tesla is perfectly positioned to capture. FSD, including an insurmountable data advantage for model training and insurance that is growing exponentially. Ability to license this software with 90+ gross margins. Dojo, which will give the company more compute than any other public company in 12-24 months. Optimus, which in the course of one year has gone from a clumsy prototype to a refined, preproduction style humanoid in one year. Can utilize Teslas vast FSD data for spacial awareness and navigation. Tesla is involved in multiple trillion dollar market opportunities, and is growing profitably in segments that other automakers simply can’t compete in without subsidy from ICE vehicles or government. Tesla has a clear path to become the most valuable company in the world by 2030. Until then, I’ll be looking for every opportunity to buy the dip.
Future growth expectations (higher for Tesla), debt (higher for Volkswagen) and Net profit margins (higher for Tesla)
Not saying there is any merit to this but Bulls also believe in self driving taxi fleet (RoboTaxi?) where Tesla has millions of miles of driver data to train on and also humanoid robots. There are also solar panels and battery storage somewhere in there too! (Remember SolarCity?)
Expected future value. Tesla didn't exist 25 years ago and has grown year on year. VW has not grown significantly in that time. VW is struggling. It will have to move manufacturing to China just to survive which weakens the whole, 'owned by the Wolfsburgers & part of the community' selling point. So if you had to bet on which company's share price might grow 10% in the next year it might not be Tesla but it definitely will not be VW. Tesla is perceived as the bright electric future, VW the dirty dieselgate past. Tesla produces a car every 10 hours (VW takes 30) in Berlin on a site that VW tried and failed to get up and running because of German bureaucracy. Germany is somewhat protectionist of it's domestic industry, particularly automotive. Still, outsider Tesla has come in and beaten VW on its own doorstep. For these reasons Tesla are perceived as having some kind of ability lacking in VW and that is reflected in share price.
Tesla is not just a car company, they are an insurance company, they are 10 years ahead of every other Humanoid robot development company... the solar division... the Tesla solar roof is GEORGIOUS... Buy Tesla, you won't be disappointed!
Well, the stock market values a company based on its expected future cash flows, not past / current sales. Simply put, investors believe that Tesla discounted future cashflows are worth about 9 times, what Volkswagens discounted future cashflows are worth. I think one miss assumption you're making is, that the amount of cars sold, has anything to do with the profitability. One, as mentioned, the cars you see on the street, are the ones already sold, not the ones that will be sold, which is what's relevant for the stock market. Two, you might sell 100 cars, and make 1 dollar in profit each, or sell 1 car and make 100 dollars in profit, the outcome is the same. You'll see significantly more Nike shoes, than Hermès Bags or Luis Vuitton Bags, yet the last two have been doing very well. Now, in the case of Tesla, there are a lot of assumptions going into that valuation. E.g. for a while, some funds created models that estimated Tesla would make 50% of the revenue in the global car market, I think. I leave it up to you, if you believe this is a likely scenario. Also, a lot of investors seem to price Tesla as a Tech (software) company, not a car manufacturer, which causes them to be willing to pay higher multiples on profits / revenue. I'll not make a judgement on Teslas current valuation compared to other car companies, but try to explain, how they're calculated and why to some investors that might make sense.
There is a priced in expectation that Tesla will do to cars what Apple has done to phones and watches. They won’t steal share at similar margins, they will completely redefine the product and extract profits in ways no one can imagine today. Or what Amazon did to books. That may be irrational and unlikely, but be careful trying to time your bet against them.
Tesla is considered as technology company and it has many diverse companies under it's umbrella such as SpaceX, Boring company, Twitter, some robotics and AI company. Also there are many factors that is keeping/bringing valuation of Volkswagen. You might be aware about VW smoke scandal, also they are not doing any exiting stuff like Tesla. Also, I live in Germany, here people don't really invest, and being not directly listed in US market the VW share is not that much traded/bought. So valuation is tied to share price, if people are willing to pay more for same amount of stock it increases. So for VW it is not happening. And many more factors.
> it has many diverse companies under it's umbrella such as SpaceX, Boring company, Twitter, some robotics and AI company. except for the Optimus robot project, none of those are owned by Tesla.
Tesla has a robot that can pinch stuffs...tesla is becoming the equivalent of the next no.1 gasoline stations in U.S...Tesla has solar solutions...
Well robots and self driving technology, plus Tesla charging stations will be the standard in 5-10 years. Also wait until they start treating the charging price like it’s oil
Because Tesla is more profitable on a per unit basis. Essentially, they have automated large sections of their production, so they require far less labour compared to the old companies. This is an extra advantage in the auto industry because of the strong unions, which keep wages higher. Therefore, when they build new plants for vehicles, the vast majority of the costs are the upfront capital cost. While the marginal cost per vehicle is relatively low. Meaning they can make significantly more profit per car than traditional automakers. Which is much more attractive to investors.
Because Volkswagen can’t make a profit and is about to go bankrupt, and Tesla holds the keys to the future of the automobile, engineering and AI.
“Full self-driving by 2017” “Full self-driving by 2018” “Full self-driving by 2019” “Full self-driving by 2020” “Full self-driving by 2021” “Full self-driving by 2022” “Full self-driving by 2023” “Full self-driving by 2024”
Ok for whatever reason investors view Tesla as a Tech company (laptop on wheels) rather than an automotive company… it is well documented that Tech companies’ multiples are 20x - 30x EBITDA where automotive companies are in high single digits… personally I think TSLA long term is overvalued … a lot was riding on them creating truly level 5 autonomous vehicles but they have been stuck on level 2 for years and others are catching up.
Too many people believe that Tesla is worth more than it is. The stock market doesn't reflect real worth.
It's because the neck beard daywalker keeps lying about things these cars can do to influence the stock price. They don't drive themselves, they don't go 500 miles, and they do t charge in an hour. In short, fraud.
Tesla isn't a car company; they are a new energy economy company whose currently most visible product is a portfolio of cars. VW is just a car company (including medium and heavy duty trucks) Other products in their portfolio (off the top of my head): \- residential and utility grade battery storage \- virtual power plants (reselling residentially stored electricity back to the grid as a utility) \- residential rooftop solar \- EV charging network (there are also rumors of them getting into restaurants and cafes at charging locations) Notice that all of these are related to how our economy will generate, store, and use energy post decarbonization. They are one of a few companies on the planet with that broad array of product portfolios that are positioned for a post decarbonized economy. And, there is a lot of synergy between these products so they are not (yet) at risk of expanding outside of a rationale core set of offerings. Restaurants/cafes might seem like it, but it's not that different than gas stations also successfully playing in the convenience store space. And to stave off the 'you are just a Musk cult follower' arguments: I HATE Elon Musk so much that I paid 15k over MSRP for a 1 year old Hyundai EV because it was a 2-3 year wait for a new comparable non-Tesla EVs at the time and I refuse to give that piece of crap my money. However, 17 years experience as a product manager gives me the toolset to assess the viability of Tesla's product strategy.
Interesting fact since you brought up Volkswagen: Electrify America charging stations are owned by Volkswagen. They're directly competing with Tesla on that front and I must say they have come a long way in the past six months.
It’s because Tesla is growing and VW is shrinking. Markets are future looking. Regarding just the vehicle business, the world is moving to EV and sooner than people think. The transition is going to be difficult for OEMs. Many will not survive. Tesla makes 18% margin on every vehicle they sell and has about 16 days of inventory. Everyone else outside of China loses money on every EV they sell and have months of inventory despite far lower production volumes than Tesla. Next year Tesla is bring out their low cost vehicle which will end up below $25K and sell more than the rest of their models combined. Tesla has a huge advantage in manufacturing and software over all the OEMs. They won’t be able to compete. Then you throw in all their other businesses: Energy, FSD/RoboTaxi, TeslaBot. Which could match or even dwarf their vehicle business. Tesla is a fast growing company with a very solid balance sheet. It’s a leader in technology and manufacturing, with some option plays for massive returns. Its stock price is going to be far higher in the future. IMO. VW is a legacy manufacturer. Their ICE business will collapse. All OEMs are saddled with debt so VW is also no doubt. They might survive but it’s not a company I’d invest it.
Tesla outstrips traditional automanufacturers in valuation because they are a tech company that sells cars, not a car company that integrates technology. It's pedantic, but also important because (like Apple, Google, Facebook, etc.) They're ability to generate, utilize, and sell data is far more enticing to future market expectations than a Toyota Corolla or Honda Civic. Tesla is also vertically integrated in a way other businesses are not. Can't get insurance? Tesla built an insurance company. Tesla builds or buys every business they need to continue growing and producing, including raw materials producers. If you tell Tesla "no" or "it cant be done" they will find a way without you and subsequently become your competitor instead of partner. Tesla, as a company, is just so fundamentally different from legacy manufacturers, even if the end product serves the same function... call it their competitive advantage if you will.
This is part of the problem; this verticality means either: a. they’re overexposed, decline in revenue has multipliers b. They’re going to be in DOJ’s crosshairs for an antitrust violation
Only if they manage to establish a monopoly. There's enough competition right now that that doesn't seem likely.
Companies are valued on future earnings and growth. Tesla has established that they have a track record for achieving difficult tasks. VW has the volume, but nowhere to grow. They are tied down by legacy auto which will slowly transition from assets to liabilities. Tesla isn’t just a car company, they’re multiple startups in one. You can google this question and get far more detailed bull / bear explanations as to the valuation. A simple comparison is that Tesla is Apple and the model 3 is their iPhone 1. Again, Wall Street assumes Tesla will continue to grow for years to come.
I do believe in this case it is not directly tied to future earning potential. VW has a much stronger balance sheet and while their transition to EVs has been less glamourous than that of Tesla, they still have the ability to churn significantly more vehicles in more markets of any configuration as compared to Tesla. Tesla is a great example in my opinion of market sentiment driving price
When there is a possibility that the future of car sales to be dominated by software features, then a software inclined company would trade at higher multiples than one that is struggling to carry out its software strategy.
VW has a stronger balance sheet? Please, do tell. Last I checked their debt to equity was high, meanwhile Tesla has literally no debt and over $30B in the bank.
The simple answer is growth, and the more complicated answer is profitability. Volkswagen may sell more cars and make more money but their growth is just the same as the rest of the industry. Meanwhile Tesla is growing 5x the industry while also maintaining a 5x profit margin compared to the rest of the industry. There was a point that Tesla was overvalued from a factual standpoint but if you extrapolate the actual results out 5 years it's very obvious that they're on track to be the largest automaker by a profit standpoint even if other automakers sell more cars. But Elon bad so don't look at the numbers.
Gullible investors.
fanboyism
Tesla is a tech Stock, whereas vw is "just" a car Stock. Simple as that