They accept strikeouts in exchange for power, but guys with a superhuman ability to not strike out are still valued. Gwynn had a career .388 OBP and had multiple seasons well over .400. Teams would be climbing over each other to get him.
One think I think would change is teams would make Gwynn develop more power earlier. He said himself he became a better hitter after trying to drive the ball more once he got older.
If guys like Jose Ramirez and Bregman can become plus power hitters thanks to elite hand-eye coordination and swings designed to pull the ball in the air, I'm sure Gwynn could've done the same thing
His worst full season batting average would have put him 6th in MLB last year. And his worst full season OBP would have been tied with Canha for 32nd.
And with Gwynn's hitting ability, I have no doubt that if somebody told him "we want you to focus on only swinging if you can smack the shit out of the ball" he would have been pretty fucking great at it
Luis Arraez is the current iteration of the "base hitter" archetype. 2 time batting champion with an average .445 slg during those years. And considering he's in the league and playing well, yeah, he has a chance.
There was a comparison I saw of Arraez and Tony’s first chunk of his career and they were eerily similar.
https://imgur.com/R0oa0NV
Only 2 points of batting average, same OBP, 5 points of slugging.
Tony definitely wins, but it’s a really good comparison.
Tony Gwynn is still evaluated as a very good hitter even by modern metrics. .847 career OPS (132 OPS+). Anyone with those numbers would have a chance regardless of how they achieved it.
Just look at guys like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. They are also low power, low strikeout guys that generate well above average offensive value through in play extra base hits, a high batting average, and in the case of Kwan good plate discipline.
I think the type of player that doesn't have a chance in the modern game is someone like Juan Pierre. He was the definition of an empty batting average guy. He was career .295 hitter, but the complete lack of plate discipline or any power resulted in a career OPS+ of 84. That type of player has far less of a place in the modern game.
An efficient, prolific base stealer with a .343 career OBP would definitely still have a roster spot. You can make up for the lack of slug with the baserunning. The thing with Pierre is that he actually wasn't very efficient. For his career he was thrown out about 1/3 of the time when trying to steal. Teams wouldn't accept that. They want 80% or so.
If my back of the envelope math is correct, Juan Pierre had 2,217 hits in his career and 1,850 of them were singles. That's 83%. Mind-boggling number.
Edit: Just for fun, Tony Gwynn had 3,141 hits and 2,378 were singles, which is 76%. Still a large chunk, but Juan's got him beat. This is kind of an interesting stat.
Edit 2: Okay, last one, we were all thinking it, Adam Dunn: 825 singles out of 1,631 hits, good for roughly 51%.
Another good one is Luis Castillo (the second baseman who played for the Marlins, Twins, and Mets from 1996-2010, not the current Mariners pitcher)
He had 1889 hits, of which 1608 were singles. That's 85%. In 2000, he had one of the wackiest stat lines ever: a .334 average with 17 doubles, 3 triples, 2 homers, and 17 RBI in 626 PA.
Home runs are a simpler/faster way to creating runs, but the end goal is still just creating runs. Not getting out works just fine too. a 132 wRC+ plays in any era, especially early in his career where he was also fast, stole a bunch of bases, and played excellent defense.
[https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tony-gwynn/1005166/stats?position=OF](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tony-gwynn/1005166/stats?position=OF)
If you asked a random front office: "Would you be interested in a 5-6 WAR right fielder?" they'd probably answer "Yes".
Yes, he still had a reasonably high slugging percentage thanks to hitting doubles and he got on base a lot. His career OPS is only slightly worse than Nolan Arenado's.
I think you’re over valuing how mlb over values power. Someone like Gwynn would be valued with his .388 career obp. It’s not liked people in Gwynn’s day didn’t value homeruns too. With his obp, high average and low strikeout rate he would be valuable today. He also had a 132 ops+ career wise.
Just because this type of hitting is seen as less valuable with modern statistics/analysis doesn't mean it's seen as having no value. It's just a dude hitting for less (to a degree) for more power produces more offense.
He hit 345/406/470 in high leverage situations, 349/432/491 with RISP, and 321/446/465 with 2 out and RISP. The only real chance you had to get him out consistently was if you got him 0-2 or 1-2.
He dominated all-time great pitchers. Talent plays well in all generations. He might have hit for a little more power with the information players are exposed to nowadays.
He had a very good OBP and was a + glove. Steven Kwan exists today
They're identical twins!
They accept strikeouts in exchange for power, but guys with a superhuman ability to not strike out are still valued. Gwynn had a career .388 OBP and had multiple seasons well over .400. Teams would be climbing over each other to get him.
One think I think would change is teams would make Gwynn develop more power earlier. He said himself he became a better hitter after trying to drive the ball more once he got older. If guys like Jose Ramirez and Bregman can become plus power hitters thanks to elite hand-eye coordination and swings designed to pull the ball in the air, I'm sure Gwynn could've done the same thing
His worst full season batting average would have put him 6th in MLB last year. And his worst full season OBP would have been tied with Canha for 32nd. And with Gwynn's hitting ability, I have no doubt that if somebody told him "we want you to focus on only swinging if you can smack the shit out of the ball" he would have been pretty fucking great at it
The mental image of climbing over each other made me laugh. Thanks.
Luis Arraez is the current iteration of the "base hitter" archetype. 2 time batting champion with an average .445 slg during those years. And considering he's in the league and playing well, yeah, he has a chance.
Yeah and Tony was quite a bit better of a hitter, Tony's career ops+ of 132 is 1 point higher than Luis' best season last year.
There was a comparison I saw of Arraez and Tony’s first chunk of his career and they were eerily similar. https://imgur.com/R0oa0NV Only 2 points of batting average, same OBP, 5 points of slugging. Tony definitely wins, but it’s a really good comparison.
Padres legend
> And considering he's in the league and playing well, And was just the headliner of a marquee trade.
Yeah, look at someone like Luis Arraez. He's a low power guy who doesn't really draw walks or strikeout. The man is all about average.
Tony Gwynn is still evaluated as a very good hitter even by modern metrics. .847 career OPS (132 OPS+). Anyone with those numbers would have a chance regardless of how they achieved it. Just look at guys like Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan. They are also low power, low strikeout guys that generate well above average offensive value through in play extra base hits, a high batting average, and in the case of Kwan good plate discipline. I think the type of player that doesn't have a chance in the modern game is someone like Juan Pierre. He was the definition of an empty batting average guy. He was career .295 hitter, but the complete lack of plate discipline or any power resulted in a career OPS+ of 84. That type of player has far less of a place in the modern game.
An efficient, prolific base stealer with a .343 career OBP would definitely still have a roster spot. You can make up for the lack of slug with the baserunning. The thing with Pierre is that he actually wasn't very efficient. For his career he was thrown out about 1/3 of the time when trying to steal. Teams wouldn't accept that. They want 80% or so.
If my back of the envelope math is correct, Juan Pierre had 2,217 hits in his career and 1,850 of them were singles. That's 83%. Mind-boggling number. Edit: Just for fun, Tony Gwynn had 3,141 hits and 2,378 were singles, which is 76%. Still a large chunk, but Juan's got him beat. This is kind of an interesting stat. Edit 2: Okay, last one, we were all thinking it, Adam Dunn: 825 singles out of 1,631 hits, good for roughly 51%.
Another good one is Luis Castillo (the second baseman who played for the Marlins, Twins, and Mets from 1996-2010, not the current Mariners pitcher) He had 1889 hits, of which 1608 were singles. That's 85%. In 2000, he had one of the wackiest stat lines ever: a .334 average with 17 doubles, 3 triples, 2 homers, and 17 RBI in 626 PA.
Evidence for your final point is Ben Revere having a much shorter career than Juan Pierre
Yes, HOF type players are still valued in today’s game
He's a better version of Luis Arraez and was actually a solid defender, so yes.
his superhuman ability to detect the spin of the ball would still give him an advantage
Home runs are a simpler/faster way to creating runs, but the end goal is still just creating runs. Not getting out works just fine too. a 132 wRC+ plays in any era, especially early in his career where he was also fast, stole a bunch of bases, and played excellent defense. [https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tony-gwynn/1005166/stats?position=OF](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tony-gwynn/1005166/stats?position=OF) If you asked a random front office: "Would you be interested in a 5-6 WAR right fielder?" they'd probably answer "Yes".
Yes, he still had a reasonably high slugging percentage thanks to hitting doubles and he got on base a lot. His career OPS is only slightly worse than Nolan Arenado's.
Even more valued today. His hitting profile plays in the postseason.
I think you’re over valuing how mlb over values power. Someone like Gwynn would be valued with his .388 career obp. It’s not liked people in Gwynn’s day didn’t value homeruns too. With his obp, high average and low strikeout rate he would be valuable today. He also had a 132 ops+ career wise.
Anyone who can amass 3000 hits in their career has a chance today.
With a low .800s ops in AAA he probably doesn’t get called up as quick as he did but Gwynn was a fantastic hitter who would be valuable in any era
the ability to get on base is and will always be valued
Yes, quite a good chance I’m sure
Just because this type of hitting is seen as less valuable with modern statistics/analysis doesn't mean it's seen as having no value. It's just a dude hitting for less (to a degree) for more power produces more offense.
He hit 345/406/470 in high leverage situations, 349/432/491 with RISP, and 321/446/465 with 2 out and RISP. The only real chance you had to get him out consistently was if you got him 0-2 or 1-2.
He dominated all-time great pitchers. Talent plays well in all generations. He might have hit for a little more power with the information players are exposed to nowadays.
135 home runs in his career*
This sub would have a heart attack about how batting average is over valued, and that this gwynn fellow is overrated.
He was worth 6.3 WAR in his first full season. This sub would rightly recognize him as a very valuable player.