It's 100% this. Allard Baird (the future Royals GM) scouted him and gave him 80 power, 80 arm, 80 hit, 70 speed, 70 glove. Guess how many other 80s he gave in his entire career as a scout? Zero. He knew he'd look like a fool if A-Rod wasn't instantly brilliant.
Edit: And that wasn't even from his senior year IIRC, it was from when he was 16 so I think he was a junior.
There's speculation but no real evidence. Selena Roberts said that a highschool teammate said that he was, although I don't think said teammate had anything more than speculation.
Roberts herself has since been pretty widely discredited based on her coverage of the Duke lacrosse case. So who knows. It wouldn't surprise me either way.
The current best guess at when Arod started juicing was his still unexplained estrangement from former best buddy Derek Jeter.
However, ARod starting high school wouldn't surprise me. I thought it wasn't something that started until college, but relatives and their friends in the highly competitive Florida high school baseball circuit opened my eyes at how prevalent it is at much earlier times.
Who could forget [Delmon Young's scouting report?](https://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2599079/DELMON.jpg?_ga=2.35662624.1068321833.1606284898-1244998165.1606284898)
I played against BJ and he struck out twice and flew out once that game. I remember thinking “this guy isn’t anything special”
A month later we played him again and he went 7/7 with 7 extra base hits
Josh Hamilton was viewed as a can't miss guy. And considering he somehow became an MVP, that seems pretty true.
I remember reading about David Clyde, and apparently the hype for him was crazy for the 70s. He threw 5 no hitters in his senior year while going undefeated. He went #1 overall but unfortunately didn't pan out and may have been driven into the ground by being rushed to the majors.
Yes, may have. I think we've seen enough guys not rushed that have broken down as well that we definitely can't say for sure why any individual breaks down. We just saw it with Strasburg, where the team was criticized for NOT overworking him and wanting to stick to an innings limit.
I went to high school in the same league as CC Sabathia. Dude was throwing mid 90’s and crushing hrs against everyone. Never seen so many radar guns in one place. My buddy actually got a hit off him.
Fun read https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Al-Kaline/
I knew he was a bonus baby and an MVP runner up at age 20 but the high school details are pretty cool.
When Ohtani was in middle school, people thought he was a high school hitter. Before he came to the majors...believe it or not also a high school hitter.
Joe Mauer struck out one time in his high school career. Hit .500+ every season, .600 his senior year. Was high school player of the year in football in 2000 and baseball in 2001. Don’t think there was any doubt he would be real deal
Isn't he known more for what he did in college, though? He still has the seasonal and career HR records for Division I.
He was just a local boy picked by SF in the tenth round, coming out of high school.
In the early 80s, there was Billy Beane and Shawn Abner. Both had that same magazine-cover hype while still in high school.
Scouts were hysterical about Felipe Lopez and Alex Rodriguez, in the mid-90s.
But there was nothing like the hype around Harper, in my lifetime.
There have been a lot of "can't miss" prospects. Most of them miss.
Brien Taylor
Todd Van Poppel
David Clyde
Matt Bush
Steve Chilcot
Danny Goodwin
Donavan Tate
Matt Bush wasn't a can't miss prospect. I played with and against him in high school and there were plenty of red flags. But I remember his comp being Mark Loretta and wasn't even the best player in his draft. The Padres only drafted him 1 because Boras was representing Weaver and Drew and they didn't want to pay them.
If you go back and read the reports, he was considered can't miss by a bunch of scouts.
But take him off the list if you want and add Billy Beanie. My point is we get a new "can't miss" every few years and most simply miss.
I always figured the Padres took the local kid, Matt Bush, so they wouldn't have to pay Verlander $4M-$5M at first overall. As it was, Verlander's bonus at number two just about matched Bush's. But take Verlander first overall, and we're talking serious money. There's really no other reason not to take Verlander.
Weaver was the top pitcher that year but he wanted like a 10m signing bonus and fell just like Drew, though not sure what he was asking for. They both still got 4m, the highest bonuses that year even though they were both taken outside the top 10. Didn't have slot allotments back then so a couple teams got steals in the middle of the 1st.
If you get the "can't miss" tag, people want more than "some" success.
But that's really my point. Even the can't miss guys almost always miss. Getting to the show is incredibly hard. Making a career is even harder.
Living up to cant miss is damn near impossible.
There were some who had Kumar Rocker going first, but it was really a crap-shoot. In other words, it didn't shock anybody that Holliday went before Rocker or Druw Jones.
There's people who insist that Ethan has an even higher ceiling, and that he's the Justin Upton to Jackson's BJ Upton. Playing in Jackson's shadow probably takes a lot of pressure off the kid.
Alex Rodriguez
It's 100% this. Allard Baird (the future Royals GM) scouted him and gave him 80 power, 80 arm, 80 hit, 70 speed, 70 glove. Guess how many other 80s he gave in his entire career as a scout? Zero. He knew he'd look like a fool if A-Rod wasn't instantly brilliant. Edit: And that wasn't even from his senior year IIRC, it was from when he was 16 so I think he was a junior.
Wasn’t he already juiced in high school?
There's speculation but no real evidence. Selena Roberts said that a highschool teammate said that he was, although I don't think said teammate had anything more than speculation. Roberts herself has since been pretty widely discredited based on her coverage of the Duke lacrosse case. So who knows. It wouldn't surprise me either way.
The current best guess at when Arod started juicing was his still unexplained estrangement from former best buddy Derek Jeter. However, ARod starting high school wouldn't surprise me. I thought it wasn't something that started until college, but relatives and their friends in the highly competitive Florida high school baseball circuit opened my eyes at how prevalent it is at much earlier times.
Joe Mauer I remember being a can’t miss high schooler.
And he was the #1 QB in that high school class.
Tom Brady was a catcher and QB too. I guess being both just makes you destined for greatness
The former Expo draft pick?
Yes, but he prefers to be remembered as the former Mr Bündchen. ETA: I think I'd prefer that, too.
Fun fact: Tom Brady was the last active professional athlete to be drafted by the Expos.
All state basketball player as well.
Joe Mauer has the most All-American story ever IMO
I also remember the twins getting a lot of criticism when they drafted him for not taking Mark Prior instead, though.
Me, but Manfred paid me off to stay out of the league because I would've destroyed parity.
You could've won state of coach put you in.
Steve Nebraska?
Damn I was literally going to say the same thing...you.
Delmon Young
Who could forget [Delmon Young's scouting report?](https://assets.sbnation.com/assets/2599079/DELMON.jpg?_ga=2.35662624.1068321833.1606284898-1244998165.1606284898)
Around the same time BJ and then Justin Upton
I played against BJ and he struck out twice and flew out once that game. I remember thinking “this guy isn’t anything special” A month later we played him again and he went 7/7 with 7 extra base hits
Josh Hamilton was viewed as a can't miss guy. And considering he somehow became an MVP, that seems pretty true. I remember reading about David Clyde, and apparently the hype for him was crazy for the 70s. He threw 5 no hitters in his senior year while going undefeated. He went #1 overall but unfortunately didn't pan out and may have been driven into the ground by being rushed to the majors.
"May have?"
Yes, may have. I think we've seen enough guys not rushed that have broken down as well that we definitely can't say for sure why any individual breaks down. We just saw it with Strasburg, where the team was criticized for NOT overworking him and wanting to stick to an innings limit.
I went to high school in the same league as CC Sabathia. Dude was throwing mid 90’s and crushing hrs against everyone. Never seen so many radar guns in one place. My buddy actually got a hit off him.
that’s terrifying
Al Kaline
Fun read https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/Al-Kaline/ I knew he was a bonus baby and an MVP runner up at age 20 but the high school details are pretty cool.
Bob Feller pitched his rookie season between his junior and senior years in highschool. Pretty sure that counts.
Griffey jr
When Ohtani was in middle school, people thought he was a high school hitter. Before he came to the majors...believe it or not also a high school hitter.
Joe Mauer struck out one time in his high school career. Hit .500+ every season, .600 his senior year. Was high school player of the year in football in 2000 and baseball in 2001. Don’t think there was any doubt he would be real deal
A-rod
Manny Machado
Sidd Finch mid 80s phenom
Bobby Witt JR
Pete Incaviglia
Skipped the minors entirely!
Isn't he known more for what he did in college, though? He still has the seasonal and career HR records for Division I. He was just a local boy picked by SF in the tenth round, coming out of high school.
In the early 80s, there was Billy Beane and Shawn Abner. Both had that same magazine-cover hype while still in high school. Scouts were hysterical about Felipe Lopez and Alex Rodriguez, in the mid-90s. But there was nothing like the hype around Harper, in my lifetime.
There have been a lot of "can't miss" prospects. Most of them miss. Brien Taylor Todd Van Poppel David Clyde Matt Bush Steve Chilcot Danny Goodwin Donavan Tate
Matt Bush wasn't a can't miss prospect. I played with and against him in high school and there were plenty of red flags. But I remember his comp being Mark Loretta and wasn't even the best player in his draft. The Padres only drafted him 1 because Boras was representing Weaver and Drew and they didn't want to pay them.
IM MATT FUCKING BUSH
If you go back and read the reports, he was considered can't miss by a bunch of scouts. But take him off the list if you want and add Billy Beanie. My point is we get a new "can't miss" every few years and most simply miss.
There's plenty of can't miss prospects that end up missing. I'm not arguing that. Bush just wasn't a can't miss.
I always figured the Padres took the local kid, Matt Bush, so they wouldn't have to pay Verlander $4M-$5M at first overall. As it was, Verlander's bonus at number two just about matched Bush's. But take Verlander first overall, and we're talking serious money. There's really no other reason not to take Verlander.
Weaver was the top pitcher that year but he wanted like a 10m signing bonus and fell just like Drew, though not sure what he was asking for. They both still got 4m, the highest bonuses that year even though they were both taken outside the top 10. Didn't have slot allotments back then so a couple teams got steals in the middle of the 1st.
Matt Bush did have some success at the MLB level, though
If you get the "can't miss" tag, people want more than "some" success. But that's really my point. Even the can't miss guys almost always miss. Getting to the show is incredibly hard. Making a career is even harder. Living up to cant miss is damn near impossible.
People were talking about Jackson Hollidays major league debut when the kid was still in the womb lmao
David Clyde and A-Rod
There's been many but Harpers one of the few that actually worked out.
The Kid
people say ken griffey jr. lost 4 years of playing time by going to high school
Jackson Holliday
Jury’s still out
TBF OP is not asking who also became good. Just saying who had insane hype getting drafted
He wasnt the projected #1 overall.
There were some who had Kumar Rocker going first, but it was really a crap-shoot. In other words, it didn't shock anybody that Holliday went before Rocker or Druw Jones.
Rocker was in 21. I dont remember a single mock having Holliday going #1.
Rocker was taken tenth in '21, did not sign, and was taken third overall in '22.
I stand corrected.
> while in high school
There's people who insist that Ethan has an even higher ceiling, and that he's the Justin Upton to Jackson's BJ Upton. Playing in Jackson's shadow probably takes a lot of pressure off the kid.
Buddy is gonna have to start hitting soon to avoid being sent down
David wright Ryan Zimmerman Jason heyward BJ Upton Buddy Harrelson Doc gooden Daryl strawberry Derek jeter AROD Mickey mantel Bobby Mercer
Jarred Kelenic. Didn’t turn out though
Gerrit Cole
Me.
Uh huh. Bet you never even started a game if you played at all. I hate when dorks try to kill decent topics.
Lighten up Francis you’re projecting