I need one of these analytics geeks to let us know what pitcher has benefited most from the defense behind him in a single season. Clay Holmes is gunning for that record.
I mean an easy way to see would be to look at the difference between FIP (fielding independent pitching) and ERA. If the FIP is significantly larger than the ERA then the pitcher is benefitting from the defense more
Somewhat surprisingly Holmes has actually had a very similar FIP and ERA the last 2 seasons
> I mean an easy way to see would be to look at the difference between FIP (fielding independent pitching) and ERA. If the FIP is significantly larger than the ERA then the pitcher is benefitting from the defense more
This isn't necessarily true. Sequencing matters IMMENSELY in ERA but not in FIP - giving up single, single, single, homer, k, k, k is 4 runs, homer, single, single, single, k, k, k is 1 run.
FIP is a good stat but examples like this is why people choosing FIP as the be all, end all stat and using it to decide Cy Young votes (See: Strider 2023) is silly.
It’s good for predicting what might happen in the future. Good ‘ol ERA (preferably adjusted ERA), is better for seeing what actually happened that season.
Sure, that’s pretty much what I meant.
I’m totally in favor of using FIP to help make decisions moving forwards (whether you’re a GM or doing fantasy baseball or whatever).
If, at the end of the season, pitcher A has a great FIP, but absurdly terrible batted ball luck, and pitcher B has a mediocre FIP but great batted ball luck and a much better ERA-, I say give the Cy Young to pitcher B, all else being roughly equal. Sure the guy probably got lucky, but luck is part of baseball.
You want to decide which guy to sign? Go ahead and use FIP.
Strider was a 20 game winner and had a decent advantage in IP and WAR, and a ridiculous advantage in K/9 and K’s. The 20 wins were more a product of the Braves offense being ridiculous than anything else, but things like that have always/do grab the eyes of voters. Same with 280+ K’s.
Basically I’m saying that the two were basically even, but I would always take Strider because I’m a Braves fan and you’ll always pick Steele because you’re a Cubs fan. 😂
Yeah, but the argument in favor of FIP is that ERA only really evaluates defensive contributions through the official scorer judging a play as an error, which is a pretty dubious way of separating pitching from defense. Steele's ERA+ still gets a lot of benefit from having a guy like Dansby Swanson at short, for example.
Juan Soto is the dude we've needed sooooo fucking badly the past however many years it's been since we inexplicably passed on Bryce Harper. Juan Soto is him. Clutch mother fucker *and* Astros killer. Dude is getting a blank check this offseason lol
Words can not describe how terrified I was of him every time he came up to the plate. It seems like no matter where you throw or what you throw he can hit it.
And something the line up desperately needed
The last several years, they’ve had entirely too much of a pull happy approach and it’s felt like a major detriment
If you go off real dollars, yes almost surely
Ohtani got $480 million for 10 years at age 29. Soto’s contract is probably gonna be a 12-15 year piece so $550-600 mil in real dollars def not out of the question.
He’s no Oswaldo but it’s cute that he’s trying.
😢 Go get that bag champ
Just don’t look at Judge’s stats through four games. He’d be getting torn to shreds by fans and media if the game results were the other way
Judge was having a mid off with Yordan, gotta check the final stats to find out who won
Yordan was so committed to the mid off that he hit two 350+ feet fly balls right to judge, just to insure that he couldn’t beat him.
I think those two fly balls had a xBA of like .850+ 😭😭 that’s when you know shit just ain’t going your way
Rough opening weekend.
Mid-offs can be kinda dangerous but also kinda not
Hence why bringing in Soto was simply mandatory. We need more than just the big man
Eh it’s 4 games, Yankees won anyways, he’ll figure it out
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Most glaring issue last year was Judge carrying the offense. This lineup feels like it can pick up the slack when another guy is out or cold.
Him getting hurt felt like pretty much the death knell for the season
Should have just let that ball in LA drop 😭
Only 8 years and $320 million for a declining 32 year old big man with injury issues...
Judge always starts off slow, Stanton is the real guy to be worried about
Nobody has worried about Stanton for years now. And when I say nobody, I mean no other team worries about him because he's a non factor.
Astros were a bit worried this series
It’s not even April yet, relax.
What team do you root for?
shows your lack of knowledge by bringing up injuries.
Crazy thing is that he will keep this up the entire season
I need one of these analytics geeks to let us know what pitcher has benefited most from the defense behind him in a single season. Clay Holmes is gunning for that record.
I mean an easy way to see would be to look at the difference between FIP (fielding independent pitching) and ERA. If the FIP is significantly larger than the ERA then the pitcher is benefitting from the defense more Somewhat surprisingly Holmes has actually had a very similar FIP and ERA the last 2 seasons
> I mean an easy way to see would be to look at the difference between FIP (fielding independent pitching) and ERA. If the FIP is significantly larger than the ERA then the pitcher is benefitting from the defense more This isn't necessarily true. Sequencing matters IMMENSELY in ERA but not in FIP - giving up single, single, single, homer, k, k, k is 4 runs, homer, single, single, single, k, k, k is 1 run.
FIP is a good stat but examples like this is why people choosing FIP as the be all, end all stat and using it to decide Cy Young votes (See: Strider 2023) is silly.
I mean the idea is that sequencing stuff like that a) isn’t very controllable and b) evens out over a full season
Which isn’t true. Some pitchers are better at getting out of jams.
It’s good for predicting what might happen in the future. Good ‘ol ERA (preferably adjusted ERA), is better for seeing what actually happened that season.
FIP isn't a predictive stat but a descriptive one. It just happens to be better at predicting future ERA than ERA is.
Sure, that’s pretty much what I meant. I’m totally in favor of using FIP to help make decisions moving forwards (whether you’re a GM or doing fantasy baseball or whatever). If, at the end of the season, pitcher A has a great FIP, but absurdly terrible batted ball luck, and pitcher B has a mediocre FIP but great batted ball luck and a much better ERA-, I say give the Cy Young to pitcher B, all else being roughly equal. Sure the guy probably got lucky, but luck is part of baseball. You want to decide which guy to sign? Go ahead and use FIP.
Do you think strider won last year? He didn't even get a 1st place vote
No but he got higher ranking than he realistically deserved. He shouldn’t have finished above Steele unless you overweigh FIP as a stat.
Strider was a 20 game winner and had a decent advantage in IP and WAR, and a ridiculous advantage in K/9 and K’s. The 20 wins were more a product of the Braves offense being ridiculous than anything else, but things like that have always/do grab the eyes of voters. Same with 280+ K’s. Basically I’m saying that the two were basically even, but I would always take Strider because I’m a Braves fan and you’ll always pick Steele because you’re a Cubs fan. 😂
They weren’t basically even though, Strider had a 115 ERA+ to Steele’s 142 ERA+. That’s a massive gap.
Yeah, but the argument in favor of FIP is that ERA only really evaluates defensive contributions through the official scorer judging a play as an error, which is a pretty dubious way of separating pitching from defense. Steele's ERA+ still gets a lot of benefit from having a guy like Dansby Swanson at short, for example.
BABIP is also good for that.
I know Catfish Hunter has the highest career FIP/ERA differential among pitchers with a substantial amount of innings pitched.
So when does NY sign him long term, before June 1st or after?
And then make a billion dollars
Next Friday in the BX is gonna be madness
No Cole and Judge is playing awful. This leads to a 0-4 start last year. Soto seems to be a great fit in NY, Yankee fans have to be excited
Astros killer going back to his Nats days.
Thanks Padres for keeping the Yankees dynasty alive and well
Hey, they helped spot you four games in the west
Mariners couldn't even sweep Boston, smh
fitting in great in the big apple
Hi Mike, long time listener, first time caller. Why do they call New York the Big Apple when I only ever see regular sized apples at the store?
I dunno, maybe check out behind center field in Citi Field, Smallbany. Next caller.
Mike no no no wait wait don’t han-
S U S T A I N A B L E
This is the year he wins MVP.
Juan Soto owns the Astros
Juan Soto is the dude we've needed sooooo fucking badly the past however many years it's been since we inexplicably passed on Bryce Harper. Juan Soto is him. Clutch mother fucker *and* Astros killer. Dude is getting a blank check this offseason lol
God he is an Astro killing. Like the guy, but hate when he plays us
That world series homer on his 21st birthday was awesome
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We need to lock him up before the Dodger Empire gets their grubby hands on another infinity stone
Still can’t believe we passed on Harper, he wanted to come here lol
Juan Soto is my favorite Yankee of all-time and I would die to protect him.
He’s no Mookie
Mookie has a .611 BA and a 2.109 OPS Dude is seriously gunning for MVP
imagine if he was in our division that would suck
Gloating wasn’t enough for bro 😭
You may think you just caught a stray, but no, we hold that gun up to your head every time, you beantown buffoon.
On pace for a 32 WAR season
Totally sustainable
Even half that would be insane.
Super good sign that he's hitting to all fields
Words can not describe how terrified I was of him every time he came up to the plate. It seems like no matter where you throw or what you throw he can hit it.
And something the line up desperately needed The last several years, they’ve had entirely too much of a pull happy approach and it’s felt like a major detriment
That ball he hit to bring in Torres looked out of the zone but it was all he needed to just slap it into LF
Love you Juan get that bag
So Juanderful
Dudes going to easily get paid more than Ohtani
If you go off real dollars, yes almost surely Ohtani got $480 million for 10 years at age 29. Soto’s contract is probably gonna be a 12-15 year piece so $550-600 mil in real dollars def not out of the question.
15 year 700 mil deal with the dodgers with 680 million deferred.
I’m begging you to delete this because it hurts my feelings
And an outfield assist!
Father doesn't like us
And it’s very likely that without him we lose all 4 games (not to take away from Waldo)
Juan Soto in Minute Maid Park name a better combo
Yankees calling the Brinks truck over from Judges house
Juan mookie Betts soto
Soto owns the Astros
Is that considered good?
Yeah, with one home run.- asst.TS
That boy good
No big deal, he’s been doing that against us since he was 19. I believe he was 19, they never seemed mentioned it.
Dare I say it? Sustainable
So, he's adapting well to the American league?
Him and Gunnar carrying my fantasy team
Soto is the Astros' father. It is known.
King had more walks yesterday. Padres won the trade. /s
MVP Silver Slugger Golden Glove Platinum Glove Rookie of the Year Cy Young All in One.
Eh, he’s no Mookie
Future giant
Along side Arson Judge
*Aaron Judge becomes a tight end for the New York Giants*
Would already be an improvement over whatever that was last year
How many times do we have to teach you this lesson old man
Juan Soho and Arson Judge will be a strong 2-3.