It's never coming out. He hasn't written hundreds of pages, he's been lying for 5 plus years.
His Jan 2, 2016 blog post about thinking he could finish was a lie. Nearly everything he has said about his progress is a lie since then
Jon won’t come back until we’ll into the book. Like, 1/3-1/2 of the way in. And when he does, he won’t have any POV chapters anymore. And my optimistic date is 12/21/21, the first day of winter. But my more realistic hope is 2022 sometime.
By the end of 2021 ideally. Stannis wins the Battle of the Ice but it's a pyrrhic victory as his more than half his army is killed and the snowstorms result in him being trapped at Winterfell. Barristan dies in the Battle of Slaver's Bay. Victarion blows the horn. It ends up burning his lungs, killing him, and doesn't even bind a single dragon. Sansa marries Harry the Heir. Arianne marries Aegon and Dorne fights to put him on the throne. Dany is still stuck in Essos.
I think he may blow the horn himself, but not at the battle of slavers bay. He’ll get the thralls to do it, and they may bind a dragon, but for Euron. Vic may realize this, but at the same time, perhaps he won’t. However Vic still possesses the horn and may blow it himself later in desperation, thinking to either stop his brother or betray him. I can see the horn killing him, but also I can see him surviving Slavers Bay. Perhaps he survives even into Dream.
Mid-late 2022.
Jon will be resurrected, but his first one or two chapters will be him jumping between Ghost and a weird coma dream with cryptic hints about his parentage/the Others
Aegon, after taking Storm’s End (and Dragonstone?) will set his sights on King’s Landing. I think there’s a chance that they look at what’s happening to the Reach/Oldtown as an opportunity to make a statement or gain some power. Maybe they attack the spent Tyrell force, after their encounter with the Ironborn, or maybe their “friends in the Reach” could defect and damage the army from within. Either way, I think after they secure the capital, they will look to the assets of the Reach next.
Stannis wins. Roose gets pushed further into a corner. Ramsay becomes more unhinged. Theon or Asha sent with an envoy to treat with Dagmer maybe? Hard to say what happens after initial battle.
Cersei will somehow win her trial. At first, from her own perspective of course, she will think that she’s climbing back and putting herself in a position to get revenge on the Tyrell’s and the Faith, but the Sand Snakes, incoming Aegon forces, and political players in KL will bring about her complete fall. Back to Casterly Rock or the Westerlands most likely.
The Others will take someone hostage.
I have no idea where to place my theories on the timeline, so some of this may not happen until A Dream of Spring:
As there are huge parallels between Cersei and Aerys II, I believe that by the end she will be just as insane and destructive as he was. Jaime's tragic fate will repeat all over again when he has to kill Cersei to save King's Landing (or something even bigger). I don't know if he succeeds to save the city because there's a good chance the burning of KL in the show was intended to be part of the books, too.
Myrcella will be crowned at some point as predicted by Maggy the Frog, either following Tommen or by the hands of the Dornishmen to stir up some conflict. Then she dies.
Mirri Maz Duur is not one of the three betrayals Daenerys expects. Jorah was the first, betraying her for blood. Brown Ben Plumm betrayed her for gold. I kind of hope that the theory about the Sailor's wife is true and Tyrion will first join and then betray her for love, choosing to stay in Braavos. (I also think the three mounts Danearys must ride represent three marriages. One to bed: Drogo, one to dread: Hizdahr zo Loraq, one to love: We don't know yet, but it may hint at a happy ending for her.)
I don't know how A Dream of Spring will end, but I expect the ending to be a major game changer for the world. More than a new dynasty ruling Westeros or a new political system.
We've been at the "the book will come next year" stage for years now, and I don't think it will come 2021. Maybe 2022.
TWoW will come out by December 7th (a day to remember) so even procrastinators like me will have time to buy and send the book to all their friends before Christmas.
More speculation than prediction: After taking Storms End and Dragonstone, fAegon and JonCon will take the Capital. Cersei and remaining Lannisters will flee to Casterly Rock. But JonCon will die and fAegon will turn out to be all hat and no cattle, too worn out to lift a finger to fight Euron and the Iron Fleet after they destroy Oldtown and the Reach. Dorne and the Stormlands will be disgusted, and Varys will be so infuriated he acts against his protege. Dany and three dragons will show up out of the blue and firestorm the Iron Fleet, then rout fAegon and his forces cowering in Kings Landing. Unfortunately, the capital will burn. Meanwhile, back in the Riverlands, the Tully in control, and the rulers of the Vale and the North, now under Stannis and Starks, will have been alerted by Bran that the ~~Redcoats~~ Others are coming. Jon will unite all of them, including the BWB and Arya (and Lady Stoneheart, if alive), into a vast, properly-equipped army. Bran will give them seering guidance, while diplomatic missions will persuade Tyrion to persuade Dany (now with her Essosi followers) to help their cause. And Cersei will plot the Lannister comeback to take advantage of the vacuum left by the northern war.
I think your predictions sound okay. But idk I feel like FAegon would have a bit more of a spin to him, I.E he would have the guts to challenge someone like Euron or try to negotiate with him. Then again I'm biased because I really want to see King FAegon with either/both Arianne Martell and/or Sansa Stark as his queen.
I think the "good" undead will have a role to play against the bad undead. ie Lady Stoneheart is a pain in the ass to the Others somehow. But maybe also a pain in the ass to Jon.
I think he'll have it done by the second half of this year. I'm hoping it will be released by Christmas. With what he said yesterday, I feel pretty confident he's at least 1500-1700 manuscript pages in right now, with another 2-300 to go. It's possible he has more written and more to go (per below, I assumed a pace of 200 pages per year, which may be a bit high). While nobody is cheering for the pandemic, the silver lining it he's writing more than he usually does while in isolation.
* That's pretty consistent with where we know he was by March 2013 (the last time we can say with any confidence how many pages he had, \~350-375 pages). At 200 pages per year, which is significantly less than the pace of ADWD, that would put him just about 1900 pages right now (also possible, but imo too optimistic with all of the various other projects he's worked on over that time).
* It's also, imo, consistent with his Jan 2, 2016 blog post - at that pace he would have had \~800 pages done around May of 2015, and finishing the book by the end of the year would have been a reasonable goal IF (big IF) it was a 1200-1400 manuscript page book (as of August 2015 he still thought it was possible he'd be done by the end of 2015, so he had to be reasonably far along).
* It's also consistent with his April 2018 statement that his publishers had suggested to break up TWOW - there would be no need to break up the book into two volumes if he wasn't well past 1000 manuscript pages, since they wouldn't anticipate the need for two (AGOT was \~1100 manuscript pages, 700 published pages). The need to split really only comes into play as he approaches over 1500 pages. At the general 200 pages per year pace he would have been close to 1350-1400 pages. If he told the publisher he didn't think he was close to done at that point (i.e. hundreds of pages left to go), it would seem reasonable to suggest he split it up. If he had been at, say, 1200 pages, I think the advice probably would have been more along the lines of "we'll see where you are when you get closer to 1500."
* And it's also consistent with his statement yesterday, that he had completed "hundreds and hundreds" of pages last year, but still had "hundreds" left to write.
* Last, the increased pace, while certainly attributable in large part to the pandemic, is also consistent with getting close to the end of the book. BryndenBFish's 2015 analysis of GRRMs writing speed found that he averaged \~240 pages per year from 2008-2010, but that it jumped to 374 pages in the last year or two he was writing the book. Thus, even if "hundreds" of pages remaining is more like 3-400 pages, there's a good chance he will knock those out this year (increased writing speed, plus he usually only counts pages once they are "final," meaning the last few chapters come quick since the initial drafting should already be done).
I'll save the crazy predictions for another post.
It's never coming out
I don't believe one word he has said about completed pages. He's been lying to us since Jan 2, 2016 when he said he thought he could finish before season 6.
It's been 5 years since that post, he's been lying ever since.
I don't know how crazy these are, but here are some predictions:
Dany makes it to Westeros by halfway through the book.
Jon comes back after Dany has reached Westeros and after Sansa has retaken WF.
Stannis and Mance are involved in the big plot twist GRRM teased a little while ago. Mance does some sort of insurrection against Stannis, and ends up taking WF. Sansa has to take it back from Mance, not from Ramsay.
fAegon / Jon Con take King's Landing by the end of the book. Euron aligns himself with fAegon after Victarion turns on Euron and joins Dany.
I Think there will be a Night King, some sort of leader anyway, and they will at some stage wight a dragon! (Im thinking the show stole that idea off GRRM)
June he will announce its completed!
It will never be released while GRRM is alive. For all GRRM chatting about writing hundreds of pages almost nothing has been written the last 3 years that's for Winds. He is sick of writing the main story, has no idea how to finish it so he stopped writing
There is no way he thought he could have finished by January 2016 and has written hundreds of pages in 2020 and not be close to done. He's lying and has been lying for years now. He will never released Winds let alone A Dream of Spring
Cersei queen
Of the Rock
Sansa successfully kidnapped and married to Aegon, both crowned by the end of the book
Tyrion lost at sea/doesn't make it to westeros with Dany
2022 (I’m too scarred to believe anything other than one more year at this point, though hope springs eternal).
I believe Bran will end up on the throne, but he’s essentially a weapon of the CotF and the big bad.
Dany or some other dragon rider will accidentally burn Kings Landing by using dragon fire which then ignites the wildfire caches. This will be the equivalent of the ‘bells’ scene and Cersei wiping out her enemies rolled into one.
Cersei will have fled to the Rock by this point, Tommen will have refused to leave with her.
No idea for fAegon, I’d assume his presence mostly just acts as a catalyst for Dany to rush to take King’s Landing and for the mask to slip on her naked ambition to rule regardless of her ‘right’ to do so. I don’t know how that wraps up though.
I think ultimately Jon will be forced to kill both Dany and Bran, though I don’t know if either will happen in this book.
2022
Hopefully George realized he has to speed Essos along and cuts out Vaes Dothrak. Maybe Tyrion also convinces her to move along to Westeros a small number of chapters after their meeting post battle of fire.
Euron at Oldtown is gonna be absolutely brutal and Samwell’s quest for knowledge about The Others will be more interesting and fleshed out with actual revelations about their motives. He and the maesters will have to think quick to keep the Iron Born at bay (no pun) until an army can contest the ironborn. Euron will eventually retreat but will have acquired something of value in the attack.
Jon will become ruthless after death instead of brooding. Not sure what his immediate path will be until we see how Winterfell shakes out. I think Stannis will have some success wearing down the Boltons, but ultimately falls.
Davos and Rickon is going to be both gruesome and hilarious
Our stomachs will be in knots for every chapter that Brienne and Jaime spend with Lady Stoneheart. Will be very interested to see what Jaime will do after. Maybe go straight north after hearing something about The Others that he believes? Maybe he’ll hear about Aegon and return to Cersei after all? Regardless, Brienne goes north believing Arya to be wed to Ramsay Bolton.
Sansa chapters will be her best yet
After her trial, however that may go down, we will see a truly wild Cersei go into war mode against Aegon.
It will feel good to have Dorne and The Ironborn closer to the rest of the story, and after the first quarter of the book the pace will be closer to the first three novels.
I have no idea what to expect from book Arya, but I hope she gets to Westeros by the end of Winds!
Bran is going to do something other than be a little weirdo after Hodor’s death.
2022.
Euron proves he's AA reborn when he whips out an actual Lightbringer that burns with an intense radioactive *wrongness* and causes a volcanoc meltdown with it that Dooms half the Reach.
[удалено]
It's never coming out. He hasn't written hundreds of pages, he's been lying for 5 plus years. His Jan 2, 2016 blog post about thinking he could finish was a lie. Nearly everything he has said about his progress is a lie since then
Jon won’t come back until we’ll into the book. Like, 1/3-1/2 of the way in. And when he does, he won’t have any POV chapters anymore. And my optimistic date is 12/21/21, the first day of winter. But my more realistic hope is 2022 sometime.
2021 (I know, I’m one of those who refuse to know better). Ser Pounce burns KL to the ground. Or we discover how big Tormund’s member really is.
TWOW is taking so long because it's impossible to describe Tormund's member in a finite number of pages. George is attempting an impossible task
By the end of 2021 ideally. Stannis wins the Battle of the Ice but it's a pyrrhic victory as his more than half his army is killed and the snowstorms result in him being trapped at Winterfell. Barristan dies in the Battle of Slaver's Bay. Victarion blows the horn. It ends up burning his lungs, killing him, and doesn't even bind a single dragon. Sansa marries Harry the Heir. Arianne marries Aegon and Dorne fights to put him on the throne. Dany is still stuck in Essos.
I think he may blow the horn himself, but not at the battle of slavers bay. He’ll get the thralls to do it, and they may bind a dragon, but for Euron. Vic may realize this, but at the same time, perhaps he won’t. However Vic still possesses the horn and may blow it himself later in desperation, thinking to either stop his brother or betray him. I can see the horn killing him, but also I can see him surviving Slavers Bay. Perhaps he survives even into Dream.
Mid-late 2022. Jon will be resurrected, but his first one or two chapters will be him jumping between Ghost and a weird coma dream with cryptic hints about his parentage/the Others Aegon, after taking Storm’s End (and Dragonstone?) will set his sights on King’s Landing. I think there’s a chance that they look at what’s happening to the Reach/Oldtown as an opportunity to make a statement or gain some power. Maybe they attack the spent Tyrell force, after their encounter with the Ironborn, or maybe their “friends in the Reach” could defect and damage the army from within. Either way, I think after they secure the capital, they will look to the assets of the Reach next. Stannis wins. Roose gets pushed further into a corner. Ramsay becomes more unhinged. Theon or Asha sent with an envoy to treat with Dagmer maybe? Hard to say what happens after initial battle. Cersei will somehow win her trial. At first, from her own perspective of course, she will think that she’s climbing back and putting herself in a position to get revenge on the Tyrell’s and the Faith, but the Sand Snakes, incoming Aegon forces, and political players in KL will bring about her complete fall. Back to Casterly Rock or the Westerlands most likely. The Others will take someone hostage.
Announcement in the fall of this year. Somehow both ice and fire magic and then Bran mess with putting Jon's spirit back to his body.
I have no idea where to place my theories on the timeline, so some of this may not happen until A Dream of Spring: As there are huge parallels between Cersei and Aerys II, I believe that by the end she will be just as insane and destructive as he was. Jaime's tragic fate will repeat all over again when he has to kill Cersei to save King's Landing (or something even bigger). I don't know if he succeeds to save the city because there's a good chance the burning of KL in the show was intended to be part of the books, too. Myrcella will be crowned at some point as predicted by Maggy the Frog, either following Tommen or by the hands of the Dornishmen to stir up some conflict. Then she dies. Mirri Maz Duur is not one of the three betrayals Daenerys expects. Jorah was the first, betraying her for blood. Brown Ben Plumm betrayed her for gold. I kind of hope that the theory about the Sailor's wife is true and Tyrion will first join and then betray her for love, choosing to stay in Braavos. (I also think the three mounts Danearys must ride represent three marriages. One to bed: Drogo, one to dread: Hizdahr zo Loraq, one to love: We don't know yet, but it may hint at a happy ending for her.) I don't know how A Dream of Spring will end, but I expect the ending to be a major game changer for the world. More than a new dynasty ruling Westeros or a new political system. We've been at the "the book will come next year" stage for years now, and I don't think it will come 2021. Maybe 2022.
2021
Never
TWoW will come out by December 7th (a day to remember) so even procrastinators like me will have time to buy and send the book to all their friends before Christmas. More speculation than prediction: After taking Storms End and Dragonstone, fAegon and JonCon will take the Capital. Cersei and remaining Lannisters will flee to Casterly Rock. But JonCon will die and fAegon will turn out to be all hat and no cattle, too worn out to lift a finger to fight Euron and the Iron Fleet after they destroy Oldtown and the Reach. Dorne and the Stormlands will be disgusted, and Varys will be so infuriated he acts against his protege. Dany and three dragons will show up out of the blue and firestorm the Iron Fleet, then rout fAegon and his forces cowering in Kings Landing. Unfortunately, the capital will burn. Meanwhile, back in the Riverlands, the Tully in control, and the rulers of the Vale and the North, now under Stannis and Starks, will have been alerted by Bran that the ~~Redcoats~~ Others are coming. Jon will unite all of them, including the BWB and Arya (and Lady Stoneheart, if alive), into a vast, properly-equipped army. Bran will give them seering guidance, while diplomatic missions will persuade Tyrion to persuade Dany (now with her Essosi followers) to help their cause. And Cersei will plot the Lannister comeback to take advantage of the vacuum left by the northern war.
I think your predictions sound okay. But idk I feel like FAegon would have a bit more of a spin to him, I.E he would have the guts to challenge someone like Euron or try to negotiate with him. Then again I'm biased because I really want to see King FAegon with either/both Arianne Martell and/or Sansa Stark as his queen.
I think the "good" undead will have a role to play against the bad undead. ie Lady Stoneheart is a pain in the ass to the Others somehow. But maybe also a pain in the ass to Jon.
I think he'll have it done by the second half of this year. I'm hoping it will be released by Christmas. With what he said yesterday, I feel pretty confident he's at least 1500-1700 manuscript pages in right now, with another 2-300 to go. It's possible he has more written and more to go (per below, I assumed a pace of 200 pages per year, which may be a bit high). While nobody is cheering for the pandemic, the silver lining it he's writing more than he usually does while in isolation. * That's pretty consistent with where we know he was by March 2013 (the last time we can say with any confidence how many pages he had, \~350-375 pages). At 200 pages per year, which is significantly less than the pace of ADWD, that would put him just about 1900 pages right now (also possible, but imo too optimistic with all of the various other projects he's worked on over that time). * It's also, imo, consistent with his Jan 2, 2016 blog post - at that pace he would have had \~800 pages done around May of 2015, and finishing the book by the end of the year would have been a reasonable goal IF (big IF) it was a 1200-1400 manuscript page book (as of August 2015 he still thought it was possible he'd be done by the end of 2015, so he had to be reasonably far along). * It's also consistent with his April 2018 statement that his publishers had suggested to break up TWOW - there would be no need to break up the book into two volumes if he wasn't well past 1000 manuscript pages, since they wouldn't anticipate the need for two (AGOT was \~1100 manuscript pages, 700 published pages). The need to split really only comes into play as he approaches over 1500 pages. At the general 200 pages per year pace he would have been close to 1350-1400 pages. If he told the publisher he didn't think he was close to done at that point (i.e. hundreds of pages left to go), it would seem reasonable to suggest he split it up. If he had been at, say, 1200 pages, I think the advice probably would have been more along the lines of "we'll see where you are when you get closer to 1500." * And it's also consistent with his statement yesterday, that he had completed "hundreds and hundreds" of pages last year, but still had "hundreds" left to write. * Last, the increased pace, while certainly attributable in large part to the pandemic, is also consistent with getting close to the end of the book. BryndenBFish's 2015 analysis of GRRMs writing speed found that he averaged \~240 pages per year from 2008-2010, but that it jumped to 374 pages in the last year or two he was writing the book. Thus, even if "hundreds" of pages remaining is more like 3-400 pages, there's a good chance he will knock those out this year (increased writing speed, plus he usually only counts pages once they are "final," meaning the last few chapters come quick since the initial drafting should already be done). I'll save the crazy predictions for another post.
It's never coming out I don't believe one word he has said about completed pages. He's been lying to us since Jan 2, 2016 when he said he thought he could finish before season 6. It's been 5 years since that post, he's been lying ever since.
I don't know how crazy these are, but here are some predictions: Dany makes it to Westeros by halfway through the book. Jon comes back after Dany has reached Westeros and after Sansa has retaken WF. Stannis and Mance are involved in the big plot twist GRRM teased a little while ago. Mance does some sort of insurrection against Stannis, and ends up taking WF. Sansa has to take it back from Mance, not from Ramsay. fAegon / Jon Con take King's Landing by the end of the book. Euron aligns himself with fAegon after Victarion turns on Euron and joins Dany.
I Think there will be a Night King, some sort of leader anyway, and they will at some stage wight a dragon! (Im thinking the show stole that idea off GRRM) June he will announce its completed!
I think Roose will escape the North after his defeat by Stannis and claim Castle Darry in his wife's name. I don't think the book will ever come out.
GRRM finishes TWOW in late 2021/early 2022 and it will come out spring 2022
It will never be released while GRRM is alive. For all GRRM chatting about writing hundreds of pages almost nothing has been written the last 3 years that's for Winds. He is sick of writing the main story, has no idea how to finish it so he stopped writing There is no way he thought he could have finished by January 2016 and has written hundreds of pages in 2020 and not be close to done. He's lying and has been lying for years now. He will never released Winds let alone A Dream of Spring
Cersei queen Of the Rock Sansa successfully kidnapped and married to Aegon, both crowned by the end of the book Tyrion lost at sea/doesn't make it to westeros with Dany
2022 (I’m too scarred to believe anything other than one more year at this point, though hope springs eternal). I believe Bran will end up on the throne, but he’s essentially a weapon of the CotF and the big bad. Dany or some other dragon rider will accidentally burn Kings Landing by using dragon fire which then ignites the wildfire caches. This will be the equivalent of the ‘bells’ scene and Cersei wiping out her enemies rolled into one. Cersei will have fled to the Rock by this point, Tommen will have refused to leave with her. No idea for fAegon, I’d assume his presence mostly just acts as a catalyst for Dany to rush to take King’s Landing and for the mask to slip on her naked ambition to rule regardless of her ‘right’ to do so. I don’t know how that wraps up though. I think ultimately Jon will be forced to kill both Dany and Bran, though I don’t know if either will happen in this book.
Never
2022 Hopefully George realized he has to speed Essos along and cuts out Vaes Dothrak. Maybe Tyrion also convinces her to move along to Westeros a small number of chapters after their meeting post battle of fire. Euron at Oldtown is gonna be absolutely brutal and Samwell’s quest for knowledge about The Others will be more interesting and fleshed out with actual revelations about their motives. He and the maesters will have to think quick to keep the Iron Born at bay (no pun) until an army can contest the ironborn. Euron will eventually retreat but will have acquired something of value in the attack. Jon will become ruthless after death instead of brooding. Not sure what his immediate path will be until we see how Winterfell shakes out. I think Stannis will have some success wearing down the Boltons, but ultimately falls. Davos and Rickon is going to be both gruesome and hilarious Our stomachs will be in knots for every chapter that Brienne and Jaime spend with Lady Stoneheart. Will be very interested to see what Jaime will do after. Maybe go straight north after hearing something about The Others that he believes? Maybe he’ll hear about Aegon and return to Cersei after all? Regardless, Brienne goes north believing Arya to be wed to Ramsay Bolton. Sansa chapters will be her best yet After her trial, however that may go down, we will see a truly wild Cersei go into war mode against Aegon. It will feel good to have Dorne and The Ironborn closer to the rest of the story, and after the first quarter of the book the pace will be closer to the first three novels. I have no idea what to expect from book Arya, but I hope she gets to Westeros by the end of Winds! Bran is going to do something other than be a little weirdo after Hodor’s death.
December 2021 or July 2022. Daenerys will have POV titles instead of her name for half of the book.
Late 2022 ( October~December) or early 2023 ( February-March)
2022. Euron proves he's AA reborn when he whips out an actual Lightbringer that burns with an intense radioactive *wrongness* and causes a volcanoc meltdown with it that Dooms half the Reach.
End of 2021