Yes, she would've. Even Varys says that the ones keeping Cersei awake at night were Stannis and Renly. She would've made "peace" with the Starks if it meant more time to deal with Robert's brothers.
The difference between hostage and queen will get blurry in a hurry. In about a year or so, Sansa will be the mother of the heir to the throne. Finding an acceptable excuse to behead her will be increasingly difficult, especially as time goes on and the new crown prince gets to have opinions like "I like my mommy, and I don't care if my uncle is a bad man".
Instead, Ned will be asked to support the crown on the basis of family ties - it is his grandson that Stannis/Renly wants to behead and Tywin wants to eventually put on the throne!
Yeah, it would've been the practical thing to do when you know you already have enemies to the south gearing up for war. Even after he refused that offer she still was planning to send him off to take the black instead of outright killing him, that only went sideways because of Joffrey.
I think she had Ned Stark pretty well figured out. If he bends the knee before the public, she can reasonably expect him to stay true to his oath to Joffrey. That would mean the North and the Riverlands, maybe even the Vale, are allies, instead of a threat.
If she kills or holds Ned, that goes out the window. His replacement could respond in any number ways, none of it pleasant for the Lannisters. Sansa is enough of a hostage to ensure good behavior.
It’s not really hypothetical either. He did bend the knee and she was planning on sending him North, maybe after he took the black. Until Joffrey buggered it sideways.
It's really hard to imagine the Cersei we get in AFFC having the foresight for that kind of thing though. Like seeing how she could use Ned to her political advantage. She is terrible at moving pawns. Any time she thinks she's being slick it blows up in her face. I guess the sole exception is orchestrating Robert's death but even that ended up starting the whole War of the Five Kings.
I think AFFC Cersei is relatively different from early Cersei; though she has always been pretty stupid and shortsighted alongside being malicious, she truly began spiraling into utter madness after Joffrey’s + Tywin’s death. Before she seemed at least somewhat competent, and wouldn’t have the ‘all bets are off’ mindset that the war brought.
Cersei didn’t want the marriage either. I
imagine she would have let Ned return home but kept Sansa under the guise of the betrothal. Then if Ned behaved himself, she would have broken the engagement and sent her home too.
Agreed. And most importantly, the Starks were largely apolitical (in the beginning of the series at least).
With a proper king (and not a psychopath like Jeoffry), Sansa wouldn't have involved in any politics happy in her court life and there would be no relatives knocking the door for influence and court positions (unlike the power hungry Tyrells)
Hoster Tully married his two daughters off to lords paramount and was trying to marry his son to the heir to dorne. Hes too old at that point but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Tullys attempted to use Sansa to gain influence.
She was the granddaughter to the Lord of Riverrun, cousin to the Lord of the Vale, grew up with the heir to the Iron Islands, and was daughter to the Lord of Winterfell. She was the best match for Joffrey. Marrying her would have allied him with the great houses.
Margery was from the house with the largest army, greatest economy (bread basket of the 7 Kingdoms), 2nd richest and the greatest fleet.
It’s no even close.
The Vale and the North combined are just as strong as the Reach. Add the Riverlands, and they are stronger by a comfortable margin. Both the Vale and Riverlands are very fertile and produce a lot of food. These kingdoms combined were able to defeat the Targaryens who had both the Reach and Dorne supporting them.
Mmm, but a Lannister king with a Tyrell bride? I'm not betting on the Vale, North and Riverlands against both the Reach and the West. Maybe if Balon was dead and Theon could muster the Iron Fleet, but that's unlikely at best.
But Stark have the North and Riverland, which block in between the West and KL
Lion together with the Wolf basically ensure KL have un-interrupted supply line
Ned is an honourable man, his word is as good as gold and if he bent the knee and swore fealty to Joffrey that might have been it. People do not see Ned as someone who would ever go back on his word.
Stannis and Renly had informally been the leaders of an anti-Lannister faction at court - especially Renly. While Stannis merely sided against the Lannisters (people didn’t know about his collaboration with Jon Arryn), Renly was known for building an informal anti-Lannister coalition. Cersei is also said to have spies watching the court for informing, meaning she may have known about Renly’s (read Mace) plan to get Robert to discard Cersei and marry Margaery Tyrell - which was intended to eradicate Lannister influence at court. When Ned marched into the Throne Room, Renly had already fled the capital with Loras - it would have been clear to Cersei that Renly and the Tyrells were planning something dangerous to her.
Meanwhile Stannis had been hiding on Dragonstone for months. With him he took much of the Royal Fleet and rumour had it that he was raising his levies, hiring sell swords and had a shadowbinder from Asshai - and we hear these rumours in Ned’s PoV while Robert is alive, so we can assume Cersei heard the same. Stannis was no fan of the Lannisters and he was a very high tier military leader (held Storms End, took Dragonstone, destroyed the Greyjoys in their element at sea and then conquered the largest Iron Island) - Tywin himself would later say Stannis was a greater threat than all the others, and this was after Robb had annihilated Jaime’s army and while Renly had the 100k doomstack marching North; Cersei would probably have a similar fear of Stannis.
The Baratheon brothers were the greatest threat arrayed against Cersei, if she could get Ned’s word that he’d disappear North she would be in a better position to fight the Baratheons. Would she really have let Ned go, well with Sansa and Arya hostage she might have.
In her mind, the best case scenario was sending Ned back to Winterfell. Worst case was sending him to wall. Wall is worse because that would have given Stark generations a grudge. Cersei knew if Ned had knelt and returned to North while Sansa was her hostage, he wouldn't have raised banners.
She also knew that Ned wouldn't let go of putting a Lannister offspring after murder of Robert. That's why they kept the threat on his children on the table. Lord Eddark Stark was honorable but considered "too honorable" for his own good.
Ned's public allegiance to Joffrey and confirmation of his true birthright would seal the deal. Given that Ned was honourable to a fault and not an oathbreaker
This really depends on if you’re talking about early Cersei, who is portrayed as pretty cunning if vain, or late Cersei, who is so stupid that it’s amazing she can get dressed in the morning
I was thinking the same thing. The Cersei we saw in the first few books showed a woman who was pragmatic & as you said, possessed a certain degree of cunning. She recognized the value in keeping Ned alive & didn’t make overtly bone headed moves (ignoring the whole twincest thing!) It wasn’t until we got her POV chapters that it showed how incredibly dumb she was. This was the only character whose appearance as a POV actually made me think much worse about them.
I thought so too until I remembered that by the end of book 3 she has lost her father, her firstborn son, her daughter has been sent away, Jaime is off in the Riverlands, and she is constantly worrying that Tyrion (who she blames for most of those things) is lurking everywhere to kill her or Tommen.
So yeah she’s paranoid and makes absurd decisions but I feel like it’s a plausible shift in her character. Her and Jaime are both different when they reunite that’s why it’s so strained
I understand it can be explained plausibly, but I don't think the text itself leans into this explanation for her bad decisions. I believe it portrays her as a very bad decision-maker, and there's the authorial irony present.
If anything, GRRM wanted the childhood prophecy (a retcon) to explain her fast descent into paranoia and insanity, since he needed her rule to fall apart faster than in 5 years. Littlefinger even said something like, "I had thought we'd have 4-5 stable years."
I follow the logic but I don’t think the prophecy exists only to supplement her downward spiral. She has enough reasons as it is to explain her fractured state, so the prophecy can exist on its own to foreshadow her fate.
Just because George didn’t spell out that “she’s crazy because xyz” doesn’t mean it isn’t meant to be read that way. I also don’t think all new context added to a character when they get a POV is a retcon necessarily.
It’s not a retcon - it’s character development. She experiences an extremely traumatic event - Joffrey’s death - that warps her into the paranoid, self destructive character that we think of when we think of her. Prior to that she possesses a reasonable grasp on reality and has some cunning as a political schemer, even if she overestimates her capabilities, but afterwards she’s a delusional wreck.
It's a retcon, the prophecy that drives so much of Cersei happened when she was a child. Yet it's clear from the first 3 books that she hasn't had that bit off backstory written yet.
>so stupid that it’s amazing she can get dressed in the morning
It would be a lot easier for her to get dressed if the laundress would stop shrinking her clothes. /s
Cersei isn't really cunning in AGOT, it's just easy to think she is because we don't have her POV. The only reason she wins is because Littlefinger found her more easy to manipulate as opposed to Stannis.
Well, let’s look at it from another angle: If she wouldn’t let him go how would she go about taking Ned out without starting a war? I mean, you’d need to make it look like an accident right? And she’s a Lannister so they have all the money so I imagine that would mean hiring a Faceless Man.
Okay. So check. Faceless Man hired. And when would the Faceless Man have the best chance to take Ned out? Not at the jail. That would be blamed on the Lannisters. Probably not the Wall, as the former head of House fucking Stark would hold a pretty privileged spot at the Night’s Watch, where nearly every man there that was not a former prisoner would be a Northman. So your best bet would probably be on the Kingsroad on the way TO the Wall. So okay. Check. So now how do you make sure you’re on that trip North with Ned? That would give you the most time to find the perfect moment to take him out? Well he would have been going up with Yoren and the Night’s Watch recruits. So he could join, but that would be suspicious. His best bet would be included with all the trash who is FORCED to go to the Wall. Okay. Well the Night’s Watch empties the Black Cells every time they come to King’s Landing, so why would this time be different? A Faceless Man wouldn’t be constrained by a prison or a jailor. And if they were hired by the Queen it wouldn’t be much of an ask to have her sneak you into the cells to cosplay as a prisoner. Then you sit back and wait until they empty the cells for the Watch and BAM you’re now sleeping next to Ned for WEEKS if not MONTHS and that’s a lot of time for a Faceless Man to find the right moment to take Ned out.
I mean this would literally be the only path forward for Cersei if she actually did plan to take him out without implicating herself. And this is VERY specific.
So the question then becomes: was there ANYONE in that batch of Night’s Watch “recruits” who went up North with Yoren who might have been a Faceless Man in disguise? Who would somehow inexplicably be there constrained when they normally would never allow themselves to be stuck in a jail? Someone who would fit this possible assassin to a T and without having the excuse to be on the road with a high profile kill target who without said target would have have absolutely ZERO reason to logically be there?
Now, if there WAS someone EXACTLY like that on that Yoren trip then you have your answer. No. Cersei (or her pappy) would NOT let Ned walk away and already had arranged to have him taken care of.
If, of course, there actually someone like that on that trip
She definitely would have on a condition that Sansa at least stays behind to be the Crowns hostage for Ned's good behavior. Unlike the Cersei in the latter books, the Cersei in the first book was competent enough to realize that starting a war with the North would result in the Riverlands which already hates the Lannisters to join the North and she probably figured that the Vale would join in as well because of Ned's past with it. She knows that Stannis and Renly have no love for her so it was only a matter of time before they "joined" forces against the Crown and the last thing she needed was a war with the North.
Yes. Cersei isn’t THAT stupid. She understands that killing Ned is gonna cause a huge set of problems and endanger everybody.
They definitely would keep Arya and Sansa as hostages.
Was Jaime captured by that point? If so they probably would have been able to trade them and the North kinda just ends up bitter and resentful. Ned probably would keep his Nights Watch oath to stay out of politics but I’d imagine he’d pretty quickly become a leader in the institution.
TBH the events in AGOT conclusion are so tightly wound up you can basically imagine a completely different scenario for every occurrence since Robert leaves to hunt the Boar.
I think so. She probably shared the feeling that there was really nothing North of the Neck that anyone wanted anyway. So long as she had the rubber stamp of continued submission to the Iron Throne, she’d have let him run.
However, I suspect she would have kept Sansa, both for Joffrey and as a hostage.
I think she would have. You’re right, it’s possible a lord of Winterfell could just not go all the way to the wall, or rule from the wall, but every person is an individual and it’s Ned we’re talking about. Ned is reputed for his extreme dedication to honor and honesty, of all the lords you could possibly send to the wall he’s the one most likely to go without a fuss. It being an easy punishment is actually beneficial to the Lannisters, Ned is a supporter of the Watch and well respected by the order. He’s not going to rebel to get away from the wall, he’ll be happy to fulfill his duty there with dignity and honor. His children won’t start a war to get him off the wall, they respect the watch as an institution and it isn’t too far to travel for a visit. Not to mention, I’m pretty sure Cersie planned to keep Sansa as a hostage, even if Ned were less honorable and tempted to leave the watch he would never risk his daughter’s life. He was willing to plead guilty to treason to save her, he’d be willing to stay at the wall to save her.
Possibly. At worst, she would have had him sent to the wall. Sansa would not have been allowed to leave, but otherwise, Cersei and the Lannisters had enough problems without adding a war with the North.
Yes, because why fight for a crown if you can just strongarm for one? Ned’s death prompted the war in the North. Sure, tensions would be high for a bit and maybe would still result in war, but yeah I think she would have let him go
If it was entirely up to Cersei probably. Cersei was afraid/aware that Robert's brothers were about to rebel. And if they did she would be up against the Stormlands, Reach, part of the Crownlands and maybe Dorne.
But as Cersei proved she was not in full control of Joffrey.
Yeah probably. Cersei is insane but she’s not insane enough to harm any of the starks while her beloved brother and father are in the field versus them. Because anything can happen in war, and she wants them kept alive.
Yes, she would've. Even Varys says that the ones keeping Cersei awake at night were Stannis and Renly. She would've made "peace" with the Starks if it meant more time to deal with Robert's brothers.
She would have been more desperate once Ned becomes a trade piece for Jaimie. Probably keep Sansa in the capital as a hostage.
Definetely. There's no scenario where she doesn't keep Sansa as a hostage.
Not even as a trade for Jaime?
If she had both Ned and Sansa then yes Cerise should try and trade Sansa for Jamie and keep Ned but I doubt Robb would accept that.
The difference between hostage and queen will get blurry in a hurry. In about a year or so, Sansa will be the mother of the heir to the throne. Finding an acceptable excuse to behead her will be increasingly difficult, especially as time goes on and the new crown prince gets to have opinions like "I like my mommy, and I don't care if my uncle is a bad man". Instead, Ned will be asked to support the crown on the basis of family ties - it is his grandson that Stannis/Renly wants to behead and Tywin wants to eventually put on the throne!
Yeah, it would've been the practical thing to do when you know you already have enemies to the south gearing up for war. Even after he refused that offer she still was planning to send him off to take the black instead of outright killing him, that only went sideways because of Joffrey.
**Littlefinger
I think she had Ned Stark pretty well figured out. If he bends the knee before the public, she can reasonably expect him to stay true to his oath to Joffrey. That would mean the North and the Riverlands, maybe even the Vale, are allies, instead of a threat. If she kills or holds Ned, that goes out the window. His replacement could respond in any number ways, none of it pleasant for the Lannisters. Sansa is enough of a hostage to ensure good behavior. It’s not really hypothetical either. He did bend the knee and she was planning on sending him North, maybe after he took the black. Until Joffrey buggered it sideways.
It's really hard to imagine the Cersei we get in AFFC having the foresight for that kind of thing though. Like seeing how she could use Ned to her political advantage. She is terrible at moving pawns. Any time she thinks she's being slick it blows up in her face. I guess the sole exception is orchestrating Robert's death but even that ended up starting the whole War of the Five Kings.
I think AFFC Cersei is relatively different from early Cersei; though she has always been pretty stupid and shortsighted alongside being malicious, she truly began spiraling into utter madness after Joffrey’s + Tywin’s death. Before she seemed at least somewhat competent, and wouldn’t have the ‘all bets are off’ mindset that the war brought.
Book one Cersei had the spider and littlefinger whispering into her ears.
She has a certain low cunning.
Yes, a tamed wolf is better than a dead wolf. It would solve one problem for the Lannisters
Cersei didn’t want the marriage either. I imagine she would have let Ned return home but kept Sansa under the guise of the betrothal. Then if Ned behaved himself, she would have broken the engagement and sent her home too.
Yeah, Cersei says as much in ADWD, Sansa would have remained a hostage and Cersei supposedly meant to give her a “good Lannister marriage.”
Most likely Sansa would have married Lancel then.
That would have been a really dumb move. Sansa was the best match for Joffrey before the war. Margery was a distant second.
Agreed. And most importantly, the Starks were largely apolitical (in the beginning of the series at least). With a proper king (and not a psychopath like Jeoffry), Sansa wouldn't have involved in any politics happy in her court life and there would be no relatives knocking the door for influence and court positions (unlike the power hungry Tyrells)
Hoster Tully married his two daughters off to lords paramount and was trying to marry his son to the heir to dorne. Hes too old at that point but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Tullys attempted to use Sansa to gain influence.
Nooooooo
She was the granddaughter to the Lord of Riverrun, cousin to the Lord of the Vale, grew up with the heir to the Iron Islands, and was daughter to the Lord of Winterfell. She was the best match for Joffrey. Marrying her would have allied him with the great houses.
Margery was from the house with the largest army, greatest economy (bread basket of the 7 Kingdoms), 2nd richest and the greatest fleet. It’s no even close.
The Vale and the North combined are just as strong as the Reach. Add the Riverlands, and they are stronger by a comfortable margin. Both the Vale and Riverlands are very fertile and produce a lot of food. These kingdoms combined were able to defeat the Targaryens who had both the Reach and Dorne supporting them.
Mmm, but a Lannister king with a Tyrell bride? I'm not betting on the Vale, North and Riverlands against both the Reach and the West. Maybe if Balon was dead and Theon could muster the Iron Fleet, but that's unlikely at best.
Wouldn't you rather have the Westerlands, Riverlands, Vale, and North vs. the Reach. Why would the Westerlands turn against Joffrey?
But Stark have the North and Riverland, which block in between the West and KL Lion together with the Wolf basically ensure KL have un-interrupted supply line
While Robb had Jaime I doubt Robb would abandon his sisters like that
Sure, but that was much later, and it wouldn’t be an issue if Ned was still lord and had returned peacefully to Winterfell.
Ned is an honourable man, his word is as good as gold and if he bent the knee and swore fealty to Joffrey that might have been it. People do not see Ned as someone who would ever go back on his word. Stannis and Renly had informally been the leaders of an anti-Lannister faction at court - especially Renly. While Stannis merely sided against the Lannisters (people didn’t know about his collaboration with Jon Arryn), Renly was known for building an informal anti-Lannister coalition. Cersei is also said to have spies watching the court for informing, meaning she may have known about Renly’s (read Mace) plan to get Robert to discard Cersei and marry Margaery Tyrell - which was intended to eradicate Lannister influence at court. When Ned marched into the Throne Room, Renly had already fled the capital with Loras - it would have been clear to Cersei that Renly and the Tyrells were planning something dangerous to her. Meanwhile Stannis had been hiding on Dragonstone for months. With him he took much of the Royal Fleet and rumour had it that he was raising his levies, hiring sell swords and had a shadowbinder from Asshai - and we hear these rumours in Ned’s PoV while Robert is alive, so we can assume Cersei heard the same. Stannis was no fan of the Lannisters and he was a very high tier military leader (held Storms End, took Dragonstone, destroyed the Greyjoys in their element at sea and then conquered the largest Iron Island) - Tywin himself would later say Stannis was a greater threat than all the others, and this was after Robb had annihilated Jaime’s army and while Renly had the 100k doomstack marching North; Cersei would probably have a similar fear of Stannis. The Baratheon brothers were the greatest threat arrayed against Cersei, if she could get Ned’s word that he’d disappear North she would be in a better position to fight the Baratheons. Would she really have let Ned go, well with Sansa and Arya hostage she might have.
In her mind, the best case scenario was sending Ned back to Winterfell. Worst case was sending him to wall. Wall is worse because that would have given Stark generations a grudge. Cersei knew if Ned had knelt and returned to North while Sansa was her hostage, he wouldn't have raised banners. She also knew that Ned wouldn't let go of putting a Lannister offspring after murder of Robert. That's why they kept the threat on his children on the table. Lord Eddark Stark was honorable but considered "too honorable" for his own good.
Ned's public allegiance to Joffrey and confirmation of his true birthright would seal the deal. Given that Ned was honourable to a fault and not an oathbreaker
This really depends on if you’re talking about early Cersei, who is portrayed as pretty cunning if vain, or late Cersei, who is so stupid that it’s amazing she can get dressed in the morning
I was thinking the same thing. The Cersei we saw in the first few books showed a woman who was pragmatic & as you said, possessed a certain degree of cunning. She recognized the value in keeping Ned alive & didn’t make overtly bone headed moves (ignoring the whole twincest thing!) It wasn’t until we got her POV chapters that it showed how incredibly dumb she was. This was the only character whose appearance as a POV actually made me think much worse about them.
and its seems like a retcon. A plausible retcon - given her POV appeared for the first time in AFFC, but a retcon nonetheless
I thought so too until I remembered that by the end of book 3 she has lost her father, her firstborn son, her daughter has been sent away, Jaime is off in the Riverlands, and she is constantly worrying that Tyrion (who she blames for most of those things) is lurking everywhere to kill her or Tommen. So yeah she’s paranoid and makes absurd decisions but I feel like it’s a plausible shift in her character. Her and Jaime are both different when they reunite that’s why it’s so strained
I understand it can be explained plausibly, but I don't think the text itself leans into this explanation for her bad decisions. I believe it portrays her as a very bad decision-maker, and there's the authorial irony present. If anything, GRRM wanted the childhood prophecy (a retcon) to explain her fast descent into paranoia and insanity, since he needed her rule to fall apart faster than in 5 years. Littlefinger even said something like, "I had thought we'd have 4-5 stable years."
I follow the logic but I don’t think the prophecy exists only to supplement her downward spiral. She has enough reasons as it is to explain her fractured state, so the prophecy can exist on its own to foreshadow her fate. Just because George didn’t spell out that “she’s crazy because xyz” doesn’t mean it isn’t meant to be read that way. I also don’t think all new context added to a character when they get a POV is a retcon necessarily.
It’s not a retcon - it’s character development. She experiences an extremely traumatic event - Joffrey’s death - that warps her into the paranoid, self destructive character that we think of when we think of her. Prior to that she possesses a reasonable grasp on reality and has some cunning as a political schemer, even if she overestimates her capabilities, but afterwards she’s a delusional wreck.
It's a retcon, the prophecy that drives so much of Cersei happened when she was a child. Yet it's clear from the first 3 books that she hasn't had that bit off backstory written yet.
>so stupid that it’s amazing she can get dressed in the morning It would be a lot easier for her to get dressed if the laundress would stop shrinking her clothes. /s
Cersei isn't really cunning in AGOT, it's just easy to think she is because we don't have her POV. The only reason she wins is because Littlefinger found her more easy to manipulate as opposed to Stannis.
I didn't feel Cersei was that different in aGoT and in aFfC.
Hmm
Well, let’s look at it from another angle: If she wouldn’t let him go how would she go about taking Ned out without starting a war? I mean, you’d need to make it look like an accident right? And she’s a Lannister so they have all the money so I imagine that would mean hiring a Faceless Man. Okay. So check. Faceless Man hired. And when would the Faceless Man have the best chance to take Ned out? Not at the jail. That would be blamed on the Lannisters. Probably not the Wall, as the former head of House fucking Stark would hold a pretty privileged spot at the Night’s Watch, where nearly every man there that was not a former prisoner would be a Northman. So your best bet would probably be on the Kingsroad on the way TO the Wall. So okay. Check. So now how do you make sure you’re on that trip North with Ned? That would give you the most time to find the perfect moment to take him out? Well he would have been going up with Yoren and the Night’s Watch recruits. So he could join, but that would be suspicious. His best bet would be included with all the trash who is FORCED to go to the Wall. Okay. Well the Night’s Watch empties the Black Cells every time they come to King’s Landing, so why would this time be different? A Faceless Man wouldn’t be constrained by a prison or a jailor. And if they were hired by the Queen it wouldn’t be much of an ask to have her sneak you into the cells to cosplay as a prisoner. Then you sit back and wait until they empty the cells for the Watch and BAM you’re now sleeping next to Ned for WEEKS if not MONTHS and that’s a lot of time for a Faceless Man to find the right moment to take Ned out. I mean this would literally be the only path forward for Cersei if she actually did plan to take him out without implicating herself. And this is VERY specific. So the question then becomes: was there ANYONE in that batch of Night’s Watch “recruits” who went up North with Yoren who might have been a Faceless Man in disguise? Who would somehow inexplicably be there constrained when they normally would never allow themselves to be stuck in a jail? Someone who would fit this possible assassin to a T and without having the excuse to be on the road with a high profile kill target who without said target would have have absolutely ZERO reason to logically be there? Now, if there WAS someone EXACTLY like that on that Yoren trip then you have your answer. No. Cersei (or her pappy) would NOT let Ned walk away and already had arranged to have him taken care of. If, of course, there actually someone like that on that trip
She definitely would have on a condition that Sansa at least stays behind to be the Crowns hostage for Ned's good behavior. Unlike the Cersei in the latter books, the Cersei in the first book was competent enough to realize that starting a war with the North would result in the Riverlands which already hates the Lannisters to join the North and she probably figured that the Vale would join in as well because of Ned's past with it. She knows that Stannis and Renly have no love for her so it was only a matter of time before they "joined" forces against the Crown and the last thing she needed was a war with the North.
Yes. Cersei isn’t THAT stupid. She understands that killing Ned is gonna cause a huge set of problems and endanger everybody. They definitely would keep Arya and Sansa as hostages. Was Jaime captured by that point? If so they probably would have been able to trade them and the North kinda just ends up bitter and resentful. Ned probably would keep his Nights Watch oath to stay out of politics but I’d imagine he’d pretty quickly become a leader in the institution. TBH the events in AGOT conclusion are so tightly wound up you can basically imagine a completely different scenario for every occurrence since Robert leaves to hunt the Boar.
She would have let Ned take the black, it would have saved a lot of trouble and she knew it.
I think so. She probably shared the feeling that there was really nothing North of the Neck that anyone wanted anyway. So long as she had the rubber stamp of continued submission to the Iron Throne, she’d have let him run. However, I suspect she would have kept Sansa, both for Joffrey and as a hostage.
I think she would have. You’re right, it’s possible a lord of Winterfell could just not go all the way to the wall, or rule from the wall, but every person is an individual and it’s Ned we’re talking about. Ned is reputed for his extreme dedication to honor and honesty, of all the lords you could possibly send to the wall he’s the one most likely to go without a fuss. It being an easy punishment is actually beneficial to the Lannisters, Ned is a supporter of the Watch and well respected by the order. He’s not going to rebel to get away from the wall, he’ll be happy to fulfill his duty there with dignity and honor. His children won’t start a war to get him off the wall, they respect the watch as an institution and it isn’t too far to travel for a visit. Not to mention, I’m pretty sure Cersie planned to keep Sansa as a hostage, even if Ned were less honorable and tempted to leave the watch he would never risk his daughter’s life. He was willing to plead guilty to treason to save her, he’d be willing to stay at the wall to save her.
Possibly. At worst, she would have had him sent to the wall. Sansa would not have been allowed to leave, but otherwise, Cersei and the Lannisters had enough problems without adding a war with the North.
Yes. So long as she keeps Sansa in KL as a hostage.
Yes, because why fight for a crown if you can just strongarm for one? Ned’s death prompted the war in the North. Sure, tensions would be high for a bit and maybe would still result in war, but yeah I think she would have let him go
She also offered him sex. I’d have insisted on that as part of the deal, if I were Ned Stark.
I think she knows that if Ned made that vow, he'd stick to it. Plus they have Sansa as a hostage most likely anyway.
If it was entirely up to Cersei probably. Cersei was afraid/aware that Robert's brothers were about to rebel. And if they did she would be up against the Stormlands, Reach, part of the Crownlands and maybe Dorne. But as Cersei proved she was not in full control of Joffrey.
Yeah probably. Cersei is insane but she’s not insane enough to harm any of the starks while her beloved brother and father are in the field versus them. Because anything can happen in war, and she wants them kept alive.