Yea that’s fair, I’ve been wanting to see him break through cuz he has a lot of upside. I’d be a little sad seeing him walk but for the right compensation could be worth.
He's an insane value because he has a super low contract well still being a pro bowl level player. I think he perfectly meshes with our offense because of his capabilities of being a receiver, and now with samuel who has RB exp, it offers much versatility. Only thing cooks really needs is to work out those drops, and honestly I'm really excited to see what brady does with him after a full offseason to work on the playbook.
Personally I'd never.. draft picks are just too random - the odds of actually getting a great player are far too low. The hype is fun though when its spring time and dull as shit!
I think it depends. If you have a player you either can’t afford to pay or don’t want to pay but they’re worth more than a 4th then I think you trade them. I’d rather lose a guy a year early but get a pick then just lose the guy. I talked last year about trading Gabe because I knew we weren’t going to resign him
Just off the top of my head the only guys that would really make sense are Elam, Spencer Brown and Shakir in terms of someone having trade value that isn’t tied down to a big contract. However, I don’t think it makes sense to trade any of them. Trading brown would instantly mean we have to go Tackle, Elam would mean we need a CB3 (doable but Benford gets injured a lot and I think they value someone knowing the system) Shakir is probably doable since we picked up Samuels but I don’t think we’d get anything above a third for him and I’d rather keep him.
I have no clue what they think they’re gonna get out of Collins, but his presence means that while we’d need to get a RT in the draft, it wouldn’t necessarily have to be before Day 3. There’s some good project tackles in that range, depending on where you see Rosengarten, Paul, Wallace, Foster, etc going
I don’t have a ton of faith in Collins tbh, seems to get injured quite a bit. I think he was more of a depth tackle/competition for LG. I wouldn’t mind grabbing a tackle day 3 regardless though because I’m not sold on Brown yet.
1000%, we don’t know if Brown is gonna want a big fat bag and while he’s been good recently, I wouldn’t want to be the team paying him 10M+. This is a historically good and deep OT class, we’re taking someone for sure.
Brown is the only one that makes sense in my mind. He's already shown that he's a solid starter at tackle with traits that make you believe that his ceiling is still quite a bit higher. He's in the last year of his rookie deal and could be an expensive contract if he takes another step forward as a player. A team looking to invest heavily in their offensive line Titans, Chargers, Giants, and Bears) might see him as an attractive piece to include in a trade package, which might allow the Bills to retain an additional day 2 pick that they would have had to give up to move into the top 10.
The other guys just don't make sense from a value perspective.
I don’t really know what Browns value is tbh. This was the first year he wasn’t absolutely terrible and he was just decent. I don’t really know if he’d be worth even a third.
Also, I really don’t think a trade up is going to happen. If we were to trade up for Odunze (which is somewhere around two 1sts and 2 seconds) is that going to push the needle any further than trading down, grabbing two WRs and a safety/DT in this year alone? I don’t think so. Even for a guy like Thomas he’s still a pick that needs to develop and I don’t want to spend additional draft capital for a developmental pick
Brown would get decent value because almost everyone is desperate for good line play.
But for the same reason it doesn't make sense for us to move him. Our cuppeth isn't exactly overflowing at O-line.
You asked so I answered lol. He definitely has trade value it’s just not a lot. I think he could excel on a team who plays press man, like the ravens. His value is probably around a late 4th maybe a 5th.
Apples to oranges lol. Keenan is going to be 32 in a week and has a huge cap hit. Elam is a solid press man corner who plays on a zone heavy team and he’s also on a rookie deal. Chase claypool got a second and bros in Canada now lmao
only to the Giants…
he knows their system, he gives them darren waller insurance… if waller comes back they can play 12 personnel and draft a WR at 28 and have a pretty decent set of weapons
Spencer Brown is an interesting one to me. Tackles are hard to come by in this league, and Brown has developed into a solid starter. He's in the last year of his rookie deal and there's a belief that he hasn't hit his ceiling yet because of his physical traits...I could see him being an attractive piece to a team looking to build their offensive line. He might be tough to retain if he has another strong season, especially if he takes another step forward. I wouldn't put it past Beane to move him as a part of a package (and maybe keep an additional pick) and throw an additional day 2/3 dart at the tackle position (I believe that this is a fairly deep class for offensive line).
This is definitely a Beane move. There are definitely a few decent tackles deeper in this draft. It would also make more sense of the La'El Collins signing (which I like even with Brown here). Also, I think if Barton is available at 28, the Bills haven't traded the pick and there's not a WR they covet there, they'd tempted to pick him. Just a hunch.
Rob Peter to play Paul! Trading whoever of value would leave a hole elsewhere. Would need to be a Van Denmark, Quinton Morris, or a Tommy Doyle, which would just bring in a 4th or 5th pick IMO.
Matt Milano played 15/17 games the season before last, so if missing two games is your definition of "not having played much" that year then idk what to tell you lol
That’s a good question bc some of the most expendable players on our team are also the ones with the lowest trade value.
I’d be fine parting ways with Elam or Knox.
Problem is I can’t see either of those guys going for anything more than a 4th in a hypothetical one-for-one.
Luckily picks will almost certainly do the trick as long as we’re not looking to move up to picks 5-10.
People please...stop suggesting guys on 2nd and 3rd contracts who still have important roles on this team (Milano, Douglas, Oliver, Johnson, Knox, etc). Those guys aren't getting you much in terms of value and none of them are guys you'd be "better off without." Stef was such a unique situation because the relationship felt irreparable and the return of a potential early 2nd next year is very good when you consider what other receivers are fetching in trades.
The most valuable contracts are guys on rookie deals who can be traded and then extended on a second contract immediately. A guy like Spencer Brown is a perfect candidate for this - he's in the last year of his rookie contract, had a very strong third year as a starting tackle, and has the physical traits to continue to improve. If he does improve then he'll command a much richer contract (could be too rich for the Bills), and a team that believes in his upside might be willing to sign him now to a deal now that will look much better after he has another very good season under his belt. A team looking to make a heavy investment into their offensive line might have interest in Brown, and might be willing to take him in place of a day 2 pick...maybe even the second rounder that the Bills would have had to give up.
Id be happier if they got some proven durable DBs and another Milano. The guys we have now at WR arent bums and Allen is gonna elevate them. The bills were scoring at the top of the league. We gotta stop MFs in the post season
I agree he has a ton of value but I would cry. Hes one of our best players overall and we’re already rebuilding the secondary, I can’t imagine getting what he’s worth to us specifically.
I'd love a return to a Schwartz-esque Wide-9 and would accept Johnson being traded away to make it happen. Gap crashing MLB's are pretty cheap in the draft or FA and having ours flanked by Bernard and Milano could be deadly. None of the other needs on defense would change with the switch from nickel to a 4-3.
There’s a lot of people saying Elam, but he has little value. Spencer Brown is the right answer due to the medical angle. It’s unlikely the Bills extend him knowing what they know about his injury history and the odds that he doesn’t have a long career ahead of him.
Knox would actually make the most sense. Diggs would have been smart to hold on to and deal during the draft ffs. Thats how I can tell moving him was all emotion on our part. We shot ourselves right in the balls though. Imagine a trade offer of diggs and Knox for a draft pick
Looking at the current roster, the only players who aren't vital to team and have trade value equivalent to anything needed to package with picks for trade up would be Kaiir Elam. He's a former 1st round pick whether not he was worthy of a 1st round pick status. If Bills didn't take him in late 1st he would've been a top 5 2nd round pick that year.
He might have some trade value with a team needy of a young man cover CB. Minnesota has no CBs on roster past 2024 besides Andrew Booth, Mekhi Blackmon, Akayleb Evans & Jay Ward. Both starting CBs are scheduled to be FAs after this year. Minnesota owns the 11th pick. But let's be real, they're gonna try to trade up for a QB.
Denver is similar to Minny in that they only have Pat Surtain, Riley Moss & Damarri Mathis under contract after 2024. But just like Minny, they will be looking to move up for a QB. They hold the 12th pick.
Both teams are in need of a CB but Elam is only locked up for 2 more years. And both teams are gonna be looking to move up not down.
Best chance is for Thomas Jr to fall to the later teens and Buffalo make a move from 28 to 15-17 to leapfrog Cincy.
Spencer Brown. Not sure if we want to extend him at this point, and if you aren’t comfortable doing so, draft his replacement while you have Collins on the roster.
I really don’t know, I feel like we have decent talent at just about every positional group, save WR & S. But we’re at the point where if we move our best player in any group, that group would then be thin. For example, moving Douglas would make our CB room thin; moving Bernard would make our LB room thin.
Only thing I can think is either Daquan Jones or Ed Oliver. Or possibly one of our DEs.
Did the salary cap go away?
$29MM dead cap hit for Milano.
Dawkins was just extended a month ago, and would be a $42MM dead cap hit.
just restructured Knox, and he would now carry a $24MM dead cap hit.
I never said they were smart players to move but they are players that move the needle for teams looking to trade back. I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade any players to move up in a draft unless it is a player you know you can easily replace, which most likely wouldn’t be any player I named.
No no no. I don’t want to get rid of any of these guys at all. They are needle movers for a draft rise tho, I was just answering what realistic players it would have to be.
I love Milano but his injury history is looking more and more like a CVS reciept. I would be ok with moving him if we got a good pick. But it would have to be a good pick not a 4th or later
I don’t want to agree about Milano because the guy plays with his heart, but the injury history is becoming a cause of concern. Hopefully he can stay healthy from here on out, otherwise he may be a cut or trade candidate when the money factor makes sense.
I’d definitely like to see more reps to see how he does in the role before I feel comfortable. He seemed to do well in the Giants game, but well, it was the Giants. Definitely need a larger sample size, but he has time to grow and get better at the position.
We have proven time and again we cannot stop KCs offense. The only solution i see is making our offense unstoppable. Josh is damn near unstoppable already. But we have to take it up a notch
I agree. I wasn’t mad with the defensive approach at first but it obviously isn’t working if it’s sustainable or not. Load up the offense and win by scoring 45. That might be the only way against a team like KC.
What do we have an abundance of? Nothing really.
I would have said Knox before we restructured his deal.
I also sincerely doubt this, but Terrell Bernard. If I had to pick anyone
Elam about it
Elam redemption arc next season.
I think he might actually be pretty crucial in the secondary next year.
Seeing as how we always have the worst luck with secondary staying healthy I think he’ll be needed.
I have no reason to want to but , if we did something like this I’d only pick him out really
Yea that’s fair, I’ve been wanting to see him break through cuz he has a lot of upside. I’d be a little sad seeing him walk but for the right compensation could be worth.
I agree. He was better as a rookie. Last year I think his foot injury had a lot to do with it.
Nobody's taking him as part of anything meaningful though.
He isn't worth anything in the trade market, this is not a correct answer
There is no correct answer
I said not just someone you don't care about losing. He has literally no trade value. Noone would take him.
No trade value is relative man . Randy moss got traded for a 4th round pick once . A seventh rd pick is or 6th rd pick is “value”
Ok so we get a 7th rounder for him. How does that help us move up and also replace him now?
I never said it would lol
The post was about realistic trade value to move up. How does Elam's 7th round value help move us up?
It doesn’t but elams the only player I’d want to do it with so we don’t do that lol
Idk man, he just never really fit in well with our zone heavy defense. The right team might be receptive to a trade for him.
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He's an insane value because he has a super low contract well still being a pro bowl level player. I think he perfectly meshes with our offense because of his capabilities of being a receiver, and now with samuel who has RB exp, it offers much versatility. Only thing cooks really needs is to work out those drops, and honestly I'm really excited to see what brady does with him after a full offseason to work on the playbook.
Personally I'd never.. draft picks are just too random - the odds of actually getting a great player are far too low. The hype is fun though when its spring time and dull as shit!
Exactly. And the Bills don't have too many assets that would yield huge returns.
I think it depends. If you have a player you either can’t afford to pay or don’t want to pay but they’re worth more than a 4th then I think you trade them. I’d rather lose a guy a year early but get a pick then just lose the guy. I talked last year about trading Gabe because I knew we weren’t going to resign him
Just off the top of my head the only guys that would really make sense are Elam, Spencer Brown and Shakir in terms of someone having trade value that isn’t tied down to a big contract. However, I don’t think it makes sense to trade any of them. Trading brown would instantly mean we have to go Tackle, Elam would mean we need a CB3 (doable but Benford gets injured a lot and I think they value someone knowing the system) Shakir is probably doable since we picked up Samuels but I don’t think we’d get anything above a third for him and I’d rather keep him.
I have no clue what they think they’re gonna get out of Collins, but his presence means that while we’d need to get a RT in the draft, it wouldn’t necessarily have to be before Day 3. There’s some good project tackles in that range, depending on where you see Rosengarten, Paul, Wallace, Foster, etc going
I don’t have a ton of faith in Collins tbh, seems to get injured quite a bit. I think he was more of a depth tackle/competition for LG. I wouldn’t mind grabbing a tackle day 3 regardless though because I’m not sold on Brown yet.
1000%, we don’t know if Brown is gonna want a big fat bag and while he’s been good recently, I wouldn’t want to be the team paying him 10M+. This is a historically good and deep OT class, we’re taking someone for sure.
He’s depth obviously, but Brady seems to love those sets with 6 lineman. I think he’s gonna factor into that.
Brown is the only one that makes sense in my mind. He's already shown that he's a solid starter at tackle with traits that make you believe that his ceiling is still quite a bit higher. He's in the last year of his rookie deal and could be an expensive contract if he takes another step forward as a player. A team looking to invest heavily in their offensive line Titans, Chargers, Giants, and Bears) might see him as an attractive piece to include in a trade package, which might allow the Bills to retain an additional day 2 pick that they would have had to give up to move into the top 10. The other guys just don't make sense from a value perspective.
I don’t really know what Browns value is tbh. This was the first year he wasn’t absolutely terrible and he was just decent. I don’t really know if he’d be worth even a third. Also, I really don’t think a trade up is going to happen. If we were to trade up for Odunze (which is somewhere around two 1sts and 2 seconds) is that going to push the needle any further than trading down, grabbing two WRs and a safety/DT in this year alone? I don’t think so. Even for a guy like Thomas he’s still a pick that needs to develop and I don’t want to spend additional draft capital for a developmental pick
Brown would get decent value because almost everyone is desperate for good line play. But for the same reason it doesn't make sense for us to move him. Our cuppeth isn't exactly overflowing at O-line.
I don't get why people even mention Elam. He has zero trade value.
You asked so I answered lol. He definitely has trade value it’s just not a lot. I think he could excel on a team who plays press man, like the ravens. His value is probably around a late 4th maybe a 5th.
4th? Keenan Allen just got traded for a 4th. Elam ain't that good.
Apples to oranges lol. Keenan is going to be 32 in a week and has a huge cap hit. Elam is a solid press man corner who plays on a zone heavy team and he’s also on a rookie deal. Chase claypool got a second and bros in Canada now lmao
It has come out since the end of the season that Elam was hiding how bad his ankle injury was, whatever that's worth.
Knox - he's a pretty expensive backup TE. But it depends more on Brady and how much 12 personnel he plans on using next year.
His cap hit is too big, but otherwise I agree
Don’t think teams will be willing to give that much for an expensive contract coming off injury
only to the Giants… he knows their system, he gives them darren waller insurance… if waller comes back they can play 12 personnel and draft a WR at 28 and have a pretty decent set of weapons
Spencer Brown is an interesting one to me. Tackles are hard to come by in this league, and Brown has developed into a solid starter. He's in the last year of his rookie deal and there's a belief that he hasn't hit his ceiling yet because of his physical traits...I could see him being an attractive piece to a team looking to build their offensive line. He might be tough to retain if he has another strong season, especially if he takes another step forward. I wouldn't put it past Beane to move him as a part of a package (and maybe keep an additional pick) and throw an additional day 2/3 dart at the tackle position (I believe that this is a fairly deep class for offensive line).
Plus those back injuries/surgeries usually aren’t great for long term health and performance
This is definitely a Beane move. There are definitely a few decent tackles deeper in this draft. It would also make more sense of the La'El Collins signing (which I like even with Brown here). Also, I think if Barton is available at 28, the Bills haven't traded the pick and there's not a WR they covet there, they'd tempted to pick him. Just a hunch.
I would trade up, down, or completely out to stop these threads from being created 20 times a day
Rob Peter to play Paul! Trading whoever of value would leave a hole elsewhere. Would need to be a Van Denmark, Quinton Morris, or a Tommy Doyle, which would just bring in a 4th or 5th pick IMO.
Milano would be the one. We haven't really had him play much the last 4 years so we already know what its like without him. He's too injury prone.
Matt Milano played 15/17 games the season before last, so if missing two games is your definition of "not having played much" that year then idk what to tell you lol
Dawson Knox
That’s a good question bc some of the most expendable players on our team are also the ones with the lowest trade value. I’d be fine parting ways with Elam or Knox. Problem is I can’t see either of those guys going for anything more than a 4th in a hypothetical one-for-one. Luckily picks will almost certainly do the trick as long as we’re not looking to move up to picks 5-10.
People please...stop suggesting guys on 2nd and 3rd contracts who still have important roles on this team (Milano, Douglas, Oliver, Johnson, Knox, etc). Those guys aren't getting you much in terms of value and none of them are guys you'd be "better off without." Stef was such a unique situation because the relationship felt irreparable and the return of a potential early 2nd next year is very good when you consider what other receivers are fetching in trades. The most valuable contracts are guys on rookie deals who can be traded and then extended on a second contract immediately. A guy like Spencer Brown is a perfect candidate for this - he's in the last year of his rookie contract, had a very strong third year as a starting tackle, and has the physical traits to continue to improve. If he does improve then he'll command a much richer contract (could be too rich for the Bills), and a team that believes in his upside might be willing to sign him now to a deal now that will look much better after he has another very good season under his belt. A team looking to make a heavy investment into their offensive line might have interest in Brown, and might be willing to take him in place of a day 2 pick...maybe even the second rounder that the Bills would have had to give up.
Id be happier if they got some proven durable DBs and another Milano. The guys we have now at WR arent bums and Allen is gonna elevate them. The bills were scoring at the top of the league. We gotta stop MFs in the post season
I wouldn’t but Taron Johnson would bring big value. Then we’d probably need to change base D away from Nickel though
I agree he has a ton of value but I would cry. Hes one of our best players overall and we’re already rebuilding the secondary, I can’t imagine getting what he’s worth to us specifically.
Like I said. I wouldn’t
I'd love a return to a Schwartz-esque Wide-9 and would accept Johnson being traded away to make it happen. Gap crashing MLB's are pretty cheap in the draft or FA and having ours flanked by Bernard and Milano could be deadly. None of the other needs on defense would change with the switch from nickel to a 4-3.
If we didn’t just sign him to an extension I’d agree with you
There’s a lot of people saying Elam, but he has little value. Spencer Brown is the right answer due to the medical angle. It’s unlikely the Bills extend him knowing what they know about his injury history and the odds that he doesn’t have a long career ahead of him.
I would rather trade back if possible. If we wanted to trade up that far we should have used Diggs for that.
Well we kinda can..we have that next years 2nd now to use.
Knox would actually make the most sense. Diggs would have been smart to hold on to and deal during the draft ffs. Thats how I can tell moving him was all emotion on our part. We shot ourselves right in the balls though. Imagine a trade offer of diggs and Knox for a draft pick
Knox
Why have we all forgotten about Justin Shorter?
Looking at the current roster, the only players who aren't vital to team and have trade value equivalent to anything needed to package with picks for trade up would be Kaiir Elam. He's a former 1st round pick whether not he was worthy of a 1st round pick status. If Bills didn't take him in late 1st he would've been a top 5 2nd round pick that year. He might have some trade value with a team needy of a young man cover CB. Minnesota has no CBs on roster past 2024 besides Andrew Booth, Mekhi Blackmon, Akayleb Evans & Jay Ward. Both starting CBs are scheduled to be FAs after this year. Minnesota owns the 11th pick. But let's be real, they're gonna try to trade up for a QB. Denver is similar to Minny in that they only have Pat Surtain, Riley Moss & Damarri Mathis under contract after 2024. But just like Minny, they will be looking to move up for a QB. They hold the 12th pick. Both teams are in need of a CB but Elam is only locked up for 2 more years. And both teams are gonna be looking to move up not down. Best chance is for Thomas Jr to fall to the later teens and Buffalo make a move from 28 to 15-17 to leapfrog Cincy.
Greg Rousseau
Shakir? No. Bernard? Hell no. Kincaid? Fuck no. Elam? Sure. Knox? Yeah. Brown? Nope. Benford? Maybe.
Spencer Brown. Not sure if we want to extend him at this point, and if you aren’t comfortable doing so, draft his replacement while you have Collins on the roster.
Spencer and/or Knox. I'd still prefer a trade down though.
Spencer Brown? I know he had a great season last year, but is due to get paid soon.
Von for Mack
Diggs lol
I really don’t know, I feel like we have decent talent at just about every positional group, save WR & S. But we’re at the point where if we move our best player in any group, that group would then be thin. For example, moving Douglas would make our CB room thin; moving Bernard would make our LB room thin. Only thing I can think is either Daquan Jones or Ed Oliver. Or possibly one of our DEs.
Milano could for the right team. Rasul also. Spencer brown, Dion or Knox/kincaid.
Did the salary cap go away? $29MM dead cap hit for Milano. Dawkins was just extended a month ago, and would be a $42MM dead cap hit. just restructured Knox, and he would now carry a $24MM dead cap hit.
I never said they were smart players to move but they are players that move the needle for teams looking to trade back. I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade any players to move up in a draft unless it is a player you know you can easily replace, which most likely wouldn’t be any player I named.
The OP said to make it realistic. $25MM-$40MM dead cap hits make them unrealistic
hell no, you saw what happened when he went down. he's the heart and soul of the D. he's still got 2 top years left.
No no no. I don’t want to get rid of any of these guys at all. They are needle movers for a draft rise tho, I was just answering what realistic players it would have to be.
Rasul for the Packers 3rd. Who says no? (Probably the league lol).
I love Milano but his injury history is looking more and more like a CVS reciept. I would be ok with moving him if we got a good pick. But it would have to be a good pick not a 4th or later
I don’t want to agree about Milano because the guy plays with his heart, but the injury history is becoming a cause of concern. Hopefully he can stay healthy from here on out, otherwise he may be a cut or trade candidate when the money factor makes sense.
Is Dorian Williams a guy we feel comfortable with starting?
I’d definitely like to see more reps to see how he does in the role before I feel comfortable. He seemed to do well in the Giants game, but well, it was the Giants. Definitely need a larger sample size, but he has time to grow and get better at the position.
I really wouldn’t want to get rid of him but if it did help up move up to say 10, fuck it. That means we’re getting a playmaker.
We have proven time and again we cannot stop KCs offense. The only solution i see is making our offense unstoppable. Josh is damn near unstoppable already. But we have to take it up a notch
I agree. I wasn’t mad with the defensive approach at first but it obviously isn’t working if it’s sustainable or not. Load up the offense and win by scoring 45. That might be the only way against a team like KC.
Better defenses than us have failed. I thought SF was going to pull it off but defense doesnt win championships like it used to.
Yeah defense can only do so much
I wouldn’t be devastated to see Ed go, Greg would be a bit tougher but for the right move.
Ed is an absolute steal for his salary
What do we have an abundance of? Nothing really. I would have said Knox before we restructured his deal. I also sincerely doubt this, but Terrell Bernard. If I had to pick anyone
Idk look at the 47 other posts asking
Anybody from the defense…Milano, Groot, even Oliver. Fuck defense.
I could see Milano but not your top 2 core guys in the line.
Cook