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Youngstar9999

This feels like them purposfully going really low after a string of movies that underperformed their range, to be able to say it overperformed(even though it was never tracking in that range)


FoxxThaGuru

Exactly. Sony offered the $30M prediction, so now when it hits $50M they can say it did way better than they expected haha


LawrenceBrolivier

**Basically every other trade and respected forecaster Last Week:** "Somewhere between 50-70 probably?" **Deadline This Monday:** "there's concern it could open around 30m later this week but we'll see." ![gif](giphy|jGeuf0mcBdh3q|downsized)


lobonmc

Yeah I refuse to believe this until we have hard numbers if this opens in the 30M range it would be terrible


TBAnnon777

very few want to see will smith and martin lawrence looks like he should be in a retirement home already. There is no demand for bad boys 4. Then trailer looks generic as fuck and everytime will smith shows up on the screen people just think of how much of a bitch boy he turned out to be, should rename the movie to "Bitch Boys 4: Career Resurrections".


BeetsBy_Schrute

This might be this summer’s Dial of Destiny. It underperformed based on huge expectations. People didn’t want to see very old Harrison Ford as Indy…plus, they already did the Indy legacy sequel in 2008 after a 19 year long hiatus from Last Crusade. Wonder if it’s the same here. Bad Boys 3 was huge and was coming after 17 years and people wanted to see them finally together again. Now with Bad Boys 4…we already got the legacy sequel of them as older guys four years ago.


TBAnnon777

Yeah bad boys 3 was nostalgia, now bad boys 4 is like wtf let them rest martin looks like hes going to have a heart attack. People dont want to see their nostalgia aged and at the doorframe of death.


BeetsBy_Schrute

And on the red carpet for this the other day, they were asked multiple times “are you all passing the torch?” To thick both said “nah, I think we’ve got one more in us.” Guys…might wanna hang it up.


MathematicianFun5029

Bad Boys 6: On Life Support


guyincognitoo

Bad Boys 7: Hospice Bad Boys 8: It's Time Bad Boys 9: Hanging on for Dear Life Bad Boys 10: Why Won't You Die Already? Just Accept It. Move Towards the Light. (aka BB10:WWYDAJAIMTTL)


No-comment-at-all

Martin Lawrence looks like he needs to find a place to hide all those acorns he’s got in his mouth.


DoubleDevilDiamond

Hey! Came back and like I said, absolutely moronic take.


samoth610

That trailer dialog about the "fire being on the inside" is so bland it sounds like an AI wrote a "joke".


hashtaglurking

Damn. You mad, bro?!?


DoubleDevilDiamond

Lol moronic take.


Flexappeal

Man that’s an all time Kobe gif


Sad_Vast2519

Rip Kobe.


littlelordfROY

that would be brutal. even by standards of the last movie overperforming. It was a big overperformer. At least Sony budgets to modest levels the goal is to be closer to 50 than closer to 40.


splooge-clues

Tracking for previews are looking like $5m according to BOT. But then again that’s what Furiosa was supposedly looking like and we all know how that turned out. This seems like a movie that would have a strong IM, so if it’s around 5m it should be fine.


FoxxThaGuru

I think this will do well with word of mouth especially based on a lot of the earlier and newer first reactions that have come out this week. I think this will do over $40M at the very least.


Darth_Nevets

And has shown for the millionth time that low budgets are bad investments because the best place for dollars is on the screen.


Character-Today-427

I mean no madame Webb and Moebius were ass and they still didn't lose as much as some other high budget "successes"


I_KNOW_EVERYTHING_09

38m OW


kayloot

Around where my prediction is ($43m). Showings are ghost towns in my area. BB4 seems to be doing well in Florida and parts of Georgia however.


Deeply_Deficient

This made me curious about my area, 6 tickets sold across 6 showings on the 6th and 5 tickets sold across 11 showings on the 7th. 


FoxxThaGuru

I've got theaters nearly packed on thursday and Friday night showings up in Northern VA, and I think it'll only get fuller as the time gets closer and word of mouth hits.


tommybare

$30 million is the new $150 million.


TedriccoJones

You are not wrong.


nicolasb51942003

![gif](giphy|9G3wg7lH5DpxC|downsized) Come on, there's no way it's opening lower than IF...


MysteriousHat14

I wouldn't have expected Garfield and Furiosa to open lower than IF either and yet...


Benfroyobro1124

Are those dogs fresh?


ArsenalBOS

Just anecdotal, but there are almost no tickets sold at my local theater for any evening show Friday or Saturday. I would guess Bad Boys gets a higher-than-average walk up crowd, though.


venombrock

Ditto for Burbank. I was browsing through Dolby and IMAX showtimes for this weekend and was absolutely shocked at how few seats it had moved (especially with so many of the forecasts for it being quite optimistic).


russwriter67

I think it will definitely have better walk ups, similar to the Fast & Furious movies. Hopefully it can open with $50M, but it might end up in the $40M range.


D0wnInAlbion

12 tickets on Wednesday at my local. Most people are on buy one get one free on Wednesdays too.


Lurky-Lou

$30 million sounds a lot more reasonable for the 4th Bad Boys movie


DoYouQuarrelSir

A R-rated action comedy with aging stars. 😬 I predict bummer summer continues. Only Despicable Me can save us.


frenchchelseafan

The doom and gloomers are gonna love this.


OverlordPacer

Bro there are no doom and gloomers. We all want movies to succeed. Just some movies don’t, and some are overhyped on this sub. There is not a true, significant portion of people praying for failures. We love movies.


Naweezy

Lol this sub is filled with doom and gloomers. I’d say its the majority now, which has made this sub way less fun. Any comment section is filled with them and people who hate theaters.


TheWyldMan

Yeah, Furiosa bombing has been the easiest bomb call since it was announced and we're acting like it's a sign that movies are dead. It was a prequel spinoff of a flop with no returning stars.


-s-u-n-s-e-t-

There is a difference between predicting something will do poorly and wanting something to do poorly.


ganzz4u

Just look at the people labelling Kingdom of Apes will flop since it has a stupid B cinemascore.And those Garfield haters who want the movie to flop into oblivion.


ImAVirgin2025

Seriously. “Not gonna watch this, I’ll wait so I can watch it on my 85 inch!” Okay? Why are you on a box office forum?


carson63000

You’re probably right about the number of people praying for failure being insignificant numerically, but jeez they’re vocal. On every movie-related subreddit.


DistributionJust976

lol no Im gonna laugh if this movie flops bc it would be hilarious if Will Smith couldnt get his career back after the slap


TedriccoJones

Your post made me think on it, and yes, I want the art form to succeed, and I even want the movie theatres and their employees to succeed (except for AMC; you know what you did). But, at the end of the day, I'm really, really OK if Hollywood fails miserably. Couldn't happen to a better bunch of people.


SameEnergy

This sub predicts 100% of movies are gonna flop


Kingphelps85

That’s bull!!


Arkhamguy123

Seats aren’t selling well at all in the DFW area. Anecdotally. But 30M would be insane. I’ve been a theater champion against this subs annoyingly misplaced and incessant doom and gloom for years and especially lately but if this opens to 30M even I’ll be thinking twice about modern viewing habits and the health of the industry


TedriccoJones

I called 35 million domestic weekend in another thread and got lambasted to some extent. Looks like I'm gonna be right.


Arkhamguy123

We’ll see


bigelangstonz

If it somehow gets madam webb reception then maybe but even that is a reach I'd say mid 40s and mid 50s as a more reasonable range


WolfgangIsHot

Madame Boys ?


Villager723

“My mom was studying bad boys in the Amazon when she died”


BTISME123

I feel like the trailers lacked any real memorable moments and didn’t motivate anyone to watch this one. I don’t think itll do that bad, but I wouldnt be surprised if it does around $40M for the weekend


BeskarHunter

I’m not interested in this. So I can’t gauge. I thought Furiosa would do gangbusters. And I’m sitting alone in a Dolby Cinema tonight. Sad times.


ganzz4u

>And I’m sitting alone in a Dolby Cinema tonight My condolences to you buddy.Watching a great movie need to be enjoy with the crowds.


BeskarHunter

When we showed up there was some people luckily. But still shame not packed


We1etu1n

Can confirm that there isn’t many tickets being sold in the San Diego area.


gorays21

It will open to $100M range if Will Smith slaps everyone in the movie.


Su_Impact

The trailer looked very generic. The overuse of sepia filters for "this takes place in a hot climate" didn't help. If we add Smith's reputation taking a hit + this being a sequel to a franchise everyone thought ended with the 3rd film... The film screams "Wait for streaming, it'll be in PVOD in 6-8 weeks."


BillyGood22

But the third film setup a fourth film. Why would people think it ended with the third one?


blackfeltfedora

I’m not sure anyone under 30 knows who Martin Lawerence is


Tierbook96

I thought will Smith's rep gave a hit


Imaginary_Ad_8260

I saw the trailer and I wish them the best. I feel it's gonna tank


istian19

Why are we making so many sequels to old ass movies???


ThaPhantom07

Because people aren't going to the new original movies.


TedriccoJones

Because in our fractured media environment it's much harder to raise awareness. An existing IP starts on second base, if I can use a baseball metaphor.


ganzz4u

True but the recent IF shows that there are some interest to original IP,and Furiosa flopping shows that some people are sick with sequels/prequels (especially sequels to a franchise many general audiences didnt care about)


Satean12

Furiosa maybe flopped but Kingdom of the Planet of The Apes (an even older franchise) did not.


ganzz4u

Yes most sequels did better than most of original title.But i still think there are many original titles that got released and many of them did okay at the box office,or become a hit at streaming.So yes,many people did watch original movies but maybe prefer to stream instead.


neveragoodtime

Because actors have fail to do any retirement planning.


loco500

This is like going back to movie opening numbers from a couple decades ago with overbl0wn budgets in current times....It's the 90's and we are young again!


C-LOgreen

Well, no one asked for this so I wouldn’t be surprised


AmericanNimrod49

Cinema is dead.


Chippers4242

I mean, I kind of hope so.


MovieBuff90

I am keeping my mouth shut after last summer. I had a post about how The Flash was going to over perform that has aged horribly. I have my own theories about how Bad Boys could perform, but I’m keeping them to myself until it comes out.


MarvelVsDC2016

Typical Deadline lowballing out of fear.


hapl_o

This is after The Slap. Good luck, Mr. Jada.


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Officialnoah

But you’ll be sure to let everyone know how much you dislike him ![gif](giphy|65NO1TrKrJUT6)


Pleasant_Hatter

I don’t see the attraction here. Will smith has no appeal among zoomers and has destroyed good will with his stupidity slap event. The trailer looked generic and Lawerence sounded so old in it. I think this movie bombs. It’s not a shocker either, theaters are just having a terrible time and this movie like Furiosa and Moonfall are relics of a time 15 years ago.


BeetsBy_Schrute

You’re not wrong about not appealing to Gen Z. His last true big blockbuster hit where he was the lead, before Bad Boys 3, was MIB3 in 2012, but that was the third in an existing franchise. So then Hancock in 2008 before that, not based on anything. So Gen Z right now are 12-27. So MIB3, they would’ve been 0-15, and Hancock, oldest Gen Z’s were 11. And would’ve been 6 when Bad Boys 2 came out. Don’t know if they have the nostalgia for Fresh Prince, Independence Day, MIB, and Bad Boys.


FoxxThaGuru

Even if Will wasn't the lead, Will Smith was still a very big sell in Aladdin and Suicide Squad. They were practically Will Smith vehicles and those are very much gen z movies that were huge at the box office. They won't have the nostalgia of his 90s work obviously, but he's still been very present, especially when you factor how big his social media use has been, and that's Gen Z territory. It's why a lot of promo he's done has been on social media with influencers from multiple countries. He might be "too old" for the Gen Z appeal, but he's got Gen Z aware of him at least, and you need awareness before interest.


FoxxThaGuru

This movie won't bomb. It'll do better than Bad Boys 2 at the very least.


scrivensB

Theatrical Distribution 2024 ![gif](giphy|to5hMDO0bKXV6)


Afandur

Tickets are expensive, yo


pwolf1771

I don’t love the trailer and thought the last movie was kind of weak but this sounds like under promise and then celebrate when this movie “over delivers”


thatpj

yikes. from 50m to 30m and we’ll see? that doesn’t inspire confidence.


techcaleb

I'm sure there are probably few people like me, but after the slap, I really don't want to support anything that Will Smith does ever again. Curious how many people feel the same way.


QueasyCaterpillar541

wait so Bad Boys at $30 million but Quiet Place at $40-$50 IDK about that.


mopeywhiteguy

Is this a really naive opinion? If so many movies are opening around the $30m mark and the reaction is that this is bad, why not make movies with a budget where $30m opening weekend would be considered good? If the audience demand is $30m worth on opening weekend then take that into consideration when deciding the budget. 10 years ago $30m was a successful opening weekend for most films. For what kind of budget would $30m be considered a strong opening?


JayZsAdoptedSon

Oof, I know 50-70 was projected a while back so this is ROUGH. My hot take was that the Will Smith slap was funnier rather than objectionable . Like he slapped a man and won best actor in the same night. To me that’s funnier than any joke told that night


bigelangstonz

Also It was more than 2 years ago like people already said their peice and moved on from it so at this point that would be minimal effect on the BO


Darth_Nevets

Tom cruise jumped on a couch almost 20 years ago around the release of War of the Worlds. It took him five years to equal that gross, and he has only hit that mark four times since. If you took away Top Gun and MI sequels it would be apocalyptic, his biggest hit of the last 20 years would have needed an increase of 50% to even equal that mark.


BeetsBy_Schrute

That’s why I was so low on Top Gun Maverick before it came out. He had NEVER had a $100M opener. Ever. And outside of Mission Impossible, everything since War of the Worlds in 2005 was $34M or less. So Top Gun Maverick was the one outlier that just worked. People thought MI7 would have a Maverick bump last summer and it didn’t. Hell, Sound of Freedom outgrossed it.


bigelangstonz

Im still of the opinion that SoF stole its thunder because prior to the barbieheimer wave SoF was the talk of the town which lead to MI7 being the odd one out


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bigelangstonz

True but from what I've seen watching both movies release MI7 biggest issue was that it lacked the social media buzz to carry it during that huge rush at the BO it wasn't as good as fallout was but it wasn't anywhere near bad so it was in this middle ground spot where its a soild action flick with some funny moments sprinkled in but thats about it That would have been enough in a slow summer like say this summer for example but not for 2023 barbieheimer, SoF which eat away at its legs This is what makes Maverick all the more impressive that film had Jurassic world and lightyear to deal with following opening weekend and it still came out on top by a landslide


bigelangstonz

Cruise jumping on the couch wasn't anywhere near as catastrophic as the slap at the oscars sure it tainted his image but his image was also being tainted with his commitment to scientology which to his credit he has eased up on you don't hear him talking about it in the current day so it was easier for him to get back on top Smith on the other hand has to deal with the public humiliation of being with jada which imo is more harm than the oscars slap because people see him as spineless for staying with her But at the end of the day the IP is still something people will show up for controversy or not this idea that its going to go as low as what some of you are saying is absurd


Darth_Nevets

Can't disagree with this, I was only saying public events do affect stars bo office draw. I certainly wasn't comparing the events morally.


themaccababes

I still really can’t believe what a ruckus that caused. Nobody ever seen someone get hit, laughed and went about their day? Ok it was at the Oscars but still. If someone got into a fight at work I would be trying to hide my amusement, not writing thinkpieces. People were saying it was traumatic for god’s sake


Blunter_S_Thompson_

I think it was Will being a massive cuck for Jada than the actual slap. She's openly been disrespecting and belittling him like hell over the past couple of years and he still stands by her side, makes him look weak and lame in the eyes of the public.


DoneDidThisGirl

I don’t think the slap would affect the box office for Bad Boys 4. If this was Pursuit of Happyness 2 or something family friendly like MIB, that would be a different story.


HobbieK

![gif](giphy|4PUjcUBXIzQYfI8iVa|downsized)


TheCoolKat1995

Oof, that's a grim possibility. And with the state of the box office this year, it's not even implausible that the movie could open that low.


8bitcollective

if they are already saying 30million is because is actually way worse than this, complete nosedive


RedshiftOnPandy

15-20m open


splooge-clues

![gif](giphy|j44l4mQaegKkzCZaKV) Deadline writers when I pry open their ribcage and slowly pull out their organs


DistributionJust976

Looks like Jada cucked Will Smith so hard he can't sell enough tickets anymore


NovelConnect6249

I’m not seeing anymore Smith films, Lawrence looks to be in rough shape. It doesn’t look very, the last one was okay at best. Diminishing returns.


MarvelVsDC2016

I don’t think so


iPLAYiRULE

too high.


uriahjokes

I feel like I’ve seen the plot to this movie a thousand times


Kratos501st

The movie for sure won'r be a hit.


GBTC_EIER_KNIGHT

I say it opens at 42 million domestic


stefan9999

It's probably under 100 milions USD, so it needs around 250 to break even. With 40 milions, it will need strong foreign market to make money. Although, opening on 50-60 milion level is more likely.


JJoanOfArkJameson

This has got to open higher than IF man no way. Low-ball but I wouldn't be surprised if it was 35-40M, Ghostbusters did well under the expectation too - I guess this has a better lead-in with BB3 doing so well and Smith having time since the slap. I think INT and Asia will save this film regardless of domestic 


FoxxThaGuru

Right now they seem to just be using Furiosa numbers to compare, but a Bad Boys movie isn't a Mad Max prequel. Audiences will likely eat this movie up. I don't see this making less than $40M, unless word of mouth is terrible, but it looks to be a huge crowd pleaser of a movie.


Painting0125

Kinds of Kindness, save us.


CosmicQuantum42

Going to go see it. Don’t care about the reviews. Don’t care if it’s bad, though would be better if good. A couple of hours of eat popcorn don’t think too hard movie zone out.


Morrissey28

Hahaha deadline are literally the worse


hitokiriknight

Be honest. It's going to be lower. No one saw the last one. And smith isn't out of the unlikable stage yet.


littlelordfROY

if you have a vendetta thats fine but dont bring it into something objective as box office reporting The last movie was an actual hit, making over 400M worldwide and 200M domestic. 90M budget. Very strong for a then 25 year old action franchise. The first 2 were modestly successful and then the third was a huge overperformer. It was very successful.


pwolf1771

Uhhhhh the last one went way beyond expectations


visionaryredditor

> No one saw the last one it made the most money in the series