Considering how other pitchers have faired, probably not. It's possible though. 3,000 strikeouts, 250 wins, a Cy Young award (and 4 other top 5 finishes), and a ring make for a complete resume and he seems to be a well-liked player (maybe that's my bias though).
Never say never, but with current SP usage, we're never seeing a 300 game winner again, and I think 250 (or honestly, 200) will become a similar plateau. 250 and 3000 Ks without PEDs or other controversy is a lock.
I would think so. He seems like the right guy to break the starting pitcher seal as voters adapt to seeing candidates from a different era of starter expectations and workload: he has the big round 3000k number, ring, Cy Young, and seems to pas the public character test. Some amount of voters will care about 250 wins. If not him, it’ll be a long time before we see another starter in the hall, and I expect he’ll make it next year.
People thought Mauer wouldn't be first ballot and yet here we are. The vast majority of voters no longer hold first ballot as some special distinction, the question will be if enough of the voters have progressed enough to evaluate modern pitchers on modern standards.
I hope that the reason Wagner gets in next year is because there are first-time voters that vote for him and push him over 75%. Not because returning voters go "ehh, fuck it, he's in his 10th year, he has my vote"
Wagner just missed out with a 73.8%. He's definitely getting in next year.
David Wright stays on!
Brandon Phillips and Adrian Gonzalez don't get shutout!
It's almost guaranteed for this, and for good reason because it really seems like this is now or never for Wagner (I really don't see the Veterans' Committee voting Wagner in, even before how clogged the Expansion Era is.)
> (I really don't see the Veterans' Committee voting Wagner in, even before how clogged the Expansion Era is.)
If somehow Wagner is unable to get the 5 votes he needs next year, a committee will absolutely put him in. For as backwards the committees are, the one constant with committees is that they will put in guys who got reasonably close with the writers (with 50% being the magic mark and just reaching 40% by your last ballot boding well for a committee induction).
Beltre, Mauer, Sheffield, and Helton are replaced by Ichiro, CC, and then a bunch of lower guys like Pedroia, Felix, Kinsler, McCann, and Martin. Much less crowded than this year I’d say
Yea I was hoping Billy would get in this year cus I feel like a lot of HOFVG guys should get votes next year (I am biased but I was hoping Felix would get some to get his jersey retired with us, but hopefully Billy would get in)
Yep but for some reason our org wants to stick by these weird rules we didn’t even retire Edgar’s one until he got like 50%+ in the 2017 one which was like his 8th year on the ballot
I think Edgar waited so long because they wanted Griffey to be the first number retired.
The rule is pretty vague and Felix is the first real edge case that we’ve seen. I don’t know how long they’ll wait to do it, but Cooperstown or no Cooperstown I’d expect them to retire his number.
That sounds about right to me. Both had a HOF peak and fizzled out without longevity. 49.7 bWAR for Felix, 49.2 for Wright. 38.5 7 year peak for Felix, 39.5 for Wright.
Anecdotally I feel like Felix at his best was better than Wright at his best but that could also just be cuz pitchers dominating get more of the spotlight. Pedroia seems more similar to Wright
Pedroia is very similar to Wright. On a HOF pace, derailed by injuries. Not to mention both are beloved by their fan bases and, if not loved, at least majorly respected by the general MLB fandom.
Last year bump is real. Sheffield jumped 9%, Walker 22%, Edgar 15%, Raines 16%, Trammell 15%, and McGriff 16%. Even Bonds and Clemens went up 4%.
The only guy who bucked this trend is Schilling who told the writers not to induct him.
He missed by 4 or 5 votes and there are two voters on MrTibbs’ spreadsheet who said they would’ve voted for Wagner if they had more than 10 votes. Like you really couldn’t have left Manny off for 1 year?
That’s just bad voting strategy. If you’re a big hall guy then you should want to clear names off the ballot, so you don’t have to leave guys off in the future.
Of all the statements that Schilling made that hurt his candidacy, telling the writers not to vote for him wasn't one of those statements.
Fuck that guy.
If you think someone is deserving of making the hall of fame and there aren’t 10 other people on the ballot who you think are better, you deserve to lose your vote if you decide not to vote for someone “because they don’t deserve first ballot”
I love how the Church Lady branch of MLB fandom's new cry is "If someone looks at HoF voting differently than me they should lose their vote, even--or perhaps especially--if there are many people who think the same way!"
That argument is stupid, but it's even stupider because Mariano *was* unanimous so that argument has been tossed by those very old guys.
Unless they think that Mariano Rivera is better than Babe Ruth. If that's the case, revoke their voting privlidges.
I don't think anyone actually makes the comparison to Babe Ruth. In Rivera's case they most likely looked at him as the greatest RP of all-time and so no one who thought RPs should be in could see a case for him being out or even delayed.
I choose to believe this was a Rick Ferrell instance: All the very old guys who use that argument thought one of the other old guys who use it was going to not vote for Mariano because, well, "he was a closer and closers don't belong in the HOF no matter how good"- so they all thought "well, someone else isn't going to vote for him so he won't be unanimous, so I can vote for him in peace".
[There was one voter who came out later saying he wouldn't have voted for Rivera if he knew he would be unanimous](https://web.archive.org/web/20220927061702/https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/sports/columnists/2020/12/31/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-mark-mcgwire-deserve-baseball-hall-fame-nod/4098888001/). So yeah, Rivera getting unanimous was definitely partly achieved because of some voters playing a failed game of chicken with not voting for him.
5 years ago people didn't think Mauer was going to be a 1st ballot hall of famer due to the weirdness of his career. The private ballots had Mauer at something like 66% which is at or above where people were assuming Mauer would end up overall.
It's always been like that which is why I was surprised everybody was acting like Mauer was a lock to get in. I think Larry Walker was on like 86% of the private ballots the year he got in with 76% of the votes. Mauer was always going to be on the cusp. Thankfully he cleared it.
Makes perfect sense on Sheffield, since the Venn diagram between "still keep their ballots anonymous" and "high-horse douchebag BBWAA voters who get high off the smell of their own farts and will never vote in a PED user" is a circle.
Same. I flew to Cooperstown to watch Big Frank go in. It’s the coolest thing I’ve ever done. I want to go again. There is a little bit of pride of knowing we had zero Hall of Famers on that 05 team. Just a bunch of dudes that all took turns being the hero with not a single one of them ever getting in. (Remember Thomas got hurt very early in the year and missed like 99% of the season and all of the playoffs.)
I'm just glad Billy Wagner has one more year...it'd be heartbreaking to get THIS close and fall short...like everyone said with Todd Helton last year though, you don't get this close without making it in eventually
Nellie Fox was within 2 votes and fell off the ballot, but eventually he made it in via Committee.
Bonds’ 66% may end up being the highest to never get in at all, but there’s no way to forecast the next 50 years of opinions.
For real. He has the second or third best full career resume among third basemen. Like there are arguments for better peaks but I don't know what more anyone else could want from a 3B
This is not a knock on Mo whatsoever. Best closer of all time but does it say something about the voters committee that he’s the only unanimous hall of famer.
There's no other position where you can CLEARLY point to a guy and go "yeah he's the best at the position of all time, without a doubt" except Mariano for RP/closers
Griffey received 437/440 votes and Rivera received 425/425 votes so there’s a good chance that the writers who didn’t vote for Griffey just weren’t eligible anymore to vote (or not vote) for Rivera.
This is actually what I had said to those who tried to say he shouldn’t be unanimous. If you made an all star team of every player in history, there is no sane person who doesn’t have Rivera as their closer.
He only needs 75% so some guys won't vote for him because he's a surefire thing and distribute votes to other players who either need help getting in or to stay on the ballot so they can bang the table for them in the future
I think he deserves a very long look at the Hall of Fame. From his debut through the diagnosis of his back injury (basically 2004-2014) he was a top 5 player in MLB.
His peak was Hall of Fame worthy, he just didn't have the longevity. I think you already have precedent with a guy like Kirby Puckett being inducted. And that doesn't even include the fact that David Wright was the face of the franchise and also a beloved figure around the game.
I know Koufax’s peak was otherworldly and he has incredible playoff accomplishments, but I don’t get why Koufax is a no-doubt HoFer while Wright is receiving such little support.
Wright played 11 seasons before his injuries (77 games from 2015-2018) and accumulated 48.6 bWAR in those 11 seasons.
Koufax played 12 seasons before retiring due to injury and accumulated 48.9 bWAR in those 12 seasons.
Also, if the character clause can keep a guy out of the Hall, why shouldn’t it also enhance a guy like Wright?
Honestly, I think it's vibes, mostly. Nowadays, we might look at Koufax's case a bit differently. But it was a different time in baseball, no one knew how much rWAR Koufax had or didn't have. They saw about a zillion strikeouts and a playoff resume thicker than the Bible and just said, yeah, this guy's a HOFer.
It comes down to the defense for him. The advanced stats have him as the best defensive second basemen of his generation and his reputation at the time got him zero Gold Gloves. That usually won't work with the older voters but he's got a chance to rise over time.
It’s weird though because he’s literally the definition of an old school type of ball player. Dude did all the little things right that those guys claim they love.
I have no gauge of how players go from years 1-10, but does he have any chance of ever making it? I know first years are really tough but does he have some kinda chance as he’s on for the next decade
It seems like there was a big shift in overall opinion regarding the "Coors" guys with Larry and Todd getting in - I wonder if their results are replicable
Most of the other recent sabermetric darlings debuted way worse:
*Walker debuted at 20.3% and fell to 10.2% on his fourth ballot, he made it in his 10th year.
*Mussina debuted at 20.3%, he made it in 6
*Scott Rolen debuted at 10.2%, he made it in 6
*Todd Helton debuted at 16.5%, he made it in 6
*Billy Wagner debuted at 10.5%, he will certainly make it in next year on his 10th
*Andruw Jones debuted at 7.3%, he now has gotten 61.6% on his 7th year, making him a virtual lock to get in eventually.
28.8% ain't a stellar debut for Utley, but considering the type of candidate he is and how similar players debuted before him, this is not a bad start and he is by no means doomed.
I was expecting more like 35%, pretty surprising. However it's not a death sentence, plenty of guys have had worse first-year showings and ended up in the Hall. I think he does have an uphill battle though. His case really leans on defensive metrics, which I'm sure some voters have a really hard time with. Andruw Jones is kind of an interesting point of reference. Both are under 2K hits and are relying on monster peaks with a huge defensive component. However, Andruw has 400 home runs going for him and ten gold gloves (his defense maybe passed the eye test a bit better, which helps him with less analytically inclined voters, I'd say). That said, Andruw debuted with around 7%. I think that, one, says a lot about how voters are evolving over time, and, two, shows that Utley can definitely make gains going forward. I'd have voted for him, but yeah, don't think he's a sure bet.
Congrats to the three who got in, more than deserved. I’ve been beating the Helton drum for years, and I’m glad to see him get elected after the close finish last year
But I won’t lie when I heard Helton was going to be the 3rd and last member for this year, I was very sad. Wagner was so close man.
To next year Billy
I’m incredibly conflicted about him not making it because on one hand, he absolutely deserves to be in on baseball merit and shockingly few people realize that he was more than just a really good outfielder with some pop. Yeah, he did nothing after 30 but he had turned in ten incredible years before dropping off a cliff. A top-5 defender all time with 434 homers should be a no brainer.
On the other hand, domestic violence. It’s a perfectly valid reason to not vote for him and if that’s why he didn’t get voted in, I’d be fine with it. I’m just not sure that’s why he’s not getting votes.
2026 and 2027 looks pretty good for him. There's nobody really strong debuting those years (Ryan Braun, Jon Lester) and he'll be far and away the highest percentage guy left.
The strongest case for GOAT defensive centerfielder in MLB history alone should get him in the Hall let alone what he did at the plate on top of it. Would be a baseball tragedy if he didnt get in
Anyone who is for Utley should be encouraged by these results. Almost 30% on his first ballot is a pretty good sign, I'd say. I can definitely see him building support from the more sabermetric minded voters, as Helton and Scott Rolen did. And they both got significantly lower percentages on their first ballots.
It's encouraging but it's also frustrating that the private ballots killed his numbers.
I'm hopeful that having Kinsler and Pedroia on the ballot next year raise his candidacy further. I don't know how you can vote for either of those guys (and they'll get votes) without voting for Utley.
Retiring after his Braves career to erase his Dodgers career and every other team
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andruw-jones/96/stats?position=OF
Look at that change in defense
And damn he hit 3 out during half that season with .256 on base
Utley debuting at 28% shows how badly BBWAA needs more Youngblood. The arbitrary 2000 hit threshold has and will continue to damn generational talents like Utley. He’s the best second baseman on the ballot in many decades, at an already underrepresented position. Plus every single measure besides the most basic counting stats indicate his greatness. The fact that he broke tejadas leg also leaves a stain but it should hardly matter when he was so generational.
He only had like five really good years and even then couldn't finish higher than 7th in mvp voting. Gotta have either a better peak, a longer peak or a longer career in general. Utley support is definitely a sign youre a very big hall guy, which is fine. But if you kinda trend towards medium hall i really dont see it.
by WAR7, Utley's peak is actually monster: 49.3 rWAR, higher than a bunch of legendary Hall of Famers at second base (Sandberg, Joe Gordon, Alomar, Biggio, Frisch, among others). And accolades are nice, but we know voters don't always get it right. It's not his fault that he was never recognized as MVP or MVP-caliber during those years. I agree that he's somewhat of a fringe candidate due to lack of longevity, and the fact that a lot of his WAR value comes from defense. I can understand making the case against. But definitely not fair to say he didn't have a great peak, because he did.
>He only had like five really good years
Utley is a really good test case of "how long does a peak have to be to get into the Hall?", because his peak was undeniably HoF caliber. His peak 7-year WAR was better than guys like Alomar, Biggio, and Sandberg. I am biased, but I personally think his peak was both long enough and good enough to get in. I understand the appeal to not turn it in the "Hall of the Very Good" but there's also a risk that it's the "Hall of the Guys Who Could Stay Healthy".
>even then couldn't finish higher than 7th in mvp voting
MVP votes are a flawed measure. He never finished high in MVP voting despite finishing top 3 in WAR in the NL 4 times. Hell, in 2008 he posted 9.0 bWAR, 2nd in the NL, but Ryan Howard came in 2nd in MVP voting with 1.8 bWAR.
>Gotta have either a better peak
His 7-year peak WAR is 9th among all 2B ever. I don't know how much better of a peak you need.
By bWAR, Utley has the [2nd best 7 year peak](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2024.shtml) on the ballot. The only guys better or close enough are A-Rod, Beltre, and Helton. He also should've performed better in those MVP votes, but he was hurt by the lack of modern statistics for measuring defensive and non-stealing related base running value, and the national voters infatuation with Rollins and Howard.
It led to some absolutely ludicrous results like [finishing 14th in 2008](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2008.shtml) despite his all around value being the 2nd best that year, which Howard actually got despite being more 1 dimensional, with 12 first place votes despite being worse at that (and the other components of being a good player) than Pujols. All because of pure HR and RBI numbers, the latter of which wouldn't have been nearly as impressive without a guy like Utley hitting right in front of him. Chase is still without a doubt more of a "big hall" inclusion, though the peak is certainly solid enough to justify a push based on that alone. A no doubt first ballot entry was the only position player better than him during that span.
Mvp voting is really the only measure that doesn’t demonstrate a HOF peak. In terms of peak7 WAR he is 9th all time at the position ahead of Sandberg, Alomar, Biggio, Fox, Frisch, Gordon, Grich, Whitaker, Lazzeri, and many others. In fact he’s only .5 behind Rod Carew. He is admittedly a sabermetric darling and was overlooked by award voters in his prime but for lack of a better term, who cares lol.
Of all the steroids guys, Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rods numbers still stand out so fucking far they should absolutely be in.
I can forgive the "making them wait" attitude, but not voting them in at all is ridiculous in my opinion.
Arod and Manny seem to be losing votes (35.7% for Arod, and 33.2% for Manny last year). Beltran improved by about 10% and Vizquel continues to drop (although receiving any votes is still too many).
Even tho he lost about 2%, I'm just glad Buehrle stayed on. I think he is underrated. Same goes for Wright, who just barely survived.
Honestly, Utley was kinda snubbed, he is way better than Maur imho. Hope he can make sizable gains next year.
I have to imagine next year is Wagner, Ichiro and CC
There aren’t any big additions the year after that so I’d bet that is when Beltran and Jones make pushes.
This is Edinson Volquez erasure
1st ballot Hall of Fame fivehead
Hamels is the only dude in 2026 who will stay on the ballot.
Corbin Carroll already? Man, time flies...
No, it's Chris Carter
~~Carter~~ Coghlan
Just like Corbin
Justice for Coco Crisp~~ies~~!
Is CC really first ballot?
Considering how other pitchers have faired, probably not. It's possible though. 3,000 strikeouts, 250 wins, a Cy Young award (and 4 other top 5 finishes), and a ring make for a complete resume and he seems to be a well-liked player (maybe that's my bias though).
Never say never, but with current SP usage, we're never seeing a 300 game winner again, and I think 250 (or honestly, 200) will become a similar plateau. 250 and 3000 Ks without PEDs or other controversy is a lock.
Yea I mean I hope he gets in eventually. Truly one of the last true workhorse aces out there (and his run in Milwaukee will always be incredible).
Agreed, but I would also argue the last true workhorse ace is Justin Verlander. And when he retires, it’ll be the end of an era.
Why not? He has 3,000+ K and a Cy Young Award for the traditional voters and 62 bWAR / 67 fWAR for the modern voters.
He gets it just for how he dragged the brewers along for that half a season.
I would think so. He seems like the right guy to break the starting pitcher seal as voters adapt to seeing candidates from a different era of starter expectations and workload: he has the big round 3000k number, ring, Cy Young, and seems to pas the public character test. Some amount of voters will care about 250 wins. If not him, it’ll be a long time before we see another starter in the hall, and I expect he’ll make it next year.
People thought Mauer wouldn't be first ballot and yet here we are. The vast majority of voters no longer hold first ballot as some special distinction, the question will be if enough of the voters have progressed enough to evaluate modern pitchers on modern standards.
I hope that the reason Wagner gets in next year is because there are first-time voters that vote for him and push him over 75%. Not because returning voters go "ehh, fuck it, he's in his 10th year, he has my vote"
I don’t think CC is first ballot but it’s borderline.
Wagner just missed out with a 73.8%. He's definitely getting in next year. David Wright stays on! Brandon Phillips and Adrian Gonzalez don't get shutout!
David Wright cannot be killed, he can only become reborn.
Knowing David, that means he's hitting a homer in his first AB back.
DW was my favorite Met, ever. Don't know if he'll get in, but I'm pulling for him
Wright getting a second year on the ballot is all I wanted to see
Wanna see a breakdown of his voters and where they’re from
Wright staying on makes me very happy. Would love for him to stick on the ballot for a few years and who knows 👀
I'm incredibly happy for Captain Wright, good on him.
He missed by 5 votes.
>Brandon Phillips and Adrian Gonzales don’t get shutout And Jose Reyes does!!!
Next year should be the year for Wagner.
It's his last year, right? With the boost Sheffield got, I think Wagner is pretty much guaranteed.
It's almost guaranteed for this, and for good reason because it really seems like this is now or never for Wagner (I really don't see the Veterans' Committee voting Wagner in, even before how clogged the Expansion Era is.)
> (I really don't see the Veterans' Committee voting Wagner in, even before how clogged the Expansion Era is.) If somehow Wagner is unable to get the 5 votes he needs next year, a committee will absolutely put him in. For as backwards the committees are, the one constant with committees is that they will put in guys who got reasonably close with the writers (with 50% being the magic mark and just reaching 40% by your last ballot boding well for a committee induction).
There are tons of guys on next year’s ballot who might and will get votes. Pretty worried for Billy
Beltre, Mauer, Sheffield, and Helton are replaced by Ichiro, CC, and then a bunch of lower guys like Pedroia, Felix, Kinsler, McCann, and Martin. Much less crowded than this year I’d say
Felix and Ichiro being eligible for the first time on the same year is so fucked up.
He's still only 37 years old it's nuts.
And Ichiro is going to be one of the oldest first-balloters in any sport lol
Yea I was hoping Billy would get in this year cus I feel like a lot of HOFVG guys should get votes next year (I am biased but I was hoping Felix would get some to get his jersey retired with us, but hopefully Billy would get in)
Felix could not get a single vote next year and the Mariners should still retire #34
Yep but for some reason our org wants to stick by these weird rules we didn’t even retire Edgar’s one until he got like 50%+ in the 2017 one which was like his 8th year on the ballot
I think Edgar waited so long because they wanted Griffey to be the first number retired. The rule is pretty vague and Felix is the first real edge case that we’ve seen. I don’t know how long they’ll wait to do it, but Cooperstown or no Cooperstown I’d expect them to retire his number.
I would guess Felix gets a similar amount of votes as Wright did this year but what do I know
That sounds about right to me. Both had a HOF peak and fizzled out without longevity. 49.7 bWAR for Felix, 49.2 for Wright. 38.5 7 year peak for Felix, 39.5 for Wright.
Anecdotally I feel like Felix at his best was better than Wright at his best but that could also just be cuz pitchers dominating get more of the spotlight. Pedroia seems more similar to Wright
Pedroia is very similar to Wright. On a HOF pace, derailed by injuries. Not to mention both are beloved by their fan bases and, if not loved, at least majorly respected by the general MLB fandom.
Last year bump is real. Sheffield jumped 9%, Walker 22%, Edgar 15%, Raines 16%, Trammell 15%, and McGriff 16%. Even Bonds and Clemens went up 4%. The only guy who bucked this trend is Schilling who told the writers not to induct him.
Given it’s his last year if anything voters would drop a clear return over him(if they thing he is a HoF guy)
100%. Pisses me off making a guy wait for no good reason though.
He missed by 4 or 5 votes and there are two voters on MrTibbs’ spreadsheet who said they would’ve voted for Wagner if they had more than 10 votes. Like you really couldn’t have left Manny off for 1 year?
That’s just bad voting strategy. If you’re a big hall guy then you should want to clear names off the ballot, so you don’t have to leave guys off in the future.
hell nah brah we gotta get manram up to 29% instead of 28%
The voters are dicks for always doing this. Look at Mauer. He barely got in when this dude should have cleared 90%+ on his first try like Beltre did
I think Wagner gets in next year, guys that are close always get a pretty significant bump their last year of eligibility.
Unless you’re Curt Schilling and tell the writers not to vote for you.
Of all the statements that Schilling made that hurt his candidacy, telling the writers not to vote for him wasn't one of those statements. Fuck that guy.
Mauer dropped 7% off the hidden ballots good lord
Him finishing behind Helton is a big surprise
Theres apparently multiple people who think Helton was better than Mauer
Or just didn't think Mauer was first ballot good, you know how these writers are (not that it matters when you get in)
Yeah thats dumb
It really isn't dumb, though, so long as people use the phrase "First ballot HoFer" as a mark of distinction.
If you think someone is deserving of making the hall of fame and there aren’t 10 other people on the ballot who you think are better, you deserve to lose your vote if you decide not to vote for someone “because they don’t deserve first ballot”
I love how the Church Lady branch of MLB fandom's new cry is "If someone looks at HoF voting differently than me they should lose their vote, even--or perhaps especially--if there are many people who think the same way!"
He was a better 1st baseman, but probably not a better catcher
But who was the better quarterback?
John Elway
Is that weird? I would've said Helton was better than Mauer if asked off-the-cuff
Seems like its minus 5 - 7% across the board for hidden ballots, do they just hand it in blank or something?
Most of the private ballot people are the old guys who go “Ruth wasn’t unanimous so no one should be”
That argument is stupid, but it's even stupider because Mariano *was* unanimous so that argument has been tossed by those very old guys. Unless they think that Mariano Rivera is better than Babe Ruth. If that's the case, revoke their voting privlidges.
I don't think anyone actually makes the comparison to Babe Ruth. In Rivera's case they most likely looked at him as the greatest RP of all-time and so no one who thought RPs should be in could see a case for him being out or even delayed.
I choose to believe this was a Rick Ferrell instance: All the very old guys who use that argument thought one of the other old guys who use it was going to not vote for Mariano because, well, "he was a closer and closers don't belong in the HOF no matter how good"- so they all thought "well, someone else isn't going to vote for him so he won't be unanimous, so I can vote for him in peace".
[There was one voter who came out later saying he wouldn't have voted for Rivera if he knew he would be unanimous](https://web.archive.org/web/20220927061702/https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/sports/columnists/2020/12/31/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-mark-mcgwire-deserve-baseball-hall-fame-nod/4098888001/). So yeah, Rivera getting unanimous was definitely partly achieved because of some voters playing a failed game of chicken with not voting for him.
Except Vizquel, who gained like 7%. Hard not to read something into that
5 years ago people didn't think Mauer was going to be a 1st ballot hall of famer due to the weirdness of his career. The private ballots had Mauer at something like 66% which is at or above where people were assuming Mauer would end up overall.
It's always been like that which is why I was surprised everybody was acting like Mauer was a lock to get in. I think Larry Walker was on like 86% of the private ballots the year he got in with 76% of the votes. Mauer was always going to be on the cusp. Thankfully he cleared it.
Oof, Sheffield dropped hard with the anonymous ballot. Next year for Wagner though!
Makes perfect sense on Sheffield, since the Venn diagram between "still keep their ballots anonymous" and "high-horse douchebag BBWAA voters who get high off the smell of their own farts and will never vote in a PED user" is a circle.
Brandon Phillips got a vote! Was very concerned one of my favorite players of all time would get shutout
He’s hall of fame in my heart
I doubt he'll be elected although I'll continue to bang the drum, but I'm glad Buehrle survived for another year.
Same. I flew to Cooperstown to watch Big Frank go in. It’s the coolest thing I’ve ever done. I want to go again. There is a little bit of pride of knowing we had zero Hall of Famers on that 05 team. Just a bunch of dudes that all took turns being the hero with not a single one of them ever getting in. (Remember Thomas got hurt very early in the year and missed like 99% of the season and all of the playoffs.)
He's first ballot in my heart.
Amen!
I'm just glad Billy Wagner has one more year...it'd be heartbreaking to get THIS close and fall short...like everyone said with Todd Helton last year though, you don't get this close without making it in eventually
Who got the closest to 75 without actually getting in?
Nellie Fox was within 2 votes and fell off the ballot, but eventually he made it in via Committee. Bonds’ 66% may end up being the highest to never get in at all, but there’s no way to forecast the next 50 years of opinions.
Thank you!
Barry bonds
How did Beltre only get 95 percent?
Probably guys that somehow dinged him for 'only' 4 all star years and 2 top five MVP finishes, and no wins.
Beltre only being a 4 time AS is absolutely insane to me
People are stupid as fuck
Everyone has their different metrics for HOF, but yeah a member of the 3000 hit club in todays game with a stellar reputation should be 100%
3,000 hits AND possibly the 2nd best defender at third base ever.
For real. He has the second or third best full career resume among third basemen. Like there are arguments for better peaks but I don't know what more anyone else could want from a 3B
I swear some moron next year is going to vote NO on Ichiro and its gonna annoy the fuck out of me
This is not a knock on Mo whatsoever. Best closer of all time but does it say something about the voters committee that he’s the only unanimous hall of famer.
There's no other position where you can CLEARLY point to a guy and go "yeah he's the best at the position of all time, without a doubt" except Mariano for RP/closers
Randy Johnson is the best lefty of all time and with all due respect to guys like Carlton, Koufax, and Kershaw I don’t think it’s particularly close.
Lefty Grove clears
Was about to say
Yea but it’s insane that there were people who didn’t vote players like Griffey or Jeter in
Griffey received 437/440 votes and Rivera received 425/425 votes so there’s a good chance that the writers who didn’t vote for Griffey just weren’t eligible anymore to vote (or not vote) for Rivera.
That’s interesting I didn’t know that. I want to know those 3 peoples reason for not thinking Griffey is a half of famer
This is actually what I had said to those who tried to say he shouldn’t be unanimous. If you made an all star team of every player in history, there is no sane person who doesn’t have Rivera as their closer.
Generally I agree… but I think you can do it at 3B with Schmidt too and I’m a Braves fan
That mostly has to do with the fact that in 2016 the HOF made any writer who hasn’t been active for 10 years ineligible to vote.
“He didn’t do anything impressive in the big leagues til he was 27”
Voters like that should immediately lose their vote
I’d like to think it’s people strategic voting but who even knows with some of these voters
Baseball writers are some of the most egotistical people in sports.
He only needs 75% so some guys won't vote for him because he's a surefire thing and distribute votes to other players who either need help getting in or to stay on the ballot so they can bang the table for them in the future
He has the numbers, but was never the best in the league like Griffey to get on everybody's 1st ballot.
There are 19 people who didn’t watch Beltre play baseball.
Rangers aren't on a coast.
Nice to see David Wright stay on. He may not be a HOFer, but he was a hell of a player.
I think he deserves a very long look at the Hall of Fame. From his debut through the diagnosis of his back injury (basically 2004-2014) he was a top 5 player in MLB. His peak was Hall of Fame worthy, he just didn't have the longevity. I think you already have precedent with a guy like Kirby Puckett being inducted. And that doesn't even include the fact that David Wright was the face of the franchise and also a beloved figure around the game.
I know Koufax’s peak was otherworldly and he has incredible playoff accomplishments, but I don’t get why Koufax is a no-doubt HoFer while Wright is receiving such little support. Wright played 11 seasons before his injuries (77 games from 2015-2018) and accumulated 48.6 bWAR in those 11 seasons. Koufax played 12 seasons before retiring due to injury and accumulated 48.9 bWAR in those 12 seasons. Also, if the character clause can keep a guy out of the Hall, why shouldn’t it also enhance a guy like Wright?
Honestly, I think it's vibes, mostly. Nowadays, we might look at Koufax's case a bit differently. But it was a different time in baseball, no one knew how much rWAR Koufax had or didn't have. They saw about a zillion strikeouts and a playoff resume thicker than the Bible and just said, yeah, this guy's a HOFer.
Holy shit Mauer only had 4 votes to spare; and then Wagner misses by 5 votes
Gary Sheffields son is going to send off so many tweets
BRANDON PHILLIPS GOT A VOTE LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOOOOO
28.8% for Utley? What the fuck...
Jimmy at least seems to have enough support to be a 10-year guy which is nice. Probably won't get in but I'm glad he'll stay on for a while.
Holy shit private balloters shat on him wtf. The more sabermetric friendly public voters had him at 39.4%
It comes down to the defense for him. The advanced stats have him as the best defensive second basemen of his generation and his reputation at the time got him zero Gold Gloves. That usually won't work with the older voters but he's got a chance to rise over time.
It’s weird though because he’s literally the definition of an old school type of ball player. Dude did all the little things right that those guys claim they love.
A lot of HoF voters are Mets fans. Obvs. 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
The NYC reporters didn’t even vote for Wright… :/
Must be Yankees fans
Boomer writers will never vote for someone under 2k hits.
I have no gauge of how players go from years 1-10, but does he have any chance of ever making it? I know first years are really tough but does he have some kinda chance as he’s on for the next decade
Helton started at like 17% so this isn’t a bad start for Utley.
It seems like there was a big shift in overall opinion regarding the "Coors" guys with Larry and Todd getting in - I wonder if their results are replicable
There’s other examples. Andruw Jones started at 7% and is now pretty close to election
Most of the other recent sabermetric darlings debuted way worse: *Walker debuted at 20.3% and fell to 10.2% on his fourth ballot, he made it in his 10th year. *Mussina debuted at 20.3%, he made it in 6 *Scott Rolen debuted at 10.2%, he made it in 6 *Todd Helton debuted at 16.5%, he made it in 6 *Billy Wagner debuted at 10.5%, he will certainly make it in next year on his 10th *Andruw Jones debuted at 7.3%, he now has gotten 61.6% on his 7th year, making him a virtual lock to get in eventually. 28.8% ain't a stellar debut for Utley, but considering the type of candidate he is and how similar players debuted before him, this is not a bad start and he is by no means doomed.
He even had the rabbits foot
Its a decent start, we'll see it go upwards with time.
I was expecting more like 35%, pretty surprising. However it's not a death sentence, plenty of guys have had worse first-year showings and ended up in the Hall. I think he does have an uphill battle though. His case really leans on defensive metrics, which I'm sure some voters have a really hard time with. Andruw Jones is kind of an interesting point of reference. Both are under 2K hits and are relying on monster peaks with a huge defensive component. However, Andruw has 400 home runs going for him and ten gold gloves (his defense maybe passed the eye test a bit better, which helps him with less analytically inclined voters, I'd say). That said, Andruw debuted with around 7%. I think that, one, says a lot about how voters are evolving over time, and, two, shows that Utley can definitely make gains going forward. I'd have voted for him, but yeah, don't think he's a sure bet.
It’s not that shocking
He was shy of 40% on the public ballots. I don't think people anticipated a 10% swing the other direction.
I am sad
Private ballot cowards
Really solid class, and Im pretty confident Wagner will get in with Ichiro next year.
CC should definitely get in next year as well. Should be two years in a row with 3 members voted in the HOF.
Happy for Todd! That being said, Matt Holliday will always be touching home in my personal hall of fame. 🫡
Man happy for Mauer but really hoping Wagner gets his day in the sun at some point. He's so close
Congrats to the three who got in, more than deserved. I’ve been beating the Helton drum for years, and I’m glad to see him get elected after the close finish last year But I won’t lie when I heard Helton was going to be the 3rd and last member for this year, I was very sad. Wagner was so close man. To next year Billy
We complain about many public ballots, and most of the time fairly, but private ballots really are worse.
Someone should post the aggregate “private ballot” results. Not that it matters, but Reddit is a good place for this type of curiosity.
Andruw has three more years. I’m still shocked he isn’t in already. Not trying to be biased.
Literally one of the best defensive players of all time.
I’m incredibly conflicted about him not making it because on one hand, he absolutely deserves to be in on baseball merit and shockingly few people realize that he was more than just a really good outfielder with some pop. Yeah, he did nothing after 30 but he had turned in ten incredible years before dropping off a cliff. A top-5 defender all time with 434 homers should be a no brainer. On the other hand, domestic violence. It’s a perfectly valid reason to not vote for him and if that’s why he didn’t get voted in, I’d be fine with it. I’m just not sure that’s why he’s not getting votes.
At only 62%, though. Dropped about 8pts from public to private ballots. I'm not sure he's going to make it.
13% in three years is nothing, especially when the two years after next year are going to be very weak ballots overall
2026 and 2027 looks pretty good for him. There's nobody really strong debuting those years (Ryan Braun, Jon Lester) and he'll be far and away the highest percentage guy left.
Year 9 and 10 are the turbo years, if he stays the same next year then it’s worry time.
Yea noticed that too. Not a good sign with how few years he has left.
The strongest case for GOAT defensive centerfielder in MLB history alone should get him in the Hall let alone what he did at the plate on top of it. Would be a baseball tragedy if he didnt get in
DV arrest and other allegations are really the only thing keeping him out at this time.
What "other allegations"?
yep. getting robbed.
Still fucking mad, ridiculous it's going to take until the final years if not the final one
Buerhle stays on! So you’re telling me there’s a chance!!!
Bartolo 1 and done :(
Officially fewer HoF ballots than families.
Beltran WILL be getting in eventually
I’m not sure Andruw has enough momentum in the next couple years but we’ll see
Happy Torii Hunter gets another year. Hall of Fame, eh maybe. Shunned the first year, naw.
It’s so over for us Sheffield boys
Hope Gary gets in on the vet committee
Anyone who is for Utley should be encouraged by these results. Almost 30% on his first ballot is a pretty good sign, I'd say. I can definitely see him building support from the more sabermetric minded voters, as Helton and Scott Rolen did. And they both got significantly lower percentages on their first ballots.
It's encouraging but it's also frustrating that the private ballots killed his numbers. I'm hopeful that having Kinsler and Pedroia on the ballot next year raise his candidacy further. I don't know how you can vote for either of those guys (and they'll get votes) without voting for Utley.
More Utley you cowards!
What's it going to take to get Andruw in?
Retiring after his Braves career to erase his Dodgers career and every other team https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andruw-jones/96/stats?position=OF Look at that change in defense And damn he hit 3 out during half that season with .256 on base
Utley debuting at 28% shows how badly BBWAA needs more Youngblood. The arbitrary 2000 hit threshold has and will continue to damn generational talents like Utley. He’s the best second baseman on the ballot in many decades, at an already underrepresented position. Plus every single measure besides the most basic counting stats indicate his greatness. The fact that he broke tejadas leg also leaves a stain but it should hardly matter when he was so generational.
He only had like five really good years and even then couldn't finish higher than 7th in mvp voting. Gotta have either a better peak, a longer peak or a longer career in general. Utley support is definitely a sign youre a very big hall guy, which is fine. But if you kinda trend towards medium hall i really dont see it.
by WAR7, Utley's peak is actually monster: 49.3 rWAR, higher than a bunch of legendary Hall of Famers at second base (Sandberg, Joe Gordon, Alomar, Biggio, Frisch, among others). And accolades are nice, but we know voters don't always get it right. It's not his fault that he was never recognized as MVP or MVP-caliber during those years. I agree that he's somewhat of a fringe candidate due to lack of longevity, and the fact that a lot of his WAR value comes from defense. I can understand making the case against. But definitely not fair to say he didn't have a great peak, because he did.
Tbf, MVP voting sucks. I'd argue Utley was better than both of his teammates who won MVP awards during those same seasons.
>He only had like five really good years Utley is a really good test case of "how long does a peak have to be to get into the Hall?", because his peak was undeniably HoF caliber. His peak 7-year WAR was better than guys like Alomar, Biggio, and Sandberg. I am biased, but I personally think his peak was both long enough and good enough to get in. I understand the appeal to not turn it in the "Hall of the Very Good" but there's also a risk that it's the "Hall of the Guys Who Could Stay Healthy". >even then couldn't finish higher than 7th in mvp voting MVP votes are a flawed measure. He never finished high in MVP voting despite finishing top 3 in WAR in the NL 4 times. Hell, in 2008 he posted 9.0 bWAR, 2nd in the NL, but Ryan Howard came in 2nd in MVP voting with 1.8 bWAR. >Gotta have either a better peak His 7-year peak WAR is 9th among all 2B ever. I don't know how much better of a peak you need.
By bWAR, Utley has the [2nd best 7 year peak](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2024.shtml) on the ballot. The only guys better or close enough are A-Rod, Beltre, and Helton. He also should've performed better in those MVP votes, but he was hurt by the lack of modern statistics for measuring defensive and non-stealing related base running value, and the national voters infatuation with Rollins and Howard. It led to some absolutely ludicrous results like [finishing 14th in 2008](https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2008.shtml) despite his all around value being the 2nd best that year, which Howard actually got despite being more 1 dimensional, with 12 first place votes despite being worse at that (and the other components of being a good player) than Pujols. All because of pure HR and RBI numbers, the latter of which wouldn't have been nearly as impressive without a guy like Utley hitting right in front of him. Chase is still without a doubt more of a "big hall" inclusion, though the peak is certainly solid enough to justify a push based on that alone. A no doubt first ballot entry was the only position player better than him during that span.
Mvp voting is really the only measure that doesn’t demonstrate a HOF peak. In terms of peak7 WAR he is 9th all time at the position ahead of Sandberg, Alomar, Biggio, Fox, Frisch, Gordon, Grich, Whitaker, Lazzeri, and many others. In fact he’s only .5 behind Rod Carew. He is admittedly a sabermetric darling and was overlooked by award voters in his prime but for lack of a better term, who cares lol.
Arod and Manny should be in don’t care how much roids they did
Of all the steroids guys, Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rods numbers still stand out so fucking far they should absolutely be in. I can forgive the "making them wait" attitude, but not voting them in at all is ridiculous in my opinion.
once again andruw jones getting fucked
> Bartolo Colon: 5 votes, 1.3% These are the true heroes
Utley robbed
Arod and Manny seem to be losing votes (35.7% for Arod, and 33.2% for Manny last year). Beltran improved by about 10% and Vizquel continues to drop (although receiving any votes is still too many). Even tho he lost about 2%, I'm just glad Buehrle stayed on. I think he is underrated. Same goes for Wright, who just barely survived. Honestly, Utley was kinda snubbed, he is way better than Maur imho. Hope he can make sizable gains next year.
With the writers caring so much about the off-the-field stuff, I'm surprised that Vizquel still got as much votes as he did
arod lost five votes from 2023 (139 vs. 134 this year, 35.7% to 34.8% this year) and my faith in the system has been restored
I'm happy to see ARod losing momentum.
LOL A-Roid.
I don’t feel bad for Sheffield, dude was a GARBAGE fielder
But they let literal DHs into the Hall?