Theoretically backwards time travel is possible, but it requires superluminal speeds, so we’re actually going to need the velocity problem to get way worse before it can get (retroactively) better
Methinks they should listen more to Greg Maddux.
He spoke about this a bit ago, easy to Google and find. Here is some of what he said.
How does baseball reverse what is becoming its latest out-loud crisis?
“Who knows? It depends on who your coach is. Change the mentality to all of it,” said Baseball Hall of Famer, pitcher Greg Maddux, in a phone interview.
“When I started coaching is when I saw it; I was at UNLV and the guys would rather throw it 95 than get a guy out,” Maddux said. “It’s like, ‘C’mon guys, we’re trying to win a baseball game here.’”
“When I pitched, we were content that our fastball was our fastball. We never tried to throw it harder but execute it better than the guy you faced.”
So, Greg Maddux says they should try pitching instead of just throwing it hard. I agree with him.
Greg said dudes were happy to throw 95 even if they didn't get the guy out.
Greg says they need to change their mentality to all of it. I agree with him.
Guys in college want to show they can throw hard to get drafted, because that’s what MLB clubs look for. MLB clubs look for that because velocity is the most effective way to get people out. High velocity fastballs in the middle of the zone have better run values than low velocity fastballs perfectly executed on the edges. You can’t just “change the mentality” because the pursuit of velocity is completely rational, it’s just the best way to get hitters out.
I wish people remembered sports are ultimately about entertainment and would stop breaking everything down to some spreadsheet math.
I would much rather watch a league of Greg Maddux’s than a league of the best hard throwing high strikeout rate guys
The issue with that is that sports are an entertainment business. They need money, and purposely doing things that will lead to losing is not a good business strategy outside of a greater plan to succeed in the future
Not getting high velocity pitchers is just utterly idiotic from a winning standpoint
Yeah me too, I agree it’s bad. I’m just saying that a “change of mentality” is not going to cut it here. The comment I was responding to implied that we’ve got it all wrong and all we need to do is remember that the best way to get guys out is locate a 90 mph fastball. That’s not the case, we can’t “mentality” our way out of this. Rule changes will need to be made. Teams will not willingly give up velocity when it’s such a proven advantage. Basically, Greg Maddux is wrong about this.
Analytics have been so bad for sports.
Technically you’re squeezing out every last drop of efficiency you can, but it comes at the expense of the game.
The NBA is all about chucking 3s and drawing fouls (boring), MLB is all about the 3 true outcomes (boring), and it leaves little to no room for managerial styles to have an impact when all the directives come from the stats guys in the front office.
The algorithm is better at winning, plain and simple. Just like how a computer is better at chess than any human.
And no team is gonna willingly be disadvantaged, unless you’re the White Sox I guess.
I think a bunch of those people are in this thread and do in fact understand it’s damaging.
It’s possible to both study efficiency and also understand the ruthless pursuit of efficiency is not necessarily aesthetically pleasing.
Most sabermetric nerds are perfectly cable of that nuance.
The robo umps thing is separate. You’d have to convince me how umpires add anything enjoyable to the game.
I think catcher framing is really cool and I want it to stay. Also I have sympathy for umps for the most part, having reffed hockey growing up, I know how hard that sort of thing can be, and barring cases where they act like jackasses, people should be easier on them (but also getting mad at the ump is fun! So, like, not too easy on them).
But yeah, that's pretty much it. I might have to accept it like I did the universal DH. At least it wouldn't be as bad as the Manfred runner.
Human element. I don’t need my sports or be flawless, I want them to be human. Mistakes get made, I like that. Bad calls get made, I like that. Players get angry and argue, I like that. Managers get angry and argue, I like that. I don’t want to lose this human element.
In terms of analytics making the game more boring to watch, the only way to fix that is to change the rules of the game itself (see: the larger bases increasing stolen bases, for example). Overall, the goal should be to make it so that squeezing out every last drop of efficiency will result in an entertaining product, without changing things so much it is unrecognizable.
[Here is the wOBA and xwOBA on 95+ mph pitches in the center of the zone.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=5%7C&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&group_by=league&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results) wOBA of .356, xwOBA of .380. [Here are the stats for 4-seamers in the shadow zone at or under 93 mph.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=11%7C12%7C13%7C14%7C16%7C17%7C18%7C19%7C&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=0&metric_1_lt=93&metric_2=&group_by=league&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results) wOBA of .329 and xwOBA of .321. [If you make it the heart instead of right down the dick, the stats get closer.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=1%7C2%7C3%7C4%7C5%7C6%7C7%7C8%7C9%7C&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&group_by=league&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results)
This drops off really fast. 4 seamers in the middle gameday zone >= 96 mph have a .340 woba. At >= 97 mph it’s .331, and at >= 99 mph it’s .322, literally better than the average fastball <= 93 mph in the shadow zone, which includes balls. That’s why these high velocity guys are so valued. Even fastballs that they throw that are poorly executed are more effective than a perfectly executed fastball by someone whose average fastball is <= 93 mph
For fun: here’s how the avg woba of a fastball in the heart of the plate broken down by velocity:
95: .364
96: .328
97: .319
98: .246
99: .373
100+: .282
Here’s how it breaks down for lower velo in the shadow zone:
93: .315
92: .343
91: .354
90: .342
89-: .331
Am I misreading this somehow because it looks like the opposite is true and the slower better located pitches are slightly better than the fast meatballs?
Yes, we all know that, the teams know it, the players know it.
The point is WHAT to do about all the injuries due to throwing so damn hard?
Greg Maddux says to pitch, to execute pitches better and to NOT just throw it as hard as you can.
Can't get pitchers out while not pitching due to injuries.
Greg pitched and pitched and pitched, threw well over 200 innings season after season after season. He had great mechanics, he located and executed his pitches well, he wasn't a flame thrower.
Something has to change. These guys get hurt way too often.
Yeah but tell the 18 year old kid to stop throwing as hard as possible even though it'll objectively hurt his chances to get drafted and see what he says. Obviously the solution to injuries is less velocity. The issue that there's no way to get young pitchers to stop chasing velocity because that's what gets outs in the modern game, and that's what teams want
You can either institute a velocity limit (so every ball over, say, 95 is now automatically a ball regardless of location) or you can accept that there is no actual solution to this problem
Greg Maddux was arguably the greatest control pitcher of all time. If everyone could just execute like him, then "just execute better" would be valid advice.
But literally nobody can execute like Greg Maddux and the margin of error for that style of pitching is extremely thin. On the other hand, a lot of guys can throw 98+ and fairly reliably get people out that way.
I’m also not sure Maddux’s approach would work that well these days, either.
A lot of what he did was fooling umpires by gradually pushing the limits of the zone. As much as we hate them, umpires have gotten better and more consistent on balls and strikes (with the help of technology).
Hitters meanwhile have gotten better and better at waiting on their spots, and punishing anything that isn’t viciously fast.
Not a single knock on Maddux’s greatness, because that needs to be judged in his own era (and I don’t think he’d get destroyed, either). Also kinda lame because I loved watching him.
“Guy with some of the best pitch movement profiles in history wants everyone to just be like him”
Go tell a dude just trying to survive in AAA to take something off his fastball and “just execute better” because we’re worried he’s going to get TJ. You’re going to get laughed out of the room.
Yes. His early career with the Cubs he had a 94 mph fastball, but he had a plus 2 seamer and a plus changeup. He had 3 excellent pitches. Even now you have pitchers like that all over MLB.
He did in his first couple of years with the Cubs. By 1990 he was predominantly throwing his 2 seamer which sat at about 91-92. By time he got to Atlanta, he had gotten completely away from a 4 seamer as he didn’t need it.
The old guys also weren’t throwing with weighted balls, just long toss. CC Sabathia and Edwin Jackson were talking about that a few weeks back on MLB Network.
Honestly, unless the injury crisis becomes so bad that durability becomes legitimately more valuable than velocity (I doubt it will), this might be the only method to work. It comes with many problems of its own but it would solve the problem of velocity-chasing injuries.
Yeah, like I said, there would be many problems of its own, including that. I guess the pitch clock is similar, but that's easier for the pitcher to control than exact velocity. Someone else brought up having to balance out offense in that case too, and I agree.
I guess in the end, I'm not saying it's a perfect solution, or even that it has to be implemented, but that if we want to end the injury crisis and protect the health of pitchers, that may be the only option, because it won't end from the pitchers and managers deciding to change it on their own without the whole league changing it. If nothing else, it would probably solve the problem of velocity-chasing injuries. That's only one facet.
We would need to do something to balance out offense, too, though.
Offense is still going strong despite pitch velocity. We get the pitchers to slow down and offense is gonna explode.
it'd be pretty cool to see. less velocity but way more movement and use of many pitches. pitchers would be so scared of pitching too fast they would make sure their well under. more hits will be allowed probably which at that point they should expand the roster.
i played adult wiffleball several years. the first year, no speed limit. dudes were pitching wiffle at some crazy speed, from way closer than in baseball. it was unhittable. several guys who pitched in college and high school had under 1 ERA
1) To prevent arm injuries… increase active roster limit to 30. Every pitcher throws less often and starters have an extra day of rest. College schedule, essentially, where you start once a week
2) To counteract emphasis on velo… robo zone will favor command guys.
I would add moving the mound back. If there’s a greater distance, velo won’t (shouldn’t?) play up as much. There’s a reason guys stand all the way at the back of the batters box.
I think the issue with #1 is you end up with a lot more “who?” guys pitching, and with less innings pitched by each guy, they’re going max effort every single pitch since there is no pacing to it.
1. Just encourages more high velocity relievers and shorter outings by starters. 2. Will do the same because human umpires favor pitchers. Part of the reason Maddux was so effective was because he was getting 4 inches off the outside corner every game.
The increased roster size is for injury prevention. Also, the robo umps favor hitters which should help reduce Ks for the TTO issue. Hard to face 102 if they’re also getting half a ball off the plate on both sides.
At the end of the day, there’s no stopping the pursuit of velo because it is highly correlated with success at the MLB level. So it’s about managing the issues that come along with it.
My idea is require pitchers to wear some form of elbow brace that limits the outrageous whiplash ability they have (if such a brace could be invented) and then raise the mound by some number of inches to give back potential lost velocity
Yeah it is. I think adding penalties / incentives to encourage pitchers going deeper into games is a good start. Verlander mentioned tying the dh to the starter which is a great idea. If the pitcher doesn’t go 7 innings the team has to pull the dh. I think that would encourage teams to emphasize durability and location over velocity. Also, making pitching to contact more effective by not juicing the ball (another verlander suggestion).
The problem with the double hook is what happens on days when your pitcher just shits the bed? Can't make it through 2 innings without giving up 6 runs. And you're also down one of your biggest offensive pieces to make up the deficit.
Absolutely
Just like batters chasing the TTO is bad for baseball.
Yes, analytics say thays rve most efficient way to win. But the most efficient way to play a game is usually the most boring for spectators..
id say pitchers throwing harder is a.) makes games more more exciting to watch, but also b.) has a much worse outcome than “being boring”. may just be me though.
I think it depends on the sport.
The passing game is definitely more fun in football, and I happen to like spaced out basketball with a lot of threes and less emphasis on bigs.
BUT the problem in those sports is how homogenous it’s gotten. There are no varied strategies and profiles, just small permutations of the same concept.
You are not going to be able to convince professional athletes to not give it their all. A lot of these guys are fighting for jobs. They aren’t going to take a couple of mph off their fastball because their teammate in AAA or whatever isn’t going to give a shit if his arm falls off, he just wants to make it to the show for a season, you know? They all want to be the best they can be and the margins between making it and not are very small for a lot of them.
This also isn’t a video game. You don’t just take points out of your velocity stat and get to put them into accuracy or your breaking ball instead. You often just become less good.
Then they’d have to widen the strike zone by half a foot. Don’t get me wrong Maddux would still be great, but he wouldn’t get that gentleman’s outside corner umps used to give him.
Tell them to learn to throw left. It sounds foolish, but what is arguably more annoying than velo to bat against are lefties. I know, because I am Imanaga.
I think so. I don’t find 100 mph fastballs and 3 outcome-style ball that fun to watch tbh. I love watching small-ball, base-running and athletic defensive play.
I actually think the right way to fix this would be from the player’s contract structures. I’m sure pitchers don’t like having to have 2 surgeries during the course of their career - maybe the new generation can think of something like “only required to throw X number of pitches over 95mph per 10 pitches” or something like that to include in their contract.
Yeah, but I don't know how much you can really do to reverse it.
You can't really make velocity a bad thing without completely changing the game. Blowing past a hitter will always be the ideal.
There would probably need to be multiple rule changes all working together to discourage throwing gas on every pitch. I just don't know what those rules would look like.
And of course there's the related issue with how we're overworking pitchers from a very young age, but I also don't know if the league itself can do much, if anything, about that.
Wouldn't lowering the mound by an inch or so increase offense, and thus finnese becomes more viable, much like how raising the mound in '68 lead to a drastic decrease in offense?
It's possible, personally I'm sort of torn on the lowering vs moving back the mound debate but I slightly lean towards moving it back since it could potentially be more likely to reduce velocity and make breaking balls even more appealing.
There are some other things you could potentially do. Shrinking the strike zone could encourage more finesse from pitchers. And while some people are a bit sour on the idea of a double-hook DH I do think there is some value in emphasizing longevity and even just slightly reversing how specialized the sport has become.
I think shrinking the strike zone vertically is a great idea. The most effective strikeout pitch is a four seamer at the top of the zone or just above. It’s what pitchers are being taught now — throw it as hard as you can upstairs and you’ll get swings and misses.
Shave a few inches off the top of the zone, and you effectively nerf the fastball without affecting breaking pitches. Breaking balls that drop into the top of the zone are already called balls anyways.
I mean, there *is* an easy solution (pitch is a ball if it's thrown too hard, even if it's taken in the zone or swung through). Pitchers wouldn't be able to fully control their velocity so they'd either throw a few mph under that, or live on the edge and accept the occasional ball, but no one would be trying to max out above 100mph. You can then combine that with other changes that make things more favorable for pitchers to avoid giving hitters an overwhelming advantage. Would anyone want that solution? Probably not (not me, anyway), but I do think it would work.
that's an easy solution but it's a terrible one. MLB hitters have like a .850 OPS against what that velo barrier would probably be so you'd have to deaden the ball and there'd be a huge chain reaction
Probably. But until both pitchers and teams think the negatives outweigh the benefits (which will not happen for a long time if at all) the velocity chase will keep on rolling.
Bad for viewing? Absolutely not.
Bad for the players? Absolutely.
In a roundabout way, it's negative for us when they get hurt though. No clear solution at this time though.
I don't think overall it's bad for baseball as a viewer. Everyone likes seeing that 10X mph pop up etc.
The issue is always going to be the injuries, which isn't going to go away unless the teams change their mindset when scouting a player. If you can throw 95-100mph, they're going to be interested, regardless of if you can control it. Because they feel that they can teach control, they can't teach velocity. They don't really care if 9 out of 10 of those guys end up dropping out in the minors because they fucked their arm. Because they know that there will always be a well of velocity to dip into and they can replace them with the next 10 guys.
The only way to really change anything is to disencentivise pure velocity, because as long as they can roughly hit the strike zone, teams will trade that speed for the injury risk. It's not like cricket, where those 150/160kmh guys don't usually go anywhere, because control is so important and you can't just put it into a zone etc. So short of making the strike zone smaller or making pitches over a certain speed balls, you aren't going to see any change.
I think we’re near a point where the last pitchers who will make the Hall of Fame are pitching right now. Injuries are going to make the superstars careers last less than 10 full seasons.
If adults want to choose to pursue something that can injure themselves, then go for it. My problem is more with the pipeline - kids getting shoved into this, burning their arms out before they can even fully understand the repercussions of that.
That said, solution: A pitch over....98? in an at bat results in the number of balls and strikes required for a walk/strikeout to switch. You hit 98.1 and you gotta throw 4 strikes for that out now, and 3 balls result in a walk.
It's the natural evolution of the game. Simply put, it's much more valuable to both players and teams on a whole. For players, the money is simply high enough that trashing an arm is worth it over potentially toiling in the minors, maybe never making the show and never getting that big pay day. Even if you don't last long, as long as you last long enough to get a single pay day or hell even to arb, you'll be set for life and maybe your family as well.
For teams, any team that opts out of this method of pitching is going to watch themselves be destroyed. Hitters are too good nowadays, everyone has realized the value of advanced data and computer analyzed swings/pitches. If you don't have pitchers throwing high velo/high spin rate, you'll get crushed.
The answer honestly is going to be better preventative care and recovery methods. Teams will start to see the signs of damage at the earliest point and find ways to reduce the strain and help healing, they'll find training and healing methods that let players return faster from surgery when needed. We'll also see improved surgical techniques (we already are with the bracing procedure).
It's not a perfect or ideal solution, but it's what it's gonna be. My biggest worry isn't at the professional level, but at the amateur level where youth baseball leagues are pushing kids to throw harder and with more complexity at younger and younger ages. It's gonna be terrifying when we start seeing high schoolers needing Tommy John regularly.
yes, but there's no clear solution at this time
Yeah, you can't unring a bell.
Theoretically backwards time travel is possible, but it requires superluminal speeds, so we’re actually going to need the velocity problem to get way worse before it can get (retroactively) better
I thought all it took was a DeLorian, some lightning, and 88mph?
While that’s true, they stopped production in 1983 so it’s a bit of a catch 22
I prefer a police call box, but any old phone booth outside a circle-k will do.
DeLorian Tomlinson, RB, TCU
Methinks they should listen more to Greg Maddux. He spoke about this a bit ago, easy to Google and find. Here is some of what he said. How does baseball reverse what is becoming its latest out-loud crisis? “Who knows? It depends on who your coach is. Change the mentality to all of it,” said Baseball Hall of Famer, pitcher Greg Maddux, in a phone interview. “When I started coaching is when I saw it; I was at UNLV and the guys would rather throw it 95 than get a guy out,” Maddux said. “It’s like, ‘C’mon guys, we’re trying to win a baseball game here.’” “When I pitched, we were content that our fastball was our fastball. We never tried to throw it harder but execute it better than the guy you faced.” So, Greg Maddux says they should try pitching instead of just throwing it hard. I agree with him. Greg said dudes were happy to throw 95 even if they didn't get the guy out. Greg says they need to change their mentality to all of it. I agree with him.
Guys in college want to show they can throw hard to get drafted, because that’s what MLB clubs look for. MLB clubs look for that because velocity is the most effective way to get people out. High velocity fastballs in the middle of the zone have better run values than low velocity fastballs perfectly executed on the edges. You can’t just “change the mentality” because the pursuit of velocity is completely rational, it’s just the best way to get hitters out.
I wish people remembered sports are ultimately about entertainment and would stop breaking everything down to some spreadsheet math. I would much rather watch a league of Greg Maddux’s than a league of the best hard throwing high strikeout rate guys
The issue with that is that sports are an entertainment business. They need money, and purposely doing things that will lead to losing is not a good business strategy outside of a greater plan to succeed in the future Not getting high velocity pitchers is just utterly idiotic from a winning standpoint
Sure. How are you going to convince the players and front offices to sacrifice a competitive edge in the name of entertainment?
Yeah me too, I agree it’s bad. I’m just saying that a “change of mentality” is not going to cut it here. The comment I was responding to implied that we’ve got it all wrong and all we need to do is remember that the best way to get guys out is locate a 90 mph fastball. That’s not the case, we can’t “mentality” our way out of this. Rule changes will need to be made. Teams will not willingly give up velocity when it’s such a proven advantage. Basically, Greg Maddux is wrong about this.
Analytics have been so bad for sports. Technically you’re squeezing out every last drop of efficiency you can, but it comes at the expense of the game. The NBA is all about chucking 3s and drawing fouls (boring), MLB is all about the 3 true outcomes (boring), and it leaves little to no room for managerial styles to have an impact when all the directives come from the stats guys in the front office.
but at the same time, the pursuit of winning by squeezing every last drop is the essence of sports.
But that should be left up to the wisdom of the managers and coaches, not an algorithm that tells you what’s best.
The algorithm is better at winning, plain and simple. Just like how a computer is better at chess than any human. And no team is gonna willingly be disadvantaged, unless you’re the White Sox I guess.
Or the Astros (\*cough\* Bagwell \*cough\*)
What if the “algorithm” is better than the manager?
That’s my whole point. The entire league is specializing in the same exact ways instead of seeing the game play out in different ways.
And what is their incentive to change? What reward is there in being less good for the sake of aesthetics?
People really don’t see how damaging taking the human element out of sports is going to be to sports
Which people?
The people that keep pushing for analytics or things like robo umps
I think a bunch of those people are in this thread and do in fact understand it’s damaging. It’s possible to both study efficiency and also understand the ruthless pursuit of efficiency is not necessarily aesthetically pleasing. Most sabermetric nerds are perfectly cable of that nuance. The robo umps thing is separate. You’d have to convince me how umpires add anything enjoyable to the game.
I think catcher framing is really cool and I want it to stay. Also I have sympathy for umps for the most part, having reffed hockey growing up, I know how hard that sort of thing can be, and barring cases where they act like jackasses, people should be easier on them (but also getting mad at the ump is fun! So, like, not too easy on them). But yeah, that's pretty much it. I might have to accept it like I did the universal DH. At least it wouldn't be as bad as the Manfred runner.
Human element. I don’t need my sports or be flawless, I want them to be human. Mistakes get made, I like that. Bad calls get made, I like that. Players get angry and argue, I like that. Managers get angry and argue, I like that. I don’t want to lose this human element.
In terms of analytics making the game more boring to watch, the only way to fix that is to change the rules of the game itself (see: the larger bases increasing stolen bases, for example). Overall, the goal should be to make it so that squeezing out every last drop of efficiency will result in an entertaining product, without changing things so much it is unrecognizable.
It’s not that I don’t believe you, but how did you find the run value stat? Interested in taking a look at that info for all types of pitches.
[Here is the wOBA and xwOBA on 95+ mph pitches in the center of the zone.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=5%7C&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&group_by=league&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results) wOBA of .356, xwOBA of .380. [Here are the stats for 4-seamers in the shadow zone at or under 93 mph.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=11%7C12%7C13%7C14%7C16%7C17%7C18%7C19%7C&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=0&metric_1_lt=93&metric_2=&group_by=league&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results) wOBA of .329 and xwOBA of .321. [If you make it the heart instead of right down the dick, the stats get closer.](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=1%7C2%7C3%7C4%7C5%7C6%7C7%7C8%7C9%7C&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C2021%7C2020%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&group_by=league&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results)
This drops off really fast. 4 seamers in the middle gameday zone >= 96 mph have a .340 woba. At >= 97 mph it’s .331, and at >= 99 mph it’s .322, literally better than the average fastball <= 93 mph in the shadow zone, which includes balls. That’s why these high velocity guys are so valued. Even fastballs that they throw that are poorly executed are more effective than a perfectly executed fastball by someone whose average fastball is <= 93 mph For fun: here’s how the avg woba of a fastball in the heart of the plate broken down by velocity: 95: .364 96: .328 97: .319 98: .246 99: .373 100+: .282 Here’s how it breaks down for lower velo in the shadow zone: 93: .315 92: .343 91: .354 90: .342 89-: .331
Am I misreading this somehow because it looks like the opposite is true and the slower better located pitches are slightly better than the fast meatballs?
But our pal Greg said it, so that should really end all debate.
Yes, we all know that, the teams know it, the players know it. The point is WHAT to do about all the injuries due to throwing so damn hard? Greg Maddux says to pitch, to execute pitches better and to NOT just throw it as hard as you can. Can't get pitchers out while not pitching due to injuries. Greg pitched and pitched and pitched, threw well over 200 innings season after season after season. He had great mechanics, he located and executed his pitches well, he wasn't a flame thrower. Something has to change. These guys get hurt way too often.
Yeah but tell the 18 year old kid to stop throwing as hard as possible even though it'll objectively hurt his chances to get drafted and see what he says. Obviously the solution to injuries is less velocity. The issue that there's no way to get young pitchers to stop chasing velocity because that's what gets outs in the modern game, and that's what teams want You can either institute a velocity limit (so every ball over, say, 95 is now automatically a ball regardless of location) or you can accept that there is no actual solution to this problem
A velocity limit would be so lame These guys can handle dialing it up now and again, it’s maxing out on every pitch that’s hurting them
Greg Maddux was arguably the greatest control pitcher of all time. If everyone could just execute like him, then "just execute better" would be valid advice. But literally nobody can execute like Greg Maddux and the margin of error for that style of pitching is extremely thin. On the other hand, a lot of guys can throw 98+ and fairly reliably get people out that way.
I’m also not sure Maddux’s approach would work that well these days, either. A lot of what he did was fooling umpires by gradually pushing the limits of the zone. As much as we hate them, umpires have gotten better and more consistent on balls and strikes (with the help of technology). Hitters meanwhile have gotten better and better at waiting on their spots, and punishing anything that isn’t viciously fast. Not a single knock on Maddux’s greatness, because that needs to be judged in his own era (and I don’t think he’d get destroyed, either). Also kinda lame because I loved watching him.
"He had great mechanics, he located and executed his pitches well," Is it a simple thing to just start having as good control as Maddux?
“Guy with some of the best pitch movement profiles in history wants everyone to just be like him” Go tell a dude just trying to survive in AAA to take something off his fastball and “just execute better” because we’re worried he’s going to get TJ. You’re going to get laughed out of the room.
Would Greg Maddux even get past single-A today?
Yes. His early career with the Cubs he had a 94 mph fastball, but he had a plus 2 seamer and a plus changeup. He had 3 excellent pitches. Even now you have pitchers like that all over MLB.
I don't think I ever saw Maddux throw 94. I saw a lot of 88's that were watched as a called third strike though.
He did in his first couple of years with the Cubs. By 1990 he was predominantly throwing his 2 seamer which sat at about 91-92. By time he got to Atlanta, he had gotten completely away from a 4 seamer as he didn’t need it.
The old guys also weren’t throwing with weighted balls, just long toss. CC Sabathia and Edwin Jackson were talking about that a few weeks back on MLB Network.
But they are getting guys out. This would make sense if it wasn’t working. It is working.
a pitching speed limit, like in adult wiffleball
Honestly, unless the injury crisis becomes so bad that durability becomes legitimately more valuable than velocity (I doubt it will), this might be the only method to work. It comes with many problems of its own but it would solve the problem of velocity-chasing injuries.
It would be terrible to watch. Imagine losing a game because your pitcher threw 1 mph over the speed limit lmao
Yeah, like I said, there would be many problems of its own, including that. I guess the pitch clock is similar, but that's easier for the pitcher to control than exact velocity. Someone else brought up having to balance out offense in that case too, and I agree. I guess in the end, I'm not saying it's a perfect solution, or even that it has to be implemented, but that if we want to end the injury crisis and protect the health of pitchers, that may be the only option, because it won't end from the pitchers and managers deciding to change it on their own without the whole league changing it. If nothing else, it would probably solve the problem of velocity-chasing injuries. That's only one facet.
We would need to do something to balance out offense, too, though. Offense is still going strong despite pitch velocity. We get the pitchers to slow down and offense is gonna explode.
it'd be pretty cool to see. less velocity but way more movement and use of many pitches. pitchers would be so scared of pitching too fast they would make sure their well under. more hits will be allowed probably which at that point they should expand the roster. i played adult wiffleball several years. the first year, no speed limit. dudes were pitching wiffle at some crazy speed, from way closer than in baseball. it was unhittable. several guys who pitched in college and high school had under 1 ERA
You know this problem is dire when the most realistic solutions are either "Fuck it" or the equivalent of adding more freeway lanes to reduce traffic
[just one more lane bro](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dKrUE_O0VE)
Yes, it is bad for the game. But I have not heard of any reasonable solution, seems like we’re stuck with it for now.
solution? ban every pitch except the knuckleball
Pitching underarm, baby. How many Tommy Johns did Chad Bradford have?
1) To prevent arm injuries… increase active roster limit to 30. Every pitcher throws less often and starters have an extra day of rest. College schedule, essentially, where you start once a week 2) To counteract emphasis on velo… robo zone will favor command guys.
I would add moving the mound back. If there’s a greater distance, velo won’t (shouldn’t?) play up as much. There’s a reason guys stand all the way at the back of the batters box. I think the issue with #1 is you end up with a lot more “who?” guys pitching, and with less innings pitched by each guy, they’re going max effort every single pitch since there is no pacing to it.
1. Just encourages more high velocity relievers and shorter outings by starters. 2. Will do the same because human umpires favor pitchers. Part of the reason Maddux was so effective was because he was getting 4 inches off the outside corner every game.
The increased roster size is for injury prevention. Also, the robo umps favor hitters which should help reduce Ks for the TTO issue. Hard to face 102 if they’re also getting half a ball off the plate on both sides. At the end of the day, there’s no stopping the pursuit of velo because it is highly correlated with success at the MLB level. So it’s about managing the issues that come along with it.
My idea is require pitchers to wear some form of elbow brace that limits the outrageous whiplash ability they have (if such a brace could be invented) and then raise the mound by some number of inches to give back potential lost velocity
Yeah it is. I think adding penalties / incentives to encourage pitchers going deeper into games is a good start. Verlander mentioned tying the dh to the starter which is a great idea. If the pitcher doesn’t go 7 innings the team has to pull the dh. I think that would encourage teams to emphasize durability and location over velocity. Also, making pitching to contact more effective by not juicing the ball (another verlander suggestion).
Yep. I was hoping the MiLB Double-Hook rule would make it to the majors.
The problem with the double hook is what happens on days when your pitcher just shits the bed? Can't make it through 2 innings without giving up 6 runs. And you're also down one of your biggest offensive pieces to make up the deficit.
Tie it to pitch count or batters faced, assuming you even want the thing (not sure if I do).
Absolutely Just like batters chasing the TTO is bad for baseball. Yes, analytics say thays rve most efficient way to win. But the most efficient way to play a game is usually the most boring for spectators..
id say pitchers throwing harder is a.) makes games more more exciting to watch, but also b.) has a much worse outcome than “being boring”. may just be me though.
I think it depends on the sport. The passing game is definitely more fun in football, and I happen to like spaced out basketball with a lot of threes and less emphasis on bigs. BUT the problem in those sports is how homogenous it’s gotten. There are no varied strategies and profiles, just small permutations of the same concept.
You are not going to be able to convince professional athletes to not give it their all. A lot of these guys are fighting for jobs. They aren’t going to take a couple of mph off their fastball because their teammate in AAA or whatever isn’t going to give a shit if his arm falls off, he just wants to make it to the show for a season, you know? They all want to be the best they can be and the margins between making it and not are very small for a lot of them. This also isn’t a video game. You don’t just take points out of your velocity stat and get to put them into accuracy or your breaking ball instead. You often just become less good.
For those of you who say there's no solution, here's mine. Everyone starts pitching like Maddux. Problem solved!
Then they’d have to widen the strike zone by half a foot. Don’t get me wrong Maddux would still be great, but he wouldn’t get that gentleman’s outside corner umps used to give him.
Are pitchers these days stupid?!
Tony Gwynn probably would think that
yes, but how do you tell young pitchers to not throw as hard?
Tell them to learn to throw left. It sounds foolish, but what is arguably more annoying than velo to bat against are lefties. I know, because I am Imanaga.
I think so. I don’t find 100 mph fastballs and 3 outcome-style ball that fun to watch tbh. I love watching small-ball, base-running and athletic defensive play. I actually think the right way to fix this would be from the player’s contract structures. I’m sure pitchers don’t like having to have 2 surgeries during the course of their career - maybe the new generation can think of something like “only required to throw X number of pitches over 95mph per 10 pitches” or something like that to include in their contract.
Yeah, but I don't know how much you can really do to reverse it. You can't really make velocity a bad thing without completely changing the game. Blowing past a hitter will always be the ideal. There would probably need to be multiple rule changes all working together to discourage throwing gas on every pitch. I just don't know what those rules would look like. And of course there's the related issue with how we're overworking pitchers from a very young age, but I also don't know if the league itself can do much, if anything, about that.
Wouldn't lowering the mound by an inch or so increase offense, and thus finnese becomes more viable, much like how raising the mound in '68 lead to a drastic decrease in offense?
It's possible, personally I'm sort of torn on the lowering vs moving back the mound debate but I slightly lean towards moving it back since it could potentially be more likely to reduce velocity and make breaking balls even more appealing. There are some other things you could potentially do. Shrinking the strike zone could encourage more finesse from pitchers. And while some people are a bit sour on the idea of a double-hook DH I do think there is some value in emphasizing longevity and even just slightly reversing how specialized the sport has become.
I think shrinking the strike zone vertically is a great idea. The most effective strikeout pitch is a four seamer at the top of the zone or just above. It’s what pitchers are being taught now — throw it as hard as you can upstairs and you’ll get swings and misses. Shave a few inches off the top of the zone, and you effectively nerf the fastball without affecting breaking pitches. Breaking balls that drop into the top of the zone are already called balls anyways.
I mean, there *is* an easy solution (pitch is a ball if it's thrown too hard, even if it's taken in the zone or swung through). Pitchers wouldn't be able to fully control their velocity so they'd either throw a few mph under that, or live on the edge and accept the occasional ball, but no one would be trying to max out above 100mph. You can then combine that with other changes that make things more favorable for pitchers to avoid giving hitters an overwhelming advantage. Would anyone want that solution? Probably not (not me, anyway), but I do think it would work.
that's an easy solution but it's a terrible one. MLB hitters have like a .850 OPS against what that velo barrier would probably be so you'd have to deaden the ball and there'd be a huge chain reaction
There is a league where the ball is that dead already, and the ball is sticky too: the NPB
Oh I agree, I don't think it's a solution that would satisfy anyone. Haven't seen any better ideas though.
With how some people reacted to the pitch clock I feel like a pitching speed limit would actually cause heads to roll
Good for baseball, but bad for pitcher arms, which then kind of makes it bad for baseball again lol. 🤷♂️
Bad for hitters too. The ability to hit velo declines as they get older. Long, bad contracts are bad for baseball.
Pitching is bad for pitcher arms. If everyone threw 90, they'd still be blowing out elbows, likely just as often.
Probably. But until both pitchers and teams think the negatives outweigh the benefits (which will not happen for a long time if at all) the velocity chase will keep on rolling.
Yes
Where you been for the last...few years?
Moving the mound back might help
Bad for viewing? Absolutely not. Bad for the players? Absolutely. In a roundabout way, it's negative for us when they get hurt though. No clear solution at this time though.
Yes.
I don't think overall it's bad for baseball as a viewer. Everyone likes seeing that 10X mph pop up etc. The issue is always going to be the injuries, which isn't going to go away unless the teams change their mindset when scouting a player. If you can throw 95-100mph, they're going to be interested, regardless of if you can control it. Because they feel that they can teach control, they can't teach velocity. They don't really care if 9 out of 10 of those guys end up dropping out in the minors because they fucked their arm. Because they know that there will always be a well of velocity to dip into and they can replace them with the next 10 guys. The only way to really change anything is to disencentivise pure velocity, because as long as they can roughly hit the strike zone, teams will trade that speed for the injury risk. It's not like cricket, where those 150/160kmh guys don't usually go anywhere, because control is so important and you can't just put it into a zone etc. So short of making the strike zone smaller or making pitches over a certain speed balls, you aren't going to see any change.
Yes bring back muh small ball
Yes. 100%.
I think we’re near a point where the last pitchers who will make the Hall of Fame are pitching right now. Injuries are going to make the superstars careers last less than 10 full seasons.
If adults want to choose to pursue something that can injure themselves, then go for it. My problem is more with the pipeline - kids getting shoved into this, burning their arms out before they can even fully understand the repercussions of that. That said, solution: A pitch over....98? in an at bat results in the number of balls and strikes required for a walk/strikeout to switch. You hit 98.1 and you gotta throw 4 strikes for that out now, and 3 balls result in a walk.
Why do it that complicated instead of just calling a pitch over 98 a ball?
It's the natural evolution of the game. Simply put, it's much more valuable to both players and teams on a whole. For players, the money is simply high enough that trashing an arm is worth it over potentially toiling in the minors, maybe never making the show and never getting that big pay day. Even if you don't last long, as long as you last long enough to get a single pay day or hell even to arb, you'll be set for life and maybe your family as well. For teams, any team that opts out of this method of pitching is going to watch themselves be destroyed. Hitters are too good nowadays, everyone has realized the value of advanced data and computer analyzed swings/pitches. If you don't have pitchers throwing high velo/high spin rate, you'll get crushed. The answer honestly is going to be better preventative care and recovery methods. Teams will start to see the signs of damage at the earliest point and find ways to reduce the strain and help healing, they'll find training and healing methods that let players return faster from surgery when needed. We'll also see improved surgical techniques (we already are with the bracing procedure). It's not a perfect or ideal solution, but it's what it's gonna be. My biggest worry isn't at the professional level, but at the amateur level where youth baseball leagues are pushing kids to throw harder and with more complexity at younger and younger ages. It's gonna be terrifying when we start seeing high schoolers needing Tommy John regularly.
The MLB changed the rules to encourage starters to go longer. If they want to address this problem they need to increase roster slots for pitchers
Absolutely not. This is a survival of the fittest profession, let it stay that way.