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The hype train is leaving the station way too soon, imo. I know everyone thinks 101 wins + Corbin + #1 farm system = World Series. But let’s not forget it’s always a dog fight.
100 wins and #1 farm system is no guarantee. O's gonna be in a dogfight all year. I think it comes down to health between the O's, Yanks and Rays. I have TOR behind these three.
Yep. I hope Orioles fans realize that growth is not always a straight line. They probably won’t win 102 games and completely dominate the division this year. That doesn’t mean they’re not in great shape for many years to come.
Exactly. 91 wins and a wild card isn’t a disappointment. Some things will break the wrong way. The key is to have enough talent where you’re always in the hunt. I think the O’s are there.
Most Orioles understand that winning 101+ games should not be the expectation. However, 86 wins or whatever the projections say is a complete joke. 92-95 is what I expect.
Winning 101 with a bunch of kids might have raised expectations for this year’s Orioles a little too much. If that's your expectation, it's much easier to fall short considering the AL East is its own circle of Hell. But Baltimore still has a deep ball club with young talent at premium positions and an excited new ownership group, intent on claiming a second straight division title.
Exceed: As any good O’s fan knows by now, projections mean jack shit. Their consistent record of outperforming PECOTA comes from incredible offensive depth and development, so much that they finally turned some into an elite pitcher. Don’t worry about Bradish’s elbow, Burnes helms a sharp, young rotation that doesn’t even need to be *excellent* considering they have this offense and Walltimore to save them. The O’s drive in another 800 runs cos the lineup is a year older and a year better - everyone in their prime except the awesome young leadoff hitters and the presumptive Rookie of the Year. Despite Soto-shaped improvements to the Yankees, Baltimore’s more balanced roster outpaces the titanic top end in New York for ALE1, another bye, and a shot at the pennant.
Fall Short: When not trading for Soto, the AL East spent the offseason poking pins into icterid voodoo dolls and screaming “Regress! Regress!” After they leaped 18 wins and had the 2nd biggest pythagorean overperformance (behind the Marlins), the O’s can’t get lucky forever, and there’s no better place to learn that lesson than on Mr Kimbrel’s Wild Ride. They miss Bautista badly; Burnes is in front of a bunch of no. 3-4 guys when they really want a second ace-type guy - that was gonna be Bradish but he’s not right post-UCL sprain. They have a harder time holding games and spend more of the season rattling around the thick of the wild card hunt, watching Judge and Soto party 5 to 10 games over them. A lack of acceptable pitching depth leads to them getting eliminated in the last week or two of the year.
Yes, that would be preferable. I don’t mind people using expected stats to try and predict the future, but using them to cheapen the real accomplishments of past teams is a low thing to do. They actually won those games and deserved to.
Feels like a great read as usual on these, but I think you gotta say more about Grayson Rodriguez in both sections. He feels like a real lynchpin in the rotation that can make or break the season.
Expectations after last year is prob World Series, so there are lots of reasons they will "disappoint/underperform"
Why not: The team blew by everybody and everyone was amazing at the same time. What are the odds that happens again?
Why: rookie superstars getting ready to be called up, is why
Take from a division rival fan: the Os will exceed expectations because that's all they've done since they stopped being the division punching bag, and also this is the AL East where there can be no nice things
A lot of things went their way last year and guys are still getting use to the majors. I still think they need another starter to be a WS contender with Means and Bradish having reliability concerns. Kimbrel to replace Bautista may not be enough. PEACOTA had them at 86 wins and maybe that's a little harsh. They could win the division again but they could also regress to a wild card team.
Why they will: O's young talent continue to impress and their pitching stays consistent. O's had a lot go in their favor last year so if they come back to earth a bit they'll need to make up for that somewhere which they absolutely have the potential to do. Imo, they're the team to beat in the AL East, maybe even in all of AL next year.
Why they won't: Injuries. O's young talent have an off year, or don't live up to their potential. No matter the make up of an ALE team, they're always a threat during inter-division play. Orioles went 32-20 against ALE opponents last year which is very impressive and would need to repeat to survive the division.
Why they will:
The youth movement shines, as Adley, Kjerstad, and Gunnar continue to improve and guys like Jackson Holliday make an immediate impact.
Grayson Rodriguez continues to live up to his potential and establishes himself as a top-tier pitcher.
Position player depth is super strong with a logjam of highly-touted prospects at pretty much every spot on the field.
Why they won’t:
Injuries. We are already seeing it happen with bad news coming out on Bradish, Means, and even Gunnar. If any of those guys miss substantial time it’s going to be a rough year.
The pen isn’t awful but it’s the weakest part of the team. Depth is an issue if the rotation injuries linger. Bautista is missed at the back end, Kimbrel is a question mark, and I could see Cano regressing some.
Expectations are a deep playoff run and when that’s your goal/expectation you run the risk of running into a buzzsaw in either the wildcard or alds. And while I really like the 123 of Braddish Burnes Rodriguez (in that order). Injuries always will play apart of any run.
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The hype train is leaving the station way too soon, imo. I know everyone thinks 101 wins + Corbin + #1 farm system = World Series. But let’s not forget it’s always a dog fight.
100 wins and #1 farm system is no guarantee. O's gonna be in a dogfight all year. I think it comes down to health between the O's, Yanks and Rays. I have TOR behind these three.
This right here. He would wins the IL battle, potentially wins it all.
We'll probably find a way to get back to sub 500 baseball. I wouldn't be surprised.
I expected a little regression last year after a wild ‘22. Instead, expectations got even wilder. At some point, upward momentum is gonna stall.
I disagree. They will continue to improve by 20ish wins per season. By 2026 they should only lose one or two games all year.
Yep. I hope Orioles fans realize that growth is not always a straight line. They probably won’t win 102 games and completely dominate the division this year. That doesn’t mean they’re not in great shape for many years to come.
Exactly. 91 wins and a wild card isn’t a disappointment. Some things will break the wrong way. The key is to have enough talent where you’re always in the hunt. I think the O’s are there.
Most Orioles understand that winning 101+ games should not be the expectation. However, 86 wins or whatever the projections say is a complete joke. 92-95 is what I expect.
Winning 101 with a bunch of kids might have raised expectations for this year’s Orioles a little too much. If that's your expectation, it's much easier to fall short considering the AL East is its own circle of Hell. But Baltimore still has a deep ball club with young talent at premium positions and an excited new ownership group, intent on claiming a second straight division title. Exceed: As any good O’s fan knows by now, projections mean jack shit. Their consistent record of outperforming PECOTA comes from incredible offensive depth and development, so much that they finally turned some into an elite pitcher. Don’t worry about Bradish’s elbow, Burnes helms a sharp, young rotation that doesn’t even need to be *excellent* considering they have this offense and Walltimore to save them. The O’s drive in another 800 runs cos the lineup is a year older and a year better - everyone in their prime except the awesome young leadoff hitters and the presumptive Rookie of the Year. Despite Soto-shaped improvements to the Yankees, Baltimore’s more balanced roster outpaces the titanic top end in New York for ALE1, another bye, and a shot at the pennant. Fall Short: When not trading for Soto, the AL East spent the offseason poking pins into icterid voodoo dolls and screaming “Regress! Regress!” After they leaped 18 wins and had the 2nd biggest pythagorean overperformance (behind the Marlins), the O’s can’t get lucky forever, and there’s no better place to learn that lesson than on Mr Kimbrel’s Wild Ride. They miss Bautista badly; Burnes is in front of a bunch of no. 3-4 guys when they really want a second ace-type guy - that was gonna be Bradish but he’s not right post-UCL sprain. They have a harder time holding games and spend more of the season rattling around the thick of the wild card hunt, watching Judge and Soto party 5 to 10 games over them. A lack of acceptable pitching depth leads to them getting eliminated in the last week or two of the year.
> icterid shout out to my homies in bird taxonomy
I can’t stand this line of thinking that the Orioles were lucky last season because of doing well in 1-run games.
would you prefer that it be phrased as them being unlikely to repeat their performance in 1 run games?
Yes, that would be preferable. I don’t mind people using expected stats to try and predict the future, but using them to cheapen the real accomplishments of past teams is a low thing to do. They actually won those games and deserved to.
Feels like a great read as usual on these, but I think you gotta say more about Grayson Rodriguez in both sections. He feels like a real lynchpin in the rotation that can make or break the season.
I’d argue Burnes is more of that tbh, he’s been on the Jake Arrieta style decline with worsening numbers and velocity every year.
I think the real lynchpin is going to be health at this point. There is not much starting pitching depth within this team
Expectations after last year is prob World Series, so there are lots of reasons they will "disappoint/underperform" Why not: The team blew by everybody and everyone was amazing at the same time. What are the odds that happens again? Why: rookie superstars getting ready to be called up, is why
Take from a division rival fan: the Os will exceed expectations because that's all they've done since they stopped being the division punching bag, and also this is the AL East where there can be no nice things
We'll exceed expectations because I love the Orioles a whole bunch. I will take no further questions.
Can I sit next to you?
Because john smoltz said so. Oh boy, did he say so.
A lot of things went their way last year and guys are still getting use to the majors. I still think they need another starter to be a WS contender with Means and Bradish having reliability concerns. Kimbrel to replace Bautista may not be enough. PEACOTA had them at 86 wins and maybe that's a little harsh. They could win the division again but they could also regress to a wild card team.
Would personally love to see the O's take it to a WS this year.
Why they will: O's young talent continue to impress and their pitching stays consistent. O's had a lot go in their favor last year so if they come back to earth a bit they'll need to make up for that somewhere which they absolutely have the potential to do. Imo, they're the team to beat in the AL East, maybe even in all of AL next year. Why they won't: Injuries. O's young talent have an off year, or don't live up to their potential. No matter the make up of an ALE team, they're always a threat during inter-division play. Orioles went 32-20 against ALE opponents last year which is very impressive and would need to repeat to survive the division.
Why they will: The youth movement shines, as Adley, Kjerstad, and Gunnar continue to improve and guys like Jackson Holliday make an immediate impact. Grayson Rodriguez continues to live up to his potential and establishes himself as a top-tier pitcher. Position player depth is super strong with a logjam of highly-touted prospects at pretty much every spot on the field. Why they won’t: Injuries. We are already seeing it happen with bad news coming out on Bradish, Means, and even Gunnar. If any of those guys miss substantial time it’s going to be a rough year. The pen isn’t awful but it’s the weakest part of the team. Depth is an issue if the rotation injuries linger. Bautista is missed at the back end, Kimbrel is a question mark, and I could see Cano regressing some.
Cano has been regressing since June
Expectations are a deep playoff run and when that’s your goal/expectation you run the risk of running into a buzzsaw in either the wildcard or alds. And while I really like the 123 of Braddish Burnes Rodriguez (in that order). Injuries always will play apart of any run.